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Child Poverty Needs Assessment

1. Background The 2002 Labour Government pledged to halve child poverty by 2010 and to eradicate child poverty by 2020. In 2006 the Conservative Party announced that they shared this vision and the Coalition Government of 2010 has also retained this pledge. As the principal measure of child poverty is a relative one, this was always an ambitious target – the 2020 target taken in the context of the measure used would require all children not to be living in households below 60% of the median household income. Perhaps unsurprisingly therefore, findings from a 2006 study indicate that if progress continued at the then current rate, these targets will not be met (Informing Change, Joseph Rowntree Foundation, 2006). Indeed by 2008/9 13½ million people in the UK were living in poverty - 1½ million more than the low point achieved in 2004/05. While this needs assessment focuses on child poverty, it is important to recognise that this is family poverty experienced by children. Child poverty can never be separated from adult poverty. Over recent decades, as society has become more likely to attribute continuing adult poverty to personal shortcomings, rather that chance or social factors, child poverty become first a covert way of discussing poverty, as no-one could argue that it was a child’s fault that they lived in poverty. More recently child poverty has become a tool of political rhetoric and piety – everyone recognises its importance; no-one is willing to slide backwards on their commitment to eradicate it; yet little progress has been made, particularly over the latter part of the past decade. In March 2010 the Child Poverty Act received Royal Assent. This Act places four key duties on local authorities, namely:

1. to make arrangements to promote co-operation between the authority and it’s partners to reduce, and mitigate the impacts of, poverty in the local area.

2. to produce a local child poverty needs assessment 3. to produce a joint child poverty strategy for the local area 4. to ensure the Sustainable Community Strategy has regard to this priority

This document seeks to address item 2 in the list above. 1.1 Measuring Child Poverty Blackburn with Darwen is one of the 10% most deprived councils in England and recognise that poverty underpins many of the problems affecting our families and young people. The indicator that has been used up until now to measure children in poverty (NI 116) has been included in the Blackburn with Darwen Sustainable Community Strategy (Update 2008) in recognition of this fact. This indicator is currently the only national indicator to measure the number of children living in poverty. What the indicator actually measures is the number of children living in a household where the household income is below of 60% of median equivalised household

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income. In real terms, this equates to those households on less than £202 per week for a single adult living with two dependent children under the age of 14, or £288 per week for a couple living with two dependent children under 14. This is after income tax, council tax and housing costs have been deducted. One of the changes introduced by the Coalition Government is that the National Indicator Set will cease with effect from April 2011, which poses questions as to how progress in meeting the objective of eradication of child poverty by 2020 will be measured either locally or nationally. One of the areas of interest for the Coalition government has been a reconsideration of how poverty (and child poverty) is measured, although it remains to be seen what if any concrete changes are made over coming years.

2. Introduction to the Needs Assessment The Child Poverty Needs Assessment cannot and does not sit apart from the other needs assessments and evaluations completed by the local authority in recent times and it forms one part of a wide portfolio of needs assessments sitting under the overarching Integrated Strategic Needs Assessment. In particular, it is indebted to and seeks to build upon the annual children and young people’s needs assessment that informs the children and young people’s plan, but also to the Local Economic Assessment and the Public Health Annual Review. For those familiar with these documents, there will necessarily be some repetition as the relevant facts remain the same. In addition, this document will focus more acutely on two particular issues – a detailed analysis benefit claiming for both in work and out of work benefits; and the analysis of patterns of poverty and its associated characteristics in sub-areas of the borough – something that the other needs assessments have not previously explored in detail. Finally, for a local authority such as Blackburn with Darwen with such ingrained multi-generational and widespread poverty, there is a deep sense that every assessment, plan, review and strategy since its inception as a unitary authority has addressed either explicitly or implicitly the issue of poverty and how to address its causes and remedy its effects. Neither the issue, nor the desire and need to address it are new, even if the national focus and requirements is. It is perhaps unfortunate that the focus on the issue arrives at precisely the moment when nationally and locally we are least able to address it. In describing the nature of poverty within Blackburn with Darwen, the Needs Assessment will provide context, before moving on to discuss patterns in the claiming of benefits over time and geographically (providing the most accurate depiction of the nature and extent of poverty locally). The Needs Assessment will then touch on one of the greatest challenges facing the borough, in terms of addressing the effects of poverty – its housing. Since poverty is measured by the number of low income families, the needs assessment moves on to discuss the structure and nature of the local economy and the skill levels of the population. Finally, the assessment returns to the issue of the life chances of its children and young people, before summarising the major issues arising from the assessment.

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3. Local Context Blackburn with Darwen has a population of approximately 140,000. A comparatively high proportion (just over 40,000, 30.3%) is aged 0–19. This is the highest percentage of any local authority in England and Wales (2008 mid year population estimates). Blackburn consists of two major local communities from divergent backgrounds – one predominantly White/UK working class community, one Asian heritage community of overwhelming Islamic faith, and split between those of Indian and Pakistani heritage. About one quarter of the population comprises members of minority ethnic communities. Almost a fifth of the population are Muslim, the third largest such proportion in England and the proportion of our children and young people from BME communities stands at 40% Blackburn is still largely characterised by homogeneous areas, with relatively few areas that could be characterised as ethnically mixed. Darwen is still mainly White/UK heritage, as is the South of Blackburn, heading out towards Lower Darwen. Growing affluence in the Asian community has seen a growth in the numbers of families living further north and West from the traditional Asian population centres of Audley, Bastwell, Brookhouse and Shear Brow. Blackburn with Darwen is amongst the 10% most deprived councils in England; nearly a quarter of children in our primary schools are living in areas amongst the 5% most deprived nationally; and two thirds live in areas amongst the 25% most deprived. Over 60% of local children and young people live in the most deprived 20% of areas nationally. Areas of acute deprivation in Blackburn can broadly be divided between those that are of predominantly White/UK heritage – Shadsworth, Intack, Higher Croft, Mill Hill – and those that are predominantly of Asian heritage– Audley, Bastwell. In relatively few areas of the town is there a mix of these two broad ethnic groups – with the area heading down towards Bank Top from Preston New Road being the nearest to such a mix (the area is within Wensley Fold ward), but even there it is more a steady transition between mainly Asian families to mainly White UK families as one moves down the hill towards Preston Old Road. Darwen has pockets of deprivation, largely focused around Sudell ward, but, statistically, they are less deprived than Blackburn’s areas of deprivation. The Index of Multiple Deprivation 2007 update provided two key messages.

