7
40 60 80 100 120 1-Jun-17 30-Nov-17 1-Jun-18 Shares in Issue (mn) 240.0 Market Cap (US$ mn) 132.0 Estimated Free Float (%) 49.0 3M Avg Daily Volume 100,043 3M Avg Daily Turnover (US$) 60,153 12M High / Low (Rs) 169.0 / 85.5 3M / 12M Price Change (%) -22.9 / -48.9 Chevron Lubricants Lanka LLUB – Rs.85.8 CT CLSA SECURITIES (PVT) LIMITED | A Member of the Colombo Stock Exchange Subecca Sothylingam Key Highlights Email : [email protected] Phone : +94 11 2552290 1Q2018 Results Update LLUB reported a 1Q2018 Net Profit (NP) of Rs.697mn (-15% YoY though +27% QoQ), broadly in line with our expectations, amid a decline in revenue subsequent to the +12% upward product price revision implemented in April 2017 and continued erosion in Gross Profit margin LLUB’s Net Profit forecast broadly maintained at Rs.2,532mn for 2018E (-1% YoY), with earnings impacted by prevailing high base oil prices and toughening industry competition. Meanwhile 2019E Net Profit forecast revised down by -3% to Rs.2,711mn (+7% YoY – off a low base), owing to a downward revision in GP Margin expectations, resulting from an upward momentum in base oil prices LLUB share price has underperformed the broader market, declining -23% and -49% during the past three months and twelve months respectively (vs. the ASI’s declining of -2% and -4% respectively over the same period) - the share touched a eleven year low of Rs.85.5 on 31 May 2018 - amid mounting concerns of financial slowdown on the back of the company losing market share Our current DCF valuation for LLUB (cost of Equity 17.3) suggests a value of Rs.83.5 per share, which is at a ~3% discount to its current market price. Applying different discount rates (cost of equity ranging from 14.3-20.3) suggest a valuation range of Rs.75.7-Rs.92.2 per share Further on our current estimates, LLUB trades at a eleven year low PER of 8.1X 2018E and 7.6X 2019E, offering gross dividend yields of ~11-12% for both 2018E and 2019E Amid the steep share price declines, the bulk of the negatives seem to have already been priced in. Nevertheless, the near term pressure on earnings, primarily due to the anticipated margin erosion given the rise in global oil prices and LLUB being limited to pass on any major cost hikes due to stiffening industry competition, may remain an overhang on the share. Meanwhile, any renewed efforts by the company to successfully gain market share and improve its financial performance may bode well for the share, particularly given the prevailing low valuations Key Trading Information Sri Lanka Manufacturing 01 June 2018 Relative Share Price Movement (%) LLUB: Valuation Ratios Financials - Year to 31 December 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E Net Revenue (Rs mn) 11,564 12,089 11,052 12,213 13,179 Net Profit (Rs mn) 3,088 3,481 2,554 2,532 2,711 Earnings per Share (Rs) 12.9 14.5 10.6 10.5 11.3 Earnings per Share Growth (%) 12.4 12.7 -26.7 -0.9 7.1 Price /Earnings Ratio (X) 13.4 10.8 11.2 8.1 7.6 Price /Earnings Growth (X) 1.1 0.8 N/A N/A 1.1 Gross Dividend per Share (Rs) 11.5 18.0* 12.3* 9.5 10.2 Dividend Payout Ratio (%) 89.4 124.1 115.1 90.0 90.0 Gross Dividend Yield (%) 6.7 11.5 10.3 11.1 11.8 Return on Equity (%) 62.5 81.5 65.0 61.2 61.7 Net Book Value per Share (Rs) 19.5 16.1 16.6 17.8 18.9 Market Price per Share (Rs) 172.5 157.0 119.0 85.8 85.8 GP Margin (%) 44.9 46.9 42.9 39.9 39.2 Note: Valuations are based on recurring EPS, Adj. for Capital Issues (if any); Historic Ratios are based on Y/E MPS *Includes one off dividends Source: CT CLSA LLUB ASPI

