Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments · 2017. 5. 22. · Jan.2015 Apr.2015 Jul.2015 Nov.2015 Feb.2016 Jun.2016 Sep.2016 Jan.2017 Apr.2017 Jul.2017 Sep.2017

Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments

Directorate Monetary Policy and Financial Market Analysis

Financial Market Analysis Department

2017 május

May 2017

Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments 19/05/17

2

Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market

developments *

19 May 2017

dummy

As of the 30th of June, 2005 the Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary) publishes a comprehensive chart-pack about the latest information in financial markets and the macro-economy. Our aim is to provide analysts and the public with a frequently updated, easy-to-use, clear-cut data set, in order to promote better knowledge and understanding of the current economic and financial market situation. The updated chart-pack is published on the day of each rate-setting meeting at 5 pm.

Earlier versions of the chart-pack are accessible on the website of Magyar Nemzeti Bank via the following address.

http://www.mnb.hu/en/publications/studies-publications-statistics/chart-pack-on-recent-economic-and-financial-market-developments

Questions and comments are welcome, and should be addressed to [email protected].

* The data sources of this document, in whole or in part, do not fall within the scope of Act XLVI of 1993 on statistics, therefore the data contained in the tables and charts are not to be considered as official statistical data. Magyar Nemzeti Bank excludes all liability for any damage caused by the usage of the herein published non-official statistical data.


3

Source: HSCO, MNB Note: Seasonally adjusted year-on-year growth rates (HSCO adjustments). The time series of core inflation have changed due to the change in the calculation method.

1. Development of inflation and underlying inflation indicators

Jan.

2004

Jun.

2004

Nov.

2004

Apr.2

005

Sep.

2005

Feb.

2006

Jul.2

006

Dec.

2006

May

.200

7

Oct

.200

7

Mar

.200

8

Aug.

2008

Jan.

2009

Jun.

2009

Nov.

2009

Apr.2

010

Sep.

2010

Feb.

2011

Jul.2

011

Dec.

2011

May

.201

2

Oct

.201

2

Mar

.201

3

Aug.

2013

Jan.

2014

Jun.

2014

Nov.

2014

Apr.2

015

Sep.

2015

Feb.

2016

Jul.2

016

Dec.

2016

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

CPI Core CPI Demand-sensitive CPI Sticky price inflation

percent percent

Source: MNB, HCSO. Note: the fan chart represent the uncertainty arount the central projection. Overall, the coloured area represents a 90 per cent probability. The central area containing the central projection for the consumer price index illustrated by the dotted line (as the mode of distribution) refers to 30 per cent of the probability. The horizontal lines show the value of the announced inflation target and the tolerance band.

2. Fanchart of the inflation forecast

Jan.

2010

Jul.2

010

Jan.

2011

Jul.2

011

Jan.

2012

Jul.2

012

Jan.

2013

Jul.2

013

Jan.

2014

Jul.2

014

Jan.

2015

Jul.2

015

Jan.

2016

Jul.2

016

Jan.

2017

Jul.2

017

Jan.

2018

Jul.2

018

Jan.

2019

Jul.2

019-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7percent percent


4

3. Decomposition of the Consumer Price Index

Weight -

Weight 2017 JAN 2017 FEB 2017 MAR 2017 APR 2017

Consumer Price Index 100.0 2.3 2.9 2.7 2.2

Thereof:

Unprocessed food 6.2 0.1 0.4 -0.3 -0.4

Processed food 13.1 1.7 2.2 3.0 2.5

Manufactured goods 22.9 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5

Market services 23.0 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.4

Non-regulated household energy 1.0 1.0 2.2 3.8 4.5

Alcohol, tobacco 9.9 2.5 2.8 2.6 2.9

Gasoline prices 7.5 15.2 19.9 17.1 10.8

Regulated prices 16.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4

Core Consumer Price Index 68.9 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.9

CPI without tax changes 100.0 2.8 3.3 3.1 2.7 Source HCSO, MNB decomposition Notes: annual growth rates (%); The time series of industrial products, market services, regulated prices have changed because the method of the core inflation developed by the CSO and the NBH has broken down several items (like pharmaceutical products, the telephone, the other travels, the TV fee) from 2009.

Source: Eurostat Note: annual growth rate.

4. Harmonised index of consumer prices

Jan.

2000

Aug.

2000

Feb.

2001

Sep.

2001

Mar

.200

2

Sep.

2002

Mar

.200

3

Oct

.200

3

Apr.2

004

Nov.

2004

May

.200

5

Nov.

2005

May

.200

6

Dec.

2006

Jun.

2007

Dec.

2007

Jun.

2008

Jan.

2009

Jul.2

009

Feb.

2010

Aug.

2010

Feb.

2011

Aug.

2011

Mar

.201

2

Sep.

2012

Apr.2

013

Oct

.201

3

Apr.2

014

Oct

.201

4

May

.201

5

Dec.

2015

Jun.

2016

Dec.

2016

-5

0

5

10

15

20

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Hungary Poland Czech Republic Slovakia Reference Average

percent percent


5

Source: Thomson ReutersNote: the red continuous line represents the trimmed mean calculated by cutting off the lowest and the highest value, the brown line shows the inflation target of MNB.

5. Market expectations for the inflation rate in current yearJa

n.20

15

Mar

.201

5

May

.201

5

Jul.2

015

Sep.

2015

Nov.

2015

Jan.

2016

Mar

.201

6

May

.201

6

Jul.2

016

Sep.

2016

Nov.

2016

Jan.

2017

Mar

.201

7-1

0

1

2

3

4

-1

0

1

2

3

4

percent percent

Source: Thomson ReutersNote: the red continuous line represents the trimmed mean calculated by cutting off the lowest and the highest value, the brown line shows the inflation target of MNB.

6. Market expectations for the inflation rate next year

Jan.

2016

Feb.

2016

Mar

.201

6

Apr.2

016

May

.201

6

Jun.

2016

Jul.2

016

Aug.

2016

Sep.

2016

Oct

.201

6

Nov.

2016

Dec.

2016

Jan.

2017

Feb.

2017

Mar

.201

7

Apr.2

017

May

.201

71,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

percent percent


6

Source: BloombergNote: Bloomberg collection; based on new FX forecasts. 2-weeks moving average, reverse scale.

7. Expectations for HUF/EUR exchange rate (Bloomberg collection)

May

.201

6

Jun.

2016

Jul.2

016

Aug

.201

6

Sep.

2016

Sep.

2016

Oct

.201

6

Nov

.201

6

Dec

.201

6

Jan.

2017

Feb.

2017

Mar

.201

7

Mar

.201

7

Apr

.201

7

May

.201

7

300

305

310

315

320

325

300

305

310

315

320

325

Q22017 Q32017 Current rate

HUF/EUR HUF/EUR

Source: Thomson Reuters, MNB. Note: reverse scale, the red dots represent analysts average exchange rate expecatations according to the most recent Reuters FX Poll.

8. Expectations for HUF/EUR exchange rate

Jan.

2015

Apr

.201

5

Jul.2

015

Nov

.201

5

Feb.

2016

Jun.

2016

Sep.

2016

Jan.

2017

Apr

.201

7

Jul.2

017

Sep.

2017

Dec

.201

7

Feb.

2018

Apr

.201

8

290

295

300

305

310

315

320

325

330

290

295

300

305

310

315

320

325

330

HUF/EUR HUF/EUR

Source: Bloomberg, MNB.Futures are based on the latest available futures prices. Technical assumption underlying is used in our inflation forecast published in the most recent Quarterly Report on inflation.

9. Spot and futures Brent crude oil price

Jan.

2012

Mar

.201

2M

ay.2

012

Jul.2

012

Sep.

2012

Nov

.201

2

Feb.

2013

Apr.

2013

Jun.

2013

Aug.

2013

Oct

.201

3

Jan.

2014

Mar

.201

4

May

.201

4

Jul.2

014

Oct

.201

4

Dec

.201

4

Feb.

2015

Apr.

2015

Jun.

2015

Sep.

2015

Nov

.201

5

Jan.

2016

Mar

.201

6

May

.201

6

Aug.

2016

Oct

.201

6

Dec

.201

6

Feb.

2017

Apr.

2017

Aug.

2017

Oct

.201

7

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Spot price Futures pricing MNB assumption

USD/barrel USD/barrel


7

Source: Reuters, HCSO, Eurostat, ÁKK, MNBNote: Real interest rate is calculated from 1-year zero coupon yield and analaysts corresponding 1-year forward inflation expectations derived from the Reuters-poll by the MNB. Real exchange rate is calculated from the change of the forint relative to euro, adjusted by the corresponding Hungarian CPI and the EMU is HICP. (1 January 1997=100%, increase represents appreciation)

10. Monetary conditionsJa

n.20

02

Jul.2

002

Jan.

2003

Jul.2

003

Jan.

2004

Jul.2

004

Jan.

2005

Jul.2

005

Jan.

2006

Jul.2

006

Jan.

2007

Oct.2

007

Apr.2

008

Oct.2

008

Apr.2

009

Oct.2

009

Apr.2

010

Oct.2

010

Apr.2

011

Oct.2

011

Apr.2

012

Oct.2

012

Apr.2

013

Oct.2

013

Apr.2

014

Oct.2

014

Apr.2

015

Oct.2

015

Apr.2

016

Oct.2

016

Apr.2

017-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

120

125

130

135

140

145

150

155

160

165

170

1-year real interest rate Real exchange rate based on CPI (RHS)

percent percent

Source: MNB.

11. Real growth rate of monetary aggregates (year-on-year basis)

Jan.

2008

May

.200

8

Sep.

2008

Jan.

2009

May

.200

9

Sep.

2009

Jan.

2010

May

.201

0

Sep.

2010

Jan.

2011

May

.201

1

Sep.

2011

Jan.

2012

May

.201

2

Sep.

2012

Jan.

2013

May

.201

3

Sep.

2013

Jan.

2014

May

.201

4

Sep.

2014

Jan.

2015

May

.201

5

Sep.

2015

Feb.

2016

Jun.

2016

Oct

.201

6

Feb.

2017

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

M1 M2 M3

percent percent


8

Source: MNB.

12. Real growth rate of monetary aggregates (annualized from quarterly rates)Ju

n.20

11

Sep.

2011

Dec.

2011

Mar

.201

2

Jun.

2012

Sep.

2012

Dec.

2012

Mar

.201

3

Jun.

2013

Sep.

2013

Dec.

2013

Mar

.201

4

Jun.

2014

Sep.

2014

Dec.

2014

Mar

.201

5

Jun.

2015

Sep.

2015

Dec.

2015

Mar

.201

6

Jun.

2016

Sep.

2016

Dec.

2016

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

M1 M2 M3

percent percent

Source: HSCONote: year-on-year change.

13. Annual GDP growth

Mar

.200

2

Dec.

2002

Sep.

2003

Jun.

2004

Mar

.200

5

Dec.

2005

Sep.

2006

Jun.

2007

Mar

.200

8

Dec.

2008

Sep.

2009

Jun.

2010

Mar

.201

1

Dec.

2011

Sep.

2012

Jun.

2013

Mar

.201

4

Dec.

2014

Sep.

2015

Jun.

2016

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

percent percent


9

Source: MNB, HSCO.

14. Quarterly GDP growthM

ar.2

002

Dec.

2002

Sep.

2003

Jun.

2004

Mar

.200

5

Dec.

2005

Sep.

