Upload
marlon-lascona-serrano
View
10
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Insurance Industry (IC Research)
Citation preview
Investment of Insurance Industry: Regression Analysis and Measures of Some Possible Factors Affecting Investment of Insurance Industry
Chapter 1: Introduction
Why investment important in our economy? This question will lead this study
to measure the impact of some financial factors to investments of insurance industry.
Why should study investment? We determine Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by
adding up all the spending on final goods and services in economy occurring
throughout the year including personal consumption expenditure, domestic
investment, government expenditure and net exports. In simple words, investment is
one of the determinants of GDP which describes the economy with respect to other
factors like price, population and employment, etc. Everyone is affected by changes
in economic condition.
What is the best destination of excess money from income, if there is? It is
important to save money for future purposes. Subjectively, the best way of saving is
the proper spending. We spend money daily, but we do not know exactly when we
have to spend a lot. While you are in a good financial condition, to minimize the risk
that may exist in the future, it is better for you to spend in securities and savings.
Insure yourself, that means spend now consume later when necessary.
What insurance companies do with the money they collect from policy-
holders? Basically, money that is not needed for day-to-day expenses or reserves is
usually invested by insurers. Some years of investing are better than others, but the
industry has always generated positive investment returns. Large volume of their
investments is in government bonds, or else in well-established business.
1
Investment of Insurance Industry: Regression Analysis and Measures of Some Possible Factors Affecting Investment of Insurance Industry
1.1 Background of the Study
The concept of insurance is the spreading of risk for an individual or group
among the others. This is through when individuals and group pay a premium to an
insurance company to cover their living and operations in case of disastrous events.
Insurance companies manage risk and make investments in different kind of assets to
earn profits.
Investments fuel the economy by generating income and jobs in various
industries. Same thing about investment is that economic conditions may influence
the expectations of investors. There are several types of investments of insurance
company like bonds (specifically corporate secured bonds), mortgage, stocks
(common stocks and preferred stocks), real estate and other investments.
A bond represents a promise on the part of its issuer to repay the sum of
money (the principal) to the bondholder (the investor or insurance company)
at stated time in the future (maturity date) and to pay interest to the bondholder
at a specified rate. Upon maturity, yield (the interest plus the principal) is
return to the bond holder.
A mortgage is a legal instrument under which the property pledged can be
claimed by the lender if the borrower cannot repay the loan on the due date.
Mortgage investments of insurance company come in the form of first
mortgage or deed of trust of unencumbered real estate. An insurance company
lends money to corporations or persons for building homes, factories or
buying lands.
2
Investment of Insurance Industry: Regression Analysis and Measures of Some Possible Factors Affecting Investment of Insurance Industry
The stocks represent a share of ownership in a corporation and therefore a
share in a profit or loss of a corporation. Stocks may be common stocks or
preferred stocks.
o Common stocks confer on its owner the right to vote, share in profits,
and share in the distribution of assets upon liquidation.
o Preferred stocks on the other hand, do not confer on its owner the right
to vote, but first priority rights over dividends and the distribution of
assets upon liquidation.
An insurance company engages in the building and selling of real estate
properties. It may also acquire properties through the foreclosure of properties
of mortgage.
Investments serve to raise the level of output in the future. From the
perspective of an individual, investment is expenditure, usually on a financial asset,
designed to increase the individual’s future wealth. Since investments are durable,
they can be reused. During hard times, firms do not have to buy new capital because
the price is high. Then if firms anticipate a good future, they may buy large volume
of capital now. In other words, depending on expectations for the future, a firm may
choose to fix capital rather than purchase new units, thus spending less. New
advancement in technology can cause a surge in capital investments, but innovation
occurs at irregular times. When a firm is expanding, it invests more and vice versa.
Future expectation is unpredictable and can change quickly as stocks fluctuate greatly.
3
Investment of Insurance Industry: Regression Analysis and Measures of Some Possible Factors Affecting Investment of Insurance Industry
1.2 Research Objectives
This research has general and specific objectives.
1.2.1 General Objective
The general objective of this study is to contribute analysis focus on
reasoning, estimation and measuring the impact of selected variables (exchange rate,
savings rate, reserve assets and income tax) to the level of investments of insurance
industry.
1.2.2 Specific Objectives
Specifically it aims to:
Examine the investment mechanism of insurance industry.
Identify the difficulties in economy concerning investments of insurance
industry.
Formulate a significant regression model.
Estimate and measure the impact of selected factors.
Provide a conclusion and recommendation with respect to the results of
statistical test.
4
Investment of Insurance Industry: Regression Analysis and Measures of Some Possible Factors Affecting Investment of Insurance Industry
1.3 Significance of the Study
Hopefully, this paper would help the government to take consider the
estimated effect of financial trade variables to the level of investments of insurance
industry. It is important to determine what factors affect the most to investments of
insurance companies and how these factors influence the level of investments. This is
to insure the economy itself, and to monitor and regulate these factors in order to
obtain the desire level of output.