Chevron Lubricants Lanka - CT CLSA · o As per the Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka 2016 annual report, LLUB’s market share stood at ~45% at end 2016 (vs. 48% at end 2015),

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Page 1: Chevron Lubricants Lanka - CT CLSA · o As per the Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka 2016 annual report, LLUB’s market share stood at ~45% at end 2016 (vs. 48% at end 2015),

40

60

80

100

120

1-Jun-17 30-Nov-17 31-May-181-Jun-18

Shares in Issue (mn) 240.0

Market Cap (US$ mn) 132.0

Estimated Free Float (%) 49.0

3M Avg Daily Volume 100,043

3M Avg Daily Turnover (US$) 60,153

12M High / Low (Rs) 169.0 / 85.5

3M / 12M Price Change (%) -22.9 / -48.9

Chevron Lubricants Lanka

LLUB – Rs.85.8

CT CLSA SECURITIES (PVT) LIMITED | A Member of the Colombo Stock Exchange

Subecca Sothylingam Key Highlights Email : [email protected] Phone : +94 11 2552290 1Q2018 Results Update

LLUB reported a 1Q2018 Net Profit (NP) of Rs.697mn (-15% YoY though +27% QoQ), broadly in

line with our expectations, amid a decline in revenue subsequent to the +12% upward product price revision implemented in April 2017 and continued erosion in Gross Profit margin

LLUB’s Net Profit forecast broadly maintained at Rs.2,532mn for 2018E (-1% YoY), with earnings

impacted by prevailing high base oil prices and toughening industry competition. Meanwhile 2019E Net Profit forecast revised down by -3% to Rs.2,711mn (+7% YoY – off a low base), owing to a downward revision in GP Margin expectations, resulting from an upward momentum in base oil prices

LLUB share price has underperformed the broader market, declining -23% and -49% during the

past three months and twelve months respectively (vs. the ASI’s declining of -2% and -4% respectively over the same period) - the share touched a eleven year low of Rs.85.5 on 31 May 2018 - amid mounting concerns of financial slowdown on the back of the company losing market share

Our current DCF valuation for LLUB (cost of Equity 17.3) suggests a value of Rs.83.5 per share,

which is at a ~3% discount to its current market price. Applying different discount rates (cost of equity ranging from 14.3-20.3) suggest a valuation range of Rs.75.7-Rs.92.2 per share

Further on our current estimates, LLUB trades at a eleven year low PER of 8.1X 2018E and 7.6X

2019E, offering gross dividend yields of ~11-12% for both 2018E and 2019E Amid the steep share price declines, the bulk of the negatives seem to have already been priced

in. Nevertheless, the near term pressure on earnings, primarily due to the anticipated margin erosion given the rise in global oil prices and LLUB being limited to pass on any major cost hikes due to stiffening industry competition, may remain an overhang on the share. Meanwhile, any renewed efforts by the company to successfully gain market share and improve its financial performance may bode well for the share, particularly given the prevailing low valuations

Key Trading Information

Sri Lanka

Manufacturing

01 June 2018

Relative Share Price Movement (%)

LLUB: Valuation Ratios

Financials - Year to 31 December 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E

Net Revenue (Rs mn) 11,564 12,089 11,052 12,213 13,179

Net Profit (Rs mn) 3,088 3,481 2,554 2,532 2,711

Earnings per Share (Rs) 12.9 14.5 10.6 10.5 11.3

Earnings per Share Growth (%) 12.4 12.7 -26.7 -0.9 7.1

Price /Earnings Ratio (X) 13.4 10.8 11.2 8.1 7.6

Price /Earnings Growth (X) 1.1 0.8 N/A N/A 1.1

Gross Dividend per Share (Rs) 11.5 18.0* 12.3* 9.5 10.2

Dividend Payout Ratio (%) 89.4 124.1 115.1 90.0 90.0

Gross Dividend Yield (%) 6.7 11.5 10.3 11.1 11.8

Return on Equity (%) 62.5 81.5 65.0 61.2 61.7

Net Book Value per Share (Rs) 19.5 16.1 16.6 17.8 18.9

Market Price per Share (Rs) 172.5 157.0 119.0 85.8 85.8

GP Margin (%) 44.9 46.9 42.9 39.9 39.2

Note: Valuations are based on recurring EPS, Adj. for Capital Issues (if any); Historic Ratios are based on Y/E MPS *Includes one off dividends

