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Carlos Blanco CáceresGeneral Director of Indebtedness and Public Treasury
Washington, October 19th 2016
Choosing between USD or EUR -denominated debt in the international markets…or go local !!!
2
Contents
Evolution of Public Debt and Finance Strategy1
Composition and Election of Foreign Currency Debt3
Debt Management : Focus on Local Currency and Local Market2
Or go Local !!!4
3
Both short-term and long-term debt to GDP levels
have fallen significantly…
Short-term and Long-term Debt
(% of GDP)*
-
10
20
30
40
50
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2016
Long Term Short Term
…The administration expects indebtedness levels to remain low and below its regional peers as the fiscal deficit continues to consolidate…
Debt Average Life
(Years)**
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
sep
.-0
2
mar
.-0
3
sep
.-0
3
mar
.-0
4
sep
.-0
4
mar
.-0
5
sep
.-0
5
mar
.-0
6
sep
.-0
6
mar
.-0
7
sep
.-0
7
mar
.-0
8
sep
.-0
8
mar
.-0
9
sep
.-0
9
mar
.-1
0
sep
.-1
0
mar
.-1
1
sep
.-1
1
mar
.-1
2
sep
.-1
2
mar
.-1
3
sep
.-1
3
mar
.-1
4
sep
.-1
4
mar
.-1
5
sep
.-1
5
mar
.-1
6
sep
.-1
6
* Source: BCRP - Jun16 ** Source: MEF - Forecast Set 16
…while increasing the average life of its debt by printing longer-
dated transactions and executing liability management
transactions
1
2
1
4
... the sources of financing of the Republic come from asset management and internal and external liabilities ...
Fiscal Stabilization Fund
Local Market
CAF BID BIRF Others
Issuance of Soberanos
International Market
Issuance of Global Bonds
Contingency loans
Reserve size as of June 30, 2016
PEN 1,978mn; USD603mn
equivalent
National Emergency
International Crisis
Significant shortage of fiscal income
Savings
Mechanism
Assets Liabilities
USD 8,165mn
Fund size as of June 30, 2016
USD 4,400mn
Debt Capital Markets
Multilateral and Bilateral LoansSecondary Liquidity Reserve
Sources of Funds
Usage
Lines of defense to Finance Economic Growth
1
2
1
5
Contents
Evolution of Public Debt and Finance Strategy1
Composition and Election of Foreign Currency Debt3
Debt Management : Focus on Local Currency and Local Market2
Or go Local !!!4
6
... “Solarize” debt and develop local debt capital markets…
Debt management team has focused, and succeeded, in
de-dollarizing its debt profile…
Composition of Public Debt by Currency (1)(% of total debt)
Liability Management
2014 – 2016(Millions of dollars)
LM 2014
LM 2015
LM 2016
Peru has successfully issued local currency debt in the
international capital markets
64
57
44 42
5
3052
48
31
14
410
2004 2009 2014 2016 *
Dollars Soles Other
• No USD paper
• No New money
* Proforma Oct 16 - 2028 soberano bondSource: MEF
1
22
7
…Peru has significantly increased its Soberanos (PEN) debt stock by focusing on international format debt issuances (GDNs)…
Soberanos
USD Global Bonds
Debt Capital Markets
Linkers Treasury Bills
EUR Global Bonds
Local GDN’s
Local Market
International Market
Development of the local debt market through
sovereign bond issues in soles
taking advantage of windows of opportunity to
maintain liquidity/efficient yield curves
Over the past 10 years Peru has succesfuly increased its
Soberanos (PEN) debt stock by 6.7x compared to a growth
of 1.9x for its Global Bond (USD and EUR) debt stock…
Soberanos and Global Bonds
(PEN MM, USD/EUR MM, nominal)
6,513
8,5719,458
11,44012,578
8,092
26,008
32,961
44,849
54,563
Dec 05 Dec 10 Dec 13 Dec 15 Oct 16 *
Global
Soberanos
6.7x
1.9x
* 07-10-2016 ; Include Issue Bond 2028Source: MEF
1
22
8
…to diversify the basis of non-resident investors who have holdings in local currency debt…
Source: MEF and Bloomberg* 07-10-2016 ; Included Soberano Bond 2028
Foreign Ownership Holdings – Soberano Bonds
(as of October 2016 )
45%
55%52%
86%
…by focusing on PEN-denominated international
issuances that have further developed the PEN market
and significantly increased foreign-ownership of its
bonds
*
47%
Tender for Cash Aug
2028s
Foreign Local
7.840% Aug 2020s
PEN 4,196 MM
Issue date; Nov 10
5.700% Aug 2024s
PEN 7,128 MM
Issue date; Nov 14
6.950% Aug 2031s
PEN 4,392 MM
Issue date; Mar 15
6.350% Aug 2028s
PEN 10,251 MM
Issue date; Set 16
41.8%
58.2%
41.8%
Historical Series of Holdings – Soberanos Bonds
(% by investor class)
41.8%
58.2%
*
Foreign Local
30.00%
32.00%
34.00%
36.00%
38.00%
40.00%
42.00%
Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16
41.8%
1
22
9
- Develop and increase repo transactions (i.e. Repo to term)REPURCHASE AGREEMENT (REPO)
- Increase depth and liquidity and include treasury billsMARKET MAKERS PROGRAM
- Manage debt stock to optimize cost and debt profileLIABILITY MANAGEMENT EXERCISES
- Issue benchmarks with large volumes (liquid)RELEVANT BENCHMARKS
- Diversify investor baseINTERNATIONAL SETTLEMENT PLATFORMS
ACTION PLAN TO ENHANCE THE PUBLIC DEBT MARKET
…the administration will continue to develop its local market and strengthen its standing as one of the premier issuers in the region…
SECURITIES LENDING/SHORT SELLING
To come :
LIABILITY MANAGEMENT IN LOCAL MARKET
- Provide liquidity to the secondary market
- Optimize debt profile
SOVEREIGN DEBT FUND - Develop Peruvian Treasury Index / Securities Lending
1
22
10
Contents
Evolution of Public Debt and Finance Strategy1
Composition and Election of Foreign Currency Debt3
Debt Management : Focus on Local Currency and Local Market2
Or go Local !!!4
11
Drivers for decision making on foreign currency debt ...