1.4 Scope and Limitation
The scope of the study is focused on modelling and forecasting the statistical
relationship between investments of insurance industry to exchange rate, interest rate,
reserve assets, and income tax. Exchange rate (market rate), savings rate (interest
rate), reserve assets and income tax were used as determinants of investments of
insurance industry. Employing least squares method of regression analysis to
determine the measurable estimate effect of the model.
The study is limited with 22 observations, data from 1987 to 2008 of selected
variables. The dependent variable for this study is the investment of all private
insurance company in the Philippines. Independent variables used in this research are
exchange rate (market rate), savings rate (interest rate), reserve assets and income tax.
More about the data will discuss on Chapter 2.
5
Investment of Insurance Industry: Regression Analysis and Measures of Some Possible Factors Affecting Investment of Insurance Industry
1.5 Statement of the Problem
Generally, insurance companies invest the money they are paid by customers.
Insurers are among the most careful investors in the country. Insurers try to maintain
a portfolio that allows for easy liquidation of investments to pay claims. As with
other industries, insurance companies are not exempt from the financial impact of
challenging economic events. Investment performance that insurance companies
relied on to support products, operations and other vital functions may promptly affect
the overall company feasibility. Assuming the optimization behaviour on behalf of
insurance company (investors) and a positive effect of investment to economy, the
following questions should take and consider by the government to stabilized
investment performance:
What is the effect of higher and lower level of investment to economy?
What factors affecting investments of insurance industry?
What and how is the effect of these factors?
How to diversify these factors in order to attain economic growth?
6
Investment of Insurance Industry: Regression Analysis and Measures of Some Possible Factors Affecting Investment of Insurance Industry
1.6 Statement of the Hypothesis
There is a significant direct relationship between exchange rate (price of
dollar in domestic currency) and investment of insurance industry. The
value of domestic currency versus dollar will influence the level of
investment output. When domestic currency depreciates, investment will
tend to increase; when domestic currency appreciates, investment will tend
to decrease. In other words, the level of investment of insurance industry
is determined by the price of dollar.
There is a significant inverse relationship between savings rate (interest
rate on savings) and investment of insurance industry. The rate of interest
on savings will influence the level of investment output. When savings
rate increase, investment of insurance industry will tend to be lower; and
when savings rate is lower, investment is expected to increase.
There is a significant inverse relationship between reserve assets and
investment of insurance industry. When reserve assets increase, level of
investment of insurance industry is expected to be lower. When reserve
assets decrease, level of investment of insurance industry is expected to
increase.
There is a significant direct relationship between income tax and
investment of insurance industry. As income tax increase, total investment
of insurance industry is expected to increase; as income tax decrease, total
investment of insurance industry is expected to be lower.
96.6% of the variability of investment of insurance industry is explained
by exchange rate (market rate), interest rate (savings rate), reserve assets,
and income tax.
7
Investment of Insurance Industry: Regression Analysis and Measures of Some Possible Factors Affecting Investment of Insurance Industry
1.7 Framework
Framework illustrates the conceptual and theoretical structure analysis. These
frameworks help you to easy understand the study.
1.7.1 Conceptual Framework
Figure 1.7.1
8
Investment of Insurance Industry: Regression Analysis and Measures of Some Possible Factors Affecting Investment of Insurance Industry
1.7.2 Theoretical Framework
Figure 1.7.2
9
Investment of Insurance Industry: Regression Analysis and Measures of Some Possible Factors Affecting Investment of Insurance Industry
Chapter 2: Methodology
Data management and collection is necessary to complete this research. After
the assumption that there are several factors affecting the level of investments of
insurance industry I gather some data such as financial and economic indicator like
exchange rate, interest rate, balance of payments, gross domestic product, population,
consumer price index, employment, reserve assets, and total investments and income
tax of insurance industry. I do run these data on E-Views using least squares method
and set total investments of insurance industry as dependent variable to formulate a
model. Fortunately, some of the said variables are significantly related to the level of
investments of insurance industry. Regression analysis comprehend this study with
the interpretation of vital statistics output. In order to precede the analysis of
economic environment, this study will follow a classical methodology.
Quantitative analysis is present to estimate and measure how is the impact of
selected factors affecting the total investments of insurance industry. Given the
assumption, some statistical test supporting the model and equation will determine the
significant relationship of independent variables to dependent variable.