2006

Jun.

2007

Mar

.200

8

Dec.

2008

Sep.

2009

Jun.

2010

Mar

.201

1

Dec.

2011

Sep.

2012

Jun.

2013

Mar

.201

4

Dec.

2014

Sep.

2015

Jun.

2016

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

percent percent

Source: MNB, HSCO.

15. Contribution to annual GDP growth

Mar

.200

6

Sep.

2006

Mar

.200

7

Sep.

2007

Mar

.200

8

Sep.

2008

Mar

.200

9

Sep.

2009

Mar

.201

0

Sep.

2010

Mar

.201

1

Sep.

2011

Mar

.201

2

Sep.

2012

Mar

.201

3

Sep.

2013

Mar

.201

4

Sep.

2014

Mar

.201

5

Sep.

2015

Mar

.201

6

Sep.

2016

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Government expenditure Household consumption Gross capital formation Change in inventories Net export

GDP growth

percent percent


10

Source: HSCO.

16. Decomposition of GDP growthM

ar.2

010

Jun.

2010

Sep.

2010

Dec.

2010

Mar

.201

1

Jun.

2011

Sep.

2011

Dec.

2011

Mar

.201

2

Jun.

2012

Sep.

2012

Dec.

2012

Mar

.201

3

Jun.

2013

Sep.

2013

Dec.

2013

Mar

.201

4

Jun.

2014

Sep.

2014

Dec.

2014

Mar

.201

5

Jun.

2015

Sep.

2015

Dec.

2015

Mar

.201

6

Jun.

2016

Sep.

2016

Dec.

2016

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Agriculture Construction Industry Commuity services Taxes and subsidies Market services

GDP at market price

percent percent

Source: MNB, HSCO.

17. Contribution to annual GDP growth in the region

Czech Republic Hungary Poland Slovakia

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Final consumption Gross fixed capital formation Change in inventories Net exports GDP

percent percent


11

Source: MNB, HSCO Note: contribution in percentage points

18. Decomposition of GDP growth (income approach)M

ar.2

011

Jun.

2011

Sep.

2011

Dec.

2011

Mar

.201

2

Jun.

2012

Sep.

2012

Dec.

2012

Mar

.201

3

Jun.

2013

Sep.

2013

Dec.

2013

Mar

.201

4

Jun.

2014

Sep.

2014

Dec.

2014

Mar

.201

5

Jun.

2015

Sep.

2015

Dec.

2015

Mar

.201

6

Jun.

2016

Sep.

2016

Dec.

2016

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Wages Profit Taxes GDP value index

percent percent

Source: MNB, HCSO.Note: the fan chart represents the uncertainty around the central projection. Overall, the coloured area represents a 90 per cent probability. The central area containing the central projection for the GDP illustrated by the dotted line (as the mode of distribution) refers to 30 per cent of the probability. Seasonally adjusted and reconciled data. The baseline forecast is based on backcast and nowcast adjusted by anticipated revisions.

19. Fanchart of the GDP forecast

Jan.

2010

Jul.2

010

Jan.

2011

Jul.2

011

Jan.

2012

Jul.2

012

Jan.

2013

Jul.2

013

Jan.

2014

Jul.2

014

Jan.

2015

Jul.2

015

Jan.

2016

Jul.2

016

Jan.

2017

Jul.2

017

Jan.

2018

Jul.2

018

Jan.

2019

Jul.2

019-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

MNB forecast Actual HCSO data

percent percent


12

Source: Eurostat Note: annual growth rate.

20. GDP growth rate in CEEM

ar.2

002

Sep.

2002

Mar

.200

3

Sep.

2003

Mar

.200

4

Sep.

2004

Mar

.200

5

Sep.

2005

Mar

.200

6

Sep.

2006

Mar

.200

7

Sep.

2007

Mar

.200

8

Sep.

2008

Mar

.200

9

Sep.

2009

Mar

.201

0

Sep.

2010

Mar

.201

1

Sep.

2011

Mar

.201

2

Sep.

2012

Mar

.201

3

Sep.

2013

Mar

.201

4

Sep.

2014

Mar

.201

5

Sep.

2015

Mar

.201

6

Sep.

2016

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Hungary Poland Czech Republic Slovakia

percent percent

Source: MNB, HCSO.

21. Change in industrial production

May

.201

1

Aug.

2011

Nov.

2011

Feb.

2012

May

.201

2

Aug.

2012

Nov.

2012

Feb.

2013

May

.201

3

Aug.

2013

Nov.

2013

Feb.

2014

May

.201

4

Aug.

2014

Nov.

2014

Feb.

2015

May

.201

5

Aug.

2015

Nov.

2015

Feb.

2016

May

.201

6

Aug.

2016

Nov.

2016

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Monthly change (RHS) Yearly change (seasonally adjusted) Yearly (original)

percent percent


13

Source: HSCO, European Commision.Note: ESI Index is a survey on business confiedence by the European Commission. Chart represents the industrial sub-index.

22. Industrial production and new export ordersJa

n.20

02

Jul.2

002

Jan.

2003

Jul.2

003

Jan.

2004

Jul.2

004

Jan.

2005

Jul.2

005

Jan.

2006

Jul.2

006

Jan.

2007

Jul.2

007

Jan.

2008

Jul.2

008

Jan.

2009

Jul.2

009

Jan.

2010

Jul.2

010

Jan.

2011

Jul.2

011

Jan.

2012

Jul.2

012

Jan.

2013

Jul.2

013

Jan.

2014

Jul.2

014

Jan.

2015

Jul.2

015

Mar

.201

6

Sep.

2016

Mar

.201

7-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

New export orders (year/year) Industrial output (year/year) ESI confidence index (RHS)

percent

Source: MNB, HCSO.

23. Developements on the real estate market

Mar

.200

2

Sep.

2002

Mar

.200

3

Sep.

2003

Mar

.200

4

Sep.

2004

Mar

.200

5

Sep.

2005

Mar

.200

6

Sep.

2006

Mar

.200

7

Sep.

2007

Mar

.200

8

Sep.

2008

Mar

.200

9

Sep.

2009

Mar

.201

0

Sep.

2010

Mar

.201

1

Sep.

2011

Mar

.201

2

Sep.

2012

Mar

.201

3

Sep.

2013

Mar

.201

4

Sep.

2014

Mar

.201

5

Sep.

2015

Mar

.201

6

Sep.

2016

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

Given licenses (seasonally adjusted) Built homes (seasonally adjusted) Finished new homes (yearly index, original)

Given licenses (yearly index, original)

percent percent


14

Source: HCSO, FHBNote: 2010=100, inflation adjusted indices.

24. Developement of house pricesM

ar.2

007

Sep.

2007

Mar

.200

8

Sep.

2008

Mar

.200

9

Sep.

2009

Mar

.201

0

Sep.

2010

Mar

.201

1

Sep.

2011

Mar

.201

2

Sep.

2012

Mar

.201

3

Sep.

2013

Mar

.201

4

Sep.

2014

Mar

.201

5

Sep.

2015

Mar

.201

6

Sep.

2016

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

KSH used house-index KSH new house index FHB real house-price index

percent percent

Source: European Comission.

25. Household confiedence index (reweighted)

Mar

.200

2

Sep.

2002

Mar

.200

3

Sep.

2003

Mar

.200

4

Sep.

2004

Mar

.200

5

Sep.

2005

Mar

.200

6

Sep.

2006

Mar

.200

7

Sep.

2007

Mar

.200

8

Sep.

2008

Mar

.200

9

Sep.

2009

Mar

.201

0

Sep.

2010

Mar

.201

1

Sep.

2011

Mar

.201

2

Sep.

2012

Mar

.201

3

Sep.

2013

Mar

.201

4

Sep.

2014

Mar

.201

5

Sep.

2015

Mar

.201

6

Jun.

2016

Dec.

2016

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10


15

Source: HCSO, MNB calculation.

26. Change in export and import volumesJu

n.20

11

Sep.

2011

Dec.

2011

Mar

.201

2

Jun.

2012

Sep.

2012

Dec.

2012

Mar

.201

3

Jun.

2013

Sep.

2013

Dec.

2013

Mar

.201

4

Jun.

2014

Sep.

2014

Dec.

2014

Mar

.201

5

Jun.

2015

Sep.

2015

Dec.

2015

Mar

.201

6

Jun.

2016

Sep.

2016

Dec.

2016

5000

5500

6000

6500

7000

7500

8000

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Export Import Balance (RHS)

EUR millions EUR millions

Source: HCSO.Note: seasonally adjusted annualised monthly growth rates. The data of total retail sales contain beyond the narrow retail sales the turnover of motor vehicles and automotive fuel as well.

27. Total volume of retail trade

Jan.

2002

Jul.2

002

Jan.

2003

Jun.

2003

Dec.

2003

May

.200

4O

ct.2

004

Apr.2

005

Jan.

2006

Jun.

2006

Dec.

2006

May

.200

7

Nov.

2007

May

.200

8

Nov.

2008

May

.200

9

Nov.

2009

Apr.2

010

Sep.

2010

Mar

.201

1Au

g.20

11Ja

n.20

12

Jul.2

012

Dec.

2012

May

.201

3

Nov.

2013

Apr.2

014

Oct

.201

4

Jul.2

015

Feb.

2016

Jul.2

016

Jan.

2017

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Retail sales 3-month moving average

percent percent


16

Source: ACEA.

28. Quarterly growth rates of automobile salesSe

p.20

03

Mar

.200

4

Sep.

2004

Mar

.200

5

Sep.

2005

Mar

.200

6

Sep.

2006

Mar

.200

7

Sep.

2007

Mar

.200

8

Sep.

2008

Mar

.200

9

Sep.

2009

Mar

.201

0

Sep.

2010

Mar

.201

1

Sep.

2011

Mar

.201

2

Sep.

2012

Mar

.201

3

Sep.

2013

Mar

.201

4

Sep.

2014

Mar

.201

5

Sep.

2015

Mar

.201

6

Sep.

2016

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Car sales 3-quarter moving average

percent percent

Source: IFO; European Committee.Note: IFO: Business Climate Index of the German Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (Average of year 2000 = 100); EABCI: Business Climate Index of the European Committee (deviations from the long-run average), seasonally adjusted.

29. Business climate indices in the EMU

Jan.

1991

Nov.

1991

Sep.

1992

Jul.1

993

May

.199

4

Mar

.199

5

Jan.

1996

Nov.

1996

Sep.

1997

Jul.1

998

May

.199

9

Mar

.200

0

Jan.

2001

Nov.

2001

Sep.

2002

Jul.2

003

May

.200

4

Mar

.200

5

Jan.

2006

Nov.

2006

Sep.

2007

Jul.2

008

May

.200

9

Mar

.201

0

Jan.

2011

Nov.

2011

Sep.

2012

Jul.2

013

May

.201

4

Mar

.201

5

Feb.

2016

Dec.

2016

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

EABCI IFO (RHS)


17

Source: Eurostat.

30. The annual growth rate of the volume of imported goods and servicesJa

n.20

02

Jul.2

002

Jan.

2003

Jul.2

003

Jan.

2004

Jul.2

004

Jan.

2005

Jul.2

005

Jan.

2006

Jul.2

006

Jan.

2007

Jul.2

007

Jan.

2008

Jul.2

008

Jan.

2009

Jul.2

009

Jan.

2010

Jul.2

010

Jan.

2011

Jul.2

011

Jan.

