Chapter 2

Global Population Trends

Chapter Outline• World Population Growth• Geographic Distribution Of The

World’s Population• Global Variation In Population Size

And Growth• Global Demographic Contrasts

Cartogram of Countries of the World by Population Size

Cartogram of Countries of the World by Population Size

World Population Growth• During the first 90% of human existence,

the population of the world had grown only to the size of today’s New York City.

• Between 1750 and 1950, the world’s population grew from 800 million to 2.5 billion.

• Since 1950 it has expanded to more than six billion.

Population Growth

YearPopulation (Millions)

Average Annual Growth Rate

Doubling Time

–8000 4

–2000 27 0.07 1,051

–500 100 0.14 498

500 198 -0.01 -5,414

1000 290 0.08 906

Population Growth

YearPopulation (Millions)

Average Annual Growth Rate

Doubling Time

1500 473 0.27 258

1800 945 0.42 163

1900 1,654 0.59 118

1920 1,860 0.61 113

1940 2,300 1.05 65

Population Growth

YearPopulation (Millions)

Average Annual Growth Rate

Doubling Time

1960 3,039 1.33 52

1980 4,454 1.69 41

2000 6,071 1.25 55

2020 7,524 1.00 69

2040 8,492 0.65 106

Doubling Time• The time required for a population to

double if the current rate of growth continues.

• The doubling time is approximately equal to 69 divided by the growth rate.

• Estimate the world’s rate of growth in the year 2003 to be 1.2% per year, the doubling time is 58 years.

Why Was Early Growth Slow?

• During the first 99% of human history death rates were high.

• During the hunting-gathering phase, life expectancy averaged 20 years. More than half of children born will died

before 5. The average woman who survived the

reproductive years would have to bear nearly 7 children to assure 2 survived to adulthood.

Why Are More Recent Increases so Rapid?• Acceleration in population after 1750 was

due to declines in the death rate that accompanied the Industrial Revolution. People were eating better, wearing

warmer clothes, bathing more often and drinking cleaner water.

• Continuing population increases are due to dramatic declines in mortality without a commensurate decline in fertility.

Redistribution of the World’s Population through Migration

• Migration streams flow from rapidly growing areas into less rapidly growing ones: Latin America and Asia to the United

States Asia to Canada Africa and Asia to Europe

• In earlier decades, as population grew dense in a region, people moved to less populated areas.

European Expansion • Europeans began to stake out the less

developed areas of the world in the 15th and 16th centuries.

• Before this expansion, Europeans represented 18% of the world’s population.

• By the 1930s, people of European origin in Europe, North America, and Oceania accounted for 35% of the world’s population.

The Urban Revolution• As recently as 1800, less than 1% of the

world’s population lived in cities of 100,000 or more.

• More than 1/3 of all humans now live in cities of that size.

• Urban populations grew in some countries even without industrialization, as places sprang up where goods and services were exchanged.

World Population Increase

Time Period Births DeathsNatural Increase

Year 132,594,000 56,826,000 75,768,000

Day 363,271 155,688 207,584

Hour 15,136 6,487 8,649

Minute 252 108 144

Second 4 2 2

Future Population GrowthMore

Developed Nations

LessDeveloped

NationsWorld

Population in 2000(millions)

1,194 4,877 6,071

Medium fertility- Projection to 2050

1,220 7,699 8,919

Low fertility -Projection to 2050

1,084 6,3257,409

High fertility- Projection to year

20501,370 9,263

10,633

How Many People Have Ever Lived?

Historical Period

# Born During the Period (billions)

Cumulative Total Born (billions)

200,000 BC to 8,000 BC

2.1 2.1

8,001 BC to AD 0 16.7 18.8

AD 1 to 1799 29.4 48.2

1800 to 1899 3.6 51.8

1900 to 1949 2.6 54.4

1950 to 2003 6.5 60.9

World’s 10 Most Populous Countries

1. People’s Republic of China

2. India3. United States4. Indonesia5. Brazil

6. Russia7. Bangladesh8. Russia9. Japan10.Nigeria