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Tianjin Shenyang Dalian Nanjing Hangzhou Xiamen Qingdao Zhengzhou Wuhan Guangzhou Shenzhen Nanning Chongqing Xi’an Urumqi Chinese Cities of Opportunity Executive Summary

Chinese Cities of Opportunity - PwC...PwC China has also interviewed several international and local scholars, entrepreneurs, and industry experts for the study. These interviews have

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  • TianjinShenyangDalianNanjing

    HangzhouXiamenQingdaoZhengzhou

    WuhanGuangzhouShenzhenNanning

    ChongqingXi’anUrumqi

    Chinese Cities of OpportunityExecutive Summary

  • Urbanisation is the cornerstone of modern civilisation. In 2011, China’s urban population exceeded 50% of the national total for the first time, reaching 51.27%, marking a significant milestone in the country’s urbanisation development. China’s urbanisation rose further in 2012 to 52.57%, in line with the global average.

    In the past three decades, China has remained the country with the fastest urbanisation rate in the world. When economic reforms were introduced in 1978, urban residents only represented 17.92% of China’s total population. In other words, more than 80% of Chinese people lived in rural areas. With the economic boom brought about by China’s reform and opening-up policy, over 50% of the population now live and work in cities. Given the sheer size of China’s population, this dramatic social change is no mean feat in the history of human civilisation. However, rapid urbanisation has triggered a series of challenges, which include air pollution, underdeveloped public utilities in urban area, insufficient public facilities, soaring property prices, and an imbalanced re-distribution of public resources arising from the current urban-rural dual system.

    Urbanisation is an inevitable process for China as it embarks on its modernisation drive. There are two ways to further the process of urbanisation. One is to continue with the old “quasi-urbanisation” model, which is characterised by heavy investment and high energy consumption at the cost of a well-rounded development for China’s people. Another is the new urbanisation model, which is inclusive, sustainable and aimed at improving the Chinese people’s development and well-being. It is clear which option we should adopt. While there is still time to make adjustments at this interim stage of urbanisation, we need to be mindful of the necessity to step up on our research efforts and draw on useful references for policymaking.

    There is no lack of consultation reports and academic papers on Chinese urbanisation. Employing an original research methodology, PwC’s Chinese Cities of Opportunity gives a new perspective to urbanisation development in China. Methodologies used for the research on other global key cities in recent years have been applied to China in this report. We looked at 15 Chinese cities, using 10 indicators to assess their competitiveness, influence and growth potential. These findings will provide a better understanding of each city’s unique strengths and characteristics, serving as a learning platform for all 15 of them. While these cities were ranked in terms of their economic development, the findings in this report, as with any other index-based rankings, by no means are an appraisal of their performance. These cities face different development conditions and are at different stages of development. The speed of development also varies from city to city. So what is more important for these cities is to understand ways to maximise their advantages and overcome their disadvantages in order to explore their full potential.

    China Development Research Foundation (CDRF) is deeply honoured to have had the opportunity to be involved in the development of this report. I would also like to express my sincere appreciation and admiration for PwC’s active corporate responsibility programme and its contribution towards China’s development and progress. Many thanks to the PwC and CDRF teams for their hard work in completing Chinese Cities of Opportunity.

    Lu Mai Secretary-General of China Development Research Foundation

    1 Chinese Cities of Opportunity

    The opportunity of China’s new urbanisation

  • PwC 2

    Since 2007, PwC US and the Partnership for New York City have jointly produced the Cities of Opportunity report. This study examines current social and economic performance indicators of the world’s leading cities while hoping to share lessons for building a more prosperous urban future. In 2012, the study looked at 27 cities worldwide, including New York, London, Toronto, Paris, Stockholm, Singapore, Tokyo, Sydney, and Seoul. The report also examined three major Chinese cities (Beijing, Shanghai, and Hong Kong). In that survey, Beijing was ranked the number-one city in terms of economic clout.

    Analysis of the Chinese cities in the report prompted PwC China to consider the possibility of developing a “China study” of Cities of Opportunity—an idea that was enthusiastically embraced by our Beijing team. The study applied the same methodologies as the Cities of Opportunity report, but featured 15 Chinese cities (excluding Beijing and Shanghai) as its target cities. In order to ensure data consistency and availability, the study surveyed the development of the Chinese cities on 10 indicators, including intellectual capital and innovation; regional city gateway; technology readiness; health, safety and security; transportation and urban planning; sustainability and the natural environment; demographics and livability; economic clout; ease of doing business; and cost. By leveraging the research methodology and perspectives of the Cities of Opportunity report, the Chinese Cities of Opportunity report can provide an insightful perspective on Chinese cities’ development, as well as help to further explore the many opportunities available in them.

