Citizenship Matters

8/12/2019 Citizenship Matters

1/29 WWW.AMERICANPROGRESS.O

Citizenship Matters

How Children of Immigrants Will Sway the Future of Politics

By Manuel Pastor, Justin Scoggins, Vanessa Carter, and Jared Sanchez July 2014


2/29

Citizenship MattersHow Children of Immigrants

Will Sway the Future of Politics

By Manuel Pastor, Justin Scoggins, Vanessa Carter, and Jared Sanchez July 2014


3/29

1 Introduction and summary

4 Family and communities matter

6 Economics matter

8 Politics matter

15 Conclusion

18 Technical appendix

22 Endnotes

Contents


4/29

1 Center for American Progress | Citizenship Matters

Introduction and summary

Americans and poliicians across he poliical specrum have voiced heir exraor-

dinarily srong suppor or immigraion reorm wih a pahway o ciizenship.1Bu

despie his consensusand despie he June 2013 Senae passage o an immigra-

ion reorm plan wih a pahway o ciizenship2House Speaker John Boehner

(R-OH) has indicaed he will no bring up immigraion reorm a all his year.3

As progress has salled, immigraion advocaes have increasingly pressed Presiden

Barack Obama o gran a sopgap measure o adminisraive relieha is, oenhance prosecuorial discreion, reduce deporaions, and gran emporary legal

saus o some unauhorized immigrans. On June 30, wih legislaion salled in

he House, Presiden Obama announced ha he would use his execuive auhoriy

by he end o summer o begin o fix he immigraion sysem.4

Why he back and orh on immigraion reorm? Afer all, mos economiss agree

ha repairing he naions immigraion sysem will benefi he counry s economy,5

and ha a pah o ciizenship would improve he orunes and well-being o a large

number o U.S. amilies.6Bu calculaions abou policy also hinge on poliics, and

some conservaive pundis have worried ha immigraion reorm will bring a

slew o new voers who are less avorable oward a Republican plaorm. Equally

so, a cynic migh ask wheher adminisraive relie could be poliically helpul o

Democras since immigrans who would direcly benefi are no in he counry

legally and hereore canno voe.7

While House Republicans never produced a piece o legislaion, a number o GOP

leaders and members indicaed hey could suppor a legalizaion program or

unauhorized immigrans, bu no a pahway o ciizenship.8Tis parly reflecs he

concerns o some Republican lawmakers ha heir chances o remaining in officemigh be hreaened by a pah o ciizenship ha evenually grans voing power o

he more han 11 million undocumened immigrans living in he Unied Saes. 9


5/29


In he long erm, however, i is acually he children o hese immigrans who could

sway he uure o poliics in he counry. Tere are approximaely 5.5 millionchil-

dren currenly living in he Unied Saes who have a leas one undocumened par-

en, and an esimaed 4.5 million o hese children are U.S.-born ciizens.10Given

he minimum 13-year pahway o ciizenship envisioned in he Senae bill passed

las summer, millions o hese young people will urn 18 and become eligible ovoe long beore heir parens. I is hese new voers who may reward hose who

pass immigraion reormor punish hose who do nosimply by how hey voe.

Te poenial effecs are boh shor and long erm. A recen Cener or American

Progress repor by Parick Oakord, iled Te Laino Elecorae by Immigran

Generaion, examined he immediae poliical implicaions o no addressing

immigraion reorm as well as he voing paterns o Lainos.11Tis repor explores

he consequences over muliple presidenial elecoral cycles, wih an analysis

ocused on he children who migh eel he curren debae mos sharply: he sons

and daughers o odays undocumened residens.We conclude ha over hecourse o he nex five presidenial elecionsby 2032, when all o odays children

o undocumened immigrans will have urned 18he ciizen children o he

undocumened will have been able o cas nearly 11 million ballos.

Perhaps his is he 11 million o which poliical leaders should be paying atenion.

And ye he effec o odays divisive immigraion poliics may be even greaer han

hose numbers sugges, as hisorical evidence and curren polling poin o he

ac ha immigraion is a ouchsone issue in voing preerences or he children

o all immigrans.12Widening he lens o include his enire group means a pos-

sible 15.4 million voers by 2032, who could poenially cas 41 million ballos

over hose elecion cycles. Shifing he ocus slighly o consider all ciizens o

Laino or Asian American descen would bring he oal number o new voers

o 19.3 million, wih a combined poenial o 52 million presidenial ballos cas.

Five presidenial cycles rom now migh seem a long way away, bu consider his:

Presiden Bill Clinon was re-eleced five cycles ago in 1996, and he is sill a major

figure in U.S. poliics oday.

It is these new

voters who may

reward those wh

pass immigratio

reformor pun

those who do

notsimply by

how they vote.
http://www.pewhispanic.org/files/reports/133.pdfhttp://www.pewhispanic.org/files/reports/133.pdf


6/29


TABLE 1

Children of immigrants will sway the future of U.S. politics

The number of children by group and the number of presidential votes they will

potentially cast by 2032

Group

Potential voters

as of 2032

Number of potential

votes cast by 2032

Citizen children of undocumented immigrants 4.5 million 11 million

Citizen children of all immigrants 15.4 million 41 million

Citizen children of Latino or Asian American descent 19.3 million 52 million

Source: Author's calculations of American Community Survey data.

Immigraion reorm may be off he able or 2014, bu make no misake: Failing o

enacor even bring o a voeimmigraion reorm ha includes a pahway o ci-

izenship has significan repercussions and is simply misguided. I ails o recognize

he mixed-saus realiies o many amilies, eliminaes he poenial financial bene-fis o hese amilies and o sociey a large, and is likely o enrench a second gener-

aion agains poliical acors perceived as holding up immigraion reorm progress.

On he oher hand, adminisraive acion could provide much-needed relie o

immigran communiies and a boos o poliicians who suppor i. Ulimaely, his

repor concludes ha he counry needs broader change: Te immigraion sysem

remains broken and Americans wan i fixed in a way ha respecs securiy, makes

way or uure immigraion, and grans a pahway o ciizenship.13


7/29


Family and communities matter

A common media image o undocumened immigrans is ha o recen arrivals,

usually working off he books and surely wihou deep roos in heir new coun-

ry.14Te daa sarkly conradic his image. In ac, a 2011 esimae suggesed ha

naionwide, 63 percen o undocumened residens have acually been in he coun-

ry or longer han 10 years.15More recen esimaes sugges ha nearly hal o he

undocumened immigrans in Caliornia have been here or more han 10 years.16

Perhaps mos significanly, he undocumened are very much a par o he socialabric o he communiies and saes where hey reside. Indeed, many live in

households where residens have mixed ciizenship sausha is, some o he

amily members are ciizens, ohers are lawul permanen residens, or LPRs,

while ohers are unauhorized. More han 16 million people

live in amilies wih a leas one undocumened immigran, a

populaion ha is one-hird larger han he sae o Illinoisa

sae where abou one-quarer o all undocumened residens

in he Unied Saes live.17

A 2011 sudy esimaes ha abou 4.5 million children were born

in he Unied Saes o a leas one unauhorized immigran par-

en.18Tis represens a growing share o he populaion: According

o he Pew Research Ceners Hispanic rends Projec, he number

o naive-born children wih a leas one undocumened immi-

gran paren has more han doubled since 2000.19Tis increase is

largely because he undocumened end o be younger and here-

ore in he prime age cohor or amily ormaion.20

Te mixed naure o hese communiies is anoher reason whyhe dramaic rise in deporaions under he Obama adminisra-

ion is roubling; more han 2 million people have been depored

over he pas five years.22While slighly ewer han 110,000

undocumened parens were removed in he 10-year period rom

fiscal year 1998 o 2007, nearly 90,000 were removed in FY 2012

alonea number ha affeced more han 150,000 children.23

This report focuses on the children of undo

mented immigrants and their future voting

potential. But the nature of mixed-status fa

means that a significant number of undocu

ed immigrants are married to U.S. citizens o

U.S. citizens in their families.

According to Latino Decisions polling, 13 pe

of married or partnered adult undocumente

migrants are married or partnered to U.S. cit

while a full 85 percent have a family membe

is a citizen.21Extrapolating out from the 10 m

unauthorized immigrant adults living in the

trya subset of the 11.7 million unauthorize

migrants, including childrenmeans that 7

unauthorized immigrants have citizen spous

8.5 million have citizen family members.

The other citizen voters:Spouses and family membe


8/29


Some recen analyses sugges ha concern over higher deporaion raes migh be

misplaced because removals o undocumened persons rom he inerior o he

counry have been on he decline, while removals o hose caugh near he border

have increased.24Te undocumened populaion has acually sabilized in recen

years, so deporaions rom he inerior are affecing a more inegraed popula-

ion, while deporaions rom he border are more requenly a resul o illegalre-enryhose who have already lived in he Unied Saes and are coming back

afer being depored o reunie wih heir amilies.25

Legalizaion and relie rom he hrea o deporaion are criical o

immigran amilies. Bu why is ciizenship imporan? Is i enough

o regularize he siuaion or childrenincluding boh legal saus

and ciizenshipand legalize, bu no nauralize, heir parens?

