CISAC Overview 2007

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center for internationalsecurity and cooperation

stanford universitycenter overview 20062007

Insight ImpactKnowledge to Build a Safer World

CISAC


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photo: (cover) CISACco-director Siegfried Hecker visited with students in an English class at Middle School 1 in Pyongyang,

during his fall 2006 visit to North Korea with John Lewis, CISACs founding co-director. (photo by John Lewis)

Knowledge to Build a Safer World

The Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) is a multidisciplinary

research center within the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies atStanford University.

As an integral part of one of the worlds leading universities, CISACis committedto producing knowledge to build a safer world.

CISACs research provides insight on current and emerging global threats, from

different academic fields as well as from diverse practical and political perspectives.

CISACuses this rich insight to make an impact, helping to build a safer world

by actively engaging with policymakers worldwide.

CISACextends its insight & impact by training the next generation ofsecurity specialists who will carry forward this important work.

CISAC

CISACs Mission

To produce policy-relevant research on international security problems.

To influence policymaking in international security.

To train the next generation of security specialists.


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cisac 1

CISACPrograms

Contents

3 Letter from the Co-Directors

4 Policy-Relevant Research

10 Influencing Policy

16 Training the Next Generation

22 Honors Graduates

24 Selected Publications and Presentations

28 CISAC People

30 Donors

31 Financial Highlights

CISACs Interschool HonorsProgram in InternationalSecurity Studies is buildinga cadre of professionalswho will help lead andinfluence policymaking foryears to come.

Studying in Basra, Iraq,CISAC fellow David Patelfound Shia clerics inspirednew civic participationamong their followers afterSaddam Husseins defeat.

Siegfried Hecker, CISACsnew co-director, trains a newgeneration of internationalsecurity experts at Stanford,while working with scientistsaround the world to securenuclear weapons materials.

CISAC honors student SherriHansen interviewed formercombatants in Sierra Leoneto find out why some rebelgroups use child soldiersand others do not.

pg 5 pg15 pg18 pg22


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CISACs directing staff: Siegfried Hecker, co-director;

Elizabeth Gardner, associate director for administration

and external affairs; Lynn Eden, associate director for

research; and Scott Sagan, co-director.

There can be no lasting security without cooperationthe last C in CISAC.Siegfried Hecker and Scott Sagan, CISAC co-directors

CISAC


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Letter from the Co-Directors As the Iraqi situation continues to decline, Afghanistan slips

backward, Russia is irritated by recent U.S. security moves in Eastern Europe, and Iran

pushes ahead with its nuclear program, the United States is learning that there can be no

lasting security without cooperationthe last C in CISAC.

The Iraq Study Group, which had CISACs Bill Perry as a member, called for cooperation

with Iran and Syria to reduce the risks of further escalation in the civil war in Iraq. In his

Foreign Affairs article, Scott Sagan pointed to the need for the United States to cooperate

with Russia, China, and the European powers to reduce Tehrans security fears, as a

necessary step to diminish Irans incentives to acquire nuclear weapons. John Lewis and

Sig Hecker returned from their latest trip to North Korea to help develop the cooperation

for peace building and denuclearization. Steve Stedman, Jim Fearon, Jeremy Weinstein, and

many of their students examined the kinds of multilateral cooperation that will be needed

to address the interrelated problems of civil war, food scarcity, environmental degradation,

and poverty in Africa today.

In addition to the centers research on such key problems, we take great pride in watching

the next generation of specialists grow. Predoctoral fellows complete their dissertations;

postdoctoral fellows publish articles and books and move into influential jobs; and Stanford

undergraduate honors students get turned on by international security challenges and

decide to dig deeper in their future studies.This Center Overview shares just some of the highlights of the past years work by our

faculty, fellows, and studentsthe insights they offer on security problems around the

globe and the impact they have had on international policies. Youll also meet a few Friends

ofCISAC as well as some researchers in residence at the center in 20072008 who will

continue to make CISAC a vibrant success.

We hope this review heightens your interest in CISAC. We invite you to visit the center,

participate in our seminars and workshops, and contribute to our efforts to solve international

security problems. Come watch our next generation of specialists grow. We know you

will be impressed by their enthusiasm and dedication. We thank the foundations, national

laboratories, companies, and many private individuals whose generosity helps make thiswork possible. And we very much welcome newcomers to the center.

Siegfried S. Hecker Scott D. Sagan

letter from the co-directors cisac 3

Center for International Securityand Cooperation


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CISACs policy-relevant research provides insight on current and emergingglobal threats, from different academic fields as well as from diverse practical

and political perspectives.

Sherri Hansen, 2007 CISAC honors graduate, with children of

research colleagues in Sierra Leone, where she did field research

in summer 2006. Her thesis won the William J. Perry Award.

Insight


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Sherri Hansen

Explaining the Use of Child Soldiers

Why do some rebel groups use child soldiers, while others do not? In research for her CISAC

undergraduate honors thesis, Sherri Hansen found a lot of reasons advanced poverty,

low education levels, high rates of orphanhood among the child recruits, or perhaps an

abundance of small arms that children could easily handle.

But these reasons did not explain why two otherwise similar armed groups would make

very different choices about employing childrenas was the case with the Revolutionary

United Front (RUF) and Civil Defense Forces (CDF) in Sierra Leone.

To understand each groups reasoning about the use of children in war, Hansen traveled

in summer 2006 to Sierra Leone, where she interviewed 60 former combatants, including

former child soldiers and mid-level commanders. Hansen got in touch with her interviewees

through PRIDE, a non-governmental organization that does advocacy for ex-combatants.

The organization had previously served as a local survey partner for Hansens thesis advisor,

Jeremy Weinstein, a political science professor affiliated with CISAC, when he interviewed

ex-combatants in Sierra Leone.

The RUF and CDF emerged in similar conditions, Hansen said, but they had different

uses of child soldiers. The RUF forcibly recruited children and employed them in combat.The CDF used a small number of children and in less dangerous support roles.

She found a cost-benefit analysis underlying the groups decisions. Although the forcible

recruitment of children is often explained in terms of its military utility, it also carries a

high social cost, she said. Using children, especially in combat, would cost a group social

support from its community, which would have to be weighed against benefits such as a

monetarily cheap, malleable labor force.

For the RUF, an opportunistic rebellion that grew out of a student revolution, forcing

children into combat was a rational strategy, because [the RUF] didnt have to marshal

civilian support and didnt necessarily want it, Hansen explained. The RUF could afford

the high social cost of using child conscripts, because it looted local resources, includingdiamonds, to support itself.

The CDF, on the other hand, collaborated with civilians and relied heavily on community

support. The group did not risk losing that support by committing children to combat.

Current international prohibitions against using child soldiers have little effect on groups

that are not bound by social support or norms, Hansen pointed out. She recommended

treating the use of child soldiers as a war crime, in and of itself, to help enforce the

prohibitions. The extensive presence of children in an armed force is easier to prove than

[showing] commanders had knowledge of atrocities individual soldiers were committing.

She added that criminalizing the practice in this way would also pressure national

governments to refrain from supporting militias that use child soldiers.

policy-relevant research cisac 5

Policy-Relevant Research


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photo: CISACfaculty member Jeremy Weinstein explored connections betweenAIDSand sub-par governance in Uganda.

6 cisac policy-relevant research

Deadly Connections

Understanding Links Among Diverse Threats

Why do civil wars occur in the poorest states? How could global climate change worsen the

spread of malaria and dengue fever in some regions? Does hunger breed armed conflict?

CISAC and FSI senior fellow Stephen Stedman found claims linking threats such as civil

war and poverty but little systematic study of these connections, as he directed research

for the United Nations High-Level Panel on Threats, Challenges, and Change in 20032004.

Rosamond Naylor, also an FSI senior fellow, was thinking along similar lines as she

started the Program on Food Security and the Environment (FSE), a joint program between

FSI and the Woods Institute for the Environment. She designed FSE to bring together

experts in climate science, medicine, economics, and other fields to seek innovative

solutions to global hunger.Naylor and Stedman collaborated to start Deadly Connections, a research project directed

by Naylor under the FSE program, to investigate links among a range of security threats.

