Chief Executive’s Report to the SPCB September 2018

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Introduction This report looks at recent activities across the organisation and includes the SPCB financial report for Period 4 of the 2018-19 financial year. Items worth highlighting include:

The analysis and report on draw results for Portfolio and General Questions

First use of a procedure for considering objections to amendments to a bill

Changes to some committee membership and remits

The 12th Business in the Parliament Conference

5-Star Visitor Attraction Accreditation

Record number of visitors

A busy time for Facilities Management If you have any comments or questions on any aspect of this report, I would be happy to discuss them with you. Paul Grice Clerk/Chief Executive

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OVERVIEW OF PARLIAMENTARY ACTIVITIES Parliamentary business Chamber Desk In response to correspondence from a Member in April 2018 and a SPCB question in June regarding the randomness of the draw for Portfolio and General Questions, the Presiding Officer asked that, during the summer recess, SPICe undertake a full statistical analysis of draw results this session in order to assure Members that the system is working as expected. The report (annexed) found that, “Overall, the analysis suggests there are no irregularities or unexplainable discrepancies in the randomised selection draw process for General and Portfolio questions. The selection rates were found to be largely „normally distributed‟ and, for the majority of Members, were close to the average (within two standard deviations). This suggests that it is likely that Members‟ names were selected randomly during the period in question. In conclusion therefore, the results showed little or no real evidence against randomness.” Non-Government Bills Unit (NGBU) Two Members‟ Bills are being introduced in September, the first of which is John Finnie MSP‟s Children (Equal Protection from Assault) (Scotland) Bill, introduced on 6 September. The second, Mark Ruskell MSP‟s Restricted Roads (20 mph Speed Limit) (Scotland) Bill, is scheduled for introduction later in the month. Detailed policy development work was undertaken over recess on two other Members‟ Bills. Drafters for these have been appointed and instructions are under way. Work has also been done summarising consultation responses for three other proposals, and early work has been taken forward on a number of other proposals that have yet to be lodged. The clerk to the Pow of Inchaffray Private Bill Committee was busy over recess liaising with prospective objectors to an amendment to the Bill, the first time a procedure for considering such objections has been used since it was developed a couple of years ago. The objection period on another small Private Bill ran over summer but no objections were lodged. Legislation Team The Legislation Team has received more than 200 amendments for day 1 of the Planning Bill. Amendments are cross party in nature. Committees In response to recommendations in the Commission on Parliamentary Reform report, changes have been made to the size of some Committees as well as remits and membership. The web pages have been updated accordingly.

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The Standards, Procedures and Public Appointments (SPPA) Committee expressed concern about the extent of the media coverage of the complaint made against Mark McDonald MSP prior to the Committee‟s report being published and has agreed to consider how the provisions in the Code of Conduct in regard to confidentiality and disclosure can be strengthened. Committees ended the term with the publication of wide ranging reports. The Culture, Tourism, Europe and External Affairs (CTEEA) Committee used the start of the Edinburgh Film Festival to launch its report on „Scotland‟s Screen Sector‟, an example of the new and innovative ways in which Committees are looking to publicise their work. A report on a petition on behalf of Scottish Mesh Survivors was published with a video package for the website and also podcasts featuring the members of the Committee. The report was covered widely by the media including print, radio and TV. This year will be the 12th Business in the Parliament Conference, an annual event hosted jointly by the Scottish Parliament and Scottish Government. The aim of this unique partnership event is to engage the Scottish business community in the work of parliament and government. Provisionally titled: “Young at Heart: Beating the Drum for Scottish Business in the Year of Young People”, the conference will take place on 25 and 26 October, with contributions from: the Presiding Officer; the Convener of the Economy, Energy and Fair Work Committee; the First Minister; Edel Harris, Chief Executive of Cornerstone; and two of the schools that featured among this year‟s Festival of Youth Enterprise finalists. Parliamentary Engagement International Relations Office The International Relations Office facilitated visits by the following delegations:

Members of the Committee on Economic Affairs and Energy of the Bundestag: Meeting with the Presiding Officer, MSPs and Parliament officials

Speaker of the Legislative Assembly for the Australian Capital Territory: Meeting with the Presiding Officer and Parliament officials

Members of the Constitution and Law Committee of the Senate of the Czech Republic: Meeting with MSPs and Parliament officials

High Commissioner of Canada and Deputy Minister of Global Affairs Canada: Meeting with the Presiding Officer

Speaker of the Parliament of the Czech Republic: Meeting with the Deputy Presiding Officer

Members of the Standing Committee on Local Government and Public Administration of the Norwegian Parliament: Meeting with MSPs

Association of Catalan Municipalities: Meeting with MSP and Parliament officials

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Members of the Committee on Budget and Finances of the German State Parliament of Rheinland-Pfalz: Meetings with Parliament officials

Members of the Committee for Rural Districts and Islands of the Danish Parliament: Meetings with MSPs and Parliament officials

There were no outward visits over the recess period. Visitor Services Summer Recess was very busy with visitors. The figures received so far indicate upwards of 60,000 visitors to the building in July and August, which is an increase of around 10,000 visitors on the same period in 2017. Guided tours continued to be popular, with almost 5,500 visitors joining tours over the summer months. A further 2,059 visitors joined the „Ten Minute Talks‟ in August – the highest number achieved in any month this year. 5-Star Visitor Attraction Accreditation

I am delighted to report that the Scottish Parliament has been awarded a Five Star Visitor Attraction accreditation award, the first time that the Parliament has been rated since the move to Holyrood. We hope the award of a Visitor Attraction status will help encourage the people of Scotland to visit their Parliament, raising awareness of the various activities they can undertake. The message provided by Visitor Attraction status also supports the ongoing „Visit Parliament‟ marketing and awareness-raising campaigns and is a clear indication that the Parliament is „open‟. The award is the result of an anonymous visit by a VisitScotland Quality Assurance Advisor in July 2018, who experienced all services and facilities available to visitors on a non-business day. There will be an annual repeat inspection. This was a collective achievement, involving teams from across the parliamentary service, including Visitor Services, Public Information & Resources, Events & Exhibitions, Security, FM (Sodexo / Mitie / Trac), the Web Team and MRO. Particular highlights from the inspection were:

The Live Chat function “excellent”: Public Information & Resources

The Guided Tour (“exceptional”): Visitor Services

The Parliament Shop: achieving the highest score of any section (94%)

And perhaps most pleasing, on our inclusivity we achieved full marks, with special reference made to the Parliament Exhibition. MRO is working on the announcement with the Presiding Officer, currently suggested for 26 September.

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Events and Exhibitions On Thursday 7 June, Deputy Presiding Officer Linda Fabiani MSP chaired the final of the Donald Dewar Memorial Debating Competition in the Debating Chamber. This year‟s motion was - This House believes that physician assisted suicide should be legalised - and the winners were Peebles High School. The Deputy Presiding Officer also hosted:

an event on Saturday 9 June for some of the community groups from across Scotland that worked on the PROCESSIONS banner project celebrating 100 years since the passing of legislation which granted the first women the right to vote in the UK; and

a lunchtime event for Inclusion Scotland – Access to Politics Charter on Thursday 14 June.

