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ISSN: 2286-6132
ChartingThailand’sEconomy
MONTHLY
พฤศจิกายน 2558
Flickr / joanet
DISCLAIMERAll Rights Reserved.No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitby any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without tpermission of the publisher, ChartingTHAILAND™.The facts of this report are believed to be correct at the time of publication but cannotPlease note that the findings, conclusions and recommendations that ChartingTHAILANbe based on information gathered in good faith from both primary and secondary souraccuracy we are not always in a position to guarantee. As such ChartingTHAILAND™ caliability whatever for actions taken based on any information that may subsequently pincorrect.
ASK THE EDITORChartingTHAILAND™ team consists of editors, analysts, and researchers. For any questcomments about this report, you can contact the chief editor directly [email protected].
Charting Thailand’s Economy Monthly Brief, November 2015 (Thai)Publication Date: November 3rd, 2015Number of pages: 70
2
tted in any formthe prior
t be guaranteed.ND™ delivers willrces, whosen accept norove to be
ions and
Copyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.com
3
•
••
•••
• . . 1%
•
•
• 2.7-3.4% 201
• . .
•
• 9
• 9 2015
. .
Grow
thS
tability
2.8%
15 3.7-4.0% 2016
2015
5Copyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.com
Source: NESDB; ChartingTHAILAND analysisNote: (*) Cumulative Annual Growth Rate
1.05 –
%
7.2%
6.3%
4.2%
5.0%5.4%
1.7%
-0.7%
7.5%
0.8%
7.3%
2.8%
0.9%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
10
(
)
2003 2014
3.4% 10 2009
2013
2.8%
2014
2014 0.9%
2015
2.8%
6© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
0.9% 1.0%
2.1%
3.0%2.8%
2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15
Last 5 Quarters
Source: NESDB; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
1.06a – 2Q15
%
1.06b –
%
18.7
17.3
8.6
8.6
6.3
5.5
5.5
3.7
2.8
2.7
2.5
2.2
1.3
-0.7
-1.6
-3.9
-6.3
Hotel&Res
Construction
Financial
Transport
Other social
Health&Social
Private HH
Trading
GDP
Utilities
RealEstate
Education
PublicAdmin
Manufacture
Fishing
Mining
Agriculture
GDP
Transport
Hotel&Res
Financial
Trading
Construction
RealEstate
Other social
Utilities
Health&Social
Education
PublicAdmin
Private HH
Fishing
Mining
Manufacture
Agriculture
Stat diff
2 2015
– 2Q15
7
2.8
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.5
© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
Source: NESDB; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
1.08a – 2Q15
%
1.08b –
%
Note: (*) C = , I = I (capital) = I (inventory) =
G = , X = ( ), M = (
25.1
4.6
2.8
2.5
1.9
1.5
-0.2
-0.3
-4.0
X (services)
G
GDP
I (capital)
I
C
M (services)
M (goods)
X (goods)
GDP
X (services)
Discrpncy
C
G
I (capital)
M (goods)
M (services)
I (Inventory)
X (goods)
– 2Q15
.) 8
2.8
3.3
3.0
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.1
0.0
-0.2
-2.5
© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
MPI Beyond TrainingBusiness Simulation andExperiential LearningContact Us:Tel: 02 168 7245 7, 098 248 2585www.BeyondTraining.co.thFacebook: MPI Beyond [email protected]
•
••
•••
• . . 1%
•
•
• 2.7-3.4% 201
• . .
•
• 9
• 9 2015
. .
Grow
thS
tability
2.8%
15 3.7-4.0% 2016
2015
10Copyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.com
1.10 – (2000 = 100)
Source: The Office of Industrial Economics
152.1161.1
174.6182.9
170.0
194.2
177.6 181.6 175.7167.7
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2
2000 100
10
2009
2011
2013
11© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
200.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
2014
2015
1.11a –
% , . . 2015
1.11b –
%
Source: The Office of Industrial Economics; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
10.68.3
5.21.9
0.50.40.3
-1.1-1.2-1.7
-3.7-4.6
-5.5-7.3-7.9-8.1-8.4
-10.7-11.7
-18.2-21.4
PetroleumTobaccoVehicles
MachineriesTransport EquipMetal products
PaperPrecision instru
ChemicalFurniture
Rubber&PlasticFood & Bev
MineralTextiles
Wood productsElectrical
Office automateElectronicLeather
Basic MatApparel
TobaccoTransport Equip
MachineriesElectronic
Office automateMetal products
VehiclesFurniture
Precision instruWood products
TextilesLeather
Rubber&PlasticElectricalBasic MatMineral
Food & BevPetroleum
PaperChemicalApparel
. .