In 20062007, its first year, the project convened political scientists, economists, medical

doctors, agriculturists, and climate scientists to explore policy issues for potential collaborative

study. In a series of six meetings, they examined connections between war and disease,

water quality and disease, scarcity and civil strife, poverty and civil war recruitment.

Jeremy Weinstein, an assistant professor of political science affiliated with CISAC and

Stanfords Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law (CDDRL), presented

evidence of an often-claimed connection between AIDS and social instability or sub-par

governance, from his study of Uganda. Like other presenters, he noted the need for furtherresearch in Uganda and elsewhere, to clarify points he had not resolved.

Knowing how and why HIV/AIDS undermines stability is essential for thinking about

policy responses, Weinstein said.

In the years final session, David Battisti, an atmospheric scientist at the University of

Washington, spoke on climate change in conflict-prone countries in Africas Sahel, a wide

band between the Sahara and more tropical regions to the south. He noted that climate

change models predict the Sahel will warm to levels far beyond those experienced before,

likely posing a severe threat to the regions mainly agricultural societies.

I had not seen global climate change as something that might bear directly on politics in

countries I study in Africa, said James Fearon, a political science professor affiliated with

CISAC and CDDRL. But due to David Battistis presentation Im now thinking otherwise.


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photo: FormerCISACco-director William Perry advised Sheena Chestnut on her influential 2005 CISAChonors thesis,

The Sopranos State? North Korean Involvement in Criminal Activity and Implications for International Security.

cisac 7policy-relevant research

Sheena Chestnut

Preventing North Koreas Smuggling Networks from Expanding to Nuclear Trade

In her 2005 CISAC honors thesis, Sheena Chestnut suggested that North Korean counterfeiting

and trafficking operations pose a serious international security concern, as they could be

expanded without detection for use in smuggling nuclear-weapons-related materials or

technology to other nations or terrorists.

While Chestnut pursued a masters degree in international relations at Oxford University

on a Marshall Scholarship, her thesis, The Sopranos State? North Korean Involvement

in Criminal Activity and Implications for International Security, which the Nautilus Institute

published online in 2005, was being quoted in policy circles. It was cited in an April 2006

U.S. Senate subcommittee hearing on illicit activity funding the North Korean regime and,

in Seoul, the South Korean government drew from Chestnuts thesis in a presentationbefore the national assembly in early 2006. In July 2006 a New York Times magazine article

referred to the thesis, as did a Time article in July 2007.

The influence of Chestnuts research can only be expected to increase now that it appears,

revised and updated, in the summer 2007 International Security, a leading scholarly journal

that is highly influential in policy debate.

In the article, Chestnut, now a doctoral student in government at Harvard University,

outlines conditions that might lead the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea (DPRK) to

engage in illicit nuclear tradea possibility that CISAC co-director Siegfried Hecker and

former co-director William Perry, among others, have indicated as the greatest security

threat posed by North Koreas nuclear weapons program.The DPRK is more likely to sell nuclear material or technology to prevent its situation from

deteriorating untenably, rather than simply to make a profit, Chestnut said. Paradoxically,

measures intended to constrict DPRK smuggling capabilities, by cutting off the leaderships

illicit flow of hard currency, may actually increase its motivation to conduct a sale.

Chestnut posits that deterring North Korean transfer of nuclear materials is within

policymakers means. Counter-smuggling and nonproliferation efforts should be part of a

comprehensive security strategy, she said.

Although halting proliferation and stopping criminal activity can sometimes be in tension

with each other, Chestnut commented, as weve seen in the past year of dealing with

the DPRK, we cant have a successful policy that doesnt incorporate both aspects, and its

possible to make them complement rather than compete with each other.


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Interview with Jacob Shapiro

Finding Ways to Exploit Terrorists Weaknesses

Jacob Shapiro studies economic motivations in terrorist organizations and the organizational

challenges terrorists face. Armed with a better understanding of these factors, policymakers

can pursue strategies that will exploit terrorists weaknesses, he explains.

As a CISAC predoctoral fellow, Shapiro advised Department of Homeland Security officials

on revising the multilevel alert system and critiqued TOPOFF-3, a federally organized

terrorism-response exercise. He joined the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point as an

affiliate, collaborating on the analysis of documents captured from terrorists. A former

Navy officer, Shapiro completed his dissertation, The Terrorists Challenge: Security, Efficiency,

Control, and earned his masters in economics and PhD in political science from Stanford.

He joins the faculty at Princeton Universitys Department of Politics in winter 2008.

Q: What impact do you hope your research will have, and on whom?

Id like to build a greater appreciation among both policymakers and the public for how

normal [terrorist] groups are. When we treat these groups as special, we do two negative

things. First, we blind ourselves to certain opportunities for degrading their ability to conduct

attacks. Second, we greatly exaggerate the threat. These are organizations made of normal

human beings, with all the frailties, personality conflicts, and disagreements that implies.

They face a very hard task, and we should not expect them to be any better than other

organizations operating in similarly difficult environments.

Q: How did you get involved with the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point? What doesyour work with the center involve?

A close friend, Lt. Col. Joe Felter, took over as director of the CTC after finishing his PhD in

political science here at Stanford. He asked me to help out with its first report analyzing

the U.S. governments database of captured al-Qaida documents something called the

Harmony Database.

Our first report laid out why al-Qaida was trying to become so bureaucratic before the

invasion of Afghanistan and why it was doing so. Our analysis stresses that, by their nature,

terrorist organizations such as al-Qaida face difficulties in almost any environment.

Many of their problems are common to other types of organizations. For example, leaders

must delegate certain duties to middlemen or low-level operatives, but differences in

personal preferences between the leadership and their operatives can create problems for

photos: (above) Jacob Shapiro analyzed captured al Qaida documents, assembled

in a database at West Points Combating Terrorism Center. (right) Al Qaida kept

employee training and education records, including student identification cards, such

as this one for Said Bakar. (Harmony Database, Combating Terrorism Center)

8 cisac policy-relevant research


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the organization. To combat threats

posted by al-Qaida, we emphasize

aggravating existing conflicts among the

groups members.

Our second Harmony report just

came out. In it we analyzed al-Qaidas

experiences in the Horn of Africa.

I am helping frame and understand

what were seeing in the data, be it

internal correspondence from al-Qaida or

statistical patterns of violence in Iraq.

Q: Could you say a little about how your

Navy service may inform your research?

It makes me much more sensitive to

framing questions in ways that are useful

to policymakers. Often in social science

theres a tension between using concepts

that are theoretically solicitous and

concepts that have clear practical impli-

cations. My experiences lead me to err on

the side of practical implications.

Also, it made me very aware of how

important organizations are. The Navyis a fascinating conglomeration of

organizations with distinct cultures that

are independent for much of their

training cycle but must operate in an

integrated fashion when they deploy.

Seeing that certainly made me more

attuned to how much internal structures

influence organizational behavior.

cisac 9policy-relevant research

Karen and Mo ZukermanSupporting Interdisciplinary Synergies

Karen D. Zukerman holds an AB (anthropology)from Stanford University and an MA (archaeology)from New York University. She is a trustee ofEarthwatch Institute, serves on The Council of

Fellows at the Morgan Library, and sits on theCISAC Advisors Group. Morris E. Zukerman is thepresident of M.E. Zukerman & Co. in New Yorkand chairman of M.E. Zukerman Investments inLondon, has served on the boards of Harvard,Phillips Academy Andover, and The SpenceSchool, and is an honorary fellow of KingsCollege, Cambridge University.

Q: How did you learn about CISAC?Our daughter, Sarah 03, took part in the CISAChonors program, and we found it remarkablethat undergraduate education would include an

interdisciplinary program on issues of inter-national affairs. Even more remarkable was theopportunity presented to undergraduates tointeract with scholars in many fields and to workwith mentors in positions of distinguishedgovernment service. The inherent synergies ofthis access struck us as a seminal way forwardand offered us an opportunity to witness itsinspiration on the students in the program.