The fourth Edinburgh International Culture Summit was chaired by the Presiding Officer from Wednesday 22 to Friday 24 August. This year‟s theme was Culture: Connecting Peoples and Places with three programme strands – Culture in a Networked World; Culture and Investment; and Culture and Wellbeing. Forty-five official delegations and 80 programme contributors attended over the three days. The programme included a first for the Chamber - a live SKYPE interview between Liz Diller, founding partner of Diller Scofidio + Renfro (DS+R), a New York-based design studio, and Prof Richard Sennett OBE, Founder and Chair of the Advisory Committee of Theatrum Mundi. Saturday 25 August saw a live musical performance Keep me like the echo in the Garden Lobby as part of the Edinburgh Art Festival led by artists Ross Birrell and David Harding involving Syrian musician, the Damascus String Quintet (of the Syrian Expat Philharmonic Orchestra) and the Glasgow School of Art Choir. The World Press Photo exhibition took place in the Main Hall from Wednesday 1 to Saturday 25 August and received over 33,000 visitors. On Thursday 6 September the Presiding Officer chaired the John P. Mackintosh Memorial Debate in the Debating Chamber. 2018 marks the 40th Anniversary of the death of the leading academic, politician, writer and political thinker. Contributions were made from Baron Campbell of Pittenweem; Angus Robertson, former Deputy Leader of SNP; Professor Mona Siddiqui; and Catherine Stihler MEP. Paintings on loan from the Wilhelmina Barns-Graham Trust went on display near Committee Rooms 1 and 3 from Saturday 8 September. The Presiding Officer hosted The Sound of Vision event in the Members‟ Room on Monday 10 September. Members heard from, and had the

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opportunity to ask, visually impaired people who have completed an eight-week course enabling them to deliver public speaking developed by Steven Sutherland. Parliamentary Services SPICe A new series of Brexit briefings is being timetabled under the heading of “Preparing for Brexit”. This currently includes briefings from experts on:

Public opinion of Brexit – Professor John Curtice, University of Strathclyde.

The Future of the EU27 - Anthony Salamone, University of Edinburgh.

UK-EU Security Treaty and the role for Scotland - Maria Fletcher & Dr Leandro Mancano, Chair University of Glasgow & University of Edinburgh.

Brexit and the creative/digital industries - Prof. Daithí Mac Síthigh, Queen‟s University Belfast.

Audit During August and September 2018, the SPCB‟s Head of Internal Audit visited ten local offices (9 constituency and 1 region) to perform local office reviews in accordance with the 2018/19 Internal Audit Plan. Annual audit visits to local offices was a key recommendation of Sir Neil McIntosh‟s 2009 report to Parliament on the Scheme for the Reimbursement of Members‟ Expenses. The Advisory Audit Board and I agreed that these should continue in the current session.

Local office audit visits include seeking assurance over verification and use of assets and equipment; office lease agreements; and signage. In addition, office and personal security was discussed with Members and the local office staff as were the arrangements in place at each office for the disposal of commercial waste. For the ten offices visited, no significant matters were identified. Facilities Management

As always, the summer recess was a busy time for Facility Management colleagues, taking advantage of a quieter building to carry out a number of maintenance and other works projects. These included the creation of hub space in Queensberry House, additional seating in the Garden Lobby, the replacement of the blinds in Committee Room 2 and the refurbishment of the tables in the Presiding Officer‟s Dining Room and Committee Room 6. A couple of the more significant projects are detailed below.

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Chamber Roof Access Posts Installation The project works to install 17 upgraded access posts on the Chamber roof commenced upon completion of Chamber business during the last week of June. The most visible aspect of the works was a scaffold tower which was erected in the lightwell to give access to the roof. Our high-level building maintenance contractors, TRAC and their sub-contractors, commenced the installation of the posts as soon as the scaffolding was commissioned. The project progressed well during July when the weather was good. The return of inclement weather during August hampered works, however the team worked well to deploy some innovative equipment and methods to eliminate water ingress and allow the works to continue during this period. The works were completed before the end of recess with the exception of a single post which could not be installed due to an unforeseen issue with the layout of the structural steelwork forming the roof. This remaining post will be installed prior to the end of March 2019 following further investigative works. The new posts now enable TRAC to undertake programmed cleaning and maintenance works to areas of the exterior of the Chamber which were not previously accessible, greatly enhancing the look and integrity of the building.