. .
–
, . . 2015
12© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
15.511.811.5
10.59.99.5
7.46.76.56.2
1.80.8
-1.5-1.6-1.8-1.9-2.3
-3.4-4.7
-6.2-12.8
1.12a –
%
1.12b –
%
Source: The Office of Industrial Economics
Rubber&PlasticTextiles
Wood productsElectronicElectricalFurniture
Metal productsBasic MatLeather
Office automateFood & Bev
Precision instruMineral
ChemicalTransport Equip
VehiclesPaper
MachineriesPetroleum
ApparelTobacco
50%
52%
54%
56%
58%
60%
62%
64%
66%
68%
70%
Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15
Normal
Seasonally adjusted
. .
. .
, . . 2015
13© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
89%84%
81%80%
76%71%
68%66%66%
60%59%59%
51%50%
47%43%
41%40%39%
30%30%
1.13 –
% ,
Source: The Economist
2
1.2
0.9
0.4
-0.9
-1.2
-3.5
-3.6
-4.8
-5.3
-8.9
Vietnam Oct
India Aug
China Sep
Pakistan Aug
Indonesia Aug
Philippines Aug
Malaysia Aug
South Korea Sep
Australia Q2
Euro Area Aug
US Sep
Japan Sep
Hong Kong Q2
Russia Sep
Thailand Sep
Singapore Sep
Taiwan Sep
Brazil Aug
14© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
8.8
6.4
5.7
4.8
4.4
3.7
3.0
2.4
Recommended Video
15
2
http://goo.gl/g1oOka
•
••
•••
• . . 1%
•
•
• 2.7-3.4% 201
• . .
•
• 9
• 9 2015
. .
Grow
thS
tability
2.8%
15 3.7-4.0% 2016
2015
16Copyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.com
. .
1.14a – (2010 = 100)
Source: Bank of Thailand
Note: (*) seasonally adjusted
1.1
%
Non re
Se
Non du
Composite
Semi du
Du80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
115.0
120.0
125.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
2014
2015
5
( Nielsen’s
FMCG
)
(
)
(
)
(
)
(
)
2010
. .
4b –
, . . 2015
17© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
13.4
4.8
2.2
0.4
-1.3
-8.7
sident
ervices
rables
Index
rables
rables
Source: Bank of Thailand
1.15a – (2010 = 100)
1.15b
%
Note: (*) figures are 1 month delayed
Domestic M(2010
Import(201
Constructio
Cp
DomesticSa113.0
114.0
115.0
116.0
117.0
118.0
119.0
120.0
121.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
20142015
5
2553
2553
3
9
2553
b –
, . . 2015
18© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
11.7
1.1
0.1
-2.7
-3.4
-6.0
Machinery sales*prices, Baht)
Composite Index
of Capital Goods0 prices, Baht)
on Material SalesIndex
onstruction Areapermitted (sqm)
c Commercial Carales Index
Source: BOT
5.14 –
.
8,562
6,411
14,747
2,474
12,899
15,936
3,720
08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
(Foreign Direct
Investment : FDI)
(Equity
capital)
10
.
.
.
.
19© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
J F M A M J J A S O N D
2014
2015
.
.
5.15 – .
Source: Board of Investment
Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%)
236
396
648
525
1,023
10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY
.
10%
.
8
50
20© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
288
50
2014/8M 2015/8M
5.16 – .
Source: Board of Investment; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%)(**) ANIEs: Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea
49%58% 54%
29
7%
10%7%
17
8%
7%10%
10
7%
10%6%
7%
2%
4%
2%
13
27%
11%21% 25
11FY 12FY 13FY 14F
Europe
Japan
ASEANANIEsUSA
Others
21© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
9%20%
7%
5%
0%
30%
%13%
3%13%
5%19%
FY 2015/8M
. .