10
Investment of Insurance Industry: Regression Analysis and Measures of Some Possible Factors Affecting Investment of Insurance Industry
2.1 Data Management and Collection
This study consisting annual data from 1987 to 2008 of selected variables that
may affect investments of insurance industry, and data comprises total investments of
insurance companies in the Philippines including domestic and foreign insurance
companies of composite, life, non-life, and professional reinsurer. Data of total
investments of insurance industry as dependent variable and total income tax as one
of independent variables is gathered from the Annual Report of Insurance
Commission, Statistics and Research Division Office located at 1071 United Nations
Avenue, Manila. While exchange rate (market rate) ends of period, reserve assets,
and savings rate (interest rate), data of independent variables is from the database of
United Nations Organization (data.un.org).
2.2 Variables
Relationships between economic variables are generally inexact. To allow the
inexact relationship between variables, it should be modify deterministic function
with probabilistic property or disturbance. The disturbance represents all those
factors that affect the outcome but are not taken into account explicitly. Multiple
regression analysis is concerned with the study of the dependence of one variable, the
dependent variable, on more other variables, the explanatory variables or independent
variables. In this paper, you will find a multiple regression model consisting one
dependent variable and four independent variables.
11
Investment of Insurance Industry: Regression Analysis and Measures of Some Possible Factors Affecting Investment of Insurance Industry
2.2.1 Dependent Variable
The dependent variable is assumed to be statistical, random, or stochastic, that
is, to have a probability distribution. It represents a quantity that varies from
individual to individual throughout the population, and is the primary focus of
interest. The dependent variable used in this research is the total investments of
insurance industry every year in unit peso, including investments from all types of
insurance company that were registered and licenced to operate in the Philippines.
Philam Life, on their Pre-Contract Training Course manual (2013), investments fuel
the economy by generating income and jobs in various industries. There are three
major considerations made before an insurance company decides to invest. First, an
insurance company must consider the risk associated with the investment it makes.
Second, an insurance company must consider the ease by which the investment can be
converted to cash. Lastly, an insurance company must consider the rate of return the
investment will provide. Insurance industry makes investments in well-established
business.
The total investments is impart to the total output in economy. The
mechanism of insurance explained the importance of investments of insurance
company in developing economy. It is important to determine what factors affect the
most to investments of insurance companies and how these factors influence the level
of investments. This is to insure the economy itself, and to monitor and regulate these
factors in order to obtain the desire level of output.
12
Investment of Insurance Industry: Regression Analysis and Measures of Some Possible Factors Affecting Investment of Insurance Industry
Dependent Variable:
Investments of Insurance Industry = INVESTMENTS_INS
Investments - amount of money or other resources measured in terms of money
placed on activities or other forms of assets for the purpose of earning profits.
2.2.2 Independent Variables
The explanatory or independent variables vary from one individual to the next,
and are thought to be related to dependent variable. One of the problems arising in
making a regression model is that many of independent variables are highly collinear.
Assumption 10 of the classical linear regression model (CLRM) is that there
are no perfect linear relationships among the explanatory variables. Model in this
study consisting four independent variables namely exchange rate (market rate) ends
of period, total income tax (of insurance companies), reserve assets (total as of end of
year), and savings rate (annual percentage of interest rate).
Independent Variables:
Exchange Rate = EXCHANGE_RATE_MR
Income Tax = INCOME_TAX_INS
Reserve Assets = RESERVE_ASSETS
Savings Rate = SAVINGS_RATE
13
Investment of Insurance Industry: Regression Analysis and Measures of Some Possible Factors Affecting Investment of Insurance Industry
Exchange Rate – price of one currency in terms of another. Most commonly,
exchange rates are expressed as the number of units of domestic currency that will
purchase one unit of foreign currency (e.g. units of currency per U.S. dollar). An
exchange rate may also be defined as the inverse: the number of units of foreign
currency that one unit of domestic currency will purchase.
Income Tax – A tax that governments impose on financial income generated by all
entities within their jurisdiction. Income tax is a key source of funds that the
government uses to fund its activities and serve the public.
Reserve Assets – consist of those external assets that are readily available to and
controlled by monetary authorities for direct financing of payments imbalances, for
indirectly regulating the magnitude of such imbalances through intervention in
exchange markets to affect the currency exchange rate and/or for other purposes.
Savings Rate – is the rate charged on all interest-bearing deposits of banks, which are
withdraw-able anytime. It is derived as the ratio of interest expense on peso deposits
of reporting commercial banks to the total outstanding level of these deposits.
14
Investment of Insurance Industry: Regression Analysis and Measures of Some Possible Factors Affecting Investment of Insurance Industry
2.3 Regression Analysis
The statistical technique of regression analysis is the main tool used to obtain
the estimates. Using this technique and the data given in Table 2.3.1, we obtain the
estimates of coefficients.