Firstly, Blackburn with Darwen had become relatively more deprived since 2004;

Secondly, that this decline was a general East (Pennine) Lancashire issue. The relative increase in deprivation was driven by the following factors.

More of the population within the borough is living in areas classified as amongst the most deprived nationally;

Relatively speaking those areas also becoming more deprived.

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In spite of slight improvement in the number of residents experiencing employment deprivation (i.e. the number of residents unemployed against their wishes), income deprivation has worsened.

Geographically, two clear trends emerge from analysis – firstly, the deprived White/UK heritage areas are becoming more deprived still and so are the deprived Asian heritage areas; and secondly, areas in Blackburn that are experiencing growth in their Asian heritage population having previously been mainly White/UK (principally areas in North Blackburn) have become more deprived on the IMD 2007 index than was previously the case in 2004. This may be a function of the indicators being used as part of the index, some of which may have a tendency to reflect the characteristic patterns of living of some ethnic groups more than others. Whatever the intricacies of the pattern within the borough, the overwhelming message from the 2007 IMD was that Pennine Lancashire clearly exhibited common trends and patterns. From this fact it would be fair to conclude both that the local authorities and local services across the sub-region faced similar problems and that there was clear merit in working together to address them, which increased the importance of strategic work of PLACE (Pennine Lancashire local authorities, public service, third sector and private sector partners). The 2007 IMD highlighted the impact of the Pennine Lancashire’s over reliance on a declining manufacturing base with limited high value service sector employment. The sub-area is characterised by high levels of benefit dependency, concentrations of worklessness, and underperformance on higher-level skills particularly among younger age groups. Wage levels lag well behind both regional and national levels, with a productivity gap of over a £1 billion with the rest of the North West. The population is growing but at a much slower rate than our neighbours, and the area has experienced a net outflow of people, suggesting low-level job opportunities and a “quality of place” that can neither attract new people nor retain the existing population. To a substantial extent, the Pennine Lancashire economy has been sustained and protected through growth in public sector employment and inward investment from targeted central government spending programmes designed to address the route causes of poverty, such as Housing Market Renewal.

4. Why children living in poverty matters As the 17th most deprived Borough nationally, poverty has always been a key issue for Blackburn with Darwen. Over the past year hardly a month has passed without a major report or review of inequality or poverty – all making very similar points. If one could summarise the findings in four sentences:

the country has become more unequal over the past 20 years, with the gap between the very rich and the very poor much wider; and the gap between the average family and the very rich also much wider.

The comparative advantage of the better off has become more entrenched and social mobility has decreased – it is now less likely for a child born to a poor household to achieve prominence in well rewarded and esteemed professions, such as medicine or law, than it was 50 years ago.

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Some ethnic and social groups; types of family grouping; and geographical areas are more likely to be amongst those disadvantaged by these long term trends.

To improve the long-term life chances of children, the root causes and associated issues or deprivation and poverty need to be addressed

Research tells us that children living in poverty have poorer outcomes; in relation to educational attainment, employment and health. This is corroborated in Professor Sir Michael Marmot’s review of health inequalities, which clearly shows that deprivation is instrumental in reducing a person’s health outcomes. A study looking into early cognitive development found that ‘bright’ children from families with a lower socio-economic position are overtaken by those with a low cognitive score from a family with a high socio-economic position. Families living in poverty also impacts on costs later in life, both from the “cost of remedial services and also the foregone taxes and benefits resulting from the reduced future employment and earning prospects of those who grow up poor” (Informing Change, Joseph Rowntree Foundation, 2006). In summary, poverty and child poverty matters as unless it is addressed it effectively predestines the vast majority of children who grow up in poverty to replicate the lives of their parents. This engenders a hopelessness that is not only personally destructive and shameful in a developed society, but also can result in the creation of a substantial part of the population that has no investment in the success of the society or the country and therefore no reason to respect its social or legal norms.

5. What does poverty look like locally?

5.1 Introduction The best way to arrive at an initial understanding of the nature of local child poverty is to return to the national measure of its prevalence – NI 116. In August 2008, 29.5% (11,515) of children (dependent children under the age of twenty) in Blackburn with Darwen could be described as living in poverty according to the NI 116 indicator. This is the fourth highest level of child poverty in the North West and approximately 14th nationally (excluding London – if including London we rank 30th). The areas with the highest proportions of children living in poverty closely mirror the most deprived parts of the borough. Whilst high proportions of children living in poverty are identified in the areas known as being deprived, there appeared to be only one small area in 2008 that did not have any children falling into the classification. Even though numbers are low in the more rural areas of the borough, there are still people living in poverty in these areas. When mapped to small areas, the areas with the highest proportions of children living in poverty are the most deprived in the borough (Map 1). These included Wensley Fold area and north Mill Hill, Shadsworth and Intack areas, central Blackburn encompassing areas of Audley, Shear Brow, Bastwell and Queens’ Park. There were also pockets with high levels of children living in poverty in Meadowhead, Higher Croft and Sudell.