Source: CT CLSA

LLUB

ASPI

Page 2: Chevron Lubricants Lanka - CT CLSA · o As per the Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka 2016 annual report, LLUB’s market share stood at ~45% at end 2016 (vs. 48% at end 2015),

EQUITY REPORT TITLE | Date A CT HOLDINGS GROUP AND CLSA GROUP COMPANY 2

The Business Chevron Lubricants Lanka (LLUB) is a 51% owned subsidiary of Chevron Ceylon Ltd, which in turn is a subsidiary of the US – based MNC, Chevron Corporation Inc. LLUB is in the business of importing, producing and marketing lubricants, greases, brake fluid and specialty products and is the market leader in the local lubricants sector (comprising 13 players as at 31 March 2018) with a ~45% market share as at end 2016 (estimated market share of ~44% in 2017). LLUB is currently one of the only three players with local blending facilities. Further LLUB exports finished goods to Maldives, Bangladesh and Pakistan (~10% of total revenue).

Recent Financial Performance LLUB reported a 1Q2018 Net Profit (NP) of Rs.697mn (-15% YoY though +27% QoQ), broadly in line with our expectations, amid a decline in revenue subsequent to the +12% upward product price revision implemented in April 2017 and continued erosion in Gross Profit margin

Quarterly Highlights 1Q2018 revenue declined -4% YoY to Rs. 2,979mn (though +6% QoQ – off a low

base), amidst YoY pressure on sales volumes subsequent to the +12% upward product price revision implemented in April 2017, coupled with ~24% price discounts given on bulk oils (210 liter drums)

LLUB’s total volumes estimated to have declined ~4% YoY in 1Q2018, attributable to a decline in

Retail segment volumes (80% of total revenue) subsequent to the +12% price increase and stiffening market competition.

Meanwhile, Industrial segment (20% of total revenue) volumes remained flat YoY, despite the

company loosing select annual tenders, owing to the increased supplies to rubber manufacturing

Chevron Lubricants Lanka

1Q2018 NP -15% YoY amid a decline in revenue and

continued margin erosion

Key Figures & Ratios 4Q2017 1Q2017 1Q2018 % YoY % QoQ 2016 2017 % YoY

Revenue (Rs mn) 2,807 3,118 2,979 -4.4 6.2 12,089 11,052 -8.6

Gross Profit (Rs mn) 1,122 1,402 1,264 -9.8 12.7 5,671 4,741 -16.4

EBIT (Rs mn) 737 1,089 961 -11.7 30.4 4,515 3,406 -24.6

Net Finance Income (Rs mn)

22 29 10 -67.2 -55.6 187 90 -52.0

Net Profit (Rs mn) 549 822 697 -15.1 27.0 3,481 2,554 -26.7

Earnings per Share (Rs) 2.3 3.4 2.9 -15.1 27.0 14.5 10.6 -26.7

GP Margin (%) 40.0 45.0 42.4 -2.5 2.5 46.9 42.9 -4.0

EBIT Margin (%) 26.3 34.9 32.3 -2.7 6.0 37.4 30.8 -6.5

NP Margin (%) 19.6 26.4 23.4 -3.0 3.8 28.8 23.1 -5.7

Opex as a % of Revenue (%)

13.7 10.2 10.2 0.0 -3.5 9.6 12.1 2.5

Effective Tax Rate (%) 27.6 26.5 28.1 1.7 0.6 26.0 27.0 1.0

Net Cash (Debt) Position (Rs mn)