1.16a –
% , 8 2015
1.16b
%
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
31.8
1.3
-4.7
-6.1
Condo unit registered
New housing unit
Constr. Area in municipal
Value of land transaction
-1.8
-8.1
4
. .
b –
, . . 2015
22© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
107.4
4.6
•
••
•••
• . . 1%
•
•
• 2.7-3.4% 201
• . .
•
• 9
• 9 2015
. .
Grow
thS
tability
2.8%
15 3.7-4.0% 2016
2015
23Copyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.com
5.03a –
9 ,
5.03b
9 ,
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
Note: (*) Not equal to the one in Balance of Payment decomposition due to few adjustments(**) Excluding Electricity and aircraft export, adjustment for Balance of payment and exchange rate conversion
(***) Excluding Electricity and military import, adjustment for Balance of payment and exchange rate conversion
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Export Import Tradebalance
2014
2015
– = -20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Expo
-7.6% -5.0-1.9%
b –
24© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
ort Import Trade balance– =
0% -10.5%
. . 9
5.05a –
% , 9 2015
5.05b –
%
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
-1.928.5
25.56.36.2
3.52.31.91.70.5
-0.3-1.5-2.3-4.0-5.0-6.2-6.5-7.8-8.0
-14.3-17.6
-23.0-24.5-25.0
-49.4
Total exportOptical instruOther export
JewelleryAutomotiveMachinery
Other manufacturingPhoto instru
ElectricalElectronics
MetalForestry
Agro productsToiletriesApparelsFootware
AgriculturePetro chemical
FurnitureFishery
AircraftsChemicalsPetroleumRe exports
Mining
Total exportAutomotiveOther exportMachinery
Optical instruJewelleryElectrical
Other manufacturingElectronics
Photo instruForestryMetal
FootwareRe exportsFurnitureToiletriesFishery
ApparelsAircraftsMining
Agro productsPetro chemical
AgricultureChemicalsPetroleum
. . 9
25© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
-1.90.9
0.40.30.3
0.20.10.10.10.0
0.00.00.00.00.00.0
-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.3
-0.5-0.5
-0.9-1.2
5.07a – 5
%
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
23.0 24.3 24.6 25.9 26.1
20.4 21.0 21.0 21.2 20.3
11.7 11.1 11.4 11.5 12.0
11.3 10.9 9.5 9.8 10.3
10.5 10.7 10.2 9.7 9.65.0 4.7 5.1 5.1 5.2
18.1 17.4 18.1 16.7 16.5
10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY
ASEAN
NAFTA
East Asiaex Japan
EU
Japan
Middle East
Rest ofthe world
100% = (Trillion)6.1 6.7 7.1 6.9 7.3
Rest of
East Asi
M
( )
5.07b –
, 9 2015
26© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
8.3%
-0.8%
-3.0%
-3.3%
-3.4%
-4.1%
-9.8%
NAFTA
f the world
EU
a ex Japan
ASEAN
Japan
Middle East
7.6% 9 2015
5.09a –
% , 9 2015
5.09b –
%
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
-7.6
6.3
-0.3
-0.4
-2.2
-34.5
Total import
Consumer goods
Intermediate Non fuel
Others
Capital goods
Intermediate Fuel
Total imp
Consumer goo
Oth
Intermediate Non f
Capital goo
Intermediate F
7.6% 9 2015
27© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
-7.6
0.5
0.0
-0.1
-0.5
-7.5
ort
ods
ers
uel
ods
uel
5.08 –
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
7.5 7.5 7.8 8.0
17.4 18.9 18.9 20.8
44.0 40.0 37.5 35.7
20.9 21.3 24.4 23.3
10.2 12.4 11.4 12.2
10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY
Others
Capital goods
Consumer goods
100% = 5.9 7.0
Intermediate Fuel
Intermediate –Non Fuel
7.8 7.7
( )
28© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
8.7 9.7
20.8 15.4
38.340.8
24.2 25.5
8.1 8.5
14FY 15/9MO
(Trillion)7.4 5.2
Source: Department of Tourism
5.18 –
CAGR10.6%
10.011.7 11.5
14.5 14.115.9
19.2
22.4
26.524.8
05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY
. .