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Lone Parenthood Nationally, a greater percentage of children living in poverty live in lone parent households (31.8% couple households, 68.2% lone parent). In Blackburn with Darwen however, around half the children living in poverty are in couple households (48.5% couple households, 51.5% lone parent households). As can be seen from the chart below, whilst many other local authorities in Lancashire follow the national trend of poverty being associated with lone parent households, there are notable exceptions. In both Blackburn with Darwen and Pendle around half the children living in poverty are in couple households. Percentage of children in poverty living in couple and lone parent families, Lancashire district and unitary authorities

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Of all the children in couple families living in poverty in Blackburn with Darwen, 42% are in couple families receiving Working Tax Credit and Child Tax Credit, and have incomes less than the 60% median (compared to 28.8% in England as a whole). The prevalence of both poverty in couple families and the prevalence of couple families with income less than 60% of the median is a reflection of other economic facts about the borough: the low wage economy, low skill-base and the higher proportion of one earner households, with one parent choosing to stay at home to look after the family.

5.2 Financial Support Out of work benefits Data in February 2010 highlights that for residents of the borough aged 16 to 64, 19.1% are claiming ‘out of work’ benefits. (Out of work benefit claimants includes the following groups:

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job seekers, Employment and Support Allowance and incapacity benefits, lone parents, others on income related benefits) This is higher than both regional (15.7% North West) and national (12.7% England and Wales) figures. For some benefit types, additional money is payable to families with dependant children. Because of this limited information is available on the numbers of children within these households. As not all benefits need information about children to process the claim the data will not provide a complete picture. Within Blackburn with Darwen 4.8% of the population aged 16 to 64 are claiming an out of work benefit and are known to have children, greater than the North West (3.6%) and England and Wales figures (3.2%). This equates to around a quarter of out of work benefit claimants having a responsibility for children. Over the last ten years the proportion of out of work benefit claimants in the borough who have a responsibility for children has decreased. In 2001, 31% of out of work benefit claimants had a responsibility for one or more children, in 2010 this had reduced to 25%. The proportion of claimants where it was ‘unknown’ as to whether they had children or not has stayed relatively stable, with the proportion claiming with no dependant children has grown. Out of work benefit claimants, with dependant children, no dependant children and unknown, as a percentage of all claimants

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Over this time period there has also been a decrease in the number of residents claiming out of work benefits, who have a responsibility for children. This has fallen from 4,940 in February 2001 down to 4,190 claimants in February 2010. Child Tax Credit Child Tax Credit data presents a breakdown by families who are receiving the family element or below and those in receipt of more than the family element. Families receiving more than the family element are entitled to other help, such as Sure Start Maternity Grants. Families may receive more than the family element if they have disabled or severely disabled children, if they have more than one child, a baby or a young person in the household. Generally,

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unless the family has a disabled child or a baby, families with an annual income of £35,000 or more will only receive the basic family element or below this. Families with incomes of £66,000 or more are above the threshold for receiving Child Tax Credit. The finalised data, which provides information on the average claim over a financial year, presents some statistics on in-work families. For the most recent period, 2008/09, data is provided for the number of families with children who are receiving:

Working tax credit and Child Tax Credit,

Child Tax Credit – more than the family element; and

Child Tax Credit family element or less. These three categories almost form a rising set of steps upwards from the poorest working poor and provide a way of looking at trends over time and a good guide to the geographical distribution of relative poverty across the borough as a whole. From 2004/05 to 2008/09, the number of families claiming both Child Tax Credit and working tax credit (those on the lowest incomes / with more than one or disabled children) has increased. Conversely, the number receiving the family element or less (those in the highest income brackets / with only one child) has decreased over the same time period. Number of ‘in work’ families receiving the different levels of Child and Working Tax Credits

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Number of children in ‘in work’ families receiving the different levels of Child and Working Tax Credits

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Focusing at the small area level, as would be expected the families receiving the different levels of support tend to be located in different geographical areas of the borough. Working families claiming both working tax credit and Child Tax Credit are clustered around the most deprived areas of central Blackburn, with higher numbers in areas of Bastwell, Shear Brow, Audley/Queen’s Park, Corporation Park, Mill Hill and Whitebirk/Little Harwood (Map 5). Map 5

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Working families claiming Child Tax Credit – more than the family element are concentrated in a circle widening out from the centre of Blackburn into slightly less deprived parts of the borough (Map 6) Map 6

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families receiving only the family element or below of Child Tax Credit (often families on higher incomes) these are concentrated around the Fernhurst, Higher Croft, Feniscowles, Marsh House and East Rural areas of the borough (Map 7). Map 7

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The Current Picture More timely data, although slightly less detailed, is available through the Working Tax Credit and Child Tax Credit provisional data that is taken as a snapshot in April and December. This data is subject to subsequent revision. The number of children living in out of work families receiving child tax credit has stayed relatively constant over the last four years, in April 2010, 9,200 children were living in such families. The number living in families receiving more than the family element has increased from 17,700 in 2004 to 20,900 in 2010. Whilst the number living in families receiving the family element or less has decreased from 6,200 in 2004 to 4,500 in 2010. The number of families receiving Child Tax Credit and Working Tax Credit at or below the family element (the basic or less than the basic amount) has seen a decrease, whilst those claiming Child Tax Credit and Working Tax Credit above the family element has increased. Of all the families receiving Child Tax Credit and Working Tax Credit (including families without children and out of work families) the proportion receiving Child Tax Credit and Working Tax Credit above the family element has increased from 47.6% in 2007 to 51.5% in 2010. Number families with children receiving the different levels of Child and Working Tax Credits

