Chapter 10: Elections and Campaigns

Types of elections

Primary / Caucus• Designed to choose the parties

nominee• Example: Romney, Paul, Huntsman,

Gingrich, Santorum competing to be Republican nominee for 2012

• Types:• Closed: must declare in advance that

you are a member of the party to take part in this election• About 40 states (why? )

• Open: on primary election day you pick which parties primary you will vote on• 8 states

• Blanket: can vote in primaries for both parties• Washington & Alaska

General

• Designed to pick the candidate who will actually hold office• Example: Obama vs.

Romney

Hon .Clay Henry III of Lajitas , Texas

Types of Elections• Primary / Caucus• How to get on the ballot in NJ (each state is different) http://

nj.gov/state/elections/candidate_pdf/partisan-candidate-requirements-123011.pdf

• It is estimated to cost about $50 million to run a successful primary/caucus campaign (Romney spent $110 million)• In the past 3 decades, in almost every case, the candidate who

raised the most money during this stage in the process won their party’s nomination

• What is a Caucus?• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fobO82jbNRg• 19 states

• Why do most states hold primaries?• C’s are too time consuming!!!!• About 10% turnout

Primaries / Caucuses• So where does that $ go?• Organization

• Fundraisers , Accountants , Press secretary , Scheduler , Speech writers , TV and internet advertising specialist , Pollsters , Direct mailing company & Social media specialists

Helps to win Iowa Caucus and N. H. Primary • only 2 candidates in the past 10 elections have lost both and gone on to win their

party’s nomination• G. W. Bush in 2000• Clinton in 1992

So what do you have to do to win? Read: the excerpt from Stormy Weather

1. What can help a candidate gain momentum?2. How long does the “invisible primary” last?3. Iowa doesn’t award delegates until weeks after the caucuses, so why are the Iowa

caucuses still seen as important?4. Why does New Hampshire remain an indicator of who will win the eventual

nomination?

Primaries / Caucuses• Need to motivate voters to

turn out for you• Primary turnout low

• About 20%

• This results in candidates trying to appeal to the base of their party while also looking ahead to general election• Republicans: need to appear

conservative• Democrats: need to appear

liberal• During the general election

candidates generally return to more moderate stances, must remember what you say during primary/ caucus season will be used by your opponent• Can result in “Clothespin voting”

Presidential Primaries / Caucuses• When voting in a P/C you are actually selecting delegates who

will attend the party’s National Convention to demonstrate support for that candidate. • Much like the electoral college

The Party’s decide the rules, they are not in the Constitution or state law, the party’s can change the rules prior to an election.

• Democrats award delegates proportionally in all states• Republicans allow the state to decide if they want a winner

take all system or a proportional system• NJ = winner take all

Delegates

Democrats• Total number of delegates: 4,339

Pledged: 3,537Unpledged: 802

• PLEDGED "PLEO" (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) DELEGATES• Based on % of democratic vote in

that state in the past 3 presidential elections

• UNPLEDGED "PLEO" DELEGATES (Super delegates occurred after 1980) Primarily Democratic Members of Congress, Governors, and "distinguished party leaders." 802 total.• This equals 15% of pledged

delegates

Republican• Total Number of Delegates: 2,066

Pledged: 1,907Unpledged: 159

• Each state gets 6 delegates plus 3 for each member in the House

• BONUS DELEGATES Each state can earn additional delegates by meeting one or more of the following requirements: • the state cast a majority of its votes for

the Republican presidential candidate in the previous presidential election

• the state elected Republicans to the U.S. House or Senate, selected a Republican Governor or state legislative majorities

• and / or the state holds its presidential primary election after March 15th (this is to discourage states from holding early primaries).

