CHAPTER 2 AVIATION DEMAND FORECASTS

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Over the next 20 years, the face of commercial operations at EWN will change as the airlines retire smaller

aircraft and transition to larger air carrier aircraft. The challenge for the New Bern MSA is to fill these

larger aircraft so that the airlines do not reduce flight frequencies. If successful in filling the seats, the

additional capacity brought about by larger aircraft will help grow passenger enplanement and commercial

operations at EWN into the future. Forecasts for general aviation activity at EWN can expect slow but

sustained growth for operations and based aircraft.

Future growth is closely tied to the economic success of the community, including the military presence

and growth in local manufacturing and health care. Socioeconomic projections produced by the state and

others show that the New Bern MSA will continue to add jobs and the economy will diversify. Population

centers such as New Bern and Havelock will grow, albeit at a slow pace.

CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate 2016 Enplanements and Based Aircraft: Airport Management 2016 Operations: Airport Traffic Control Tower Records 2036: Preferred Aviation Forecast

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Aviation activity forecasts evaluates the

future demand at EWN. This chapter

forecasts the following activities:

passenger enplanements, cargo volume,

based aircraft and aircraft operations

(local and itinerant). The forecasts have

a base year of 2016, and use the FAA

fiscal year (October to September). The

forecast period is 20 years, with five-

year reporting intervals. Several

forecasting methodologies are applied

to each activity, and are compared with

the Federal Aviation Administration

(FAA) Terminal Area Forecast (TAF).

Aviation activity forecasts are used to

determine facility requirements, an

assessment of what facilities the Airport

has compared to what facilities the

Airport needs in the future. These

forecasts are reviewed and are to be

formally approved by the FAA Memphis

Airports District Office (ADO) with

respect to their rational and concurrence

with FAA forecasting.

The chapter is organized in the following

sections: 2. Community Profile

3. Aviation Activity Profile

4. Scheduled Service Forecasts

5. General Aviation Forecasts

6. Peaking and Critical Aircraft

7. Forecast Summary

Data sources used in this chapter are described in Figure 2-2.

Aircraft Operation: A count of a takeoff, landing, or

touch-and-go. Each time an aircraft touches the runway to

takeoff or land, it counts as an operation.

Airport Reference Code: Used to determine facility size

and setback requirements. The airport reference code is a

composite of the approach category and design group of

the critical aircraft.

Approach Category: Classification of an aircraft by

approach speed, with “A” being the slowest and “E” being

the fastest.

Based Aircraft: Aircraft that are stored at EWN. These

aircraft may be stored full-time, or seasonally.

Critical Aircraft: The most demanding aircraft (in terms

of size and/or speed) to use an airport over 500 times a

year, or have scheduled operations at an airport.

Design Group: Classification of an aircraft by its size

(wingspan and tail height) with “I” being the smallest and

“VI” being the largest.

Enplanement: The act of a passenger boarding a

scheduled or charter aircraft with more than nine seats,

operating under FAR Part 121 or Part 135 regulations.

General Aviation (GA): Aviation activities conducted by

recreational, business, and charter users not operating as

airlines under FAR Part 121, Part 135, or military

regulations.

Itinerant Operation: An operation that originates and

terminates at different airports. An example is an aircraft

flying from EWN to another airport.

Local Operation: An operation that originates and

terminates at the same airport. An example is an aircraft

taking off from EWN, remaining near the airport to

practice flight maneuvers, and then landing at EWN.

Touch-and-Go: A maneuver where an aircraft lands and

takes off without leaving the runway. A touch-and-go

counts as two aircraft operations.

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The community profile shows where

EWN is located, and describes the

community it serves.

EWN serves the City of New Bern,

which is in Craven County, North

Carolina. Craven County is part of the

New Bern Metropolitan Statistical Area

(MSA), which includes Jones County to

the southwest and Pamlico County to the

east. The New Bern MSA is located near

the Outer Banks Island chain on the east

side of the state, which is a popular

recreational destination. New Bern is the

most populous city in the county,

followed by the City of Havelock to the

southeast.

Other regional commercial service airports in the area include Pitt-Greenville Airport (PGV) in

Greenville and Albert J. Ellis Airport (OAJ) in Jacksonville, and Raleigh-Durham International Airport

(RDU). PGV is 50 miles north, OAJ is 50 miles southwest, and RDU is 130 miles west. EWN is 215

miles west of the state’s primary commercial service airport in Charlotte.

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The New Bern MSA has

experienced near flat population

over the past ten years, and has not

been as impacted by population

emigration to larger cities as other

smaller communities in North

Carolina have been since the 2009

Recession. As shown in Figure 2-

3, over 80 percent of the MSA

population lives in Craven County,

and 23 percent of the MSA

population lives in the City of New Bern. There are no other large urban areas in the MSA outside of New

Bern and Havelock. Population declines in Havelock, Trent Woods, and River Bend have occurred largely

due to economic circumstances; however, the outmigration trend is stabilizing and the communities were

stable from 2009 to 2015. Population in the MSA has remained flat over the past ten years.

The 2016 Office of State Budget Management

(OSBM) Population Forecast for the New

Bern MSA, shown in Figure 2-4, shows a

very slight decline of -0.1 percent per year

expected through 2036. OSBM forecasts are

based on data collected from state, county,

and local government, and the military. The

modest decline is likely due to historical

trends, which influence OSBM projections.

For purposes of comparison, population

projections by Woods & Poole (W&P) are

presented. W&P projections have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.7 percent, and a net gain

of 24,257 people. To put the W&P forecasts in perspective, OSBM expects that the state will grow at one

percent per year through 2036. The difference between the two projections is whether the New Bern MSA

will grow as it has in the past, or if it will grow faster as new industry appears.

Source: OSBM

Source: OSBM, forecast date October 2016 CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate (2016-2036)

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The following section describes the local economy, and discusses what activities and changes to local

industry could drive population growth to resemble the OSBM forecast or the W&P forecast. Through

interviews conducted, local economic development bodies believe that population will maintain at existing

levels, and a growth spurt is not expected. Therefore, the OSBM forecast will be used to project future

aviation activity.

Aviation activity is inextricably linked to

economic activity. Commerce moves people

and products in and out of a community.

Success of local businesses will drive aviation

activity into the future for both general and

commercial aviation. Major employers were

interviewed during the data collection phase of

the inventory, and highlights are summarized

herein, and total MSA Employment is shown in

Figure 2-5, and top industries are shown in

Figure 2-6. Figure 2-5 shows the W&P

forecast for industry growth through 2036.

Major Employers:

• German appliance manufacturer BSH (Bosch) has manufacturing, and research and development

facilities in New Bern. They move employees and freight in and out of the area.

• American plumbing fixture manufacturer Moen Faucets has their manufacturing headquarters in

New Bern. Like BSH, Moen employees and freight contribute to the Airport’s numbers.

• American boat builder Hatteras Yachts has 550 local employees and is looking to add 300 more

in the coming years. Customers occasionally use General Aviation to fly in and out during the

design and build of their boat, and Hatteras sales and mechanical staff travel frequently.

• The healthcare industry, including the local hospital, is a major regional employer with primary

facilities in New Bern. A new cancer center is coming to the local hospital which will add high

wage jobs, and increase travel to the region for treatment. Healthcare professions own some of

the aircraft based at EWN, and travel commercially for business and leisure. Medical supplies are

often shipped by air freight.

Jobs per Capita = Total Employment / Total Population Sources: Employment: Woods & Poole, Population: OSBM

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• Marine Corps Air Station (MCAS) Cherry Point has nearly 14,000 military and civilian employees,

located in Havelock with a total Base population of 53,000. MCAS Cherry Point host the U.S.

Navy’s Facility Readiness Center (FRC) East, which repairs and maintains equipment for the

Marines and Navy across the country. Economic development estimates that 35,000 of people,

including dependents and spouses, live in Craven County because of the MCAS and FRC. GSA

records for FY2017 show over 9,000 tickets for DoD personnel were allocated to departures from

EWN. This accounts for nearly 10 percent of annual passenger enplanements.

Jobs per capita shows that total employment has been growing at a faster rate than total population,

suggesting that people are moving to the New Bern MSA for work, and the slight population decline does

not indicate that jobs are leaving the community. It is expected that this trend will continue.

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∆ = Total percent change from period before (5 years). Retail Sales presented in millions of inflation-adjusted 2016 dollars. F&B Retail = Food and Beverage Retail (e.g. grocery stores). Gen. Merchandise: = General Merchandise is a wide array of retail except for food and beverage (e.g. clothing, hardware, etc.). Source: Woods & Poole, 2016.

