Chris Pedersen LNG Pricing Analyst - Americas US LNG Exports · Chris Pedersen LNG Pricing Analyst - Americas . No content below the line No content below the line ... • Global

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US LNG Exports Chris Pedersen

LNG Pricing Analyst - Americas


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Agenda

3

• Global LNG Overview

• Infrastructure capabilities

• Supply

• Demand

• US LNG Overview

• Liquefaction Capacity

• US LNG deliveries

• Pricing Mechanisms for Global & US LNG

• Evolution of contracts/prices


Putting global LNG in perspective

Private & Confidential 4

• Global Natural Gas Demand: ~122 Tcf or 335 Bcf/d (2015)

• Lower-48 US Natural Gas Demand: ~27.1 Tcf or 74Bcf/d (2016)

• Global LNG Demand: ~11.7 Tcf or 32 Bcf/d (2015)

• Roughly 70% of all gas is consumed in the country it is produced.

• Since 2000, LNG demand has grown about 6.6% a year, compared to

2.8% for natural gas.

• About 114 countries use natural gas as a fuel source, while only 33

nations import LNG.

Source: Platts Analytics’ Eclipse Data, IGU, IEA, CIA World Fact Book


Global LNG infrastructure overview


Liquefaction

Global LNG Liquefaction Capacity: 301.5 MTPA or 38.6 Bcf/d

2015 utilization rate: 81%

LNG Exporting Countries: 19

LNG Re-Exporting Countries: 10

IEA report forecasts liquefaction capacity to grow 45% between 2015-2021.

Regasification

Global LNG Regasification Capacity: 757 MTPA or 96.9 Bcf/d

2015 utilization rate: 32%

LNG importing countries: 37

Source: Platts Analytics’ Eclipse Data, IGU


Natural Gas

6

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Asia Pacific Middle East Europe Americas Africa

LNG exports by region

Vo

lum

e (

Bcf

)

Year to Sep 2015 Year to Sep 2016

Source: Platts Analytics’ Eclipse Data


Natural Gas

7

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

Qatar Australia Malaysia Indonesia United States

LNG exports by country


Source: Platts Analytics’ Eclipse Data


Natural Gas

8

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

Japan South Korea Middle East SouthAmerica

Europe China

LNG imports by country



Natural Gas

Source: Platts Analytics 9

Middle Eastern Demand Profile pre FSRUs

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oct-

14

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oct-

15

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

Ju

n-1

6

Ju

l-1

6

Au

g-1

6

Middle Eastern Demand (Mcm)

Dubai Kuwait


Natural Gas

Source: Platts Analytics 10

New Indian Ocean Demand

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oct-

14

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oct-

15

No

v-1

5

Dec-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

Ju

n-1

6

Ju

l-1

6

Au

g-1

6

Demand from the Middle East and Pakistan (Mcm of gas)

Dubai Kuwait Egypt Jordan Pakistan


Natural Gas

Source: Platts. Private & Confidential. 11

New Indian Ocean Demand

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Middle Eastern and South Asian Demand (Mcm of gas)

India Dubai Kuwait Egypt Jordan Pakistan


Natural Gas

12

• Jamaica – Golar Arctic FSU - 2016

• Malta – Waka Maru FSU - 2016

• Abu Dhabi – Excelerate – 2016

• Colombia – Hoegh Grace – 2016

• Ghana – Golar Tundra – 2017

• Pakistan – BW Integrity – 2017

• Egypt – Out to tender – 2017

FSRU’s going forward…


LNG Pricing Mechanisms


Oil-Indexed

Example: 13% of Brent

Gas-Linked

Example: 115% of NYMEX, contracts based off of differentials of NBP or TTF

Benchmarks

Example: Platts JKM™

Assessments

Example: Platts GCM, EAM, NWE, Des West India


Natural Gas

14

Continuous Pricing and Market Coverage

• As each market closes, information is passed onto the next desk in the following time-zone,

allowing for continuous price and market data gathering

• Allows for wider survey of market participants; portfolio players, traders, end-users etc..

Houston:

Gulf Coast

marker

assessed

at 13:30;

LNG Daily

published;

intel sent to

Singapore/

Tokyo

London: Atlantic

markers assessed

at 16:30; intel sent

to Houston Singapore: Platts

JKM™ and West

India assessed at

16:30; intel sent to

London


Natural Gas

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

JKM 14.5% Dated Brent + $0.50/MMBtu NBP Henry Hub

15

JKMTM

pricing since 2009 $

/MM

Btu

Source: S&P Global Platts


16

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

$4.50

$5.00

$5.50

$6.00

$6.50

$7.00

16

-Ju

n

23

-Ju

n

30

-Ju

n

7-J

ul

14

-Ju

l

21

-Ju

l

28

-Ju

l

4-A

ug

11

-Au

g

18

-Au

g

25

-Au

g

1-S

ep

8-S

ep

15

-Sep

22

-Sep

29

-Sep

6-O

ct

13

-Oct

West India NBP JKM GCM

Prices as of October 20, 2016

Platts launches the FOB Gulf Coast Marker (GCM)


Thank You Chris Pedersen North America LNG Analyst Managing Editor – LNG Daily S&P Global Platts [email protected]

Documents

Chris Pedersen LNG Pricing Analyst - Americas US LNG Exports · Chris Pedersen LNG Pricing Analyst - Americas . No content below the line No content below the line ... • Global