Timber Refurbishment – West Elevation MSP Block

After nearly fifteen years of exposure to the elements, the „oak bamboo‟ poles that decorate the west elevation of the MSP Block had become extremely weathered and required refurbishment to maintain their integrity. The project commenced with the simple brief to TRAC of establishing the most effective process as well as identifying the optimum coating specification in terms of colour and durability. Four gazebo tents were set up in the MSP West Garden establishing a weatherproof production line. This approach allowed the team to produce a level of finish usually only achieved in factory conditions with an expectancy that this process will not need to be repeated for a further 15 years. The poles were then reinstated using cherry picker access vehicles. TRAC have also taken the opportunity to re-coat all windows with the same coating system and the visual improvement to this elevation is striking. This project is testament to the skills and capabilities of our in-house team as the tendering of this work to an external specialist would have incurred significant additional costs. BIT BIT are currently updating the version of Windows 10 on Members‟ (and their staff) devices. A number of devices require manual intervention and those Members are being contacted. It is also becoming clearer that some devices are not being utilised and these will be called back.

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SPCB FINANCE REPORT Period 4 – 2018-19

1. This report is to inform SPCB of general financial activity and expenditure trends in 2018-19.

Executive Summary

Performance against Budget (year to date variance)

a) Total SPCB revenue and capital expenditure

Para 2 & 6

b) Total SPS expenditure

Para 8

c) Total project expenditure

Para 9

Operation of Financial Controls

d) Key reconciliations up to date

Para 4

Other Key Indicators

e) Payment performance

Para 4

Key: RAG Status

Financial Commentary

2. The Scottish Parliament‟s total revenue and capital expenditure for the first

four months of 2018-19 of £27.2m represents an underspend against budget of £1.2m (4.3%) which is within the SPCB‟s target range of 0% to 5.0% (as shown in green in the Executive Summary chart). The overall underspend is higher in absolute and percentage terms than the comparable position for 2017-18 of expenditure of £25.9m which represented an underspend against budget of £1.1m (4.2%).

3. Following on from the decisions of the Strategic Resources Board in June,

there was a net decrease in central contingency of £174k in July reducing it to £582k.

4. All key reconciliations are up to date. Payment performance within contract

terms for the year to date exceeds the 99% target. The equivalent figure for payment within 10 days is 97.5% for the year to date.

5. The year-end accounts exercise is proceeding to timetable and Audit Scotland

commenced its fieldwork in early July.

Performance within target range

Performance outwith target range but acceptable

100%

Performance outwith target range not acceptable

99.2%

G

A

R

4.3%

6.2%

3.3%

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Financial Results 6. The SPCB‟s total revenue and capital expenditure per Schedule 1 for July

2018 is £27.2m, which is £1.2m (4.3%) under the approved year to date budget of £28.4m. This is similar in absolute terms to the July 2017 results for which the year to date expenditure was £25.9m against a budget of £27.04m. The underspend percentage is slightly higher than the July 2017 value of 4.2%.

7. The table below shows actual monthly expenditure (red) up to the end of July

and the current reforecast monthly expenditure (green) for the remaining 8 months of the year. The original monthly budget profile is shown by the black line. There are some higher expenditure items scheduled to occur in the remaining 8 months of the financial year:

£1.75m in Officeholders Accommodation relocation project over April – October, with a peak expected in September

Members‟ expenses are phased to reflect higher monthly expenditure with a peak expected in the later part of the year

Underspend at this stage is due to budget phasing for the Parliamentary Service (SPS). The only budget changes to date are for the SPS and this reflects all changes since the budget was finalised in late 2017.

4.6

3.5

4.2

3.1 3.3 3

2.3

1.7

1.8 1.7

1.2

3.1 3.3

4.3

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

%-a

ge

Trend of Total Monthly Underspend

17/18 18/19

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Parliamentary Service Costs (Schedule 2)

8. The year to date expenditure for the Parliamentary Service (SPS) of £14.6m is £0.96m (6.2%) under budget. Parliamentary Service Costs incorporate both capital and revenue projects. The previous year‟s expenditure of £13.9m at period 4 was £0.7m (5%) below budget. An analysis of the current financial year by main category of expenditure is shown in the two charts below.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 P6 P7 P8 P9 P10 P11 P12

£ M

illio

n

18-19 Original Budget vs Actual and Reforecast Spend

MonthlyExpenditureto date

CurrentMonthlyBudgetprofile toyear end

OriginalMonthlyBudgetprofile

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Staff Pay is reported as £390k (4.2%) under budget including Agency staff and contractors. Staff turnover and the associated vacancies have exceeded the budgeted vacancy assumption in the first four months of the year.