Figure 2-6 shows the impact of the 2009 recession on employment levels and

retail sales on the New Bern MSA economy. Federal (Military) and State and

Local Government employment were not as sensitive to the recession and

remained relatively stable throughout the ten-year period. Employees were

not added or lost in large numbers. Healthcare employment, due to the

growth of the local hospital, saw a rise over the ten-year period. The change

in total healthcare employment has caused some reshuffling of the top

industries by employment over the past ten years. More health care workers

are coming to the New Bern MSA, which is moving other industries, like

Federal (Civilian) employment down the list despite maintaining roughly the

same number of total employees. As shown in Figure 2-4, total population

of the New Bern MSA has grown between 2006 and 2016, which considering

the recession, has helped grow overall retail sales. Motor vehicles exhibited

some post-recession volatility as some consumers put off large purchases until

the economy improved. Overall retail purchase, both Food and Beverage and

General Merchandise, have exhibited growth from 2006 to 2016 as the

population of the MSA has grown. Total retail sales for the New Bern MSA

have grown by an average annual rate of 1.3 percent from 2006 to 2016 from

$1.3 billion to $1.5 billion in inflation adjusted 2016 dollars. Growth in retail

sales has exceeded population growth, showing that consumers in the New

Bern MSA have increased their spending power.

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∆ = Total percent change from period before (10 years). Retail Sales presented in millions of inflation-adjusted 2016 dollars. F&B Retail = Food and Beverage Retail (e.g. grocery stores). Accom.+ Food Serv. = Accommodation and Food Services (e.g. hotels). Source: Woods & Poole

Employment projections for the MSA are generally positive. Healthcare is

expected to continue growing, projecting double digit percentage growth

every ten years, becoming the second largest industry in terms of employment

over the next 20 years. Federal (Military) employment will remain the top

industry in terms of employment, but is not expected to exhibit dramatic

growth. One factor that could change the growth in Federal (Military)

employment is whether the F-35 program is located at MCAS Cherry Point.

It is expected that if this program moves to the area, it will grow employment

on the MCAS, and around the MCAS through civilian contractors and

suppliers.

There is little change in the top five industries by retail sales ranking over the

next 20 years, and all the top five are expected to exhibit strong growth. Total

retail sales are expected to grow at a CAGR of 1.2 percent from $1.5 billion

in 2016 to $1.9 billion in 2036, in inflation-adjusted 2016 dollars. Growth in

retail sales is expected to continue to outpace growth in population, as the

local economy is expected to add jobs, particularly in the high wage healthcare

field. Engineering and technical manufacturing jobs associated with

contractors for the F-35 program, should it locate at MCAS Cherry Point, will

continue this trend.

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Gross regional product (GRP) is the value of goods

and services produced in the New Bern MSA, and

GRP serves as an index for the health of the overall

economy. Figure 2-8 shows the GRP of New Bern

MSA over the past ten years.

GRP is driven by major industries in the MSA,

including Moen Faucets, BSH, and Hatteras Yachts.

The federal, state, and local government, particularly

through expenditures at MCAS Cherry Point, is the

single largest driver of the local economy. A 2015

study released by MCAS Cherry Point put the base’s

overall economic impact at two billion dollars, with

$1.2 billion in salaries and $800 million in other

expenditures such as procurement of goods and

services for the base, its staff, and eligible

dependents.

W&P forecasts for GRP growth expect another $2.3

billion in over the next 20 years. As shown by other

economic indicators, the rate of job growth is

expected to exceed the rate of population growth,

which implies that new residents to the New Bern

MSA will be working. This will increase overall

production, which will cause growth in GRP. GRP

forecasts are shown in Figure 2-9.

CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate. GRP in inflation-adjusted 2016 dollars Source: Woods & Poole.

CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate. GRP in inflation-adjusted 2016 dollars. Source: Woods & Poole.

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The military presence in and around the New Bern MSA has a profound impact on the economy and the

Airport. Military personnel and contractors fly in and out of EWN; FedEx Express serves the three nearby

bases from EWN; and approach and departure control in and out of the Airport is handled by military air

traffic controllers. Military aircraft, both fixed wing and helicopters, occasionally operate at EWN, and 80

percent of the students that learn to fly at the on-airport flight school are active and retired military. The

City of Havelock is heavily dependent on MCAS Cherry Point and while the City of New Bern has a more

diverse industry base, many residents and local businesses are directly and indirectly dependent on the

base.

In addition to MCAS Cherry Point, MCAS New River is located 30 nautical miles south of New Bern,

near the City of Jacksonville. Camp Lejeune, another U.S. Marine Corps base is also located near

Jacksonville. Jacksonville’s Airport, OAJ, handles much of the commercial activity associated with MCAS

New River and Camp Lejeune; however, FedEx Express serves these two bases via truck from EWN.

The impact of the military on commercial operations at EWN is estimated using ticket purchase

agreements between the DoD and the airlines, as reported by GSA. For FY2017, GSA reports that the

DoD has contracted with American Airlines for 7,964 tickets originating from EWN, and with Delta Air

Lines for 1,240 tickets. These tickets are primarily for destinations in the U.S.; however, there are

arrangements for 122 departures destined to Japan. Comparatively, OAJ has arrangements for 27,594

departures due to the larger military presence near that airport.

MCAS Cherry Point has served as a stable source of local employment, and passenger enplanements and

air freight over the past ten years. There is always the risk of Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC)

shutting the base down and moving the units elsewhere; however, local stakeholders have indicated that

the risk of this happening is slim. The MCAS has plans to continue operating as it has in the past; however,

a major change that could occur in the near-term hinges on a decision by the DoD on where to base units

that are part of the U.S. Marine Corps F-35 aircraft program. The F-35 is slated to replace the F/A-18

Hornet and AV-8B Harrier for the Marine Corps.

MCAS Cherry Point is under consideration for the F-35 program and it is expected that should the

program locate there, it will create a wave of ancillary economic impacts throughout the New Bern MSA.

Lockheed Martin, the F-35’s designer, claims that the program already provides the state of North Carolina

with 1,220 jobs and $103 million in annual economic impact through suppliers to the program. The F-35

is built with the latest computer and engine technology, and will require many civilian contractors to

support and maintain the aircraft as they enter service.

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The aviation activity profile is the baseline behind the forecasts. Combined with the community profile in

Section 2, it explains the numbers. Furthermore, the aviation activity profile showcases trends in aviation

activity at EWN and provides narrative that explains how and why changes have occurred. Information is

included from sources such as the FAA, airport management, the ATCT, airport tenants, and local business

owners that use the Airport. This section is organized as follows.

• Airline Service (Passenger and Cargo)

• General Aviation

• Military

• FAA Terminal Area Forecast

Air service includes scheduled and charter passenger airlines, and air cargo operators. It does not include

aircraft that transport passengers classified as general aviation, such as corporate jets, and pilots flying

friends and family from place to place. Most airline service at EWN is scheduled; however, the Airport

sees occasional service by charter airlines that provide air service for large groups.

EWN has two scheduled passenger airlines: American Airlines and Delta Air Lines. In 2016, American

carried 75 percent of passengers and Delta carried 25 percent. EWN has nonstop service to two

destinations: Charlotte-Douglas International (CLT) on American and Atlanta Hartsfield International

(ATL) on Delta. These airports are hubs for their respective airlines and put passengers flying from EWN

within one stop of most major cities in North America, South America, Europe, and some major cities in

Asia and Africa. Sixty-three percent of EWN’s service was on turboprop aircraft like the Dash 8-100/300

and 37 percent was on regional jet aircraft like the CRJ-200/700 in 2016.

American offers five to six departures per day using turboprop and small regional jets. The carrier is

looking to transition to an all jet fleet over the next five years, and the trend is for larger regional jets (CRJ-

700) to replace those with 50 seats or less (CRJ-200). Notably, American is running relatively high load

factors in the low to mid-80 percent range that allows additional flexibility for more seats in the market.

Delta offers one to two departures per day depending on the day of the week. Delta’s load factors have

slightly outperformed American and continue to reach above the low to mid-80s during peak travel

periods. Two daily departures are generally considered to be the minimum number for viable air service as

anything less severely limits passenger choice and may drive them to use a different airline or different

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airport. Delta operates 50-seat CRJ-200 aircraft between EWN and their ATL hub; however, the carrier is

retiring these aircraft and replacing them with aircraft that have more seats.

Passenger enplanements are counts of passengers who board a scheduled commercial and charter aircraft

with more than nine seats for turboprops (or any number of seats for jet aircraft), and operating under the

rules of Title 14 Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) Part 121. Passengers on aircraft operated under the

rules of 14 CFR Part 91 and 14 CFR Part 135 are not counted towards passenger enplanements. Passengers

enplanements include revenue and non-revenue passengers who paid taxes and facility charges for their

carriage, but do not include pilots, flight attendants, and other members of airline crew.

Passenger enplanements are classified by the role of the air carrier carrying passengers. Air carrier

enplanements are those that occur on large carriers, such as American and Delta. Air Taxi / Commuter

enplanements are those that occur on feeder carriers that operate on a contract basis with the air carriers.

These include Piedmont Airlines, Atlantic Southeast Airlines, and Air Wisconsin. Outside of fewer than

1,000 exceptions over the past ten years, passengers flying out of EWN have been classified as Air Taxi /

Commuter enplanements.