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April 2004 April 2005 April 2006 April 2007 April 2008 April 2009 April 2010

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Data is available on the number of families without children receiving working tax credit for the last four years. During this time the number has increased from 1,400 to 2,100, or as a proportion of all families claiming from 7.5% to 10.6%. This information is also presented as the number of children living in families receiving Child Tax Credit and/or Working Tax Credit. As with families, the number living in out of work families receiving Child Tax Credit has stayed relatively constant over the last four years, in April 2010, 9,200 children were living in such families. The number living in families receiving more than the family element has increased from 17,700 in 2004 to 20,900 in 2010. Conversely the number living in families receiving the family element or less has decreased from 6,200 in 2004 to 4,500.

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This would suggest that the number of families, and children living in families on lower incomes or with larger families in the borough is has grown between 2004 and 2010. If this trend were to continue, the number of ‘in work’ families on lower incomes looks set to increase.; as it may be fair to speculate about a similar shift from those on ‘in work’ benefits to ‘out of work’ benefits. The data also allows analysis on the children living in lone parent families. In the current economic climate lone parent families in employment may be in a vulnerable position financially if their employment is lost. As a percentage of all children in Child Tax Credit families, higher proportions (from 22% to 35%) of children can be found in some of the less deprived areas of the borough. These areas include Marsh House, parts of Fernhurst, Ewood, Feniscliffe and parts of Livesey with Pleasington. (Map 8) Whilst not necessarily indicating that these families are currently living in poverty, such families may be vulnerable to falling into poverty if employment is lost. In addition to the vulnerability of lone parent households, couple families with only one parent in work may also be at risk if income from the one earner was to be lost. Unfortunately, Child Tax Credit data does not differentiate between one earner couple households or couple households with two earners, so we cannot look into any further depth the characteristics of earners in couple households.

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Map 8

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Housing and Council Tax Benefit Housing and council tax data records the number of ‘dependant children’ at a claimant’s household in order to process the benefit claim. Child dependants are people for whom child benefit is being claimed, this can include young people up to the age of 20 who are in fulltime education. The housing and council tax benefit data taken as a snapshot in April 2010 highlights the distinct profiles of the different housing tenures with regards dependant children. 51% of housing and council tax claimants living in private rented accommodation did not have children, this compares to 71% in housing associations and 74% who were owner occupied. In total there were 12,826 dependant children in the borough who were living in households where housing or council tax benefit was being claimed – representing over a quarter of all children and young people in the borough. Around 30% of these children live in private rented accommodation, 30% in owner occupied properties and 40% in Housing Association properties. Housing Against national trends of improving housing conditions, in Blackburn with Darwen a substantial proportion of the housing stock was built pre-1919, and almost half the local population still lives in a terraced property, compared to just over a quarter of the population nationally. 46% of properties in the Borough (approximately 27,300), are judged to be ‘non-decent’: substantially higher than the national average of 37% for equivalent tenures. This level of non-decency is largely due to failure against the Decent Homes energy efficiency standard or the presence of a Category 1 hazard, the primary hazard failures being excess cold and falls. The table below shows that Category 1 hazards are proportionately more common in the privately rented sector. The Marmot review highlights poor quality private rented housing as a major issue.

26.1%

20.7%22.8%

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Owner occupied Privately rented Housing

Association (RSL)

Overall

Tenure

Cat 1 Hazard

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Across the Borough, the cost to rectify the identified Category 1 hazards is an estimated £76.3m or an average of £6,200 per dwelling. However, the cost of comprehensive repair, where no new work would be required in the next 10 years, would be £303.5m or an average of £24,600 per dwelling. While these sums appear large, the Housing Health and Safety Rating System makes it possible to estimate the potential cost of poor housing to the NHS, the wider public sector and society. A large pilot study in the North West compared these costs with the cost of work to improve poor housing and demonstrated that some interventions are particularly cost-effective. Around 19,000 (or 31.9%) dwellings fail the Decent Homes energy efficiency standard (42.5% in pre-1919 properties), compared to the national average of 16.7%. By tenure, privately rented properties have the highest failure rate (40.7%), then owner occupied properties (31.3%) and RSL stock (28.1%). Living in fuel poverty refers to households needing to spend more than 10% of their income on fuel to sustain satisfactory heating. Prolonged exposure to low temperatures, such as those experienced by people unable to sufficiently heat their houses, increases blood pressure and blood clotting, which in turn increase cardiovascular risk. It is estimated that in the UK between 4,000-20,000 cardiovascular deaths each year are related to the cold. Given the high proportion of low income households living in poor quality housing, this may contribute significantly to local inequalities in cardiovascular health. There are an estimated 7,700 (12.9%) households in fuel poverty in Blackburn with Darwen compared to the national average of 11.5%. The cost to remedy the estimated 4,800 owner occupied dwellings in fuel poverty is £13.2 million. Not only do dwellings where fuel poverty exists represent those with poor energy efficiency, they are also, by definition, occupied by residents with low incomes and least likely to be able to afford improvements. Summary Analysis of out of work and in work benefits, together with housing benefit (and housing) information indicates the following:

Greater prevalence of low income families within the borough

A shift to more families in receipt of lower income combinations of benefits

The prevalence of families already in receipt of ;in-work’ benefits suggests a considerable vulnerability to further economic shocks or downturns

A relatively great dependence on the benefit system; and therefore

Greater vulnerability to intended and unintended consequences deriving from changes in the rules and administration of the benefits system.