The expenditure on staff pay to date of £8.9m is £450k (5.3%) higher than the equivalent 17-18 costs.

Expenditure on Staff Related Costs is £187k. This is £99k (34.6%) below the budget to date of £287k. Actual spend on staff related costs is £26k (16.4%) more than for the equivalent period in 2017-18. Training (£52k) and Childcare Vouchers (£18k) make up the biggest elements of the underspend.

8,918

187

2,395

1,808

1,319

9,307

287

2,432 2,199

1,364

8,467

161

2,241

1,835

1,175

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

Total Staff Costs Total StaffRelated Costs

Total PropertyCosts

Total RunningCosts

Total Projects

£'0

00

Parliamentary Service YTD Expenditure £k

Actual 18/19 Budget 18/19 Actual 17/18

45

391

37

99

390

(10)90190290390

Projects

Running Costs

Property Costs

Staff Related Costs

Staff Pay

Underspend £k Overspend £k

Parliamentary Service YTD Under & Overspends £k

13

Property Costs of £2.4m are £37k (1.5%) below the Year to Date budget. This is principally attributable to an underspend in maintenance (£91k) offset by an overspend in Property Advisors (£30k).

Running Costs of £1.8m are £391k (16.7%) under budget. Main running cost underspends are in Advertising (£20k), Telephony (£27k), General Consumables (£33k), Payroll Contract (£36k), Equipment Maintenance (£52k), Restaurant Services (£59k) and IT Contract (£66k), partly offset by higher expenditure on Mail Services & Postage (£34k).

Project Reporting (Schedule 3)

9. Schedule 3 shows project spend by category of project.

Total project expenditure to July 2018 is £1.3m, £45k (3.3%) under the year to date budget.

Revenue Projects show a total spend of £704k, an underspend of £74k (9.6%) against the phased budget of £779k.

Capital Projects have spent £615k for the year to date, representing a variance of £30k (5.1%) against the phased budget of £585k. The expenditure is mainly in respect of the Security Systems Replacement project.

£66k

£59k

£52k

£36k

£33k

£27k

£20k

(£34k)

IT Contract

Restaurant Services

Equipment Maintenance

Payroll Contract

General Consumables

Telephony

Advertising

Mail Services & Postage

PS (Excluding Projects) Key YTD Under/(Overspends) £k

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This compares with 22.6% spent, 17.5% on purchase orders, 37.3% forecast and 22.6% uncommitted at the same period in 2017-18.

Members’ Costs (Schedule 2)

10. Members‟ costs are analysed in Schedule 2, which shows £9.5m reported cost to July 2018, £1k (0%) lower than the phased year to date budget. (The corresponding figures for 2017-18 at period 4 were expenditure of £9.1m with an underspend of £154k, (1.7%).

24%

21% 39%

16%

Project Budget Status July 2018

Spent

PO

Forecast

Uncommitted

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Other

Security Maturity programme

FM Building & Equipment

BIT and Digital

Project Budget Status by Portfolio

Spent PO Forecast Uncommitted

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Commissioners & Ombudsman Costs (Schedule 2)

11. The SPCB‟s funding cost for Commissioners and Ombudsman (Officeholders) in the 4 months of 2018-19 amounts to £3.1m, which is £259k (7.7%) under the year to date budget. The bulk of the reported underspend is in the Officeholders Accommodation project (£150k) and is due to timing differences. The unutilised balance in the Officeholders contingency is £300k. £43k has been transferred from Officeholders budget to the SPCB‟s central contingency in respect of GDPR services.