25 1,904 -119 >-100.0 >-100.0 1,910 25 -98.7

Capex (Rs mn) 95.1 0.4 0.6 50.9 -99.4 91.3 95.1 4.2

Note: Valuations and ratios on a recurring basis

Est. Volume (mn litres) & Variance YoY (%) Revenue (Rs mn) & Variance YoY (%)

Source: CT CLSA

Source: Company Interims

Volumes declined an estimated ~4% YoY in 1Q2018

-16

-8

0

8

16

6

7

8

9

10

1Q2016 3Q2016 1Q2017 3Q2017 1Q2018

Est Volume - LHS Var YoY

-20

-10

0

10

20

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1Q2016 3Q2016 1Q2017 3Q2017 1Q2018

Revenue - LHS Var YoY

Page 3: Chevron Lubricants Lanka - CT CLSA · o As per the Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka 2016 annual report, LLUB’s market share stood at ~45% at end 2016 (vs. 48% at end 2015),

EQUITY REPORT TITLE | Date CT CLSA SECURITIES (PVT) LIMITED | A Member of the Colombo Stock Exchange 3

Quarterly Highlights

Operating conditions have toughened for LLUB in recent quarters with its market share coming under pressure, primarily due to price undercutting by competitors

o As per the Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka 2016 annual report, LLUB’s market share

stood at ~45% at end 2016 (vs. 48% at end 2015), despite volume growth of ~6% during the year, on the back of overall market growth of ~11%. LLUB’s main competitor Lanka Indian Oil Company (LIOC) gained nearly +2% of the market during the same period, growing volumes by +23% YoY (reaching ~16% market share)

o LLUB’s local market share forecast estimated at ~43% by end 2018E (vs. estimated market

share of ~44% in 2017)

LLUB exports its finished products to Bangladesh, Maldives and Pakistan - estimated to have contributed ~10% to 1Q2018 topline (of which 80% to Bangladesh and 20% to Maldives) o As per management, export earnings had declined marginally QoQ during 1Q2018, amidst

increased stock up experienced in the export markets, owing to a discount promotion given in 4Q2017

o Retail to Industrial revenue split in Bangladesh is now 50 : 50, with LLUB holding an estimated ~4% total market share. Meanwhile LLUB holds ~15% market share in Maldives

o Further, LLUB does not expect Pakistan to be a major export revenue contributor in the

near term (primarily comprising intercompany sales) LLUB’s gross margin eroded to 42.4% in 1Q2018 (vs. 45.0% in 1Q2017), primarily due

to the rising global base oil prices amid tight base oil supply. In 1Q2018, average base oil prices rose +10% YoY to US$2.67 per gallon. o Margins were also placed under pressure, owing to the ongoing currency depreciation ( local

currency depreciated -2.7% YoY to Rs.154.8 per US$ during the quarter) coupled with LLUB offering a ~24% discount on selected five key oil drum SKUs - oil drum volumes are assumed to have accounted for nearly 35% of LLUB’s total volumes – provisions of discounts currently ongoing

o Meanwhile, GP margin increased 245 bps QoQ, owing to increased exposure to higher margin packed products in the Retail segment

EBIT margin declined to 32.3% in 1Q2018 (vs. 34.9% in 1Q2017), despite a -4% YoY decline in Operating expenses

o As per LLUB, the -4% YoY decline in distributional expenses and the -5% YoY decline in

administrative expenses are due to a timing difference of recognising the expenses

LLUB reported a net debt position of Rs.119mn as at 31 March 2018 (vs. a net cash position of Rs.1,904mn as at 31 March 2017) – first debt position recorded since 4Q2007. Consequently, net finance income declined -67% YoY to Rs.10mn in 1Q2018

o On 27 March 2018, LLUB announced a first interim dividend of Rs.2.25 – at a ~78%

dividend payout ; XD: 10/05/2018 and PD: 21/05/2018

Chevron Lubricants Lanka

50

55

60

65

40

45

50

55

60

65

2010 2012 2014 2016

LLUB Market Share - LHS

Market Volume (mn litres)

