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Predicting the MarketsChapter 15 Charts:Predicting Stocks
Yardeni Research, Inc.
July 27, 2021
Dr. Edward YardeniChief Investment Strategist
Mali QuintanaSenior Economist
Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents
July 27, 2021 / Chapter 15 Charts: Predicting Stocks www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Predicting Stocks 1-31
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.5
5.5
10.5
15.5
20.5
25.530.535.540.5
.5
5.5
10.5
15.5
20.5
25.530.535.540.5
1000(10/11/82)
5000(11/21/95)
10000(3/29/99)
15000(5/7/13)
20000(1/25/17)DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS AVERAGE: MILESTONES
(thousands, weekly, ratio scale)7/23
Source: The Wall Street Journal.
yardeni.com
Figure 1.
19281933
19381943
19481953
19581963
19681973
19781983
19881993
19982003
20082013
2018
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
37.1
46.6
41.4
27.9
25.2
12.4
19.4
13.8
30.7
0.0
10.3
21.8
16.5
11.8
45.0
26.4
2.6
38.1
8.5
23.1
18.9
13.0
9.1
20.1
7.7
0.1
10.8 15
.6
31.5
19.1
1.1
12.3
25.8
14.8 17
.31.
426
.314
.62.
012
.427
.326
.34.
5 7.1
34.1
20.3
31.0
26.7
19.5
26.4
9.0
3.0
13.6
3.5
23.5
12.8
13.4
29.6
11.4
9.5
19.4
-11.
9-2
8.5
-47.
1-1
5.1
-5.9
-38.
6-5
.5-1
5.3
-17.
9 -11.
9-0
.7
-6.6
-14.
3
-3.0
-11.
8
-13.
1
-11.
4
-17.
4-2
9.7
-11.
5
-9.7 -6
.6 -1.5
-10.
1-1
3.0
-23.
4
-38.
5
0.0
-0.7
-6.2
S&P 500 ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGES: 1928-2017*
Source: Standard & Poor’s and Haver Analytics.* Annual percent changes based on year-end values except 1928, which uses January 3, 1928 for year-end 1927.
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Figure 2.
Predicting Stocks
Page 1 / July 27, 2021 / Chapter 15 Charts: Predicting Stocks www.yardeni.com
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78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 2450
500
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2750
3200
3650
4100
4550
50
500
950
1400
1850
2300
2750
3200
3650
4100
4550
x5
x10
x15
x20
x25
S&P 500, FORWARD EARNINGS, and VALUATION(monthly) Jun
Blue Angels: S&P 500ActualImplied*
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.* Implied price index calculated using forward earnings times forward P/Es. Monthly data start September 1978.
Source: Standard & Poor’s and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
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Figure 3.
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24200
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800
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1200
1400
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2000
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3200
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2400
2600
2800
3000
3200
3400
3600
3800
4000
4200
4400
x10
x12
x14
x16
x18
x20S&P 500, FORWARD EARNINGS, and VALUATION(weekly)
Actual 07/27/21Implied* 07/22/21
* Implied price index calculated using forward earnings times forward P/Es. Weekly data start March 1994.
Blue Angels: S&P 500
Source: Standard & Poor’s and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
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Figure 4.
Predicting Stocks
Page 2 / July 27, 2021 / Chapter 15 Charts: Predicting Stocks www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
***** Chart Not Available *****
Task: PTMSP5REPTRAILFORPE1
Invalid calculation element [SP5COM]
07-27-2021 - 16:21:31
Figure 5.
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 242
32
62
92
122
152182212
2
32
62
92
122
152182212
P T P T P T PT P T PT PT P T
S&P 500 Reported Trailing Earnings1960-1978, quarterly, ratio scale
Jun
S&P 500 Forward Earnings 1979-present, monthly
Note: Blue shaded areas denote periods of monetary easing between cyclical peaks and troughs in the federal funds rate. Red shaded areas denotemonetary tightening periods. Business cycle peaks (P) and troughs (T) according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor’s.
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Figure 6.
Predicting Stocks
Page 3 / July 27, 2021 / Chapter 15 Charts: Predicting Stocks www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 2410
60
110
160
210
260
310
10
60
110
160
210
260
310
May
S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS WITH 5%-7% CAGR PATHS(base period Dec 1978 = 13.07, ratio scale)
5%
6%
7%
yardeni.com
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Figure 7.