Passenger enplanements at EWN have exhibited an overall growth trend over the past ten years despite

decline from 2012 to 2016. Recovery after the 2009 Recession was initially strong, but eventually slowed

and began to decline due to the airlines changing their schedules and making it less convenient for

passengers to fly from EWN. Passenger enplanements are shown in Figure 2-10.

Sources: 2006-2015 FAA 2016 TAF, 2016 Airport Management Records

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Changes in flight frequency have been brought about by airlines increasing the number of seats on aircraft,

crew and equipment shortages limiting what routes can be served, and the average yield on a route which

incentivizes airlines to add or reduce service. More seats per departure means that the same number of

customers can be served on fewer flights. Cost per available seat mile (CASM), a commonly used airline

metric to evaluate route performance, is typically lower on a larger aircraft if the stage length is appropriate

for the aircraft’s design. While fewer departures can save money for airlines and help certain markets retain

air service, it reduces passenger choice and can cause leakage to other airports.

Airline aircraft operations are categorized as either air carrier or air taxi. Operation categorization is based

on aircraft seating capacity, regardless of whether a mainline carrier or a feeder carrier operates the route.

The point of distinction is 60 passenger seats. Aircraft such as American’s CRJ-700 count as Air Carrier

operations, and Delta’s CRJ-200 and American’s Dash-8 count as Air Taxi operations. Flight frequency

history for the Part 121 passenger carriers is shown in Figure 2-11. Air cargo and Part 135 air taxi

operations are included in later sections.

316 4,300 4,616 484 5,511 5,995 29.9% 564 6,338 6,902 15.1% 560 6,213 6,773 -1.9% 360 6,136 6,496 -4.1% 192 6,360 6,552 0.9% 108 6,908 7,016 7.1% 34 6,776 6,810 -2.9% 22 6,164 6,186 -9.2% 54 5,282 5,336 -13.7%

192 5,236 5,428 1.7%

Sources: 2006-2015 USDOT T-100 Database, 2016 FAA TFMSC

Over the past ten years, EWN saw operations grow quickly until the decline triggered by high oil prices

and the 2009 recession. The effect of airlines reducing frequency is most pronounced in 2014 and 2015.

Carriers have reduced seating capacity to EWN, and routes are primarily operated by aircraft with fewer

than 60 seats. While this has helped maintain frequencies in the near-term, the trend with the airlines is to

retire aircraft with 60 or fewer seats. As these aircraft are phased out, the EWN market must be able to fill

the larger replacement aircraft to avoid the airlines cutting frequencies to achieve desired average yields

and load factors.

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Load factors for arrivals and departures from the third quarter of 2013 through the second quarter of 2016

were determined for EWN, shown in Figure 2-12. American flights to CLT and Delta flights to ATL were

the major focus for load factors since both routes offer passengers access to major airports with

connections to domestic and international destinations and flights back to EWN. American load factors

ranged from a low of 69 in quarter one of 2014 and peaked to 91 in quarter two of 2015. Delta load factors

ranged from a low of 71 in quarter one of 2015 and peaked to 88 in quarter two of 2015. Overall load

factors for airlines fell to a low of 72 in quarter one of 2014 and peaked to 90 in quarter two of 2015.

EWN has peak period during the third quarter and a weak period during the first quarter for load factors

during this period.

The load factor discussion illustrates the seasonality of passenger travel to EWN. Winter months are less

busy than summer, and airlines reduce the number of seats offered to the EWN market accordingly. This

is not uncommon across the country, and airlines generally match their schedule to the expected level of

demand in the markets that they serve.

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An airport catchment area (or service area), is a geographic area surrounding an airport where it can

reasonably expect to draw passenger traffic and is representative of the local market. The catchment area

contains the population of travelers who should use EWN considering the drive time from the catchment

area to competing airports, and is based on zip codes associated with airline ticket purchases for travelers

who flew from EWN. The catchment area of commercial air service includes the New Bern MSA, with

some spillover into adjacent counties.

The number of travelers generated by the catchment area is known as the true market. These passengers

did not all use EWN but live in proximity of the Airport and it is possible that they could have used EWN

if the price, schedule, and airline choice fit their needs. The EWN catchment area generated 422,448

passengers for the year ending June 2016. A map of the catchment area is shown in Figure 2-13.

Fifty-one percent of catchment area travelers used EWN, while 38 percent diverted to Raleigh-Durham

International Airport (RDU), 7 percent diverted to Jacksonville’s Albert J. Ellis Airport (OAJ) and 4

percent diverted to other airports. Fifty-three percent of domestic travelers and 30 percent of international

travelers in the catchment area used EWN. New Bern is located 52 miles (an approximate one-hour drive)

from OAJ and 130 miles (an approximate 2 hour, 5-minute drive) from RDU. Due to the relative proximity

of RDU and the substantial level of nonstop service, most domestic and international diverting passengers

from EWN use RDU as their primary alternate airport. While OAJ is closer in terms of proximity and

drive time, the level of service offered (which is like EWN) makes it experience only a small amount of

diversion from EWN. Airport use by community is shown in Figure 2-14.

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Travelers drive to competing airports to access air service for many reasons, one of which is nonstop

service availability. In June 2016, EWN offered nonstop service to two markets: Atlanta and Charlotte,

serving two of the top 25 markets with 57 weekly departures. Conversely, RDU offered a total of 990

weekly departures to 24 of the top 25 markets from the EWN catchment area. Like EWN, OAJ offered

service to the same two destinations of the top 25 markets, with a slightly higher 68 weekly departures.

The top 50 markets for travelers from the EWN catchment area are shown in Figure 2-15.

The quality of air service offered by an airport is a factor in a traveler’s decision when selecting where to

originate or terminate air service. In general, passengers prefer larger aircraft over smaller aircraft and jet

aircraft over turboprop aircraft. In June 2016, EWN offered 57 weekly departures and 2,752 weekly seats,

with 63 percent of flights on turboprop aircraft and 37 percent on regional jet aircraft. RDU had 140,899

seats on 1,286 weekly departures, with 50 percent of flights on regional jets. OAJ provided 68 weekly

departures with 4,030 weekly seats, with 15 percent of flights on turboprop aircraft and 85 percent of

flights on regional jet aircraft.

While proximity to an airport, nonstop service, and quality of air service play roles in the decision of a

traveler to use an airport, the most important factor to consider is the price of airfare.

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When a traveler decides which airport to access for travel, airfares play a large role. Airfares affect air

service demand and an airport’s ability to retain passengers. One-way airfares (excluding taxes and

Passenger Facility Charges (PFC) paid by travelers are used to measure the relative fare competitiveness

between EWN and the competing airports. Average airfares are shown in Figure 2-16.

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Source: Diio Mi; Note: Year Ended June 30, 2016; Fares do not include taxes or Passenger Facility Charges

Average airfares are a result of many factors including: length of haul, availability of seats, business versus

leisure fares and airline competition. The overall average fare for the year ended June 30, 2016, at EWN

was $212, $42 higher than RDU and $7 lower than OAJ. In individual markets, EWN had the highest fare

in 12 of the top 25 markets compared to diverting airports. Most of the destinations had similar fares from

both EWN and OAJ, with RDU having fares lower in all but three markets. The consistent fare disparity

in much of top markets between EWN and RDU (which draws most of the diversion) is likely the largest

single contributing factor to diversion from the EWN catchment area.

Air cargo services are operated by FedEx Express and MartinAir, which operates on behalf of UPS. FedEx

reports cargo volume and operations to the USDOT while MartinAir does not. The air cargo operation at

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EWN serves the New Bern MSA, the Carolina Coast, and the nearby communities of Kinston to the east

and Jacksonville to the south via truck. Trucks bring the cargo to EWN, where it is put on an aircraft.

FedEx uses Cessna 208 Caravans and ATR-42s. Cargo is flown to and from Greensboro, where it is

consolidated and sent on to Memphis and Indianapolis. The FedEx station manager reports that the

military bases, car dealerships, BSH, and Moen are primary customers for air cargo. The military bases

alone generate hundreds of packages per day.

UPS operates in a similar manner where cargo is collected via truck and then flown to a nearby airport for

consolidation and shipment onto the UPS Louisville hub. Due to TSA cargo screening requirements,

passenger airlines do not accept much cargo. A summary of air cargo activity is shown in Figure 2-17.

Sources: 2006-2016 USDOT T-100 Database

Air cargo is subject to peaking and during busy periods, such as over Christmas, Mother’s Day, and

Valentine’s Day, average cargo load can near 100 percent on inbound flights. Cargo operators are able to

vary aircraft size and flight frequency as needed to respond to peaks, and year round operations have

remained steady outside of a spike in growth from 2006 to 2007. Cargo volume is tied to the local economy

and the nature of the businesses in the catchment area.

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General aviation businesses include those that offer services to pilots, passenger, and aircraft, offer flight

training, provide emergency response services, and are businesses that use general aviation aircraft to

transport goods, employees, and customers. These businesses help attract itinerant users and support based

users. Understanding the nature of GA businesses on the airfield defines what markets segments the

Airport serves, and what unserved segments could be served by existing businesses.

