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Jeff Donnelly
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Chasing Ancient Hurricanes in Oyster Pond and Beyond
2099 2099
Similar to COP 21
RCP8.5 RCP4.5
Temperatures will continue to warm
2099 2099
Similar to COP 21
RCP8.5 RCP4.5
Temperatures will continue to warm
How will warming impact tropical cyclone activity?
From Knutson et al., 2015 (Journal of Climate) RCP4.5
Models Indicate Increases in the Most Intense Storms
28% increase globally
42% increase in Atlantic
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
SS
T a
no
ma
ly (
C)
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature
Atlantic SST
Tierney et al. 2015
Atlantic SST
Tierney et al. 2015
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
SS
T a
no
ma
ly (
C)
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
AC
E
0
Hurricane Activity
Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature
Sedimentary Records of Hurricane Strikes
How has hurricane activity varied prehistorically?
Where paleotempestology got its start – Oyster Pond
Where paleotempestology got its start – Oyster Pond
Oyster Pond, Falmouth MA
My lab
Cumloden
Cedar Swamp
USGS
“[T]he high tides and storm waves of the 1944 hurricane washed completely over the basin,
and marine debris (Fucus and other seaweeds) still hangs in the bushes to a high-water mark
about four feet above present lake level.” Deevey, 1948 (American Journal of Science)
Oyster Pond, Falmouth MA
Oyster Pond, Falmouth MA
Sidescan sonar survey
Oyster Pond, Falmouth MA
Sidescan sonar survey
Oyster Pond, Falmouth MA
Sidescan sonar survey
Oyster Pond, Falmouth MA
Sidescan sonar survey
Oyster Pond, Falmouth MA
Sidescan sonar survey
Cedar Peat
till
0
0.01
TW
T (
s)
0.02
Oyster Pond, Falmouth MA
Subbottom sonar survey
Cedar Peat
laminated sediments
w/storm-induced layers
barrier
North South
Cedar Peat
till
0
0.01
TW
T (
s)
0.02
Oyster Pond, Falmouth MA
Subbottom sonar survey
Cedar Peat
laminated sediments
w/storm-induced layers
barrier
North South
3360+30
Cedar Peat
till
0
0.01
TW
T (
s)
0.02
Oyster Pond, Falmouth MA
Subbottom sonar survey
Cedar Peat
laminated sediments
w/storm-induced layers
barrier
North South
3360+30
Oyster Pond, Falmouth MA
% coarse (>63 um) 0 20 40 60 80 100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
De
pth
(cm
) Oyster Pond, Falmouth MA (Core 13)
% coarse (>63 um) 0 20 40 60 80 100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
De
pth
(cm
)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
0 20 40 60 80 100
% coarse
0 0.1
Cs-137 (Bq/g)
0.5
1959
1963
1954
0 40 80 120 160
Pb (ints)
onset of industrial
revolution ~1860
Oyster Pond, Falmouth MA (Core 13)
% coarse (>63 um) 0 20 40 60 80 100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
De
pth
(cm
)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
0 20 40 60 80 100
% coarse
Bob (1991)
Donna (1960)
1938
1944
Carol (1954)
0 0.1
Cs-137 (Bq/g)
0.5
1959
1963
1954
0 40 80 120 160
Pb (ints)
onset of industrial
revolution ~1860
Oyster Pond, Falmouth MA (Core 13)
% coarse (>63 um) 0 20 40 60 80 100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
De
pth
(cm
)
Bob (1991)
Donna (1960)
1938
1944 Carol (1954)
Oyster Pond, Falmouth MA (Core 13)
% coarse (>63 um) 0 20 40 60 80 100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
De
pth
(cm
)
Bob (1991)
Donna (1960)
1938
1944 Carol (1954)
Onset of European
clearance/agriculture ca. 1665
Oyster Pond, Falmouth MA (Core 13)
Jonathan Hatch and Isaac Robinson
build first houses in Falmouth 1661
% coarse (>63 um) 0 20 40 60 80 100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
De
pth
(cm
)
Bob (1991)
Donna (1960)
1938
1944 Carol (1954)
Onset of European
clearance/agriculture ca. 1665
Oyster Pond, Falmouth MA (Core 13)
Jonathan Hatch and Isaac Robinson
build first houses in Falmouth 1661
First maize (Zea) pollen indicates
Native American agriculture adjacent to the pond
% coarse (>63 um) 0 20 40 60 80 100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
De
pth
(cm
)
Bob (1991)
Donna (1960)
1938
1944 Carol (1954)
Onset of European
clearance/agriculture ca. 1665
1435-1480 CE
1520-1600 CE
1580-1655 CE (1635)
1545-1625 CE 1530-1610 CE
1670-1690 CE (1675)
1680-1710 CE
1785-1840 CE
Oyster Pond, Falmouth MA (Core 13)
First maize (Zea) pollen indicates
Native American agriculture adjacent to the pond
The 18th century was hyperactive?
% coarse (>63 um) 0 20 40 60 80 100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
De
pth
(cm
)
Bob (1991)
Donna (1960)
1938
1944 Carol (1954)
Onset of European
clearance/agriculture ca. 1665
1435-1480 CE
1520-1600 CE
1580-1655 CE (1635)
1545-1625 CE 1530-1610 CE
1670-1690 CE (1675)
1680-1710 CE
1785-1840 CE
Oyster Pond, Falmouth MA (Core 13)
First maize (Zea) pollen indicates
Native American agriculture adjacent to the pond
The 18th century was hyperactive?
Only two significant hurricanes in
the 18th century in 1727 and 1761!