From he perspecive o he second generaion, he answer would

seem o be no. Ciizenship ofen osers a sense o confidence andbelonging ha can ranslae ino civic and parenal engagemen,27

which leads o a level o involvemen in schools and educaion

ha is criical or he academic perormance o children.28

Bu here is anoher reason why he Republican sandards on

immigraion all shor: While simply gaining legal saus raises

he economic profile o immigrans and he naion as a whole,

here is an addiional ciizen gain ha is realized when parens

are able o atain ull ciizenship. Tis ciizen gain could mater

grealy in reducing child povery and improving amily well-

being. Tese and oher economic effecs are discussed in he nex

secion o his repor.

Legalization: The process by which unaut

ized immigrants earn legal status.

Administrative relief: A temporary grantof legal status and a reprieve from deporta

The Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals,

grants this status to eligible unauthorized y

is one such program.

Naturalization: The process by which leg

permanent residents become citizens.

Citizen gain: The estimated 8 percent to 1

percent increase in earnings that is associat

becoming a citizeneven holding all othervidual factors constantbecause of a wide

of available jobs, more specific skill develop

and positive responses from employers.26

Definitions


9/29


Economics matter

Recen research suggess ha immigran earnings rise wih legalizaion. Tose

wih a more secure saus are beter able o swich jobs o more ul ly realize

heir alens, skills, and educaion a higher salaries, and are also beter able o

sand up or heir righs a work.29Bu research also shows ha here is a second

income boos rom ciizenshipon he order o 8 percen o 11 percen over

ime.30Tis ciizen gainoccurs because ciizenship allows workers an even wider

range o employmen possibiliies, creaes incenives or skills developmen, and

sends posiive signals o employers.

Numerous sudies, including an analysis rom he Congressional Budge Office,

or CBO, have already highlighed he broader gains o he U.S. economy i reorm

is passed, including changes in direc spending and revenues ha would decrease

ederal budge deficis by roughly $800 billion rom 2014 o 2033.31While many

o hese gains will come rom increased immigraion in he uure, one o he more

comprehensive sudies ocusing on he siuaion o he undocumened indicaed

ha a road map o ciizenship would bring abou significan economic gains.

Tese include gains in erms o economic growh, earnings, ax revenues, and

jobsall o which will no occur in he absence o immigraion reorm or which

would be significanly less effecive wihou a pahway o ciizenship.32

Te difference hese gains would make in qualiy o lie or he nex generaion

could be significan. For example, in Caliornia, abou wo-hirds o children living

in a amily headed by an undocumened adul find hemselves living 150 percen

below he ederal povery line.33Any seps o boos hese amilies incomes would

be a solid invesmen in boh he counrys uure and he healh and well-being o

hese American amilies.

Research suggess ha beween 1990 and 2006, he povery raes o immigrans

legalized under he Immigraion Reorm and Conrol Ac, or IRCA, o 1986 ell

dramaically: Te povery rae o immigrans ages 25 o 34 who were legalized

Numerous stud

including an

analysis from th

Congressional

Budget Office, o

CBO, have alread

highlighted the

broader gains to

the U.S. econom

if reform is passe


10/29


hrough he IRCA declined rom 26 percen o 14 percen afer legalizaion, wih

obvious posiive effecs or heir children.34I such progress could be duplicaed

now, his could have a significan posiive effec on he overall povery rae in he

Unied Saes, providing a much-needed boos o he economy.

As or adminisraive relie, i is harder o esimae exacly he broad economicgains ha migh be secured by expanding affirmaive relieha is, by graning

a work permi and proecion rom deporaionor unauhorized immigrans.

One sudy suggess ha he curren level o deporaions could pu an addiional

83,000 households a risk o povery and leave more han 125,000 children in a

ood-insufficien household annually.35In many cases, he people being depored

are he primary breadwinners or heir amilies.36

On he broader macroeconomic ron, i is eviden ha companies are con-

cerned abou disrupions o heir labor orcenoe he reacions o businesses in

Nevada, Alabama, and Georgia o harsh laws in hose saes37and ha businessis predominanly supporive o immigraion reorm.38As a resul, i is hard o see

how adminisraive relie could be anyhing bu a posiive sep orward or he

economy. I would gran more securiy o hose who are already here, as well as

o heir employers. While a legislaive soluion o immigraion reorm ha allows

people o permanenly gain legal saus and ciizenship has he greaes economic

punch, adminisraive relie could boos he economic recovery or amilies and

or he naion as a whole.

It is hard to see h

administrative re

could be anythi

but a positive st

forward for the

economy.


11/29


Politics matter

Te idea o passing an immigraion reorm plan wihou a pahway o ciizenship

was prominenly floaed in an influenial 2013 aricle by scholar Peer Skerry.39

He argued ha a legal-saus-only approach was spliting he difference

beween hose who waned o depor undocumened immigrans and hose

who waned o embrace hem. Te view was echoed in 2013 by ormer Florida

Gov. Jeb Bush (R) in his own atempquickly panned by boh he righ and

he lefo end he immigraion wars by suggesing ha a common ground

soluion migh be o allow people wihou legal saus o say in he counrybu wihou he possibiliy o ciizenship.40Neverheless, his viewpoin gained

racion in he House Republican leaderships principles on immigraion reorm

released in January 2014.41Tese principles have no made i ino legislaion,

bu hey orm an imporan marker or where House Republicans will likely

sand on any uure immigraion reorm proposal.42

A possible moive or his approach is o assuage he concerns o some conserva-

ives who believe ha any road map o ciizenship is likely o yield 11 million

Democraic voers.43While no all Republicans believe graning ciizenship will

lead o hese voers overwhelmingly supporing Democras, he heory has been

kep alive by some imporan conservaive voices on alk radio, including Rush

Limbaugh. He insiss ha hese immigrans are predesined o voe Democra

and hus a pah o ciizenship is a deah senence or he Republicans.44

Te inenions behind a spli-he-difference approach as a way o bridge he gap

beween Democraic and Republican immigraion ideas may be good, bu he idea

seems rooed in bad daa and worse poliics, ignoring hree key acors:

Polling o unauhorized immigrans by he Pew Research Cener finds ha closeo 20 percen ideniy wih or lean oward he Republican Pary,45while Laino

Decisions finds ha 45 percen would be open o voing Republican i he pary

were o ake he lead on immigraion reorm.46


12/29


Because he pah o ciizenship envisioned in he Senae bill would ake a leas

13 years or mos adul immigrans, boh paries will have nearly our presiden-

ial elecion cyclesor moreo win over hese voers-o-be.47

Te voers on which eiher pary should ocus are he U.S.-born children o

immigrans who are going o be voers regardless o wha happens wih immi-graion reorm.

Future voting patterns

and party affiliation of citizens

While some pundis believe ha all unauhorized immigrans

are predesined o become Democras i graned ciizenship,

hisory and curren polling reveals many may look avorably on

poliical acors o eiher pary who do heir par or immigraionreorm. Some older Laino voers ondly recall Ronald Reagan

as he presiden who signed he IRCA ino law and enabled he

subsequen pah o legalizaion and ciizenship. Some analyss

have also argued ha Republicans and immigransparicu-

larly Laino immigranshave common ground on work ehic,

amily values, and aih.48For all hese reasons, i is no surprise

ha ormer Presiden George W. Bushwho atemped his

own version o immigraion reorm while in officewas able

o secure more han 40 percen o he Laino elecorae in his

re-elecion campaign in 2004.49

Indeed, even in he conex o ongoing, divisive debae, a 2013

repor based on he Pew Research Ceners Naional Survey o

Lainos suggesed ha abou 20 percen o unauhorized Laino

immigrans ideniy wih (4 percen) or lean owards (15 per-

cen) he Republican Pary and abou a quarer (27 percen)

do no ideniy wih or lean owards eiher pary.50Ta leaves

only abou hal who currenly ideniy wih or lean oward he

Democraic Pary.

On a student visa from Mexico, Manuel51w

attending college in California when the Re

gan administration passed the IRCA in 1986has vivid memories of watching the televise

announcement of the bills passage and wit

ing his Latino co-workers clapping, crying,

screaming with joy. The IRCA meant not on

they could seek legal, long-term employme

also that they could own property and visit

families abroad.

Therefore, it should be no surprise that the

IRCAand particularly President Reagans

ing of itleft a lasting impression. Because

it, Manuel was able to stay in the United Sta

after he finished college. He secured perma

resident status, started a family, and eventu

moved from California to Nashville, Tenness

some ways, his is the archetypical American

migrant storyworking 15 hours each wee

at two full-time jobs. But it was made possi

because of reform. Manuel still warmly rem

bers President Reagan as the man who sign

IRCA into law and who made it possible for

remain in the United States and chase his d

of independence and opportunity.

President Reagan

Hero of IRCA-era immigrants


13/29


On he oher hand, a backlash is possible. In Caliornia, he sory is quie clear

and offers a warning signal o he naion as demographic changes over he pas

30 years have made he sae majoriy-minoriy, oreshadowing developmens in

he broader U.S. populaion over he nex 50 years. In his 1994 re-elecion cam-

paign, ormer Caliornia Gov. Pee Wilson (R) chose o ocus on his suppor

or Caliornia Proposiion 187, he so-called Save Our Saerom undocu-mened immigransballo iniiaive. As David Damore and Adrian Panoja o

Laino Decisions noe, Gov. Wilson did indeed win re-elecion, bu he cam-

paign also engendered a significan backlash rom and poliical mobilizaion

among Caliornias Laino voers.52

Even as Laino voer regisraion grew in he 1990s, he Republican Pary conin-

ued o emphasize ani-immigran ballo measures o a dwindling share o voers.