2.3.1 Data
Table 2.3.1
Total Investments of Insurance Industry = INVESTMENTS_INS(Total, Ph. Peso)
Exchange Rate = EXCHANGE_RATE_MR(End of period, Ph. Peso/U$ Dollar)
Income Tax = INCOME_TAX_INS(Total, Ph. Peso)
Reserve Assets = RESERVE_ASSETS(Total, Ph. Peso)
Savings Rate = SAVINGS_RATE(Annual, Percentage)
15
Investment of Insurance Industry: Regression Analysis and Measures of Some Possible Factors Affecting Investment of Insurance Industry
2.3.2 Method
The statistical method of least squares has produced these estimates. The
regression model is correctly specified as this study used least-squares estimator
which satisfies the assumption that there is no specification bias or error in the model
of empirical analysis. This method also follows probability distribution.
2.3.3 Model
Investments of Insurance Industry = f (Exchange Rate, Savings Rate, Reserve Assets and Income Tax)
2.3.4 Equation Output
Figure 2.3.4
16
Investment of Insurance Industry: Regression Analysis and Measures of Some Possible Factors Affecting Investment of Insurance Industry
2.3.5 Estimation Equation
The equation output on Figure 2.3.4 gives the estimated equation:
Variables Coefficient
Y = INVESTMENTS_INS C1 = -75,800,000,000X1 = EXCHANGE_RATE_MR C2 = 5,550,000,000X2 = SAVINGS_RATE C3 = -10,700,000,000X3 = RESERVE_ASSETS C4 = -14.03X4 = INCOME_TAX_INS C5 = 182.30
u = disturbance
INVESTMENTS_INS = -75,800,000,000 + 5,550,000,000(EXCHANGE_RATE_MR) –
10,700,000,000 (SAVINGS_RATE) – 14.03 (RESERVE_ASSETS) + 182.30
(INCOME_TAX_INS)
17
Y = C1 + C2X1 +C3X2 + C4X3 + C5X4 + u
Investment of Insurance Industry: Regression Analysis and Measures of Some Possible Factors Affecting Investment of Insurance Industry
2.3.6 Coefficient
The coefficient (partial regression coefficient) measures the marginal
contribution of the independent variable to the dependent variable, holding all other
variables fixed. The column labelled "Coefficient" depicts the estimated coefficients. The
least squares regression coefficients are computed by the standard OLS formula:
b = (Xˈ X)-1 Xˈ у
If “C” is included in the list of regressors, the corresponding coefficient is the
constant or intercept in the regression. It is the base level of the prediction when all of
the other independent variables are zero. The other coefficients are interpreted as the
slope of the relation between the corresponding independent variable and the
dependent variable, assuming all other variables do not change. We do not interpret
the constant since the dataset does not include the data of variables with zero value.
18
Investment of Insurance Industry: Regression Analysis and Measures of Some Possible Factors Affecting Investment of Insurance Industry
The regression coefficients are interpreted with tables and graph to illustrate
the effect of each factor to investments of insurance industry:
Graph 2.3.6a
- For every one peso per dollar
increase of market exchange
rate every year (e.g. Year1
₱10:$1, Year2 ₱11:$1), total
investments of insurance
industry is estimated to
increase, on the average, by
₱5,550,000,000.00 holding
other factors constant.
Table 2.3.6a
19
Investments
Exchange Rate
Investment of Insurance Industry: Regression Analysis and Measures of Some Possible Factors Affecting Investment of Insurance Industry
Graph 2.3.6b
- For every 1% increase in
savings rate (interest rate), total
investments of insurance
industry is estimated to be
lower, on the average, by
₱10,700,000,000.00 holding
other factors constant
Table 2.3.6b
20
Investments
Savings Rate
Investment of Insurance Industry: Regression Analysis and Measures of Some Possible Factors Affecting Investment of Insurance Industry
Graph 2.3.6c
- For every ₱1.00 increase in
value of reserve assets, total
investments of insurance
industry is estimated to be
lower, on the average, by
₱14.03 holding other factors
constant.
Table 2.3.6c
21
Investments
Reserves Assets
Investment of Insurance Industry: Regression Analysis and Measures of Some Possible Factors Affecting Investment of Insurance Industry
Graph 2.3.6d
- For every ₱1.00 increase on
income tax, total investments of
insurance industry is estimated
to increase, on the average, by
₱182.30 holding other factors
constant.
Table 2.3.6d
22
Investments
Income Tax
Investment of Insurance Industry: Regression Analysis and Measures of Some Possible Factors Affecting Investment of Insurance Industry
2.3.7 Standard Error
In statistics the precision of an estimate is measured by its standard error. The
standard errors measure the statistical reliability of the coefficient estimates-the larger
the standard errors, the more statistical noise in the estimates.
2.3.8 T-Statistics
The t-statistic is computed as the ratio of an estimated coefficient to its
standard error, is used to test the hypothesis that a coefficient is equal to zero. To
interpret the t-statistic, we should examine the probability of observing the t-statistic
given that the coefficient is equal to zero.