Q: Why do you support CISAC?We think it is important that the work of thecenter is nonpartisan. At a time when govern-

ments in America and around the world find itdifficult to formulate credible assessments andpolicies to address the problems of our time,the university and the center gather the bestthinking to seek peaceful resolution to themany conflicts around the globe. Diplomacyalone without the guidance of scholars withbackgrounds in history, language, law, science,and culture will be hard pressed to offer singularsolutions. CISACs work inspired the establish-ment of The Zukerman Fellows, who willbecome the next generation of scholars andpolicy experts to build a more peaceful world.

photo: Karen Zukerman andCISACs Stephen Stedman.

When we treat [terrorist] groups as special, we do twonegative things. First, we blind ourselves to certainopportunities for degrading their ability to conductattacks. Second, we greatly exaggerate the threat.

Jacob Shapiro, CISAC predoctoral fellow


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CISACs John Lewis and colleagues, including CISACs current

co-director Siegfried Hecker, inside the control room of the

5-megawatt (electric) nuclear reactor at Yongbyon, Democratic

Peoples Republic of Korea, in 2004. (DPRK) (Inset) The nuclear

facilities at Yongbyon. (Digital Globe-ISIS)

CISAC makes an impact, engaging with leaders worldwide and influencingpolicy that will build a safer world.

Impact


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influencing policy cisac 11

Influencing Policy

CISAC Scholars Set the Stage for Resumed Negotiations with North Korea

The Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea conducted missile tests in July 2006, followed by

its first nuclear weapon test on October 9. At the end of that month, it announced it would

return to the six-party negotiations with China, Japan, Russia, South Korea, and the United

States stalled since September 2005to discuss denuclearization of the Korean peninsula.

Siegfried Hecker, CISAC co-director; John Lewis, director of the Project on Peace and

Cooperation in the Asian-Pacific Region at CISAC; and Robert Carlin, a CISAC visiting

scholar, were in Pyongyang on October 31, when North Korea announced its interest in

resuming the six-party talks.

And in March 2007, as DPRK vice foreign minister Kim Kye Gwan headed to New York to

meet with U.S. assistant secretary of state Christopher Hill, he requested a private, two-day

meeting with Lewis, Hecker, Carlin, and a small group of colleagues.

For North Korea, bilateral talks with the United States were key to making multilateral

talks work. As Lewis briefed U.S. officials privately and later summed up in a Washington

Post op-ed with Carlin, Above all, [North Korea] wants, and has pursued steadily since 1991,

a long-term, strategic relationship with the United States.

Kim told his West Coast hosts that he credited Lewis with bringing U.S. officials around

to negotiating with North Korea and was pleased that Washington had decided to engagethe DPRK directly. That decision was formalized in a six-party agreement on February 13,

and the meeting in March was the first step in implementing that agreement.

Diplomacy is not a reward, Lewis says. Its a way you get things done.

After their DPRK visit October 31November 4, 2006, Lewis and Hecker shared their

insights with policymakers. Hecker and Carlin then gave a public briefing in Washington,

with Jack Pritchard, a Korea expert who had been on the trip.

We should not discount the success of their nuclear [weapon] test, Hecker said. However,

I believe they are still a long way from having a missile-capable nuclear design, added the

emeritus director of Los Alamos National Laboratory. This was Heckers third time visiting

North Korea and meeting with the director of its main nuclear facilities.Hecker estimated North Koreas ability to make plutonium fuel for weapons remains

about one bombs worth per year, with their 5-megawatt (electric) nuclear reactor. A

50-MW(e) reactor with a capacity 10 times greater than the one now operating was left

unfinished under the 1994 DPRKU.S. Agreed Framework. Hecker found out that the DPRK

is having difficulties completing the reactor and that it would be several years before the

reactor could be completed, if at all.

Carlin said the streets of Pyongyang were crowded with cars, trucks, and motorcycles.

There were well-dressed people on the streets like I hadnt seen before, said the former

government analyst who has traveled to North Korea 26 times since the 1970s.

We heard from them that they realize a country that cannot successfully carry on

international trade is a country that cannot develop and survive, Carlin said.


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12 cisac influencing policy

Dave Ryan and Lauren Young

Mobilizing Students to FightAIDSin Africa

Dave Ryan and Lauren Young concluded their CISAC undergraduate honors theses with

policy recommendations, some of which are already on the desks of policymakers, according

to CISAC and FSI senior fellow Stephen Stedman, who co-taught the program.

But these two honors students are making an impact beyond their policy-oriented CISAC

work, as Ryan takes over this fall as executive director ofFACE AIDS, a nonprofit organization

that Young co-founded with two Stanford classmates in 2005.

With a mission to mobilize and inspire students to fight AIDS in Africa, the organization

has opened more than 150 chapters at colleges and high schools nationwide and has raised

more than $750,000 to fund comprehensive health care by Partners in Health in Rwanda

to mitigate the AIDS epidemic.Among its education and fundraising activities, FACE AIDS distributes beaded AIDS-ribbon

pins, which provide an income to the AIDS support group members in Zambia who make

them by hand. The pins raise awarenessfor AIDS testing, in communities where they are

made, and for AIDS support, on U.S. campuses where they are distributed.

Young and classmates Katie Bollbach and Jonny Dorsey came up with the idea for FACE

AIDS while working in a refugee camp in Mwange, Zambia, in summer 2005. The trio took

a year off from their Stanford studies to establish the nonprofit.

Young sees social justice as a central theme in her CISAC honors researchassessing the

World Banks approach to helping nations rebuild after warand her work with FACE AIDS.

Ryan, who first came to CISAC as a freshman research assistant to CISAC associatedirector Lynn Eden, finds a significant connection between AIDS and international security,

including nuclear nonproliferationhis thesis topic. States suffering from the poverty,

orphaning, and disorder that AIDS helps create can become attractive locations for terrorist

training camps, black-market nuclear weapons proliferation, and general violence and

instability that can spread beyond national borders, he explained.

FACE AIDS new executive director says he looks forward to expanding [the organizations]

national presence by adding chapters and improving its use of media.

But it is most inspiring for me to hear the personal stories of students for whom FACE

AIDS has changed their career paths, inspired them to travel to Africa, or even just broadened

their awareness of the issue, Ryan said. These stories coming from across the country

are how we know we are achieving our mission.

photos: (above) CISAChonors student Lauren Young (right) and fellow Stanford

student Jonny Dorsey, in Zambia, with the late Mama Katele, who inspired the

students to start a national nonprofit to fightAIDSin Africa. (FACE AIDS) (right)

Young with CISAChonors graduate Dave Ryan, now FACE AIDS executive director.


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The Way Forward in Iraq

By any reasonable definition, Iraq is in the midst of a civil war, the scale and extent of

which is limited somewhat by the U.S. military presence, James Fearon, a Stanford political

science professor affiliated with CISAC, told the Subcommittee on National Security,

Emerging Threats, and International Relations of the House Committee on Government

Reform in September 2006.

News media drew on Fearons congressional testimony, echoing his warning about the

likely failure of an attempt to divide the countrys land or resources among Sunnis, Shiites,

and Kurds. Some news organizations began to call the fighting in Iraq a civil war, citing the

research of Fearon and David Laitin, also a CISAC-affiliated political science professor.

Former defense secretary William Perry, co-director of the Preventive Defense Project at

CISAC, served as a member of the bipartisan Iraq Study Group, formed at Congress request.Headed by James A. Baker III, former secretary of state, and Lee H. Hamilton, former U.S.

representative, the group advocated new and enhanced diplomatic and political efforts

in Iraq and the region, and a change in the primary mission of U.S. forces in Iraq that will

enable the United States to begin to move its combat forces out of Iraq responsibly.

Perry testified in January before both Senate and House armed services committees.

He reinforced the study groups call for a change in mission, a reinvigoration of diplomacy

in the region, a strengthening of the Iraqi government, and the beginning of troop

redeployments.

FSI colleague Larry Diamond, who served as a senior advisor to the Coalition Provisional

Authority in Iraq, joined Perry and Fearon at the end of January for a panel discussion,Iraq: The Way Forward, hosted by CISAC. At the standing-room-only forum, all three experts

argued against sending more troops to Iraq.