Meanwhile, new Laino regisrans flocked o he Democraic Pary. Te resul was

a sae ha had been accusomed o voing Republicanand had produced mod-

ern Republican presidens such as Richard Nixon and Ronald Reaganbecominga sae in which no Republican currenly holds saewide office.53

Some Latino voters remain uncertain about either party, in large

part due to immigration reform. Luis LaRotta, a then-31-year-old

financier who was a delegate to the Republican National Conven-

tion in 2012, is one such voter.54

Fewer than 40 days before the 2012 elections, LaRotta had not yet

decided who he would vote for come Election Day. On the one hand,

he liked former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romneys (R) plans for job

creation and health care, as they protected states rights and limited

the growth of the federal government. On the other hand, LaRotta

agreed with President Obamas stance on immigration and praised

him for supporting the Development, Relief, and Education for

Minors, or DREAM, Act, even while LaRotta agreed with Gov. Ro

on border control. LaRotta tended to favor Republican policies,

he nevertheless remained an undecided voter due to Gov. Rom

stance on immigration reform.

We do not know how LaRotta voted in 2012, nor with which pa

now identifies. Yet he is an example of the undecided voter wh

Republican but is considering voting Democratic based purely

each partys stance on immigration reform and a path to citizen

Republican National Convention delegate considersDemocratic candidate because of immigration


14/29


Oher saes are seeing high-profile races deermined in par by candidaes views

on immigraion. In Colorado, he Laino voe was decisive in he 2010 Senae race,

where Ken Bucka Republican perceived as being ani-immigranlos o Sen.

Michael Benne (D).55In Nevada, Democraic Sen. Harry Reid won 90 percen

o he Laino voe in his 2010 campaign, parly because opponen Sharron Angle

atacked him or being sof on immigraion and released racially charged ads picur-ing undocumened immigrans crossing he border.56And, o course, Republican

presidenial candidae and ormer Massachusets Gov. Mit Romney capured an

abysmally low share o he Laino and Asian American voe27 percen and 26 per-

cen, respecivelyafer he called or undocumened immigrans o sel-depor.57

Immigraion is personal or hese voers: In polling beore he 2012 presidenial

elecion, or example, nearly hree-quarers o Nevadas Laino voers repored

knowing someone who was undocumened, while 41 percen knew someone who

was deained or depored.58On a naional scale, 63 percen o Laino voers know

someone who is undocumened, while 39 percen know someone who has beendeained or depored.59More imporanly, a survey by Laino Decisions and Har

Research Associaes o Lainos who voed in 2012 suggess ha blocking reorm

wih a pahway o ciizenship would have a sharply negaive effec on Laino per-

cepions o he Republican Pary.60

Some pundis migh dismiss his populaion as already los o Republicans.

However, he research reveals ha hal o Laino voers have indeed voed or a

Republican candidae, and among hose who have voed Republican in he pas,

many repored ha blocking reorm wih a pah o ciizenship would sharply affec

heir view o he pary.61For example, i he Republican leadership in he House is

seen as blocking reorm, prior Laino Republican voers will go rom a 46 percen

avorable and 47 percen unavorable view o he pary o 30 percen avorable and

61 percen unavorable. Ta is a remarkable 30-poin swingenough o worry

anyone who wans o win an elecion.62

What about the kids?

Children who closely share he immigran experience wih heir parens represena significan elecoral influence likely o personally eel he impac o public poli-

cies.63Research by Louis DeSipio, Frank Bean, and Ruben Rumbau illusraes ha

a parens saus and nauralizaion increases poliical engagemen by heir kids.64

On a national

scale, 63 percen

Latino voters kn

someone who i

undocumented

while 39 percen

know someone

who has been

detained or

deported.


15/29


Les sar by considering hose who are mos direcly affeced. Roughly 4.5 mil-

lion children o undocumened parens are U.S.-born and hus will auomaically

be eniled o voe when hey urn 18.65Accouning or moraliya modes

acor or such a young populaionha amouns o jus ewer han 4.5 million

people who will urn 18 and be eligible o voe by 2032, poenially casing a

cumulaive 11 million voes by ha year.66

Tis is he real 11 million ha polii-cians should be ocused on, raher han he 11 million undocumened immigrans

living in he counry righ now.67

Moreover, given he ways ha nauralized ciizens, lawul permanen residens,

and undocumened immigrans are ofen woven ogeher ino he same house-

holds and communiies, i makes sense o expand he group o all 15.4 million

already-ciizen children in immigran amilies who will be o voing age by 2032.

Shifing he lens slighly, given he ofen racialized naure o he debae, here are

19.3 million young Lainos and Asian Americans who are currenly U.S. ciizensand will be o voing age by ha same year.69

Our calculations suggest that between now and 2032, just under 4.5

million children of unauthorized immigrants will turn 18 and may

potentially cast up to a collective 11 million votes in the next fivepresidential elections. How did we get to this number?

First, we applied mortality estimatesexplained in the appendix

to account for reductions in the current population over the next 18

years. Then, to estimate the total number of new voters by election,

we have aged in the population that will turn 18 between now and

2032. Consider two children, a boy age 17 and a girl age 5. The boy

will turn 18 in one year and will be eligible to vote in the 2016 presi-

dential election. He will also be able to vote in the next four elections

in 2020, 2024, 2028, and 2032. The girl, by contrast, will only turn 18

in 2027 and as such will only be able to vote in the two preside

elections in 2028 and 2032.

To calculate the total number of votes that this population will

potentially cast, we created a model based on when each child

documented immigrants will turn 18 and then figured out how

presidential elections they will be able to vote in through 2032

(Note: These are only potential ballots cast, which assumes th

every new eligible voter will vote in each presidential electio

Given that voter turnout rates overall run in the mid-50 perce

60 percent range, these figures should be taken as the maxim

potential votes cast.68)

Calculating the 11 million ballots cast by 2032


16/29


Figure 1 below illusraes he rise o hese hree groups o poenial voers by

2032: he ciizen children o undocumened immigrans, he ciizen children o

immigran parens, and all ciizen Laino and Asian American children. Several

useul ways o hink abou he iming are ha by he end o 2032 and over he

course o five presidenial elecions:

Te ciizen children o he currenly undocumened will have been able

o cas 11 million ballos. All ciizen immigran children will have been able o cas more han

41 million ballos. All ciizen Laino and Asian American youh will have been able o

cas nearly 52 million ballos.

How will his nex America voe? Already, 74 percen o young Lainos ages 18

o 34 hink ha many Republicans in Congress hold negaive atiudes oward

immigrans; hey perceive ani-immigran saemens as reflecive o he pary and

no jus o a ew selec poliicians. Nearly 60 percen o second-generaion Lainosindicae ha hey will be less likely o voe or Republicans in uure elecions i

reorm wih a pah o ciizenship is blocked.70

FIGURE 1

Facing the kids, 20162032

Millions of potential new voters, cumulative

20160

5

10

15

20

2020 2024 2028

Source: Author's calculations of American Community Survey data.

Citizen children

of undocumentedimmigrants

Citizen children of all

immigrants currently

in the United States

Citizen Latino and Asian

American children

2032


17/29


Tere are imporan moderae pro-reorm voices in he Republican Pary, how-

ever, who are rying o appeal o his emerging group o voers. Sen. John McCain

(R-AZ) has noed his belie ha he undamenal principle o his legislaion has

o conain a pah o ciizenship, and enough Republican senaors agreed wih him

o pass S.744 in 2013 by a 68-o-32 margin.71Republican sraegis Whi Ayres

has worried abou he long-erm slippage o he pary i i does no improve issanding wih nonwhie voers,72and Karl Rove has suggesed ha he immigra-

ion issue keeps Lainos who oherwise agree wih us rom hearing us ully.73Te

Republican Growh and Opporuniy Projecbeter known as he Republican

Pary auopsy o he 2012 presidenial deeasuggesed ha immigraion

reorm was criical o he uure o he pary.74

Ye hese more moderae voices have been overwhelmed by pary dynamics as a

whole. While some calculaions sugges ha holding back on immigraion reorm

is beter or he miderm elecions, ha sraegy is shorsighed and will cos

Republicans in he long erm.

Even wih he poliics o he issue wihin he House Republican caucus making

i oo difficul o move orward on legislaion his year, immigraion reorm ha

includes a pahway o ciizenship is sill smar policy now and wise poliically or

he uure. While adminisraive relie may no be everyhing communiies need

or wan, i oo represens a plaorm o suppor amilies, srenghen he economy,

and win poliical suppor.

While

administrative

relief may not

be everything

communities

need or want, it

too represents a

platform to sup

families, strengt

the economy,

and win politica

support.


18/29


Conclusion

Immigraion reorm oday is a a sandsill. Bu in he uurewhen members o

Congress work up he courage o pass his much-needed legislaiona ull pah-

way o ciizenship is he only viable way orward.