% coarse (>63 um) 0 20 40 60 80 100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
De
pth
(cm
)
Bob (1991)
Donna (1960)
1938
1944 Carol (1954)
Onset of European
clearance/agriculture ca. 1665
1435-1480 CE
1520-1600 CE
1580-1655 CE (1635)
1545-1625 CE 1530-1610 CE
1670-1690 CE (1675)
1680-1710 CE
1785-1840 CE
Oyster Pond, Falmouth MA (Core 13)
First maize (Zea) pollen indicates
Native American agriculture adjacent to the pond
% coarse (>63 um) 0 20 40 60 80 100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
De
pth
(cm
)
Bob (1991)
Donna (1960)
1938
1944 Carol (1954)
Onset of European
clearance/agriculture ca. 1665
1435-1480 CE
1520-1600 CE
1580-1655 CE (1635)
1545-1625 CE 1530-1610 CE
1670-1690 CE (1675)
1680-1710 CE
1785-1840 CE
Oyster Pond, Falmouth MA (Core 13)
First maize (Zea) pollen indicates
Native American agriculture adjacent to the pond
So what’s going on?
% coarse (>63 um) 0 20 40 60 80 100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
De
pth
(cm
)
Bob (1991)
Donna (1960)
1938
1944 Carol (1954)
Onset of European
clearance/agriculture ca. 1665
1435-1480 CE
1520-1600 CE
1580-1655 CE (1635)
1545-1625 CE 1530-1610 CE
1670-1690 CE (1675)
1680-1710 CE
1785-1840 CE
Oyster Pond, Falmouth MA (Core 13)
First maize (Zea) pollen indicates
Native American agriculture adjacent to the pond
So what’s going on?
Emery (1969) documented an inlet proximal
to the southern basin of Oyster Pond existed
through the 18th and early 19th centuries.
% coarse (>63 um) 0 20 40 60 80 100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
De
pth
(cm
)
Bob (1991)
Donna (1960)
1938
1944 Carol (1954)
Onset of European
clearance/agriculture ca. 1665
1435-1480 CE
1520-1600 CE
1580-1655 CE (1635)
1545-1625 CE 1530-1610 CE
1670-1690 CE (1675)
1680-1710 CE
1785-1840 CE
Oyster Pond, Falmouth MA (Core 13)
First maize (Zea) pollen indicates
Native American agriculture adjacent to the pond
So what’s going on?
Emery (1969) documented an inlet proximal
to the southern basin of Oyster Pond existed
through the 18th and early 19th centuries.
That’s why there were oysters in Oyster Pond!
% coarse (>63 um) 0 20 40 60 80 100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
De
pth
(cm
)
Bob (1991)
Donna (1960)
1938
1944 Carol (1954)
Onset of European
clearance/agriculture ca. 1665
1435-1480 CE
1520-1600 CE
1580-1655 CE (1635)
1545-1625 CE 1530-1610 CE
1670-1690 CE (1675)
1680-1710 CE
1785-1840 CE
Oyster Pond, Falmouth MA (Core 13)
First maize (Zea) pollen indicates
Native American agriculture adjacent to the pond
So what’s going on?
Emery (1969) documented an inlet proximal
to the southern basin of Oyster Pond existed
through the 18th and early 19th centuries.
That’s why there were oysters in Oyster Pond!
The inlet may have formed in the 1675 hurricane
soon after European settlement.
% coarse (>63 um) 0 20 40 60 80 100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
De
pth
(cm
)
Bob (1991)
Donna (1960)
1938
1944 Carol (1954)
Onset of European
clearance/agriculture ca. 1665
1435-1480 CE
1520-1600 CE
1580-1655 CE (1635)
1545-1625 CE 1530-1610 CE
1670-1690 CE (1675)
1680-1710 CE
1785-1840 CE
Oyster Pond, Falmouth MA (Core 13)
First maize (Zea) pollen indicates
Native American agriculture adjacent to the pond
So what’s going on?
Emery (1969) documented an inlet proximal
to the southern basin of Oyster Pond existed
through the 18th and early 19th centuries.
That’s why there were oysters in Oyster Pond!
The inlet may have formed in the 1675 hurricane
soon after European settlement.
The presence of the inlet likely greatly increased
the sensitivity of the site to the transport of sand
to the basin during the 18th and first half of
the 19th centuries.
Inlet shown on charts as late as 1863. Emery postulated that gradual infilling of the inlet
by longshore transport closed off the pond resulting in freshening and the decline of
oysters.
Oyster Pond, Falmouth MA (Core 13)
So if the intermittent presence of inlets (a dynamic barrier) can significantly alter the
sensitivity of a site to storm-induced sedimentation, how are we to reconstruct a reliable
history of past hurricane strikes?
Oyster Pond, Falmouth MA (Core 13)
Perhaps a site a further from the barrier?
Salt Pond, Falmouth MA
Salt Pond Reconstruction
≥D99
Salt Pond Reconstruction
Donnelly et al., 2015
Earth’s Future
Mattapoisett Marsh
Salt Pond Reconstruction
Salt Pond Reconstruction
Thatchpoint Bluehole
Climate Forcing
Climate Forcing
Climate Forcing
• How has hurricane activity varied prehistorically?
Some answers
• How has hurricane activity varied prehistorically?
Statistically significant variability in intense hurricane
activity has occurred over the last few millennia.
Some answers
• How has hurricane activity varied prehistorically?
Statistically significant variability in intense hurricane
activity has occurred over the last few millennia.
Many prehistorical intervals of heightened activity have far
exceeded historical levels of activity.
Some answers
• How has hurricane activity varied prehistorically?
Statistically significant variability in intense hurricane
activity has occurred over the last few millennia.
Many prehistorical intervals of heightened activity have far
exceeded historical levels of activity.