Tap international markets when there is low external-and-domestic-demand for local currency debt
(not now !!!)
Look for natural currency hedges (exports revenues vs currency of debt)
Take advantage of windows of opportunity during moments of minimum rate levels
Diversify the investor base
Keep yield curves in USD and EUR updated
Optimize public debt profile through liability management exercises
1
2
3
12
... External Debt Profile...
External Debt by Currency
1) Source: MEF
External Debt by source of funds
Redirect the foreign currency debt toward capital markets through global bonds in USD and EUR
Expand and diversify investor base reducing the share of multilaterals
Diversify currencies (EUR vs USD)
38%
47%
56%
61% 62%
36%39%
31%27% 26%26%
14% 13%11% 12%
Dec 05 Dec 10 Dec 13 Dec 15 Aug 16
Bonds Mult. Loans Others
68%
83%
90%87%
82%
11% 10%6% 4% 5%
11%
4% 2%7%
12%9%
3% 2% 1% 1%
Dec 05 Dec 10 Dec 14 Dec 15 Aug 16
USD JPY EUR Others
1
2
3
13
…why are we issuing in EUR rather than USD ?
1
2
3
Because of low absolute rates/coupons
Access to a new pool of investors
Prepare for OECD access to attract new investors and tighten spreads
…what are the main differences between both markets?
The USD market is larger, more liquid and has more players with different profiles
The USD market uses traditional tenors while the EUR market may adapt to issuers’ needs
But, the EUR market still prefers shorter tenors
EUR investors are more buy and hold
14
... financing in foreign currency depends on the demand for local debt and windows of opportunity in USD and EUR
Provide better liquidity
Diversify currencies looking for natural hedges
Lower risk of funding by diversifying markets
Continue to grow the depth and breadth of its high quality investor base
Increase pool of investors
While the Republic has focused on “Solarization”, it remains committed to both its
USD and EUR curves, and, over time, will continue to tap these markets to:
1
2
3
15
Contents
Evolution of Public Debt and Finance Strategy1
Composition and Election of Foreign Currency Debt3
Debt Management : Focus on Local Currency and Local Market2
Or go Local !!!4
16
…switch 2017, 2020, 2023 and 2026 Soberanos Bonds and 2019, 2025, 2033 and 2037 Global Bonds to new 2028 Soberano Bond
Soberano 2017
Soberano 2020
Soberano 2023
Soberano 2026
Global 2019
Global 2025
Global 2033
Global 2037
Target Bonds
Total outstanding of target bonds: USD 12,872 MM
Average success rate: 27%
Total switch amount : USD 3,042 MM (S / 10, 251 MM)
Target BondsOutstanding
(USD MM equivalent)
Switched / Tendered(USD MM equivalent)
Soberano 2017 682 522
Soberano 2020 1,842 618
Soberano 2023 1,770 740
Soberano 2026 2,430 368
Global 2019 692 342
Global 2025 2,009 307
Global 2033 2,245 92
Global 2037 1,202 52
TOTAL 12,872 3,042
2028 Soberano Bond
Outstanding (USD MM equivalent) 3,042.0
Maturity August 2028
Cupon 6.350%
Price 99.851%
Yield 6.375%
2028 SOBERANO BOND
1
2
4
17
... optimize public debt profile by retiring short-term bonds, both in PEN and USD, with high coupons and/or inefficient prices...
New Profile of Public Debt
New 2028 soberano bond
1
2
4
18
... while generating interest savings, increased “solarization” and average life of public debt...
Achieved goals:
Generated interest savings for an amount of USD 36.0 MM (S / 121.3 MM)
Increased “solarization” from 45.8% to 47.5%.
Increased average life from 11.7 to 12.2 years
Generated positive net present value (NPV) of USD 24.5 MM (S / 82.7 MM)
Reduced “Dollarization” from 54.8% to 53.1%
1
2
4