2012

Jul.2

012

Jan.

2013

Jul.2

013

Jan.

2014

Jul.2

014

Jan.

2015

Jul.2

015

Dec.

2015

Jun.

2016

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Eurozone USA Japan

percent percent

Source: Eurostat Note: quarterly growth rate.

31. GDP growth rate in the EMU, US and Japan

Mar

.199

8

Dec.

1998

Sep.

1999

Jun.

2000

Mar

.200

1

Dec.

2001

Sep.

2002

Jun.

2003

Mar

.200

4

Dec.

2004

Sep.

2005

Jun.

2006

Mar

.200

7

Dec.

2007

Sep.

2008

Jun.

2009

Mar

.201

0

Dec.

2010

Sep.

2011

Jun.

2012

Mar

.201

3

Dec.

2013

Sep.

2014

Jun.

2015

Mar

.201

6-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Eurozone USA Japan

percent percent


18

Source: MNB.

32. Net lending of domestic sectorsM

ar.2

002

Sep

.200

2

Mar

.200

3

Sep

.200

3

Mar

.200

4

Sep

.200

4

Mar

.200

5

Sep

.200

5

Mar

.200

6

Sep

.200

6

Mar

.200

7

Sep

.200

7

Mar

.200

8

Sep

.200

8

Mar

.200

9

Sep

.200

9

Mar

.201

0

Sep

.201

0

Mar

.201

1

Sep

.201

1

Mar

.201

2

Sep

.201

2

Mar

.201

3

Sep

.201

3

Mar

.201

4

Sep

.201

4

Mar

.201

5

Sep

.201

5

Mar

.201

6

Sep

.201

6

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

Non-financial institutions Households (preliminary) Government (preliminary)

percent of GDP percent of GDP

Source: MNB.

33. Main financial assets held by households

Ap

r.20

10

Jul.2

010

Oct

.201

0

Jan

.201

1

Ap

r.20

11

Jul.2

011

Oct

.201

1

Jan

.201

2

Ap

r.20

12

Jul.2

012

Oct

.201

2

Jan

.201

3

Ap

r.20

13

Jul.2

013

Oct

.201

3

Jan

.201

4

Ap

r.20

14

Jul.2

014

Oct

.201

4

Jan

.201

5

Ap

r.20

15

Jul.2

015

Oct

.201

5

Jan

.201

6

Jun

.201

6

Sep

.201

6

Dec

.201

6

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

6000

6200

6400

6600

6800

7000

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

Government securities Bank bond Mutual funds Deposit (RHS)

HUF billions HUF billions


19

Source: MNB.

34. External financing capacity in the CEE countriesM

ar.2

004

Sep

.200

4

Mar

.200

5

Sep

.200

5

Mar

.200

6

Sep

.200

6

Mar

.200

7

Sep

.200

7

Mar

.200

8

Sep

.200

8

Mar

.200

9

Sep

.200

9

Mar

.201

0

Sep

.201

0

Mar

.201

1

Sep

.201

1

Mar

.201

2

Sep

.201

2

Mar

.201

3

Sep

.201

3

Mar

.201

4

Sep

.201

4

Mar

.201

5

Sep

.201

5

Mar

.201

6

Sep

.201

6

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Hungary Poland Czech Republic Slovakia

percent of GDP percent of GDP

Source: MNBNote: Data on 31/03/2015 in display order: -394; 1473; -1808; -40 (FX-loan conversion).

35. Net borrowing of the households

Jan

.200

8

May

.200

8

Sep

.200

8

Jan

.200

9

May

.200

9

Sep

.200

9

Jan

.201

0

May

.201

0

Sep

.201

0

Jan

.201

1

May

.201

1

Sep

.201

1

Jan

.201

2

May

.201

2

Sep

.201

2

Jan

.201

3

May

.201

3

Sep

.201

3

Jan

.201

4

May

.201

4

Sep

.201

4

Jan

.201

5

Jun

.201

5

Oct

.201

5

Feb

.201

6

Jun

.201

6

Oct

.201

6

Feb

.201

7

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

Consumption loans, other loans Mortgages (in HUF) Mortgages (in foreing currency) Total



20

Source: MNBNote: credit conditions estimated by lending officers. Negative value indicates easing, positive indicates tightening compared to the last quarter (before 2009 to previous half a year).

36. Creditworthiness standards and credit conditions in the household sectorDe

c.20

02

Dec.

2003

Dec.

2004

Dec.

2005

Dec.

2006

Dec.

2007

Dec.

2008

Jun.

2009

Dec.

2009

Jun.

2010

Dec.

2010

Jun.

2011

Dec.

2011

Jun.

2012

Dec.

2012

Jun.

2013

Dec.

2013

Jun.

2014

Dec.

2014

Jun.

2015

Dec.

2015

Jun.

2016

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

Housing Consumption loans, other loans

percent percent

Source: MNBNote: credit conditions estimated by lending officers. Negative value indicates easing, positive indicates tightening compared to the last quarter (before 2009 to previous half a year).

37. Creditworthiness standards and credit conditions in the corporate sector

Jun.

2008

Mar

.200

9

Sep.

2009

Mar

.201

0

Sep.

2010

Mar

.201

1

Sep.

2011

Mar

.201

2

Sep.

2012

Mar

.201

3

Sep.

2013

Mar

.201

4

Sep.

2014

Mar

.201

5

Sep.

2015

Mar

.201

6

Sep.

2016

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

SMEs Medium and large companies Real estate loans

percent percent


21

Source: HCSO, seasonally adjusted by MNBNote: annual growth rates.

38. Wage growth in private sectorJa

n.20

04

Jun.

2004

Nov.

2004

Apr.2

005

Jan.

2006

Jun.

2006

Dec.

2006

May

.200

7

Oct

.200

7

Mar

.200

8

Aug.

2008

Jan.

2009

Jun.

2009

Nov.

2009

Apr.2

010

Sep.

2010

Feb.

2011

Jul.2

011

Dec.

2011

May

.201

2

Oct

.201

2

Mar

.201

3

Aug.

2013

Jan.

2014

Jun.

2014

Nov.

2014

Apr.2

015

Nov.

2015

Apr.2

016

Sep.

2016

Feb.

2017

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Gross average wage Gross average wage withouth premium

percent percent

Source: HCSO, seasonally adjusted by MNBNote: annual growth rates.

39. Unit labour cost in the private sector

Mar

.200

2

Sep.

2002

Mar

.200

3

Sep.

2003

Mar

.200

4

Sep.

2004

Mar

.200

5

Sep.

2005

Mar

.200

6

Sep.

2006

Mar

.200

7

Sep.

2007

Mar

.200

8

Sep.

2008

Mar

.200

9

Sep.

2009

Mar

.201

0

Sep.

2010

Mar

.201

1

Sep.

2011

Mar

.201

2

Sep.

2012

Mar

.201

3

Sep.

2013

Mar

.201

4

Sep.

2014

Mar

.201

5

Sep.

2015

Mar

.201

6

Sep.

2016

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

ULC 4-quarters moving average

percent percent


22

Source: MNB, HCSO.

40. Wage growth in the manufacturing and market service sectorJa

n.20

04

Jun.

2004

Nov.

2004

Apr.2

005

Jan.

2006

Jun.

2006

Dec.

2006

May

.200

7

Oct

.200

7

Mar

.200

8

Aug.

2008

Jan.

2009

Jun.

2009

Nov.

2009

Apr.2

010

Sep.

2010

Feb.

2011

Jul.2

011

Dec.

2011

May

.201

2

Oct

.201

2

Mar

.201

3

Aug.

2013

Jan.

2014

Jun.

2014

Nov.

2014

Apr.2

015

Sep.

2015

Feb.

2016

Jul.2

016

Dec.

2016

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Gross average wage (market services) Gross average wage (manufacturing)

percent percent

Source: HCSO.Notes: levels, seasonally adjusted.

41. Activity and unemployment

Jun.

2011

Sep.

2011

Dec.

2011

Mar

.201

2

Jun.

2012

Sep.

2012

Dec.

2012

Mar

.201

3

Jun.

2013

Sep.

2013

Dec.

2013

Mar

.201

4

Jun.

2014

Sep.

2014

Dec.

2014

Mar

.201

5

Jun.

2015

Sep.

2015

Dec.

2015

Mar

.201

6

Jun.

2016

Sep.

2016

Dec.

2016

3700

3900

4100

4300

4500

4700

4900

5100

5300

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Employed Unemployment (RHS) Actives (calculated)

thousand persons thousand persons


23

Source: HCSO.Note: average of year 2000 = 100%.

42. ULC based real effective exchange rate of the HUFM

ar.2

000

Dec.

2000

Sep.

2001

Jun.

2002

Mar

.200

3

Dec.

2003

Sep.

2004

Jun.

2005

Mar

.200

6

Dec.

2006

Sep.

2007

Jun.

2008

Mar

.200

9

Dec.

2009

Sep.

2010

Jun.

2011

Mar

.201

2

Dec.

2012

Sep.

2013

Jun.

2014

Mar

.201

5

Dec.

2015

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

Source: HCSO.Note: average of year 2000 = 100%. PPI based effective rates changed due to statistical revision on 24th March 2017.

43. CPI and PPI based real effective exchange rates of the HUF

Jan.

1998

Oct

.199

8

Jul.1

999

Apr.2

000

Jan.

2001

Oct

.200

1

Jul.2

002

Apr.2

003

Jan.

2004

Oct

.200

4

Jul.2

005

Apr.2

006

Jan.

2007

Oct

.200

7

Jul.2

008

Apr.2

009

Jan.

2010

Oct

.201

0

Jul.2

011

Apr.2

012

Jan.

2013

Oct

.201

3

Jul.2

014

Apr.2

015

Jan.

2016

Oct

.201

660

70

80

90

100

110

120

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

CPI based real effective exchange rate) PPI based real effective exchange rate


24

Source: MNB, ÁKKNote: Individual dot shows the budget forecast. Cumulated balance.

44. Monthly evolution of budget deficit

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec-1400

-1200

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

-1400

-1200

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


Source: MNB, ÁKK.Note: Redumptions in the recent quarter are included.

45. Quarterly maturity structure of the government debt

Jun.

2017

Mar

.201

8

Dec.

2018

Sep.

2019

Jun.

2020

Mar

.202

1

Dec.

2021

Sep.

2022

Jun.

2023

Mar

.202

4

Sep.

2025

Jun.

2026

Mar

.202

7

Dec.

2027

Sep.

2028

Jun.

2029

Mar

.203

0

Dec.

2030

Sep.

2031

Jun.

2032

Mar

.203

3

Dec.

2033

Sep.

2034

Jun.

2035

Mar

.203

6

Dec.

2036

Sep.

2037

Jun.

2038

Mar

.203

9

Dec.

2039

Sep.