Some evidence for regional coherency, which suggests
regional scale forcings are likely important.
Some answers
Remaining questions
Remaining questions
• What are the drivers of changes in hurricane activity?
What climatic forcings combined to yield intervals of
hurricane hyperactivity in the past?
Remaining questions
• What are the drivers of changes in hurricane activity?
What climatic forcings combined to yield intervals of
hurricane hyperactivity in the past?
• Is the future climate likely to also yield similar climate states?
Remaining questions
• What are the drivers of changes in hurricane activity?
What climatic forcings combined to yield intervals of
hurricane hyperactivity in the past?
• Is the future climate likely to also yield similar climate states?
• Does the maximum intensity of hurricanes change with climate
change?
Remaining questions
• What are the drivers of changes in hurricane activity?
What climatic forcings combined to yield intervals of
hurricane hyperactivity in the past?
• Is the future climate likely to also yield similar climate states?
• Does the maximum intensity of hurricanes change with climate
change?
• What are the implications of changes in hurricane activity for
coastal landforms, ecosystems, and humanity?
Final Point
The negative impacts of future hurricane activity will be
greatly exacerbated by continuing sea-level rise and
coastal population growth, regardless of whether or not
we experience significant increases in hurricane landfalls.
Thank you!
Further Reading:
Early American Hurricanes, D.M. Ludlum
A Wind to Shake the World, E.S. Allen
Sudden Sea: The Great Hurricane of 1938, R. Scotti
Issac’s Storm, Erik Larson
Also checkout episode 2 of Years of Living Dangerously
on National Geographic Channel, NOVA in summer 2017,
and www.whoi.edu/science/GG/coastal
If the 1635 hurricane struck today
1938
1869
1954 1960 1944
Historical Northeast US Hurricanes
Red = cat 3
Black = cat 1 and 2
1938
1869
1954 1960 1944
Historical Northeast US Hurricanes
Red = cat 3
Black = cat 1 and 2
John Winthrop (Governor of Massachusetts Bay Colony) “The tide rose at Narragansett fourteen feet higher than ordinary, and drowned eight Indians flying from their wigwams”
William Bradford (Governor of Plymouth Colony) “…a mighty storm of wind and rain as none living in these parts, either English or Indians ever saw” “It caused the sea to swell to the south wind of this place above 20 foot right up and down, and made many of the Indians to climb into trees for their safety” “It blew down many hundred thousands of trees, turning up the stronger by the roots and breaking the higher pine trees off in the middle”
Storm surge from the Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635
Storm surge from the Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635
1815
1954 1938
Thank you! Further Reading:
Early American Hurricanes, D.M. Ludlum
A Wind to Shake the World, E.S. Allen
Sudden Sea: The Great Hurricane of 1938, R.A. Scotti
Issac’s Storm, Erik Larson
Also checkout episode 2 of Years of Living Dangerously
on National Geographic Channel, NOVA in summer 2017,
and www.whoi.edu/science/GG/coastal
Providence, RI
What if the1635 hurricane hit today?
Falmouth
3.6 m of inundation
% coarse (>63 um) 0 20 40 60 80 100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
De
pth
(cm
)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
0 20 40 60 80 100
% coarse
Bob (1991)
Donna (1960)
1938
1944
Carol (1954)
0 0.1
Cs-137 (Bq/g)
0.5
1959
1963
1954
0 40 80 120 160
Pb (ints)
onset of industrial
revolution ~1860
Onset of European
clearance/agriculture ca. 1665
1435-1480 CE
1520-1600 CE
1580-1655 CE (1635)
1545-1625 CE 1530-1610 CE
1670-1690 CE (1675)
1680-1710 CE
1785-1840 CE
Only two significant hurricanes in the 18th century in 1727 and 1761
Oyster Pond, Falmouth MA (Core 13)
From Knutson et al., 2015 (Journal of Climate) RCP4.5
What Might the Future Hold?
28% increase globally
42% increase in Atlantic
Historical record for some locations goes back much further
Charleston, SC Settled 1663
New York, NY Settled 1624
Charleston hurricanes
Historical Hurricanes
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
Charleston hurricanes
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
Hugo (1989)
Historical Hurricanes
Charleston hurricanes
Historical Hurricanes
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
The Great Hurricane of 1752 (September 14)
“The town was likewise overflowed, the tide or sea having rose Ten feet above
the high-water mark at spring tides…”
“All our roads are so filled with trees blown and broke down…”
Charleston hurricanes
Historical Hurricanes
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
The Spanish Repulse Hurricane of 1686 (September 4)
Thwarted Spanish Invasion from Saint Augustine
“All the ships and vessels in the road and harbors were driven up on land…”
“In some places for 3 or 4 miles together there is scarce one great tree standing.”
“The Indians told the English that they knew of one that raised the water over the
tops of trees where the town now stands.”