The U.S. presence in Iraq and its support of the Iraqi government placed the United States

in the position of siding with the Shia in the ongoing civil war, Fearon argueda position he

called morally dubious and not in the long-term interest of the United States.

In the March 2007 issue ofForeign Affairs, Fearon suggested that the United States

would do better to withdraw troops from the country so that it could balance Iraqs factions

and help effect an equitable resolution among them.

Thom Shanker, the New York Times national security and foreign policy correspondent,

delivering CISACs annual Drell Lecture, added that military officers saw their success in

Iraq as tied to wider diplomatic and political efforts in the country and the region.

photo: FollowingCISACs panel discussion, Iraq: The Way Forward, Larry Diamond, coordinator of the democracy

program at FSIs Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law, fielded questions from reporters.

cisac 13influencing policy


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Brian Burton

Why the New Counterinsurgency Doctrine Isnt the Answer

In Iraq

Brian Burton studied the U.S. militarys approach to the

war in Iraq and found its doctrine ill-matched to the task.

In his CISAC honors thesis, Counterinsurgency

Principles and U.S. Military Effectiveness in Iraq, Burton

found that what has been hailed in the press as a new

counterinsurgency strategy is not really new. The

militarys new manual echoes a mid-20th century strategy

to clear, hold, and buildto defeat the insurgents,

secure territory, and rebuild infrastructure to support afunctioning society.

The fact that the doctrine is outdated is almost beside

the point, though, according to Burtons research. It

doesnt begin to address the situation in Iraq, which bears

little resemblance to insurgencies of past decades.

The doctrine doesnt address the sectarian violence,

the political violence, the international terrorism, or

criminality present in Iraq, Burton said.

Nor is the U.S. military equipped, configured, or trained

to perform the kind of nation-building mission that Iraqwould require, he found, as he surveyed military sources

and interviewed officers who were experts on the doctrine

and had served in Iraq.

Theres a real mismatch between the type of campaign

the U.S. is trying to wage and the means it used to carry

it out, he said. Whats needed is an integrated nation-

building doctrine that emphasizes civilian, not just

military, capabilities, he concluded.

Now pursuing a masters degree in security studies at

Georgetown University, Burton plans to elaborate on his

thesis in a book, in collaboration with another scholar.

photo: Brian Burton, 2007CISAChonors graduate and Firestone

Medal winner.

14 cisac influencing policy

Pierre R. SchwobSupporting Insight and Outreach

Pierre R. Schwob was born in America andraised in Geneva, Switzerland. He has taughtcomputer science, licensed his intellectualproperties in radio data and internet technolo-

gies, and written books on chess, calculators,and history. Schwob currently directsClassicalArchives.com, the largest classicalmusic site on the internet.

Q: What international/national security issuesmost concern you?

The wayward and costly invasion of Iraq at theexpense of a stable Afghanistan; the intentionaland grotesque rejection of alternative planningfor post Iraq-victory; the unwillingness to talk toour adversaries; the abandonment of the Agreed

Framework with North Korea; the misrepresen-tation or censorship of scientific data; and theloss of Americas prestige abroad are some ofthe examples of what I find lamentable.

Q: What provides you with hope?The American genius is expressed partly by itsunique ability to regenerate, to reinvent itself.We will need the wisdom and intelligence suchas that demonstrated so brilliantly by the peopleat CISAC and the Kavli Institute for ParticleAstrophysics and Cosmology, which I also sup-port at Stanford, to redress our course and to

avert potentially catastrophic disasters that maythreaten our societies and civilization.

Q: Why do you support CISAC?Nothing has made me more optimistic thanmeeting the wonderfully talented and thoughtfulpeople at CISAC. One cannot be but humbledwhen listening to Bill Perry, Scott Sagan, orany of their distinguished colleagues. I feelparticularly fortunate to know them and to havebeen able to support some of their endeavorsparticularly with regard to their outreach efforts.


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photos: (left) David Patel, 20062007CISACfellow, studied Islam and politics

during an eight-month stay in Iraq. (above) Patel and an Iraqi friend, at the

grave of Grand Ayatollah Mohammad Mohammad Sadiq al-Sadr (Muqtada

al-Sadrs father) in Najaf.

cisac 15influencing policy

David Patel

Illuminating the Role of Islam in Iraqs New Political Culture

To study Islamic and political institutions in the Middle East, David Patel read deeply in his

subject and became fluent in Arabic. He also immersed himself in Iraqi culture by living in

Basra during the most perilous moments of Iraqs history, as Patels dissertation advisor,

David Laitin, points out.

He has been an invaluable national resource in sharing his findings on and his interpre-

tations of events taking place in Iraq today, said Laitin, a Stanford political science professor

affiliated with CISAC and the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law.

Patel made time for interviews with reporters, such as National Public Radios Michele

Kelleman, and to serve as a consultant to the U.S. government while completing his PhD

and conducting research as a fellow at CDDRL and CISAC.He analyzed the relationship of religious and political institutions, which Laitin noted is

a central theme in political science today and also a fundamental concern in policy.

I realized that for better of worse, Iraq was going to be the defining experience in the

Middle East for some time, said Patel, who is now an assistant professor of government

at Cornell University.

A visit with a friend doing relief work in Iraq in September 2003 provided him with a unique

research opportunity. Iraq served as a natural experiment for studying Islams role in

political action, Patel explained, as the state disappeared but Islamic institutions stayed

after the defeat of Saddam Husseins government.

Services collapsed everywhere at the same time, he said. His visit stretched to aneight-month stay in Basra during the Coalition Provisional Authority era. He observed

the way Islamic clericsspecifically the hierarchically organized Shiainspired civic

participation that didnt exist in Iraq under Saddam Husseins rule. Patel found Shiite clerics

Friday sermons gave Iraqi citizens the wherewithal to organize and resume services, such

as trash collecting.

Patel traveled around Iraq freely by car, and his facility with Arabic enabled him to meet

and befriend locals. That changed in April 2004, with the first uprising of Shia forces loyal

to Muqtada al-Sadr. Increased violence in the country forced Patel to leave.

Under extremely challenging conditions, [Patel] has made himself into one of a very

small number of experts on Iraqi politics, said Professor James Fearon, a CISAC and CDDRL

political scientist with whom Patel studied.


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CISAC extends its insight and impact by training the next generation ofsecurity specialists who will carry forward this important work.

Katherine Schlosser receives her honors certificate from CISAC senior

fellow Stephen Stedman. CISAC senior research scholar Paul

Stockton, who led the 20062007 program with Stedman, looks on.

Insight & Impact


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Katherine Schlosser

How an RNA Test Could Help Save Lives In a Bioterror Attack

In her CISAC honors thesis, biology major Katherine Schlosser found that gene expression

analysis, a technique advanced in the last 10 years, could form the basis of an early warning

system for bioterror attacks or disease outbreaks.

Experts agree that early detection of a disease is the key to mounting an effective public

response to an outbreak, whether the cause is deliberate, as in a terrorist attack, or natural,

as in a flu epidemic.

Traditional clinical diagnosis, based on a patients symptoms, will never be able to

detect an attack or outbreak faster than the time it takes for the first patient to become ill

and visit health-care facilities, Schlosser explained. Gene expression has the potential to

allow diagnosis during the presymptomatic period, before people know they are sick.

Rather than testing blood for specific pathogens, doctors could test a few drops of blood

for a variety of diseases at once by examining cells gene expression, the process that turns

RNA information into proteins. Scientists have begun to note patterns in gene expression

that signal the presence of cancer or infectious diseases such as malaria or smallpox.

It is important to start envisioning a system for implementing this technology as soon

as possible, Schlosser said. She suggested the RNA test be used for routine screening ofblood samples collected during medical examinations, to provide early warning of dangerous

infectious diseases.

As researchers are compiling a comprehensive library of patterns, policymakers can

prepare a routine screening system to implement as soon as the technology is ready,

she noted.

Schlossers thesis advisor, Dean Wilkening, who directs CISACs science program, said

her research provides a clear articulation of the scientific merits and practical benefits

associated with this technology. He added that it is suitable for policymakers interested

in the dual questions of detecting emerging infectious diseases and bioterrorism in a

timely manner.I hope that my research will inspire more funding for the work with DNA microarrays

that is ongoing, Schlosser said. I have always thought that it was important for scientists

to be involved in policy about scientific issues. Bioterrorism seemed like a place where I

could start doing that.