Central Contingency 12. The central contingency has decreased by £174k in period 3 from £756k to

£582k.

Commitment

This compares with 30% spend, outstanding commitment 50%, forecast 15% and funds available of 5% as at July 2017-18.

Actual Spend, £14.6m, 30.6%

Outstanding Commitment, £28.9m, 60.5%

Forecast , £3.4m, 7.1%

Funds Available, £0.9m, 1.8%

PS Committed Funds as at July 2018: £m,%

Period 04

July 2018 Financial Schedules

Schedule 1

Current Original

Annual Approved

Actual Budget Variance Variance Budget Budget£'000 £'000 £'000 % £'000 £'000

Parliamentary Service Costs (Schedule 2) 14,627 15,589 962 6.2 47,867 46,905

Members' Costs (Schedule 2) 9,455 9,456 1 0.0 29,778 29,778

Commissioners & Ombudsman Costs (Schedule 2) 3,098 3,357 259 7.7 11,548 11,592

Sub Total 27,180 28,402 1,222 4.3 89,193 88,275

Reserves - SPCB Contingency n/a 582 1,500

TOTAL SPCB EXPENDITURE 27,180 28,402 1,222 4.3 89,775 89,775

Year to Date

Period 04

July 2018 Financial Schedules

Schedule 2

Current Original

Annual Approved

Actual Budget Variance Variance Budget Budget

£'000 £'000 £'000 % £'000 £'000

Parliamentary Service Costs

Staff Pay 8,918 9,307 390 4.2 27,918 27,412

Staff Related Costs 187 287 99 34.6 907 918

Property Costs 2,395 2,432 37 1.5 7,295 7,295

Running Costs (Including Events & Income) 1,808 2,199 391 16.7 6,687 6,720

Parliamentary Service Costs excluding Projects 13,308 14,225 917 6.4 42,807 42,345

Projects (Schedule 3) 1,319 1,364 45 3.3 5,060 4,560

Total PS Expenditure 14,627 15,589 962 6.2 47,867 46,905

Members' Costs

MSP & Officeholders' Pay 4,076 4,081 5 0.1 12,268 12,268

0 0

MSP Expenses 5,227 5,204 (23) (0.5) 16,949 16,949

0 0

Party Assistance 152 172 20 11.4 561 561

Total 9,455 9,456 1 0.0 29,778 29,778

Commissioners & Ombudsman

Ethical Standards Commission 206 (457) (663) 145.1 915 926

Standards Commission 83 83 0.5 262 264

Human Rights Commission 343 594 251 42.3 1,014 1,029

Scottish Information Commissioner 540 963 424 44.0 1,555 1,565

Public Services Ombudsman 1,328 1,394 65 4.7 4,400 4,400

Commissioner for Children 450 482 32 6.6 1,352 1,358

Officeholders Accomodation Project 148 298 150 1,750 1,750

Reserves - C&O Contingency 0 0.0 300 300

Total 3,098 3,357 259 7.7 11,548 11,592

Year-to-date

Period 04

July 2018 Financial Schedules

Schedule 3

Project Summary : July 2018 YTD Actual

£k

YTD Budget

£k

Variance

£k

Variance

%

Current Annual

Budget £k

Original

Approved

Budget £k

% Spent of

Total Budget

Outstanding

Commitment

£k

Forecast Funds

Available

Revenue Projects

Allocated 704 779 74 9.6 3,802 2,732 18.5% 1,152 1,519 426

Unallocated 0 0 0 n/a 0 578 n/a 0 0 0

Total Revenue Projects 704 779 74 9.6 3,802 3,310 18.5% 1,152 1,519 426

Capital Projects

Allocated 615 585 (30) (5.1) 1,258 1,177 48.9% 28 628 (13)

Unallocated 0 0 0 n/a 0 73 n/a 0 0 0

Total Capital Projects 615 585 (30) (5.1) 1,258 1,250 48.9% 28 628 (13)

