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Chapter 3 continued, Population Structure. Age structure of population – an indicator of state of development Relationship between age structure and demands for public services (education, health care…..) - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Chapter 3 continued, Population Structure
• Age structure of population – an indicator of state of development
• Relationship between age structure and demands for public services (education, health care…..)
• Population pyramids as indicators of age and gender structure of populations – typically constructed around 5 year age cohorts
Rate of Natural Increase – any places in stage 1 demographic transition, what about stages
2 & 3, and about stage 4?
Cape Verde – high birth rates, low death rates, high natural increase
Chile – Declining Death Rate, declining rate of natural increase
Denmark – low birth and death rates, low rate of natural increase
Washington State Population Pyramids
Population PyramidWA State, 2000
US Census
6% 4% 2% 0% 2% 4% 6%
0 - 45 - 9
10 - 1415 - 1920 - 2425 - 2930 - 3435 - 3940 - 4445 - 4950 - 5455 - 5960 - 6465 - 6970 - 7475 - 7980 - 84
85 +
Males Females
Higher % ofelderly femalesthan males
Relatively evendistribution upto about 50-54, typical of a developed economy
Big agriculture countiesAdams, Grant, Yakima
College counties – Whitman,Kittitas, Whatcom
Retirement counties Jefferson, Pacific, San Juan
Old wheat countiesColumbia, Garfield
Suburbs - Clark, Snohomish
Professional – King
Poor w/few 20’s-40’s: Stevens, Pend Oreille, Ferry
The Baby Boom and Its Impacts• In the U.S., this 90 million mass of people hit the
labor market in the 1960’s, and will be retiring soon (like me)
• The flood of workers is argued to have stimulated entrepreneurship & the demand for new products
• The burden of the baby boom on social service networks is about to be felt
• The baby-boom “echo”• The tempering influence of migration policy: will
we return to a more liberal period post-9-11?
•Florida argues that theU.S. has reacted to the9-11 terrorist attacks in ways that stifle themovement of the creativeclass to the U.S.• He sees this as a drag onthe U.S. ability toto compete globallyin the development ofleading-edge industries• And U.S. educationalinstitutions are argued tonot be responding withincreased capacity forU.S. citizens
Migration• A change in permanent residence• Migration motivations: push & pull factors• Migration motivations are more than economic:
social and environmental• Scale of movement: from local to interregional to
international – voluntary versus forced (Hurricane Katrina – is this diaspora permanent?
• Historic forced migration – e.g. African slave trade; intranational movements – WW II Jewish –current civil wars in Africa
Economics of Migration: The Samuelson Model
Equilibrium – when wage rate differential equals travel costdifference between regions
Migration Streams – Mexico to US
Migration Streams Continued
• Lack of convergence in wage rates begets the Samuelson model
• Cultural influences – Europe, Asia, the Americas….. Globally a Tiebout process
• Impact of regulations – US post 9-11• Historic age selectivity• Impacts of migration – social conflict; guest
worker programs in Europe; welfare gains for in-migrants.
Migration Patterns to the U.S.Absolute # into U.S. rising post-VietnamWar era to levels similar to end of 19th century
Remarkably different origins
Broad Global Flows of Migrants
Clearlya flow from lowerincome tohigher incomelocations:
Is this supportfor the SamuelsonModel?
Net Migration Rates for Countries
Latin American Migration to U.S.
Migration to and within Europe
Migration due to
civil strife
Migration among U.S. Census Regions – Much more detail is available
The Gravity Model: “Social Physics”
Iij = k * PiPj
Dijb
where I is interaction between place i and j, p(i) and p(j) are populations of places I and j, k is an empirically derived constant,and D(i,j) is the distance between i and j, raised to an empirically derived constant, b.• Stewart, Ravenstein, Ullman
Example of Gravity Model: Visitors to Olympic National Park
Olympic National Park, Continued
Olympic National Park, Cont.
Travel to the 2004 AAG Meetings in DenverDenver
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
0 0.00005 0.0001 0.00015
probability of trip
dist
ance
Denver
Alaska & Hawaii
Colorado
R-square.02
AAG Meetings in Denver, w/o CO, AK, and HI
Denver - W/O CO, AK & HI
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
0 20 40 60
probability of trip
dist
ance
Denver
AdjustedR-square-.02
Summary• This chapter provides an overview of population
trends over the long-run• The Industrial Revolution – in different places at
different points in history – has had powerful impacts on population levels
• Migration and natural increase vary in their regional importance over time
• The Malthusian vision of population growth has been largely replaced by demographic transition models
• Population movements are affected by differences in income levels, but also by environment and politics
• The gravity model can be used to model some population movements, and spatial interaction for many phenomena