• Tidewater Air Services: Tidewater is the Airport’s fixed base operator (FBO), providing fuel, line

service, and pilot services. Tidewater sells fuel to general aviation and scheduled commercial

airlines, and is the sole fuel provider on the airfield. Tidewater does not offer aircraft maintenance

and directs customers to the maintenance business located on the airfield. Tidewater rents tie-

downs and apron parking space to itinerant aircraft.

• Tradewind Maintenance: This business sells and installs aircraft parts, and provides maintenance

for Piper, Cessna, and Beechcraft airplanes. The mechanics are trained on piston and turboprop

engines and attract aircraft from around the state for maintenance services. Tradewind does not

maintain turbo-jet aircraft or engines.

• Tradewind International: This business is a certified Part 61 and Part 141 flight school. The school

has nine single engine piston aircraft. Presence of the military facilities provides a steady stream of

customers to Tradewind, and the businesses estimates that 80 percent of their students are either

enlisted, or have recently retired. Students coming from the military can use the G.I. Bill to help

fund the cost of their flight training. Tradewind typically has 12-15 students at a given time, and

encourages students to fly three times a week. Peak seasons for flight training are the summer and

fall, and business slows down in the winter.

• PlaneConnection: PlaneConection is a current aircraft management company and a prospective

airline that is affiliated with Tradewind International and is in the process of completing its Part

135 certification with the FAA. PlaneConnection intends to offer services between RDU,

Grensboro, and EWN. If successful, the business will look at establishing service from EWN to

the Carolina Outer Banks, located east of EWN. At present, PlaneConnection manages two single

engine piston and one multi engine piston aircraft for private owners.

• Eastern Aviation Fuels: Eastern Aviation Fuels’ corporate offices are not located on the airfield;

however, the founder and chairman owns a hangar at EWN and bases two Cessna jets and a

helicopter at the Airport. Eastern is the marketer of Shell brand aviation fuels nationwide.

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Itinerant general aviation operations are those that

originate or terminate flight at an airport besides

EWN. These operations are made up of business

travelers coming to and from the community, student

pilots performing cross country training flights, and

recreational pilots that are after the $100 hamburger,

named for the cost of the hamburger once you add in

the fuel it took to fly to the restaurant. A summary of

itinerant general aviation operations from 2006 to

2016 is shown in Figure 2-18.

While many local businesses and the military use

scheduled commercial aircraft to move in and out of

the area, there are several local businesses and

customers of local businesses that fly general aviation

aircraft in and out of EWN. Truly transient users, or

those that stop in EWN to rest and refuel on their way between two other airports, are also counted as

itinerant operations. A summary of itinerant operations drivers is below.

• EWN is located on the flyway between the Northeast and the Southeast, which makes them an

option for a rest-stop for cross country travelers.

• Pepsi Cola was created in New Bern in 1898. Although no longer headquartered there, the Pepsi

Corporation Board of Directors have meetings in New Bern.

• Hatteras Yachts customers fly in and out of EWN during the design and build of their boat.

• Celebrities, including author Nicholas Sparks and PGA golfers, live in the surrounding area and

use general aviation to come and go.

• New Bern is a former pilot base for Piedmont Airlines. Although the base was closed in 2015,

many pilots live in the area and fly for recreation.

• Proximity to the Outer Banks attracts leisure travelers.

• EWN is the closest civilian airport to MCAS Cherry Point, making it attractive to civilian

contractors flying to do business at the MCAS.

• The flight school estimates that 20 percent of annual flight hours are spent on cross country flying.

Relative change in itinerant general aviation operations at EWN is compared to the state and the country

in Figure 2-19.

Source: FAA 2017 TAF and EWN ATCT

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Sources: FAA 2017 TAF, FAA OPSNET, and EWN ATCT

Itinerant GA traffic is down nationwide compared to the base year of 2006. While EWN traffic has

traditionally seen more of a decrease when compared to state and national totals, the uptick reported by

the control tower in 2016 has put EWN between North Carolina and the U.S. for 2016. Reasons for the

overall national decline include the following.

• A general decline in recreational flying that followed the recession of 2009.

• Aging of the U.S. pilot population and the retirement of aircraft and pilots.

• Public perception causing some businesses and government organizations to decrease the

amount of corporate flying, or eliminate it entirely.

The past two years have seen itinerant GA traffic grow at EWN, and continued economic development

in the MSA, and improving conditions in the U.S. may cause this trend to continue.

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Some Part 135 general aviation operators get logged

in the TAF as “Air Taxi” operations, but passengers

on these flights are not counted towards

enplanements because they do not use the passenger

terminal or pay facility charges, and Part 135 flights

are considered unscheduled. Examples of Part 135 air

taxi operations include companies like NetJets and

MarquisJet, which provide point-to-point private jet

service on demand. What separates these operations

from itinerant business jet and turboprop operations

is that the air transportation company owns the

aircraft and employs the pilots, and not the passengers

(or the passengers company). The ATCT does not log

these operations separately; however the total number

can be counted by deducting airline and cargo flights

from the air taxi operations count. Part 135 Air Taxi

operations are shown in Figure 2-20.

Part 135 air taxi operations have been highly variable at EWN. Although operations have declined since

2014, overall itinerant GA operations have grown. Given the small number of overall operations, it is

possible for a change for one user, such as an individual who travels frequently or a company that uses a

Part 135 operator to move employees around, can have a substantial impact on overall operations. As

noted, a Part 135 operator is undergoing FAA certification and could begin operations at EWN in 2017.

The planned daily service could triple annual Part 135 operations at EWN.

Sources: FAA 2017 TAF and EWN ATCT

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Local general aviation operations are those that

originate and terminate at EWN. These operations are

primarily made up of student pilots practicing landings

and takeoffs, and include recreational pilots

maintaining proficiency. A summary of local general

aviation operations from 2006 to 2016 is shown in

Figure 2-21.

The presence of the flight school at EWN drives

much of the local general aviation operations and the

flight school and ATCT estimate that 75 percent of

local operations are students. A summary of local

operations drivers and considerations are below.

Estimates of local flight training operations are shown

in Figure 2-22.

• Flight training operates throughout the year

with hours flown varying based on season as described below.

o Winter (December to February): Five percent of hours.

o Spring (March to May): 35 percent of hours.

o Summer (June to August): 25 percent of hours.

o Fall (September to November): 35 percent of hours.

• The head instructor estimates that 80 percent of flight hours are spent on local flying.

• An estimated 80 percent of students are currently in, or have recently left the military and were

stationed nearby.

• Students perform up to an average of four operations per hour when flying in the pattern, which

includes time spent on the ground taxiing.

• Demand for flight training follows the financial health of the airline industry. When airlines are

hiring, students begin training.

Sources: FAA 2017 TAF and EWN ATCT

Source: Tradewind International records. FY2017 is an estimate. Estimated 3.375 operations per flight hour for local training.

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Relative change in itinerant general aviation operations at EWN is compared to the state and the country

in Figure 2-23.

Sources: FAA 2017 TAF and EWN ATCT

Like local operations, EWN saw a decline of local general aviation operations of greater proportion than

the national average in local operations following the 2009 recession. Local operations have been

recovering, and certification of the flight school to make it eligible to offer training under the G.I. Bill have

contributed to the growth.

While flight training, which makes up an estimated 75 percent of local operations at EWN, is returning to

growth, recreational proficiency flying among the based pilots at EWN has not. Flight training operations

have fluctuated less than total local operations over the past four years, suggesting that the flight training

market is more stable than the recreational general aviation market. Possible causes for this are similar to

the cause for a decline in itinerant operations, and include financial hardship following the recession, and

the aging of the pilot population. In the U.S. local operations have remained ten percent below 2006 levels

despite the improving economy.

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Based aircraft are those that are hangered and stored at EWN, and based aircraft totals do not include

visiting, or itinerant, aircraft. Based aircraft are classified into broad categories by the FAA based on the

aircraft’s propulsion system, engine configuration, and weight. As of 2016, SEP aircraft are the most

common type at EWN, with 72 aircraft making up 87 percent of the based fleet. There were three MEPs,

three jets, two helicopters, and three experimental aircraft based at EWN in 2016. Based aircraft records

from 2006 to 2016 are shown in Figure 2-24.

Single Engine Piston (SEP): SEP have one piston powered engine. These aircraft are generally

smaller and are often used for flight training and recreational flying. SEP may be used for regional

business trips. Depending on weight and operator certification, these aircraft generally require only

one pilot.

Multi-Engine Piston (MEP): MEP have two or more engines and are typically larger than SEP.

Multiple engines make the aircraft more capable, and requires additional flight instruction beyond

what is needed to operate a SEP. MEP are primarily used for flight training and business aviation.

MEP may require two pilots, but many variants can be operated with one.