LLUB Market Share (%) and Overall Market Volumes (mn litres)

Key Player Market Share (%)

57%

11%

8%

7% 4%

12%

45%

16%

8%

6%

5%

19%

Chevron Lubricants Lanka

Indian Oil Corporation

Ceylon Petroleum Corporation

ExxonMobil Asia Pacific

Laugfs Holdings

Others

2016

2011

Source: Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka

Note : As per latest data available

Gross Profit (Rs mn) and GP Margin (%) Motiva Gulf Coast Type II 110 viscosity (US$/gal)

Source: Bloomberg Net Cash (Debt) per share (Rs) and YoY (%)

35

40

45

50

900

1,200

1,500

1,800

1Q2016 3Q2016 1Q2017 3Q2017 1Q2018

Gross Profit - LHS GP Margin (%)

-110

-80

-50

-20

10

40

-3

0

3

6

9

12

Net Cash per share - LHSVar YoY (%)

Source: Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.8

May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18

Page 4: Chevron Lubricants Lanka - CT CLSA · o As per the Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka 2016 annual report, LLUB’s market share stood at ~45% at end 2016 (vs. 48% at end 2015),

EQUITY REPORT TITLE | Date A CT HOLDINGS GROUP AND CLSA GROUP COMPANY 4

Chevron Lubricants Lanka

2018E Net Profit forecast broadly maintained

Outlook & Valuations LLUB’s Net Profit forecast broadly maintained at Rs.2,532mn for 2018E (-1% YoY),

with earnings impacted by prevailing high base oil prices and toughening industry competition. Meanwhile 2019E Net Profit forecast revised down by -3% to Rs.2,711mn (+7% YoY – off a low base), owing to a downward revision in GP Margin expectations, resulting from an upward momentum in base oil prices

Revenue forecast broadly maintained at Rs.12,213mn for 2018E (+11% YoY, off a low base) and

Rs.13,179mn for 2019E (+8% YoY), owing to an anticipated rise in retail sector volumes

o Sales volumes forecast broadly maintained at 29mn litres for 2018E (+6% YoY, vs. -10% YoY in 2017) and at 30mn for 2019E, (+2% YoY), primarily due to the anticipated increase in retail sector volume amidst the discounted drum sales

o LLUB’s average volume weighted price per litre is forecast at Rs.381 for 2018E (broadly

unchanged YoY). Meanwhile 2019E volume weighted price per litre forecast revised down by 1% to Rs.400 (+5% YoY), due to the inability of LLUB to pass on any cost hikes owing to the stiffening industry competition. Yet a relatively modest price increase is factored in for 2019E, amid rising base oil prices

o LLUB’s local market share forecast to decline to ~43% by end 2018E (vs. estimated

market share of ~44.% in 2017), owing to increasing market competition. The market share is expected to remain at ~43% in 2019E

o No material impact is anticipated from the planned opening of Hyrax’s new blending plant in

2018 - fourth local blending plant – as the brand has been already in existence in the market. Hyrax market share stood at 8% in 2016

o Export sales volumes are expected to increase, with more emphasis on Bangladesh, given

its upside growth potential. Margins on exports are however lower than those of domestic sales, given high competition from Bangladesh’s domestic blenders who enjoy a ~35% tax advantage over imported lubricants

GP margin forecast broadly maintained at 39.9% for 2018E (vs. 42.9% in 2017), whilst 2019E GP margin revised down by 125 bps to 39.2% for 2019E, owing to upward momentum in base oil prices coupled with anticipated currency depreciation. Higher import related costs stemming from currency depreciation are expected to be partially absorbed by rising export sales

o The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects a +17% YoY rise in the price of

Brent crude, to US$71/bbl for 2018E. Base oil prices are expected to adjust accordingly, with a two to three month lag. The LKR is expected to depreciate ~3.0% in 2018E, to Rs.157.0 and depreciate ~4.8% in 2019E to Rs.164.5