Now enrolled in a joint MD-masters of public health program at Case Western

Reserve University, Schlosser is interested in studying infectious diseases and working

in global health.

Training the Next Generation

training the next generation cisac 17


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Siegfried Hecker

CISACs New Co-Director

For 11 years, Siegfried Hecker was responsible for certifying annually the safety and security

of three-quarters of the nations nuclear arsenal, as director of Los Alamos National Laboratory

from 1986 through 1997. He also directed a broad spectrum of defense and civilian research.

Now Los Alamos laboratorys emeritus director is fulfilling a long-held dream of being

a professor. In January 2007 he became CISACs fifth science co-director, a senior fellow

at FSI, and professor (research) in the Stanford School of Engineerings Department of

Management Science and Engineering.

During his tenure as director at Los Alamos, Hecker helped Russia and other states of

the former Soviet Union improve the security of their nuclear materials and nuclear facilities

by building lab-to-lab relations with his counterparts across the former Soviet Union.He continues that work today and has made nearly 40 trips to Russia. He has also met

with nuclear experts in other nations, including the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea

(DPRK), Pakistan, and India.

I seek collaboration with nuclear scientists around the world to reduce nuclear

dangersparticularly those associated with lack of security of nuclear materials, Hecker

said. My aim is to help countries secure their nuclear materials and keep them out of

the wrong hands.

On visits to North Korea with CISAC colleague John Lewis, Hecker met with the director

of the DPRK nuclear program and toured the nuclear facilities at Yongbyon.

In fall quarters of2005 and 2006, as a visiting professor at CISAC, he co-taught Technologyand National Security with CISAC colleague and former defense secretary William Perry.

Last spring he taught Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Energy, a sophomore seminar. Both

courses are offered by the Department of Management Science and Engineering.

Hecker had an offer to teach at the University of Illinois after earning his PhD in metallurgy

at Case Western Reserve University. But a postdoctoral position at Los Alamos led him to

pursue a research career outside academe.

By his account, he was drawn to Los Alamos by its geography as well as by the professional

opportunity it offered.

I grew up in Austria on skis, Hecker said, and came to the U.S. at age 13to Cleveland,

Ohio, where there was hardly a hill in sight. Los Alamos lay at 7,300-feet elevation, with its

own ski area, and close to Sante Fe and the famed Taos ski resort.

photo: (left to right) William Perry, formerCISACco-director, with current co-directors Scott Sagan and Siegfried Hecker.

18 cisac training the next generation


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Hecker took a summer research assistant position at Los Alamos and honeymooned with

his wife, Nina, in the mountains. After postdoctoral research at Los Alamos, he worked for

a time at General Motors Research Laboratories, where he studied steel and aluminum,

before returning to Los Alamos as a technical staff member.

There he developed an infectious enthusiasm for his new subjectplutonium, the most

complex element in the periodic table.

I tried to understand why plutonium defies most conventional metallurgical and physics

wisdom. The nuclear properties and role of plutonium in nuclear weapons came much

later, he said.

Selected to head the laboratory, he looked to Norris Bradbury, the laboratorys second

director, for an understanding of the institutions role. Hecker recalls Bradbury saying,

We dont build bombs to kill people. We build them to buy time for political leaders to

learn to resolve their differences.Hecker is still guided by that vision, he says, as he advises administration officials and

members of Congress and trains a new generation of technical and political experts on

nuclear and international security issues.

cisac 19training the next generation

Michael Sulmeyer,

2002 CISAC Honors GraduateHow I Came to CISAC

I remember stumbling in late to a lecture in Cubberly auditorium. The course was the old PS 138,

International Security in a Changing World. I hadnt a clue about international security, but I was blown

away listening to Dean Wilkening describe the three different layers of a national missile defense

system. I didnt know you could study something like that. This was a real treat. I went on to take as

many courses as I could from CISAC-affiliated faculty and was first in line to sign up for the new

CISAC undergraduate honors program.

Sulmeyer is now a PhD candidate in politics and international relations at Oxford University. Prior

to graduate school, he spent a year working at the Pentagon and was detailed for several months to

the Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq.

My aim is to help countries secure their nuclear materials and keep them out of thewrong hands.

Siegfried Hecker, CISAC co-director


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Alisa Carrigan

Using Science and Social Science to Solve Security Problems

From its founding by physicist Sidney Drell and political scientist John Lewis, CISAC has

fostered collaboration among scientists and social scientists to tackle security problems

that cant be solved with the tools of a single academic field.

Alisa Carrigan is one researcher who embodies that interdisciplinary spirit.

Carrigan, a 20062007 CISAC predoctoral fellow, earned her PhD in war studies from

Kings College in London. Her dissertation, The Best Knowledge Money Can Buy, examines

how nations build nuclear weapons expertise and offers recommendations for preventing

the spread of this expertise to illicit programs.

Nonproliferation experts seem to think that, for any number of reasons, proliferating

states will try to recruit foreign scientists and engineers to work on their nuclearprograms, Carrigan said. And we have put in place a number of policies and programs

that try to stop the recruitment of un- or under-employed scientists, like those in the

former Soviet Union.

To the contrary, Carrigan found that nations did not build nuclear expertise by recruiting

foreigners. Instead, they sent their own people abroad for technical training.

After the Cold War, the U.S. and international communities were so busy looking for

Russians being recruited away from Russia that we didnt pay any attention to who was

coming into Russia and for what purpose, she said.

She suggests tightening export controls to include expertise as well as materials for

making nuclear, biological, or chemical weapons, to ensure that technical assistance isntbeing diverted into covert programs.

As a government and psychology major in college, Carrigan said she began interpreting

technical matters during a summer internship with the public affairs office at Lawrence

Livermore National Laboratory. I had to make science understandable to the public, she

said. Id go to the scientists and say, Explain this to me, and sometimes Id go back

again, she said, until she understood.

Her doctoral research entailed interviews with nuclear weapons designers, uranium

enrichment specialists, metallurgists, and other technical expertsamong them some of

the nations nuclear luminaries who participated in the Manhattan Project.

All of the experts I talked to were very open with me, very willing to tell me what they

knew or what they thought, she said.

photo: CISACpredoctoral fellow Alisa Carrigan found that nations with successful nuclear operations did not recruit

experts from overseas, as current nonproliferation policies and programs assume.

20 cisac training the next generation


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They told Carrigan how they gained

expertise specific to nuclear programs,

providing details often not covered

in histories.

A former high-level scientist in Saddam

Husseins regime shared practically

every detail of the training and experimen-

tation that went on in Iraqs centrifuge

program where they sent people and

when, what those people brought back,

and how they were integrated into the

program, she said.

Carrigan identified a clear patternamong states with successful nuclear

programs. Those states sent scientists

abroad for training as needed, then

brought them home to apply their skills

and to help train colleagues.

In a December 2006 Capitol Hill

briefing, Carrigan advised congressional

staff and other policy experts to address

technical assistancein addition to

transfer of materials and weaponsinnonproliferation efforts.

The International Atomic Energy

Agency (IAEA) should be given access

to scrutinize more closely a states

nuclear scientists and engineers, to see

what theyre working on and with whom,

she added.

With this information, Carrigan said,

the IAEA could piece together a much

better picture of what a state is or is

not doing.

cisac 21training the next generation

Keith ColemanSupporting Life-Changing Training

Keith Coleman (BS Computer Science 02, MS04), member of the CISAC Honors Class of20012002, received Stanfords Firestone Medal,which recognizes the most distinguished

undergraduate research produced at Stanfordeach year. Coleman served on StanfordUniversitys Board of Trustees Committee onAcademic Policy, Planning and Managementand co-invented a driving directions service thatgives step-by-step directions over the telephone.(patent pending). As a product manager atGoogle he runs Gmail, Googles e-mail service,and, with assistance from CISAC and WilliamJ. Perry, teaches MS&E 91, a Stanford courseon U.S. national security and the internet thathe and two other computer science students

created in 2004.Q: What brought you to CISAC?As an engineer at Stanford, its tough to studyanything but engineering there are a lotof requirements and only so much time. Butafter spending a quarter studying policy inWashington, I wanted to dive deeper. The CISACHonors Program was the perfect opportunity.The program was light years ahead of others atthe university in offering hands-on time andattention, access to experts, and exposure toreal policymakers and researchers.