I is no clear wha poliical problem blocking ciizenship is mean o solve. Polls,

including rom conservaive Fox News,75sugges ha a pah o ciizenship is

popular wih boh Republicans and he broader public. Te nonparisan Public

Religion Research Insiue also ound ha 63 percen o respondens crossingpary and religious lines avored legislaion o creae a pahway or undocumened

immigrans, while only 14 percen suppored legal residency wih no opion or

ciizenship. Indeed, he suppor or ciizenship among he American public is so

srong ha nearly 70 percen o Americans believe he 13-year pah laid ou in he

Senae bill is oo long.76

In conras wih he conservaives who hink abou immigraion reorm purely

in erms o he number o new voers creaed, he real ocus should no be on he

immigrans hemselves bu insead on heir amilies and heir children who are

already U.S.-born ciizensall o whom are likely o direc heir rusraions a

hose who held back he dreams o heir relaives, riends, and communiies.

Immigraion reorm wih a pahway o ciizenship makes sense on amily, eco-

nomic, and moral grounds. I is suppored by business, labor, and civic leaders,

and is popular wih voers and voers-o-be. I is rare o find his winning combi-

naion, and boh paries should capialize on he realiy o his siuaion o come

ogeher o pass common-sense immigraion reorm.


19/29


About the authors

Dr. Manuel Pastoris a proessor o sociology and American sudies and ehnic-

iy a he Universiy o Souhern Caliornia, or USC. He currenly direcs he

Program or Environmenal and Regional Equiy, or PERE, and he Cener

or he Sudy o Immigran Inegraion, or CSII, a USC. Pasors research hasgenerally ocused on issues o he economic, environmenal, and social condi-

ions acing low-income urban communiies and he social movemens seeking

o change hose realiies. He holds a docorae in economics rom he Universiy

o Massachusets Amhers, has writen several books, and speaks naionally on

issues including demographic change, economic inequaliy, and communiy

empowermen.

Justin Scogginsis he daa manager a he Program or Environmenal and

Regional Equiy and he Cener or he Sudy o Immigran Inegraion a USC.

He holds a masers degree in applied economics and finance rom he Universiyo Caliornia, Sana Cruz. Scoggins currenly manages he broad array o daases

used in PERE/CSII research, and provides guidance on and conducs quaniaive

analyses called or by various projecs in environmenal jusice, regional equiy,

and immigran inegraion.

Vanessa Carteris he senior daa analys a he Program or Environmenal and

Regional Equiy and he Cener or he Sudy o Immigran Inegraion a USC.

Carer holds a masers degree in urban planning rom UCLA and is a suden a

Fuller Teological Seminary. Carers curren work ocuses on research in immi-

gran inegraion, aih-based organizing, regional equiy, and movemen build-

ing. She has co-auhored several journal aricles, repors, and a book chaper wih

PERE/CSII saff and affiliaed aculy.

Jared Sanchezis a daa analys a he Program or Environmenal and Regional

Equiy and he Cener or he Sudy o Immigran Inegraion a USC. He holds a

masers degree in urban planning rom USC. In addiion o racial desegregaion

research, Sanchez work currenly ocuses on using quaniaive mehods on opics

such as regional equiy, immigran inegraion, and rapid response requess or

communiy-based organizaions.


20/29


Acknowledgements

Tis repor was published wih suppor or he Cener or he Sudy o Immigran

Inegraions analyic work by he James Irvine Foundaion. Te views and opin-

ions expressed in his repor are hose o Cener or American Progress and he

Cener or he Sudy o Immigran Inegraion and do no necessarily reflec heposiion o he James Irvine Foundaion. Te Cener or American Progress pro-

duces independen research and policy ideas driven by soluions ha we believe

will creae a more equiable and jus world.


21/29


Technical appendix

Figure 1 shows projecions o new eligible voers or each presidenial elecion

year rom hree groups:

U.S.-ciizen childrenunder 18 years oldo undocumened parens U.S.-ciizen children wih a leas one immigran paren U.S.-ciizen children o Asian American or Laino descen

We should noe ha or his repor we include Pacific Islanders in he broaderAsian American caegory; hey comprise abou 4 percen o he combined oal,

are generally included wih Asians in broader daa on poliical preerences, and are

likely o have similar sensiiviies around immigraion issues so his seemed like an

appropriae grouping.77

o esimae he cumulaive number o new eligible voers o hese various caego-

ries, we calculaed he age disribuions or each group o U.S.-ciizen children

rom he 2012 American Communiy Survey, or ACS, Public Use Microdaa

Sample, or PUMS, rom he Inegraed Public Use Microdaa Series, or IPUMS.78

Given he lack o inormaion in he ACS on parens legal saus, he age dis-

ribuion o he esimaed 4.5 million U.S.-ciizen children o undocumened

immigrans was proxied by he age disribuion o U.S.-ciizen children wih

a leas one nonciizen paren. Tis disribuion was applied o he esimaed

base o 4.5 mil lion children o undocumened immigrans in generaing our

esimaes. We ook he 2012 ACS daa as a reasonable represenaion o he

2014 oals and age disribuions and hen made sraighorward projecions

or each group o U.S.-ciizen children by assuming ha everyone ages in place;

or example, he number o 17-year-olds became our projecion o new voersin 2015, he number o 16-year-olds became he projecion or 2016, and so on.


22/29


Tis is likely o slighly undersae he oal impac since he youh populaion

probably grew modesly beween 2012 and 2014. Finally, we applied esimaes

o moraliy or he populaionalhough, as migh be guessed, hese are no

large adjusmens or such a young populaion. Sill, ha explains why our

esimaes o he oal number o aged-in poenial voers who are, say, children

o immigrans, is slighly less han he oal number o hose children in he2012 ACS; o keep maters clear, we consisenly repor he moraliy-adjused

numbers in he ex.

We should noe ha his approach is likely o underesimae he acual numbers

o ciizen children o immigrans and ciizen Laino and Asian American children

in he uure given ha i does no consider he impac o uure immigraion. Tis

was inenional, however, as we inend or our projecions o reflec only hose

children who are likely o be impaced in some way by he curren immigraion

debae, so i makes sense o include only hose currenly residing in he Unied

Saes. Because we end he analysis in 2032, we also convenienly exclude hoseprojeced o be born o parens currenly residing in he Unied Saes, as hey will

no ye have crossed he hreshold o he voing age o 18.

Tese numbers o new youh voers are ar above any reasonable esimaes o undoc-

umened residens who will become ciizens under he Senae plan. As a hough

experimen, we also projeced who migh become eligible o voe and when based

on he Senae bill. o do so, we drew upon several daa sources, including he projec-

ions o numbers o new legal permanen residens under S.744 rom he currenly

undocumened immigrans included in a CBO analysis,79a Pew Research Hispanic

rends Projec repor,80and wo repors rom he U.S. Deparmen o Homeland

Securiys Office o Immigraion Saisics, or OIS, describing nauralizaion raes or

immigrans who were legalized under he IRCA.81

While he newes esimaes sugges ha he number o undocumened immi-

grans living in he counry is somewhere beween 11 million and 12 million,82i

is likely ha abou 10 million o hese are aduls. As i urns ou, some percenage

o hese individuals will no mee he ime-in-counry and oher requiremens in

he Senae bill o obain he iniial legal saus o a regisered provisional immi-

gran, or RPI, or agriculural worker, and hus he CBO esimaes ha amonghose who enered he Unied Saes as adulsage 16 and olderonly 6.5

million will make he iniial cu.83Tose going he RPI roue will hen need o

mainain income and employmen over ime, pay a series o ees and back axes,

and only afer 10 years may apply o be lawul permanen residens, or LPRs.


23/29


Te agriculural workers would be able o become LPRs afer five years. Given

he mix and he requiremens, he CBO also esimaes ha only 5.3 million o

hese adulsboh he RPIs and he agriculural workerswill atain LPR saus

by 2028. Tere are anoher 1.5 million DREAMerssome aduls and some

youhand we discuss hem separaely below.84

o calculae who would nauralize rom his group o 5.3 million people, we ook

he projeced numbers o new LPRs by ime period and roueRPI or agricul-

ural workerrom he CBO repor85and applied wo scenarios o cumulaive

nauralizaions over ime based on published OIS repors o nauralizaion raes or

immigrans who were graned saus under he IRCA. Te lower-bound scenario

assumes cumulaive nauralizaion raes over ime ha are similar o hose who

were legalized under he IRCAreaching 53 percen afer 15 years o eligibiliy

while he upper-bound scenario assumes cumulaive nauralizaion raes over ime

ha are similar o all non-Mexican IRCA immigransreaching 68 percen afer

15 years o eligibiliyalong wih a seeper rise in nauralizaions during he firsour years o eligibiliy. Fron loading in he firs our years seemed appropriae:

Given he much longer wai ime beore one is able obain LPR saus under S.744

compared wih he IRCA, here may be some pen-up demand or nauralizaion.