Substantial numbers of families experiencing the effects of poverty, in terms of living in poor quality housing and its associated health risks

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In addition to the self evident fact that there are a relatively large number of families living in poverty in the borough, there are also a high number of families in the borough with relatively little cushioning in their circumstances to protect them from shocks cascading them and their children into poverty.

5.3 Employment and Skills Nationally we know that workless households are significantly more likely to experience poverty than households in which at least one adult is in work and children growing up in workless households are more likely to be workless or poor themselves as adults. We also know that unemployment rates vary significantly between ethnic minorities. For example, the highest unemployment rate is among Pakistanis (19.0%). More widely, in the last year unemployment has increased, with redundancies in manufacturing and retail, house prices have fallen and there remains a gap with the rest of the North West, and the number of businesses reduced for the first time for almost ten years. Forecasts indicate that there will be little economic growth for the next 5-7 years and almost no growth in employment. These factors added to increased competition for economic investment and potential direct competition for investment from the Greater Manchester City Region and the Central Lancashire growth node. Increasing globalisation will intensify competitive pressures and may result in a speeding up of economic restructuring. Climate change and competition for raw materials may increasingly shape the form and nature of future building and development patterns. The borough’s competitive advantage attracts businesses that offer low wages, a situation that poses challenges for the future in continuing to attract new employers, whilst raising the wages that are currently leading to deprivation. The mass of analysis completed as part of the Local Economic Assessment demonstrated the following:

The similarity in patterns of performance across the more deprived East Lancashire local authority footprints.

Low skills base, with large numbers of adults with no qualifications

Falling levels of employment – now 10% beneath the national average compared with 4% in 2005.

Lower levels of economic activity, lower levels of full time working, lower levels of self-employment

Very low gross disposable income (131st out of 133 areas nationally)

Relatively great dependence on public sector employment (30% of all jobs)

Greater dependence on a declining manufacturing sector than is the case nationally,

Relatively low long-term business survival rates. Net registration of businesses is also low, with high rates of start up being mirrored by high numbers folding.

Schools

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Given the intrinsic relationship between long-term life chances and the educational outcomes achieved by a child, the performance of Blackburn with Darwen’s schools and the trend in their relative performance is of particular interest. As an authority, Blackburn with Darwen performs above the England and North West average for 2009 in GCSE achievement. The trend in GCSE attainment levels in Blackburn with Darwen have been positive, increasing from 46.8% in 2005 to 72.6% in 2009. In the new GCSE measure of 5 or more GCSEs, including English and Maths, the improvement is similarly strong – up from 35% to 52% in the past 5 years, compared with a national rise of 12% (to 54%) Other authorities within the Pennine Lancashire area have also seen increases in the percentage of pupils achieving 5+A*-C although the rate of increase has varied, Burnley and the Ribble Valley district have seen modest increases, Burnley by +6% points and Ribble Valley by 7% points, from 71% to 78%, although it must be noted that attainment levels in this district was already high. Three of the Pennine Lancashire areas perform higher than the average for the North West and England. Therefore, all indications of educational progress show improvement in Blackburn with Darwen greater than the national average (thereby closing the gap to the national average); and greater than in other areas of Pennine Lancashire. Yet, this transformation in educational outcomes has not been reflected in a wider improvement in economic performance of the borough. The relatively static position of the borough in terms of its economy reflects wider problems – not least the generally low skills base of the adults (and parents) living within the borough Adult Skills The skills profile of the local population is relevant because the educational attainment of parents is a good predictor of the likely achievement of children. However, even more importantly, the skills of local workforce have a strong and symbiotic relationship with the job opportunities likely to be available within the borough – as companies offering ‘high-skill, high reward’ jobs, tend to be based in areas with a reservoir of local residents with relevant skills. It is not a coincidence that ‘silicon valley’ in the USA is located in Northern California and derived a lot of its impetus from Stanford University, or that its English equivalent is close to Cambridge. Therefore, whilst education is significant to long term skills supply, the more immediate issue is the skills and qualification levels in the current workforce. Different types of qualifications are grouped into levels of NVQ (National Vocational Qualification). There are four levels of qualifications, as shown in table below. Data for qualifications comes from the Annual Population Survey (APS), which also includes data for those with no qualifications and other qualifications.

Summary of Qualifications in Blackburn with Darwen and Pennine Lancashire districts

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Level 4 (%) (%) Level 3 (%) Level 2 No qualifications (%)

Blackburn with Darwen 22.6 42.0 60.9 18.7

Burnley 23.2 39.4 57.3 25.7

Hyndburn 18.9 38.5 60.1 19.1

Pendle 20.6 43.2 59.9 25.7

Ribble Valley 39.7 62.6 80.7 5.8

Rossendale 26.0 45.2 67.1 20.3

North West 27.4 47.1 68.1 14.7

England 30.5 49.5 69.4 12.3

Source:

As can be clearly seen, although Blackburn with Darwen does better than its similarly deprived Pennine Lancashire peers (Burnley, Pendle, Hyndburn, Rossendale), in terms of the proportion of the local population with no qualifications, there is still a big gap to the regional or national average; and larger gaps still in terms of the percentage of the local population with the highest levels of skills (level 4).

As can be seen from the further table below, there has been improvement over time, however this has largely seen the borough only keep pace with national and regional trends and has not addressed the wider issue around the number of adults with no qualifications, where the gap is actually widening with the national average.