20%
9
27.2%
29© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
2014
2015
5.19a 5.19b
10
9 2015,
Source: Department of Tourism; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
51.2 53.8 56.0 59.9 58.8
27.9 26.5 25.323.8 24.8
5.3 5.0 4.8 4.4 4.515.6 14.7 13.8 11.9 11.9
10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY
EastAsia
Europe
Americas
Rest ofworld
191.4
177.8
163.6
149.9
128.2
118.1
112.9
69.6
China
Malaysia
Hong Kong
Korea
Taiwan
Vietnam
Japan
India
Singapore
USA
30© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
2,917.3
885.8
•
••
•••
• . . 1%
•
•
• 2.7-3.4% 201
• . .
•
• 9
• 9 2015
. .
Grow
thS
tability
2.8%
15 3.7-4.0% 2016
2015
31Copyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.com
. .
2.08 –
%
Source: National Statistical Office, Bank of Thailand
1.83
1.51
1.38 1.381.49
1.04
0.68 0.660.72
0.84
05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 11-Avg 12-Avg 13-Avg 14-Avg0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
15
30
30
15
. .
1%
1%
32© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
J F M A M J J A S O N D
2014
2015
2.09 –
, %
Source: The Economist
0.8
2.0
3.2
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.4
3.8
4.1
4.9
5.1
5.2
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.5
Thailand Sep
Singapore Q3
Malaysia Aug
South Korea Sep
Hong Kong Sep
Japan Sep
Vietnam 2014
Taiwan Sep
China Q3
India 2013
US Sep
Russia Sep
Indonesia Q1
Pakistan 2014
Australia Sep
Philippines Q3
Brazil Sep
Euro Area Sep
33© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
7.6
10.8
•
••
•••
• . . 1%
•
•
• 2.7-3.4% 201
• . .
•
• 9
• 9 2015
. .
Grow
thS
tability
2.8%
15 3.7-4.0% 2016
2015
34Copyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.com
. .
3.01a – . 3.01b –
3.01c – . 3.01d –
Source: Bank of Thailand Note: (*) All Commercial Banks registered in Thailand, excluding foreign branches
1.25%
1.50%
1.75%
2.00%
2.25%
2.50%
Nov-14 Oct-15
0.00%
2.50%
5.00%
7.50%
10.00%
Nov-14 Oct-15 Nov-14
Max
Min
Nov-14
. (
1 ) 12
1
12
12
12
0.5%
1.5%
BIBOR*
.
35© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
0.00%
2.50%
5.00%
7.50%
10.00%
Oct-15
Min
Max
1.25%
1.50%
1.75%
2.00%
2.25%
2.50%
Oct-15
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
–
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
D J F M A M J J A
2015
9
9%
36
S O N D
2014
© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
•
••
•••
• . . 1%
•
•
• 2.7-3.4% 201
• . .
•
• 9
• 9 2015
. .
Grow
thS
tability
2.8%
15 3.7-4.0% 2016
2015
37Copyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.com
1.18a – * 1.18b
Source: Bank of Thailand, The Federation of Thai Industries
Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index:Index = 50 indicates that business sentiment remains stableIndex > 50 indicates that business sentiment has improvedIndex < 50 indicates that business sentiment has worsened
Note: (*) Below is tIndex = 1Index > 1Index < 1
45.250.3 49.1
46.4 46.4 47.3
0
50
100
Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15
Better
Worse
86.2 85
0
100
200
Apr-15 May
Better
Worse
1,500
3
50
(
) 50
(
) 50
( )
100
100
100
. .
. .
– **
the interpretation of the index:00 indicates that industries sentiment remains stable00 indicates that industries sentiment has improved00 indicates that industries sentiment has worsened
38© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
5.4 84.0 83.0 82.4 82.8
y-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15
. .
(*) 0-100
50
50
50
1.17 –
Source: Ministry of Commerce
0
50
100
Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-150
50
100
Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15
Overall On job
Better
Worse
Better
Worse
0-
100 50
50
50
. .