Table 2.3.8
23
Coefficient Standard Error T-Statistics
-75,800,000,000.00 23,700,000,000.00 -3.195,550,000,000.00 404,000,000.00 13.74
-10,700,000,000.00 1,960,000,000.00 -5.46-14.03 2.10 -6.70182.30 29.51 6.18
Investment of Insurance Industry: Regression Analysis and Measures of Some Possible Factors Affecting Investment of Insurance Industry
2.3.9 Probability
The last column of the output shows the probability of drawing a t-statistic as
extreme as the one actually observed, under the assumption that the errors are
normally distributed, or that the estimated coefficients are asymptotically normally
distributed. This probability is the marginal significance level.
Table 2.3.8
Performing the test at 5% significance level means that probability lower than
0.05 is taken as evidence to reject the null hypothesis of a zero coefficient. The above
output, on Table 2.3.8, the hypothesis that the coefficient on exchange rate (market
rate), interest rate (savings rate), reserve assets and income tax is zero is rejected at
the 5% level of significance. This is referred to as a highly significant relationship
between dependent variable and independent variables of our model.
24
Investment of Insurance Industry: Regression Analysis and Measures of Some Possible Factors Affecting Investment of Insurance Industry
2.4 Summary Statistics
This study used vital statistics to explain the meaning of this regression
analysis including R-Squared (R2) to measures the success of the regression in
predicting the values of the dependent variable within the sample, Durbin-Watson
Statistics to measures the serial correlation in the residuals, probability of F-Statistics
to state the hypothesis within the marginal significance level of F-test and Histogram
of residual for normality test.
Table 2.4
2.4.1 R-Squared (R2)
The R-squared (R2) statistic measures the success of the regression in
predicting the values of the dependent variable within the sample. In standard
settings, R2 may be interpreted as the fraction of the variance of the dependent
variable explained by the independent variables. The statistic will equal one if the
regression fits perfectly, and zero if it fits no better than the simple mean of the
dependent variable.
25
Investment of Insurance Industry: Regression Analysis and Measures of Some Possible Factors Affecting Investment of Insurance Industry
Table 2.4 shows that 96.6% of the variability of investments of insurance
industry is explained by exchange rate (market rate), interest rate (savings rate),
reserve assets, and income tax.
2.4.2 Durbin-Watson Statistics
The Durbin-Watson statistic measures the serial correlation in the residuals.
The statistic is computed as:
The Durbin-Watson statistic is a test for first-order serial correlation. More
formally, the DW statistic measures the linear association between adjacent residuals
from a regression model. The Durbin-Watson is a test of the hypothesis ρ = 0 in the
specification:
If there is no serial correlation, the DW statistic will be around 2.
Figure 2.4.2
The DW statistic will fall below 2 if there is positive serial correlation
26
Investment of Insurance Industry: Regression Analysis and Measures of Some Possible Factors Affecting Investment of Insurance Industry
(In the worst case, it will be near zero).
If there is negative correlation, the statistic will lie somewhere between 2 and 4.
2.4.3 F-Statistics and the Probability of F-test
The F-statistic reported in the regression output is from a test of the hypothesis
that all of the slope coefficients (excluding the constant, or intercept) in a regression
are zero. For ordinary least squares models, the F-statistic is computed as:
Under the null hypothesis with normally distributed errors, this statistic has an
F-distribution with numerator degrees of freedom and denominator degrees of
freedom.
The p-value given just below the F-statistic denoted Prob. (F-statistic) is the
marginal significance level of the F-test. If the p-value is less than the significance
level of 0.05 reject the null hypothesis that all slope coefficients are equal to zero. In
Table 2.4, the Probability of F-statistic is essentially zero, so we reject the null
hypothesis that all of the regression coefficients are zero. Note that the F-test is a joint
test so that even if all the t-statistics are insignificant, the F-statistic can be highly
significant.
27
Investment of Insurance Industry: Regression Analysis and Measures of Some Possible Factors Affecting Investment of Insurance Industry
2.4.4 Histogram and Normality Test
This view displays a histogram and descriptive statistics of the residuals,
including the Jarque-Bera statistic for testing normality. If the residuals are normally
distributed, the histogram should be bell-shaped and the Jarque-Bera statistic
(Probability) should not be significant.
Figure 2.4.4
All of the statistics are calculated using the observations in the current sample.
Mean is the average value of the series, obtained by adding up the
series and dividing by the number of observations.
28
Investment of Insurance Industry: Regression Analysis and Measures of Some Possible Factors Affecting Investment of Insurance Industry
Median is the middle value (or average of the two middle values) of
the series when the values are ordered from the smallest to the largest.
The median is a robust measure of the center of the distribution that is
less sensitive to outliers than the mean.
Max and Min are the maximum and minimum values of the series in
the current sample.