Charleston hurricanes
NYC hurricanes
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
Historical Hurricanes
Charleston hurricanes
NYC hurricanes
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
Historical Hurricanes
1821 Hurricane
RMW = 46 km
Intensity = 51 m/s (115 MPH)
Charleston hurricanes
NYC hurricanes
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
Historical Hurricanes
1821 Hurricane William C. Redfield
1789-1857
RMW = 46 km
Intensity = 51 m/s (115 MPH)
Charleston hurricanes
NYC hurricanes
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
Historical Hurricanes
1821 Hurricane William C. Redfield
1789-1857
RMW = 46 km
Intensity = 51 m/s (115 MPH)
Alfred C. Redfield
1890-1983
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
SS
T a
no
ma
ly (
C)
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
Charleston hurricanes
NYC hurricanes
Historical Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature
Atlantic SST
Tierney et al. 2015
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
SS
T a
no
ma
ly (
C)
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
Charleston hurricanes
NYC hurricanes
Historical Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature
Atlantic SST
Tierney et al. 2015
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
SS
T a
no
ma
ly (
C)
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
Charleston hurricanes
NYC hurricanes
17/188 years 14/144 years
Historical Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temperature
Atlantic SST
Tierney et al. 2015
Hurricane Sandy 1821 Hurricane
1821 Hurricane vs. Sandy
predicted tide
surge+tide
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Wa
ter le
ve
l rela
tive
to m
ea
n s
ea
leve
l in 1
82
1 (m
) 0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 24:00
Time October 29, 2012
predicted tide
surge+tide
Wate
r level re
lativ
e to
mean
sea le
vel in
2012
(m)
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 24:00
Time September 3, 1821
1821 Sandy
1821 Hurricane vs. Sandy in NYC
0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 24:00
Time October 29, 2012
predicted tide
surge+tide
Wate
r level re
lativ
e to
mean
sea le
vel in
2012
(m)
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
predicted tide
surge+tide
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Wa
ter le
ve
l rela
tive
to m
ea
n s
ea
leve
l in 1
82
1 (m
) 0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 24:00
Time September 3, 1821
1821
~4 m (13 feet) of surge Sandy
~2.75 m (9 feet) of surge
1821 Hurricane vs. Sandy in NYC
Why so much damage from Sandy?
Future home of
Atlantic City (ca. 1833)
today
Why so much damage from Sandy?
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
1000000
Po
pu
latio
n
Year
1893 1821
Source: New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development
Population growth
in NJ coastal counties
Atlantic
Cape May
Middlesex
Monmouth
Ocean
Why so much damage from Sandy?
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
Charleston County, SC Population
Popula
tion
Year CE
19
01
1
90
6
19
11
19
16
1
92
0
19
28
1
93
3
19
36
1
94
1
19
44
1
94
7
19
50
1
95
3
19
56
1
95
9
19
62
1
96
5
19
68
1
97
1
19
74
1
97
7
19
80
1
98
3
19
86
1
98
9
19
92
1
99
5
19
98
2
00
1
20
04
year
1900-2013 US Hurricane Damage in 2005 USD
From Pielke et al., 2008
0
50
100
150
200
Da
ma
ge
(billio
ns o
f 20
05
US
D)
19
01
1
90
6
19
11
19
16
1
92
0
19
28
1
93
3
19
36
1
94
1
19
44
1
94
7
19
50
1
95
3
19
56
1
95
9
19
62
1
96
5
19
68
1
97
1
19
74
1
97
7
19
80
1
98
3
19
86
1
98
9
19
92
1
99
5
19
98
2
00
1
20
04
year
1900-2013 US Hurricane Damage in 2005 USD
But what if these storms were to strike today?
From Pielke et al., 2008
0
50
100
150
200
Da
ma
ge
(billio
ns o
f 20
05
US
D)
19
01
1
90
6
19
11
19
16
1
92
0
19
28
1
93
3
19
36
1
94
1
19
44
1
94
7
19
50
1
95
3
19
56
1
95
9
19
62
1
96
5
19
68
1
97
1
19
74
1
97
7
19
80
1
98
3
19
86
1
98
9
19
92
1
99
5
19
98
2
00
1
20
04
year
1900-2013 US Hurricane Damage in 2005 USD
Damage accounting for increased wealth and population
From Pielke et al., 2008
0
50
100
150
200
Da
ma
ge
(billio
ns o
f 20
05
US
D)
19
01
1
90
6
19
11
19
16
1
92
0
19
28
1
93
3
19
36
1
94
1
19
44
1
94
7
19
50
1
95
3
19
56
1
95
9
19
62
1
96
5
19
68
1
97
1
19
74
1
97
7
19
80
1
98
3
19
86
1
98
9
19
92
1
99
5
19
98
2
00
1
20
04
year
1900-2013 US Hurricane Damage in 2005 USD
Damage accounting for increased wealth and population
From Pielke et al., 2008
19
00
Ga
lve
sto
n
19
15
Ga
lve
sto
n
19
92
An
dre
w
19
38
Ne
w E
ng
lan
d
20
04
se
as
on
2
00
5 s
ea
so
n
Sa
nd
y
0
50
100
150
200
Da
ma
ge
(billio
ns o
f 20
05
US
D)
19
89
Hu
go
19
26
Mia
mi
19
01
1
90
6
19
11
19
16
1
92
0
19
28
1
93
3
19
36
1
94
1
19
44
1
94
7
19
50
1
95
3
19
56
1
95
9
19
62
1
96
5
19
68
1
97
1
19
74
1
97
7
19
80
1
98
3
19
86
1
98
9
19
92
1
99
5
19
98
2
00
1
20
04
year
1900-2013 US Hurricane Damage in 2005 USD
Damage accounting for increased wealth and population
From Pielke et al., 2008
19
00
Ga
lve
sto
n
19
15
Ga
lve
sto
n
19
26
Mia
mi
19
92
An
dre
w
19
38
Ne
w E
ng
lan
d
20
04
se
as
on
2
00
5 s
ea
so
n
Sa
nd
y
0
50
100
150
200
Da
ma
ge
(billio
ns o
f 20
05
US
D)
19
89
Hu
go
A Hurricane like 1821
would likely be more
than a 107 billion dollar
event (Swiss Re, 2014)
Sea-Level Rise
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
fee
t
From Kemp and Horton, 2013 Journal of Quaternary Science
Hurricane Records from Blue Holes
Hurricane Records from Blue Holes
Record from South Andros Bahamas
Hurricane Event Bed
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Eve
nts
pe
r d
ec
ad
e
Age CE
South Andros, Bahamas - Event Frequency (>6%)
Record from South Andros Bahamas
What we don’t know
• What are the drivers of changes in hurricane activity?
