Chris SavageNuclear Industry AssociationCIC Economic and Policy Forum 24th June 2011

The Prospects for Nuclear New Build

• The voice of the UK civil nuclear Industry

• 250 members across whole nuclear sector

• Members range from utilities to small enterprises

About the NIA

NIA with DECC Secretary of State Chris Huhne at the Lib Dem Party Conference (2010)

NIA – membership diversity

• Utilities, Contractors and vendors• Fuel cycle and decommissioning• Civil, process, design and multi-

discipline engineering• Project management, engineering,

safety case and consultancy• Equipment and component

manufacturers• Legal, financial, insurance, training

and agency services

SC@nuclear

The Essential Guideto the new build nuclear supply chainStage One February 2011

Supply Chain Development

• Pioneer in nuclear generation

• Full fuel cycle capability• Highly skilled workforce• Mature and flexible

supply chain

UK Nuclear Industry

Source: DECC, 2009 Digest of UK Energy Statistics

Coal

Oil

Gas

Nuclear

Renewable

Hydro

Other

•Coal - 28%

•Oil - 1%

•Nuclear – 18.5%

•Gas – 44.5%

•Renewable – 3.5%

•Hydro - 1%

•Other – 3.5%

The UK electricity mix

Sizewell B, PWR Suffolk

Nuclear’s global contribution

• 14% world electricity• 32% EU electricity• 436 plants operating• 63 plants under construction• 13 plants started in 2010• 156 ordered or planned• 332 proposed

Nuclear New Build Projections About 230* new nuclear power plants will be ordered by 2020

Market research

• North America - EPRI reported that 64 GWe of new nuclear capacity in the USA by 2030 - Government R&D funding for nuclear is being revived.

• China - Increase in nuclear capacity to 40GWe by 2020 and its target for nuclear capacity in 2030 is 160GWe.

• India - India expects to have 20GWe(30 units) nuclear capacity on line by 2020

• Asia - Japan : 12 units of new plant will be on line by 2020 - Korea : 10 units will be placed order by 2020 - Thailand : planning to 4 GWe nuclear capacity by 2020 - Vietnam and Indonesia are planning to adopt nuclear options by early 2010s (7 units)

• South Africa - South Africa expects nuclear capacity to increase to about 11 GWe by 2020

* WNA reports and DOOSAN’s analysis

New plants order projections by 2020

China

India

Russia

Korea

Japan

N. America

Asia

Africa

France

E. Europe

U.K.

(40)

(30)

(40)

(10)

(12)

(44)

(11)

(11)

(10)

(11)

(10)

Total (229)

UK Nuclear Renaissance

• Three new build consortia

• Plans for 16GW of new plant

• Typical plant £8bn capital spend

• Multi-unit sites

• 5000 construction jobs per site at peak

• First commissioning in 2018

Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change, Rt. Hon Chris Huhne MP: “Safety is and will continue to be our number one priority. I am pleased that today’s report confirms that the UK’s current safety arrangements are working.”

Chief Nuclear Inspector, Dr. Mike Weightman: “The extreme natural events that preceded the accident at Fukushima – the magnitude 9 earthquake and subsequent huge tsunami – are not credible in the UK…But we are not complacent. No matter what the differences are, and how high the standard of design and subsequent operation of the nuclear facilities here in the UK, the quest for improvement must never stop.”

Interim report on Fukushima by the Chief Nuclear Inspector

Sizewell B 2035

Closure dates for AGR and PWR fleet

Hartlepool2014Heysham 12014Hinkley Point B2016Hunterston B 2016Dungeness B 2018Heysham 22023Torness 2023

Next GenerationCapacity Profile

Nuclear is low carbon

0100200300400500600700800900

1000

Grams per kWhr

Nuclear is affordable

Nuclear

Parsons Brinkerhoff, May 2008

Where are we now…

•Justification: Completed October 2010

•GDA: Conclusions, September 2011

•National Policy Statements: Approval expected Summer 2011

•Electricity Market Reform: White Paper expected July 2011

•Investment approval for first plant: 2012

2016 2017 20182012 2013 2014 20152008 2009 2010 2011W

HIT

E P

AP

ER

, JAN

. 2008

2008 20132009 2010 2011 2012 20182014 2015 2016 2017

Nuclear NPS

FIRST FDPs

CONSTRUCTION

REGULATORY HOLD POINTS AND PERMISSIONS

FIRST PLANNING

FIRST SITE LICENSING

IPC ready

JUSTIFICATION

W&D FUNDING

SSA

COMMERCIAL OPERATION

GDA

INDICATIVE TIMELINE FOR FIRST NEW NUCLEAR POWER STATIONS

Generic activity

Project-specific activity

Nominated and approved sites

1. Bradwell, Essex, NDA

2. Hartlepool, Durham, EDF Energy

3. Heysham, Lancashire, EDF Energy

4. Hinkley Point, Somerset, EDF Energy

5. Oldbury, Gloucestershire, the NDA and

Eon

6. Sellafield, Cumbria, NDA

7. Sizewell, Suffolk, EDF Energy

8. Wylfa, Anglesey, RWE npower and the

NDA

New Build Plans for UK

EDF Energy UK(EDF Energy/Centrica Joint Venture)2 x 1600 MW EPRs for Hinkley2 x 1600 MW EPRs for Sizewell1st operating 2018, 4 by 2025second tranche to follow

NuGeneration Ltd(Iberdrola/GDF Suez/SSE Joint Venture)Up to 3600MW operating by 2025Technology to be decided

Horizon Nuclear Power Ltd(RWE/EoN Joint Venture)6000 MW operating by 2025Technology to be decided in 2011

New build locations

AREVA EPR

• PWR - 1650 Mwe

• Being built in Finland and France

• 2 being built in China

• Traditional layout & improved safety & design

• Seeking UK localisation

AP1000®

• Based on principles of simplicity and standardisation

• Modular approach to construction

• 10 units under contract around the world

• Of these, four are currently under construction in China - first unit will be

on line in late 2013

Supply Chain Hierarchy

Schematic Order Timeline for UK Nuclear New Build Programme

Next Generation16GWe Scenario

Next GenerationWorkforce for 16GWe New Build

w w w . n u c l e a r s u p p l y c h a i n . c o m

www.niauk.org