Te higher cumulaive share afer 15 years o eligibiliy o 68 percen was chosen

o ensure ha our upper-bound esimaes were overesimaes given ha non-Mexi-

cans have hisorically had much aser nauralizaion raes han Mexicans86and ha

he majoriy o he undocumened are o Mexican origin.87

Anoher group o aduls will ollow a slighly differen pahhose who are cur-

renly 18 and older bu arrived in he counry beore he age o 16. Tese adul

DREAMers oal abou 500,000, and hey ace wo poenial pahs: eiher ollow

he regular RPI pah o LPR saus lasing 10 years or go hrough an acceleraed

five-year pah ha would allow hem o become LPRsand laer ciizensmore

quickly, provided hey commi o miliary service or pursue a college degree. Te

CBO provides esimaes o hose who are likely o obain LPR saus via he later

acceleraed roue, and we disribued hese o he adul DREAMer populaion,

wih some also added o he group o younger DREAMers ages 13 and older. As

or raes o nauralizaion, we ook he upper-bound esimae or he regular RPIs

as he lower-bound esimae or his group and devised anoher upper boundbased on ull nauralizaion afer 15 years. We saw less reason or his group, or

whom his counry has been heir ormaive experience, o eschew nauralizaion.


24/29


o esimae he number o new eligible voers rom he 1 million currenly

undocumened childrenyounger DREAMerswe assumed ha his group

would nauralize a an even aser rae once eligible, given ha mos o hem are

growing up in he Unied Saes now, likely already view hemselves as Americans,

and may have ew home counry loyalies ha would induce hem o delay nau-

ralizaion. We hus used he upper bound or he older DREAMers as he lowerbound or his group and applied an even aser cumulaive nauralizaion rae or

he upper boundone ha assumes 95 percen would be nauralized wihin five

years o ataining LPR saus and ha 100 percen would be nauralized afer 10

years. As or he choice o a aser pah, he incenives all off or he younges in

his group so we assumed a aser pah migh be chosen only by hose ages 13 or

older, and we applied he age disribuion o nonciizen children younger han 18

in he Unied Saes derived rom he 2012 IPUMS ACS o esimae he number

o DREAMers beween he ages o 13 and 17.

Te resuls are srikingly differen rom he specer o 11 million Democraicvoers. Given he long pah o ciizenship sausand afer making modes

adjusmens or moraliywe esimae ha only a rickle o new voers who will

benefi rom nauralizaion will hi he polls in 2024 and 2028. By 2032, reason-

able esimaes sugges ha here will be 1.8 million o 3 million new voers as a

resul o S.744. O course, given he ime blocks in he legislaion, i is probably

more appropriae o srech he ime rame ou o 2040, bu even hen he number

is 3.4 million o 4.3 million.

In shor, a reasonable esimae o he maximum amoun o new voers rom legal-

izaion in he year 2040 is sill below he virually assured number o new voers

in 2032 who are U.S.-ciizen children o he undocumened and simply aged heir

way ino being able o poliically suppor hose who suppored heir parens.


25/29


Endnotes

1 Philip Wolgin and Evelyn Galvan, Immigration Poll-ing Roundup: Americans of All Political Stripes WantCongress to Pass Immigration Reform, Center forAmerican Progress, March 4, 2014, available at http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/immigration/news/2014/03/04/85102/immigration-polling-round-

up-americans-of-all-political-stripes-want-congress-to-pass-immigration-reform/.

2 Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and ImmigrationModernization Act, S.744, 113th Cong. 1 sess. (Govern-ment Printing Office, 2013), available at https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/113/s744/text.

3 See, for example, Puneet Kollipara, Wonkbook: Can-tors stunning loss likely means immigration reformis dead, The Washington Post Wonkblog, June 11,2014, available at http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/06/11/wonkbook-cantors-stunning-loss-likely-means-immigration-reform-is-dead/; Steven Dennis, Immigration Bill Officially Dead:Boehner Tells Obama No Vote This Year, President Says,Roll Call Blog, June 30, 2014, available at http://blogs.rollcall.com/white-house/immigration-bill-officially-dead-boehner-tells-obama-no-vote-this-year/?dcz.

4 David Nakamura and Ed OKeefe, As reformstalls, administration eyes acting on its own toease deportations, lawmakers say, The Washing-ton Post, April 11, 2014, available at http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/as-reform-stalls-administration-eyes-acting-on-its-own-to-ease-deportations-lawmakers-say/2014/04/10/5e7785ae-bf2e-11e3-b574-f8748871856a_story.html; ChristiParsons and Lisa Mascaro, Obama says he will overhaulimmigration without Congress help, The Los AngelesTimes, June 30, 2014, available at http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/politicsnow/la-na-pn-obama-immigration-20140630-story.html#page=1/.

5 See for example, Ezra Klein, Worried about theeconomy? Then pass immigration reform, The Wash-ington Post Wonkblog, January 31, 2013, available athttp://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/

wp/2013/01/31/worried-about-the-economy-then-pass-immigration-reform/.

6 Robert Lynch and Patrick Oakford, The EconomicEffects of Granting Legal Status and Citizenship toUndocumented Immigrants (Washington: Centerfor American Progress, 2013), available athttp://www.americanprogress.org/issues/immigration/report/2013/03/20/57351/the-economic-effects-of-granting-legal-status-and-citizenship-to-undocument-ed-immigrants/;Manuel Pastor and Justin Scoggins,Citizen Gain: The Economic Benefits of Naturalizationfor Immigrants and the Economy (Los Angeles: Centerfor the Study of I mmigrant Integration, University ofSouthern California, 2012), available at http://csii.usc.edu/documents/citizen_gain_web.pdf.

7 For example, Rep. Michael Burgess (R-TX) suggestedthat reform will produce 11 million Democrats. See

Tim Alberta, Rubio Stares Down the Right Over Undoc-umented Democrats ,National Journal, June 18, 2013,available at http://www.nationaljournal.com/congress/rubio-stares-down-the-right-over-undocumented-democrats-20130618.

8 Benjy Sarlin, Boehner Warns Immigration Reform Is inSerious Danger, MSNBC, February 6, 2014, available athttp://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/boehner-immigration-reform-trouble#.

9 See, for example, Rush Limbaugh, The LimbaughAmnesty Plan, The Rush Limbaugh Show, March 19,2013, available at http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2013/03/19/the_limbaugh_amnesty_plan.

10 Jeffrey S. Passel and DVera Cohn, Unauthorized

Immigrant Population: National and State Trends,2010 (Washington: Pew Research Hispanic TrendsProject, 2011), available at h ttp://www.pewhispanic.org/2011/02/01/unauthorized-immigrant-population-brnational-and-state-trends-2010/.

11 Patrick Oakford, The Latino Electorate by ImmigrantGeneration: The Rising Influence of Children of Im-migrants (Washington: Center for American Progress,2014), available at http://americanprogress.org/issues/immigration/report/2014/06/12/91446/the-latino-electorate-by-immigrant-generation/.

12 Gary Segura and Matt Barreto, How the NationalExit Poll Badly M issed the Latino Vote in 2010, LatinoDecisions, November 4, 2010, available athttp://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2010/11/04/how-the-nation-al-exit-poll-badly-missed-the-latino-vote-in-2010/; MattA. Barreto and Geoff Garin, House GOP Inaction on CIR

Damaging Republican Party Image, Latino Decisions,July 18, 2013, available at http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2013/05/03/immigration-reform-gops-big-chance-to-deliver-on-latino-outreach/.

13 Wolgin and Galvan, Immigration Polling Roundup.

14 Dalia Fahmy, Expensive Aliens: How Much Do Il-legal Immigrants Really Cost?, ABC News, May 21,2010, available at http://abcnews.go.com/Business/illegal-immigrants-cost-us-100-billion-year-group/story?id=10699317.

15 Paul Taylor and others, Unauthorized Immigrants:Length of R esidency, Patterns of Parenthood (Wash-ington: Pew Research Hispanic Trends Project, 2011),available at http://www.pewhispanic.org/2011/12/01/unauthorized-immigrants-length-of-residency-pat-terns-of-parenthood/.

16 Manuel Pastor and Enrico A. Marcelli, Whats at Stakefor the State: Undocumented Californians, Immigra-tion Reform, and Out Future Together (Los Angeles:USC Program for Environmental and R egional Equity,2013), p. 9, available at http://csii.usc.edu/documents/whats_at_stake_for_the_state.pdf.

17 Taylor and others, Unauthorized Immigrants, p. 6;Bureau of the Census, State & County QuickFacts:Illinois, available at http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/17000.html(last accessed July 2014).

18 Passel and Cohn, Unauthorized Immigrant Population.

19 Taylor and others, Unauthorized Immigrants, p. 6.

20 Ibid., p. 5. The median age of undocumented adults36.2 years old versus 46.1 for documented immigrant

adults and 46.5 for U.S. native adults.