General Presidential vs. General Congressional Campaigns

Presidential

• More voters participate• Typically about VEP 60%

turnout since 1964

• More party turnover• Past 20 elections

• Republicans 9 times• Democrats 11 times

Congressional• Less voter turn-out, especially

during midterm elections (non-presidential election years 2002,2006, 2010..)• Typically about 36% turnout since 1964

• Historically less party turnover(recent exceptions include 2006 and 2010)

Why less turnover?!? • Incumbency advantage

• More direct connection to the voter (service to constituents)

• Separate themselves from the “mess in Washington”

• Sophomore surge: can use perks of office to get elected

How to get on the ballot for the general election in NJ http://nj.gov/state/elections/petitions/2012-general-president-inst.pdf

Presidential Elections• Who does the public prefer?• Most candidates have experience in multiple areas listed below

Presidential Election• Theme?

• A simple ,appealing idea that can be repeated over and over and over and over and over (you get it)• Obama: Forward• Romney: We can’t afford 4 more years

• If you are an incumbent, you will invariably have to defend your record

• Tone? • Positive?• Build me up

• Negative?• Knock them down

Negative Campaigning

• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hLj6yY4P_Rg Jefferson and Adams

• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dDTBnsqxZ3k Daisy

• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Io9KMSSEZ0Y Willy Horton

• Timing?• Start too early and you may go broke, too late and

you may not build up enough momentum or name recognition

• Targets?• Who are the undecided in this election? How will

you sway them?• Use precise targeting / “micro-targeting”• New demographics(see next slide)

Targets: Demographics• http://

www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/nj?hpt=elec_racenav • Need to focus on these voters and mobilize them!!!!

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/politics/july-dec12/gop_11-08.html• What groups are Republicans going to have to reach out

to to win the next presidential election ? • How can the Republicans appeal to women and Latinos without

changing their core beliefs?

Presidential Elections• What types of issues will the candidate focus on?• Position: rival parties take different stances

• Taxation: • Obama : increase taxes on wealthy to help pay down debt• Romney: decrease tax rate for all to help struggling economy

• Valence: how closely a party/candidate is connected with a concept• Nixon: associated with a tough stance on crime• Reagan: more associated with a strong economy

Presidential Elections• Who is going to be your Vice

President?• Need to pick someone who will

appeal to a part of the party you may not appeal to “balance the ticket” • Youth / Experience• Regional • Moderate / Conservative or

Liberal• Unify party after bitter primary

• Classic examples• Kennedy and Johnson• Reagan / G.H.W. Bush

• How does Obama /Biden reflect this?

• How does Romney / Ryan reflect this?

• Classic Anomaly:• Clinton / Gore

Presidential Elections• How will you “advertise” your candidate?• TV• Debates• Direct Mail• Internet

General Election and the Electoral College• http://

hallnj.org/press/press-releases/1561-video-release-hall-institute-and-league-of-women-voters-nj-release-video-psa-to-dispel-first-time-voting-myths

• http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=50133559n&tag=showDoorFlexGridLeft;flexGridModule

Electoral College: 538 electors in total (100+435+3) , need 270Meet on the first Monday after the 2nd Wednesday in December votes sent to Congress counted during a joint session

How are electors chosen?What happens if there is a tie? (1825)

election of 1800: Jefferson v. Adams12th amendment: Electors vote on separate ballot for pres and VP to avoid rivals holding office

together

http://news.yahoo.com/photos/2012-election-maps-slideshow/#crsl=%252Fphotos%252F2012-election-maps-slideshow%252Felection-maps-photo--47474268.html How the 2012 election broke down, various maps

Electoral College

Pros

• Allows for both people and states to be represented : Federalism• “Extended Republic”• Need to appeal to a variety

of voters, not just one faction or region

Cons

• Doesn’t always reflect the will of the people• Can have faithless

electors• Doesn’t reflect the idea

of 1 person, 1 vote• Wyoming has one "elector"

for every 177,556 people and Texas has one "elector" for about every 715,499.

Campaign Spending• Reading:• Summarize the rules governing campaign finance

• FECA• BCRA / McCain Feingold Act• Public Funding

• Buckley v. Valeo• What was Buckley’s argument?• What did the Supreme Court rule?• How does this currently impact elections?

Campaign Finance• “There are two things that are important in politics.The first is money and I can’t remember what the second one is.”

