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CIAFS 2015 - The Importance of Small Data - FINAL

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CHAPTERS1. INTRODUCTION

2. DEFINITIONS

3. CASE STUDY THEMES:

I. JUST HOW SMALL CAN SMALL BE?

II.ARE BIGGEST CUSTOMERS PROFITABLE?

III.THE VALUE OF MASHUPS

IV.SHINING A LIGHT ON DARK PLACES

V. JUST HOW ACCURATELY DO YOU NEED TO BE WRONG?

4. CONCLUSIONS

5. Q&A

1 - INTRODUCTION

1 - INTRODUCTION

DISCLAIMER

ALL VIEWS ARE MY OWN

BASED ON 25 YEARS EXPERIENCE

VENDORS MAY NOT LIKE WHAT I SAY!

MENTION OF PRODUCTS, TOOLS, SERVICES & COMPANIES SHOULD

NOT BE TREATED AS AN ENDORSEMENT (OR A CRITICISM)

NAMES HAVE BEEN CHANGED TO PROTECT THE GUILTY!

IF YOU’D LIKE A COPY OF THE PRESENTATION THEN GET IN TOUCH

CHAPTERS1. INTRODUCTION

2. DEFINITIONS

3. CASE STUDY THEMES:

I. JUST HOW SMALL CAN SMALL BE?

II.ARE BIGGEST CUSTOMERS PROFITABLE?

III.THE VALUE OF MASHUPS

IV.SHINING A LIGHT ON DARK PLACES

V. JUST HOW ACCURATELY DO YOU NEED TO BE WRONG?

4. CONCLUSIONS

5. Q&A

2 – DEFINITIONS

• Big Data

• Small Data

• Data Discovery

2 – DEFINITIONS: BIG DATA

• Any offers?

2 – DEFINITIONS: BIG DATA – THE TECHNOLOGIST VIEW:

2 – DEFINITIONS: BIG DATA – THE STATISTICIAN VIEW:

N= ALL

2 – DEFINITIONS: BIG DATA – THE PRACTITIONER VIEW:

• "Big Data refers to things we can do at a large scale that

cannot be done at a smaller one, to extract new insights or

create new forms of value, in ways that change markets,

organisations, the relationship between citizens and

governments, and more"

• (Big Data: A revolution that will transform how we live, work and think". Viktor Mayer-Schonberger and Kenneth

Cukier, John Murray, London, 2013. ISBN: 9781848547933).

2 – DEFINITIONS: SMALL DATA

• Any offers?

2 – DEFINITIONS: SMALL DATA

• ANY data generated prior to mid 1990’s

• Anything which requires N < ALL

• When causation > Correlation

• When a single datapoint matters

• Anything you don’t want to label as Big Data

2 – DEFINITIONS: DATA DISCOVERY

2 – DEFINITIONS: DATA DISCOVERY

Well

documented

Well

documented

2 – DEFINITIONS: DATA DISCOVERY - THEORY

Poorly

documented

Poorly

documented

2 – DEFINITIONS: DATA DISCOVERY - PRACTICE

CHAPTERS1. INTRODUCTION

2. DEFINITIONS

3. CASE STUDY THEMES:

I. JUST HOW SMALL CAN SMALL BE?

II.ARE BIGGEST CUSTOMERS PROFITABLE?

III.THE VALUE OF MASHUPS

IV.SHINING A LIGHT ON DARK PLACES

V. JUST HOW ACCURATELY DO YOU NEED TO BE WRONG?

4. CONCLUSIONS

5. Q&A

• ONE LETTER THAT PUT A COMPANY OUT OF BUSINESS

• TWO DATA ITEMS THAT DROVE BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE ACROSS EUROPE

3 (I) – CASE STUDIES – JUST HOW SMALL CAN SMALL BE ?

ONE LETTER THAT PUT A COMPANY OUT OF BUSINESS

3 (I) – CASE STUDIES – JUST HOW SMALL CAN SMALL BE ?

ONE LETTER THAT PUT A COMPANY OUT OF BUSINESS

3 (I) – CASE STUDIES – JUST HOW SMALL CAN SMALL BE ?

TWO DATA ITEMS THAT DROVE BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE ACROSS EUROPE

3 (I) – CASE STUDY – ARE BIGGEST CUSTOMERS PROFITABLE ?

TWO DATA ITEMS THAT DROVE BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE ACROSS EUROPE

3 (I) – CASE STUDIES – JUST HOW SMALL CAN SMALL BE ?

TWO DATA ITEMS THAT DROVE BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE ACROSS EUROPE

3 (I) – CASE STUDIES – JUST HOW SMALL CAN SMALL BE ?

TWO DATA ITEMS THAT DROVE BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE ACROSS EUROPE

3 (I) – CASE STUDIES – JUST HOW SMALL CAN SMALL BE ?

• BIG VOLUME = BIG REVENUE = BIG PROFIT ?

3 (II) – CASE STUDIES – ARE BIGGEST CUSTOMERS PROFITABLE?

BIG VOLUME = BIG REVENUE…

3 (II) – CASE STUDIES – ARE BIGGEST CUSTOMERS PROFITABLE?