What climatic conditions combined to yield intervals of
hurricane hyperactivity in the past?
What we don’t know
• What are the drivers of changes in hurricane activity?
What climatic conditions combined to yield intervals of
hurricane hyperactivity in the past?
• Will our future climate also yield similar climate states?
What we don’t know
• What are the drivers of changes in hurricane activity?
What climatic conditions combined to yield intervals of
hurricane hyperactivity in the past?
• Will our future climate also yield similar climate states?
• Does the maximum intensity of hurricanes change with climate
change?
What we don’t know
• What are the drivers of changes in hurricane activity?
What climatic conditions combined to yield intervals of
hurricane hyperactivity in the past?
• Will our future climate also yield similar climate states?
• Does the maximum intensity of hurricanes change with climate
change?
• What are the implications of changes in hurricane activity for
coastal landforms, ecosystems, and humanity?
What we don’t know
Final Point
The negative impacts of future hurricane activity will be
greatly exacerbated by continuing sea-level rise and
coastal population growth, regardless of whether or not
we experience significant increases in hurricane landfalls.
Final Point
The negative impacts of future hurricane activity will be
greatly exacerbated by continuing sea-level rise and
coastal population growth, regardless of whether or not
we experience significant increases in hurricane landfalls.
The good news is we have many tools to mitigate
the impacts of hurricanes. And they no longer take us by
surprise because of our excellent forecasting and monitoring
abilities and capacity for communication.
Thank you!
Charleston ca. 1820
Further Reading:
Early American Hurricanes, D.M. Ludlum
A Wind to Shake the World, E.S. Allen
Sudden Sea: The Great Hurricane of 1938, R.A. Scotti
Issac’s Storm, Erik Larson
Also checkout episode 2 of Years of Living Dangerously
on National Geographic Channel, NOVA in summer 2017,
and www.whoi.edu/science/GG/coastal
YHC
1752 Charleston Hurricane Hindcast
Hurricane Hugo
Hurricane Sandy SLOSH Simulation
Historical Northeast US Hurricanes
Charleston hurricanes
NYC hurricanes
Historical Hurricanes
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
1938
1869
1954 1960 1944
Historical Northeast US Hurricanes
Red ≥ cat 3
Black = cat 1 and 2
1938
1869
1954 1960 1944
Historical Northeast US Hurricanes
Red ≥ cat 3
Black = cat 1 and 2
1821 Hurricane SLOSH Simulation
William C. Redfield
1789-1857
SLOSH input
Track: ~known
Translation speed: ~known (~65 km/hr (40 MPH))
Radius of maximum winds: ?
Intensity: ? Though some inferences
can be drawn from damage
RMW = 46 km
Intensity = 51 m/s (115 MPH)
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
SS
T a
no
ma
ly (
C)
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5 T
rop
ica
l Cyc
lon
e C
ou
nts
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
AC
E
0
Hurricane Activity
(Best Track ACE)
Historical Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temp
Lesser Antilles
Atlantic SST
Tierney et al. 2015
Is there other evidence for elevated LIA activity?
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
SS
T a
no
ma
ly (
C)
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5 T
rop
ica
l Cyc
lon
e C
ou
nts
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
AC
E
0
Hurricane Activity
(Best Track ACE)
Lesser Antilles
Atlantic SST
Tierney et al. 2015
Is there other evidence for elevated LIA activity?
Historical Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temp
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
SS
T a
no
ma
ly (
C)
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5 T
rop
ica
l Cyc
lon
e C
ou
nts
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
AC
E
0
Hurricane Activity
(Best Track ACE)
Lesser Antilles
Atlantic SST
Tierney et al. 2015
Is there other evidence for elevated LIA activity?
Historical Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temp
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
SS
T a
no
ma
ly (
C)
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5 T
rop
ica
l Cyc
lon
e C
ou
nts
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
AC
E
0
Hurricane Activity
(Best Track ACE)
Lesser Antilles
Atlantic SST
Tierney et al. 2015
Charleston hurricanes
NYC hurricanes
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
SS
T a
no
ma
ly (
C)
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5 T
rop
ica
l Cyc
lon
e C
ou
nts
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
AC
E
0
Hurricane Activity
(Best Track ACE)
Lesser Antilles
Atlantic SST
Tierney et al. 2015
Is there other evidence for elevated LIA activity?
Historical Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temp
8000 years worth of hurricane tracks (≥Cat 2 intensity) from the Emanuel (2006) model
passing within 60 miles of the Woods Hole (17,354 total storms).
1049 Cat 2 storms (green), 242 Cat 3 storms (yellow) and four Cat 4 storms (red).
No Cat 5 storms were simulated.
Modeling Hurricanes
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Eve
nts
pe
r d
ec
ad
e
Age CE
South Andros, Bahamas - Event Frequency (>6%)
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Mann et al. 2009 Main Development Region SST
MDR Anomaly NOAA ERST
MD
R A
no
ma
ly
Year
Record from South Andros Bahamas
Record from South Andros Bahamas
1945
1919
Record from South Andros Bahamas
1945
1919
Record from South Andros Bahamas
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Mann et al. 2009 Main Development Region SST
MDR Anomaly NOAA ERST
MD
R A
no
ma
ly
Year
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Mann et al. 2009 Main Development Region SST
MDR Anomaly NOAA ERST
MD
R A
no
ma
ly
Year
Atlantic
SST
Tierney
et al.