Qualification levels of the working age population 2001 to 2008

Level 4 or higher Level 3 or higher Level 2 or higher

2001 2008 Diff 2001 2008 Diff 2001 2008 Diff

% % p.p % % p.p % % p.p

Blackburn with Darwen

17.4 22.6 5.2 35.5 42.0 6.5 57.7 60.9 3.2

Burnley 13.2 23.2 10.0 29.5 39.4 9.9 53.9 57.3 3.4

Hyndburn 17.8 18.9 1.1 35.3 38.5 3.2 58.7 60.1 1.4

Pendle 14.8 20.6 5.8 31.6 43.2 11.6 51.7 59.9 8.2

Ribble Valley 33.5 39.7 6.2 54.3 62.6 8.3 77.5 80.7 3.2

Rossendale 21.6 26.0 4.4 40.9 45.2 4.3 61.6 67.1 5.5

North West 22.5 27.4 4.9 41.9 47.1 5.2 62.3 68.1 5.8

England 25.0 30.5 5.5 43.6 49.5 5.9 63.9 69.4 5.5

Note: Diff is the differences between 2001 and 2008 measured in percentage points (p.p)

Source: Derived by the Department for Business, Innovation & Skills (BIS) from the Annual Population Survey, Office for National Statistics (ONS)

Employment

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The employment rate is a key indicator for tracking how the economy is performing. The employment rate gives the percentage of working age population (females 16-59 years and males 16-64 years) in employment (full-time, part time and self-employed) in any one year. The data is obtained from the Annual Population Survey with the financial year 04-05 being the first year of data. The table below shows the employment rate of Pennine Lancashire districts. Blackburn with Darwen, in general, has a low employment rate, 64% for Jan-Dec 2009, compared to the North West (70%) and nationally (73%). All Pennine Lancashire districts have a higher employment rate than Blackburn with Darwen.

Employment rate for working age population

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 % point difference

Blackburn with Darwen

68.7 66.7 67.5 67.8 63.5 -5.2

Burnley 70.9 71.8 66.2 65.8 65.7 -5.2

Hyndburn 69.4 71.0 65.7 64.7 71.3 1.9

Pendle 70.7 70.9 68.4 67.7 71.0 0.3

Ribble Valley 82.8 84.0 86.6 83.1 77.7 -5.1

Rossendale 76.8 76.2 66.5 68.8 66.1 -10.7

Pennine Lancashire

72.0 72.0 69.1 68.8 68.3 -3.7

North West 72.8 72.5 72.0 72.1 70.3 -2.5

England 74.7 74.2 74.4 74.5 73.0 -1.7

Source:

Over the years four Pennine Lancashire districts have experienced a decrease in employment rates, the largest being a -10.7% point decrease in the employment rate in Rossendale. Blackburn with Darwen, Burnley and the Ribble valley have all experienced approximately a 5% point decrease in employment rates over the same period. Self Employment Within the Pennine Lancashire area, rates of self employment vary considerably, Ribble valley has the highest percentage of its population who are self employed 17.1% and Blackburn with Darwen has the lowest at 11.6%. Between 2005 and 2009 five of the six Pennine Lancashire districts saw self employment rates increase (percentage point) by greater amounts than regional and national rates. Blackburn with Darwen being the exception, self-employment rates in the borough increased by 0.2% points,

Trend in self employment

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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 % point difference

Blackburn with Darwen

11.4 9.7 11.6 10.5 11.6 +0.2

Burnley 10.5 7.8 7.5 9.1 17.1 +6.6

Hyndburn 10.5 10.0 8.7 15.2 18.0 +7.5

Pendle 10.2 8.7 9.9 13.9 17.6 +7.4

Ribble Valley 14.7 19.6 15.9 14.2 19.4 +4.7

Rossendale 17.0 13.9 8.5 6.2 14.9 -2.1

Pennine Lancashire

North West 11.2 11.3 11.3 11.4 11.7 +0.5

England 12.9 13.1 13.2 13.4 13.0 +0.7

Source: Annual population survey, Nomis, (ONS Crown copyright)

Public Sector Employment The Pennine Lancashire sub-region has a high proportion of employment in the public sector, in 2008 this sector accounted for 28.4% of all employment. While public administration has decreased by -25.6% over the 10 years, education and health have increased by 44.1% and 24.3% respectively. In 2008 56,943 persons were employed in this sector compared to 47,812 in 1998, an increase of 19.1% Within Blackburn with Darwen Public sector employment is 30.1%, as a proportion of all Public sector jobs in the Pennine Lancashire sub-region Blackburn with Darwen’s share is 44.2%. In many towns within the Pennine Lancashire sub-region, the public sector is a major employer, this employment has in some cases propped up the local economy when private sector has been in decline.

Employment, Skills and the Local Economy - summary There is clear evidence of more young people leaving school with the qualifications and skills required to make good progress in the modern world. The substantial gaps to the national average that did exist a decade ago, have narrowed considerably. However, the young people leaving college and school still join an adult workforce which is resolutely weighted towards the unqualified and low-skilled. This skill base is reflected in the relatively low level of employment locally and in the type of work available. As a result it is probably not surprising that wages in Blackburn with Darwen do not compare favourably with the Northwest and the median wage for Great Britain. The median weekly wage for residents in Blackburn with Darwen working full time for 2008 is £429.3 compared to £460.2 in the Northwest and £496 in England. The Local Economic Assessment makes it clear that progress has been made over the past decade in Blackburn with Darwen, especially relative to similarly deprived Pennine Lancashire districts, but that this progress has, at best, allowed the borough to maintain the gap to the

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national and regional averages. Blackburn with Darwen’s competitive position nationally has not improved substantially through this period. Indeed there is some evidence to suggest that it may have worsened. To some extent the clarity of this picture has been masked by the growth in public sector employment within the borough (and across the sub-region) through the period of time. The recent economic downturn followed by the dramatic squeeze on public expenditure designed by the national government clearly poses a grave threat to the borough and the region and raises the clear prospect both of the more mobile, highly skilled public sector workers leaving the area and of more families declining into poverty, with the subsequent pressure on public services that this will create.