• —Ohio political boss and U.S. Senator Mark Hanna, 1895

Hard Money vs. Soft money:Hard money : money given directly to a candidate’s campaignSoft Money: money used to promotes issuesDark money: contributions that don’t have to be disclosed (501c4s)

PACs and Super PACs• Political Action Committees• Created in 1940s by the CIO as a way to contribute to FDR’s campaign• Organizations that have developed with the sole purpose of helping a

candidate to get (re)elected to office• Individuals and organizations can contribute up to $5,000 annually to

a PAC• PACs can legally contribute only $5,000 to a candidate committee per

election (primary, general or special). • They can also give up to $15,000 annually to any national party

committee, and $5,000 annually to any other PAC.• However, there is no limit to how much PACs can spend on

advertising in support of candidates or in promotion of their agendas or beliefs.

• PACs must register with and file detailed financial reports of monies raised and spent to the Federal Election Commission.

PACs and Super PACs• Traditional PACs include two distinct types of political

committees registered with the FEC:

• separate segregated funds (SSFs) • political committees established by corporations, labor

unions, membership organizations or trade associations that can only solicit contributions from individuals associated with the sponsoring organization• Microsoft PAC

• No connected committees • not sponsored by or connected to any of the listed

organizations and are free to solicit contributions from the general public, subject to campaign contribution limits. • National Rifle Association

PACs and Super PACs• Created as a result of 3 Court Decisions• In January 2010, the Supreme Court dealt a major blow to

McCain-Feingold (BCRA). Ruling in Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission, the court said that the government cannot prevent corporations and unions from spending unlimited money to support or criticize specific candidates.

• Drawing on this decision in March 2010, a federal appeals court ruled in SpeechNow.org v. Federal Election Commission that political committees making independent expenditures—that is, spending not coordinated with or directed by a candidate’s campaign—could accept donations of unlimited size.

Super PACs

PACs and Super PACs• https://

www.youtube.com/watch?v=DmQ37zm7-uU&playnext=1&list=PL4DCB26A567603634&feature=results_video

• Super PACs may not contribute directly to candidate’s campaign or to political parties but instead spend money independent of a political campaign to influence the result.

• In addition, they can raise funds from corporations, unions and other groups, and from individuals, without legal limits.

• According to FEC rules, Super PACs are not allowed to cooperate, consult, or act in concert with a candidate or their agents or a political party or its agents.

• They can , however, publically declare support for one candidate or another.

• List of current Super PACs• http://www.opensecrets.org/pacs/superpacs.php?cycle=2012

Presidential Campaign Spending• http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/campaign-finance

• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pMvG54GjtRI

Review Basics Can do Can’t doPACs (1940s)

NRAhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3M7cTb68_I Hard money

Only purpose is to get a candidate elected

Donate directly to a candidate(s)Donate directly to a campaign. Must disclose donorsEndorse a candidate

Accept more than $5,000 in individual donations , can’t donate more than $5,000 to an individual candidate

Super PACs (2010)Restore our Futurehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f4uTKnhjH1M&feature=relmfu

Soft Money

Designed to promote a candidate and/or specific issues during an election

Accept unlimited donations from individuals and /or labor unions and corps., endorse a specific candidate , support issues, must disclose donors

Donate to or work with an individual candidate or a political party

527sEmily’s ListCitizens Unitedhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aPfr4GvJG1g

Soft money

Only purpose is to promote issues during an election, turning into Super-PACs

Accept unlimited donations from individuals and corporations (as a result of citizens), support an issue , must disclose donors

actually support a candidate : basically can’t say “vote for x” donate to a candidate

501 (c) (4) s

Crossroads gps , NAACPhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NT8xAlxKV-w

Soft money / Dark Money

Social welfare organization that can use some of its funds to promote issues

Accept unlimited donations from individuals and corporations , support an issue , don’t need to disclose donors

spend more than 50% of organizations wealth on “educating” people on issues during a campaign actually support a candidate : basically can’t say “vote for x” donate to a candidate

Rules governing campaign finance• FECA (1972):• Imposed contribution limits to a candidates campaign• Limited campaign expenditures• Need to disclose donor information• Created public financing• Created Federal Election Commission