35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25.1
20.1
40.1
60.180.1100.1
.1
20.1
40.1
60.180.1
100.1
S&P 500 REPORTED EARNINGS PER SHAREWITH 5%-7% CAGR GROWTH PATHS*
(dollars, Q4-1934 = 0.18, ratio scale) Q1
5%
6%
7%
* Q4-2008 not shown because of large negative value.Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Standard & Poor’s.
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Figure 8.
Predicting Stocks
Page 4 / July 27, 2021 / Chapter 15 Charts: Predicting Stocks www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 254
2004
4004
6004800410004
4
2004
4004
60048004
10004
Jun
S&P 500 INDEX* WITH 4%-7% CAGR PATHS(base period Dec 1920 = 7.11, ratio scale)
4%
5%
6%
7%
yardeni.com
* S&P 500 stock price index is average monthly price.Source: Standard & Poor’s.
Figure 9.
1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 20259
40009
80009120009160009200009
9
40009
80009120009160009200009
Q2
Q2
S&P 500 TOTAL RETURN INDEX WITH 6%-11% CAGR PATHS(base period Dec 1935 = 14.96, ratio scale)
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
S&P 500Total Return Index*Total Return Index/CPI**
yardeni.com
* Includes reinvested dividends.** Using last month of quarter CPI. Compounded monthly using base value.
Source: Standard & Poor’s.
Figure 10.
Predicting Stocks
Page 5 / July 27, 2021 / Chapter 15 Charts: Predicting Stocks www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 01 05 09 13 17 21 252
802
1602
2402320240024802
2
802
1602
2402320240024802
T PT PT P T PT PT PT PT PT PT PT P T PTP T PT PT P T
S&P 500 BULL & BEAR MARKETS& THE BUSINESS CYCLE
(monthly, ratio scale)
Jun
Note: Shaded green areas denote S&P 500 bull markets, while red areas are bear market declines of 20% or more.Business cycle peaks (P) and troughs (T) according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Standard & Poor’s.
yardeni.com
Figure 11.
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2440
590
1140
1690
2240
27903340389044404990
40
590
1140
1690
2240
27903340389044404990
P T P T P T PT P T PT PT P T
S&P 500 & MONETARY POLICY CYCLE(monthly, ratio scale)
Jun
Note: Blue shaded areas denote periods of monetary easing between cyclical peaks and troughs in the federal funds rate. Red shaded areas denotemonetary tightening periods. Business cycle peaks (P) and troughs (T) according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Standard & Poor’s.
yardeni.com
Figure 12.
Predicting Stocks
Page 6 / July 27, 2021 / Chapter 15 Charts: Predicting Stocks www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 2380
360
640
920
1200
1480
17602040232026002880
80
360
640
920
1200
1480
17602040232026002880
7/27S&P 500 INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY STOCK PRICE INDEX*
yardeni.com
200-day moving average.* Ratio scale.
Source: Standard & Poor’s.
Figure 13.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 2360
200
340
480
620
760
60
200
340
480
620
760
7/27
S&P 500 FINANCIALS STOCK PRICE INDEX*
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200-day moving average.* Ratio scale.
Source: Standard & Poor’s.
Figure 14.
Predicting Stocks
Page 7 / July 27, 2021 / Chapter 15 Charts: Predicting Stocks www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022500
950
1400
1850
2300
2750
3200
3650
4100
4550
500
950
1400
1850
2300
2750
3200
3650
4100
4550
S&P 500 BULL & BEAR MARKETS & CORRECTIONS: 2008-2017(ratio scale)
7/27
-56.8% (517)
-16.0% (70)
-19.4% (157)
-9.8% (28)
-9.9% (60)
-7.7% (62)
-5.8% (34)
-5.8% (19)
-6.9% (37)
-12.4% (96)
-13.3% (100)
Note: Corrections are declines of 10% or more, while minor ones are 5%-10% (all in blue shades). Bear markets are declines of 20% or more(in red shades). Number of calendar days in parentheses.
200-day moving average.
Source: Standard & Poor’s.
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Figure 15.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 2395
195
295
395
495
595
695
795
95
195
295
395
495
595
695
795
7/27
S&P 500 ENERGY STOCK PRICE INDEX*
yardeni.com
200-day moving average.* Ratio scale.
Source: Standard & Poor’s.
Figure 16.