4.3 Life Chances Birth to School Giving every child the best start in life is crucial to reducing health inequalities across the life course. The foundations for virtually every aspect of human development – physical, intellectual and emotional – are laid in early childhood. What happens during these early years has lifelong effects on many aspects of health and wellbeing – from obesity, heart disease and mental health, to educational achievement and economic status. To have an impact on poverty we need to address children’s access to positive early experiences. Later interventions, although important, are considerably less effective where good early foundations are lacking. The Marmot Review notes the overwhelming evidence of a strong link between socio-economic status and a child’s early development. Moreover, pre-school development is strongly predictive of outcomes at the end of Primary school. Children with a high level of cognitive ability at age 2 years are very likely to continue to develop strongly during their time in Primary school. Children who score poorly in early tests can be divided on socio-economic criteria – those from more socially advantaged backgrounds are likely to catch up (and overtake initially high-scoring children from poorer backgrounds), while children from poorer backgrounds are not. Evidence about children’s skills for learning at entry to Primary school suggests that Blackburn with Darwen has significant challenges, particularly in relation to language. The working vocabulary of children upon entry, particularly from the more disadvantaged parts of the Borough is very narrow. Learning requires the assimilation of new information, through being able to think and talk about it and then develop understanding of the new information and how it fits into what the child already knows. Language is essential to every part of this process. Locally, children with poor language skills on school entry fall into two broad groups – those for whom English is not the principal language used at home; and those of White British heritage from disadvantaged backgrounds, especially boys. Weakness in the language skills (and therefore learning) of these groups continue to be a feature throughout their school life.

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Nationally, the introduction of the Early Years Foundation Stage and the Foundation Stage Profile has provided a way of assessing the relative development of children at the end of their first year in Primary school. In recent years, there has been a significant improvement in the aggregate performance of children in Blackburn with Darwen and in 2009 the proportion of local children achieving a ‘good’ level of development was higher than the national average. However, this improvement masks continued differences across the social gradient – with children living in the most advantaged parts of the Borough 50% more likely to achieve a ‘good’ level of development than their peers in the most disadvantaged areas of the Borough. There is an even wider spread of performance across ethnic and gender groups, with Pakistani heritage boys from disadvantaged backgrounds almost 3 times less likely to attain a ‘good’ level than local children from advantaged backgrounds. Even more worrying for the Borough, the proportion of the total child population from disadvantaged backgrounds (White British or Pakistani heritage) is growing, due to a mix of higher birth rates and population churn. Understanding these local needs has led to concerted efforts to address them in the early school years – particularly through tailored interventions aimed at improving communication, language and literacy. Blackburn with Darwen Children’s Services believe that it is only by overcoming these language and learning issues early that better outcomes for vulnerable children will be achieved. The Marmot Review makes an evidence based judgement that interventions in the early years of a child’s life are more cost effective than later remedial action. Yet, almost all developed countries invest significantly more resources on the later years of childhood. Over the past 10 years there has been a clear commitment in the Borough to support children’s early development. Programmes of the kind advocated by the Marmot Review to be appropriate and effective are already in place – parenting programmes, outreach work and integrated services delivered by experienced professionals. However, concerns raised in the Marmot Review also have local resonance – difficulties in recruiting and retaining experienced professionals and concerns about whether the most disadvantaged children and families are being reached by services, proportionate to their needs. School to adulthood Inequalities in educational outcomes are as persistent and well-known. They also follow a similar pattern – the poorer a child’s background, the less likely it is that they will achieve good educational outcomes. Yet we know that success in education is the most crucial determinant of an individual’s chances of getting a good job. And that having a good job increases the likelihood of both a longer, and a healthier life – and a life lived outside of poverty.

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Investment in the early years is essential to reducing inequalities. However, maintaining this reduction requires a sustained commitment to children and young people through the years of education, continuing into adulthood through non-vocational learning. The attainment gap in education has been the focus of education policy for decades, with much debate over the most appropriate structure of schooling and the curriculum taught within schools. There is now acceptance that reducing educational inequalities involves understanding the interaction between the social determinants of educational outcomes, including family background, neighbourhood and peers, and what goes on in schools. Indeed, evidence suggests that it is families rather than schools that have the most influence on educational attainment. We therefore also need to find a way of supporting children’s learning outside of school. Indeed the support a child receives in their home and wider community is crucial to their success in learning. Parents with either a negative experience of learning or without learning skills themselves, are unlikely to be able to provide such support. By such means disadvantage is passed from generation to generation. The evidence base for the beneficial impact of lifelong learning on health is growing. In terms of demonstrating the wider impact of adult learning on health and wellbeing and family life: • Taking women without qualifications to Level 2 (equivalent to grade A–C GSCE) would reduce their risk of depression at age 42 by 15 per cent, nationally worth an estimated saving of up to £200 million a year; • Parental involvement in school is more than four times as important in influencing performance of young people aged 16 as socio-economic class. Family learning is the most effective tool to involve the parents of disadvantaged children. As noted earlier, Blackburn with Darwen schools generally outperform similar schools in their educational outcomes at both an aggregate level and for particular vulnerable groups of children. The attainment gap between children eligible for free school meals and those who are not is narrower than the national average across all phases of school. However, local analysis of educational outcomes against the Income Deprivation Affecting Children Index (IDACI) still demonstrates a significant gap between those children living in the most affluent and the most deprived areas of the Borough. At age 7 years, children in the most affluent parts of the borough are 30% more likely to perform at expected levels in English and Maths key stage assessments, compared with their peers in the most disadvantaged areas. By age 16 years, they are nearly twice as likely to gain 5 or more grade A* to C GCSEs. There are also particular groups of children where the gap is even greater, particularly at age 16 years. Pakistani boys from deprived backgrounds are 50% less likely to achieve 5 or more grade A* to C GCSEs, compared to children living in the most affluent areas, and White British boys and girls from deprived backgrounds are 75% less likely to gain those grades.

