CHINA MACRO OUTLOOK DRY BULK DIVERGENCE & CAPESIZE COMEBACK

CHINA MACRO OUTLOOKCHINA MACRO OUTLOOKDRY BULK DIVERGENCE & CAPESIZE COMEBACKDRY BULK DIVERGENCE & CAPESIZE COMEBACK

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-Chinese Steel Production-Emergence of China’s Middle Class-Geographical Development Trends

-Decline in Capesize Deliveries

-Increase in Panamax Deliveries

Major Topics

-Established March 2010

-Focus on Dry Bulk Market

-China National Shipping Service

-Dry Bulk Report Subscription

-Various Consulting Services

About Commodore

Chinese Steel Production

Chinese Steel Production (March 2009 - March 2013)

Chinese Steel Production

www.commodore-research.com

Geographical Development


Developed East

Emerging Central

Revitalized Northeast

Western Development

True Story

Geographical Development


Developed East

Emerging Central

Revitalized Northeast

Western Development

Chinese Iron Ore Production & Imports

Chinese Iron Ore Production (March 2009 - March 2013)

Chinese Iron Ore Production


Chinese Iron Ore Imports


Chinese Iron Ore Imports (April 2009 - April 2013)

Capesize Comeback


CAPE Deliveries Scrapping Net Addition

Jan’12 30 2 28

Feb’12 18 6 12

Mar’12 17 6 11

Apr’12 27 10 17

May’12 22 12 10

Jun’12 30 8 22

Jul’12 20 6 14

Aug’12 8 8 0

Sep’12 16 10 6

Oct’12 10 6 4

Nov’12 7 6 1

Dec’12 5 0 5

Average Daily Capesize Rates (February 2012 - May 2013)

Capesize Rates


Capesize Easing Has Begun

Year Handysize Handymax Panamax Capesize

2009 160 185 110 115

2010 228 292 172 214

2011 290 326 274 259

2012 289 303 370 210

2013 (p) 240 240 375 100

Deliveries (2009 – 2012); Commodore Projection (2013)


Outlook-Improvement in Capesize Rates in H2

-Decline in Panamax Rates in H2-Continued Growth of the Middle Class-Ongoing Development of Western China


-Robust Demand for Iron Ore Imports

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CHINA MACRO OUTLOOK DRY BULK DIVERGENCE & CAPESIZE COMEBACK