Q: Why did you choose to support CISAC?CISAC has been life-changing. Through thehonors program, I spent my senior yearresearching security policy with some of theworlds top experts, and I continue to educatenew generations of Stanford students on inter-disciplinary computer security.

CISAC is also visionary. It was one of the firstdepartments at Stanford to realize the value ofinterdisciplinary work. Scott Sagan and Bill Perryhave a vision for international security educa-tion and dedicate their time and energy to realizeit. I want to support visionaries like them.

After the Cold War, we were so busy looking for Russiansbeing recruited away from Russia that we didnt payany attention to who was coming into Russia and forwhat purpose.

Alisa Carrigan, CISAC predoctoral fellow


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In every potential career you have expressed a desire to pursue, from medicine

to the financial sector and beyond, we need your perspectives and research

contributions, to deal with emerging threats to global security.

Paul Stockton, addressing CISACs 2007 undergraduate honors class

CISACs 2007 class of undergraduate honors students. Paul Stockton (left) and Stephen Stedman (right) led the program; Noah

Richmond (back row, right), CISACs Zukerman Fellow, served as teaching assistant; and Michelle Gellner (back row, second from

eft) coordinates the program.

CISAC congratulates the 2006 graduates of its undergraduate honorsprogram in international security studies. Professor Stephen Stedman and

senior research scholar Paul Stockton co-directed the 20062007 program.


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Brian Burton, political scienceThesis: Counterinsurgency Principles and U.S.Military Effectiveness in IraqFirestone Medal WinnerDestination: Georgetown University, to pursue amasters degree in security studiesAspiration: A high-level Cabinet or NSC position tocap a long career of public service in foreign policy.

Martine Cicconi, political science

Thesis: Weighing the Costs of Aggression andRestraint: Explaining Variations in Indias Responseto TerrorismDestination: Stanford University Law School

Will Frankenstein, mathematicsThesis: Chinese Energy Security and InternationalSecurity: A Case Study AnalysisDestination: The Institute for Defense Analysesin Alexandria, Va., for a summer internship

Kunal Gullapalli, management science andengineeringThesis: Understanding Water Rationality: A Game-

Theoretic Analysis of Cooperation and Conflict OverScarce WaterDestination: The Investment Banking Division atMorgan Stanley in Los Angeles

Sherri Hansen, political scienceThesis: Explaining the Use of Child SoldiersWilliam J. Perry Award WinnerDestination: Oxford University, England, to pursuemasters degree in development studies

Andy Leifer, physics and political scienceThesis: International Scientific Engagement forMitigating Emerging Nuclear Security Threats

Destination: Harvard University, to pursue a PhDin biophysics

James Madsen, political scienceThesis: Filling the Gap: The Rise of MilitaryContractors in the Modern MilitaryDestination: World travel; then San Francisco toopen a barMost valuable thing learned: The importance ofa good research design.

Nico Martinez, political scienceThesis: Protracted Civil War and Failed PeaceNegotiations in ColombiaDestination: Washington, D.C., to serve as a staffmember for Senator Harry Reid

Seepan V. Parseghian, political science andRussian/Eurasian studiesThesis: The Survival of Unrecognized States in theHobbesian JungleDestination: Undecided at graduationGreatest influence: My thesis advisor, ProfessorFearon, for constantly challenging me and believingin my work.

Dave Ryan, international relations

Thesis: Security Guarantees in NonproliferationNegotiationsDestination: Stanford University, to serve asexecutive director ofFACE AIDS

Katherine Schlosser, biologyThesis: Gene Expression Profiling: A New WarningSystem for BioterrorismDestination: Case Western Reserve University inCleveland, to pursue a joint medical degree andmasters in public healthAspiration: To keep conducting innovativeresearch and to eventually rejoin the internationalsecurity studies community in some capacity.

Nigar Shaikh, human biology and political scienceThesis: No Longer Just the Spoils of War: Rapeas an Instrument of Military PolicyDestination: New York, to be a litigation legalassistant at Cravath, Swaine & Moore LLP

Christine Su, history and political scienceThesis: British Counterterrorism Legislation Since2000: Parlimentary and Government Evaluations ofEnhanced SecurityDestination: Stanford University, to finish herundergraduate degree; Su completed the honorsprogram as a junior

Aspiration: To publish parts of my thesis inundergrad research journals.

Lauren Young, international relationsThesis: Peacebuilding Without Politics: The WorldBank and Post-Conflict ReconstructionDestination: Stanford University, to finish herundergraduate degree; Young completed thehonors program as a juniorAspiration: To make peacebuilding missionsmore effective and efficient so more countriesstart down a path of peace and developmentinstead of renewed conflict.

honors graduates cisac 23

Honors Graduates


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CISAC maintains high academic standards of independent research bysubjecting its work to peer-review in scholarly and professional publications.

This rigorous policy-relevant research serves as the basis ofCISACs policy

influence, as the centers scholars engage in public debate through op-eds,

congressional testimony, and public lectures, in addition to meetings

with policymakers. Here are selected examples of our scholarly and public

writings and talks.

Former Defense Secretary William Perry (right), co-director

of the Preventive Defense Project at CISAC, served on

the Iraq Study Group, led by former Secretary of State

James Baker III (center) and former U.S. Representative

Lee Hamilton. Former U.S. Senator Alan Simpson (left)

was also a group member. (Jim Young/Reuters)


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Books and Reports

James A. Baker III, Lee H. Hamilton, Robert M.Gates, Vernon E. Jordan, Jr., Edwin Meese III,Sandra Day OConnor, Leon E. Panetta, WilliamJ. Perry, Charles S. Robb, and Alan K. Simpson.The Iraq Study Group Report, United StatesInstitute of Peace, December 6, 2006.

Ashton B. Carter, Michael May, and William J. Perry.

The Day After: Action in the 24 Hours Following aNuclear Blast, Preventive Defense Project, Harvardand Stanford universities, May 31, 2007.

Combating Terrorism Center. Al-Qaidas(mis)Adventures in the Horn of Africa, CombatingTerrorism Center, U.S. Military Academy, WestPoint, May 4, 2007. (Jacob N. Shapiro contributed.)

Stephen E. Flynn. The Edge of Disaster: Rebuildinga Resilient Nation, Council on Foreign Relationsand Random House, 2007.

Siegfried S. Hecker. Report on North Korean

Nuclear Program, CISAC, November 15, 2006.Paul Kapur. Dangerous Deterrent: NuclearWeapons Proliferation and Conflict in South Asia,Stanford University Press, 2007.

Michael Kenney. From Pablo to Osama: Traffickingand Terrorist Networks, Government Bureaucracies,and Competitive Adaptation, Penn State UniversityPress, 2007.

Charles Perrow. The Next Catastrophe: ReducingOur Vulnerabilities to Natural, Industrial, andTerrorist Disasters, Princeton University Press, 2007.

Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall.Alliances andAmerican Security, Strategic Studies Institute ofthe U.S. Army War College, November 1, 2006.

Jeremy M. Weinstein. Inside Rebellion: The Politics ofInsurgent Violence (Cambridge Studies in ComparativePolitics), Cambridge University Press, 2006.

Congressional Testimony and Public Lectures

Herbert Abrams. The Fourth Dimension ofBiomedicine, Commencement Address, StanfordUniversity School of Medicine, June 16, 2007.

Mariano-Florentino Cullar. Restoring HabeasCorpus: Protecting American Values and the GreatWrit, U.S. Senate, Committee on the Judiciary,May 22, 2007.

James Fearon. Iraq: Democracy or Civil War?U.S. House of Representatives, Committee onGovernment Reform, Subcommittee on NationalSecurity, Emerging Threats, and InternationalRelations, September 15, 2006.

