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Chapter 10
Real GDP and the Price Level in the Long Run
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison Wesley. All rights reserved. 10-2
Chapter Overview
• Aggregate Demand (AD)
• Long Run Aggregate Supply (LRAS)
• Long Run Equilibrium Price Level Real GDP
• Inflation / Deflation
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison Wesley. All rights reserved. 10-3
Aggregates
• What is an economic aggregate? An abstraction
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison Wesley. All rights reserved. 10-4
Output Growth and the Long-Run Aggregate Supply Curve
• Aggregate Supply
The total of all planned production for the economy
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison Wesley. All rights reserved. 10-5
Output Growth and the Long-Run Aggregate Supply Curve (cont'd)
• Long-Run Aggregate Supply Curve
A vertical line representing the real output of goods and services after full adjustment has occurred
It represents the real GDP of the economy under conditions of full employment; the economy is on its production possibilities curve
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison Wesley. All rights reserved. 10-6
Figure 10-1 The Production Possibilities and the Economy’s Long-Run Aggregate Supply Curve
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison Wesley. All rights reserved. 10-7
Output Growth and the Long-Run Aggregate Supply Curve (cont'd)
• Growth is shown by outward shifts of either the production possibilities curve or the LRAS curve caused by
Growth of population
Growth in labor-force participation rate
Capital accumulation
Improvements in technology
Increase in resource base
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison Wesley. All rights reserved. 10-8
Figure 10-2 The Long-Run Aggregate Supply Curve and Shifts in It
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison Wesley. All rights reserved. 10-9
Total Expenditures and Aggregate Demand
• Aggregate Demand
The total of all planned expenditures in the entire economy
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison Wesley. All rights reserved. 10-10
Total Expenditures and Aggregate Demand (cont'd)
• Questions
What determines the total amount that individuals, governments, firms, and foreigners want to spend?
What determines the equilibrium price level?
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison Wesley. All rights reserved. 10-11
The Aggregate Demand Curve
• Aggregate Demand Curve
A curve showing planned purchase rates for all final goods and services in the economy at various price levels, all other things held constant
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison Wesley. All rights reserved. 10-12
Figure 10-4 The Aggregate Demand Curve
As the price level rises, real GDP declines
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison Wesley. All rights reserved. 10-13
The Aggregate Demand Curve (cont'd)
• What happens when the price level changes? The real-balance effect (or wealth effect)
The interest rate effect
The open economy effect
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison Wesley. All rights reserved. 10-14
The Aggregate Demand Curve (cont'd)
• The Real-Balance Effect(The Wealth Effect)
Purchasing Power of cash balances
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison Wesley. All rights reserved. 10-15
The Aggregate Demand Curve (cont'd)
• The Interest Rate Effect
Lower price levels indirectly decrease the interest rate, which in turn causes an increase in borrowing and spending.
↓ Price level ↓ demand for loans ↓ i-rate
↓ Price Level ↓ i-rate ↑ Investment
↑ Consumption
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison Wesley. All rights reserved. 10-16
The Aggregate Demand Curve (cont'd)
• The Open Economy Effect
Higher price levels result in foreigners’ desiring to buy fewer American-made goods while Americans desire more foreign-made goods (i.e., net exports fall).
↑ P-level ↓ goods purchased
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison Wesley. All rights reserved. 10-17
Aggregate Demand versus Demand for a Single Good
• When the aggregate demand curve is derived, we are looking at the entire circular flow of income and product.
• When a demand curve is derived, we are looking at a single product in one market only.
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison Wesley. All rights reserved. 10-18
Shifts in the Aggregate Demand Curve
• Any non-price-level change that increases aggregate spending (on domestic goods) shifts AD to the right.
• Any non-price-level change that decreases aggregate spending (on domestic goods) shifts AD to the left.
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison Wesley. All rights reserved. 10-19
Shifts in the Aggregate Demand Curve
Real GDP per Year($ trillions)
GD
P D
efla
tor
3 40
120
1 2 6 75
90
AD1AD
Increase in aggregate demand
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison Wesley. All rights reserved. 10-20
Shifts in the Aggregate Demand Curve (cont'd)
Real GDP per Year($ trillions)
GD
P D
efla
tor
11 120
120
9 10 14 1513
100
AD
Decrease in aggregate demand
AD1
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison Wesley. All rights reserved. 10-21
Non Price Determinants of Aggregate Demand (AD)
• Government Spending
• Tax Policy
• Expectations
• Money Supply
• Population
• Foreign exchange rate
• Economic Conditions in other countries
• Interest Rate
Fiscal Policy
Monetary Policy
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison Wesley. All rights reserved. 10-22
Long-Run Equilibrium and the Price Level
• For the economy as a whole, long-run equilibrium occurs at the price level where the aggregate demand curve (AD) crosses the long-run aggregate supply curve (LRAS).
• Equilibrium = Stability
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison Wesley. All rights reserved. 10-23
Figure 10-5 Long-Run Economywide Equilibrium
Equilibrium
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Long-Run Equilibrium and the Price Level (cont'd)
• The effects of economic growth on the price level
Economic growth and secular deflation
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison Wesley. All rights reserved. 10-25
Long-Run Equilibrium and the Price Level (cont'd)
• Secular Deflation
A persistent decline in prices resulting from economic growth in the presence of stable aggregate demand
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison Wesley. All rights reserved. 10-26
Secular Deflation versus Long-Run Price Stability in a Growing Economy
• Secular deflation An increase in LRAS will, ceteris paribus, result in
a decrease in the price level.
• Avoiding secular deflation If the AD curve shifts outward by the same
amount as the LRAS curve, the price level remains constant.
The AD curve can be shifted outward by increasing the money supply.
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison Wesley. All rights reserved. 10-27
Figure 10-6 Secular Deflation versus Long-Run Price Stability in a Growing Economy, Panel (a)
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison Wesley. All rights reserved. 10-28
Figure 10-6 Secular Deflation versus Long-Run Price Stability in a Growing Economy, Panel (b)
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison Wesley. All rights reserved. 10-29
International Example: Deflation is the Norm in Japan
• Since 1998, Japan’s real GDP has increased every year except 2002.
• As the LRAS curve shifted rightward, the price level gradually declined.
• Consequently Japan experienced deflation.
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison Wesley. All rights reserved. 10-30
Secular Inflation
• A persistent rise in prices resulting from Aggregate Demand (AD) increasing faster that aggregate supply
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison Wesley. All rights reserved. 10-31
• When LRAS1 shifts to LRAS2, the price level rises from 120 to 140
• Inflation is caused by a decrease in LRAS
Supply Side Inflation
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison Wesley. All rights reserved. 10-32
Demand Side Inflation
An increase in AD from AD1 to AD2 causes the price level to rise from 120 to 140, and an increase in AD causes inflation
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Figure 10-7 Inflation Rates in the United States
Source: Economic Report of the President; Economic Indicators, various issues