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Summary The past 10 years have seen major improvements in both the support provided for families and children living in poverty and deprivation, and in the outcomes achieved by children and young people in schools and colleges. However, there is such a legacy of low skills within the locality and of consequently poorly paid work and relatively few high-value local employers that these achievements are not going to transcend broader economic realities. Local poverty is a multi-faceted, multi-generational issue. Addressing the early years of a child and the educational outcomes of young people is extremely important, as it provides the young adult with the skills to prosper in the modern world. However, if leaving the locality is essential to secure a rewarding job, then while the poverty of the young person concerned may be remedied and avoided, it does not address the wider issue of poverty within the borough. This is particularly the case if the borough exports its most able young residents, while its low quality, low cost housing encourages the arrival of adults and families already living in poverty elsewhere. Improving the life chances a child is essential to preventing repetitious, inter-generational poverty and education is the most single important route out of family poverty. But this is not sufficient in itself to address child poverty within the borough. Child poverty is caused by children living in the poverty of their parent(s), and only a substantial upward shift in the local economy is likely to move large numbers of families and children out of poverty. Individuals transcending poverty and moving away will result in no net improvement in child poverty, if they are replaced by other children living in families in poverty.

5. Key Messages & What Next The clear message from this assessment is that there are high levels of child poverty (or family poverty to be more accurate) within the borough. There are areas of acute poverty within the borough, although this is already a well known and mapped fact. These areas have the highest levels of out of work benefit claimants, the lowest levels of educational outcomes, the lowest levels of adult skills; and the highest prevalence in key children’s service client groups – children in care to social services; children visiting accident and emergency units in hospital. In addition, there are large numbers of children living in families claiming ‘in-work’ benefits – the working poor; and the proportion of child tax benefit claimants falling into this group is increasing. There are also a number of lone-parent claimants of the higher bands of child tax credits living in less deprived parts of the borough. The local economy is low skill, low pay based and economic improvements over the past decade while generally better than in comparable areas in Pennine Lancashire have not altered these basic facts. At best, the borough has maintained its comparative level of economic disadvantage both regionally and nationally, unable to transcend its location, characteristics of its adult workforce and its economic legacy.

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Extensive support and work has yielded considerable improvements in the educational outcomes achieved by the borough’s young residents. The borough, its schools and colleges all have strong reputations arising from this improvement. However, there remains a substantial disconnect between this achievement and the wider local economy into which our children and young people enter. This reflects the entrenched nature of poverty locally – with housing a particular tangible example of the issues faced locally and the level of investment required. To some extent, the gravity of the local economic position has been hidden by relatively high levels of public sector investment in the area. This has enabled the locality to improve local services and to recruit more highly-skilled employees. The general quality of local services and the improvement in educational outcomes speaks well of this investment. However, the global economic downturn, its national equivalent and the government’s response challenges the steps taken in the past decade to improve local services and address local poverty. Major funding sources to renew local infrastructure, such as Housing Market Renewal, are under threat and there is a clear trend whereby funding that was previously directed at the most deprived local areas is being reduced, mixed and redirected. Further, the imminent substantial downsizing in the local public sector will have grave consequences for many families locally, as jobs are lost. From the perspective of East Lancashire, it is difficult to share the national government’s confidence in the ability of the private sector to replace the jobs likely to be lost in the public sector. If anything, the degree to which public expenditure across East Lancashire underpins the private sector, makes job losses rippling out from the public sector to the private sector likely. Viewing the current pattern of poverty in the light of:

Its multi-faceted complexity and deeply embedded nature

the extent to which its entrenchment has not been overcome through a decade of economic growth and substantial public investment,

the world’s economic position and the national response to reducing public expenditure and the public sector; and

the fragility of the economic circumstances of many families within the borough Leads one to conclude that the challenges facing the borough are immense and that at present it is difficult to see where any substantial improvement in child poverty locally is likely to come from, or where such a project should begin. The large number of families dependent on benefits of both the in-work or out of work variety means that for the borough to have fewer children living in poverty, either the level of benefits needs to rise to a level above 60% of the median income – something it is impossible to envisage; or alternatively, fewer families need to be dependent on benefits for their income, i.e. more need to be in paid employment with pay levels 60% of the median pay level or above. The difficulty in achieving that aim – better paying jobs for the borough’s residents – is manifest in the Local Economic Assessment; and is likely to be made substantially more difficult with the squeeze on public sector expenditure.

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Remedying the root causes of child poverty therefore is not within the local authority and its partners’ gift. Larger forces outside of local control determine the levels of child poverty, not least the national government tax, benefit and expenditure plans. The likelihood of any of those areas of national policy moving decisively towards a positive impact on child poverty at this moment in time is remote. Local authorities are therefore left to ameliorate the effects of child poverty, seek to build the local economy and develop the skills within their children and young people to enable them to prosper in the modern world: all tasks to be undertaken within a wider national and international context that is less than benign at present.