EBIT margin forecasts broadly maintained at 28.6% for 2018E (vs. 30.8% in 2017), whilst revise down by 88bps to 28.4% for 2019E, in line with the reduction in gross margins and greater than anticipated promotion and distribution expenditure

Effective Tax Rate (ETR) set at 28% for both 2018E and 2019E (vs. 27.0% in 2017); inline with

the general tax rate of 28% applicable to manufacturing sector. The profits on exports sales are also taxed at 28% (vs. previous concessionary rate of 12% for export sales)

On 24 April 2018, the Petroleum Resources Development Ministry, along with the Public Utilities

Commission of Sri Lanka (PUCSL) announced plans to liberalise Sri Lanka’s lubricant industry by issuing import licenses to local manufacturers, who require lubricants in small quantities, and to issue licenses to import lubricants, according to recommendations of original engine manufacturers

o Meanwhile, the likelihood of any new entrants in short term is low, given the fact that major oil players (with over 20 global brands) being already present in Sri Lanka. The lubricant market has been open to new players since 2016 but no new players have entered into the market, due to the limited scope of growth in the local lubricant market and high competition

Sales volumes forecast broadly maintained at 29mn litres for 2018E

EIA projects a +17% YoY rise in the price of Brent crude for 2018E

Proposal Impact Analysis

Issuing licenses to import lubricants according to recommendations of original engine manufacturers

Expected to negatively impact LLUB due to rising competition

Issuance of import license to local manufacturers

Expected to have no material impact since the impost quantities are anticipated to be less

Page 5: Chevron Lubricants Lanka - CT CLSA · o As per the Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka 2016 annual report, LLUB’s market share stood at ~45% at end 2016 (vs. 48% at end 2015),

EQUITY REPORT TITLE | Date CT CLSA SECURITIES (PVT) LIMITED | A Member of the Colombo Stock Exchange 5

Outlook & Valuations LLUB on 23 May 2018 announced that Ms. Rochna Kaul, General manager of Chevron Lubricants

Asia will take over the duties of CEO of LLUB in an acting capacity after the resignation of Mr.Kishu Gomes w.e.f 22 May 2018

LLUB share price has underperformed the broader market, declining -23% and -49% during the

past three months and twelve months respectively (vs. the ASI’s declining of -2% and -4% respectively over the same period) - the share touched a eleven year low of Rs.85.5 on 31 May 2018 - amid mounting concerns of financial slowdown on the back of the company losing market share

Our current DCF valuation for LLUB (cost of Equity 17.3) suggests a value of Rs.83.5 per share,

which is at a ~3% discount to its current market price. Applying different discount rates (cost of equity ranging from 14.3-20.3) suggest a valuation range of Rs.75.7-Rs.92.2 per share (Refer: Sensitivity Analysis–pg 05)

Further on our current estimates, LLUB trades at a eleven year low PER of 8.1X 2018E and 7.6X

2019E, offering gross dividend yields of ~11-12% for both 2018E and 2019E Amid the steep share price declines, the bulk of the negatives seem to have already been priced

in. Nevertheless, the near term pressure on earnings, primarily due to the anticipated margin erosion given the rise in global oil prices and LLUB being limited to pass on any major cost hikes due to stiffening industry competition, may remain an overhang on the share. Meanwhile, any renewed efforts by the company to successfully gain market share and improve its financial performance may bode well for the share, particularly given the prevailing low valuations

Chevron Lubricants Lanka

Key Listed MNCs in Sri Lanka LLUB CTC NEST

Market Price per Share (Rs) 85.8 1,070.0 1,674.5

Est. Free Float (%) 49.0 15.9 9.2

3M Avg Daily Turnover (US$) 60,153 12,839 46,222

Price / Earnings Ratio (X) 8.1 12.8 21.8

Return on Equity (%) 61.2 342.8 77.5

Gross Dividend per Share (Rs) 9.5 83.9 57.5

Gross Dividend Yield (%) 11.1 7.8 3.4

EPS Growth (%) -0.9 7.6 13.6

Relative 2018E Valuations

Payout Ratio (%) and Gross Dividend Yield (%)