TOTAL 1,319 1,364 45 3.3 5,060 4,560 26.1% 1,180 2,147 413

By Portfolio: YTD Actual

£k

YTD Budget

£k

Variance

£k

Variance

%

Current Annual

Budget £k

Original

Approved

Budget £k

% Spent of

Total Budget

Outstanding

Commitment

£k

Forecast Funds

Available

BIT and Digital 490 583 93 16.0 1,783 1,113 27.5% 716 1,060 (484)

FM Building & Equipment 707 656 (51) (7.8) 2,162 2,162 32.7% 230 709 517

Security Maturity programme 70 73 3 3.8 895 534 7.8% 140 348 337

Other 53 52 (1) () 220 100 24.0% 95 30 42

Total Projects Allocated 1,319 1,364 45 3.3 5,060 3,909 26.1% 1,180 2,147 413

Unallocated Project Budget 0 0 0 n/a 0 651 0.0% 0 0 0

TOTAL 1,319 1,364 45 3.3 5,060 4,560 26.1% 1,180 2,147 413

Statistical analysis of randomised draw results

Context

The draw for Portfolio and General questions is carried out by the Chamber Desk each week using software that randomises those Members' names put forward for inclusion in one or more draws. The Chamber Desk routinely monitors each draw to ensure that there are no discrepancies or unusual patterns arising that would suggest any problems, and has not identified any issues in this regard. Following queries about the system a verification exercise was undertaken in January 2018 by BIT, which found that the randomised functionality works as expected. As a matter of good practice, the Presiding Officer asked for a full statistical analysis of draw results to be undertaken in the summer recess by SPICe to verify the randomised functionality. SPICe was commissioned to undertake a statistical audit of the results of the random draw for General and Portfolio Questions from the start of the current parliamentary session until June 2018 (week 74). The Chamber Desk provided SPICe with raw data for analysis. The data contained 105 observations with the following variables: MSP name, party, total submissions, total selections, percentage selections over submissions. At this initial stage two MSPs were removed from the data as their behavioural characteristics had skewed the data1. These were extreme outliers. SPICe used Stata Statistical Software for the statistical testing reporting in this paper. Visual analysis of draw selections

A numeric sequence is said to be statistically random when it contains no recognisable patterns or regularities. Thus, the first step in assessing randomness is visual inspection of graphic information.

Visual inspection or ‘eyeballing’ is the most common and readily available method of initial data assessment. Experts in pattern recognition maintain that the ‘eyeball’ technique is still the most effective procedure for searching arbitrary, possibly unknown structures in data. Visual inspection of the distribution may be used for assessing normality.

Inspection of Figure 1 shows no recognisable patterns in the distribution of submissions selected in relation to surname. Identical analysis was also conducted with forenames and again there was no indication of patterns or regularities.

Figure 2 below shows that on average 33.6% of all submissions were selected during the period under analysis. This shows MSPs have a one in three chance of selection. The

1 The Presiding Officer had one submission and no selections, resulting in 0% success rate. An individual

MSP had one submission and one selection, resulting in 100% success rate. Both success rates were extreme outliers, thus were removed.

2

variance around this average was relatively small, ranging from 28.8% for those with a surname starting with J, to 38.2% for those with a surname starting with H. Thus, the general picture is of a relatively even distribution across the alphabet.

Figure 1: Successful submissions all MSPs (A to Z) (%)

Figure 2: Successful submissions by surname (%)

Table 1 further shows little variance around the average (33.6%) when the data is analysed by parliamentary party. The submission success rates ranged from 32.8% for the Scottish Liberal Democrats to 34.1% for Scottish Labour.

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% S

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33.6%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

JKSA

WP

MRC

Average All MSPsTBFDLGH

% Success Rate

3

Table 1: Successful submissions by party Sum of

submissions Sum of success

Average success rate

Scottish Liberal Democrats 265 87 32.8%

Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party

1806 594 32.9%

Scottish Green Party 321 106 33.0%

Average All MSPs 6406 2154 33.6%

Scottish National Party 2571 875 34.0%

Scottish Labour 1443 492 34.1%

Overall, on visual inspection there is no evidence of unusual patterns or inconsistencies in the draw data. However, visual inspection alone does not guarantee statistical randomness. Thus, the next step of the analysis is to test for normality of distribution and for statistical bias.