2015
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
SS
T a
no
maly
(C
)
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
AC
E
0
Hurricane Activity
(Best Track ACE)
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Mann et al. 2009 Main Development Region SST
MDR Anomaly NOAA ERST
MD
R A
no
ma
ly
Year
Atlantic
SST
Tierney
et al.
2015
1815
1954 1938
Thank you! Further Reading:
Early American Hurricanes, D.M. Ludlum
A Wind to Shake the World, E.S. Allen
Sudden Sea: The Great Hurricane of 1938, R.A. Scotti
Issac’s Storm, Erik Larson
Also checkout episode 2 of Years of Living Dangerously
on National Geographic Channel and NOVA in 2017
and www.whoi.edu/science/GG/coastal
Hurricane Records from Blueholes
Conditions for genesis
• Warm tropical waters > 26oC, 80oF
• Minimal Wind Shear Aloft
• Prior disturbance
• Coriolis Deflection
What is a tropical cyclone?
What Might the Future Hold?
N. Atl. Tropical Cyclones
N. Atl. Tropical SST
N. Hem. Mean Temp
From
Coumou and Rahmstorf, 2012
Nature Climate Change
Sedimentary archives in blueholes provide the means to reconstruct regional patterns
Hurricane Records from Blueholes
Frequency of hurricanes may increase (particularly intense storms)
Hurricanes
Emanuel, 2013 PNAS RCP8.5
Hurricane Event Bed
Record from South Andros Bahamas
Divine Wind (Kamikaze)
typhoons of 1274 and 1281
Kublai Khan
Woodruff et al., 2009 QSR
Historical Impacts of Tropical Cyclones
1737 - 300,000-350,000 fatalities
1876 - 100,000 fatalities
1897 - 175,000 fatalities
1942 - 40,000 fatalities
1963 - 22,000 fatalities
1965 - 60,000 fatalities
1970 - 300,000-500,000 fatalities (contributed to civil war and eventually Bangladesh independence)
1991 - 138,000 fatalities
Bay of Bengal Cyclone Tragedies
Where do they occur?
Tropical cyclones come in different sizes
Fort Caroline (Jacksonville), FL
A French Florida?
French assault on St. Augustine Florida thwarted by Hurricane in 1565 CE.
The French are expelled from FL by the Spanish.
Historical Impacts of Hurricanes
Questions
• Why so much damage from Sandy?
• What is the relationship with SST and Atlantic hurricane activity
during the historic period?
• How has hurricane activity varied prehistorically?
• Is there a relationship between changes prehistoric hurricane
activity and SST
• How well does climate modeling capture historical
and prehistoric hurricane activity? Should we trust them to
predict the future?
Outline
• Background on hurricanes and climate
• Putting Hurricane Sandy in context • What the long term (prehistoric) record tells us
Falmouth
What if the Hurricane of 1635 Struck Again?
What Might the Future Hold?
From Emanuel, 2013 PNAS
Using IPCC AR5 models
Frequency of hurricanes
may increase (particularly
intense storms)
Regional historical compilations can extend the record
back further
e.g., Documentary records from the Lesser Antilles
compiled by Chenoweth and Devine (2008) go back
to the late 17th century
10-20°N @ 61.5°W
Falmouth
What if Hurricane Bob Struck Again?
a - Event deposits
Salt Pond, MA
0 500 1000 1500 2000 Age (years CE)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35 C
oars
e a
nom
aly
(%>
63m
m)
Hurricane-induced
Sand Layers
Prehistoric Hurricanes and Climate
19
91
16
75
1
63
5
0.0000
5.0000
10.0000
15.0000
20.0000
25.0000
30.0000
35.0000
0 500 1000 1500 2000
a - Event deposits
Salt Pond, MA
0
1
2
3
4
5
Even
ts/c
en
tury
ʎ = 0.9
(0.01)
(0.002)
(0.06)
(0.2)
(0.6)
(1)
0.01
0 500 1000 1500 2000 Age (years CE)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Coars
e a
nom
aly
(%>
63m
m)
0.03
Prehistoric Hurricanes and Climate
a - Event deposits
Salt Pond, MA
0
1
2
3
4
5
Even
ts/c
en
tury
ʎ = 0.9
(0.01)
(0.002)
(0.06)
(0.2)
(0.6)
(1)
0.01
0 500 1000 1500 2000 Age (years CE)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Coars
e a
nom
aly
(%>
63m
m)
0.03
Basin-wide increases related to warm SST
anomaly in deep tropics
Increased activity driven by warm SST anomaly off East Coast
Prehistoric Hurricanes and Climate
Intensity
a - Event deposits
Salt Pond, MA
0
1
2
3
4
5
Even
ts/c
en
tury
ʎ = 0.9
(0.01)
(0.002)
(0.06)
(0.2)
(0.6)
(1)
0.01
0 500 1000 1500 2000 Age (years CE)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Coars
e a
nom
aly
(%>
63m
m)
0.03
b - Inlet Formation Outer Banks, NC
0
5
10
15
20
25
Cuum
ula
tive
Events
Landscape
Impacts
Prehistoric Hurricanes and Climate
HMS Hector and HMS Bristol by William Elliott
More than 23,000 fatalities
in Great Hurricane of 1780
Infamous Atlantic Hurricanes
1900 Galveston, TX Hurricane
Category 4 at landfall
5,000-12,000 fatalities
No warning – weather service predicted track along eastern seaboard
Infamous Atlantic Hurricanes
1928 San Felipe II or Okeechobee Hurricane
Category 5 in Puerto Rico/Category 4 at FL landfall
Over 4,000 fatalities total
2,500 at Lake Okeechobee
Infamous Atlantic Hurricanes
Hurricane Mitch in 1998 20,000 fatalities (mostly in Honduras)
Made landfall as a cat 1 but dumped nearly a meter of rain
Infamous Atlantic Hurricanes
Hurricane Katrina 2005 1833 fatalities
81 billion dollars of damage
Infamous Atlantic Hurricanes
Hurricane Records from Blueholes
Hurricane Bob (1991) Storm Surge
What about eastern MA?
