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Chinese Coal & US-China Coal Trade
Kevin Jianjun Tu, Senior AssociateCarnegie Endowment for International Peace
The Energy Bar Association & Asian Americans in Energy, the Environment, and Commerce
Washington DC
May 13th, 2013
Drivers Underlying Global Energy Trend
Source: BP World Statistical Review 2012, NBS, U.S. Census Bureau.
70%
30% 23%
4.0%
24% 27%
0.7% 5.2% 8.4%
18% 34% 37%
Category Absolute Per capitaCoal 3.66 0.85Oil 0.55 0.13Gas 0.19 0.04Nuclear 0.10 0.02Hydro 2.11 0.49Renewables 0.39 0.09Energy 1.15 0.27CO2 1.49 0.35
China/U.S. in 2011
Dependency on Foreign Oil: China vs. US
Source: NBS, US EIA.
CNOOCUnocal (2005)
CNOOCNexen (2012)
China U.S.
Source: US EIA, NBS, ERI, IEA, own estimation.
Environmental Constraints
68%
64%
64%
24%
13%
19%
17%22%10%
Gt of CO2 Emissions
7
Chinese Coal Value Chain
• 2nd largest coal reserves behind U.S.
• Distribution of coal resources
• Lack of coking coal
• Quality deterioration of thermal coal
Coal Production Coal TransportCoal Resources Coal Use• 46% of global total• 80% global
fatalities in early 2000s
• Half by key SOEs, 1/3 by private mines
• Half by ultra-small mines in 1995 -> minimal
• 47%of global total• half Chinese coal
used for power generation, 9% for iron & steel, 7% for non-metal minerals, 5% for coal chemicals
• National coal consumption cap
• 48% of national coal output was shipped by rail
• 36% by major coastal ports
• 15% by inland• Integrated
railway + coastal marine transport
• Bottlenecks
Coal Exports Peaked in 2003
China encouraged
coal exports
Source: NBS and China Customs.
Chinese Coal Imports/Exports Global coal trade is about
one third of China’s domestic coal market.
China became a net coal importer in 2009.
China passed Japan as the world’s largest coal importer in 2011.
China’s coal imports in 2012 up 58%, reaching 289Mt.
At least 6 coal export facilities proposed along the West Coast with aggregate capacity at >120 Mt/annum
Source: Energy Review.
Sources of China’s Gas Supply
bcm • Can conventional fields deliver as expected?
• Problem with CBM development. • Is coal-to-gas compatible with
China’s conservation goals?• Can shale gas be kicked off?• Can pipeline gas deal with Russia
overcome pricing dispute?• Is U.S. a potential LNG supplier?