35.4
50
39© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
0
50
100
Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15
On future income
Better
Worse
•
••
•••
• . . 1%
•
•
• 2.7-3.4% 201
• . .
•
• 9
• 9 2015
. .
Grow
thS
tability
2.8%
15 3.7-4.0% 2016
2015
40Copyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.com
.
1.03a –
2015, %
1.03b –
2016, %
Source: NESDB, Fiscal Policy Office, Bank of Thailand, The Economist
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
6.00
M-15 A-15 M-15 J-15 J-15 A-15 S-15 O-15
Forecast as of, month ending
BOT
FPOThe Economist
poll
NESDB
ForecaM-15 A-15 M-1
(BOT) (NESDB)
(FPO)
.
2.7-3.4% 2015
3.7-4.0% 2016
41© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
ast as of, month ending
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
6.00
15 J-15 J-15 A-15 S-15 O-15
BOT
The Economist poll
FPO
.
2015 2016
1.04a –
2015, % , 31/10/2015
1.04
2016,
Source: The Economist
7.46.8
6.46.3
5.75.4
4.83.4
3.22.9
2.52.42.42.3
1.50.7
-2.7-3.8
IndiaChina
PhilippinesVietnamPakistanMalaysiaIndonesiaThailandTaiwan
SingaporeUS
South KoreaHong KongAustraliaEuro Area
JapanBrazilRussia
-0.3-0.9
IndiaChina
VietnamPhilippinesMalaysiaIndonesiaPakistanThailand
SingaporeSouth Korea
TaiwanAustralia
USHong KongEuro Area
JapanRussiaBrazil
.
2015 2016
b –
% , 31/10/2015
42© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
7.76.56.5
6.36.1
5.14.7
4.03.0
2.82.62.62.6
2.11.7
1.23
•
••
•••
• . . 1%
•
•
• 2.7-3.4% 201
• . .
•
• 9
• 9 2015
. .
Grow
thS
tability
2.8%
15 3.7-4.0% 2016
2015
43Copyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.com
. .
3.07a –
%
3.07b
%
Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; ChartingTHAILAND analysis Note: (*) exclude raw food and energy
Veg
Tobacco & a
Food away from
Recreation & Edu
Prepared food at
Medic
Non alcoholic bev
Apparel and foo
Housing & furn
Sea
Eggs
Transport & C-1.50%
-1.00%
-0.50%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15
Head line
Core*
. .
b –
, . . 2015
44© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
9.0
2.1
1.8
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.1
0.1
-0.2
-0.2
-6.5
-15.5
& fruit
alcohol
m home
ucation
t home
al care
verage
otware
Meat
nishing
Rice
soning
& milk
Commu
Energy
3.08 –
%
Source: The EconomistNote: (*) The Economist Poll
Latest
1.
1.
0.8
0.7
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.8
15.7
9.5
6.8
4.4
2.6
2.0
1.6
1.3
1.5
0.6
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
-0.6
-0.8
Russia Sep
Brazil Sep
Indonesia Sep
India Sep
Malaysia Sep
Hong Kong Sep
China Sep
Pakistan Sep
Australia Q3
South Korea Sep
Philippines Sep
Japan Sep
US Sep
Vietnam Oct
Euro Area Oct
Taiwan Sep
Singapore Sep
Thailand Oct
2015*
45© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
15.2
8.9
6.4
5.1
2.5
3.1
6
3.9
.7
2.4
2.5
3.09a –
%
3.09
%
Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
Other manu goPulp & pa
EneC
TexLeather & footw
WMechinForeFore
Non metallic minFM
Electrical eqLivesto
Rubber & plaChem
Basic meFish
Petroleum prod
-6.0%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15
. .
3.1%
9b –
, . . 2015
46© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
3.9
3.1
2.2
2.2
0.7
0.5
0.5
0.2
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.4
-1.3
-2.1
-2.9
-2.9
-4.2
-4.9
-11.0
-26.5
oodsaperergyCropxtilewareWoodneryestryestryneralFoodMetalquipocksasticmicaletalshingucts
•
••
•••
• . . 1%
•
•
• 2.7-3.4% 201
• . .