Predicting Stocks
Page 8 / July 27, 2021 / Chapter 15 Charts: Predicting Stocks www.yardeni.com
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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 230
25
50
75
0
25
50
75
Q1
7/27
7/26
Q1
US CORPORATE EQUITY ISSUES AT MARKET VALUE(trillion dollars, nsa)
Equites at Market Value
S&P 1500Wilshire 5000
S&P 500S&P 400 + S&P 600
Total IssuesTotal Ex Foreign Issues*
* Excludes holdings of foreign corporate equities, investment fund shares, and American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) by US residents.Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States, Dow Jones, and Standard & Poors.
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Figure 17.
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23150
550
950
1350
1750
2150
255029503350375041504550
150
550
950
1350
1750
2150
255029503350375041504550
6/16S&P 500/400/600 STOCK PRICE INDEXES(daily, ratio scale)
S&P 500 LargeCapS&P 400 MidCapS&P 600 SmallCap
Source: Standard & Poor’s.
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Figure 18.
Predicting Stocks
Page 9 / July 27, 2021 / Chapter 15 Charts: Predicting Stocks www.yardeni.com
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1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800S&P 500 SECTORS PRICE INDEXES DURING BULL MARKET OF 1990s(percent change since October 11, 1990)
Energy (134.1)
Materials (133.3)
Industrials (357.4)
Consumer Staples (175.0)
Health Care (337.5)Financials (608.2)
Information Technology (1697.2)
Telecommunications Services (299.7)
Consumer Discretionary (444.9)
Utilities (63.6)
Source: Standard & Poor’s.
yardeni.com
Figure 19.
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250S&P 500 SECTORS PRICE INDEXES DURING BULL MARKET OF 2002-2007(percent change since October 9, 2002)
Energy (242.2)
Materials (162.3)
Industrials (125.9)
Consumer Staples (40.4)
Health Care (41.4)Financials (92.6)
Information Technology (145.4)
Telecommunications Services (117.8)
Consumer Discretionary (78.3)
Utilities (172.1)
Source: Standard & Poor’s.
yardeni.com
Figure 20.
Predicting Stocks
Page 10 / July 27, 2021 / Chapter 15 Charts: Predicting Stocks www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-50
50
150
250
350
450
550
650
750
850
950
1050
1150
1250
-50
50
150
250
350
450
550
650
750
850
950
1050
1150
1250S&P 500 SECTORS PRICE INDEXES DURING BULL MARKET OF 2009-?(percent change since March 9, 2009)
Consumer Discretionary (1069.8)Consumer Staples (270.4)Energy (19.8)Financials (623.6)Health Care (503.6)Industrials (555.7)Information Technology (1245.3)
Latest data thru: 07/27/21
Telecommunications Services (212.1)
Source: Standard & Poor’s.
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Figure 21.
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
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300
320
340
360
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400
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
360
380
400MSCI SHARE PRICE INDEXES DURING BULL MARKET OF 2003-2007(percent change in US dollars since October 9, 2002)
UK (130.7)
EMU** (223.7)EM* (386.0)
Japan (113.6)
US (103.8)
* EM = Emerging Markets. ** EMU = European Monetary Union.Source: MSCI.
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Figure 22.
Predicting Stocks
Page 11 / July 27, 2021 / Chapter 15 Charts: Predicting Stocks www.yardeni.com
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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-250255075100125150175200225250275300325350375400425450475500525550575600
-250
255075
100125150175200225250275300325350375400425450475500525550575600
MSCI SHARE PRICE INDEXES DURING BULL MARKET OF 2009-?(percent change in US dollars since March 9, 2009)
UK (89.8)
EMU** (149.3)EM* (163.8)
Japan (145.2)
US (567.2)
Latest data thru: 07/26/21
* EM = Emerging Markets. ** EMU = European Monetary Union.Source: MSCI.
yardeni.com
Figure 23.
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 20233.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5 7/26
7/26
RELATIVE GLOBAL PERFORMANCE OF US MSCI:US MSCI (US$) DIVIDED BY ALL COUNTRY WORLD EX US MSCI(in both US$ and in local currencies, daily)
MSCI US / ACW ex-USIn dollarsIn local currencies
Source: MSCI.
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Figure 24.
Predicting Stocks
Page 12 / July 27, 2021 / Chapter 15 Charts: Predicting Stocks www.yardeni.com
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85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 235
10
15
20
25
30
35
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Jun
MARKET CAP & EARNINGS SHARES:S&P 500 INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY(monthly)
S&P 500 Information TechnologyCapitalization ShareEarnings Share*
* Using consensus year-ahead forward earnings forecasts.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
yardeni.com
Figure 25.