21 Latino Decisions, NALEO, and Americas Voice Educa-tion Fund, Americas Voice Education Fund Surveyof Latino Undocumented Immigrants March 2013(2013), available at http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/NALEO_AV_Un-doc_Results.pdf.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/06/11/wonkbook-cantors-stunning-loss-likely-means-immigration-reform-is-dead/http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/06/11/wonkbook-cantors-stunning-loss-likely-means-immigration-reform-is-dead/http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/06/11/wonkbook-cantors-stunning-loss-likely-means-immigration-reform-is-dead/http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/06/11/wonkbook-cantors-stunning-loss-likely-means-immigration-reform-is-dead/http://blogs.rollcall.com/white-house/immigration-bill-officially-dead-boehner-tells-obama-no-vote-this-year/?dczhttp://blogs.rollcall.com/white-house/immigration-bill-officially-dead-boehner-tells-obama-no-vote-this-year/?dczhttp://blogs.rollcall.com/white-house/immigration-bill-officially-dead-boehner-tells-obama-no-vote-this-year/?dczhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/01/31/worried-about-the-economy-then-pass-immigration-reform/http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/01/31/worried-about-the-economy-then-pass-immigration-reform/http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/01/31/worried-about-the-economy-then-pass-immigration-reform/http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/immigration/report/2013/03/20/57351/the-economic-effects-of-granting-legal-status-and-citizenship-to-undocumented-immigrants/http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/immigration/report/2013/03/20/57351/the-economic-effects-of-granting-legal-status-and-citizenship-to-undocumented-immigrants/http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/immigration/report/2013/03/20/57351/the-economic-effects-of-granting-legal-status-and-citizenship-to-undocumented-immigrants/http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/immigration/report/2013/03/20/57351/the-economic-effects-of-granting-legal-status-and-citizenship-to-undocumented-immigrants/http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/immigration/report/2013/03/20/57351/the-economic-effects-of-granting-legal-status-and-citizenship-to-undocumented-immigrants/http://www.nationaljournal.com/congress/rubio-stares-down-the-right-over-undocumented-democrats-20130618http://www.nationaljournal.com/congress/rubio-stares-down-the-right-over-undocumented-democrats-20130618http://www.nationaljournal.com/congress/rubio-stares-down-the-right-over-undocumented-democrats-20130618http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2010/11/04/how-the-national-exit-poll-badly-missed-the-latino-vote-in-2010/http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2010/11/04/how-the-national-exit-poll-badly-missed-the-latino-vote-in-2010/http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2010/11/04/how-the-national-exit-poll-badly-missed-the-latino-vote-in-2010/http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/17000.htmlhttp://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/17000.htmlhttp://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/NALEO_AV_Undoc_Results.pdfhttp://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/NALEO_AV_Undoc_Results.pdfhttp://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/NALEO_AV_Undoc_Results.pdfhttp://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/NALEO_AV_Undoc_Results.pdfhttp://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/NALEO_AV_Undoc_Results.pdfhttp://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/NALEO_AV_Undoc_Results.pdfhttp://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/17000.htmlhttp://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/17000.htmlhttp://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2010/11/04/how-the-national-exit-poll-badly-missed-the-latino-vote-in-2010/http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2010/11/04/how-the-national-exit-poll-badly-missed-the-latino-vote-in-2010/http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2010/11/04/how-the-national-exit-poll-badly-missed-the-latino-vote-in-2010/http://www.nationaljournal.com/congress/rubio-stares-down-the-right-over-undocumented-democrats-20130618http://www.nationaljournal.com/congress/rubio-stares-down-the-right-over-undocumented-democrats-20130618http://www.nationaljournal.com/congress/rubio-stares-down-the-right-over-undocumented-democrats-20130618http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/immigration/report/2013/03/20/57351/the-economic-effects-of-granting-legal-status-and-citizenship-to-undocumented-immigrants/http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/immigration/report/2013/03/20/57351/the-economic-effects-of-granting-legal-status-and-citizenship-to-undocumented-immigrants/http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/immigration/report/2013/03/20/57351/the-economic-effects-of-granting-legal-status-and-citizenship-to-undocumented-immigrants/http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/immigration/report/2013/03/20/57351/the-economic-effects-of-granting-legal-status-and-citizenship-to-undocumented-immigrants/http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/immigration/report/2013/03/20/57351/the-economic-effects-of-granting-legal-status-and-citizenship-to-undocumented-immigrants/http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/01/31/worried-about-the-economy-then-pass-immigration-reform/http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/01/31/worried-about-the-economy-then-pass-immigration-reform/http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/01/31/worried-about-the-economy-then-pass-immigration-reform/http://blogs.rollcall.com/white-house/immigration-bill-officially-dead-boehner-tells-obama-no-vote-this-year/?dczhttp://blogs.rollcall.com/white-house/immigration-bill-officially-dead-boehner-tells-obama-no-vote-this-year/?dczhttp://blogs.rollcall.com/white-house/immigration-bill-officially-dead-boehner-tells-obama-no-vote-this-year/?dczhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/06/11/wonkbook-cantors-stunning-loss-likely-means-immigration-reform-is-dead/http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/06/11/wonkbook-cantors-stunning-loss-likely-means-immigration-reform-is-dead/http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/06/11/wonkbook-cantors-stunning-loss-likely-means-immigration-reform-is-dead/http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/06/11/wonkbook-cantors-stunning-loss-likely-means-immigration-reform-is-dead/


26/29


22 Marc R. Rosenblum and Doris Meissner, The Deporta-tion Dilemma: Reconciling Tough and Humane Enforce-ment (Washington: Migration Policy Institute, 2014),available at http://www.migrationpolicy.org/research/deportation-dilemma-reconciling-tough-humane-enforcement.

23 Human Impact Partners, Family Unity, Family Health:How Family-Focused Immigration Reform Will MeanBetter Health for Children and Families (Oakland, CA:Human Impact Partners, 2013), available at http://www.humanimpact.org/projects/hia-case-stories/family-

unity-family-health-an-inquiry-on-federal-immigration-policy/; Office of Inspector General, Removals InvolvingIllegal Alien Parents of United States Citizen Children(U.S.Department of Homeland Security, 2009), availableat http://www.oig.dhs.gov/assets/Mgmt/OIG_09-15_Jan09.pdf.

24 Brian Bennett, High deportation figures are mislead-ing, The Los Angeles Times, April 1, 2013, available athttp://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-obama-deporta-tions-20140402,0,3514864.story#axzz2ysVLsDqz.

25 Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse, IllegalReentry Becomes Top Criminal Charge, June 10,2011, available at http://trac.syr.edu/immigration/reports/251/.

26 Pastor and Scoggins, Citizen Gain.

27 Rob Paral, Benchmarks of Immigrant Civic Engage-ment (Chicago: Rob Paral and Associates, 2010), avail-able at http://www.robparal.com/downloads/RPA%20report%20to%20The%20Carnegie%20Corporation.pdf.

28 Ibid.

29 Congressional Budget Office, The Economic Impactof S. 744, the Border Security, Economic Opportunity,and Immigration Modernization Act (2013), avail-able at http://cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/44346-Immigration.pdf; Robert Lynchand Patrick Oakford, The Economic Effects of GrantingLegal Status and Citizenship to Undocumented Im-migrants (Washington: Center for American Progress,2013), available at http://www.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/EconomicEffectsCitizen-ship-1.pdf.

30 Pastor and Scoggins, Citizen Gain.

31 Congressional Budget Office, The Economic Impact ofS. 744, the Border Security, Economic Opportunity, andImmigration Modernization Act.

32 Lynch and Oakford, The Economic Effects of GrantingLegal Status and Citizenship to Undocumented Im-migrants.

33 Using 150 percent of the poverty line as an indicator ismore reasonable measure for poverty in such a h igh-cost state as California. Pastor and Marcelli, Whats atStake for the State.

34 Rob Paral, Economic Progress via Legalization: Lessonsfrom the Last Legalization Program (Washington:Immigration Policy Center, 2009), available at http://immigrationpolicy.org/sites/default/files/docs/Eco-

nomic_Progress_via_Legalization_-_Paral_110509.pdf.Parals sample includes unauthorized immigrants whogained legal status. His analysis then surely s ubsumesthose who just gained legal status and also those whosubsequently naturalized.

35 Human Impact Partners, Family Unity, Family Health.

36 Joanna Dreby, How Todays Immigration EnforcementPolicies Impact Children, Families, and Communities(Washington: Center for American Progress, 2012),available at http://americanprogress.org/issues/immigration/report/2012/08/20/27082/how-todays-immigration-enforcement-policies-impact-children-families-and-communities/.

37 Marshall Fitz and Angela Maria Kelley, Stop theConference: The Economic and Fiscal Consequencesof Conference Cancellations Due to Arizonas S.B.1070 (Washington: Center for American Progress,

2010), available athttp://www.americanprogress.org/issues/immigration/report/2010/11/18/8657/stop-the-conference/; Tom Baxter, How Georgias Anti-Immi-gration Law Could Hurt the States (and the Nations)Economy (Washington: Center for American Progress,2011), available athttp://www.americanprogress.org/issues/immigration/report/2011/10/04/10486/how-georgias-anti-immigration-law-could-hurt-the-states-and-the-nations-economy/; Tom Baxter, AlabamasImmigration Disaster: The Harshest Law in the LandHarms the States Economy and Society ( Washington:Center for American Progress, 2012), available at http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/immigration/report/2012/02/15/11117/alabamas-immigration-disaster/.

38 Matt Egan, Silicon Valley Goes to Washington to Takeon Immigration Reform, Fox Business, March 27, 2014,available at http://www.foxbusiness.com/economy-

policy/2014/03/27/silicon-valley-goes-to-washington-to-take-on-immigration-reform/.

39 Peter Skerry, Splitting the Difference on Illegal Im-migration, National Affairs, Winter 2013.

40 Jeb Bush and Clint Bolick, Immigration Wars: Forging anAmerican Solution(New York: Threshold Editions, 2014).

41 The New York Times, Text of Republicans Principleson Immigration, January 30, 2 014, available athttp://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/31/us/politics/text-of-republicans-principles-on-immigration.html?_r=0.