•
• 9
• 9 2015
. .
Grow
thS
tability
2.8%
15 3.7-4.0% 2016
2015
47Copyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.com
3.02a –
3.02b –
Source: Bank of Thailand
97.2%96.4%
95.7% 95.7%94.9% 94.8% 94.5% 94.5%
90%
95%
100%
Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15
10,600
10,800
11,000
11,200
11,400
11,600
Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15
( )
97.1% 97.3%
48© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
95.4%96.5%
97.1% 97.3%
5 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15
May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15
Y-o-Y+4.8%
M-o-M+0.3%
3.03a –
3.03b –
Source: Bank of Thailand
458 401 380 317 270 256 267 2
07YE 08YE 09YE 10YE 11YE 12YE 13YE 14
7.31%
5.29% 4.85%3.60%
2.75% 2.26% 2.16% 2.
07YE 08YE 09YE 10YE 11YE 12YE 13YE 14
Gross NPLs
49© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
278 299 312 361
4YE 2015/Q1 2015/Q2 2015/Q3
16% 2.29% 2.38% 2.79%
4YE 2015/Q1 2015/Q2 2015/Q3
.
3.04 –
Source: Bank of Thailand
Note: (*) All Commercial Banks registered in Thailand, excluding foreign branches
12.4%13.3%
13.9%14.9%
14.0%
15.8% 16.1%
14.8%
16.2%15.7%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
( .)
17.2% . .
. .
50© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
14.5%
15.0%
15.5%
16.0%
16.5%
17.0%
17.5%
J F M A M J J A S O N D
2014
2015
3.05 –
31/10/2015
Source: The EconomistNote: (*) The Economist Poll
3M risk free interest rates Expected 2015 inf
14.4
12.4
8.3
7.1
6.5
4.7
3.8
3.0
2.5
2.3
1.8
1.6
1.5
0.9
0.4
0.3
0.1
-0.1
Brazil
Russia
Indonesia
India
Pakistan
Vietnam
Malaysia
China
Singapore*
Australia
Philippines
South Korea
Thailand
Taiwan
Hong Kong
US
Japan
Euro Area
8.9
6.4
5.1
3.9
2.5
2.5
1.6
0.2
1.7
2.4
0.8
0.8
0.1
3.1
0.3
0.7
0.1
= -
1%
flation* Real interest rates=
51© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
5.5
-2.8
1.9
2.0
2.6
2.2
1.3
1.4
2.3
0.6
-0.6
0.8
0.7
0.8
-2.7
0.0
-0.6
-0.2
15.2
. . SET 3.4%
Source: SET, The Economist
3.06a – SET
%
3.06c –
28/10/2015
3.06b –
SET MAI, ,
China (SSEB, $ terms)
France (CAC 40)
Germany (DAX)
Euro Area (FTSE Euro 100)
Japan (Nikkei 225)
US (NAScomp)
S Korea (KOSPI)
Pakistan (KSE)
China (SSEA)
US (S&P 500)
US (DJIA)
Australia (All Ord.)
India (BSE)
UK (FTSE 100)
HK (Hang Seng)
Malaysia (KLSE)
Thailand (SET)
Taiwan (TWI)
Singapore (STI)
Indonesia (JSX)
-2.0%
0.6%
-4.3% -4.0%
-2.4%
3.4%
May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15
-120.0
-100.0
-80.0
-60.0
-40.0
-20.0
0.0
J-15 F-15 M-15 A-15 M-15 J-15 J-15 A-15 S-15 O-15 N-15 D-15
SET
. . SET 3.4%
SET
2014
52© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
22.0%
14.5%
10.5%
9.8%
8.3%
7.6%
6.6%
6.0%
4.3%
1.5%
-0.2%
-0.3%
-1.7%
-2.0%
-2.7%
-4.2%
-5.9%
-6.9%
-9.6%
-11.8%
•
••
•••
• . . 1%
•
•
• 2.7-3.4% 201
• . .
•
• 9
• 9 2015
. .