85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 235
10
15
20
25
30
5
10
15
20
25
30
May
MARKET CAP & EARNINGS SHARES:S&P 500 FINANCIALS(monthly)
S&P 500 FinancialsCapitalization ShareEarnings Share*
* Using consensus year-ahead forward earnings forecasts.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
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Figure 26.
Predicting Stocks
Page 13 / July 27, 2021 / Chapter 15 Charts: Predicting Stocks www.yardeni.com
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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Q1
M&A ACTIVITY: UNITED STATES*(billion US dollars, quarterly)
Latest (229.6)
* Excludes spinoffs.Source: Dealogic.
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Figure 27.
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 250
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
NEW US CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUES: ALL CORPORATIONS(billion dollars, 12-month sum)
May
Note: Shaded green areas denote S&P 500 bull markets, while red areas are bear market declines of 20% or more.Source: Federal Reserve Board.
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Figure 28.
Predicting Stocks
Page 14 / July 27, 2021 / Chapter 15 Charts: Predicting Stocks www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 240
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
NEW US CORPORATE EQUITY ISSUES: NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS(billion dollars, 12-month sum) May
Note: Shaded green areas denote S&P 500 bull markets, while red areas are bear market declines of 20% or more.Source: Federal Reserve Board.
yardeni.com
Figure 29.
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 230
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
NEW US CORPORATE EQUITY ISSUES: FINANCIAL CORPORATIONS(billion dollars, 12-month sum)
May
Note: Shaded green areas denote S&P 500 bull markets, while red areas are bear market declines of 20% or more.Source: Federal Reserve Board.
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Figure 30.
Predicting Stocks
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-900
-700
-500
-300
-100
100
300
500
-900
-700
-500
-300
-100
100
300
500
Q1
NET ISSUANCE OF EQUITIES: ALL CORPORATIONS(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)
TotalEx ETFs*
* Excluding net issuance of equities by all ETFs including those investing in debt.Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States Table F.223 line 1 minus line 8.
yardeni.com
Figure 31.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 20240
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Q1
NET ISSUANCE OF EQUITIES: ETFs(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)
ETFs
Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States.
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Figure 32.
Predicting Stocks
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
Q1
NET ISSUANCE OF EQUITIES: NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)
Nonfinancial
Source: Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States Table F.223 line 2.
yardeni.com
Figure 33.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 20230
200
400
600
800
1000
0
200
400
600
800
1000
Q1
S&P 500 SHARE BUYBACKS(billion dollars, annualized)
Share Buybacks
Source: Standard & Poor’s.
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Figure 34.
Predicting Stocks
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
Q1
NET ISSUANCE OF EQUITIES: DOMESTIC FINANCIAL CORPORATIONS(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)
Domestic FinancialsEx ETFs
Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States Table F.223 line 3 minus line 8.
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Figure 35.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
Q1
NET ISSUANCE OF EQUITIES: REST OF WORLD*(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)
* Net purchases of foreign corporate equities and investment fund shares by US residents; includes American Depositary Receipts (ADRs).Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States Table F.223 line 14.
yardeni.com
Figure 36.
Predicting Stocks
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90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23-500
-300
-100
100
300
500
-500
-300
-100
100
300
500
Q1
CORPORATE EQUITIES NET PURCHASES (INCLUDING ETF SHARES): INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)
Institutional Investors*
* Includes property-casualty insurance companies, life insurance companies, private pension funds, state and local retirement funds, and federalgovernment retirement funds.Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States Table F.223 sum of lines 22, 23, 24, 25, and 26.
yardeni.com
Figure 37.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
-400
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0
200
400
600
800
Q1
CORPORATE EQUITIES NET PURCHASES (INCLUDING ETF SHARES): REST OF WORLD(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)
Rest of World
Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States Table F.223 Line 32.
yardeni.com
Figure 38.
Predicting Stocks
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
Q1
CORPORATE EQUITIES NET PURCHASES (INCLUDING ETF SHARES): MUTUAL FUNDS(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)
Equity Mutual Funds*
* Includes purchases by both equity funds and hybrid funds that invest in a mix of equity and debt securities.Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States Table F.223 Line 27.
yardeni.com
Figure 39.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 230
50
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0
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250
300
350
400
450
500
Q1
CORPORATE EQUITIES NET PURCHASES (INCLUDING ETF SHARES): ETFs(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)
Equity ETFs*
* Includes purchases by both equity funds and hybrid funds that invest in a mix of equity and debt securities.Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States Table F.223 line 29.
yard
eni.c
om
Figure 40.