6

8

10

12

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

2015 2016 2017 2018E2019E

Gross Dividend Yield (%)Payout Ratio (%) - LHS

Risk Free Rate (%) 10.5

Market Risk Premium (%) 6.5

Beta (X) 1.04

Company Cost of Equity (%) 17.3

Source: CT CLSA & Bloomberg

Cost of Equity (%) 14.3 15.3 16.3 17.3 18.3 19.3 20.3

Per Share Price (Rs) 92.2 89.2 86.2 83.5 80.7 78.2 75.7

Source: CT CLSA

DCF: Cost of Capital Assumptions

Sensitivity Analysis

LLUB: TTM PER (X) : 2014 – 2018YTD

8

12

16

20

Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18

Source: CT CLSA

Source: CT CLSA

Page 6: Chevron Lubricants Lanka - CT CLSA · o As per the Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka 2016 annual report, LLUB’s market share stood at ~45% at end 2016 (vs. 48% at end 2015),

EQUITY REPORT TITLE | Date A CT HOLDINGS GROUP AND CLSA GROUP COMPANY 6

No Name No. of

Shares %

Change (Shares)*

Comment

1 Chevron Ceylon Limited 122,400,000 51.0 -

2 Renuka Hotels Limited 5,201,918 2.2 -

3 Coeli Sicav I- Frontier Markets Fund 4,465,502 1.9 +290,000

4 Blackrock Frontiers Investment Trust PLC 4,443,434 1.9 -

5 Neon Liberty Emerging Markets Fund LP 4,177,352 1.7 -

6 Verdipapirondet Odin Emerging 3,444,194 1.4 -

7 Cargo Boat Development Company Ltd 3,400,000 1.4 -

8 Sri Lanka Insurance Corporation – Life Fund 2,900,000 1.2 - GoSL Related Party

9 Global Frontier Markets 2,770,952 1.2 - New Entrant to Top 20

10 Frontaura Global Frontier Fund LLC 2,769,163 1.2 -

11 Aberdeen Institutional Commingled Funds LLC

2,439,508 1.0 -84,215

12 Frontier Market Opportunities Master FD, L.P

2,076,963 0.9 -

13 Crescent Launderers & Dry Cleaners (Pvt) Ltd

2,000,000 0.8 -

14 Parametric Emerging Markets Fund 1,821,700 0.8 -

15 Frank Russel Trust Company Comingled Benefit Funds Trust GNA-6QH3

1,809,078 0.8 -

16 Citigroup Global Markets Limited Agency Trading Prop Securities A/C

1,754,570 0.7 -

17 Bank of Ceylon - No 2 A/C 1,688,823 0.7 -41,154 GoSL Related Party

18 Florida Retirement System 1,646,876 0.7 -

19 Deutsche Bank AG- National Equity fund 1,500,000 0.6 -

20 Parametric Tax- Managed Emerging Markets Fund

1,378,614 0.6 New Entrant to Top 20

Total 174,088,647 72.5

Major Shareholder Movements Major Shareholder Movements as at 31 March 2018

*Change Since 31 Dec 2017 Exited Top 20 – Name and Number of shares held;

Russell Investments Institutional Funds Public Limited Company - 1,635,690 shares, New Emerging Markets Aktier – 1,400,870 shares