2040

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Government bonds T-bills Retail government bonds HUF loans IMF-EU loan FX bonds

Other FX debt



25

46. The latest central projection of the MNB compared to other prognoses

2016 2017 2018 2019

CPI (annual average growth rate, %)

MNB (MAR 2017) 0.4 2.6 3.0 3.0 Consensus Economics (APR 2017)¹ 0.4 2.0 - 2.6 - 3.3 2.2 - 2.8 - 3.5 European Commission (MAY 2017) 0.4 2.9 3.2 IMF (APR 2017) 0.4 2.5 3.3 3.0 OECD (NOV 2016) 0.1 1.4 2.5 Reuters survey (APR 2017)¹ 2.3 - 2.7 - 3.1 2.4 - 2.9 - 3.5 2.8 - 3.0 - 3.5 GDP (annual growth rate, %)

MNB (MAR 2017) 2.2 (2.0) 3.6 3.7 3.2 Consensus Economics (APR 2017)¹ 2.0 2.2 - 3.2 - 4.0 2.2 - 3.1 - 4.1 European Commission (MAY 2017) 2.0 3.6 3.5 IMF (APR 2017) 2.0 2.9 3.0 2.6 OECD (NOV 2016) 1.7 2.5 2.2 Reuters survey (APR 2017)¹ 2.7 - 3.5 - 4.0 2.2 - 3.2 - 4.1 Current account balance³

MNB (MAR 2017) 4.9 3.3 2.4 2.9 European Commission (MAY 2017) 5.0 3.5 2.8 IMF (APR 2017) 4.3 3.7 3.0 2.2 OECD(NOV 2016) 6.8 6.7 5.7 Budget deficit (ESA-95 method()3,4

MNB (MAR 2017) -1.3 (-1.6) - (-2.0) (-2.0) - (-2.2) (-1.8) - (-2.0) Consensus Economics (APR 2017)¹ -1.7 (-0.2) - (-2.2) - (-2.9) (-0.1) - (-2.4) - (-3.0) European Commission (MAY 2017) -1.8 -2.3 -2.4 IMF (APR 2017) -1.9 -2.9 -2.8 -2.7 OECD (NOV 2016) -1.6 -2.0 -2.0 Reuters survey (APR 2017)¹ (-1.2) - (-2.3) - (-2.8) (-2.0) - (-2.5) - (-2.8) Forecasts on the size of Hungary's export markets (annual growth rate, %) MNB (MAR 2017) 3.8 3.0 3.2 2.8 European Commission (MAY 2017)² 4.0 4.9 5.0 IMF (APR 2017)² 4.1 4.5 4.4 4.6 OECD (NOV 2016)² 3.4 3.7 3.9 Forecasts on the GDP growth rate of Hungary's trade partners (annual growth rate, %) MNB (MAR 2017) 2.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 Consensus Economics(APR 2017)¹ 2.2 2.1 2.1 European Commission (MAY 2017)² 2.2 2.2 2.3 IMF (APR 2017)² 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 OECD (MAR 2017)² 2.0 2.0 2.0

.

1 For Reuters and Consensus Economics surveys, in addition to the average value of the analysed replies (i.e. the median value), we also indicate the lowest and the highest values to illustrate the distribution of the data. 2 Values calculated by the MNB; the projections of the named institutions for the relevant countries are adjusted with the weighting system of the MNB, which is also used for the calculation of the bank’s own external demand indices. Certain institutions do not prepare forecast for all partner countries. 3 As a percentage of GDP. 4 With complete cancellation of free reserves. Source: Consensus Economics, European Commission, IMF, OECD, Reuters poll


26

47. Domestic financial developments Overview

Indicator

One month ago One week ago Current

HUF/EUR spot exchange rate 313.7 310.4 309.7

Skewness of expectations on HUF/EUR exchange rate 0.98 0.87 0.87

HUF-positions of foreign investors (HUF billions) -1810 -1777 -1656

Forward positions of domestic investors (HUF billions) 1508 1260 1086

MNB base rate (%) 0.90 0.90 0.90

Expected short-term interbank rate at the end of the year (%)* 0.24 0.23 0.20

3-months interbank rate (%) 0.18 0.18 0.18

3x6 FRA rate (%) 0.18 0.17 0.20

3 month T-bill yield (%) 0.07 0.08 0.07

5 year T-bond yield (%) 2.07 1.88 1.86

Slope of yield curve (10Y-1Y, bp) 319 292 296

O/N FX-swap spread (bp) -7 -5 -25

3-month FX-swap spread (bp) -7 -11 -7

5-year FX-swap spread (bp) -12 -18 -19

5-year CDS spread (bp) 115 113 114

5x5 goverment bond spread (bp)** 329 291 278

Average spread of USD-denominated government bonds (bp) 7 17 18

Foreign holdings of HUF-government bonds (HUF billion) 3270 3291 3296

Notes:

* Based on forward yield curve.

** Over Germany yield.


27

Source: Datastream

Note: reverse scale, daily observations.

48. Developments in HUF exchange rateJa

n.20

13

Feb.

2013

Apr.2

013

Jun.

2013

Jul.2

013

Sep.

2013

Nov.

2013

Dec.

2013

Feb.

2014

Apr.2

014

May

.201

4

Jul.2

014

Sep.

2014

Oct

.201

4

Dec.

2014

Jan.

2015

Mar

.201

5

May

.201

5

Jul.2

015

Aug.

2015

Oct

.201

5

Nov.

2015

Jan.

2016

Mar

.201

6

Apr.2

016

Jun.

2016

Aug.

2016

Sep.

2016

Nov.

2016

Jan.

2017

Feb.

2017

Apr.2

017

286

290

294

298

302

306

310

314

318

322

326

210

230

250

270

290

310

330

350

370

390

410

EUR/HUF (left-hand scale) USD/HUF CHF/HUF

HUF HUF

Source: Thomson Reuters Note: reverse scale.

49. Developments in HUF exchange rate (last month)

19.A

pr

20.A

pr

21.A

pr

24.A

pr

25.A

pr

26.A

pr

27.A

pr

28.A

pr

01.M

ay

02.M

ay

03.M

ay

05.M

ay

08.M

ay

09.M

ay

10.M

ay

11.M

ay

12.M

ay

15.M

ay

16.M

ay

17.M

ay

308

309

310

311

312

313

314

315

316

270

275

280

285

290

295

300

305

310

EUR/HUF (left-hand scale) USD/HUF CHF/HUF

HUF HUF


28

Source: Thomson Reuters Note: cumulative change. Positive values mean appreciation.

50. Emerging markets exchange rateJa

n.20

13

Feb.

2013

Apr.2

013

May

.201

3

Jul.2

013

Aug.

2013

Oct

.201

3

Dec.

2013

Jan.

2014

Mar

.201

4

Apr.2

014

Jun.

2014

Aug.

2014

Sep.

2014

Nov.

2014

Dec.

2014

Feb.

2015

Apr.2

015

May

.201

5

Jul.2

015

Aug.

2015

Oct

.201

5

Nov.

2015

Jan.

2016

Mar

.201

6

Apr.2

016

Jun.

2016

Jul.2

016

Sep.

2016

Oct

.201

6

Dec.

2016

Feb.

2017

Mar

.201

7

May

.201

7-15

-10

-5

0

5

-15

-10

-5

0

5

HUF/EUR PLN/EUR CZK/EUR RON/EUR

percent percent

Source: Thomson Reuters. Note: cumulative change, negative value means depreciation of the local currency.

51. Emerging markets exchange rate (last month)

19.A

pr

20.A

pr

21.A

pr

24.A

pr

25.A

pr

26.A

pr

27.A

pr

28.A

pr

01.M

ay

02.M

ay

03.M

ay

05.M

ay

08.M

ay

09.M

ay

10.M

ay

11.M

ay

12.M

ay

15.M

ay

16.M

ay

17.M

ay

-1,5

-1,0

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

-1,5

-1,0

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

HUF/EUR PLN/EUR CZK/EUR RON/EUR

percent percent


29

Source: BloombergNote: implied volatility (based on foreign exchange option quotes) can be interpreted as an indicator of risk perceived by the market.

52. Volatility of exchange rate expectations

Jan.

2013

Apr

.201

3

Aug

.201

3

Dec

.201

3

Mar

.201

4

Jul.2

014

Oct

.201

4

Feb.

2015

May

.201

5

Sep.

2015

Jan.

2016

Apr

.201

6

Aug

.201

6

Nov

.201

6

Mar

.201

7

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

HUF/EUR PLN/EUR CZK/EUR USD/EUR

percent percent

Source: BloombergNotes: based on option quotes for 1-month 25D risk reversal; skewness=RR/Volatility*10. Risk reversal can be regarded as a nominal indicator for the skewness of the distribution of exchange rate expectations, while skewness eliminates the effect of changes in volatility.

53. Skewness of exchange rate expectations

Jan.

2013

Apr.

2013

Aug.

2013

Nov

.201

3

Mar

.201

4

Jun.

2014

Oct

.201

4

Jan.

2015

May

.201

5

Aug.

2015

Dec

.201

5

Mar

.201

6

Jul.2

016

Oct

.201

6

Feb.

2017

May

.201

7

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

HUF/EUR PLN/EUR CZK/EUR USD/EUR

Source: MNBNotes: forint against foreign exchange deals by domestic banks; moving averages calculated based on deal date data.

54. Turnover on the spot and the FX-swap market

Jan.

2013

Apr

.201

3

Aug

.201

3

Dec

.201

3

Apr

.201

4

Jul.2

014

Nov

.201

4

Mar

.201

5

Jul.2

015

Oct

.201

5

Feb.

2016

Jun.

2016

Sep.

2016

Jan.

2017

May

.201

7

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Spot exchange market (25-day moving average, LHS)

FW-swap market (25-day moving average)


Source: MNB Note: forint against foreign exchange deals by domestic banks; moving averages calculated based on deal date data.

55. Turnover on the forward and option market

Jan.

2013

Apr

.201

3

Aug

.201

3

Dec

.201

3

Mar

.201

4

Jul.2

014

Nov

.201

4Fe

b.20

15Ju

n.20

15

Sep.

2015

Jan.

2016

May

.201

6

Aug

.201

6

Dec

.201

6A

pr.2

017

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Option market (25-day moving average, LHS)

Forward FX-market (25-day moving average)



30

Source: MNB.

56. Open FX-positions of non-residents in HUF

20.F

eb

23.F

eb

28.F

eb

03.M

ar

08.M

ar

13.M

ar

16.M

ar

21.M

ar

24.M

ar

29.M

ar

03.A

pr

06.A

pr

11.A

pr

18.A

pr

21.A

pr

26.A

pr

01.M

ay

04.M

ay

09.M

ay

12.M

ay

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100 307

308

309

310

311

312

313

314

315

316

317

long HUF short HUF total net position exchange rate (reversed RHS)

HUF billions HUF/EUR

Source: MNBNote: Based on daily reports of credit institutions. Due to the nature of the daily reports of banks on FX transactions the components of the statistic do not close to zero. As a result information contained in the data series is relevant mainly to evaluate the direction of short-term fluctuation. The MNB does not hold responsibility for the accuracy of the data. Revision due to reporting error and non-standard transactions might lead to subsequent modification of the data series.

57. Cumulated positions of non-residents in HUF and the EURHUF exchange rate

Jan.

2013

Apr.

2013

Aug.

2013

Dec

.201

3

Apr.

2014

Jul.2

014

Nov

.201

4

Mar

.201

5

Jul.2

015

Nov

.201

5

Mar

.201

6

Jun.

2016

Oct

.201

6

Feb.

2017

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500 280

285

290

295

300

305

310

315

320

325

Forward position of domestic investors

Speculative position of foreign investors

EUR/HUF rate (RHS, reverse scale)

HUF billions HUF/EUR

Source: MNB Note:20-day moving averages.

58. Forward agreements of non-financial institutions

Jan

.201

3

Ap

r.20

13

Au

g.20

13N

ov.