Predicting Stocks
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
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350
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-50
0
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150
200
250
300
350
Q1
US DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS & ETFs: NET INFLOWS(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)
Domestic Equity Mutual Funds& ETFs
Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States Table F.122 line 16 plus F.124 line 9.
yardeni.com
Figure 41.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
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400
-150
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0
50
100
150
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300
350
400
Q1
US WORLD EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS & ETFs: NET INFLOWS(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)
World Equity Mutual Funds & ETFs
Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States Table F.122 line 17 plus F.124 line 10.
yardeni.com
Figure 42.
Predicting Stocks
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25.0.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.56.06.57.07.58.08.59.09.510.010.511.011.512.012.513.013.514.014.5
.0
.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.56.06.57.07.58.08.59.09.5
10.010.511.011.512.012.513.013.514.014.5
MayEQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS*(cumulative flows since 1990, trillion dollars)
Cumulative FlowsNet AssetsNet InflowsCapital Gains
* Excludes equities purchased by hybrid funds that invest in a mix of equity and debt securities.Source: Investment Company Institute.
yardeni.com
Figure 43.
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023-.3-.1.1.3.5.7.91.11.31.51.71.92.12.32.52.72.93.13.33.53.73.94.14.34.54.7
-.3-.1.1.3.5.7.9
1.11.31.51.71.92.12.32.52.72.93.13.33.53.73.94.14.34.54.7
Dec
EQUITY ETFs*(cumulative flows since 2001, trillion dollars)
Cumulative FlowsNet AssetsNet InflowsCapital Gains
* Excludes equities purchased by hybrid funds that invest in a mix of equity and debt securities.Source: Investment Company Institute.
yardeni.com
Figure 44.
Predicting Stocks
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 202350
60
70
80
90
100
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120
130
140
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160
170
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190
200
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0102030405060708090
100110120130140150160170180190200210220230240250260
7/17
7/22
S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & BOOM-BUST BAROMETER(weekly)
S&P 500Forward Earnings*
Boom-Bust Barometer**
* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for the current year and next year.** CRB raw industrials spot price index (weekly average) divided by weekly initial unemployment claims, showing four-week moving average.
Source: Commodity Research Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
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Figure 45.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023600
800
1000
1200
1400
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1800
2000
2200
2400
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2800
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3200
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3800
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4200
4400
-10
30
70
110
150
190
230
270
310
7/17
7/27S&P 500 INDEX & BOOM-BUST BAROMETER
Boom-Bust Barometer*
S&P 500 Index
* CRB raw industrials spot price index (weekly average) divided by weekly initial unemployment claims, showing four-week moving average.Source: Commodity Research Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Standard & Poor’s.
yardeni.com
Figure 46.
Predicting Stocks
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023600
800
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10/13
7/27S&P 500 INDEX & YRI WEEKLY LEADING INDEX
S&P 500 Index
YRI Weekly Leading Index*
* Average of Consumer Comfort Index (which is a four-week average) and the four-week average of Boom-Bust Barometer, which is CRB raw industrialsspot price index (weekly average) divided by weekly initial unemployment claims.Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Standard & Poor’s.
yardeni.com
Figure 47.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
155
160
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
10/13
7/23
YRI vs ECRI WEEKLY LEADING INDEX
YRI Weekly Leading Index*
FIBER Weekly Leading Index(1992=100)
* Average of Consumer Comfort Index (which is a four-week average) and the four-week average of Boom-Bust Barometer, which is CRB raw industrialsspot price index (weekly average) divided by weekly initial unemployment claims.Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Foundation of International Business & Economic Research (FIBER).
yardeni.com
Figure 48.
Predicting Stocks
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
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3200
3400
3600
3800
4000
4200
4400
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
155
160 7/27S&P 500 INDEX & ECRI WEEKLY LEADING INDEX
FIBER WeeklyLeading Index(1992=100)
S&P 500 Index
Source: Standard & Poor’s and Foundation of International Business & Economic Research (FIBER).
yardeni.com
Figure 49.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23400
600
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75
125
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275
325
375
425
475
525
575
625
675
725
775
825
875
925 7/27MARGIN DEBT & S&P 500
Margin Debt*(billion dollars)
S&P 500 Index
yardeni.com
* Debit balances in margin accounts at broker/dealers.Source: Financial Industry Regulatory Authority and Standard & Poor’s.
Figure 50.
