Cincinnati Law & Public Safety

Committee Meeting

Violence Update

May 26, 2015

Institute of Crime Science

School of Criminal Justice

University of Cincinnati

Year-to-Date and 6-Month

Violence Trends

25

19

25

22

30

18

27

32

24

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Cincinnati Homicide TotalsJanuary 1 –May 24

22

11

16

12

17

12

16

19

6

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Cincinnati GMI Homicide TotalsJanuary 1 – May 24

86.1%

53.8%

59.4%

59.3%

51.3%

60.9%

58.1%

64.1%

25.9%

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0%

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

11/12

12/13

13/14

14/15

Cincinnati Group Member Involved HomicidesNovember 25 – May 24

Cincinnati Homicide

Victim Demographics 2005-2015

% Male % Black Avg. Age

2005 83.3% 85.9% 28.6

2006 82.2% 67.8% 31.3

2007 89.7% 85.3% 30.5

2008 91.8% 75.3% 32.8

2009 74.6% 90.9% 30.7

2010 87.8% 87.8% 27.3

2011 91.6% 95.5% 27.6

2012 86.8% 75.5% 30.2

2013 93.1% 91.5% 29.5

2014 87.1% 87.1% 29.9

2015 56.5% 69.6% 28.8

* 2015 does not contain full year of data

126134

160

145 148 150156

133

162

0

50

100

150

200

250

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Cincinnati Fatal and Non-Fatal Shooting VictimsJanuary 1 –May 24

170159

193 192186 185 187

168

199

0

50

100

150

200

250

06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15

Cincinnati Fatal and Non-Fatal Shootings VictimsLast 6 Month Trends, November 25 – May 24

170159

193 192186 185 187

168

199

0

50

100

150

200

250

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Cincinnati Fatal and Nonfatal Shooting VictimsLast 6 Month Trends, November 25 – May 24

YTD Avg. +2 Std. Dev. -2 Std. Dev.

% Male % Black Avg. Age

2005 88.0% 84.6% 27.1

2006 87.4% 85.0% 26.8

2007 85.1% 83.5% 26.7

2008 90.4% 87.3% 26.9

2009 87.3% 92.2% 27.3

2010 90.2% 88.3% 27.6

2011 88.4% 87.0% 27.1

2012 90.1% 86.9% 27.7

2013 88.5% 92.0% 28.9

2014 87.9% 89.1 28.5

2015* 88.3% 91.4% 28.3

Cincinnati Fatal &Non-Fatal Shooting

Victim Demographics 2005-2015

* 2015 does not contain full year of data

YearShooting

VictimsIncidents

# of Multiple

Victim

Incidents

% of Incidents

with Multiple

Victims

Count of Victims

from Multiple

Victim Incidents

2010 145 129 11 8.5% 27

2011 148 134 10 7.5% 24

2012 150 136 8 5.9% 22

2013 156 134 16 11.9% 38

2014 133 116 14 12.1% 31

2015 162 141 17 12.1% 39

2015 to

2014 +21.8% +21.6%

2015 to

5-year

average+10.8% +24.8%

Fatal and Non-Fatal Shootings: Multiple VictimsJanuary 1 – May 24

Neighborhood Count

Avondale 20

Westwood 13

Winton Hills 12

Walnut Hills 11

West End 11

Over-the-Rhine 10

Mount Airy 9

East Westwood 8

CUF 6

Roselawn 6

Top 10 Neighborhood Total 106

City Total 162

Fatal and Non-Fatal Shootings (Victims)

in Top 10 NeighborhoodsJanuary 1 – May 24

65.4% of all

shootings

41.4% of all

shootings

Fatal and Non-Fatal Shootings in Top 10 NeighborhoodsJanuary 1 – May 24

Neighborhood 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Avondale 18 14 15 16 20 20

Westwood 11 6 7 4 4 13

Winton Hills 6 10 6 12 5 12

Walnut Hills 6 4 20 6 14 11

West End 11 5 7 10 12 11

Over-the-Rhine 10 30 17 16 14 10

Mount Airy 6 0 4 3 6 9

East Westwood 0 1 0 6 3 8

CUF 1 2 2 1 1 6

Roselawn 9 6 2 7 2 6

Top 10 Neighborhood Total 78 78 80 81 81 106

City Total 145 148 150 156 133 162

% of City Total 53.8% 52.7% 53.3% 51.9% 60.9% 65.4%

5257

6369

7785

9199

108114 123

133140

146

39 45 4653

68

7688

9199

114

124

144

157162

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2012-2014 Avg.

2015

Fatal and Nonfatal Shooting Cumulative Counts

January 1 – May 24

Call-in

0

5

10

15

20

25

Fatal and Nonfatal Shootings –Weekly Trends

January 1 – September 2

2015

2012/2013/2014 Avg

Call-In

NeighborhoodShooting

VictimsPopulation Rate per 1,000

Millvale 14 2,399 5.84

East Westwood 14 2,445 5.73

Winton Hills 21 4,787 4.39

Spring Grove Village 8 1,964 4.07

Avondale 49 12,466 3.93

Walnut Hills 25 6,495 3.85

Over-the-Rhine 22 6,064 3.63

West End 24 6,627 3.62

North Avondale 11 3,229 3.41

Fay Apartments 6 1,916 3.13

Fatal and Non-Fatal Shooting Rates in Top 10 Neighborhoods*12 Month Trend: May 25, 2014 – May 24, 2015

*Neighborhoods with 5 or fewer shootings were excluded from this analysis