    It is PwC China’s great honor to have the generous support of the research team of the China Development Research Foundation (CDRF), which helped us successfully complete the report. This is another key collaboration with CDRF after the joint survey report, Choosing China: Insights from multinationals on the investment environment, launched in the China Development Forum last year.

    PwC China has also interviewed several international and local scholars, entrepreneurs, and industry experts for the study. These interviews have added significant depth to our survey, and I would like to thank everyone for their contributions.

    We hope that this year’s Chinese Cities of Opportunity report is only a beginning. Going forward, with our growing research experience, PwC China will continue to provide observations and insights on China’s urbanisation, hoping to be able to make some modest contribution to the process of China’s economic development and social progress.

    Dennis Nally Chairman, PwC

    Finding the path to new urbanisation with China

  • 3 Chinese Cities of Opportunity

    Overview

    When we decided to study and analyse Chinese cities using the same methodology applied to the sample of 27 cities in the global report, our first question was which criteria to base on in selecting the cities in China for this research. In the midst of answering this question, we realised that it was more difficult and complex to determine which Chinese cities to include in our sample than to decide on the international cities to be included in the global report.

    China is a vast country with a long and rich history, with a varied topography and diverse traditions. Since China’s reform and opening-up policy, many Chinese cities have experienced rapid growth, with each city developing their own unique industrial base, cultural environment, natural endowment and influence. Therefore, if we were to select a sample of Chinese cities based on

    population size, economic development or the criteria of financial characteristics and cultural features as adopted in the global report, it would make the task very difficult. At the end of 2012, mainland China consisted of 4 municipal cities and 285 cities of prefecture levels and above. The selection scope was initially restricted to the 4 municipal cities, 5 cities listed independently in the state plan, and 27 provincial and autonomous regional capitals. Basing the selection next on our expectations for China’s future urban agglomeration pattern, we came up with 6 major regions: Northeast China, North China, Yangtze River Delta, Pan-Pearl River Delta, Central China and Northwest China. On this basis, we then selected the highly strategic central cities within these regions. Finally, under the guidance of CDRF, we selected the 15 cities as subjects for Chinese Cities of Opportunity. These cities were (in the order that the Chinese administrative divisions are listed) Tianjin, Shenyang, Dalian, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Xiamen, Qingdao, Zhengzhou, Wuhan, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Nanning, Chongqing, Xi’an and Urumqi. From a geographical point of view, we selected 9 cities from Eastern China and 6 cities in Central and Western China. Alternatively, using the Yangtze River as a divider, 7 of the chosen Chinese cities

    City selection

    CBD, Tianhe district, Guangzhou

  • PwC 4

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    14 Urumqi

    Chongqing

    Nanning

    ZhengzhouXi’an

    Qingdao

    Dalian

    Nanjing

    Shenyang

    Tianjin

    Wuhan Hangzhou

    GuangzhouShenzhen

    Xiamen

    are to the north of it and the rest are to the south. These cities are important hubs within China’s economic network, as well as key channels for international economic exchange. Coincidentally, PwC has offices in 11 of these 15 surveyed cities, which indicates that the establishment of PwC’s China offices is in line with the course of China’s reform and opening up. The word “opportunity” in Chinese Cities of Opportunity refers to the chance to take up opportunities for globalisation purposes amidst the global economic recovery. It also refers to the opportunities to participate in “Chinese-style urbanisation”, a trend that will have a decisive effect on resource allocation, as forecast in the Third Plenum of the 18th CPC Central Committee. These are opportunities for all cities in China. These 15 cities are a selected sample group for our research.

    Beijing and Shanghai, which were already included in the Cities of Opportunity 2012 global report and evaluated based on the same criteria, were excluded from our latest scope of research. More importantly, as Beijing and Shanghai are huge international Chinese cities, they face a vastly different set of challenges and opportunities than other cities in China. As such, any comparison is unlikely to yield meaningful results.