Jet: Jet aircraft are characterized for having a turbine engine instead of a piston engine. These aircraft

may have turbojets, or a turboprop. Jet aircraft range in size from small four-passenger business jets

to the largest airliners. They can generally fly faster and at higher altitudes than SEP and MEP,

making them better suited for business travel and emergency response. It is less common, but not

unheard of, to see a jet used for recreational flying and flight instruction. Some smaller civilian jets

can operate with a single pilot; however, most civilian jet aircraft require two.

Helicopter: Helicopters are characterized by having a rotor mounted above the cabin for lift and

propulsion. Helicopters are commonly used for flight training, by law enforcement and emergency

response, and by aerial businesses such as pipeline inspection, forestry, and aerial agriculture.

Helicopters can be piston or turbine powered, and depending on the complexity of the model, can be

operated by one pilot or two.

Experimental (Exp.): Exp. aircraft refer to kit airplanes that are built by users, or third-parties

besides the original manufacturer. Exp. aircraft share many characteristics with SEP – the key

differentiator is how and where the aircraft is assembled. Exp. aircraft are primarily used for

recreational flying.

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Sources: 2006-2015 FAA 2017 TAF, 2016 Airport Management Records

Nationwide, the composition of the based aircraft fleet is changing and fleet changes at EWN reflect

national trends. The SEP fleet is declining as aircraft age and are retired. SEP aircraft are being built;

however, the rate of retirement exceeds the rate of entry into service. Replacing SEP are new classes of

aircraft called “light sport” (LSA) and experimental (Exp.). These aircraft are often cheaper to buy than a

new SEP, and require fewer training hours and a more relaxed medical certificate to fly with the advent of

the light sport license.

Jet aircraft, both turbine and turboprop, are replacing MEP for business travel, and helicopters are showing

growth nationwide. While EWN does not have any based LSA, the flight school has indicated that LSA

training is a possibility if demand presents itself. The FAA Aerospace Forecast growth rates for 2001 to

2015 are shown in Figure 2-25.

Source: FAA Aerospace Forecast 2016-2036

While the composition of the general aviation fleet is changing, overall aircraft totals are remaining at about

the same level. Relative change in based aircraft at EWN is compared to the state and the country in

Figure 2-26.

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Sources: EWN 2006-2015 and others 2006-2016 FAA 2017 TAF, EWN 2016 Airport Management

Based aircraft levels at EWN have remained near 2006 levels for the past ten years, performing better

(proportionally) to the state and the U.S. Although based levels have not changed much, itinerant and local

operations counts show that the aircraft based at EWN are not being flown as often as other active aircraft.

General aviation operations per based aircraft (OPBA) for EWN, North Carolina, and the U.S. are shown

in Figure 2-27.

Calculation = (Local Civil Operations + Itinerant GA Operations)/Based Aircraft EWN 2006-2015 and others 2006-2016 FAA 2017 TAF, EWN 2016 Airport Management and EWN ATCT.

The decline in OPBA is caused by decline in recreational flying because flight school records show that

flight training operations are growing. The flight school has nine of the 83 based aircraft, which means

that the other 74 owned by other tenants, do not fly as frequently. Itinerant general aviation operations

have shown an increase over the past two years, which will improve OPBA.

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Although there are no military aircraft based at EWN, the Airport occasionally sees military activity from

the nearby MCASs at Cherry Point and New River. Military aircraft routinely stop at civilian airports to

refuel, handle technical issues, train, and provide time for crew rest during cross country flights. Military

operations are presented in Figure 2-28.

Sources: 2006-2015 FAA 2016 TAF, 2016 FAA OPSNET and EWN ATCT

Military operations are not broken up by branch of the military or by base of the aircraft. Some operations

may come from aircraft based at nearby MCAS like Cherry Point and New River, and some may come

from Coast Guard, Navy, Air Force, and Army aircraft based across the country. Military flight activity is

driven by needs of the DoD and not subject to free market forces to the same extent as civilian aviation.

For this reason, the airport master plans at airports without based military aircraft, or the expectation that

they will receive heavy military use, tend to not focus on military operations and therefore accept FAA

projections. Also, military operations are not typically used for the justification of new airport facilities at

civilian airports as stipulated by the FAA Airport Improvement Program (AIP).

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The TAF is the official FAA forecast for EWN, and forecasts generated for the Airport are compared to

the TAF. When the FAA approves an airport-generated forecast, it will be used to update the TAF in the

coming FAA fiscal year. The forecasts can be approved by Airports District Office staff if they are within

the tolerances of ten percent of the TAF over the five-year forecast period, and within fifteen percent of

the TAF over the ten-year forecast period. Deviation from the TAF tolerances elevates forecast review

and approval to FAA headquarters, and additional information may be requested prior to approval.

The TAF forecasts passenger enplanements, operations, and based aircraft. It does not forecast operations

by aircraft type, peak activity levels, critical aircraft, or air cargo. Military forecasts are typically flat, based

on the most recent year of activity.

The TAF uses for this forecast effort was published on January 2017, and uses data from 2016. The TAF

uses the FAA fiscal year (FY), which begins October 1. Airport and air traffic control tower (ATCT)

records were compared to the TAF for FY2016. Operations data matches; however, passenger

enplanements and based aircraft differ. Discussion of the impact that this difference has on the forecasts

is included in the appropriate section. A summary of the TAF is presented in Figure 2-29.

Sources: 2016 (TAF): FAA 2017 TAF, 2016 (EWN): Airport Management and EWN ATCT

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Methods

Passenger enplanement forecasts look to historical trends, correlated growth indices, and FAA projections

to project enplanement levels at EWN. Over the past ten years, passenger enplanement levels at EWN

have grown at an annual average of 2.2 percent per year, compared to 3.2 percent for the state, and 0.9

percent nationwide. In this same time, the population of the New Bern MSA has remained level, and the

MSA GRP has grown at one percent. Enplanement growth at EWN has benefitted from the presence of

large corporations like BSH, Moen, and Hateras Yachts, nearby MCAS Cherry Point, and visitors passing

through the community on their way to the Carolina Outer Banks.

In recognition of this growth, it is prudent to assess the reasonability of past performance to predict future

projections. The disparity between EWN enplanement growth rates and growth rates of other indicators

(national enplanements, demographics, etc.) can be attributed to several reasons. These include how the

national market is larger and less sensitive to externalities causing large percentage change, and how military

travel remains steady even in the face of economic recessions that negatively impact business and leisure

travel.

Analysis shows that enplanement growth correlates strongly with growth in MSA population, total number

of jobs (employment), and national enplanements growth. One conclusion that can be drawn is that

enplanement levels at EWN are supported by the local economy (demand for air travel and

income/business to do so) and the frequency with which air carriers provide air service (supply of air

travel). Enplanement levels at EWN are particularly impacted by the proximity to RDU, which is not as

conveniently located to the New Bern MSA, but offers more non-stop service and more flight frequencies.

Four forecast methodologies are presented for passenger enplanements. Three are based on the Local

Growth Rate over the past ten years, the national growth rate for commuter airline passengers, population

and the incidence of flying (enplanements per capita), and a hybrid approach that applies the local growth

rate of two percent for the first five years, then introduces a regression model based on population growth

and national enplanement forecasts that has a CAGR of 3.6 percent. Passenger enplanement forecasts are

shown in Figure 2-30.

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Local/National GR = Local/National Growth Rate Population Forecast is based on 0.83 enplanements per capita, growing at a CAGR of 1.6 percent through 2036 to 1.14 enplanements per capita. Hybrid Forecast is based on National Growth Rate through 2026, then regression model described below from 2027 to 2036. Regression Statistics Hybrid Forecast: Adjusted R2 =0.87, Regression Equation = -551,296.009 + (3.357* MSA Population)+(1,550.575* National Commuter Passengers)

100 | P a g e

Passenger enplanement forecasts vary between 1.5 and 2.9 percent CAGR through the forecast period.

The selection of a preferred forecast is based on the model that best fits the known factors and assumptions

that drive passenger enplanements at EWN. These are categorized as factors that positively or negatively

influence air service, and as factors that are occurring now or factors that will occur in the future.

Considerations are shown in Figure 2-31.

• • •

•

•

•

•

•

• • •

• •

•

•

•

• • •

•

•

The considerations in Figure 2-31 illustrate the future uncertainties that could impact on passenger

enplanements at EWN. The DoD FY2017 ticket purchase agreement shows 9,204 tickets are expected for

departures from New Bern, which is nearly nine percent of total forecasted enplanements for FY2017.

During an interview with the former MCAS Cherry Point Base Commander, it was mentioned that the F-

35 program would likely bring civilian contractors to the area to maintain and supply the aircraft program.

While the threat of Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) exists for any military facility, it was expected

that if MCAS Cherry Point is successful in acquiring the F-35 program, it will be an unlikely candidate for

BRAC in the near future.