Std. Dev. (standard deviation) is a measure of dispersion or spread in
the series. The standard deviation is given by:
Where N is the number of observations in the current sample and is
the mean of the series.
Skewness is a measure of asymmetry of the distribution of the series
around its mean. Skewness is computed as:
Where is an estimator for the standard deviation that is based on the
biased estimator for the variance . The skewness
of a symmetric distribution, such as the normal distribution, is zero.
29
Investment of Insurance Industry: Regression Analysis and Measures of Some Possible Factors Affecting Investment of Insurance Industry
Positive skewness means that the distribution has a long right tail and
negative skewness implies that the distribution has a long left tail.
Kurtosis measures the peakedness or flatness of the distribution of the
series. Kurtosis is computed as:
Where is again based on the biased estimator for the variance. The
kurtosis of the normal distribution is 3. If the kurtosis exceeds 3, the
distribution is peaked (leptokurtic) relative to the normal; if the
kurtosis is less than 3, the distribution is flat (platykurtic) relative to
the normal.
Jarque-Bera is a test statistic for testing whether the series is normally
distributed. If the residuals are normally distributed Jarque-Bera
statistic (Probability) should not be significant. The test statistic
measures the difference of the skewness and kurtosis of the series with
those from the normal distribution. The statistic is computed as:
Where S is the skewness, and K is the kurtosis.
Under the null hypothesis of a normal distribution, the Jarque-Bera
statistic is distributed as X2 with 2 degrees of freedom. The reported
30
Investment of Insurance Industry: Regression Analysis and Measures of Some Possible Factors Affecting Investment of Insurance Industry
Probability is the probability that a Jarque-Bera statistic exceeds (in
absolute value) the observed value under the null hypothesis-a small
probability value leads to the rejection of the null hypothesis of a
normal distribution. For the LWAGE series displayed above, we reject
the hypothesis of normal distribution at the 5% level but not at the 1%
significance level.
Chapter 3: Review of Related Literature
3.1 Local Literature
“A look into the insurance industry and its relation to the economy: A panel data
analysis on the possible financial, economic and demographic factors that affect
insurance density”
By: Bernadette H. Marquez
Significance of this study
The importance of this study lies on the reason that this would emphasize the
role of insurance industry in transferring risks that that contributes to the society and
to the economy as well. Furthermore, this would help the government officials to
responsibly take into consideration the condition of the insurance industry in planning
for the economy, and take actions on the economic indicators that would significantly
affect the insurance per capita expenditure. As well as for the insurance regulators to
have an idea about the factors and determinants that affects insurance density, also for
them, to implement stricter regulations to the insurance companies that would
eventually promote further development of the insurance market through the
31
Investment of Insurance Industry: Regression Analysis and Measures of Some Possible Factors Affecting Investment of Insurance Industry
encouragement of spending on insurance protection and insurance consumption. This
would also provide substantial information for the general public to be informed of
the role the insurance industry plays as well as the factors affecting insurance
consumption.
3.2 Foreign Literature
“Analysis of Insurance Practice and Economic Growth in Nigeria: using co-integration test and error correction model”
By: Eze Onyekachi Richard and Okoye Victor
Abstract:
The study examines the impact of insurance practice on the growth of
Nigerian economy. Insurance premium income, total insurance investment and
income of insurance development was used as determinants of insurance practice. We
employ unit root tests, Johansen co-integration test and error correction model in data
analysis and to determine the short and long run effect of the model. The study
observed that the insurance premium capital has significantly impacted on economic
growth in Nigeria; that the level of total insurance investment has significantly
effected on economic growth in Nigeria; and that there is causal relationship between
insurance sector development and economic growth in Nigeria. The implication of
these findings is that insurance industry would contribute meaningful to the growth of
Nigeria economy in long run. The study concludes that there is a significant positive
effect of insurance practice on the growth of Nigerian economy. We therefore
32
Investment of Insurance Industry: Regression Analysis and Measures of Some Possible Factors Affecting Investment of Insurance Industry
recommend that having seen that there is long-run relationship between insurance
industry practice and economic growth in Nigeria. There is need that more efforts
should be made to increase transparency and efficiency in insurance industry through
adequate legislation and policy formulation targeted at providing institutional
improvement, especially in risk management and product innovations in insurance
industry.
“The Effect of Insurance Business on Economic Development in Nigeria”
By: Anthony Adekunle Owojori and Luke Olusola Oluwagbuyi
Abstract
This study investigates the contribution of insurance to economic development
in Nigeria. As a descriptive survey, the study comprised all the 50 insurance
companies in Lagos State, Nigeria out of which a sample of 10 companies were
selected. Out of the 20 life and 30 non-life insurance in the sample, 4 life and 6 non-
life insurance were selected using random sampling techniques. The instrument used
for the study was a questionnaire designed, validated and found reliable for the study.