    Most of the targeted cities in this report are from Eastern China primarily because they have a comparatively greater influence in the country. We also exercised discretion in our selection of the cities in Eastern China. For example, we chose Xiamen in Fuzhou province for its strategic influence on cross-strait exchanges and cooperation; Qingdao in

    Shandong province was selected because of its economic and trade relations with Japan and South Korea in Northeast Asia. In Central China, we selected Zhengzhou and Wuhan. Zhengzhou is the largest city in the Central Plains, and is right at the core of the development strategy of the “Rise of Central China Plan”. Wuhan, a major transportation hub and an important base for heavy industry, also made the cut. Wuhan, a major transportation hub and an important base for heavy industry, also made the cut. From Western China, we selected four targets, namely Urumqi, the hub of China’s new Silk Road as well as the country’s Northwestern gateway; Xi’an, an ancient capital; Chongqing, an important Southwestern city; and Nanning, the city with the most direct economic and cultural links with ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) countries.

  • 5 Chinese Cities of Opportunity

    Research methodology and data sources

    While it is unrealistic to have the research on Chinese cities adopt the same evaluation system used in the global report, we have made efforts to maintain the overall integrity of the framework within the localisation process. This includes the setting up of the 10 indicators used in the global study as well as a number of variables within each indicator. These 10 indicators are:

    • Intellectual capital and innovation

    • Regional city gateway

    • Technology readiness

    • Health, safety and security

    • Transportation and urban planning

    • Sustainability and the natural environment

    • Demographics and livability

    • Economic clout

    • Ease of doing business

    • Cost

    Based on these indicators, we explored a number of deeper issues, including regional management, education, urban landscapes, sustainable development, traffic congestion, urban conservation. Chinese Cities of Opportunity used the same variables as those adopted in Cities of Opportunity 2012, with a total of 60 variables. As there are different research

    perspectives between Chinese and global cities, the following 4 variables from the global report were redefined for the Chinese report: “Political environment”, “Ease of entry: the number of countries with visa waiver”, “Ease of entry: the number of foreign embassies or consulates” and “Total tax rate”. For example, we replaced “Political environment” with “Administrative transparency”.

    All data used in this report was obtained through publicly available sources, with references to government statistics and publications. These included data from the National Bureau of Statistics, statistical yearbooks issued by the various cities, statistical bulletins and reports issued by institutions affiliated with the national government, the blue book and green paper series issued by the Social Sciences Academic Press, academic reports from authoritative institutions and statistical data from industry associations. Data from the 2012-2013 period was used in certain cases.

    It is inevitable that differences in scores may arise from quantitative data analysis, which ultimately affects the sample cities’ rankings. We decided at the outset that we would use a scoring system for transparency and simplicity purposes.

    Based on data pertaining to each variable that we collected for each city, we assigned scores (from highest to lowest) to each of the 15 cities. 15 being the highest score (the best performance) and 1 being the lowest score (the worst performance). In the case of a tie, the cities were assigned the same score.

    After scoring and ranking the 60 variables, we allocated variables to the 10 indicators. Within every indicator, we summed up the total scores for each variable to obtain the final scores for the 10 indicators of each city. Final scores were then aggregated on this basis that resulted in the final rankings.

    We hope to construct a general and objective evaluation system to provide the Chinese government with references and suggestions for their policy formulation and development plans under the “New Urbanisation” scheme. This is also aimed at establishing a foundation for future analysis of Chinese cities through an authentic and reliable research methodology.

  • PwC 6

    After all 60 variables were rated, Shenzhen emerged with the highest overall score, receiving top scores for 5 out of 10 indicators. Shenzhen’s urbanisation history only went back 30-plus years from its humble beginning as a fishing village, making its case the most unusual of China’s urbanisation development. As the city borders Hong Kong, the late Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping designated Shenzhen an “experimental field” at the beginning of China’s reform and opening up. Even to this day, Shenzhen’s urban construction framework is built on the core ideology of emancipated thinking and innovative practices. This won Shenzhen the title of an “urban construction miracle”. The city’s growth also reflects the “China miracle”.

    Guangzhou and Nanjing, two well-known historical cities, came in second and third respectively. Together with Shenzhen, they are China’s leading cities.

    Guangzhou scored high in most of the indicators even if it did not top any particular one of them. Because of this, Guangzhou’s total score was only slightly less than Shenzhen’s. As for Nanjing, it topped the rankings for both the “Intellectual capital and innovation” and “Demographics and livability” indicators, suggesting that there’s a new-found vitality even in the historical city.

    It is interesting to note that Shenzhen has only had 30 years of urban history while Guangzhou and Nanjing had a much longer history at it. Guangzhou began urbanising more than 2,200 years ago during the Qin Dynasty. Nanjing, known as the “ancient capital” for six dynasties, has a history spanning over 2,470 years.