William J. Perry. Alternative Perspectives onIraq, U.S. House of Representatives, ArmedServices Committee, January 17, 2007.

William J. Perry. The Situation in Iraq and theAdministrations Strategy, U.S. Senate, ArmedServices Committee, January 25, 2007.

Paul Stockton. Five- and Ten-Year HomelandSecurity Goals, U.S. House of Representatives,Appropriations Committee, Homeland SecuritySubcommittee, January 30, 2007.

Op-Eds and Commentary

Robert Carlin and John W. Lewis. What North KoreaReally Wants, Washington Post, January 27, 2007.

Eileen Chamberlain Donahoe. Why Iraq TeachesNothing About Intervention in Darfur, San JoseMercury News, November 6, 2006.

Albert Chang and Robert C. Bordone. RealSuperpowers Negotiate, washingtonpost.com,October 26, 2006. (Chang was a 2006 CISAChonors graduate.)

David Laitin. Uncle Sams Lonely Predicament,Newsday, December 8, 2006.

Michael M. May. The Null Hypothesis in Iraq,Los Angeles Times, February 18, 2007.

William J. Perry. In Search of a North KoreaPolicy, Washington Post, October 11, 2006.

William J. Perry, Michael M. May, and AshtonCarter. After the Bomb, New York Times, June12, 2007.

Pavel Podvig. Behind Russia and Irans NuclearReactor Dispute, The Bulletin Online, March 26,

2007.

selected publications and presentations cisac 25

Selected Publications and Presentations


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26 cisac selected publications and presentations

Pavel Podvig. Boris Yeltsins Arms Control Legacy,The Bulletin Online, April 30, 2007.

Pavel Podvig. Life after START, The BulletinOnline, January 9, 2007.

Pavel Podvig. Missile Defense: The RussianReaction, The Bulletin Online, February 26, 2007.

Pavel Podvig. A U.S.-Russian Missile DefenseCooperative? The Bulletin Online, April 24, 2007.

Lawrence M. Wein. Biological and ChemicalSafety Nets, Wall Street Journal, February 27, 2007.

Lawrence M. Wein. Face Facts, New York Times,October 25, 2006.

Leonard Weiss and Larry Diamond. CongressMust Stop an Attack on Iran, Los Angeles Times,February 5, 2007.

Professional and Scholarly Articles and Chapters

Michael P. Atkinson, Zheng Su, Nina Alphey,Luke S. Alphey, Paul G. Coleman, and LawrenceM. Wein. Analyzing the Control of Mosquito-Borne Diseases by a Dominant Lethal GeneticSystem, Proceedings of the National Academy ofSciences 104.22 (29 May 2007): 9540-9545.

Chaim Braun. The Nuclear Energy Market andthe Nonproliferation Regime, NonproliferationReview 13.3 (November 2006).

George Bunn. Enforcing International Standards:Protecting Nuclear Materials From TerroristsPost-9/11,Arms Control Today 37.1 (JanuaryFebruary 2007).

George Bunn. Nuclear Safeguards: How FarCan Inspectors Go? IAEA Bulletin 48.1 (March2007): 49-53.

George Bunn. U.S.-India Nuclear CooperationAgreement: Can President Bush Refuse to Follow

the Expressed Will of Congress ConcerningNuclear Exports to India? Lawyers Alliance forWorld Security (17 January 2007).

Sheena Chestnut. Illicit Activity and Proliferation:North Korean Smuggling Networks, InternationalSecurity 32.1 (Summer 2007): 80-111. (Based onChestnuts 2005 CISAC honors thesis.)

Mariano-Florentino Cullar. Auditing ExecutiveDiscretion, Notre Dame Law Review 82.1(November 2006): 227-312.

Mariano-Florentino Cullar. Running Aground:

The Hidden Environmental and RegulatoryImplications of Homeland Security,AmericanConstitution Society for Law and Policy (May 2007).

Lynn Eden. Response to My Critics, ReviewSymposium on Whole World on Fire, with commentsby Renee Anspach, Hugh Gusterson, ThomasP. Hughes, Social Studies of Science 36.4 (August2006): 628-656.

Lynn Eden. Why? Charles Tillys Cabinet ofWonders, Symposium on Tillys Why? QualitativeSociology 29.4 (December 2006): 551-555.

James Fearon. Iraqs Civil War, Foreign Affairs86.2 (MarchApril 2007): 2-15.

M. Steven Fish and Matthew Kroenig. Diversity,Conflict, and Democracy: Some Evidence fromEurasia and East Europe, Democratization 13.5(December 2006): 828-842.

Siegfried S. Hecker. Toward a ComprehensiveSafeguards System: Keeping Fissile MaterialsOut of Terrorists Hands,Annals of the AmericanAcademy of Political and Social Science 607(September 2006): 121-132.


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Siegfried S. Hecker and William Liou. DangerousDealings: North Koreas Nuclear Capabilities and

the Threat of Export to Iran,Arms Control Today37.2 (March 2007): 6-11.

David Holloway. Jockeying for Position in thePostwar World: Soviet Entry into the War withJapan in August 1945, in The End of the PacificWar: Reappraisals, Tsuyoshi Hasegawa, ed.(Stanford University, 2007).

Macartan Humphreys and Jeremy M. Weinstein.Handling and Manhandling Civilians in CivilWar, American Political Science Review 100.3(August 2006): 429-447.

Michael M. May, Jay Davis, and Raymond Jeanloz.Preparing for the Worst, Nature 443.7114(25 October 2006): 907-908.

Michael Miller. Nuclear Attribution as Deterrence,Nonproliferation Review 14.1 (March 2007).(Based on Millers 2006 CISAC honors thesis.)

Pavel Podvig. Reducing the Risk of an AccidentalLaunch, Science and Global Security 14.2-3(SeptemberDecember 2006): 75-115.

Scott D. Sagan and Kenneth N. Waltz. A NuclearIran: Promoting Stability or Courting Disaster?

Journal of International Affairs (Spring/Summer2007).

Sonja Schmid. Nuclear Renaissance in the Ageof Global Warming, Bridges 12 (December 2006).

Jacob N. Shapiro. Strictly Confidential, ForeignPolicy (July/August 2007).

Jacob N. Shapiro. Terrorist OrganizationsVulnerabilities and Inefficiencies: A RationalChoice Perspective, in Terrorism Financing andState Responses: A Comparative Perspective,Harold Trinkunas and Jeanne K. Giraldo, eds.(Stanford University Press, 2007).

Jacob N. Shapiro and Rudolph P. Darken.Homeland Security: A New Strategic Paradigm?

in Strategy in the Contemporary World, 2nd ed.,John Baylis, James J. Wirtz, Colin S. Gray, and EliotCohen, eds. (Oxford University Press, 2006).

Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall. The Case for Alliances,Joint Force Quarterly 43.4 (October 2006): 54-59.

Lisa Stampnitzky. How Does Culture BecomeCapital? Cultural and Institutional Struggles OverCharacter and Personality at Harvard, SociologicalPerspectives 49.4 (December 2006): 461-481.

Steven Weber, Naazneen Barma, MatthewKroenig, and Ely Ratner. How Globalization Went

Bad, Foreign Policy (January/February 2007).Lawrence M. Wein. Preventing CatastrophicChemical Attacks, Issues in Science & Technology23 (Fall 2006): 31-33.

Lawrence M. Wein, A.H. Wilkins, Manas Baveja,and Stephen E. Flynn. Preventing the Importationof Illicit Nuclear Materials in Shipping Containers,Risk Analysis 26.5 (October 2006): 1377-1393.

Jeremy M. Weinstein. Africas RevolutionaryDeficit, Foreign Policy (July/August 2007).

Yunhua Zou. Preventing Nuclear Terrorism:

A View from China, Nonproliferation Review 13.2(July 2006). (Based on Zous research as a20042005 CISAC visiting scholar.)

cisac 27selected publications and presentations


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CISAC is a truly challenging and engaging intellectual community. I feel asthough I have received something of a crash course in political science and

security studies, with the faculty and other fellows always willing to engage

my questions. Being at CISAC has also been invaluable to my research in

practical ways, aiding in making contacts with members of the terrorism

studies community and other homeland security researchers.