Buckley v. Valeo: testing constitutionality of FECA

Constitutional

• Limits on direct contributions to candidates• Optional public financing• Disclosing contributions• Creation of FEC

Unconstitutional

• Limits on candidates expenditures (spending)• Except if you accept public

funding

BRCA / McCain –Feingold (2002)• Labor Unions and corporations can’t fund ads, limits on attack

ads prior to elections• Limits on how much $ could be given to PACs and how much

PACs could give to candidates and political parties

Citizens United and the 2012 Election: A Case Study• http://

topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/subjects/c/campaign_finance/index.html

• http://www.pbs.org/newshour/extra/features/us/jan-june10/scotus_01-22.pdf

• http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/22/magazine/how-much-has-citizens-united-changed-the-political-game.html?pagewanted=all

• Basic information about Citizens United• What changes did Citizens

United make to campaign finance regulation?

• Do you agree or disagree with this decision? Why?

• Impact of Citizens on 2012 election • Write a 1 paragraph reaction

to this article.

Citizens United• 5-4 ruling by SCOTUS• Corporations and Labor Unions are allowed to give unlimited

monetary contributions to outside spending groups (527s, 501c4s), the ruling was based on the 1st amendment rights of these organizations (freedom of political speech)

• Labor Unions and Corporations can use general funds to create ads to support candidates or issues • Cannot directly donate to a candidate

• No restrictions on when negative ads funded by outside groups can air on TV• Was 30 days before a primary, 60 days before a general election

Thoughts on Citizens ruling?

Frontline: Big Sky, Big Money• Day 1: 1. How much money has been spent on ads in the Senate race

in Montana? What % has come from outside groups? Do you think that this statistic matters?( be specific)

2. How do 501 c4s and Super PACs differ?3. Why may an individual / corporation / labor union rather

contribute to a 501 c4?4. Define “magic words”, give a few examples.

http://video.pbs.org/video/2298009584/ link to video

Big Sky, Big Money • Day 2:1. Jim Bopp, Jr. contends that the anonymity that 501c4s

provide donors is beneficial to the political process. Do you agree or disagree? Why?

2. In the case of Montana v. WTP:1. What are the issues?2. How does the Montana Supreme Court rule?3. Ultimately how does SCOTUS rule?

3. After viewing the film answer the following question in 5-8 sentences citing specific examples from the film

1. Does having less restrictions on 501c4s impede or enhance our electoral process?

Questions to consider when reflecting on campaign finance regulations• Should there be any limits on what candidates and political parties can

spend during a campaign (hard money)?• Should there be any limits on what independent (outside ) expenditure

groups (501c4s, 527s, Super PACs) can spend (soft money) ?• Citizens United declared that corporations and labor unions have the same

rights to political free speech as individuals. Do you agree?

• Can you just allow corporations or labor unions to have political personhood?

• Should there be any media restrictions on the number and/or frequency of ads any entity can produce?

• Should 501c4s have to disclose donors? • Should 527s, 501c4s, and Super PACS be able to coordinate with candidates?• Do these groups actually allow for more groups (factions) to be represented?

(Would Madison approve?) • Do you think these groups may allow for 3rd party candidates to be viable

candidates for office?

Campaign Finance: Public Funding• The Federal Election Commission began public funding in 1976.• Eligible Presidential candidates use federal funds in their primary and general

election campaigns, and the major parties used public funds to pay for their nominating conventions.

• Candidates are eligible to get $20 mil from the government and can spend up to $50,000 of their own $, the total limit for 2012 was $91.5 million• A candidate could raise $70 million and spend that as well.