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The other key consideration for the passenger enplanement forecasts is the eventual switch from the CRJ-

200 and Dash-8 to the larger CRJ-700 and CRJ-900 aircraft. The passenger demand analysis shows that 38

percent of passengers in the EWN catchment area use other airports, largely due to availability of non-

stop flights and schedules. Larger aircraft could make it easier to find a seat at a desired flight time, but it

could also cause airlines to reduce frequency into EWN and still transport near the same number of

passengers while deploying equipment and crew to other markets.

Given the considerations in Figure 2-31, the Hybrid Forecast is the preferred forecast. This approach

shows slow, sustained growth in the near-term, followed by higher growth driven by local population and

the health of the airline industry. The Hybrid Forecast is 6.3 percent below the TAF in 2021 and 9.8

percent above the TAF in 2026.

The reason that the Hybrid Forecast is below the TAF in 2021 is because the TAF has a spike in

enplanements from 2016 to 2017 that then levels off at a CAGR of 1.7 percent beyond 2017. Local

stakeholders did not provide evidence that suggested a large spike in enplanements was imminent, and

most indicated that growth would be slow and steady over the near term, with a faster growth rate in the

out years as the Airport continued to market itself to the airlines and passengers.

Methods

Air cargo volumes at EWN have remained stable over the past ten years with a CAGR of 1.6 percent.

Regression analysis shows that the two socioeconomic variables that show the strongest historical

correlation with air cargo volume are MSA population and MSA gross regional product. Cargo volume

forecasts look at continuing the historical growth rate of 1.6 percent, and pairing growth in cargo with

growth of MSA gross regional product, and with both MSA population and gross regional product.

Annual air cargo capacity is roughly twice annual volume; however, peak shipping periods see aircraft

operating closer to capacity. The nature of air cargo operations at EWN are not expected to change.

Without tremendous growth, brought about by a new manufacturer or logistics company, air cargo

volumes will not require that FedEx increase aircraft size to handle capacity.

The TAF does not forecast cargo volume, and air cargo operations are included in air taxi operations

forecasts. Forecasts based on MSA population show a slight decline in air cargo. MSA Population and

MSA gross regional product forecast shows an increase, with a CAGR of 1.4 percent. The historical growth

rate forecast shows the largest growth with a CAGR of 1.6 percent. Air cargo forecasts are shown in

Figure 2-32.

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Both regression models exhibit low R2 values, indicating that variability in cargo volume is not well

explained by the regression equation. This is despite MSA population and MSA gross product showing

the strongest historical correlation with cargo volume. Given that cargo volume has remained stable, and

there are no near-term indicators that the New Bern MSA will experience a dramatic change in industry,

the growth rate forecast is the preferred cargo methodology. It is expected that the existing level cargo

operations will be able to handle the projected cargo volume.

GRP & Pop = Gross Regional Product and Population Regression Statistics Population: Adjusted R2 =0.31, Regression Equation = -1,037.254+(0.0244*MSA Population) GRP & Pop.: Adjusted R2 =0.35, Regression Equation = -1,027.724+(0.0119*MSA Population)+(0.26*MSA GRP)

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Methods

Commercial operations are reported on the TAF as either air carrier, or air taxi. Air carrier operations are

performed by passenger aircraft operating with more than 60 seats, and cargo aircraft with a payload

capacity above 18,000 pounds. Air taxi operations include passenger aircraft and aircraft operating for hire

with 60 or fewer seats and cargo aircraft with a capacity of 18,000 pounds or less. A summary of aircraft

types and their classifications are included in Figure 2-33. This table includes aircraft that are currently

operated by airlines serving EWN, but do not serve the Airport routinely. As the smaller aircraft are phased

out, it is possible that these larger aircraft could replace them.

Note: This list is not comprehensive. It is intended to illustrate what types of aircraft fit into the FAA aircraft operations categories.

Commercial aircraft operations are forecast in two ways. Air carrier and air taxi operations used by

scheduled and charter passenger and cargo airlines are driven by preferred enplanement and cargo

forecasts. Part 135 air taxi operations are driven by market forecasts. The components of the commercial

operations forecasts are brought together for purposes of comparison to the TAF.

Scheduled commercial departures are calculated based on four factors: the total number of passengers

expected to be transported in a year, the average number of seats on the aircraft operating at EWN, the

average load factor of the aircraft, and the fleet mix of air carrier and air taxi aircraft.

Passengers come from the preferred enplanement forecast in Section 4a. The passenger enplanement

forecast is demand based, therefore the commercial operations forecast assumes that airlines will match

the supply of seats available in the EWN market to the expected level of demand. As the airlines move

towards larger aircraft, passenger volumes may exceed predictions because more supply is available in the

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market, and fewer passengers would use other airports. Conversely, if airlines keep the number of seats

the same and reduce frequencies, the number of passengers could decline as there would be fewer flight

choices.

Average Seats are based on the type of aircraft that the airlines use. As airlines retire older aircraft with

fewer than 60 seats, such as the CRJ-200 and Dash 8-100/300 that are commonly deployed to EWN, these

aircraft will be replaced by larger aircraft with more seats. Typical regional jets in use and on order by the

airlines have a cap of 76 seats based on union agreements between the airlines and their mainline pilots.

Mainline aircraft, such as Boeing and Airbus narrow bodies, can have up to 200 seats. Although these

aircraft are not expected to regularly operate at EWN, they may be used for charter operations, or if a

particular route or flight time has a high level of demand.

Average load factors can be estimated based on trends observed over the past five years at EWN and

nationwide. The target is to be no lower than 70 percent to sustain air service. Load factors have

traditionally been in the mid-70s over the past five years. Average load factors consider the entire year. It

is expected that peak periods will see load factors closer to 100 percent, and slow periods will see load

factors below the average.

Fleet Mix is based on the expected rate of retirement for air taxi aircraft. These aircraft are largely expected

to leave service within the next ten years, and their numbers will gradually reduce across the system over

time. As the smaller aircraft are phased out, they will be replaced by larger air carrier aircraft. When this

happens at EWN, the onus will be on the community to support the service and keep average yield and

load factors at a high enough level so that the airlines do not reduce frequency. Scheduled commercial

passenger operations forecasts are shown in Figure 2-34.

96 80% 70 3,176 76% 49 9.0 54 73% 68 3,447 72% 49 9.6 17 83% 67 3,538 72% 49 9.7 11 76% 67 3,069 78% 49 8.4 27 65% 68 2,636 85% 49 7.3 96 62% 79 2,577 77% 50 7.3

Dep. = Departures (Scheduled Commercial Operations are two times the number of departures) Avg. LF = Average Load Factor, Number of Passengers / Number of Available Seats Seats/Dep. = Average number of seats per departure. Dep. Day = Average number of departures per day. Total Annual Departures / 365

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The transition from air taxi aircraft to air carrier aircraft for scheduled commercial operations will cause

considerable air carrier operation growth at EWN. When broken down, scheduled passenger air taxi

operations will decline to zero as the aircraft are retired, cargo operations will remain level, and Part 135

operations will eventually return to their pre-recession levels of over 1,000 flights per year. A summary of

commercial operations is shown in Figure 2-35.

The 2017 TAF has started to reflect the shift from air taxi to air carrier operations with strong growth in

air carrier numbers, but it has not decreased the number of air taxi operations to address the transition.

Therefore, the TAF projections for commercial activity at EWN are higher than forecasted. It is expected

that subsequent revisions to the TAF will address this inconsistency. Commercial operations forecasts are

8.3 percent below the TAF in 2021 and 14.8 percent below the TAF in 2026.

While these percentages may seem large, the difference amounts to less than two flights per day, likely on

a Part 135 aircraft. TAF enplanement projections for EWN do not support such high operations numbers

for scheduled service, and cargo operators have indicated that the existing frequency is sufficient for their

expected needs.

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General aviation forecasts consider itinerant and local operations, and based aircraft. General aviation is

a broad category that includes recreational flying, business aviation, flight instruction, and emergency

services. Put another way, general aviation is everything that is not commercial or military. Section 5 is

organized by itinerant operations forecasts, local operations forecasts, and based aircraft forecasts. A

summary is included in Figure 2-36.

CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate, GA = General Aviation

Methods

Itinerant general aviation operations at EWN have declined by 2,000 annual operations over the past ten

years with a CAGR of -1.6 percent; however, operations totals have shown growth since the 2009 recession

with a CAGR of 1.8 percent over the past five years. Regression analysis shows that the itinerant operations

have shown strongest historical correlation with national itinerant general aviation operations, with a

correlation coefficient of 0.83. Itinerant operations did not show strong correlation with local

socioeconomic factors like MSA population, Income, GRP, or Retail Sales.

Forecast methods look at continuing the post-recession recovery and using the five-year historical CAGR,

using the more conservative national itinerant general aviation operations CAGR of 0.3 percent, and a

hybrid approach that blends the national growth rate over the first five years of the forecast then using a

ratio of operations per based aircraft (OPBA) from the preferred based aircraft forecast beyond five years.

Itinerant General Aviation Operations forecasts are shown in Figure 2-37.