    Wuhan, Tianjin, Hangzhou, Xiamen, Shenyang and Xi’an ranked in the middle among the 15 cities. Wuhan topped this band, scoring the highest for the “Health, safety and security” indicator while receiving average scores for most other indicators.

    Tianjin is one of China’s earliest municipal cities. While Tianjin scored quite highly in the indicators, the points were not enough to make the top rankings of this study. Hangzhou, a traditional tourist destination, also needs to improve its overall economic strength in the region. Even as a relatively small city, Xiamen played an important role in China’s opening-up policy, with

    its geographical advantages having helped in the facilitation of cross-strait exchanges. Shenyang, an old industrial base, faces challenges amidst China’s economic transition and modernisation drive. However, the city’s outstanding performance in the “Transportation and urban planning” indicator highlighted its recent immense progress. Xi’an’s “Cost” indicator score showed its clear advantage in this area and the city’s “Technology readiness” indicator score came close to those of the leading cities in this study.

    Dalian, Chongqing, Qingdao and Zhengzhou made the third band with their scores. Owing to its geographical location, Dalian is the sea port for China’s Northeastern region. While its scores in the “Health, safety and security”, “Economic clout” and “Cost” indicators were relatively high, the city scored lesser in other indicators. With its long history, Chongqing in the Southwestern part of China, garners much attention as one of the four municipal cities. It scored relatively high for the “Sustainability and

    Observation findings on the 15 cities

    Financial center plaza, Luohu district, Shenzhen

  • 7 Chinese Cities of Opportunity

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    Regional city gatewayIntellectual capital and innovation

    Technology readiness Health, safety and security

    Transportation and urban planning

    Sustainability and the natural environment

    Demographics and livability

    Economic clout Ease of doing business Cost Final score

    Nanning

    Urumqi

    Zhengzhou

    Qingdao

    Chongqing

    Dalian

    Xi’an

    Shenyang

    Xiamen

    Hangzhou

    Tianjin

    Wuhan

    Nanjing

    Guangzhou

    Shenzhen 93 84 50 26 61 61 36 70 104 9 594

    97 78 43 48 54 53 68 92 16 593

    115 47 45 49 59 38 48 47

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    68 50 566

    86 61 29 54 52 90 58 552

    87 58 30 29

    55

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    67 75 43 533

    99 53 45 51 30 46 87 26 519

    73 55 43 35

    42 40

    32 90 48 514

    77 41 26 37 66 31 44

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    46 69 67 504

    68 38 49 47 50 42 31 64 71 483

    66 31 34 48

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    22 52 68 60 473

    38 71 17 27

    35 46

    19 55 60 63 456

    67 35 22 45

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    25 51 70 55 451

    62 29 21 42 41 27 21 29 58 71 401

    39 33 15 30 41 18 20 44 43 55 338

    31 12 18 40 22 42 15 31 50 49 310

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    58

    43

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    40

    the natural environment”, “Economic clout” and “Cost” indicators but there is room for improvement in the other indicators. Qingdao’s scores were in the mid-to-low range for the “Regional city gateway” and “Technology readiness” indicators. Zhengzhou’s score was low in 5 indicators: “Regional city gateway”, “Technology readiness”, “Sustainability and the natural environment”, “Demographics and livability” and “Economic clout”.

    Urumqi and Nanning made the lowest band of this study because they received low scores in many of the indicators. Urumqi and Nanning had average scores for the “Cost” indicator. While Urumqi scored better in the “Regional city gateway” indicator, Nanning had a better performance in the “Sustainability and the natural environment” indicator and the “Fiscal balance” variable which is under the “Ease of doing business” indicator.

  • PwC 8

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    Regional city gatewayIntellectual capital and innovation

    Technology readiness Health, safety and security

    Transportation and urban planning

    Sustainability and the natural environment

    Demographics and livability

    Economic clout Ease of doing business Cost Final score

    Nanning

    Urumqi

    Zhengzhou

    Qingdao

    Chongqing

    Dalian

    Xi’an

    Shenyang

    Xiamen

    Hangzhou

    Tianjin

    Wuhan

    Nanjing

    Guangzhou

    Shenzhen 93 84 50 26 61 61 36 70 104 9 594

    97 78 43 48 54 53 68 92 16 593

    115 47 45 49 59 38 48 47

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    86 61 29 54 52 90 58 552

