QUY M V THI iM U T**CHNG 5

**Nhng van e thao luan trong bai nayQuy mo au tThi iem bat au d anThi iem ket thuc d an

**Tai sao phai nghien cu chu e nayQUY MO TOI U (OPTIMAL SCALE) Mot d an tot nhng xac nh quy mo khong phu hp, hoac qua ln hoac qua nho, se lam giam hieu qua cua d an. Mot d an a c tham nh, ket luan la d an tot. Nhng au t quy mo nao se mang lai hieu qua cao nhat.

**Tai sao phai nghien cu chu e nayTHI IEM AU T (TIMING) Thi iem bat au d an: au t sm hn hoac tre hn se mang lai hieu qua thp hn. Thi iem ket thuc d an:Neu tiep tuc duy tr d an, li ch rong mang ve se nho hn chi ph rong bo ra.

**QUI MO AU TY tng cua quy mo au t la van e le thuoc cua d an vao cac yeu to: Cau cua san pham; Quy luat gia ca th trng; Quy luat doanh thu bien va chi ph bien (MR=MC).

**QUI MO AU TQuy mo au t thch hp la quy mo ma o NPV cua d an at cc ai, tc la mc li ch rong at cao nhat.

**QUI MO AU T Nguyen tac quan trong nhat e xac nh quy mo au t la xem xet phan quy mo tang them cung giong nh xem xet mot d an mi. Co ngha la quy mo cua toan bo d an tiep tuc tang cho en khi nao hien gia cua phan quy mo tang them bang khong (zero).MNPV = 0(Marginal NPV: con goi la NPV can bien hay bien te)

**QUI MO AU TMNPV = 0 NPV = Max Khi MNPV = 0 th NPV cua toan bo d an se at cc ai. Ngha la neu quy mo tang them na se lam cho MNPV < 0, tc lam cho NPV cua toan bo d an se giam i.

**QUI MO AU TNPVmaxNPV0S1S2S toi uQuy moKhai quat ve quy mo toi u cua d an

**QUI MO AU TMNPV = 0 MIRR=iKhi MNPV = 0 th IRR cua phan tang them se bang vi suat chiet khau i. Ta goi o la IRR can bien, hay bien te, va ky hieu la: MIRR (Marginal IRR). Lu y: ieu nay phu hp vi ac iem moi quan he gia NPV va IRR noi chung:NPV = 0 IRR = i

**QUI MO AU TNPV cc ai tai quy mo toi uSuat chiet khau: 10%

Nam012345...Cac ch tieuQuymoChiphLi chNPVIRRS0-3700300300300300300...-7008.11%S1-4700430430430430430...-4009.15%S2-5700590590590590590...20010.35%S3-6700750750750750750...80011.19%S4-7700850850850850850...80011.04%S5-8700910910910910910...40010.46%

**QUI MO AU TMNPV = 0 & MIRR = r tai quy mo toi uSuat chiet khau: 10%

Nam012345...Cac ch tieuThay oiquy moChi phgia tangLi ch gia tangDNPVMIRRS0-3700300300300300300...-7008.11%S1-S0-1000130130130130130...30013.00%S2-S1-1000160160160160160...60016.00%S3-S2-1000160160160160160...60016.00%S4-S3-1000100100100100100...010.00%S5-S4-10006060606060...-4006.00%

**QUI MO AU TNPV giam dan sau quy mo toi u

**THI IEM AU TY tng cua van e xac nh thi iem bat au la:So sanh Li ch va Chi ph;Neu Li ch nho hn Chi ph, quyet nh hoan au t.

**THI IEM AU TCac trng hp can lu y ve tnh tng quan gia Li ch Chi ph qua thi gian khi xem xet thi iem au t:Li ch va Chi ph au t khong oi;Li ch thay oi va chi ph au t khong oi;Li ch va Chi ph au t thay oi.

**THI IEM AU TLi ch va Chi ph au t khong oiCac ky hieu: B: Li ch rong; K: Chi ph au t; t: thi iemKt

**THI IEM AU TLi ch thay oi (tang) va Chi ph au t khong oi tBt+1KtBt+2 > Bt+1 BtKt+1Kt+2 = Kt+1 = KtKt

**THI IEM AU TLi ch va Chi ph au t thay oiBttKtBt+1KtKt+1 > Kt Bt+2 > Bt+1 BtKt

**THI IEM AU T Cac nguyen tac xac nhMoi ong tien eu co c hoi sinh li, toi thieu la bang vi suat chiet khau d an.Neu au t tre hn, von au t K co the sinh li so tien Ki. Trong o, i la chi ph c hoi von, hay lai suat.Trng hp chi ph au t tang theo thi gian, t nh tang gia, khi so sanh Li ch Chi ph phai tnh en s mat mat them nay.

**THI IEM KET THUCY tng cua van e xac nh thi iem ket thuc d an cung giong nh thi iem au t la: So sanh Li ch va Chi ph; Neu Li ch nho hn Chi ph, quyet nh ket thuc d an; ngc lai th nen tiep tuc.

**THI IEM KET THUCCac nguyen tac xac nhMoi ong tien eu co kha nang sinh li, toi thieu bang vi suat chiet khau d an;Khi ket thuc d an, thu c gia tr thanh ly (ban tai san hoac ban ca d an).Neu ket thuc tre hn, gia tr thanh ly se thap hn do tai san hao mon nhieu hn;Ngc lai, ket thuc sm hn se mat i li ch cua nam ke tiep; Va,Li ch cua d an th giam dan theo thi gian.

**THI IEM KET THUCLi ch giam dan theo thi gian

**THI IEM KET THUCGia tr thanh ly giam dan qua thi gian

**THI IEM KET THUCtnh toan thi iem ket thucNeu ket thuc d an vao nam t, se mat i li ch thu c cac nam ke tiep, tnh t nam t+1 la:Bt+1,Bt+2,Bt+nNeu ket thuc d an vao nam t+1, se mat i li ch thu c cac nam ke tiep, tnh t nam t+2 va mat them c hoi sinh li cua gia tr thanh ly la:(Bt+2,Bt+3,Bt+n) + (SVt SVt+1) + SVti Trong o:(Bt+2,Bt+3,Bt+n): Li ch thu c t nam t+2;(SVt SVt+1): Phan giam i cua gia tr thanh ly; SVti : C hoi sinh li cua so tien thanh ly.

**THI IEM KET THUCquyet nh ket thucQuyet nh ket thuc d an vao nam t neu:Bt+1 < (SVt SVt+1) + SVtiY ngha: Li ch thu c cua nam (t+1) nho hn li ch thu c neu ket thuc d an vao nam t.

Ngc lai se quyet nh ket thuc d an vao nam t+1 neu:Bt+1 > (SVt SVt+1) + SVtiY ngha: Li ch thu c cua nam (t+1) ln hn li ch thu c neu ket thuc d an vao nam t.