42 See, for example, Kollipara, Wonkbook: Cantors stun-ning loss likely means immigration reform is dead;Dennis, Immigration Bill Officially Dead: Boehner TellsObama No Vote This Year, President Says.

43 Alberta, Rubio Stares Down the Right Over Undocu-mented Democrats.

44 Limbaugh, The Limbaugh Amnesty Plan.

45 Eileen Patten and Mark Hugo Lopez, Are Unauthor-ized Immigrants Overwhelmingly Democrats?, PewResearch Center, July 22, 2013, available at http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2013/07/22/are-unauthor-ized-immigrants-overwhelmingly-democrats/.

46 Matt Barreto, New poll: Latino voters evaluateCongress through their actions on immigration bill,Latino Decisions, June 6, 2013, available at http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2013/06/06/new-poll-latino-voters-evaluate-congress-through-their-actions-on-immigration-bill/.
http://www.migrationpolicy.org/research/deportation-dilemma-reconciling-tough-humane-enforcementhttp://www.migrationpolicy.org/research/deportation-dilemma-reconciling-tough-humane-enforcementhttp://www.migrationpolicy.org/research/deportation-dilemma-reconciling-tough-humane-enforcementhttp://trac.syr.edu/immigration/reports/251/http://trac.syr.edu/immigration/reports/251/http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/immigration/report/2010/11/18/8657/stop-the-conference/http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/immigration/report/2010/11/18/8657/stop-the-conference/http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/immigration/report/2010/11/18/8657/stop-the-conference/http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/immigration/report/2011/10/04/10486/how-georgias-anti-immigration-law-could-hurt-the-states-and-the-nations-economy/http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/immigration/report/2011/10/04/10486/how-georgias-anti-immigration-law-could-hurt-the-states-and-the-nations-economy/http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/immigration/report/2011/10/04/10486/how-georgias-anti-immigration-law-could-hurt-the-states-and-the-nations-economy/http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/immigration/report/2011/10/04/10486/how-georgias-anti-immigration-law-could-hurt-the-states-and-the-nations-economy/http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/31/us/politics/text-of-republicans-principles-on-immigration.html?_r=0http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/31/us/politics/text-of-republicans-principles-on-immigration.html?_r=0http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/31/us/politics/text-of-republicans-principles-on-immigration.html?_r=0http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/31/us/politics/text-of-republicans-principles-on-immigration.html?_r=0http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/31/us/politics/text-of-republicans-principles-on-immigration.html?_r=0http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/31/us/politics/text-of-republicans-principles-on-immigration.html?_r=0http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/immigration/report/2011/10/04/10486/how-georgias-anti-immigration-law-could-hurt-the-states-and-the-nations-economy/http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/immigration/report/2011/10/04/10486/how-georgias-anti-immigration-law-could-hurt-the-states-and-the-nations-economy/http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/immigration/report/2011/10/04/10486/how-georgias-anti-immigration-law-could-hurt-the-states-and-the-nations-economy/http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/immigration/report/2011/10/04/10486/how-georgias-anti-immigration-law-could-hurt-the-states-and-the-nations-economy/http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/immigration/report/2010/11/18/8657/stop-the-conference/http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/immigration/report/2010/11/18/8657/stop-the-conference/http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/immigration/report/2010/11/18/8657/stop-the-conference/http://trac.syr.edu/immigration/reports/251/http://trac.syr.edu/immigration/reports/251/http://www.migrationpolicy.org/research/deportation-dilemma-reconciling-tough-humane-enforcementhttp://www.migrationpolicy.org/research/deportation-dilemma-reconciling-tough-humane-enforcementhttp://www.migrationpolicy.org/research/deportation-dilemma-reconciling-tough-humane-enforcement


27/29


47 Respondents were asked how likely they would be tovote for Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) in the 2016 presiden-tial election specifically relating to his leadership rolein passing S. 744. Fifty-four percent of Latino voterssaid they were likely to vote for Sen. Rubio, including50 percent of Latinos who voted for President Obamain 2012, 46 percent of Latino independents, and 55percent of Latino voters ages 18 to 34. However, absentany prompting about Sen. Rubio working to ensure afinal immigration bill is passed, he failed to even reachthe 30 percent support mark among Latinos. See MattBarreto, 2016 Forecast: Rubio, Bush, Ryan Have Chance

to Win over 40 percent of Latino Vote, Latino Decisions,July 7, 2013, available at http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2013/07/02/2016-forecast-rubio-bush-ryan-have-chance-to-win-over-40-of-latino-vote/.

48 Alfonso Aguilar, On Latinos, Listen to the Gipper,Politico, May 5, 2010, available at http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0510/36754.html.

49 Roberto Suro, Richard Fry, and Jeffrey S. Passel, Hispan-ics and the 2004 Election: Population, Electorate andVoters (Washington: Pew Research H ispanic TrendsProject, 2005), available at http://www.pewhispanic.org/files/reports/48.pdf.

50 Patten and Lopez, Are Unauthorized ImmigrantsOverwhelmingly Democrats?

51 Hispanic Nashville, Manuel remembers November

1986: Reagans Amnesty, November 2, 2011, availableat http://www.hispanicnashville.com/2011/11/remem-bering-amnesty.html.

52 David Damore and Adrian Pantoja, Anti-ImmigrantPolitics and Lessons for the GOP from California(Seattle: Latino Decisions, 2013), available at http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/wp-content/up-loads/2013/10/Prop187Effect.pdf.

53 Moreover, Matt A. Barreto, Ricardo Ramirez, and NathanD. Woods research on the rapid increase in Latinovoting in California shows that it was not IRCA natu-ralizations, but rather demographic and mobilizationvariables that primarily pulled Latinos into the elector-ate and spurred their voting. Matt A. Barreto, RicardoRamirez, and Nathan D. Woods, Are Naturalized VotersDriving the California Latino Electorate? Measuring theEffect of IRCA Citizens on Latino Voting,Social Science

Quarterly86 (4) (2005): 792811.

54 Patricia Kilday Hart, Young Houston couple in Tampato save the world, The Houston Chronicle, August 29,2012; Griselda Nevarez, Some Latino voters are stillundecided as presidential election nears, Voxxi, Sep-tember 30, 2012.

55 Some attribute the Latino awakening there to state-wide anti-immigrant policies, especially a 2006 lawthat required local law enforcement to report anyonearrested for criminal offense and suspected of beingundocumented to immigration authorities. PhilipWolgin and Ann Garcia, Immigration Is Changing thePolitical Landscape in Key States (Washington: Centerfor American Progress, 2013), available at http://cdn.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/ImmigrationPolitics.pdf.

56 Latino Decisions, Nevada 2010 Results, available athttp://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/recent-polls/nevada-2010-results/ (last accessed July 2014); Seguraand Barreto, How the National Exit Poll Badly Missedthe Latino Vote in 2010.

57 Mark Hugo Lopez and Paul Taylor, Latino Voters in the2012 Election (Washington: Pew Research Hispanic

Trends Project, 2012), available at http://www.pewhis-panic.org/2012/11/07/latino-voters-in-the-2012-elec-tion/;Shane Goldmacher, Obama OverwhelminglyWon Asian-American Vote, National Journal, November8, 2012, available at http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/obama-overwhelmingly-won-asian-american-vote-20121108.

58 Americas Voice, New Five State Latino BattlegroundPoll Highlights Democrats Lead, Growing Voter Enthu-

siasm, Press release, July 27, 2012, available at http://americasvoice.org/press_releases/new-five-state-latino-battleground-poll-highlights-democrats-lead-growing-voter-enthusiasm/.

59 Matt Barreto, Latino voters personal connectionsto immigration reform, Latino Decisions, March 18,2013, available at http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2013/03/18/latino-voters-personal-connections-to-immigration-reform/.

60 Barreto and Garin, House GOP Inaction on CIR Damag-ing Republican Party Image.

61 Ibid.

62 Ibid., p. 22.

63 Paral, Benchmarks of Immigrant Civic Engagement;

Oakford, The Latino Electorate by Immigrant Genera-tion; Rob Paral & Associates, The New American Elec-torate: The Growing Political Power of Immigrants and

Their Children (Washington: Immigration Policy Center,2008), available athttp:// immigrationpolicy.org/sites/default/files/docs/NewCitizenVotersWEBversion.pdf.

64 Louis DeSipio, Frank Bean, and Ruben G. Rumbaut,Immigration Status and Naturalization Across Genera-tions: The Consequences of Parental UnauthorizedMigration or Naturalization on the Civic and PoliticalBehaviors of 1.5 and 2nd G eneration Young Adults inLos Angeles, paper presented at the annual meeting ofthe American Political Science Association, WashingtonD.C., September 1, 2005.

65 We estimated from the 2012 IPUMS ACS that about85 percent of children with a n oncitizen parent arecitizens.

66 This figure declines slightly as we adjust for mortality.See technical appendix.

67 See the discussion of the likely voters as a direct resultof immigration reform in the technical appendix.

68 Michael P. McDonald, Turnout in the 2012 PresidentialElection, The Huffington Post, February 11, 2013, avail-able at http://w ww.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/turnout-in-the-2012-presi_b_2663122.html.

69 As noted in the technical appendix, both these figuresare based on calculations made using the 2012 IPUMSACS file. Given that the 2012 ACS is the most recentdata available to generate the measures reported, andfor ease of reporting, we refer to the estimates in thetext as current figures. In our actual calculations, weinclude a mortality adjustment, which is minor because

this is a young population.