The findings showed that problem among insurance companies were lack of funds
which leads to claim avoidance. There was no significant difference between
performance of insurance policy in urban and rural areas. The findings also revealed
insurance companies provide financial services to some substantial number of people
in the economy. The findings further revealed that insurance helps in capital
accumulation than payment of reparation of loses. Based on findings, it was
recommended that there should be a cheap means of handling risks to the insured in
33
Investment of Insurance Industry: Regression Analysis and Measures of Some Possible Factors Affecting Investment of Insurance Industry
view of the fact that the principle of large number is brought to bear in the practice
and operations of insurance. The state government should enhance the participation of
individuals and corporate bodies by generating incentives strategy, upgrading
infrastructures enhance human capital development and creating a favourable climate
for insurance investment.
Chapter 4: Summary, Conclusion and Recommendation
4.1 Summary
Chapter 1 of this research introduces the importance and concept of
investment in economy. Giving the background, objectives, significance of the study,
problem statement, hypothesis, and framework support our immediate knowledge. As
a component of GDP, it is important to determine what factors can affect the level of
investment. Insurance is also introduced; prior to investing, insurance companies
understand well the concept of risk and return to manage their financial situation.
Risk management is associated to insurance, and return is expected on investment.
Insurance companies provide financial services and transfer risk through the premium
invested in specified term of financial assets which increase the rate of aggregate
investment in the economy and thus promoting economic development.
Methods and findings in this study are shown in Chapter 2. Using least
squares method and regression analysis, with data from 1987 to 2008 ( 22
observations) of total investments of insurance industry as dependent variable;
exchange rate (market rate), interest rate (savings rate), reserve assets, and income tax
34
Investment of Insurance Industry: Regression Analysis and Measures of Some Possible Factors Affecting Investment of Insurance Industry
of insurance companies as independent variables, the model is formulate to estimate
and measure the impact of independent variables to dependent variable. The result of
statistical tests indicates the significant relationship on our model.
On Chapter 3, this paper review local and foreign literature: literary work of
Miss Bernadette H. Marquez entitled “A Look into the Insurance and Its Relation to
the Economy: A Panel Data Analysis on the Possible Financial, Economic and
Demographic Factors That Affect Insurance Density” (local), “Analysis of Insurance
Practice and Economic Growth in Nigeria: using co-integration test and error
correction model” by Eze Onyekachi Richard and Okoye Victor (foreign), and “The
Effect of Insurance Business on Economic Development in Nigeria” by Anthony
Adekunle Owojori and Luke Olusola Oluwagbuyi (foreign).
Chapter 4 is the summary, conclusion and recommendation. Summary
contains brief discussion of all chapters. Conclusion is the inference assumption of
analysis. Recommendation provides subjective solution and suggestions.
Chapter 5, bibliography is the list of writing used in this study as reference and
guide, including the “Annual Report of Insurance Commission” reference for data.
Chapter 6 contains reference for definition of terms, tables and graphs.
35
Investment of Insurance Industry: Regression Analysis and Measures of Some Possible Factors Affecting Investment of Insurance Industry
4.2 Conclusion
In view of this study, it is important to monitor and regulate the performance
of investment of insurance industry. Stabilizing the financial settings of international
and domestic environment will help insurance company to make a good investment.
The public, as primary concern of insurance, is said to be aware about insurance
consumption. It is important to all level of income earner to spend for insurance
necessarily.
4.3 Recommendation
Government should enhance the contribution of individuals and
corporate organizations by generating encouragements strategy,
constructive climate for insurance investment, improvement
infrastructures and increase human capital development.
36
Investment of Insurance Industry: Regression Analysis and Measures of Some Possible Factors Affecting Investment of Insurance Industry
Exchange rate, interest rate, reserve assets and income tax should be
restrained a target by the government since these considered as factors
that may influence the investment of insurance industry.
Chapter 5: Bibliography
“A look into the insurance industry and its relation to the economy: A panel data
analysis on the possible financial, economic and demographic factors that affect
insurance density”
By: Bernadette H. Marquez
“Analysis of Insurance Practice and Economic Growth in Nigeria: using co-
integration test and error correction model”
By: Eze Onyekachi Richard and Okoye Victor
“The Effect of Insurance Business on Economic Development in Nigeria”
By: Anthony Adekunle Owojori and Luke Olusola Oluwagbuyi
The Insurance Code of 1978 (AS Amended): Published by the Insurance Commission 1979
ASEAN Report of the Fifth Meeting of the ASEAN Insurance Regulators: 17-19 December 2002 Chiang Mai, Thailand
Insurance Company Investments, S. Davidson Herron, Jr.