Predicting Stocks
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220
10
20
30
40
50
60
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80
90
100
110
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
S&P 500 % OF COMPANIES TRADING ABOVE 200-DMA*
7/16
Note: Corrections are declines of 10% or more, while minor ones are 5%-10% (all in blue shades). Bear markets are declines of 20% or more (in red shades).Number of calendar days in parentheses.
* Using end of week price data to calculate equivalent 10-wma and 40-wma to approximate their 50-dma and 200-dma.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
yardeni.com
Figure 51.
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
S&P 500 % OF COMPANIES POSITIVE Y/Y PRICE CHANGE*
7/16
-56.8% (517)
-16.0% (70)
-19.4% (157)
-9.8% (28)
-9.9% (60)
-7.7% (62)
-5.8% (34)
-5.8% (19)
-6.9% (37)
-12.4% (96)
-11.6% (101)
Note: Corrections are declines of 10% or more, while minor ones are 5%-10% (all in blue shades). Bear markets are declines of 20% or more(in red shades). Number of calendar days in parentheses.
* Using end of week price data to calculate year-over-year price change.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
yardeni.com
Figure 52.
Predicting Stocks
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23.7
.8
.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
7/217/21
yardeni.com
STOCK MARKET BREADTH: S&P 500 RATIOS
S&P 500 Ratio:Equal-Weighted to Market-Cap-WeightedRatio of S&P 500 toS&P 100 Stock Price Indexes
Source: Standard & Poor’s.
Figure 53.
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 202350
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450500550600650
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450500550600650
7/23ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE (ALL NYSE SECURITIES)(thousands, weekly, ratio scale)
Source: The Wall Street Journal.
yardeni.com
Figure 54.
Predicting Stocks
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 20230
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
7/27
S&P 500 VIX & HIGH YIELD CORPORATE BOND SPREAD
S&P 500 VIX
High-YieldCorporate Spread*
* US high-yield corporate bond yield less US Treasury 10-year bond yield (basis points).Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange, Bank of America Merill Lynch, and Federal Reserve Board.
yardeni.com
Figure 55.
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 230
20
40
60
80
100
0
20
40
60
80
100
7/27
S&P 500 VIX & INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BEARS
Investors Intelligence Bears(percent)
S&P 500 VIX
Source: Investors Intelligence and Chicago Board Options Exchange.
yardeni.com
Figure 56.
Predicting Stocks
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 57.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 240
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
6/15
INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULLS & BEARS
RatioBulls/Bears*
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 2410
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
6/15
PercentageBullsBears
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 245
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
6/15
PercentageCorrectionCamp
yardeni.com
Source: Investors Intelligence.
Predicting Stocks
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24200
600
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1400
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2600
30003400380042004600
200
600
1000
1400
1800
2200
2600
30003400380042004600
S&P 500 INDEX vs BULL/BEAR RATIOOF 1.0 OR LESS*
(ratio scale)
7/27
yardeni.com
* Green shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0.Source: Standard & Poor’s and Investors Intelligence.
Figure 58.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24200
600
1000
1400
1800
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30003400380042004600
200
600
1000
1400
1800
2200
2600
30003400380042004600
S&P 500 INDEX vs BULL/BEAR RATIO OF3.0 OR MORE*
(ratio scale)
7/27
yardeni.com
* Red shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than 3.0.Source: Standard & Poor’s and Investors Intelligence.
Figure 59.
Predicting Stocks
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 60.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2011
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
-60
-40
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0
20
40
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100
5748
55 5853 51 53 53
41
53 55
66
-34-43
-36 -33-38 -40 -38 -38
-49
-38 -36
-25
S&P 500 INDEX: TOTAL NUMBER UP OR DOWN EACH MONTH 1928-2018*
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
4.1
2.93.4
4.2
3.13.8
5.0
3.93.2
4.1 3.9
2.9
-3.9-3.3 -3.6 -3.8
-4.6
-3.2 -3.2-3.9
-4.6 -4.7-4.1
-3.1
S&P 500 INDEX: AVERAGE PERCENT UP OR DOWN EACH MONTH 1928-2018
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec-1.5
-1.0
-.5
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-.5
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
1.1
-0.1
0.6
1.3
-0.1
0.7
1.6
0.6
-1.0
0.4
0.7
1.3
S&P 500 INDEX: AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE EACH MONTH 1928-2018
Average gain
Average loss
*No change (0.00%) month of September 1979. Data are through December 2018. Source: Standard & Poor’s and Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Predicting Stocks
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