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Local/National GR = Local/National Growth Rate Hybrid = National GR growth rate of 0.3 percent from 2016 to 2018, followed by an OPBA growth rate of 1.3 percent to 1.4 percent from 2029 to 2036 CAGR: Compound Average Growth Rate

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Itinerant GA operations have been highly volatile over the past ten years, responding to economic pressure

and following similar trends to the rest of the nation. TAF forecasts show a slight growth over the next 20

years at a CAGR of 0.4 percent. Operations have not returned to pre-recession levels which suggests that

as industry continues to recover and businesses look to travel more, general aviation will meet the needs

of some travelers.

The National Growth Rate provides a conservative estimate for near term growth, and operations at EWN

have historically performed similarly to national trends. A point of concern with the National Growth Rate

forecast is that over the past three years, EWN has seen operations growth occur at a faster rate than the

national level, and as shown in Figure 2-19 [Relative Change in Itinerant GA Ops], EWN operations

are proportionally closer to pre-recession levels than the U.S. as a whole. For these reasons, the National

Growth Rate forecast is not preferred on its own, but instead incorporated into the Hybrid Approach that

addresses upward potential.

The local growth rate forecast provides insight into the changing trends at EWN; however, it does not tell

the entire story due to the forecasted change in the based aircraft fleet, discussed in Section 2.12. For this

reason, the local growth rate methods are merged with an operations per based aircraft method described

in the Hybrid Forecast, below.

The hybrid approach provides a more stable near-term growth rate, which is in line with the slow return

to growth exhibited by the national economy. It reflects the upward potential exhibited by the past three

years of growth in the later years of the forecast, and since it is based on operations per based aircraft

beyond two years, it includes factors that will influence growth in general aviation at EWN.

The preferred Hybrid Forecast is within 0.6 percent below the TAF in 2021, and within 8.0 percent of the

TAF in 2026.

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Methods

Local general aviation operations at EWN have declined by 5,000 annual operations over the past ten years

with a CAGR of -3.8 percent; however, operations totals have shown growth since the 2009 recession with

a CAGR of 1.3 percent. A key reason for this is growth in flight training as the flight school gained

certification and students coming from the military could use the G.I. Bill to fund their education.

Regression analysis shows that the itinerant operations have performed similarly to national local general

aviation operations, with a correlation coefficient of 0.74. Local operations did not show strong correlation

with local socioeconomic factors like MSA population, Income, GRP, or Retail Sales. Forecast methods

look at continuing the post-recession recovery and using the five-year historical CAGR, using the more

conservative national local general aviation operations CAGR of 0.2 percent, and an approach that uses a

ratio of operations per based aircraft (OPBA) from the preferred based aircraft forecast. Local General

Aviation Operations forecasts are shown in Figure 2-38.

OPBA decreased from 412 in 2006 to 294 in 2011; however, the metric has exhibited some recovery over

the past five years, climbing to 310 in 2016. Tenant estimates suggest that 75 percent of local operations

at EWN are a result of flight training activity, and much of the growth in OBPA is expected to be tied to

this. Flight school records for hours flown support this claim. The flight school expects to do similar

business in FY2017 as they did in FY2016. Continued business from military personnel and demand for

pilots in the airline industry will support growth in flight training operations at EWN. The issue with the

OPBA methodology is that ten percent of the based aircraft (considering nine flight training aircraft) are

driving 80 percent of the local operations. For this reason, the OPBA is not preferred as a stand-alone

methodology.

The other side of the local operations equation is the 25 percent of operations that come from recreational

tenants. It is expected that if the Airport can attract additional tenants, particularly in the growing light

sport and experimental aircraft markets, then local operations will increase. For this reason, the local

growth rate is the preferred local operations forecast as is includes a comprehensive picture of flight

training and recreational activity. This methodology produces slightly lower operations numbers than the

OPBA forecast, but shows a growth trend which is expected to be reasonable through strong flight training

activity and the addition of light sport and experimental aircraft to the based aircraft fleet over the years.

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The preferred forecast is 2.5 percent below the TAF in 2021 and 3.2 percent above the TAF in 2026. Like

the TAF for itinerant GA operations, the TAF for local GA operations show a large spike from 2016 to

2017, followed by relatively flat growth after. This spike causes the forecast to be below the TAF in the

first five years and above it for the remaining forecast years.

Local/National GR = Local/National Growth Rate OPBA: Operations per Based Aircraft CAGR: Compound Average Growth Rate

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Methods

Based aircraft at EWN have remained constant over the past ten years with a CAGR of 0.2 percent. Airport

records in 2016 are at the high end of the ten year history with 83, and 2012/2013 were the low end with

79. The Airport currently has a waiting list for hangar space with ten aircraft on it. These aircraft are

primarily single engine piston aircraft.

Total based aircraft have shown strongest historical correlation with U.S. Gross Domestic Product, with

a correlation coefficient of 0.47 which is a weak positive correlation. On an individual basis, SEP aircraft

showed strong correlation with National Itinerant Operations (0.80), jets showed strong correlation with

MSA Population (0.81), MSA Employment (0.80), and MSA Gross Regional Product (0.85), and Exp.

aircraft showed strong correlation with U.S. Gross Domestic Product (0.86). MEP and helicopters did not

exhibit strong correlation with any of the variables considered.

Forecast methods look at continuing the ten-year historical CAGR for EWN, using the more conservative

national CAGR of -0.4 percent, regression forecasts based on U.S. GDP, and a hybrid approach that used

regression analysis for Jet, and Exp. aircraft, and national growth rates for SEP, MEP, and helicopters.

Based aircraft forecasts are shown in Figure 2-39.

The 2016 TAF projections do not match 2016 airport management records by one aircraft, or 1.2 percent

of the total. This difference is not significant enough to require an adjusted TAF. The 2016 TAF projects

no growth over the 20-year period, which would ordinarily cause concern; however, based aircraft levels

at EWN have trended nearly flat over the last ten and five year periods.

The National Growth Rate methodology applies growth rates from the FAA Aerospace Forecast,

referenced in Table 2-25 to the aircraft types. The Aerospace Forecast expects that the nationwide fleet

will decline by an average of 0.3 percent per year because the most common aircraft type, SEP, will decline

by an average of 1.1 percent per year. SEP are the most common aircraft type at EWN, and the National

Growth Trends forecast has a net loss of ten SEP aircraft, or 12 percent of the total fleet over the next 20

years. Growth rates for Jet and Exp. aircraft are positive, but these aircraft make a comparatively small

part of the fleet, therefore a gain of only four aircraft is expected (two from each category). This forecast

does not include any local variables and while the findings are supported by nationwide trends and the

historical based aircraft levels at EWN, other methodologies incorporate local variables that help better

explain based aircraft changes. The National Growth Rate forecast is not preferred.

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2017 TAF uses airport based aircraft records (83) instead of 2017 TAF (86). Local/National GR = Local/National Growth Rate GDP: Gross Domestic Product CAGR: Compound Average Growth Rate Regression Statistics GDP: Adjusted R2 =0.13, Regression Equation = 74.95+(0.0004*GDP) Hybrid: SEP: Adjusted R2=0.59, Regression Equation=64.52+(0.0006*National Itinerant Operations) Jet: Adjusted R2=0.75, Regression Equation=-9.07+(-3.9E-05*MSA Population)+(2.4E-03*MSA GRP)+(2.7E-05*MSA Employment) Exp: Adjusted R2=0.74, Regression Equation=-9.03+(0.0006*Gross Domestic Product)

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The GDP regression forecasts has a 0.2 percent CAGR, and produces similar results to the Hybrid

Forecast. Both forecasts project that economic improvement, either in the EWN MSA or the U.S. as a

whole, will lead to growth in aircraft ownership. Key differences do exist between the two. The Hybrid

Forecast looks at aircraft by type, instead of based aircraft as a total. This allows it to be sensitive to

underlying growth patterns. Further, the Hybrid Forecast does not rely on only one socioeconomic metric

to base its projections; this providing a more diverse perspective on the local economy. Finally, while GDP

exhibited the strongest correlation to total based aircraft relative to the others considered; the correlation

can be described as “weak-positive” at best. Correlation between the variables used in the regression

analyses in the Hybrid Forecast exhibited must stronger correlation, and the resulting R2 values illustrate

that they produce a better model. Unfortunately, the methodology is limited by the available hangar space

at EWN, which has capped growth. If the Airport is successful in attracting a hangar developer, it is

expected that based aircraft numbers will exceed these forecasts; therefore, they are not preferred.

The Local Growth Rate forecast produced high growth compared to other methods. This forecast is driven

by stable SEP and growth in Jet, Experimental, and Helicopter aircraft. This forecast reflects trends in

EWN over the last ten years, and given the stable nature of GA and the hangar waiting list at the Airport,

this trend is expected to continue. Tenants have suggested that there is a shortage of available hangar space

at EWN, but if this were to be addressed through hangar development, then more aircraft would be based

at the Airport. The Local Growth Rate Forecast is preferred.