2013

Mar

.201

4Ju

l.201

4

Oct

.201

4Fe

b.2

015

Jun

.201

5

Sep

.201

5Ja

n.2

016

May

.201

6A

ug.

2016

Dec

.201

6A

pr.

2017

30

50

70

90

110

130

150 100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Average maturity

Average transaction size (RHS, reversed scale)

day HUF million


31

Source: MNB, Thomson Reuters Note: implied HUF yields based on trades in case of O/N maturity and based on USD/HUF FX-swap quotes provided by Thomson Reuters in the cases of 6-month maturity.

59. Implied HUF rates on FX-swap market

Jan.

2013

Apr

.201

3

Aug

.201

3N

ov.2

013

Feb.

2014

Jun.

2014

Sep.

2014

Jan.

2015

Apr

.201

5A

ug.2

015

Nov

.201

5Fe

b.20

16Ju

n.20

16Se

p.20

16

Jan.

2017

Apr

.201

7

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Interest rate corridor 6M O/N

percent percent

Source: MNB, Thomson Reuters.Notes: Based on USD/HUF swap quotes.

60. Implied yield curve on FX-swap markets

ON 1M 3M 6M 9M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y-3,0

-2,0

-1,0

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

6,0

7,0

-3,0

-2,0

-1,0

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

6,0

7,0

17/05/2017 10/05/2017 19/04/2017

percent percent

Source: Thomson Reuters.

61. Difference between short-term interbank yieldsand FX-swap market implied yields

Jan.

2012

May

.201

2

Oct

.201

2

Mar

.201

3

Aug

.201

3

Dec

.201

3

May

.201

4

Oct

.201

4M

ar.2

015

Jul.2

015

Dec

.201

5M

ay.2

016

Sep.

2016

Jan.

2017

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

O/N 1 week 1 month 3 month

basis point basis point


62. Difference between long-term interbank yieldsand FX-swap market implied yields

Jan.

2012

May

.201

2

Sep.

2012

Feb.

2013

Jul.2

013

Nov

.201

3

Apr

.201

4A

ug.2

014

Jan.

2015

May

.201

5Se

p.20

15

Mar

.201

6

Jul.2

016

Nov

.201

6

Apr

.201

7

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y



32

Source: MNBNote: net FX-swap stock is defined as a difference of HUF-buying and FX-buying transactions.

63. Net FX-swap stock of non-residents by maturityJa

n.20

13

Feb.

2013

Apr.2

013

Jun.

2013

Aug.

2013

Sep.

2013

Nov.

2013

Dec.

2013

Feb.

2014

Apr.2

014

May

.201

4

Jul.2

014

Sep.

2014

Oct

.201

4

Dec.

2014

Feb.

2015

Mar

.201

5

May

.201

5

Jul.2

015

Aug.

2015

Oct

.201

5

Nov.

2015

Jan.

2016

Mar

.201

6

Apr.2

016

Jun.

2016

Jul.2

016

Sep.

2016

Nov.

2016

Dec.

2016

Feb.

2017

Apr.2

017-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Shorter than 1W Between 1W and 3M Between 3M and 1Y Longer than 1Y


Source: MNBNotes: due to the nature of the daily reports of the banks on FX transactions, the components of the FX transactions statistic do not close to zero. As a result, the information contained in the data series on net forint purchase of non-resident investors - and its components - is relevant mainly to evaluate the direction of short-term fluctuations.An increase in the swap stock stands for swaps with a long forint spot leg. Based on the daily fx-reports of credit institutions.Calculated from swap transactions between credit institutions and non-resident investors. The MNB does not hold responsibility for the accuracy of the data. Revisions due to reporting errors and non-standard transactions might lead to significant subsequent modifications of the data series.

64. Forint FX-swap stock and cumulated HUF purchase of non-residents

Jan.

2013

Feb.

2013

Apr.2

013

Jun.

2013

Aug.

2013

Oct.2

013

Nov.

2013

Jan.

2014

Mar

.201

4

Apr.2

014

Jun.

2014

Aug.

2014

Sep.

2014

Nov.

2014

Jan.

2015

Feb.

2015

Apr.2

015

Jun.

2015

Jul.2

015

Sep.

2015

Nov.

2015

Dec.2

015

Feb.

2016

Apr.2

016

May

.201

6

Jul.2

016

Sep.

2016

Oct.2

016

Dec.2

016

Jan.

2017

Mar

.201

70

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

-5000

-4000

-3000

-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

Net FX-swap stock Cummulated HUF buying (RHS)



33

Source: MNBNote: due to the nature of daily reports by banks on FX transactions, the components of the FX transactions statistic do not close to zero. As a result, the information contained in the data series on net forint purchase of non-resident investors - and its components - is relevant mainly to evaluate the direction of short-term fluctuations.An increase in the swap stock stands for swaps with a long forint spot leg. Based on the daily fx-reports of credit institutions.Calculated from swap transactions between credit institutions and non-resident investors. The MNB does not hold responsibility for the accuracy of the data. Revisions due to reporting errors and non-standard transactions might lead to significant subsequent modifications of the data series.

65. Gross FX-swap stocks of foreign investors by maturityJa

n.20

13

Feb.

2013

Apr.2

013

Jun.

2013

Aug.

2013

Sep.

2013

Nov.

2013

Dec.2

013

Feb.

2014

Apr.2

014

May

.201

4

Jul.2

014

Sep.

2014

Oct.2

014

Dec.2

014

Feb.

2015

Mar

.201

5

May

.201

5

Jul.2

015

Aug.

2015

Oct.2

015

Nov.

2015

Jan.

2016

Mar

.201

6

Apr.2

016

Jun.

2016

Jul.2

016

Sep.

2016

Nov.

2016

Dec.2

016

Feb.

2017

Apr.2

017-4000

-3000

-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

-4000

-3000

-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

HUF/FX (below 1W)

HUF/FX (1W-3M)

HUF/FX (3M-1Y)

HUF/FX (above 1Y)

FX/HUF (shorter than 1W)

FX/HUF (1W-3M)

FX/HUF (3M-1Y)

FX/HUF (above 1Y)



66. 5 year sovereign CDS spreads in CEE

Jan.

2013

Feb.

2013

Apr.2

013

Jun.

2013

Jul.2

013

Sep.

2013

Nov.

2013

Dec.

2013

Feb.

2014

Apr.2

014

May

.201

4

Jul.2

014

Sep.

2014

Oct

.201

4

Dec.

2014

Jan.

2015

Mar

.201

5

May

.201

5

Jul.2

015

Aug.

2015

Oct

.201

5

Nov.

2015

Jan.

2016

Mar

.201

6

Apr.2

016

Jun.

2016

Aug.

2016

Sep.

2016

Nov.

2016

Jan.

2017

Feb.

2017

Apr.2

0170

100

200

300

400

500

0

100

200

300

400

500

Hungary Romania Bulgaria Croatia CEE composite



34

Source: Thomson Reuters

67. 5 year sovereign CDS spreads in emerging markets (last month)20

.Feb

23.F

eb

28.F

eb

03.M

ar

08.M

ar

13.M

ar

16.M

ar

21.M

ar

24.M

ar

29.M

ar

03.A

pr

06.A

pr

11.A

pr

14.A

pr

19.A

pr

24.A

pr

27.A

pr

02.M

ay

05.M

ay

10.M

ay

15.M

ay

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Hungary Romania Bulgaria Croatia



68. 5 year sovereign CDS spread in Hungary versus CEEMEA composite index

Jan.

2013

Feb.

2013

Apr.2

013

May

.201

3

Jul.2

013

Sep.

2013

Oct

.201

3

Dec.

2013

Jan.

2014

Mar

.201

4

May

.201

4

Jun.

2014

Aug.

2014

Sep.

2014

Nov.

2014

Jan.

2015

Feb.

2015

Apr.2

015

Jun.

2015

Jul.2

015

Sep.

2015

Oct

.201

5

Dec.

2015

Feb.

2016

Mar

.201

6

May

.201

6

Jun.

2016

Aug.

2016

Sep.

2016

Nov.

2016

Jan.

2017

Feb.

2017

Apr.2

017100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

Hungary-CEEMEA composite spread (RHS) Hungary CEEMEA composite



35

Source: Bloomberg Note: based on factor analysis on daily CDS spread changes. Cumulated series. Increases/decreases of component time series denote contributions to CDS spread increases/decreases.

69. Components of Hungarian 5 year sovereign CDSJa

n.20

15

Jan.

2015

Feb.

2015

Mar

.201

5

Apr.2

015

May

.201

5

Jun.

2015

Jul.2

015

Aug.

2015

Sep.

2015

Oct

.201

5

Nov.

2015

Dec.

2015

Dec.

2015

Jan.

2016

Feb.

2016

Mar

.201

6

Apr.2

016

May

.201

6Ju

n.20

16Ju

l.201

6

Aug.

2016

Aug.

2016

Sep.

2016

Oct

.201

6

Nov.

2016

Dec.

2016

Jan.

2017

Feb.

2017

Mar

.201

7Ap

r.201

7M

ay.2

017-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

Country-specific component International components Hungarian CDS spread (RHS)


Note: Based on swap rates by Reuters

70. 5 year implied spreads over euro rates in 5 year time

Jan.

2013

Feb.

2013

Apr.2

013

May

.201

3

Jul.2

013

Sep.

2013

Oct

.201

3De

c.20

13

Jan.

2014

Mar

.201

4

May

.201

4

Jun.

2014

Aug.

2014

Sep.

2014

Nov.

2014

Jan.

2015

Feb.

2015

Apr.2

015

Jun.

2015

Jul.2

015

Sep.

2015

Oct

.201

5

Dec.

2015

Feb.

2016

Mar

.201

6M

ay.2

016

Jun.

2016

Aug.

2016

Oct

.201

6

Nov.

2016

Jan.

2017

Mar

.201

7Ap

r.201

7-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

HUF CZK PLN



36

Source: Thomson Datastream.Notes: calculated from JP Morgan Euro EMBI data. The series are differences between euro denominated (liquid) foreign currency bond yields and euro zero coupon yields of the corresponding maturities. Different durations may result in significant difference in the level of spreads.

71. Emerging markets FX denominated government bond spreadsJa

n.20

13

Feb.

2013

Apr.2

013

Jun.

2013

Jul.2

013

Sep.

2013

Nov.

2013

Dec.

2013

Feb.

2014

Apr.2

014

May

.201

4

Jul.2

014

Sep.

2014

Oct

.201

4

Dec.

2014

Jan.

2015

Mar

.201

5

May

.201

5

Jul.2

015

Aug.

2015

Oct

.201

5

Nov.

2015

Jan.

2016

Mar

.201

6

Apr.2

016

Jun.

2016

Aug.

2016

Sep.

2016

Nov.

2016

Jan.

2017

Feb.

2017

Apr.2

017-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Hungary Romania Bulgaria CEE composite


Source: Bloomberg. Notes: Spread between EUR and USD denominated FX-bonds and the equivalent US T-bond or euro yields chosen by Bloomberg. We present bonds grouped by currency in order of maturity.

72. Domestic FX-government bond

EUR USD

Jun.

2018

Jan.

2019

Feb.

2020

Feb.

2018

Mar

.201

9

Jan.

2020

Mar

.202

1

Feb.

2023

Nov.

2023

Mar

.202

4

Mar

.204

10

50

100

150

200

0

50

100

150

200

17/05/2017 10/05/2017 19/04/2017



37


73. Interbank yields

Jan.

