Charts for boxes and appendices in IR 2/2004

Charts for boxes and appendices

Box 1

Recent developments

Chart 1 CPI-ATE1). Total and by supplier sector2). 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 01 – May 04

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

2001 2002 2003 2004

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

1) CPI-ATE: CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products2) Norges Bank's estimatesSources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Goods and services produced in Norway

CPI-ATE

Imported consumer goods

Chart 2 Prices for selected imported consumer goods1). 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 2004 – May 2004

-15

-10

-5

0

5

2001 2002 2003 2004

-15

-10

-5

0

5

1) Percentage share of CPI-ATE in brackets

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Cars (9)

Clothing and footwear (7)

Audiovisual equipment (3)

Chart 3 Prices for goods and services produced in Norway1). 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 01 – May 04

-3

-1

1

3

5

7

2001 2002 2003 2004

-3

-1

1

3

5

7

1) Adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products Percentage share of CPI-ATE in brackets. Norges Bank's estimates

2) Excluding agricultural and fish products

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Consumer goods produced in Norwayexcluding energy products2) (20)

House rent (18)

Services with wages as a dominant factor (7)

Other services (20)

Chart 4 Air fares1). 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 04 – May 04

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

2001 2002 2003 2004

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

1) Adjusted for tax changesSources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Chart 5 CPI and CPI-ATE. 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 01 – May 04

-3-2-10123456

2001 2002 2003 2004

-3-2-10123456

Sources: Statistics Norway

CPI

CPI-ATE

Box 2

Financial stability

Chart 1 Household debt burden1). Quarterly figures. 87 Q1 – 06 Q42)

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

1987 1991 1995 1999 2003

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

1) Loan debt as a percentage of disposable income less the return on insurance claims. In the projection it is assumed that debt growth gradually slows and is in line with growth in disposable income in 2006

2) Projections for 2003 – 2006

Source: Norges Bank

Chart 2 Number of bankruptcies, number of employees in bankrupt entities and total market value. Seasonally adjusted index. 98 Q4 = 100. 98 Q4 – 04 Q1

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1998 2000 2002

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Market value

Number employed

Number of bankruptcies

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Box 3

Norges Bank's estimate for the output gap

Chart 1 Estimates of the output gap1). Annual and quarterly figures. 1980 – 2004. Per cent

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

1) The output gap measures the difference between actual and trend mainland GDPSources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Annual figures.

Quarterly figures

Chart 2 Estimates of the output gap1) and the wage gap2). Annual figures. 1992 – 2004

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

1) Mainland Norway. Per cent2) Difference between rise in hourly labour costs in manufacturing in Norway and among trading partners up to and including 2000. Thereafter wage growth in manufacturing as a deviation from 4.5 per centSources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Wage gap

Output gap

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6Employment gap

Output gap

Chart 3 Estimates of the output gap1) and the employment gap. Annual figures. 1980 – 2004. Per cent.

1) Mainland Norway

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Chart 4 The output gap1). Norges Bank's estimates and estimates based on the production function method. Annual figures. 1980 – 2004. Per cent

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

1) Mainland NorwaySources: Statistics Norway, OECD Economic Outlook no. 75 and Norges Bank

Norges Bank's estimates

Production function

Chart 5 The output gap1). Norges Bank's estimates and estimates based on the UC method and the band-pass filter. Annual figures. 1980 – 2004. Per cent

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

1) Mainland NorwaySources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Norges Bank's estimates

Bandpass

UC

Box 4

Changed inflation expectations?

Chart 1 Implied long-term inflation rates1). Daily figures2). 1 Jan 98 – 22 Jun 04

0

1

2

3

4

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

0

1

2

3

4

US (2010)

Euro area (2012)

1) The chart shows expected average annual inflation rates up to the year in question, derived from the yield spread between nominal bonds and inflation-linked bonds. Figures for the euro area are based on French bonds2) 20-day moving averageSources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank

UK (2011)

Chart 2 Long-term real interest rates. Daily figures1). 1 Jan 98 – 22 Jun 04

0

1

2

3

4

5

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20040

1

2

3

4

5

US (2010)

Euro area (2012)

1) 20-day moving average

Source: Bloomberg

UK (2011)

Chart 3 Long-term forward interest rate differential against selected countries1). Daily figures2). 1. Jan 01 – 21. June 04

-2

-1

0

1

2

2001 2002 2003 2004

-2

-1

0

1

2

US

Euro area

1) The chart shows the difference between implied 1-year interest rates 9 years ahead in Norway and in seleced countries on the basis of interest rates in the swap market2) 20-day moving averageSource: EcoWin

UK

Box 5

Preliminary assessment of the projections in Inflation

Report 1/2004

Chart 1 CPI-ATE1). Total and by supplier sector2). Actual price movements and projections IR 1/04. 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 01 – Jul 04

-5

-3

-1

1

3

5

jan 03 jul 03 jan 04

-5

-3

-1

1

3

5

1) CPI-ATE: CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products2) Norges Bank's estimates. Percentage share of CPI-ATE in bracketsSources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Domestically produced goods and services (72)