Grow
thS
tability
2.8%
15 3.7-4.0% 2016
2015
54Copyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.com
2
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
4.1 –
-0.5%
1.3%
-1.9%
-1.0%
-3.8%
-0.7%-0.2%
-0.6%
1.0%
-1.6%
-1.0%
-4.2%
-2.5%
-0.8%
05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY
(Overall cash balances)
(Budget cash balances)
(Non budget cash balances)
9 10
2007-2010
2009
2012
10 2009
2014
2014
55© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
-3.4%
-2.1% -2.2%
-3.8%
-1.9%-2.3%
12FY 13FY 14FY
2015
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
4.2 –
1,2411,390 1,455 1,498 1,484
1,7511,902
2,075 2,158 2,076
-1,277 -1,280
-1,629 -1,598-1,849 -1,825 -1,930
-2,489 -2,424 -2,371
-36110
-174 -100-364
-75 -27
-414-267 -295
05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY
9 2015
9
56© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
-350
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
J F M A M J J A S O N D
2014
2015
9
4.3 –
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
-36
110
-174
-100
-364
-75
-27
-414
-45
88
-144
-96
-401
-266
-95
-4
05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY 12FY
(Overall cash balances)
(Budget cash balances)
(Non budget cash balances)
9 10
2007-2010
2010
2012
8 2015
57© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
-267-295
-21
466
-242
-305
-20
Y 13FY 14FY '15/9mo
4.4 –
% , 2015
Source: The EconomistNote: (*) The Economist Poll
-1.9
-2.0
-2.0
-2.1
-2.4
-2.6
-2.7
-2.8
-3.8
-4.0
-4.2
-5.1
-6.0
-6.8
South Korea
Hong Kong
Singapore
Taiwan
Philippines
Indonesia
Thailand
Euro Area
Australia
US
China
Russia
India
Malaysia
Vietnam
Pakistan
Brazil
Japan
2015
2%
58© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
0.3
0.0
-0.7
-1.0
2015
4.5a – 4.5b –
Source: Public Debt Management Office
8% 8% 7% 7% 6%External debtas percent of total
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 Aug-15 2011 2012
Direct Government debt
Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss& Prefunding debt
Public debt fromState Enterprises
(5.7 ) (43%)
( )
59© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2 2013 2014 Aug-15
Direct Government debt
Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss& Prefunding debt
Public debt fromState Enterprises
4.6 –
, 2014 ( )
Source: CIA fact book
228181
175142
134132131
119119
110107
1021011019896949494939290898786
1 Japan2 Zimbabwe
3 Greece4 Lebanon
5 Italy6 Jamaica7 Portugal8 Cyprus9 Ireland
10 Grenada11 Singapore12 Belgium13 Eritrea
14 Barbados15 Spain
16 France17 Iceland18 Egypt
19 Puerto rico20 Canada21 Bhutan22 Jordan
23 Antigua and barbuda24 UK
25 Cabo verde
39 United40 C43
48 Ur50 Pa
5663 Ma
6771 Th
72 Philip7
80 Vie93 M96 Sw
101 Arg103 South105 Hong
108 T126
129 N133 Indo
137147149 N
164 Saudi
Central Intelligence Agency
CIA 49%
2014
228%
Int’l rule ofthumb<60% ofGDP
60
7170676564
59545149484646
4140383737373030242213122
statesCroatia3 Israelruguayakistan6 Brazilalaysia7 Indiahailandppines8 LaosetnamMexicowedenentinaKoreag kongTurkeyNepalorwayonesia7 ChinaRussiaNigeriaarabia
© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
61
•
••
•••
• . . 1%
•
•
• 2.7-3.4% 201
• . .
•
• 9
• 9 2015
. .
Grow
thS
tability
2.8%
15 3.7-4.0% 2016
2015
62Copyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.com
9 2015
(F.
