China and Climate Change: Challenges and Opportunities

China and Climate Change: Challenges and Opportunities

Trish McCubbinAssociate Professor

Southern Illinois University School of Law

April 21, 2023 Prof. Trish McCubbin 2

Research Institute for Environmental LawWuhan University School of Law

Wuhan, Hubei Province


Concerns About “Unilateral” Action by the

U.S.

China is now the #1 emitter of greenhouse gases (GHGs) by annual volume.

Some assume China is doing nothing to reign in its GHGs, just like 10 years ago during the Kyoto negotiations.


Roadmap for Future Negotiations with China

China’s New Political Will to Address GHGs

“Common but Differentiated” Commitments from

Developed and Developing Nations

Need for Improvements in the Rule of Law in China

The New Chinese Political Will to Address GHGs

Fourth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007)


International Pressures

2008 Olympics in Beijing

The New Chinese Political Will to Address GHGs (Continued)

New study by Chinese government of domestic climate change impacts (June 2007)

- Loss of agricultural production - Melting of Tibetan plateau - Destruction of habitat for giant panda - Flooding of coastal areas from sea level rise


Domestic Pressures

The New Chinese Political Will to Address GHGs (Continued)


China’s Severe Domestic Environmental Degradation

16 out of 20 of the world’s most polluted cities are in China.

Only 1% of cities meets modern air quality standards.

World Bank estimate: 750,000 premature deaths each year from air pollution

“[L]iving in China’s most polluted cities is a pulmonary disaster equivalent to smoking two packs of cigarettes a day.”

—State Environmental Protection Administration Official


Government’s Strong Desire to Address Domestic Environmental

Conditions

Growing citizen protests

- est. 50,000 annually

Government concern about social

instability


Government’s Strong Desire to Address Domestic Environmental

Conditions

Government’s own Green GDP calculation in 2006:

3% annual loss

World Bank’s estimate:

8% annual loss


China’s Domestic Commitments on GHGs So Far

11th Five-Year Plan (2006)

National Climate Change Programme (June 2007)

National Energy Plan (December 2007)


China’s Domestic Commitments on GHGs So Far (Continued)

Commitments

- Improved energy efficiency (target: 4% reduction each year) - Greater fuel efficiency standards for vehicles - More reliance on non-carbon fuels - Use of carbon capture and sequestration at coal-fired power plants


Merely Paper Commitments?

2006 goal of reducing energy usage not met – only reduced by 1.23%, not 4%

Similar goal for 2007 also missed – reduced only by 3.27%

2008 – 4% goal supposedly met


Important Signals of Cooperation from Chinese Central Government

President Hu Jintao:

China can no longer afford the “excessively high price” to the environment caused by the nation’s rapid economic growth. (Oct. 2007)

Chinese Diplomat at Bali negotiations:

China “will follow if the European Union and the United States lead” in international efforts to address GHGs. (Dec. 2007)

Key Differences BetweenChina and U.S.


Population: China—1.3 Billion America—0.3 Billion

U.S. per capita GHG emissions are 4 to 5 times China’s.

“Pollution by Proxy” – Carnegie and Tyndall Studies


Poverty and China’s Status as a Truly Developing Country

World Bank estimates 300 million Chinese live below poverty level.

100s of millions live above the poverty line but are still unable to afford basics like education or healthcare.


U.S. and International Recognition of “Common but Differentiated

Responsibilities” of All Nations

Agreements

U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992) APEC Summit Statement (September 2007)

Bali Action Plan (December 2007)


“Common But Differentiated” Responsibilities in Practice

For U.S. and other developed nations:

Annual cap on GHG emissions set substantially below current levels

For China and other developing nations:

Growth of GHGs, but with measures to slow the growth

and (ideally) peak in 2020 or 2025

Bali Plan: “Measurable, verifiable and reportable”


The Need for Improvements in the Rule of Law

Structural Problems with Environmental Legal Regime

Low penalties Enforcement by provincial officials with conflicts of interest

Limited role for citizens


The Need for Improvements in the Rule of Law (Continued)

Broader Challenges to the Rule of Law Generally

Judiciary subject to political pressure

Corruption found within judiciary

Challenge of modernizing judicial system

Documents

China and Climate Change: Challenges and Opportunities