2013

Feb.

2013

Apr.2

013

May

.201

3

Jul.2

013

Aug.

2013

Oct

.201

3

Nov.

2013

Jan.

2014

Feb.

2014

Apr.2

014

May

.201

4

Jul.2

014

Aug.

2014

Oct

.201

4

Dec.

2014

Jan.

2015

Mar

.201

5

Apr.2

015

Jun.

2015

Jul.2

015

Sep.

2015

Oct

.201

5

Dec.

2015

Jan.

2016

Mar

.201

6

May

.201

6

Jun.

2016

Aug.

2016

Sep.

2016

Nov.

2016

Dec.

2016

Feb.

2017

Mar

.201

7

May

.201

70

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

3M 1Y 5Y 10Y

percent percent


74. Yields of benchmark government securities

Jan.

2013

Feb.

2013

Apr.2

013

Jun.

2013

Jul.2

013

Sep.

2013

Oct

.201

3

Dec.

2013

Jan.

2014

Mar

.201

4

May

.201

4

Jul.2

014

Aug.

2014

Oct

.201

4

Nov.

2014

Jan.

2015

Feb.

2015

Apr.2

015

Jun.

2015

Jul.2

015

Sep.

2015

Nov.

2015

Dec.

2015

Feb.

2016

Mar

.201

6

May

.201

6

Jul.2

016

Aug.

2016

Oct

.201

6

Nov.

2016

Jan.

2017

Mar

.201

7Ap

r.201

70

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

3M 1Y 5Y 10Y

percent percent


38

Source: Thomson ReutersNote: Spread between the benchmark government bond yield of the given maturity and the interbank rates.

75. Government securities - interbank yield spreadsJa

n.20

13

Feb.

2013

Apr.2

013

Jun.

2013

Jul.2

013

Sep.

2013

Nov.

2013

Dec.

2013

Feb.

2014

Apr.2

014

May

.201

4

Jul.2

014

Sep.

2014

Oct

.201

4

Dec.

2014

Jan.

2015

Mar

.201

5

May

.201

5

Jul.2

015

Aug.

2015

Oct

.201

5

Nov.

2015

Jan.

2016

Mar

.201

6

Apr.2

016

Jun.

2016

Aug.

2016

Sep.

2016

Nov.

2016

Jan.

2017

Feb.

2017

Apr.2

017-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

3M 1Y 5Y 10Y



76. Yields of benchmark government securities (last month)

19.A

pr

19.A

pr

20.A

pr

21.A

pr

21.A

pr

24.A

pr

25.A

pr

26.A

pr

26.A

pr

27.A

pr

28.A

pr

01.M

ay

01.M

ay

02.M

ay

03.M

ay

03.M

ay

04.M

ay

05.M

ay

08.M

ay

08.M

ay

09.M

ay

10.M

ay

11.M

ay

11.M

ay

12.M

ay

15.M

ay

16.M

ay

16.M

ay

17.M

ay

18.M

ay

18.M

ay

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

3M 1Y 5Y 10Y

percent percent


39

Source: MNB, ÁKK. Note: calculated by Svenson method by MNB. X axis shows maturities, in years.

77. Implied 3 month forward interest rate yield curve (based on government securities yields)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

17/05/2017 10/05/2017 19/04/2017

percent percent

Note: Calculated from FRA-s, and IRS by spline method. X axis shows maturities, in years.

78. Implied 3 month forward interest rate yield curve (based on interbank yields)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

17/05/2017 10/05/2017 19/04/2017

percent percent

Source: Thomson ReutersNote: X axis shows maturities, in years. Estimated by the ECB using the Svensson-technique, based on AAA-rated euro area central government bonds.

79. Spread between 3-month forward yields in EURand HUF

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Euro 17/05/2017

Forint 17/05/2017

Spread 17/05/2017

Euro 19/04/2017

Forint 19/04/2017

Spread 19/04/2017

percent percent

Source: MNB, Bloomberg.

80. Hungarian government bond yield curve andforeign currency bond yields

Jun.

2017

May

.201

9

May

.202

1

May

.202

3

Apr

.202

5

Apr

.202

7

Mar

.202

9

Mar

.203

1

Mar

.203

3

Feb.

2035

Feb.

2037

Feb.

2039

Jan.

2041

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

HUF zero-coupon yield curve USD yield

HUF benchmark EUR yield

percent percent


40

Source: Thomson Reuters, MNB Note: Risk-free rate: German 5-year rate; Credit risk premium: 5-year Hungarian CDS spread; Liquidity premium: 5-year interest rate swap spread; others: based on residuals.

81. Decomposition of 5 year government bond yieldJa

n.20

13Fe

b.20

13

Apr.2

013

May

.201

3

Jul.2

013

Sep.

2013

Oct

.201

3De

c.20

13

Jan.

2014

Mar

.201

4

May

.201

4

Jun.

2014

Aug.

2014

Sep.

2014

Nov.

2014

Jan.

2015

Feb.

2015

Apr.2

015

Jun.

2015

Jul.2

015

Sep.

2015

Oct

.201

5

Dec.

2015

Feb.

2016

Mar

.201

6M

ay.2

016

Jun.

2016

Aug.

2016

Oct

.201

6

Nov.

2016

Jan.

2017

Mar

.201

7Ap

r.201

7-200

0

200

400

600

800

-200

0

200

400

600

800

Risk-free yield Liquidity premia Risk premia Other elements 5 years yield (RHS)


Source: Bloomberg Note: Spread between 10 and 1 year local curreny benchmark government bond yield.

82. Slope of yield curve in CEE

Jan.

2013

Feb.

2013

Apr.2

013

May

.201

3

Jul.2

013

Aug.

2013

Oct

.201

3

Dec.

2013

Jan.

2014

Mar

.201

4Ap

r.201

4Ju

n.20

14

Jul.2

014

Sep.

2014

Nov.

2014

Dec.

2014

Feb.

2015

Apr.2

015

May

.201

5Ju

l.201

5

Aug.

2015

Oct

.201

5

Nov.

2015

Jan.

2016

Mar

.201

6

Apr.2

016

Jun.

2016

Jul.2

016

Sep.

2016

Oct

.201

6

Dec.

2016

Feb.

2017

Mar

.201

7

May

.201

70

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Hungary Czech Republic Poland



41

Source: Thomson Reuters, MNB

83. MNB base rate and money market rates

Jan.

2013

Apr

.201

3

Aug

.201

3

Nov

.201

3

Mar

.201

4

Jun.

2014

Oct

.201

4

Jan.

2015

May

.201

5

Sep.

2015

Dec

.201

5

Mar

.201

6

Jul.2

016

Oct

.201

6

Feb.

2017

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Interest rate corridor Base rate

3M BUBOR rate 1X4 FRA HUFONIA

percent percent

Source: Thomson Reuters, MNB.

84. Difference between the 3 month FRA quotes and the current base rate

19/04/2017 10/05/2017 17/05/2017

1x4 2x5 3x6 1x4 2x5 3x6 1x4 2x5 3x6

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

FRA-BUBOR BUBOR-base rate

FRA-base rate


Source: MNB.

85. Implied 3 month forward interest rate curve (based on interbank yields)

May

.201

5A

ug.2

015

Dec

.201

5

Mar

.201

6Ju

n.20

16Se

p.20

16

Jan.

2017

Apr

.201

7Ju

l.201

7

Oct

.201

7Ja

n.20

18M

ay.2

018

Aug

.201

8N

ov.2

018

Mar

.201

9

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

17/05/2017 10/05/2017 19/04/2017

percent percent

Source: MNB.

86. Implied 3 month forward interest rate curve (based on government bond yields)

May

.201

5A

ug.2

015

Dec

.201

5

Mar

.201

6Ju

n.20

16Se

p.20

16

Jan.

2017

Apr

.201

7Ju

l.201

7

Oct

.201

7Ja

n.20

18M

ay.2

018

Aug

.201

8N

ov.2

018

Mar

.201

9

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

17/05/2017 10/05/2017 19/04/2017

percent percent


42


87. Base rates and short term interbank rates in the regionJa

n.20

13

Feb.

2013

Apr.2

013

Jun.

2013

Jul.2

013

Sep.

2013

Nov.

2013

Dec.

2013

Feb.

2014

Apr.2

014

May

.201

4

Jul.2

014

Sep.

2014

Oct

.201

4

Dec.

2014

Jan.

2015

Mar

.201

5

May

.201

5

Jul.2

015

Aug.

2015

Oct

.201

5

Nov.

2015

Jan.

2016

Mar

.201

6

Apr.2

016

Jun.

2016

Aug.

2016

Sep.

2016

Nov.

2016

Jan.

2017

Feb.

2017

Apr.2

017-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Hungarian base rate

Hungarian interbank rate

Czech base rate

Czech interbank rate

Polish base rate

Polish interbank rate

Romanian base rate

Romanian interbank rate

percent percent

Source: BloombergNote: Based on FRA transactions. Last update: (17/05/2017).

88. CEE base rates and forward rate aggreements

May

.201

5

Jun.

2015

Aug.

2015

Sep.

2015

Oct

.201

5

Dec.

2015

Jan.

2016

Feb.

2016

Apr.2

016

May

.201

6

Jul.2

016

Aug.

2016

Sep.

2016

Nov.

2016

Dec.

2016

Jan.

2017

Mar

.201

7

Apr.2

017

May

.201

7Ju

l.201

7

Aug.

2017

Sep.

2017

Nov.

2017

Dec.

2017

Jan.

2018

Mar

.201

8

Apr.2

018

May

.201

8Ju

l.201

8

Aug.

2018

Sep.

2018

Nov.

2018

Dec.

2018

Jan.

2019

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

Hungary Poland Czech Republic

percent percent


43

Source: MNBNote: Based on reporting by domestic banks.

89. Turnover on the interbank, HUF repo, and FRA markets (25 day moving average)Ja

n.20

13

Feb.

2013

Apr.2

013

May

.201

3

Jul.2

013

Aug.

2013

Oct

.201

3

Dec.

2013

Jan.

2014

Mar

.201

4Ap

r.201

4Ju

n.20

14

Jul.2

014

Sep.

2014

Nov.

2014

Dec.

2014

Feb.

2015

Apr.2

015

May

.201

5Ju

l.201

5

Aug.

2015

Oct

.201

5

Nov.

2015

Jan.

2016

Mar

.201

6

Apr.2

016

Jun.

2016

Jul.2

016

Sep.

2016

Oct

.201

6

Dec.

2016

Feb.

2017

Mar

.201

7

May

.201

70

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Unsecured money market Repo market FRA market


Source: MNB.

90. Change in government securities of non-residents by tenor

Jan.

2015

Jan.

2015

Feb.

2015

Mar

.201

5

Apr.2

015

May

.201

5

Jun.

2015

Jul.2

015

Aug.

2015

Sep.

2015

Oct

.201

5

Oct

.201

5No

v.20

15

Dec.

2015

Jan.

2016

Feb.

2016

Mar

.201

6Ap

r.201

6

May

.201

6

Jun.

2016

Jul.2

016

Jul.2

016

Aug.

2016

Sep.

2016

Oct

.201

6

Nov.

2016

Dec.

2016

Jan.

2017

Feb.

2017

Feb.

2017

Mar

.201

7

Apr.2

017-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

Maturing before 31 Dec. 2017 Maturing between 1 Jan. 2018 and 31 Dec. 2020 Maturing later than 1 Jan. 2021

Total amount



44

Source: MNB Note: Last month is incomplete.