70 Barreto and Garin, House GOP Inaction on CIR Damag-ing Republican Party Image.
http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/recent-polls/nevada-2010-results/http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/recent-polls/nevada-2010-results/http://www.pewhispanic.org/2012/11/07/latino-voters-in-the-2012-election/http://www.pewhispanic.org/2012/11/07/latino-voters-in-the-2012-election/http://www.pewhispanic.org/2012/11/07/latino-voters-in-the-2012-election/http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/obama-overwhelmingly-won-asian-american-vote-20121108http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/obama-overwhelmingly-won-asian-american-vote-20121108http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/obama-overwhelmingly-won-asian-american-vote-20121108http://americasvoice.org/press_releases/new-five-state-latino-battleground-poll-highlights-democrats-lead-growing-voter-enthusiasm/http://americasvoice.org/press_releases/new-five-state-latino-battleground-poll-highlights-democrats-lead-growing-voter-enthusiasm/http://americasvoice.org/press_releases/new-five-state-latino-battleground-poll-highlights-democrats-lead-growing-voter-enthusiasm/http://americasvoice.org/press_releases/new-five-state-latino-battleground-poll-highlights-democrats-lead-growing-voter-enthusiasm/http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2013/03/18/latino-voters-personal-connections-to-immigration-reform/http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2013/03/18/latino-voters-personal-connections-to-immigration-reform/http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2013/03/18/latino-voters-personal-connections-to-immigration-reform/http://immigrationpolicy.org/sites/default/files/docs/NewCitizenVotersWEBversion.pdfhttp://immigrationpolicy.org/sites/default/files/docs/NewCitizenVotersWEBversion.pdfhttp://immigrationpolicy.org/sites/default/files/docs/NewCitizenVotersWEBversion.pdfhttp://immigrationpolicy.org/sites/default/files/docs/NewCitizenVotersWEBversion.pdfhttp://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2013/03/18/latino-voters-personal-connections-to-immigration-reform/http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2013/03/18/latino-voters-personal-connections-to-immigration-reform/http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2013/03/18/latino-voters-personal-connections-to-immigration-reform/http://americasvoice.org/press_releases/new-five-state-latino-battleground-poll-highlights-democrats-lead-growing-voter-enthusiasm/http://americasvoice.org/press_releases/new-five-state-latino-battleground-poll-highlights-democrats-lead-growing-voter-enthusiasm/http://americasvoice.org/press_releases/new-five-state-latino-battleground-poll-highlights-democrats-lead-growing-voter-enthusiasm/http://americasvoice.org/press_releases/new-five-state-latino-battleground-poll-highlights-democrats-lead-growing-voter-enthusiasm/http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/obama-overwhelmingly-won-asian-american-vote-20121108http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/obama-overwhelmingly-won-asian-american-vote-20121108http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/obama-overwhelmingly-won-asian-american-vote-20121108http://www.pewhispanic.org/2012/11/07/latino-voters-in-the-2012-election/http://www.pewhispanic.org/2012/11/07/latino-voters-in-the-2012-election/http://www.pewhispanic.org/2012/11/07/latino-voters-in-the-2012-election/http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/recent-polls/nevada-2010-results/http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/recent-polls/nevada-2010-results/


28/29


71 Elise Foley, John McCain On Immigration: NotGiving Up On Path To Citizenship, The HuffingtonPost, August 27, 2013, available at http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/08/27/john-mccain-immigration_n_3824807.html.

72 Dave Cook, GOP Strategist: Appeal to Latino voters ispartys great challenge, The Christian Science Monitor,March 8, 2012, available at http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/monitor_breakfast/2012/0308/GOP-strate-gist-Appeal-to-Latino-voters-is-party-s-great-challenge.

73 John Roberts, For Republicans To Learn How To WinOver Hispanic Voters, They Need To Look To Texas, FoxNews Latino, February 19, 2014, available at http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/politics/2014/02/19/for-republicans-to-learn-how-to-finally-win-over-hispanic-voters-need-to-look/.

74 Republican National Committee, Growth and Oppor-tunity Project (2013), available at http://goproject.gop.com/RNC_Growth_Opportunity_Book_2013.pdf.

75 Fox News, Fox News Poll: Voters say US still in reces-sion, glad they know Snowden secrets, January 22,2014, available at http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2014/01/22/fox-news-poll-voters-say-us-still-in-recession-glad-know-snowden-secrets/.

76 Robert P. Giloth, Daniel Cox, and Juhem Navarro-Rivera,What Americans (Still) Want From Immigration Reform,

American Public Opinion (Washington: Public ReligionResearch Institute, 2013), available at http://publicre-ligion.org/site/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/2013.Immigration_Phase2.WEB-copy.pdf; Julia Preston, InReport, 63 percent Back Way to Get Citizenship, TheNew York Times, November 25, 2013, available at http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/25/us/in-report-63-back-way-to-get-citizenship.html.

77 Asian American Justice Center and others, Be-hind the Numbers: Post-Election Survey of AsianAmerican and Pacific Islander Voters in 2012 (2013),available at http://www.naasurvey.com/resources/Presentations/2012-aapipes-national.pdf.

78 Steven J. Ruggles and others, Integrated Public UseMicrodata Series: Version 5.0 [Machine-ReadableDatabase](Minneapolis: University of Minnesota,2010), available athttps://usa.ipums.org/usa/index.

shtml.

79 Congressional Budget Office, The Economic Impact ofS. 744, the Border Security, Economic Opportunity, andImmigration Modernization Act; Lynch and Oakford,The Economic Effects of Granting Legal Status andCitizenship to Undocumented Immigrants.

80 Passel and Cohn, Unauthorized Immigrant Population.

81 Bryan C. Baker, Naturalization Rates among IRCA Immi-grants: A 2009 Update (Washington: U.S. Departmentof Homeland Security Office of Immigration Statistics,2010), available athttp://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/

statistics/publications/irca-natz-fs-2009.pdf; NancyRytina, IRCA Legalization Effects: Lawful PermanentResidence and Naturalization through 2001 (Wash-ington: U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service,2002), available at http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/statistics/publications/irca0114int.pdf.

82 Jeffrey S. Passel, DVera Cohn, and Ana Gonzalez-Bar-rera, Population Decline of Unauthorized ImmigrantsStalls, May Have Reversed (Washington: Pew ResearchHispanic Trends Project, 2013), available at http://www.pewhispanic.org/files/2013/09/Unauthorized-Sept-2013-FINAL.pdf.

83 Congressional Budget Office,Cost Estimate: S. 744 Bor-der Security, Economic Opportunity, and ImmigrationModernization Act (2013), available at http:// www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/s744.pdf.

84 The figure for new LPRs by 2028 includes 3.9 millionadjusting from RPI status between 2025 and 2028, and1.4 million adjusting from agricultural worker status by2023.

85 Congressional Budget Office, S.744 Border Security,Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Moderniza-tion Act (2013), pp. 2123, available at http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/s744.pdf.

86 Manuel Pastor and others, Nurturing Naturalization:Could Lowering the Fee Help? (Los Angeles: Center forthe Study of Immigrant Integration, 2013), available athttp://csii.usc.edu/documents/Nurturing_Naturaliza-tion_final_web.pdf.

87 Passel, Cohn, and Gonzalez-Barrera, Population Declineof Unauthorized I mmigrants Stalls, May Have Reversed.
http://goproject.gop.com/RNC_Growth_Opportunity_Book_2013.pdfhttp://goproject.gop.com/RNC_Growth_Opportunity_Book_2013.pdfhttps://usa.ipums.org/usa/index.shtmlhttps://usa.ipums.org/usa/index.shtmlhttp://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/statistics/publications/irca-natz-fs-2009.pdfhttp://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/statistics/publications/irca-natz-fs-2009.pdfhttp://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/s744.pdfhttp://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/s744.pdfhttp://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/s744.pdfhttp://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/s744.pdfhttp://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/statistics/publications/irca-natz-fs-2009.pdfhttp://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/statistics/publications/irca-natz-fs-2009.pdfhttps://usa.ipums.org/usa/index.shtmlhttps://usa.ipums.org/usa/index.shtmlhttp://goproject.gop.com/RNC_Growth_Opportunity_Book_2013.pdfhttp://goproject.gop.com/RNC_Growth_Opportunity_Book_2013.pdf


29/29

The Center for American Progress is a nonpartisan research and educational institute

dedicated to promoting a strong, just and free America that ensures opportunity

for all. We believe that Americans are bound together by a common commitment to

these values and we aspire to ensure that our national policies reflect these values.

We work to find progressive and pragmatic solutions to significant domestic and

international problems and develop policy proposals that foster a government that

is of the people, by the people, and for the people.

The Center for the Study of Immigrant Integration, or CSII, at the University of Southern

California aims to remake the narrative for understanding and the dialogue for shaping,

immigrant integration in America. Our intent is to identify and evaluate the mutual

benefits of immigrant integration for the native born and immigrants and to study the

pace of the ongoing transformation in different locations. CSII brings together three

emphases: scholarship that draws on academic theory and rigorous research; data that

provides information structured to highlight the process of immigrant integration over

time; and engagement that seeks to create new dialogues.

Documents

Citizenship Matters