BIG VOLUME = BIG REVENUE = BIG PROFIT ?

3 (II) – CASE STUDIES – ARE BIGGEST CUSTOMERS PROFITABLE?

BIG VOLUME = BIG REVENUE = BIG PROFIT ?......OR NOT!

3 (II) – CASE STUDIES – ARE BIGGEST CUSTOMERS PROFITABLE?

• GROWING, ACCORDING TO INTERNAL DATA. EXTERNAL DATA SHOWS?

3 (III) – CASE STUDIES – THE VALUE OF MASHUPS

GROWING……

3 (III) – CASE STUDIES – THE VALUE OF MASHUPS

Month

Un

its

Unit Sales per Month

Own

GROWING MARKET SHARE………

3 (III) – CASE STUDIES – THE VALUE OF MASHUPS

Month

Un

its

Unit Sales per Month

Own

Month

Un

its

Unit Sales per Month

Competitor

Own

GROWING MARKET SHARE IN A SHRINKING MARKET

3 (III) – CASE STUDIES – THE VALUE OF MASHUPS

Month

Un

its

Unit Sales per Month

Own

Month

Un

its

Unit Sales per Month

Competitor

Own

Month

Un

its

Unit Sales per Month

Competitor

MARKET

Own

• IS THIS DATA RIGHT? ARE YOU SURE? REALLY SURE?

• IF THIS SYSTEM WAS RIGHT WE’D BE GOING BUST!

3 (IV) – CASE STUDIES – SHINING A LIGHT ON DARK PLACES

IS THIS DATA RIGHT? ARE YOU SURE? REALLY SURE?

3 (IV) – CASE STUDIES – SHINING A LIGHT ON DARK PLACES

IS THIS DATA RIGHT? ARE YOU SURE? REALLY SURE?

3 (IV) – CASE STUDIES – SHINING A LIGHT ON DARK PLACES

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

09:00:00

10:00:00

11:00:00

12:00:00

13:00:00

14:00:00

15:00:00

16:00:00

17:00:00

(blank)

Contacts

Customer Contacts

IF THIS SYSTEM WAS RIGHT WE’D BE GOING BUST!

3 (IV) – CASE STUDIES – SHINING A LIGHT ON DARK PLACES

IF THIS SYSTEM WAS RIGHT WE’D BE GOING BUST!

3 (IV) – CASE STUDIES – SHINING A LIGHT ON DARK PLACES

-10000

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Distributor Profitability (Revenue - Rebate)

Net Rev

Rebate

ROUGHLY RIGHT VERSUS PRECISELY WRONG

3 (V) – CASE STUDIES – JUST HOW ACCURATELY DO YOU NEED TO BE WRONG?

• LOSING THE INFORMATION IN THE DATA – DASHBOARD DAZZLE

• ROUGHLY RIGHT VERSUS PRECISELY WRONG

3 (V) – CASE STUDIES – JUST HOW ACCURATELY DO YOU NEED TO BE WRONG?

LOSING THE INFORMATION IN THE DATA – DASHBOARD DAZZLE

3 (V) – CASE STUDIES – JUST HOW ACCURATELY DO YOU NEED TO BE WRONG?

ROUGHLY RIGHT VERSUS PRECISELY WRONG

3 (V) – CASE STUDIES – JUST HOW ACCURATELY DO YOU NEED TO BE WRONG?

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99

Pe

rfo

rma

ce

(U

nit

s)

Day

Performance - Expected vs Actual

EXPECTED

ACTUAL

Linear (EXPECTED)

Linear (ACTUAL)

1. INTRODUCTION

2. DEFINITIONS

3. CASE STUDY THEMES:

I. JUST HOW SMALL CAN SMALL BE?

II.ARE BIGGEST CUSTOMERS PROFITABLE?

III.THE VALUE OF MASHUPS

IV.SHINING A LIGHT ON DARK PLACES

V. JUST HOW ACCURATELY DO YOU NEED TO BE WRONG?

4. CONCLUSIONS

5. Q&A

• START SMALL – SMALL PROJECT, SMALL DATA

• THE SMALLER THE DATA, THE BIGGER THE IMPORTANCE OF DATA QUALITY

• ROUGHLY RIGHT IS QUICKER AND BETTER THAN PRECISELY WRONG

• THE REAL POWER OF ANALYTICS IS WHEN YOU MASH TOGETHER DATA

4 - CONCLUSIONS

4 - CONCLUSIONS

1. INTRODUCTION

2. DEFINITIONS

3. CASE STUDY THEMES:

I. JUST HOW SMALL CAN SMALL BE?

II.ARE BIGGEST CUSTOMERS PROFITABLE?

III.THE VALUE OF MASHUPS

IV.SHINING A LIGHT ON DARK PLACES

V. JUST HOW ACCURATELY DO YOU NEED TO BE WRONG?

4. CONCLUSIONS

5. Q&A

oEMAIL: [email protected]

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oMEETUP: MEETUP MASHUP LONDON: HTTP://WWW.MEETUP.COM/MEETUP-MASHUP-

LONDON/

oBLOGGER: HTTP://MEETUPMASHUP.BLOGSPOT.CO.UK/

5 – QUESTIONS ?