Clayton, MO Business District Master Plan 2010 - Retail Analysis

8/14/2019 Clayton, MO Business District Master Plan 2010 - Retail Analysis

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ERA / AECOM

Reta il Ma rket Dema nd Id entify sourc es of d em and ma rkets

Assess spend ing pote ntia l of markets by reta il c a teg ory and store type

Determine the po rtion of this spend ing that c ould p otentia lly be spent inthe CBD c ap ture rate

Use a verage re ta il p rod uc tivities (sales/ sf) to estima te the a mo unt ofsup porta b le sf.

Assess d em a nd for ma jor reta il sto re typ es: ConvenienceFood and Beverage Stores & Drug/ Personal Care Stores Shoppers GoodsGeneral Merchandise, Apparel, Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, & Music Stores, Furniture/ Home

Furnishings, Electronics, Miscellaneous Eating and DrinkingQuick Service and Full Service Restaurants

Demand Analysis Process


2/13

ERA / AECOM

Reta il Ma rket Dema nd

Sourc es of d em a nd= those w ho c ould p ote ntia lly shop and d inein the CBD

Area Residents

CBD Visito rsove rnight ho te l guests a nd visiting friend s a ndfamily

CBD Employees

Others from outsid e these m a rkets ( Inflow ma rkets)

Sources of Demand


3/13

ERA / AECOM


Prim a ryTradeAreaCBD

Se c ond a ryTra d e Area :0-3 mi. ra d iusnet o f CBD

Tert iaryTra d e Area :3-5 mi ra d ius

Resident Markets


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5/13

ERA / AECOM


Visitors Hotel visitors=(841 CBD rooms * est. 60% occupancy * 365 days/ yr * 1.5 (persons/ room)) /

2.5 days/ visitor = 111 ,000 visitors

Visiting family and friends (VFRs) = 1 person per Clayton resident = 15,246 per year

Estimated 126,250 visitors annually to CBD

Offic e workers City of Clayton estimates 35 ,000 employees in CBD

Other Markets


6/13

ERA / AECOM


Visitors sp end app rox. $20 M tota l, $159 averag e per visitor ond efined reta il c a teg ories (ba sed on ad justed sta tewide a verages)

35,000 em ploye es spend a to ta l of $63.4 M a nnually on the reta ilc a tegories (b a sed on avera ges from the ICSC)

Other Markets


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ERA / AECOM


Ca pture ra te varies by ma rketa nd reta il type

Tota l of $157.8 million in po tentia lc a p tured sp end ing

Resid entia l market is makes upa p p rox. 2/ 3rd s of sup port

Capture


8/13

ERA / AECOM

Reta il Ma rket Dema nd Sales/ sf prod uctivity rates

rang e from $250 to $600,d ep end ing on store type

Total p otential sa lesd ivid ed by sa lesp rod uc tivity leve ls eq ua lsupp ortab le sf ra nge

Total suppo rtab le:346,000- 410,000 sf (vs.364,500 existing reta il sfw/ o b anks)

Supportable sf


9/13

ERA / AECOM

Downtown Reta il Inventory Inventory c om pleted by AECOM Ec onomics in Dec emb er, 2010

159 Tota l Reta il Busine sses (inc lud ing Banks a nd Financ ia l Svc s)

463, 250 sf (+) in a ll Ca teg ories of Oc c upied Sp ac e (inc lud ing

ba nks a nd fina nc ia l servic es) Without financ ia l servic es (21% of to ta l spa c e), the to ta l a mount of

reta il in downto wn Clayton is 364,520 (+) sf

Estima ted 1,980 sf of vac ant reta il sp ac e in Dec em ber 2009


10/13

ERA / AECOM

Downtown Inventory Four Cate gories/ Eleven Subc a teg ories of Oc c upied Reta il Spac e:

Conv enience Reta il Grocery Stores, Food and Beverage Stores Con venience Reta il Personal Care Con venience Reta il Convenience-based Consumer Services

Ba nk s a nd Fina ncia l Serv ices Food & Bevera ge Full-service Food & Bevera ge Limited Service Specialty Retail General Merchandise

Specialty Retail Clothing and Accessories Specialty Retail Furniture and Home Accessories Specialty Retail Miscellaneous Retail


11/13

ERA / AECOM

Downtown Reta il Inventory Reta il Clusters a longMa ryland Avenue and a tCentral Avenue & Forsyth,a nd in new d evelop ment

along Ca rondolet at theCircle. Other reta il is sc a tteredthroughout dow ntownCla yton in sta nd -a lonec omme rc ia l struc tures,a s pa rt of Mixed -Use andc ommerc ia l strip s


12/13

ERA / AECOM

Ma rket Conc lusions In 2014, Downtow n Cla yton is p rojec ted to have unmet ma rket de ma nd

sup p orting a n a d d itio na l 13,500 to 45,500 sf of reta il spa c e in a d d ition to existingreta il (not inc lud ing sf of b a nks a nd fina nc ia l institutions)

The total supp ortab le c ould b e c onsid ered c onserva tive , a s investme nt-

g ra d e re ta il sa les p rod uc tivity levels were used The supp ly vs. unmet d em a nd b y ca teg ory is illustra ted on the c hart which

follows

While the re is theo retica lly more F & B than the b a se m a rkets supp ort , this is ama jor attra c tion to d ow ntown Clayton, and c a n b e inc rea sed if ave rag ereq uired sa les p rod uc tivities a re slightly red uc ed . F & B is a lso a p owerfula ttra c tor of inflow markets. Both sp ec ia lty and c onvenience reta il ca teg oriesc a n supp ort a d d itiona l sf a nd stores


13/13

ERA / AECOM

Existing vs. Sup p orta b le sfComp arison o f Existing reta il sup p ly (on left) vs. Sup porta b le sf (on

right)

Documents

Clayton, MO Business District Master Plan 2010 - Retail Analysis