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ChicagoSo-Called Livability:Threat to the Quality ofLife & the EconomyAmerican Dream ConferenceOrlandoWendell Cox24 September 20101

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Moscow

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WashingtonsSo-CalledLivabilityAgenda

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Bangkok5

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Levittown, NYThe Long Anti-Suburban CampaignANTI-MOBILITY, ANTI-AFFLUENCE7

So-Called Livability in AustraliaOUTER SUBURBSPerth8

Miamis Empty CondosThe Condominium BustCENTRAL CITY MARKET IS WEAK9

The Latest JustificationGREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONSSouthern Greenland10

So-CalledLivability:ExpensiveLegacy11Prescriptive Planning (Smart Growth) Policies:Including Potential for Increasing Housing PricesStrategyPotential to Increase Housing Prices1Regional Urban Growth BoundariesYES2Local Urban Growth BoundariesYES3Regional Urban Service DistrictsYES4Local Urban Service DistrictsYES5Large-Lot Zoning in Rural AreasYES6High Development Fees & ExactionsYES7Restrictions on Physically Developable LandYES8State Aid Contingent on Local Growth Zones9Transferable Development Rights10Adequacy of Facilities RequirementsFrom Table 15.4, Costs of Sprawl---2000Yet Smart Growth Advocates AgreeONLY QUESTION IS HOW MUCH IT INCREASES COSTS12

1. More liberal lending practices in the United States2. Housing demand increases as a result3(a). PRESCRIPTIVE MARKETSHuge increases: prices and mortgage exposures5. Large defaults losses lead to United States mortgage meltdown4(a) RESPONSIVE MARKETSSmall increases: prices and mortgage exposures3(b). Overwhelming share of default losses (85%)4(b) Small share of default losses (15%)6. US mortgage meltdown triggers international financial crisis

Prescriptive Land Use Regulation &The International Financial CrisisSmart Growth Triggers Financial CrisisCAUSED OR INTENSIFIED THE PANIC OF 2008

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So-Called LivabilityBROOKINGS INSTITUTION

SO-CALLED LIVABILTIY(SMART GROWTH)OTHER(TRADITIONAL)XXSO-CALLED LIVABILTIY(SMART GROWTH)141950 1970: From Census Bureau1980-2008: From Harvard University2009: From DemographiaAnnual Data Begins at 1980Housing Affordability Since 1950MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS: MEDIAN MULTIPLE Median Multiple: Median House Price divided by Median Household Income15

Ground Zero Markets25% LOSS/$100,000 LOSS TO CRASHSan Francisco16Gross House ValuesSO-CALLED LIVABLE & OTHER METROPOLITAN AREASTrillions17What if No Smart Growth?SO-CALLED LIVABLE & OTHER METROPOLITAN AREASTrillions18Intensity of LossesSO-CALLED LIVABLE & OTHER METROPOLITAN AREASTrillions19Average House Prices: ActualSO-CALLED LIVABLE & OTHER METROPOLITAN AREAS20House Prices: What if No Smart GrowthSO-CALLED LIVABLE & OTHER METROPOLITAN AREAS21Intensity of Losses per HouseSO-CALLED LIVABLE & OTHER METROPOLITAN AREAS22Texas & California House Prices1980-2009: MEDIAN MULTIPLE

23Housing Affordability: 2010COMPARING SAN DIEGO AND DALLAS-FORT WORTH24The Difference is Not Construction CostsSAN DIEGO V. DALLAS-FORT WORTH25House Prices & Household Incomes: 2009SO-CALLED LIVABLE & OTHER METROPOLITAN AREAS26Monthly Rent: % of Annual Income: 2008SO-CALLED LIVABLE & OTHER METROPOLITAN AREAS27Minority Home Ownership TrailsGAP UNLIKELY TO NARROW WITH SMART GROWTH28Net Domestic Migration: 2000-2009SO-CALLED LIVABLE & OTHER METROPOLITAN AREAS29

Southern GreenlandGreenhouseGas Emissions30

Shenyang, ChinaCost Effectiveness is CrucialUN IPCC MAXIMUM RANGE PER METRIC TON$20 $50MarketLess than$15McKinseyAverage$17Above $50 is wastefulDetracts from efforts to reduce GHGs& unnecessarily reduces employment & economic growth31Transit/Land Use Strategies ExpensiveCOST PER TON REMOVED: SAN FRANCISCOSource: 2035 Plan32Congestion & Excess GHG Emissions90 URBAN AREAS: CHANGE 1982-200733Emissions ProjectionsBEFORE & AFTER NEW MILEAGE STANDARDS34-5%-50%GHG Emissions ProjectionsTECHNOLOGY VS. PORTLAND STRATEGIES35

European Parliament MPG RequirementEQUIVALENT 65 MPG BY 2020, 90 MPG LATER?Paris: 12 Lane Freeway

VW 235MPGAlternative FuelsSuch as Cellulosic Ethanol(NRDC)36

GHG Emissions per CapitaAustralian Urban AreasAyres RockAustraliaCoreRing1Ring2Outer

Inconvenient ResearchHIGH DENSITY THE ANSWER TO EVERY QUESTION?

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http://www.meti.go.jp/english/press/data/nBackIssue20080617_01.htmlZero Emission House: Japan2,100 SQUARE FEET: DETACHED38NAS Report: Land Use & TransitCHANGE IN DRVING 2000-203039

Shenyang(Manchuria)So-CalledLivability, Jobs& the Economy

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Hong KongDensity & Traffic Volumes: International VEHICLE HOURS PER SQUARE MILE41 exposure to traffic-related air pollutants was more highly related to mortality than were city-wide background levels. For example, those who lived near a major road were more likely to die of a cardiovascular event.American Heart Associationwww.americanheart.org/presenter.jhtml?identifier=4419Density Increases Health RiskHIGHER TRAFFIC CONCENTRATION42

Land Regulations Stunt Economic Growth US FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD RESEARCH20% less job growththan expected inmetropolitan areaswith strongestland use regulation-Raven Saks US Federal Reserve BoardPhiladelphia43

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