Due to the flatness of the TAF, and the restructuring on the fleet mix in the Local Growth Forecast,

projections are above the TAF by 1.2 percent (or one based aircraft) in the five-year period, and above the

TAF by 2.4 percent (or two based aircraft) in the ten-year period. A breakdown of the Local Growth

Forecast by aircraft type is shown in Figure 2-40.

CAGR = Compound Average Growth Rate Jet includes turbo jet and turbo prop aircraft

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Peak forecasts are used to calculate space requirements and the critical aircraft is used to determine

setbacks, clear areas, and pavement dimensions. Each of these variables will be used in the facility

requirements and development alternatives chapters, and the basis for improvements that they justify

comes from the forecasts.

Peak forecasts estimate when certain airport facilities will be at their busiest, and is used to assess level of

service of airfield and terminal facilities, and to scale improvement projects. Improvement projects are not

typically designed for the busiest hour of the busiest day of the year, because such a design would lead to

over-building. Instead, peak forecasts look at a typical busy period throughout the year. Forecasts base

expected peaking on historical records, therefore it is essential that peak forecasts be reevaluated if a change

in user or aircraft type occurs. Peak forecasts are presented in Figure 2-41.

Peak month for enplanements and operations is July, based on T-100 data for passengers and FAA OPSNET data for operations. Peak day is based on airline schedules for July for enplanements, and FAA OPSNET daily activity records for operations. Peak hour is based on airline schedules for enplanements, and an estimate provided by ATCT staff for operations.

Annual totals have a factor applied to them that corresponds to the historical peak period. Operations

factors are based on ATCT and FAA OPSNET records, and enplanement factors are based on T-100

monthly passenger data, and flight schedules. The month, day, and hour factors are based on the

percentage of enplanements and operations that have occurred on the busiest month of the year, day of

the week, and time of day, respectively. Annual total multiplied by peak month percentage equals peak

month, peak month multiplied by peak day percentage equals peak day, and peak hour percentage

multiplied by peak day percentage equals peak hour.

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The critical aircraft is the most demanding type, or group of aircraft with similar characteristics, to operate

over 500 times per year at an airport. Operations by aircraft type comes from FAA Traffic Flow

Management System Counts (TFMSC), and shows that scheduled commercial and freight aircraft are the

most demanding to operate over 500 times per year at EWN. TFMSC only captures aircraft that file flight

plans, therefore, flight training aircraft that operate more frequently than those listed below are not

represented. Flight training aircraft are smaller and slower than the scheduled commercial aircraft in the

chart below, therefore, their absence from the TFMSC rankings has no bearing on the critical aircraft

selection.

Critical aircraft are categorized by aircraft approach category (AAC) and aircraft design group (ADG).

Source: TFMSC for FY2016 Bombardier CRJ-700 and CRJ-900 included because airlines are transitioning to these aircraft and away from Dash 8-300, Dash 8-100, and CRJ-200.

Based on TFMSC data, the most demanding aircraft approach category is C and the most demanding

design group is III. Although there are no C-III aircraft that operate over 500 times per year at EWN, the

fleet mix, with AAC C and ADG III aircraft both operating over 2,000 times per year supports planning

facilities to meet C-III standards.

It is expected that the future critical aircraft will be whatever jet replaces the Dash-8 and CRJ-200 aircraft.

American has begun using CRJ-700s, which has an ARC of C-II. FedEx has indicated that the ATR-42

will continue to serve EWN for the time being, which is an ADG III aircraft. This supports continuing to

plan for AAC C and ADG III aircraft at EWN. C-III includes other common passenger aircraft, including

some narrow body jets like the Airbus A320 and the smaller variants of the Boeing 737.

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The aviation activity forecasts project slow sustained growth in aviation activity at EWN over the first ten

years, followed by a period of higher growth over the second ten years. This growth is driven by a

strengthening local economy, including boosts in the health care sector, stable jobs in military and civilian

government employment, and immigration of working-age citizens to the MSA. The MSA has

demonstrated that it has the true market to support larger aircraft if flight frequencies are convenient and

fares are competitive, and the new larger aircraft may accelerate passenger enplanement growth if the

airlines maintain existing levels of service, or make slight improvements. The FAA has standardized forms

for forecast summary and TAF comparison, which are presented in Figure 2-43 and Figure 2-44.

AIRPORT NAME: Coastal Carolina Regional Airport

Airport AF/TAF

Year Forecast TAF (% Difference)

Passenger Enplanements

Base yr. 2016 105,440 105,440 0.0%

Base yr. + 5yrs. 2021 116,400 124,226 -6.3%

Base yr. + 10yrs. 2026 139,200 131,382 6.0%

Base yr. + 15yrs. 2031 166,400 141,009 18.0%

Base yr. + 20 yrs. 2036 198,900 152,037 30.8%

Commercial Operations

Base yr. 2016 6,466 6,466 0.0%

Base yr. + 5yrs. 2021 7,600 8,288 -8.3%

Base yr. + 10yrs. 2026 7,800 9,154 -14.8%

Base yr. + 15yrs. 2031 8,200 9,809 -16.4%

Base yr. + 20 yrs. 2036 9,200 10,548 -12.8%

Total Operations

Base yr. 2016 33,676 33,676 0.0%

Base yr. + 5yrs. 2021 36,700 37,588 -2.4%

Base yr. + 10yrs. 2026 38,900 38,544 0.9%

Base yr. + 15yrs. 2031 41,800 39,289 6.4%

Base yr. + 20 yrs. 2036 46,100 40,118 14.9%

NOTES: TAF data is on a U.S. Government fiscal year basis (October through September).

AF/TAF (% Difference) column has embedded formulas.

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Figure 2-44: EWN Forecast Summary

Template for Summarizing and Documenting Airport Planning Forecasts

A. Forecast Levels and Growth Rates

AIRPORT NAME: Coastal Carolina Regional Airport Specify base year: 2016

Average Annual Compound Growth Rates

Base Yr. Level Base Yr. + 1yr. Base Yr. + 5yrs. Base Yr. + 10yrs. Base Yr. + 15yrs. Base Yr. + 20yrs. Base yr. to +1 Base yr. to +5 Base yr. to +10 Base yr. to +15 Base yr. to +20

Passenger Enplanements

Air Carrier 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Commuter 105,440 107,500 116,400 139,200 166,400 198,900 2.0% 2.0% 2.8% 3.1% 3.2%

TOTAL 105,440 107,500 116,400 139,200 166,400 198,900 2.0% 2.0% 2.8% 3.1% 3.2%

Operations

Itinerant

Air carrier 192 1,500 4,000 5,600 6,300 7,000 681.3% 83.5% 40.1% 26.2% 19.7%

Commuter/air taxi 6,274 5,700 3,600 2,200 1,900 2,200 -9.1% -10.5% -9.9% -7.7% -5.1%

Total Commercial Operations 6,466 7,200 7,600 7,800 8,200 9,200 11.4% 3.3% 1.9% 1.6% 1.8%

General aviation 15,045 15,100 16,200 17,500 19,200 21,600 0.4% 1.5% 1.5% 1.6% 1.8%

Military 558 600 600 600 600 600 7.5% 1.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4%

Local

General aviation 10,693 10,800 11,400 12,100 12,900 13,800 1.0% 1.3% 1.2% 1.3% 1.3%

Military 914 900 900 900 900 900 -1.5% -0.3% -0.2% -0.1% -0.1%

TOTAL OPERATIONS 33,676 34,600 36,700 38,900 41,800 46,100 2.7% 1.7% 1.5% 1.5% 1.6%

Instrument Operations 10,298 11,080 11,774 12,305 13,115 14,683 7.6% 2.7% 1.8% 1.6% 1.8%

Peak Hour Operations 16 16 17 18 19 21 2.8% 1.7% 1.5% 1.5% 1.6%

Cargo/mail (enplaned+deplaned tons) 2,034 2,100 2,200 2,400 2,600 2,800 3.3% 1.6% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6%

Based Aircraft

Single Engine (Nonjet) 72 71 68 67 65 65 -1.4% -1.1% -0.7% -0.7% -0.5%

Multi Engine (Nonjet) 3 3 3 3 3 3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Jet Engine 3 3 5 6 9 11 0.0% 10.8% 7.2% 7.6% 6.7%

Helicopter 2 2 3 3 5 7 0.0% 8.4% 4.1% 6.3% 6.5%

Other 3 4 5 6 6 8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0%

TOTAL 83 83 84 85 88 94 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6%

B. Operational Factors

Base Yr. Level Base Yr. + 1yr. Base Yr. + 5yrs. Base Yr. + 10yrs. Base Yr. + 15yrs. Base Yr. + 15yrs.

Average aircraft size (seats)

Air carrier 79.0 68.0 70.0 70.0 75.0 76.0

Commuter 49.8 50.0 48.0 50.0 0.0 0.0

Average enplaning load factor

Air carrier 61.9% 70.0% 70.0% 72.5% 75.0% 79.0%

Commuter 77.1% 75.0% 75.0% 75.0% 0.0% 0.0%

GA operations per based aircraft 310 312 329 348 365 377