Testing for normality of distribution

The normal distribution is a probability function that describes how the values of a variable are distributed. It is a symmetric distribution where most of the observations cluster around the central peak and the probabilities for values further away from the mean taper off equally in both directions. Extreme values in both tails of the distribution are similarly unlikely. Using Stata, SPICe looked at the distribution of winning percentages for each MSP.

Figure 3 shows the resulting histogram. The distribution of success rates follows the typical pattern for all normal distributions. Most MSPs are close to the average (33.6%). Small differences between an individual MSP’s success rate and the mean occur more frequently than substantial deviations from the mean. The standard deviation is 0.0598%, which indicates the typical distance that individual MSPs tend to fall from the mean success rate. The low value for the standard deviation reflects the fact that observations are closely clustered around the average and provides further reassurance that there are no abnormalities in the patterns observed.

The distribution is symmetric. The number of MSPs below the average roughly equals the number of MSPs above the average. In both tails of the distribution, extremely low success rates occur as infrequently as extremely high success rates. Hence, it can be concluded the data is normally distributed, which means there are unlikely to be anomalies in the data.

4

Figure 3: Distribution of successful submissions by MSP (%)

Testing statistical bias in relation individual MSPs

When you have normally distributed data, the standard deviation becomes particularly valuable. You can use it to determine the proportion of the values that fall within a specified number of standard deviations from the mean. A value on the standard normal distribution is known as a Z-score. A Z-score represents the number of standard deviations above or below the mean that a specific observation falls.

To determine if there was a significant difference in the chance of selection, the percentage chance of selection was converted to a Z-score using Stata. In statistical terms, it would be expected that any individual MSP with a Z-score value between -1.96 and 1.962 would fall within the normal limits of variation for a random normal distribution. The distribution was largely normally distributed around the mean, except for two notable outliers (these are not the same as outliers excluded (PO and other MSP) in the initial stage of the analysis). However, these two outliers, in terms of Z-scores, can be explained by small sample sizes3. For example, one of these outliers had 10 submissions compared to an average of 62 across all MSPs.

Two other MSPs had Z-scores beyond the required range (meaning they were outside the limits of variation for a random normal distribution), but in both cases, were only just

2 95% of scores are going to be no more than 1.96 standard deviation units away from the mean. That

means that most scores will fall between z=-1.96 to z=+1.96. However, some scores will be outside this range and these should be interpreted as outwith a normal distribution. 3 A fundamental principle of statistics is that a sample size that is too small reduces the power of analysis and

increases the margin of error. Small samples can lead to large variances in results.

05

10

15

20

Fre

qu

en

cy

.2 .3 .4 .5Percentage

5

outside the limits of a normal distribution. Further investigation does not identify any irregularities linked to the characteristics of the MSPs in question.

A further method that can be used to help determine if a sequence truly occurred by chance is called the runs test. This test checks whether MSP success rates are serially independent—that is, whether they occur in a random order— by counting how many runs there are above and below a threshold. By default, the median is used as the threshold. A small number of runs indicates positive serial correlation; a large number indicates negative serial correlation. The runs test results showed little or no real evidence against randomness.

In summary, the testing of statistical bias has shown no evidence of uncommon patterns or inconsistencies.

Conclusion

Overall, the analysis suggests there are no irregularities or unexplainable discrepancies in the randomised selection draw process for General and Portfolio questions. The selection rates were found to be largely ‘normally distributed’ and, for the majority of Members, were close to the average (within two standard deviations). This suggests that it is likely that Members’ names were selected randomly during the period in question.

Therefore, in conclusion the results showed little or no real evidence against randomness.

Alison O’Connor Financial Scrutiny Unit – SPICe

July 2018