    87 58 30 29

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    67 75 43 533

    99 53 45 51 30 46 87 26 519

    73 55 43 35

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    32 90 48 514

    77 41 26 37 66 31 44

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    68 38 49 47 50 42 31 64 71 483

    66 31 34 48

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    38 71 17 27

    35 46

    19 55 60 63 456

    67 35 22 45

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    25 51 70 55 451

    62 29 21 42 41 27 21 29 58 71 401

    39 33 15 30 41 18 20 44 43 55 338

    31 12 18 40 22 42 15 31 50 49 310

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    East coast of Qingdao

  • 9 Chinese Cities of Opportunity

    Urumqi Chongqing Nanning Zhengzhou Qingdao Shenyang Wuhan Tianjin Dalian Guangzhou Xiamen Hangzhou Nanjing Xi'an Shenzhen

    ShenzhenChongqingTianjinUrumqiXiamenShenyangNanningZhengzhouQingdaoXi'anGuangzhouDalianNanjingHangzhouWuhan

    UrumqiNanningZhengzhouChongqingXi'anDalianNanjingShenyangQingdaoTianjinHangzhouWuhanXiamenGuangzhouShenzhen

    ShenzhenGuangzhouHangzhouTianjinXiamenNanningNanjingQingdaoUrumqiWuhanDalianChongqingShenyangZhengzhouXi'an1

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    Technology readiness Health, safety and security Ease of doing business Cost

    NanningChongqingUrumqiZhengzhouDalianQingdaoXi'anXiamenShenyangWuhanTianjinShenzhenGuangzhouHangzhouNanjing

    NanningZhengzhouDalianUrumqiQingdaoXi'anShenyangNanjingHangzhouXiamenTianjinWuhanChongqingGuangzhouShenzhen

    NanningChongqingUrumqiZhengzhouDalianQingdaoHangzhouShenzhenWuhanXiamenTianjinXi'anShenyangGuangzhouNanjing

    ZhengzhouXi'anNanningXiamenUrumqiShenyangHangzhouNanjingQingdaoWuhanDalianChongqingTianjinGuangzhouShenzhen1

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    Intellectual capital and innovation Regional city gateway Demographics and livability Economic clout

    NanningQingdaoZhengzhouXiamenUrumqiHangzhouChongqingDalianXi'anGuangzhouWuhanNanjingShenzhenTianjinShenyang

    UrumqiXi'anZhengzhouWuhanShenyangNanjingHangzhouTianjinNanningDalianQingdaoGuangzhouChongqingXiamenShenzhen1

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    Transportation and urban planning Sustainability and the natural environment

    Indicator rankings at a glance

  • PwC 10

    Urumqi Chongqing Nanning Zhengzhou Qingdao Shenyang Wuhan Tianjin Dalian Guangzhou Xiamen Hangzhou Nanjing Xi'an Shenzhen

    ShenzhenChongqingTianjinUrumqiXiamenShenyangNanningZhengzhouQingdaoXi'anGuangzhouDalianNanjingHangzhouWuhan

    UrumqiNanningZhengzhouChongqingXi'anDalianNanjingShenyangQingdaoTianjinHangzhouWuhanXiamenGuangzhouShenzhen

    ShenzhenGuangzhouHangzhouTianjinXiamenNanningNanjingQingdaoUrumqiWuhanDalianChongqingShenyangZhengzhouXi'an1

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    Technology readiness Health, safety and security Ease of doing business Cost

    NanningChongqingUrumqiZhengzhouDalianQingdaoXi'anXiamenShenyangWuhanTianjinShenzhenGuangzhouHangzhouNanjing

    NanningZhengzhouDalianUrumqiQingdaoXi'anShenyangNanjingHangzhouXiamenTianjinWuhanChongqingGuangzhouShenzhen

    NanningChongqingUrumqiZhengzhouDalianQingdaoHangzhouShenzhenWuhanXiamenTianjinXi'anShenyangGuangzhouNanjing

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    Intellectual capital and innovation Regional city gateway Demographics and livability Economic clout

    NanningQingdaoZhengzhouXiamenUrumqiHangzhouChongqingDalianXi'anGuangzhouWuhanNanjingShenzhenTianjinShenyang

    UrumqiXi'anZhengzhouWuhanShenyangNanjingHangzhouTianjinNanningDalianQingdaoGuangzhouChongqingXiamenShenzhen1

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    Transportation and urban planning Sustainability and the natural environment

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