China's Soft Diplomacy in an Emerging Multi-polar World

Keynote presentation for the conference"The Growing Prominence of China on the World Stage: Exploring the Political, Economic, and Cultural Relations of China and Global Stakeholders" International Conference, Berlin, September 15th - 18th, 2011 - Held Parallel to the "Berlin - Asia Pacific Weeks Conference 2011

Johannes Dragsbaek SchmidtAssociate Professor, Research Center on Development and International Relations,

Aalborg University AAU, Fibigerstraede 2, 9220 Aalborg East, Denmark. Tel. +45 99408404, Fax. +45 98153298 Email. jds@cgi.aau.dk http://personprofil.aau.dk/107471

New map of the world?

A Multi-polar worldUS unsustainable debt burden and political paralysis –

strategic decision-making held hostage to ideological polarization – Pentagon the biggest security threat: ”The crisis and budget deficit”

EU single currency threatened by sovereign debt and political discord – European integration project in dismay

Result:Relative decline of Western hegemony or a new Great

Depression and the resurgence of nationalism and protectionism! Or a new peaceful transition to a multi-polar world!

Strong Economy – Basis of Soft Power

It seems clear that the Chinese leadership attempts to increase its ability to attract and persuade the world community, regional groups and individual states to comply with its interests by utilizing among other foreign policy and security instruments – soft power

Components of Chinese Security Strategy

• Leverage Rhetoric on Cooperation/Noninterference• Pragmatic• Born-again multilateralist - relative• Focus on countries where US bilateral relationship is

faltering; outreach to developing nations• China as a model for developing nations

China’s Strategic Thought• Jiang Zemin

– Multi-polar world– Economic globalization– Globalist

– Hu Jintao– Peaceful Rise– Harmonius World– Economic Nationalism– Confucianism

Soft PowerSoft power is the ability to shape what others want

through attraction, not through coercion

Soft power arises from the attractiveness of a country's culture, political ideals, and policies and the mastery of institutions and information technologies to disseminate persuasive information is linked to soft power. Hard power remains crucial in a world of states trying to guard their independence and of non-state groups willing to turn to violence (Joseph Nye)

China’s Perception• Soft power requires the projection of an

attractive and friendly image:

– A champion for the developing world in international organizations

– A model for the developing world (Beijing consensus vs. Washington consensus)

– As a central actor in a multi-polar world

– As an ancient and vigorous civilization - Confucianism

How China’s Soft Power Strategy Emerges

-Domestic changes in China lead to pressure for a more proactive foreign policy

-Chinese leadership more engaged with the world-Failure of more aggressive mid-1990s policies-Impact of Asian financial crisis and beginning of

American soft power decline-China is using 'soft power' remedies and hard

cash to nurture 'alliances with developing countries to solidify its position in the World Trade Organization, flex its muscles on the world stage and act as a counterbalance to US power'

Means for the projection of China's soft power

Visits of Chinese authorities and international events– Very active agenda (Olympics etc)

State media– Service in six languages (Global media)

Active cultural and education diplomacy– Scholarships for studying in China– Confucius Institute (150 around the globe)– Target of raising number of foreigners studying Mandarin

around the world to 100 million (30 million people worldwide today)

Chinese Tools of Influence• More sophisticated development assistance• Better public diplomacy –media, informal summitry,

visitor programming, Chinese Peace Corps• More skilled formal diplomacy• Outreach to and use of ethnic Chinese• Promotion of Chinese language and culture studies• Promotion of China’s future potential for outward

investment• Leveraging FTAs• Outmigration• UN+ UNSC – Peace keeping• SCO and G20 ……. G2

Strong points of China's soft power

• Coherent rhetoric• Traditional culture: inventions, philosophy,

fine arts, martial arts• Language: 100 million students of

Mandarin in 2010• Chinese diaspora• Economic success

Weak points of China's soft power

• Authoritarian regime – high domestic legitimacy – low external legitimacy

• Corruption and human rights• Uncertainty about sustainability of economic and

social model• Loose business ethics: quality standards• Limited circulation of China's culture (music, arts

etc)• Notion about Confucian influence not clear

Impact and some conclusionsPositive: China becomes regional leader by mediating

disputesPositive: China takes lead on nontraditional transnational

issuesPositive: China prods regional free tradeNegative: China exporting its labor and environmental

practicesNegative: Chinese aid undermining tying of aid to better

governance, and US influence on authoritarian nations: Weakens US promotion of democratization and good governance

Negative: China could eventually use influence to push back at American relationships in SE Asia

Negative: Potential structures in the region exclude US• All in all a change in US policy towards China from a

friendly competitor to a strategic rival

China has shown a definite readiness to use its growing soft power, notably economic leverage and national image and the benefits that accrue from non-material, ideational and cultural influences as a persuasive means to translate its influence into concrete policy interests

Beijing's security concept can also be interpreted as aiming at undermining US influence and loosen its alliances

The figures imply that there is a clear strategic link between trade, FDI, ODA, military support and a specific focus on export of cultural values (FDI $220bn in 2010)

Soft power will also have important spill-over effects on future trade and investment patterns – striking cut-price deals – playing off states against each other and against their own collective interest