China:Threat or Opportunity or

Both

China, with Provinces

What We Know Already

1949: Communist victory; Nationalist defeat

PRC vs. ROC

1972: Nixon to China

1979: US-China normalization

What is Taiwan?China: A Province of China

US: A part of a united China, united in some undefined way and how that works is up to Taiwan and China as long as it is done peacefully

Taiwan: Taiwan is a part of China

Changes since 1970sTaiwan democracyLee Teng-hui Chen shui-bian Ma Ying-jeou1988-2000 2000-2008 2008--

Chinese Economic Reform• Deng Xiaoping

The Statistics

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/asia_pac/02/chinese_economic_history/html/1998.stm

Shanghai, China

The Dilemma• Economic reform: yes• Political reform: No

• But…

Economic Calls forReform Political reform

Tiananmen Square 1989

June 4, 1989

Bush 41 View

US

USSR PRC

US Congress ViewJackson-Vanik Amendment to Trade Act

of 1974 • “President determines” that a nonmarket economy nation

“denies” or “imposes more than a nominal tax” on those who emigrate or desire to emigrate, then the “products from any nonmarket economy country shall not be eligible to receive nondiscriminatory treatment (normal trade relations)…and the President of the United States shall not conclude any commercial agreement with any such country.”

Most Favored Nation status

Clinton ViewWhat is China?1. Worst human rights violator on

the planet2. Biggest of the BEM

1993: China given a deadline of June 1994 for human rights improvement

The Battle: 1993-94Public and Congressional debateBusiness lobbies ($$$)

vs.

Human Rights lobbies(pressure China)

vs.

Realists (stable relations)

Within Administration

National Economic Council,Dept. of Treasury andCommerce

vs.

State Dept, State Human RightsBureau

vs.

Dept. of Defense, NSC Staff,State Dept. East Asian Bureau

• Threat • Opportunity • Both

China’s Wealth

Mark Selden, Nation, Region and the Global in East Asia: Conflict and Cooperation, The Asia-Pacific Journal: Japan Focus, http://japanfocus.org/-Mark-Selden/3422

South China Sea: OIL

Ian Storey, Conflict in the South China Sea: China’s Relations with Vietnam and the Philippines, The Asia-Pacific Journal: Japan Focus, http://www.japanfocus.org/-ian-storey/2734

Source: The Economist: www.economist.com/node/17601487

From: Annual Report to CongressMilitary Power of the People’s Republic of China 2009

(http://www.defenselink.mil/pubs/pdfs/China_Military_Power_Report_2009.pdf. pp 24-5

The Future1. China as a regional rival2. China as a peer competitor

– A rival with a functioning economy3. China as an ideological rival

– Liberal-democracy vs. Soft Authoritarianism

4. Integrating China into the world and taming it– Responsible stakeholder

5. China anti-hegemony: “peaceful rise”

But…Economic InterdependenceChinese Trade (2010)From Chinese Ministry of Commerce 2009-2010, http://english.mofcom.gov.cn/aarticle/statistic/ie/200901/20090105999698.html

US Trade (2010)From US Census Bureau data; chart from http://www.globalization101.org/a-snapshot-of-us-trade/

Mutual Assured Bankruptcy?Who owns the Debt 2011? Federal Reserve information

1. US Federal Reserve and other Government Financial Entities2. Other Investors/Savings Bonds3. China4. Japan5. Pension Funds6. Money Market Funds/Mutual Funds7. State and Local Governments in US8. UK9. Banks10.Insurance Companies11.OPEC nations12.Brazil13.Caribbean nations14.Hong Kong15.Canada