• Where does the $ come from?• The U.S. Treasury makes the actual payments from the Presidential

Election Campaign Fund. • This fund consists of dollars voluntarily checked off by taxpayers on their

federal income tax returns. • To be eligible the candidate: • Must be a member of a political party• Must show broad based support by raising at least $5,000 in at least 20

states (100,000)

http://www.fec.gov/pages/brochures/pubfund.shtml#anchor684182

Congressional Elections• All 435 House seats are up for election every 2 years (even

numbered years)• 1/3 of the 100 Senate seats are up for election every 2 years

(even numbered years) • This is to avoid total turnover of the Senate

• Mature, experienced body to temper the whims of the House• Federalism• Republic, not a democracy

House Elections• It is up to Congress to decide how many representatives each

state will have• Must have at least 1• House was originally set at 65 members, last set at 435 in

1911 and decided to keep that as the fixed number • States may have seats added or subtracted every 10 years

based on the results of the census• Since the 1950s states in the Sun belt have been adding seats,

states in the rust belt have lost seats• When states add or subtract seats they have to redraw their

districts.• Malapportionament: unequal representation in districts (more on

this later• Gerrymandering: drawing district lines to benefit one political party

When creating a district these are the things that you must do!!!• Population Equality - Each election district must have the same

number of constituents. This generally ranges between 640,000 - 650,000 people. At the federal level, courts tend to enforce the population equality standard very strictly.

• • Contiguity - Each district must be one continuous shape. No "land islands" are allowed. U.S. courts always enforce the principle of contiguity.

• • Compactness - Generally speaking, districts need to be drawn in compact shapes. Extremely jagged edges and skinny extensions are features that are the hallmarks of gerrymandered districts. Because compactness is a traditional standard about which there is no generally accepted method of measurement, the courts in most states do not usually enforce the compactness principle in practice.

Gerrymandering• Term first used in

1812 to reflect the redrawing of districts in Massachusetts overseen by then Gov. Elbridge Gerry• They were drawn to

favor the Democratic-Republican Party• Gerry + Salamander =

gerrymander

Modern Examples

Gerrymandering

• Packing: when you try to fill a district with as many members of the same party as possible• may be done by 1 political

party that controls the process, or by bipartisan commissions to keep incumbency advantages

• Cracking: when you try to break the influence of one party or minority group in an area by dividing that area between different districts• Done when 1 political party

wants to maintain control

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bh4qAJDUOcc What are kidnapping and hijacking?

Hijacking: If there's an incumbent you don't like, you can make their re-election difficult by putting them in a district with another incumbent of the same party to contend with. You can force a costly primary battle, weakening your likely opponent before general election.

Kidnapping: Moving an incumbents house into another district where they have little name recognition, making it much more difficult for them to win (taking them from their base)

Cracking a very liberal voting area in Ohio

Packing districts to ensure incumbency advantage

Packing African Americans into 1 district

Land island, not allowed!!!!

Getting elected to Congress• Most important factors in getting a candidate elected• Party, candidate characteristics, incumbency advantage and

issues• Candidate Characteristics:• Race, ethnicity, religion, gender, geography, and social

background all matter• In general voters prefer candidates that are closer to themselves in

these categories

• Incumbency advantage• 1962-2012: 90% of incumbents in the House have sought re-

election and won!!!!!!!!!• 2012: 23 incumbents lost house seats

• Remember 435 were up for election

% of Representatives defeated while seeking re-election

% of candidates not seeking re-election

Baker v. Carr and other S.C. cases impacting redistricting• Baker v. Carr: • Malapportionment (unequal population in districts) violates the

Equal protection clause of the 14th amendment• All citizens must be treated equally and without bias

• Federal courts can intervene in the redistricting process, after reapportionment if needed

• One person , One Vote (districts need to make pop, in districts as close to equal as possible)• This ruling narrowly applied to state legislatures due to the nature of

the case• Challenging state assembly districts in Tennessee

• Wesbury v. Sanders: • One Man , one vote applies to House districts, as well as state

legislatures• Challenged the malapportionment of Georgia’s house districts• Causes a whole bunch of redistricting!!!!!

Why do we need redistricting? Hypothetical situation • I

642,000

641,000

642,000

644,000

867,000

796,000

336,000

769,000

20012010

Re-districting Game

http://www.redistrictinggame.org/

Have fun packing, cracking, kidnapping, hijacking!!!!!!!!

Review• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c6avsQKngNk

• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3d-bYU2cZ48