Chevron Lubricants Lanka

(Rs mn) 2017 2018E^ 2018E % YoY 2019E^ 2019E % YoY

Net Revenue 11,052 12,189 12,213 10.5 13,075 13,179 7.9

Cost of Sales -6,312 -7,302 -7,343 16.3 -7,782 -8,006 9.0

Gross Profit 4,741 4,887 4,870 2.7 5,293 5,173 6.2

Distribution Costs -659 -679 -679 3.0 -713 -699 3.0

Administrative Expenses -681 -709 -709 4.0 -751 -737 4.0

EBIT 3,406 3,506 3,489 2.4 3,836 3,746 7.4

Net Finance Income 90 14 27 -70.0 33 19 -30.0

PBT 3,496 3,521 3,516 0.6 3,868 3,765 7.1

Tax -942 -986 -985 4.5 -1,083 -1,054 7.1

Net Profit 2,554 2,535 2,532 -0.9 2,785 2,711 7.1

Margins (%)

GP Margin 42.9 40.1 39.9 -3.0 40.5 39.2 -0.6

EBIT Margin 30.8 28.8 28.6 -2.2 29.3 28.4 -0.1

Effective Tax Rate (%) 27.0 28.0 28.0 -1.0 28.0 28.0 0.0

Forecast Financials LLUB: Summary Income Statement

Source: CT CLSA ^ Previous forecast

Page 7: Chevron Lubricants Lanka - CT CLSA · o As per the Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka 2016 annual report, LLUB’s market share stood at ~45% at end 2016 (vs. 48% at end 2015),

EQUITY REPORT TITLE | Date CT CLSA SECURITIES (PVT) LIMITED | A Member of the Colombo Stock Exchange 7

Trading & Sales

Lasantha Iddamalgoda [email protected] +94 11 255 2295 +94 77 778 2103 Dyan Morris [email protected] +94 11 255 2320 +94 77 722 4951 Manura Hemachandra [email protected] +94 77 261 4797 Rosco Todd [email protected] +94 77 262 7233 Dhammika de Silva [email protected] +94 77 356 2699

Arusha Michael [email protected] +94 77 395 6765

Nuwan Madusanka [email protected] +94 76 858 9722 Ryan Jansz [email protected] +94 77 547 9233

CT CLSA SECURITIES (PVT) LTD A Member of the Colombo Stock Exchange

4-14 Majestic City, 10 Station Road, Colombo 4, Sri Lanka

General: +94 11 255 2290 to 2294 Facsimile: +94 11 255 2289 Email: [email protected] Web: www.ctclsa.lk

A CT HOLDINGS GROUP AND CLSA GROUP COMPANY

Disclaimer : This document has been prepared and issued by CT CLSA Securities (Pvt) Ltd. on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources, believed to be reliable. Whilst all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate and the opinions given are fair and reasonable, neither CT CLSA Securities (Pvt) Ltd. nor any director, officer or employee, shall in any way be responsible for the contents. CT CLSA Securities (Pvt) Ltd. may act as a Broker in the investments which are the subject of this document or in related investments and may have acted upon or used the information contained in this document, or the research or analysis on which it is based, before its publication. CT CLSA Securities (Pvt) Ltd., its directors, officers or employees may also have a position or be otherwise interested in the investments referred to in this document. This is not an offer to buy or sell the investments referred to in this document. It is not intended to provide professional, investment or any other type of advice or recommendation and does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual recipients. Before acting on any information in this publication/communication, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek your own professional advice, including tax advice. The markets in which CT CLSA Securities (Pvt) Ltd. operates may not have regulation governing conflict of interest over preparation and publication of research reports (including but not limited to disclosure of perceived or actual conflict of interest) as may be found in more developed markets. Please contact your investment advisor / analyst should you require further information over the relevant regulation and particular disclosure over perceived or actual conflict of interest.

Research

Sanjeewa Fernando [email protected] +94 77 742 7439 Chayanika Ranasinghe [email protected] +94 77 237 9731 Yasas Wijethunga [email protected] +94 77 053 2059 Shahan de Silva [email protected] +94 11 255 2290 Subecca Sothylingam [email protected] +94 11 255 2290 Shahana Kanagaratnam [email protected] +94 11 255 2290 Madhusha Sivanathan [email protected] +94 11 255 2290

Consultant / Sales

Rohan Fernando [email protected] +94 11 255 2297 +94 76 778 2101