What if Sandy hit SE New England?
What if Sandy hit SE New England?
~1.4 m of surge at Woods Hole
SLOSH simulation for Woods Hole (above astronomical tide)
Monthly highest water Woods Hole tide gauge (above MHW)
SLOSH simulation for Woods Hole (above MHW)
Boldt et al. (2010)
0
1
2
3
4
1869
1815
1635
me
ters
1727
1804
2000
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
1938
1944
1954
(Carol)
1960 (Donna) 1991 (Bob)
Year
Irene
Sandy
Hypothetical SE New England Sandy landfall
0
5
10
15
fee
t
Woods Hole, MA
What if Sandy hit SE New England?
Sedimentary Records of Hurricane Strikes
WHOI
1 fo
ot
Overwash sand layer
Overwash sand layer
Overwash sand layer Overwash sand layer
What Might the Future Hold?
Rate of sea-level rise will continue to accelerate
IPCC AR5
Recent Hurricane Trends
Temperatures will continue to warm
2015 2099
What Might the Future Hold?
2015 2099
Similar to COP 21
Temperatures will continue to warm
What Might the Future Hold?
Record from Florida Panhandle (Mullet Pond)
Lin et al., 2014 JGR
Magnussen et al. 2014
Monthly Weather Review
The average depth of the
storm was increased by
7.6 hPa, the wind speeds
were increased by 3.6 m
s–1 and the precipitation
increased by 35%.
Influence of warm SSTs on Sandy
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
SS
T a
no
ma
ly (
C)
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5 T
rop
ica
l Cyc
lon
e C
ou
nts
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
AC
E
0
Hurricane Activity
(Best Track ACE)
Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temp
Lesser Antilles storm counts
Chenoweth and Devine, 2008
Atlantic SST
Tierney et al. 2015
Charleston hurricanes
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
SS
T a
no
ma
ly (
C)
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5 T
rop
ica
l Cyc
lon
e C
ou
nts
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
AC
E
0
Hurricane Activity
(Best Track ACE)
Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temp
Lesser Antilles
Atlantic SST
Tierney et al. 2015
Charleston hurricanes
NYC hurricanes
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
SS
T a
no
ma
ly (
C)
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5 T
rop
ica
l Cyc
lon
e C
ou
nts
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
AC
E
0
Hurricane Activity
(Best Track ACE)
Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temp
Lesser Antilles
Atlantic SST
Tierney et al. 2015
Charleston hurricanes
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
SS
T a
no
ma
ly (
C)
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5 T
rop
ica
l Cyc
lon
e C
ou
nts
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
AC
E
0
Hurricane Activity
(Best Track ACE)
Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temp
Lesser Antilles
Atlantic SST
Tierney et al. 2015
Charleston hurricanes
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
SS
T a
no
ma
ly (
C)
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5 T
rop
ica
l Cyc
lon
e C
ou
nts
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
AC
E
0
Hurricane Activity
(Best Track ACE)
Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temp
Lesser Antilles
Atlantic SST
Tierney et al. 2015
Charleston hurricanes
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
SS
T a
no
ma
ly (
C)
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5 T
rop
ica
l Cyc
lon
e C
ou
nts
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
AC
E
0
Hurricane Activity
(Best Track ACE)
Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temp
Lesser Antilles
Atlantic SST
Tierney et al. 2015
Charleston hurricanes
NYC hurricanes
Hurricane Sandy 2012
68 billion in damage
148 fatalities
Sedimentary Records of Hurricane Strikes
Tallahassee
Apalachee Bay
Record from Florida Panhandle (Mullet Pond)
Tallahassee
Apalachee Bay
Record from Florida Panhandle (Mullet Pond)
Tallahassee
Record from Florida Panhandle (Mullet Pond)
Record from Florida Panhandle (Mullet Pond)
Lane et al., 2011 Marine Geo.
Lin et al., 2014 JGR
Eve
nt B
ed
s p
er C
en
tury
Record from Florida Panhandle (Mullet Pond)
Record from Florida Panhandle (Mullet Pond)
Record from Florida Panhandle (Mullet Pond)
Lin et al., 2014 JGR
Salt Pond Reconstruction
Salt Pond Reconstruction
≥D99
Donnelly et al., 2015
Earth’s Future
John Winthrop (Governor of Massachusetts Bay Colony) “The tide rose at Narragansett fourteen feet higher than ordinary, and drowned eight Indians flying from their wigwams”
William Bradford (Governor of Plymouth Colony) “…a mighty storm of wind and rain as none living in these parts, either English or Indians ever saw” “It caused the sea to swell to the south wind of this place above 20 foot right up and down, and made many of the Indians to climb into trees for their safety” “It blew down many hundred thousands of trees, turning up the stronger by the roots and breaking the higher pine trees off in the middle”
Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635
Hindcast SLOSH model simualtion
Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635
Salt Pond Reconstruction
Donnelly et al., 2015
Earth’s Future
Mattapoisett Marsh
Salt Pond Reconstruction
Salt Pond Reconstruction
Thatchpoint Bluehole
Climate Forcing
Climate Forcing
Climate Forcing
Storm tides in lower Manhattan
1788
1821
1893
1938
1944
1950
1953
1960
1960
1961
1962
1966
1968
1984
1985
1987
1991
1992
1993
1996
1996
Hurricanes
Winter Storm
Maxim
um
Wate
r Level above M
SL (
m)
Date
2012
0
1
2
3
4
1788
1821
1893
1938
1944
1950
1953
1960
1960
1961
1962
1966
1968
1984
1985
1987
1991
1992
1993
1996
1996
Hurricanes
Winter Storm
Maxim
um
Wate
r Level above M
SL (
m)
Date
2012
Storm tides in lower Manhattan
0
1
2
3
4
If 1821 hit at high tide
If Sandy hit at low tide
Regional Patterns
Hurricane Records from Blue Holes
Hurricane Sandy Storm Tide
Hurricane Sandy Storm Tide
1788
1821
Hurricane Sandy Storm Tide
Hurricane Sandy Storm Tide
Long Beach
Long Beach Washover
Pre Sandy Post Sandy
Long Beach Washover
Research and education to advance understanding of the
ocean and its interaction with the Earth system
for the benefit of society
Research and education to advance understanding of the
ocean and its interaction with the Earth system
for the benefit of society
In other words, how did the ocean end up in the NYC subway?