NTRC Tax Research Journal Volume IX.1 Philippines January-February 1997
Glossary of Terms (Commonly Used in Statistical Work) Statistical Coordination Office – National Economic and Development Office
37
Investment of Insurance Industry: Regression Analysis and Measures of Some Possible Factors Affecting Investment of Insurance Industry
Overview by: Governor Rafael Carlos B. Buenaventura Edited by: Dr. Vicente B. Valdepeῆas, Jr. – The Banko Sentral & the Philippine Economy
Key Financial Stability Issues in Insurance – An account of the Geneva Association’s ongoing dialogue on systemic risk with regulators and policy-makers
Theories of Investment: A Theoretical Review with Empirical Applications, Johan E. Eklund
Basic Econometrics Fourth Edition, Damodar N. Gujarati
Microfinance Consumer Protection Guidebook
Pre-Contract Training Course Manual, Philam Life (2013)
Insurance Commission 1988 Annual Report
Insurance Commission 1989 Annual Report
Insurance Commission 1990 Annual Report
Insurance Commission 1991 Annual Report
Insurance Commission 1992 Annual Report
Insurance Commission 1993 Annual Report
Insurance Commission 1994 Annual Report
Insurance Commission 1995 Annual Report
Insurance Commission 1996 Annual Report
Insurance Commission 1997 Annual Report
Insurance Commission 1998 Annual Report
Insurance Commission Annual Report (1998 Figures)
Insurance Commission 1999 Annual Report
Insurance Commission 2000 Annual Report
Insurance Commission 2001 Annual Report
Insurance Commission 2002 Annual Report
Insurance Commission 2003 Annual Report
Insurance Commission 2004 Annual Report
Insurance Commission 2005 Annual Report
Insurance Commission 2006 Annual Report
38
Investment of Insurance Industry: Regression Analysis and Measures of Some Possible Factors Affecting Investment of Insurance Industry
Insurance Commission 2007 Annual Report
Insurance Commission 2008 Annual Report
Insurance Commission 2009 Annual Report
Insurance Commission 2010 Annual Report
Insurance Commission 2011 Annual Report
Chapter 6: Definition of Terms, Tables and Graphs
6.1 Definition of Terms
Bond – represents a promise on the part of its issuer to repay the sum of money (the
principal) to the bondholder (the investor or insurance company) at stated time in the
future (maturity date) and to pay interest to the bondholder at a specified rate. Upon
maturity, yield (the interest plus the principal) is return to the bond holder.
Common Stocks – confer on its owner the right to vote, share in profits, and share in
the distribution of assets upon liquidation.
Exchange Rate – price of one currency in terms of another. Most commonly,
exchange rates are expressed as the number of units of domestic currency that will
purchase one unit of foreign currency (e.g. units of currency per U.S. dollar). An
exchange rate may also be defined as the inverse: the number of units of foreign
currency that one unit of domestic currency will purchase.
Investments – amount of money or other resources measured in terms of money
placed on activities or other forms of assets for the purpose of earning profits.
39
Investment of Insurance Industry: Regression Analysis and Measures of Some Possible Factors Affecting Investment of Insurance Industry
Mortgage – is a legal instrument under which the property pledged can be claimed by
the lender if the borrower cannot repay the loan on the due date. Mortgage
investments of insurance company come in the form of first mortgage or deed of trust
of unencumbered real estate. An insurance company lends money to corporations or
persons for building homes, factories or buying lands.
Preferred Stocks – on the other hand, do not confer on its owner the right to vote, but
first priority rights over dividends and the distribution of assets upon liquidation.
Real Estate – an industry of development of non-residential buildings, apartment
buildings and dwelling.
Reserve Assets – consist of those external assets that are readily available to and
controlled by monetary authorities for direct financing of payments imbalances, for
indirectly regulating the magnitude of such imbalances through intervention in
exchange markets to affect the currency exchange rate and/or for other purposes.
Savings Rate – is the rate charged on all interest-bearing deposits of banks, which are
withdraw-able anytime. It is derived as the ratio of interest expense on peso deposits
of reporting commercial banks to the total outstanding level of these deposits.
Stocks – represent a share of ownership in a corporation and therefore a share in a
profit or loss of a corporation. Stocks may be common stocks or preferred stocks.
40
Investment of Insurance Industry: Regression Analysis and Measures of Some Possible Factors Affecting Investment of Insurance Industry
6.2 Figures, Tables and Graphs
41
Investment of Insurance Industry: Regression Analysis and Measures of Some Possible Factors Affecting Investment of Insurance Industry
42
Investment of Insurance Industry: Regression Analysis and Measures of Some Possible Factors Affecting Investment of Insurance Industry
43
Investment of Insurance Industry: Regression Analysis and Measures of Some Possible Factors Affecting Investment of Insurance Industry
44
Investment of Insurance Industry: Regression Analysis and Measures of Some Possible Factors Affecting Investment of Insurance Industry
45