91. Decomposition of change in government securities held by non-residents (last months)Ja

n.20

15

Mar

.201

5

May

.201

5

Jul.2

015

Sep.

2015

Nov.

2015

Jan.

2016

Mar

.201

6

May

.201

6

Jul.2

016

Sep.

2016

Nov.

2016

Jan.

2017

Mar

.201

7-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

T-bill maturity

Bond auction

Bond maturity

Secondary market

T-bill auction

Total


Source: MNB, KELERNote: Cumulative change. Equity data are not comprehensive, it contains data for large- and mid-cap stocks quoted on the Budapest Stock Exchange.

92. Forint financial assets held by non-residents

Jan.

2013

Feb.

2013

Apr.2

013

May

.201

3

Jul.2

013

Sep.

2013

Oct

.201

3De

c.20

13

Jan.

2014

Mar

.201

4

May

.201

4

Jun.

2014

Aug.

2014

Oct

.201

4

Nov.

2014

Jan.

2015

Mar

.201

5

Apr.2

015

Jun.

2015

Aug.

2015

Sep.

2015

Nov.

2015

Jan.

2016

Feb.

2016

Apr.2

016

Jun.

2016

Jul.2

016

Sep.

2016

Nov.

2016

Dec.

2016

Feb.

2017

Mar

.201

7M

ay.2

017-2500

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

-2500

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

Government bond MNB bond Equity



45

Source: MNBNote: Last month is incomplete.

93. Primary market goverment security purchase of domestic and non-resident investors

Jan.

2015

Mar

.201

5

May

.201

5

Jul.2

015

Sep.

2015

Nov.

2015

Jan.

2016

Mar

.201

6

May

.201

6

Jul.2

016

Sep.

2016

Nov.

2016

Jan.

2017

Mar

.201

70

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Foreign demand within 1 year Foreign demand over 1 year Domestic demand within 1 year

Domestic demand over 1 year


Source: MNB.

94. Government securities held by non-residents and the proportion to the total amount outstanding

Jan.

2013

Apr

.201

3A

ug.2

013

Nov

.201

3M

ar.2

014

Jul.2

014

Oct

.201

4Fe

b.20

15

Jun.

2015

Sep.

2015

Jan.

2016

May

.201

6A

ug.2

016

Dec

.201

6

Mar

.201

7

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

T-bill stock Government bond stock

Share of total stock (RHS)

HUF billions percent

Source: MNB.

95. Government bonds held by non-residents and the share of the total amount outstanding (last months)

20

.Fe

b

27

.Fe

b

06

.Mar

13

.Mar

21

.Mar

28

.Mar

04

.Ap

r

11

.Ap

r

20

.Ap

r

27

.Ap

r

05

.May

12

.May

2900

3000

3100

3200

3300

3400

3500

3600

20,0

21,0

22,0

23,0

24,0

25,0

26,0

27,0

Stocks of foreign holders

Share of total stock (RHS)



46

Source: MNBNote: Based on HUF government bonds and T-bills.

96. The average time to maturity of government security portfolio of residents and non-residents

Jan.

2013

Feb.

2013

Apr.2

013

May

.201

3

Jul.2

013

Aug.

2013

Oct

.201

3

Nov.

2013

Jan.

2014

Feb.

2014

Apr.2

014

May

.201

4

Jul.2

014

Aug.

2014

Oct

.201

4

Dec.

2014

Jan.

2015

Mar

.201

5

Apr.2

015

Jun.

2015

Jul.2

015

Sep.

2015

Oct

.201

5

Dec.

2015

Jan.

2016

Mar

.201

6

May

.201

6

Jun.

2016

Aug.

2016

Sep.

2016

Nov.

2016

Dec.

2016

Feb.

2017

Mar

.201

7

May

.201

72

3

4

5

6

2

3

4

5

6

Foreign holders Domestic holders Total stock

year year

Source: ÁKKNotes: the turnover and yield data of the Hungarian primary t-bill and t-bond issues. In case of floating rate bonds the yield data are not be plotted.

97. The turnover and yield data of the Hungarian primary T-bill and T-bond issues

3 months 12 months 3 years 5 years 10 years

02/0

5/20

17

09/0

5/20

17

16/0

5/20

17

20/0

4/20

17

04/0

5/20

17

18/0

5/20

17

27/0

4/20

17

11/0

5/20

17

18/0

5/20

17

27/0

4/20

17

04/0

5/20

17

11/0

5/20

17

13/0

4/20

17

27/0

4/20

17

11/0

5/20

17

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

5,0

Offered Bid Accepted Min yield (RHS) Max yield (RHS) Average yield (RHS)



47

Source: MNB.

98. Government securities issues, buybacks, redemptionsJa

n.20

14

Feb.

2014

Mar

.201

4

May

.201

4

Jun.

2014

Jul.2

014

Sep.

2014

Oct

.201

4

Dec.

2014

Jan.

2015

Mar

.201

5

Apr.2

015

May

.201

5Ju

l.201

5

Aug.

2015

Sep.

2015

Nov.

2015

Dec.

2015

Jan.

2016

Mar

.201

6Ap

r.201

6

May

.201

6

Jul.2

016

Aug.

2016

Sep.

2016

Nov.

2016

Dec.

2016

Jan.

2017

Mar

.201

7

Apr.2

017-3000

-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

-3000

-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

Net T-bill issue Bond issue Bond buyback Bond maturity Total change


Source: MNB, KELER.

99. Turnover on the secondary market of government securities

Jan.

2013

Feb.

2013

Apr.2

013

Jun.

2013

Jul.2

013

Sep.

2013

Nov.

2013

Dec.

2013

Feb.

2014

Apr.2

014

May

.201

4

Jul.2

014

Aug.

2014

Oct

.201

4

Dec.

2014

Jan.

2015

Mar

.201

5

May

.201

5

Jun.

2015

Aug.

2015

Oct

.201

5

Nov.

2015

Jan.

2016

Feb.

2016

Apr.2

016

Jun.

2016

Jul.2

016

Sep.

2016

Oct

.201

6

Dec.

2016

Feb.

2017

Mar

.201

70

100

200

300

400

500

0

100

200

300

400

500

Shorter than 1 year 1 to 3 years 3 to 5 years Longer than 5 years



48

Source: MNB.

100. Selected assets and liabilities of the MNBJa

n.20

12

Mar

.201

2

May

.201

2

Jul.2

012

Sep.

2012

Nov.

2012

Jan.

2013

Mar

.201

3

May

.201

3

Jul.2

013

Sep.

2013

Nov.

2013

Jan.

2014

Mar

.201

4

May

.201

4

Jul.2

014

Sep.

2014

Nov.

2014

Jan.

2015

Mar

.201

5

May

.201

5

Jul.2

015

Sep.

2015

Nov.

2015

Jan.

2016

Mar

.201

6

May

.201

6

Jul.2

016

Sep.

2016

Nov.

2016

Jan.

2017

Mar

.201

7-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

Total HUF liquidity O/N loan 1-/2-week loan 3-/6-month loan Reserve holdings O/N deposit

Limited 2-week assets 3-/6-month deposit FX-swap 2-week deposit


Source: MNB.

101. Use of facilities of the MNB beside the main instrument

20.A

pr

21.A

pr

22.A

pr

23.A

pr

24.A

pr

25.A

pr

26.A

pr

27.A

pr

28.A

pr

29.A

pr

30.A

pr

01.M

ay

02.M

ay

03.M

ay

04.M

ay

05.M

ay

06.M

ay

07.M

ay

08.M

ay

09.M

ay

10.M

ay

11.M

ay

12.M

ay

13.M

ay

14.M

ay

15.M

ay

16.M

ay

17.M

ay

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

O/N balance FX-swap 1-/2-week loan 3-/6-month loan



49

102. International developments Overview

Indicator

1 month ago 1 week ago Current

Fed base rate (%) 1.00 1.00 1.00

ECB base rate (%) 0.00 0.00 0.00

10-year T-bond yield (%) 2.21 2.33 2.23

10-year euro yield (%) 0.20 0.39 0.34

VIX Index (%) 14.9 10.4 14.7

EMBI Global spread (bp) 335 319 331

SP 500 Index 2338 2391 2357

DAX Index 12016 12770 12590

NIKKEI Index 18736

USD/EUR exchange rate 1.07 1.09 1.11

USD/JPY exchange rate 108.87 113.35 111.50

CHF/EUR exchange rate 1.07 1.09 1.13

Brent oil (USD per barrel) 54.5 50.6 52.6


50

Source: Thomson ReutersNote: cumulative change. Positive values indicate USD depreciation.

103. Major currencies versus the dollarJa

n.20

13

Feb.

2013

Apr.2

013

Jun.

2013

Jul.2

013

Sep.

2013

Nov.

2013

Dec.

2013

Feb.

2014

Apr.2

014

May

.201

4

Jul.2

014

Sep.

2014

Oct

.201

4

Dec.

2014

Jan.

2015

Mar

.201

5

May

.201

5

Jul.2

015

Aug.

2015

Oct

.201

5

Nov.

2015

Jan.

2016

Mar

.201

6

Apr.2

016

Jun.

2016

Aug.

2016

Sep.

2016

Nov.

2016

Jan.

2017

Feb.

2017

Apr.2

017-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

USD/EUR USD/GBP USD/CHF USD/JPY

percent percent

Source: Thomson Reuters Notes: positive value means deprieciation of the emerging currency. Cumulative change.

104. Emerging currencies versus the dollar

Jan.

2013

Feb.

2013

Apr.2

013

Jun.

2013

Jul.2

013

Sep.

2013

Nov.

2013

Dec.

2013

Feb.

2014

Apr.2

014

May

.201

4

Jul.2

014

Sep.

2014

Oct

.201

4

Dec.

2014

Jan.

2015

Mar

.201

5

May

.201

5

Jul.2

015

Aug.

2015

Oct

.201

5

Nov.

2015

Jan.

2016

Mar

.201

6

Apr.2

016

Jun.

2016

Aug.

2016

Sep.

2016

Nov.

2016

Jan.

2017

Feb.

2017

Apr.2

017-50

0

50

100

150

200

-50

0

50

100

150

200

USD/ZAR USD/PLN USD/RUB USD/TRY USD/HUF

percent percent


51

Source: Thomson ReutersNotes: cumulative change.

105. Developed market stock indicesJa

n.20

13

Feb.

2013

Apr.2

013

May

.201

3

Jul.2

013

Aug.

2013

Oct

.201

3

Dec.

2013

Jan.

2014

Mar

.201

4Ap

r.201

4Ju

n.20

14

Jul.2

014

Sep.

2014

Nov.

2014

Dec.

2014

Feb.

2015

Apr.2

015

May

.201

5Ju

l.201

5

Aug.

2015

Oct

.201

5

Nov.

2015

Jan.

2016

Mar

.201

6

Apr.2

016

Jun.

2016

Jul.2

016

Sep.

2016

Oct

.201

6

Dec.

2016

Feb.

2017

Mar

.201

7

May

.201

7-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

SP 500 DAX NIKKEI MSCI World Index

percent percent

Source: Thomson Reuters Note: cummulative change, MSCI stock indices.

106. Emerging stock exchange markets

Jan.

2013

Feb.

2013

Apr.2

013

May

.201

3

Jul.2

013

Aug.

2013

Oct

.201

3

Dec.