Research and education to advance understanding of the
ocean and its interaction with the Earth system
for the benefit of society
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
SS
T a
no
ma
ly (
C)
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
Western Atl. SST
Tierney et al. 2015
Charleston hurricanes
NYC hurricanes
Is there other evidence for elevated LIA activity?
Historical Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temp
17/188 years 14/144 years
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
SS
T a
no
ma
ly (
C)
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
AC
E
0
Hurricane Activity
(Best Track ACE)
Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temp
Atlantic SST
Tierney et al.
2015
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
SS
T a
no
ma
ly (
C)
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Tro
pic
al C
yc
lon
e C
ou
nts
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
AC
E
0
Hurricane Activity
(Best Track ACE)
Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temp
Atlantic SST
Tierney et al.
2015
Lesser Antilles storm counts
Chenoweth and Devine, 2008
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
SS
T a
no
ma
ly (
C)
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Tro
pic
al C
yc
lon
e C
ou
nts
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
AC
E
0
Hurricane Activity
(Best Track ACE)
Hurricanes and Sea Surface Temp
Lesser Antilles storm counts
Chenoweth and Devine, 2008
Atlantic SST
Tierney et al.
2015
Questions and some answers
• Why so much damage from Sandy? Coastal population growth
and development in low lying areas
• What is the relationship with SST and Atlantic hurricane activity
during the historic period? Positive correlation falls apart
prior to 20th century
• How has hurricane activity varied prehistorically?
• Is there a relationship between changes prehistoric hurricane
activity and SST?
• How well does climate modeling capture historical
and prehistoric hurricane activity? Should we trust them to
predict the future?
Summary
NJ/NYC were fortunate throughout the 20th
century (unfortunately this was a time of
unprecedented coastal development)
Summary
NJ/NYC were fortunate throughout the 20th
century (unfortunately this was a time of
unprecedented coastal development)
Storms of far greater intensity than Hurricane
Sandy (and Bob) impacted the area
historically (and prehistorically)
Summary
NJ/NYC were fortunate throughout the 20th
century (unfortunately this was a time of
unprecedented coastal development)
Storms of far greater intensity than Hurricane
Sandy (and Bob) impacted the area
historically (and prehistorically)
Over the last two millennium historically
unprecedented intense hurricane activity
occurred during intervals of elevated sea
surface temperatures
Despite cool SSTs in the Little Ice Age the Lesser
Antilles saw heightened levels of hurricane activity
Summary
Summary
Despite cool SSTs in the Little Ice Age the Lesser
Antilles saw heightened levels of hurricane activity
The impacts of future hurricane activity will be
greatly exacerbated by continuing sea-level rise
and coastal population growth, regardless of
whether or not we experience significant
increases in hurricane landfalls
Current and Future Work
Record from South Andros Bahamas
0 40 80 120 160
Pb (ints)
0 20 40 60 80 100 % coarse
0 0.1 Cs-137 (Bq/g)
600
800
1000
1600
400
200
0
1800
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Dep
th (
cm
)
0 20 40 60 80 100 % coarse
0.5
Bob (1991)
Donna (1960)
1938
1944
Carol (1954) 1959
1963
1954
onset of industrial
revolution ~1860
Age
(ca
l ye
ar
B1
95
0)
Oyster Pond Core 13
1815
1804 1806
1200
1400
![A Dimensions: [mm] B Recommended land pattern: [mm] D ...2012-12-06 2012-10-24 2012-08-08 2012-06-28 2012-03-12 DATE SSt SSt SSt SSt SSt SSt BY SSt SSt BD BD SSt DDe CHECKED Würth](https://img.dokumen.tips/doc/110x75/60f984e176666848374d15c0/a-dimensions-mm-b-recommended-land-pattern-mm-d-2012-12-06-2012-10-24.jpg)
![A Dimensions: [mm] B Recommended land pattern: [mm] D ... · 2013-03-12 2013-01-13 2012-12-10 2012-10-29 2012-08-27 2006-05-05 DATE SSt SSt SSt SSt SSt SSt SSt BY SSt COt COt SSt](https://img.dokumen.tips/doc/110x75/604b228bc93c005c75431c51/a-dimensions-mm-b-recommended-land-pattern-mm-d-2013-03-12-2013-01-13.jpg)
![A Dimensions: [mm] B Recommended land pattern: [mm] D ... · 2005-12-16 DATE SSt SSt SSt SSt SSt SSt SSt BY SSt SSt SMu SMu SSt ... RDC Value 600 800 1000 0.20 High Cur rent ... 350](https://img.dokumen.tips/doc/110x75/5c61318009d3f21c6d8cb002/a-dimensions-mm-b-recommended-land-pattern-mm-d-2005-12-16-date-sst.jpg)