Lisa Stampnitzky, CISAC predoctoral fellow

CISACs researchers, staff, and students on the steps of Stanford Universitys Encina Hall, CISACs home.


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CISAC DirectorsSiegfried S. Hecker, Co-DirectorScott D. Sagan, Co-DirectorLynn Eden, Associate Director

for ResearchElizabeth A. Gardner, Associate

Director for Administrationand External Affairs

Executive CommitteeWilliam J. Perry, ChairKenneth ArrowJohn H. BartonCoit D. Blacker (ex officio)Edward A. FeigenbaumSiegfried S. Hecker (ex officio)Joshua LederbergMichael A. McFaulNorman M. NaimarkM. Elisabeth Pat-CornellLee D. RossScott D. Sagan (ex officio)Lucy ShapiroJames L. Sweeney

Faculty and Research StaffHerbert L. AbramsDavid M. BernsteinCoit D. BlackerGeorge BunnWesley ClarkMartha CrenshawMariano-Florentino CullarLynn Eden

James D. FearonStephen E. FlynnDavid J. HollowayBruce JonesDavid LaitinGail W. LapidusJoshua LederbergJohn W. LewisMichael M. MayMichael A. McFaulWilliam J. PerryPavel PodvigJoseph PrueherScott D. Sagan

Kenneth SchultzJohn ShalikashviliElizabeth Sherwood-RandallRebecca SlaytonJames J. Spilker, Jr.Stephen J. StedmanPaul StocktonJohn H. TilelliLawrence M. Wein

Allen S. WeinerJeremy M. WeinsteinDean WilkeningXue Litai

Individual AffiliatesChristopher F. ChybaKeith ColemanGilbert DeckerDavid ElliottLewis FranklinDavid HafemeisterRon HassnerAlla KassianovaL. David MontagueRichard RhodesRoger Speed

Visiting ScholarsRobert CarlinEileen Chamberlain DonahoeNina HachigianMacartan HumphreysKoichi NishitaniCharles Perrow

Science FellowsChaim BraunJungmin KangSonja SchmidLeonard WeissBekhzod Yuldashev

Predoctoral/PostdoctoralFellowsAlisa CarriganLaura K. DonohueMatthew KroenigDavid Patel

Philip RoesslerJacob N. ShapiroLisa Stampnitzky

Zukerman FellowNoah Richmond

StaffEvelyn Castaneda

Kate ChadwickSharan L. DanielLeah FelizKimberly FuhrmanElizabeth A. GardnerMichelle GellnerA. Nancy GonzalezDeborah GordonTracy HillCarole HydeJustin LiszanckieRupal MehtaJenny PongJennifer SeverinLisa SickorezMyrna SoperKimberly SulpiziLorraine TheodorakakisNora M. SweenyJosh Weddle

cisac people cisac 29

CISAC People


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donors30 cisac

Anne AvisDavid BernsteinMark ChandlerEileen Chamberlain DonahoeJamie Halper

Benjamin HewlettLaurene Powell JobsDavid KellerGilman LouieS. Atiq Raza

Jesse RogersFred WeintzKaren D. Zukerman

Grateful Thanks toOur Generous Supporters

* Design:AKAcreativegroup.com

Philanthropic LeadershipThe generosity of our donors enabledCISACscholars to address the critical security issues of our time.

Lifetime Gifts and PledgesCISACgratefully acknowledges thesedonors for their generous support ofgifts and pledges totaling $100,000or more since the centers founding:*

Anonymous (2)Michael and Barbara Berberian

Daniel CaseWilliam EdwardsJamie and Priscilla HalperBenjamin HewlittReuben and Ingrid HillsFranklin P. JohnsonJoseph KampfMarjorie KiewitJeong KimMelvin and Joan LaneStephen M. LefkowitzWilliam J. PerryPierre R. SchwobRichard TrutanicJ. Fred WeintzAlbert and Cicely Wheelon

Anne E. and John C. WhiteheadKaren D. and M.E. Zukerman

Donors 20062007CISACgratefully acknowledges the

following individuals, foundations, andcorporations for their generous supportduring the 20062007fiscal year:*

Anonymous (2)Minoru Sam and Anna ArakiAnne R. and Gregory M. AvisDavid and Anne BernsteinDavid BezansonPeter and Helen Bing

Mark Chandler and Christina Kenrick

Keith ColemanSimone and Tench CoxeRichard C. DeGoliaKaren EdwardsDavid and Arline ElliottLewis and Nancy FranklinRobert C. and Mary Layne GreggJamie and Priscilla Halper

Gary and Helen Howard HarmonWilliam N. HarrisJohn Harvey and Sara MendelsonChristine HemrickLarry and Amber HenningerBenjamin Hewlett (Flora Family

Foundation)Frederick IsemanKenneth I. JusterNiloo Farhad and Soroush KaboliAbdo George and Sally KadifaAndrew Kassoy and Kamy WicoffHerant and Stina KatchadourianDavid KellerLoren and Anne KieveMarjorie Kiewit

Daniel KlimanJ. Burke KnappAndrea and Paul KoontzMelvin and Joan LaneNicole Lederer and Larry OrrWilliam LeviDoug and Virginia LevickGilman Louie and Amy ChanMeena MallipeddiJoseph and Elizabeth MandatoLaird McCullochJonathan MedaliaMichael and Davida RabbinoDr. William J. and Joan P. ReckmeyerRichard and Ginger RhodesJesse and Mindy Rogers

Scott D. Sagan and Sujitpan Lamsam(John and Margaret SaganFoundation)

Yoav SchlesingerPierre R. SchwobDavid Seidenwurm and Page RobbinsAnthony Stayner and Elizabeth CrossJames and Emily Thurber

Tom and Rosemary TischJim and Carol ToneyArthur TruegerPatricia and James WhitePhyllis WillitsFrancisco Wong-Diaz, PhD, Esq.Kathryn ZoglinKaren D. and M.E. Zukerman

Corporations and LaboratoriesThe Boeing CompanyLawrence Livermore National

LaboratoryLos Alamos National LaboratorySandia National LaboratoriesSun Microsystems

FoundationsCarnegie Corporation of New YorkCompton Foundation/Danforth FundThe William and Flora Hewlett

FoundationThe Henry Luce FoundationThe John D. and Catherine T.

MacArthur FoundationMinistry of Foreign Affairs of NorwayThe National Science FoundationNaval Postgraduate SchoolNuclear Threat InitiativePloughshares FundSmith Richardson Foundation

The United Nations Foundation

Volunteer LeadershipMembers of the CISACAdvisory Group dedicate their time and considerable talents to the centers effortsto build a safer world. They offer diverse experiences, thoughtful perspective, and wide-ranging expertise aswell as providing generous philanthropic support to the center.

Every effort has been made to provide an accurate listing of our donors. In the event of an inadvertent error or omission,please contact A. Nancy Gonzalez at 650-724-8055 or [email protected].


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Fiscal Year 20052006

Revenue*

%

Grants and contracts 42.5%

Endowment payout 24.2%

Gifts 22.6%

University general funds 5.7%

Affiliate income 3.5%

University one-time support 1.5%

Total: $3,967,919 100.0%

Expenses

%

Faculty, research staff, and visiting scholars 25.0%

Fellowships, students 18.1%

Administrative staff 17.5%

Benefits 11.8%

Conferences, seminars, and travel 14.5%

Indirect costs 8.6%

Expendables and services 2.8%

Computing and telecommunications 1.7%

Total: $4,267,422 100.0%

photo: (back cover) CISACscience fellow Sonja Schmid asks a question at a CISACseminar, as CISAC

predoctoral fellow Lisa Stampnitzky and visiting scholar Koichi Nishitani listen.

Because grant and contract sponsors often provide funding for projects that span more than a fiscal year, revenue in a

given year may appear to exceed or fall short of expenditures.

note: 20052006figures were the most recent ones available at the time this Overview went to press.

*


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CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL

SECURITY AND COOPERATION

Stanford University

Freeman Spogli Institute for

International Studies

Encina Hall

Stanford, CA 94305-6165

Documents

CISAC Overview 2007