2013

Jan.

2014

Mar

.201

4Ap

r.201

4Ju

n.20

14

Jul.2

014

Sep.

2014

Nov.

2014

Dec.

2014

Feb.

2015

Apr.2

015

May

.201

5Ju

l.201

5

Aug.

2015

Oct

.201

5

Nov.

2015

Jan.

2016

Mar

.201

6

Apr.2

016

Jun.

2016

Jul.2

016

Sep.

2016

Oct

.201

6

Dec.

2016

Feb.

2017

Mar

.201

7

May

.201

7-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

MSCI Asia MSCI Eastern Europe MSCI LatAm BUX

percent percent


52

Source: Bloomberg, CTFC.Notes: Speculative position is defined as a net of long and short transactions. Positive value means the majority of open positions on euro strengthening. Weekly datab by Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

107. EUR/USD exchange rate and speculative positionsJa

n.20

13

Feb.

2013

Apr.2

013

May

.201

3

Jul.2

013

Sep.

2013

Oct

.201

3

Dec.

2013

Jan.

2014

Mar

.201

4

May

.201

4

Jun.

2014

Aug.

2014

Sep.

2014

Nov.

2014

Jan.

2015

Feb.

2015

Apr.2

015

Jun.

2015

Jul.2

015

Sep.

2015

Oct

.201

5

Dec.

2015

Feb.

2016

Mar

.201

6

May

.201

6

Jun.

2016

Aug.

2016

Oct

.201

6

Nov.

2016

Jan.

2017

Feb.

2017

Apr.2

0171,00

1,05

1,10

1,15

1,20

1,25

1,30

1,35

1,40

1,45

1,50

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

EUR/USD exchange rate Number of cummulative positions (RHS)

exchange rate contracts[x1000]

Source: Thomson Reuters Note: cumulative change except the Brent oil where the scale is nominal.

108. Price of raw materials

Jan.

2013

Feb.

2013

Apr.2

013

Jun.

2013

Jul.2

013

Sep.

2013

Nov.

2013

Dec.

2013

Feb.

2014

Apr.2

014

May

.201

4

Jul.2

014

Sep.

2014

Oct

.201

4

Dec.

2014

Jan.

2015

Mar

.201

5

May

.201

5

Jul.2

015

Aug.

2015

Oct

.201

5

Nov.

2015

Jan.

2016

Mar

.201

6

Apr.2

016

Jun.

2016

Aug.

2016

Sep.

2016

Nov.

2016

Jan.

2017

Feb.

2017

Apr.2

017-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Oil (brent, RHS) GSCI agriculture index Gold GSCI raw material index

percent USD/barrel


53


109. Short term interbank rates in the eurozone

Jan.

2013

Apr

.201

3

Aug

.201

3

Dec

.201

3

Apr

.201

4

Jul.2

014

Nov

.201

4

Mar

.201

5

Jun.

2015

Oct

.201

5

Feb.

2016

May

.201

6

Sep.

2016

Dec

.201

6

Apr

.201

7

-0,6

-0,4

-0,2

-0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

-0,6

-0,4

-0,2

-0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

ECB main refinance rate 1M OIS

3M EURIBOR 3x6 FRA

percent percent


110. Short term interbank rates in Switzerland

Jan.

2013

Apr

.201

3

Aug

.201

3

Dec

.201

3

Apr

.201

4

Jul.2

014

Nov

.201

4

Mar

.201

5

Jun.

2015

Oct

.201

5

Feb.

2016

May

.201

6

Sep.

2016

Dec

.201

6

Apr

.201

7

-1,0

-0,8

-0,6

-0,4

-0,2

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

-1,0

-0,8

-0,6

-0,4

-0,2

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

SNB base rate 1M OIS 3M LIBOR

percent percent

Source: ECB.Note: Calculated 3-months forward yield curve based on German goverment bonds.

111. Forecasts on ECB policy rate

Jan.

2015

May

.201

5Se

p.20

15

Feb.

2016

Jun.

2016

Nov

.201

6M

ar.2

017

Aug

.201

7D

ec.2

017

May

.201

8Se

p.20

18

Feb.

2019

Jun.

2019

Nov

.201

9M

ar.2

020

-1,0

-0,8

-0,5

-0,3

0,0

0,3

0,5

0,8

1,0

-1,0

-0,8

-0,5

-0,3

0,0

0,3

0,5

0,8

1,0

ECB rate 17/05/2017 10/05/2017

19/04/2017

percent percent

Source: Bloomberg.

112. Forecasts on Fed policy rate

Sep.

2014

Dec

.201

4Fe

b.20

15M

ay.2

015

Jul.2

015

Oct

.201

5Ja

n.20

16M

ar.2

016

Jun.

2016

Sep.

2016

Nov

.201

6Fe

b.20

17A

pr.2

017

Jul.2

017

Oct

.201

7D

ec.2

017

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

1,4

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

1,4

Fed funds rate 17/05/2017 10/05/2017

19/04/2017

percent percent


54

Source: Thomson Reuters.Notes: Spread between 3-month interbank rates and 3-month T-bill yield.

113. 3M interbank and government bond yield spread

Jan.

2013

Apr

.201

3

Aug

.201

3

Nov

.201

3

Mar

.201

4Ju

n.20

14

Oct

.201

4

Jan.

2015

May

.201

5

Aug

.201

5

Dec

.201

5M

ar.2

016

Jul.2

016

Oct

.201

6

Feb.

2017

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Euro Dollar



114. 3M interbank and OIS yield spread

Jan.

2013

Apr

.201

3

Aug

.201

3

Nov

.201

3

Mar

.201

4Ju

n.20

14

Oct

.201

4

Jan.

2015

May

.201

5

Aug

.201

5

Dec

.201

5M

ar.2

016

Jul.2

016

Oct

.201

6

Feb.

2017

0

10

20

30

40

50

0

10

20

30

40

50

Euro Dollar



115. Long term euro and dollar benchmark yields

Jan.

2013

Feb.

2013

Apr.

2013

May

.201

3

Jul.2

013

Sep.

2013

Oct

.201

3

Dec

.201

3

Feb.

2014

Mar

.201

4

May

.201

4Ju

l.201

4Au

g.20

14

Oct

.201

4

Nov

.201

4

Jan.

2015

Mar

.201

5

Apr.

2015

Jun.

2015

Aug.

2015

Sep.

2015

Nov

.201

5

Jan.

2016

Feb.

2016

Apr.

2016

May

.201

6

Jul.2

016

Sep.

2016

Oct

.201

6

Dec

.201

6

Feb.

2017

Mar

.201

7

May

.201

7-1,0

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

-1,0

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

10Y USD 10Y EUR

percent percent


55


116. 5Y sovereign CDS in the eurozone peripheryJa

n.20

13

Feb.

2013

Apr.2

013

Jun.

2013

Jul.2

013

Sep.

2013

Nov.

2013

Dec.

2013

Feb.

2014

Apr.2

014

May

.201

4

Jul.2

014

Aug.

2014

Oct

.201

4

Dec.

2014

Jan.

2015

Mar

.201

5

May

.201

5

Jun.

2015

Aug.

2015

Oct

.201

5

Nov.

2015

Jan.

2016

Feb.

2016

Apr.2

016

Jun.

2016

Jul.2

016

Sep.

2016

Oct

.201

6

Dec.

2016

Feb.

2017

Mar

.201

70

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Portugal Spain Ireland Italy


Source: BloombergNote: X axis is displayed in years.

117. Benchmark yield curves of Hungary, Poland, Italy and Germany COPY

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

HU 17/05/2017

HU 19/04/2017

PL 17/05/2017

PL 19/04/2017

IT 17/05/2017

IT 19/04/2017

GE 17/05/2017

GE 19/04/2017

percent percent


56

Source: Thomson ReutersNote: An upward move indicates declining risk appetite or increasing risk aversion. VIX is the implied volatility of SP500 index.

118. Main risk indicatorsJa

n.20

13Fe

b.20

13

Apr.2

013

May

.201

3Ju

l.201

3

Aug.

2013

Oct

.201

3

Dec.

2013

Jan.

2014

Mar

.201

4

Apr.2

014

Jun.

2014

Jul.2

014

Sep.

2014

Nov.

2014

Dec.

2014

Feb.

2015

Mar

.201

5

May

.201

5

Jul.2

015

Aug.

2015

Oct

.201

5

Nov.

2015

Jan.

2016

Feb.

2016

Apr.2

016

Jun.

2016

Jul.2

016

Sep.

2016

Oct

.201

6

Dec.

2016

Jan.

2017

Mar

.201

7M

ay.2

0170

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

VIX index EUR/USD 1M Implied volatility EMBI Global (RHS)

percent basis point

Source: Bloomberg.

119. Long term government bond yields in the Eurozone periphery

Jan.

2013

Feb.

2013

Apr.2

013

Jun.

2013

Jul.2

013

Sep.

2013

Nov.

2013

Dec.

2013

Feb.

2014

Apr.2

014

May

.201

4

Jul.2

014

Aug.

2014

Oct

.201

4

Dec.

2014

Jan.

2015

Mar

.201

5

May

.201

5

Jun.

2015

Aug.

2015

Oct

.201

5

Nov.

2015

Jan.

2016

Feb.

2016

Apr.2

016

Jun.

2016

Jul.2

016

Sep.

2016

Oct

.201

6

Dec.

2016

Feb.

2017

Mar

.201

70

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Spain Italy Greece (RHS) Portugal (RHS)

percent percent


57

Source:EPFRNote: Percentage change of asset under management, 1/1/2011=0

120. Emerging bond-market flowsJa

n.20

13

Feb.

2013

Apr.2

013

May

.201

3

Jul.2

013

Aug.

2013

Sep.

2013

Nov.

2013

Dec.

2013

Feb.

2014

Mar

.201

4

May

.201

4

Jun.

2014

Aug.

2014

Sep.

2014

Oct

.201

4

Dec.

2014

Jan.

2015

Mar

.201

5

Apr.2

015

Jul.2

015

Sep.

2015

Oct

.201

5

Dec.

2015

Jan.

2016

Mar

.201

6

May

.201

6

Jul.2

016

Aug.

2016

Oct

.201

6

Dec.

2016

Jan.

2017

Mar

.201

7-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Hungary Czech Republic Poland Romania Emerging countries

percent percent

Source:EPFRNote: Percentage change of asset under management, 1/1/2011=1

121. Global bond-market flows

Jan.

2013

Feb.

2013

Apr.2

013

May

.201

3

Jul.2

013

Aug.

2013

Oct

.201

3

Nov.

2013

Jan.

2014

Mar

.201

4Ap

r.201

4

Jun.

2014

Jul.2

014

Sep.

2014

Oct

.201

4

Dec.

2014

Jan.

2015

Mar

.201

5

Apr.2

015

Jun.

2015

Aug.

2015

Sep.

2015

Nov.

2015

Jan.

2016

Mar

.201

6M

ay.2

016

Jul.2

016

Aug.

2016

Nov.

2016

Dec.

2016

Feb.

2017

Apr.2

01710

20

30

40

50

60

10

20

30

40

50

60

Emerging Europe Middle-East Latin America Emerging Asia Africa

percent percent

Documents

Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments · 2017. 5. 22. · Jan.2015 Apr.2015 Jul.2015 Nov.2015 Feb.2016 Jun.2016 Sep.2016 Jan.2017 Apr.2017 Jul.2017 Sep.2017