+
5.01 –
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
31.3
1.25.3
-5.0-1.2
4.9
10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY 15/9mo
29.8
10FY 1
-19.7
10FY 1
21.3
10FY 1
9 2015
O.B)
63© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
17.0
6.7 6.7
24.6 24.9
11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY 15/9mo
-8.1 -8.2-11.8 -9.2
-4.0
11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY 15/9mo
-7.7
6.8 0.1
-16.6 -16.0
11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY 15/9mo
5.02 –
Source: The Economist
As % of 2015 GDP*
Note: (*) The Economist Poll
21.2%
12.8%
6.7%
4.9%
4.1%
3.1%
2.8%
2.8%
2.8%
2.7%
2.5%
2.4%
-0.7%
-1.1%
-2.5%
-2.5%
-3.7%
-4.2%
Singapore Q2
Taiwan Q2
South Korea Aug
Russia Q3
Philippines Jun
China Q2
Hong Kong Q2
Japan Aug
Euro Area Aug
Vietnam 2014
Malaysia Q2
Thailand Q2
Pakistan Q2
India Q2
Indonesia Q2
US Q2
Australia Q2
Brazil Sep
-429.0
(Current Account)
12
Last 12 months, USD Billion
64© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
69.5
72.8
104.8
64.3
11.7
287.8
7.4
118.8
353.4
9.1
8.8
24.4
-2.6
-25.9
-21.6
-47.4
-79.3
2015
Source: Bank of Thailand
5.10a –
5.10b –
69.0 74.4 76.1 75.3100.6 104.3
130.
06YE 07YE 08YE 09YE 10YE 11YE 12YE
38.5% 35.4% 31.4% 28.8%35.2% 33.7%
38.0%
06YE 07YE 08YE 09YE 10YE 11YE 12YE
.
2009
65© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
7 139.9 140.7 136.6
E 13YE 14YE 15/2Q
% 38.2% 34.5% 33.2%
E 13YE 14YE 15/2Q
Source: Bank of Thailand
5.11a – 5.11b –
84% 80% 82% 82% 83%
16% 20% 18% 18% 17%
11YE 12YE 13YE 14YE 15/2Q
55% 56%
45% 44%
11YE 12Y
1 1
66© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
% 57% 60% 60%
% 43% 40% 40%
YE 13YE 14YE 15/2Q
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
5.12a – 5.12b –
340%370%
312%
279% 277%293%
10YE 11YE 12YE 13YE 14YE 15/2Q
4.7%
3.4%
10FY 11FY
4.7% 8.1%
(293%)
.
67© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
4.2% 4.0%
4.7%
8.1%
12FY 13FY 14FY 15/2Q
5.13a – *
5.13b –
**
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
Note: (*) Including Net Forward position(**) For the last period using average monthly import value during the last 12 months
6.99.1
7.9
13.812.6
10.8 9.9
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
73.9 106.5 118.0 154.1191.7 206.4 205.8
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Net
forward position .
currency forward contracts
( )
4
2005
10
68© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
9.1 9.5 9.7
2 2013 2014 Sep-15
8 190.2 180.2 168.8
2 2013 2014 Sep-15
. .
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
Note: (*) Positive numbers mean the Baht has been depreciated against those currencies, the opposite applies to negative numbers
USD = US$, GBP = Pound Sterling, EUR = Euro, JPY = Yen (per 100), CNY = Yuan Renminbi, SGD = Singapore $,
MYR = Malaysia Ringgit, PHP = Philippines Peso, IDR = Indonesia Rupiah (per 1,000), INR = India Rupee,KRW = Korea Won, TWD = Taiwan $, VND = Vietnam Dong, MXN = Mexico Peso, AUD = Australia $
5.17b –
%
5.17a – 2007 = 100
Baht
MYR 8.429
MXN 2.15
AUD 25.6645
EUR 39.4362
IDR 2.7675
JPY 29.7506
SGD 25.6677
KRW 0.0313
TWD 1.0991
INR 0.5772
PHP 0.7737
GBP 54.9621
CNY 5.6739
VND 0.0016
USD 35.7589
100.0
102.0
104.0
106.0
108.0
110.0
112.0
114.0
Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15
M o M0.0%
Y o Y0.4%
Baht appreciates
Baht depreciates
(Nominal Effective
Exchange Rate)
23
1
. .
1
0.4%
, 30/10/2015
depreciates Baht appreciates
69© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
19.4
13.0
12.8
4.6
4.0
0.5
0.0
-1.0
-2.3
-2.4
-4.5
-4.8
-5.3
-6.3
-8.7
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