CPI-ATE

Imported consumer goods (28)

Projections IR 1/04

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

des 03 feb 04 apr 04 jun 04

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

Chart 2 CPI-ATE. Projection IR 1/04, projection from time series model and actual price movements. 12-month rise. Per cent. Dec 03 – Jul 04

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Time series model

Actual CPI-ATE

Projection IR 1/04

Chart 3 Assumption for the krone exchange rate (I-44)1). Forward exchange rates. Monthly figures

80

90

100

110

2001 2003 2005 2007

80

90

100

110

1)A rising curve denotes a weaker krone exchange rate

Source: Norges Bank

Forward rate 24 June (assumption IR 2/04)

Import-weighted exchange rate, I-44

Forward rate 4 March (assumption IR 1/04)

0

2

4

6

8

10

2001 2003 2005 2007

0

2

4

6

8

10

Chart 4 Assumption for the money market rate1). Forward interest rate2). Monthly figures. Per cent

Forward rate 24 June (assumption IR 2/04)

3-month money market rate

Forward rate 4 March (assumption IR 1/04)

1) The money market rate is normally about ¼ percentage point higher than the sight deposit rate2) 3-month money market rate up to May 2004. The 3-month forward rate is estimated using four money market rates and four government bond yields with different maturities as observed on 4 March and 24 JuneSource: Norges Bank

Chart 5 Projections for the CPI-ATE and the output gap1) in Inflation Report 1/04 (red) and 2/04 (green). Per cent

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

1) The output gap measures the difference between actual and trend mainland GDP Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

CPI-ATE

Output gap

IR 1/04IR 2/04

Chart 6 CPI-ATE. Total and by supplier sector1). 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 01 – Dec 07

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

2001 2003 2005 2007

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

1) Norges Bank's estimates

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Goods and services produced in Norway

CPI-ATE

Imported consumer goods

Projections IR 2/04Projections IR 1/04

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

FIN SN NB

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Chart 7 Mainland GDP. The last two projections published for 2004. Percentage growth

10/03 5/04 3/04 6/04 3/04 7/04

Sources: Ministry of Finance (FIN): National Budget 2004, Revised National Budget 2004. Statistics Norway (SN): Economic Survey 1/2004 and 3/2004. Norges Bank (NB): Inflation Report 1/2004 and 2/2004

Chart 8 CPI-ATE. The last two projections published for 2004. Percentage rise

-1

0

1

2

FIN SN NB

-1

0

1

2

Sources: Ministry of Finance (FIN): National Budget 2004, Revised National Budget 2004. Statistics Norway (SN): Economic Survey 1/2004 and 3/2004. Norges Bank (NB): Inflation Report 1/2004 and 2/2004

10/03 5/04 3/04 6/04 3/04 7/04

Box 6

What lies behind the rise in futures prices for oil?

Chart 1 Spot and futures prices (6 – 7 years) for oil in the US. USD per barrel. Quarterly figures. 91 Q1 – 04 Q2

10

20

30

40

10

20

30

40

1991 1994 1997 2000 2003

Source: EcoWin

Spot price

Futures price

Chart 2 Futures price curves for Brent Blend at three different times with the same spot price (USD 35 per barrel)

2022242628303234363840

5 10 15 20 25 30 35

2022242628303234363840

Source: EcoWin

June 2004

March 2003

August 2000

Number of months to maturity

Appendices 4 and 5

0

2

4

6

8

10

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20040

2

4

6

8

10

1) The money market rate is normally about ¼ percentage point higher than the sight deposit rate

Source: Norges Bank

Sight deposit rate

3-month money market rate

3-month money-market rate and sight deposit rate1). Monthly figures. Jan 95 – May 04

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20040

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1) Theoretical ECU rate up to December 1998

Source: Norges Bank

Euro area1)

US

Japan

3-month rates in the US, the euro area and Japan. Per cent. Monthly figures. Jan 1995 – May 2004

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 200485

90

95

100

105

110

115

Source: Norges Bank

Import-weighted exchange rate, I-44(1995=100)

Trade-weighted exchange rate index, TWI (1990=100)

Trade-weighted exchange rate index (TWI) and import-weighted exchange rate (I-44). Monthly figures. Jan 95 – May 04

0

5

10

15

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20040

5

10

15

Source: Norges Bank

Credit to households

C2

The credit indicator (C2), credit to households and total credit to the non-financial private sector and municipalities, mainland Norway (C3). 12-month rise. Per cent. Monthly figures. Jan 97 – Apr 04

C3 mainland Norway

0

2

4

6

8

10

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

0

2

4

6

8

10

Assumption for money market rate. Forward rate. Monthly figures. Per cent

Source: Norges Bank

Forward rate 24 June (assumption IR 2/04)

3-month money market rate

Assumption for the krone exchange rate (I-44). Forward exchange rate. Monthly figures

80

90

100

110

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

80

90

100

110

1)A rising curve denotes a weaker krone exchange rate

Source: Norges Bank

Forward rate 24 June (assumption IR 2/04)

Import-weighted exchange rate, I-44