Chaos TheoryAn Alternative Paradigm

in the Study of Organization Crises

Sukanda Panpetch

Introduction.

Chaos theory is the study of nonlinear dynamics, where

seemingly random but it’s have orders and events are actually

predictable from simple deterministic equations.

In social science chaos theory is revolution of

complexity ideas system. This revolution began with a set of ideas having to do with disorder in nature and

social behavior.

Chaos theory is rooted in mathematics and the natural

sciences, but the bestselling book by James Gleick made chaos

theory understandable to those outside the mathematics and physics disciplines. Shortly

thereafter, social, scientists, organizational scholars, and

psychologists became interested in chaos theory and could be used as

a lens for understanding the complex social and psychological interactions that make up these

disciplines.

Chaos theory is an alternative paradigm in the study of organization crises

as a metaphor to explain phenomena.

Introduction.

The appeal of chaos theory. The appeal of chaos theory

has been likened to a romantic appreciation of disorder and could

be used as a lens for viewing organizations and seek to find

order emerging in systems that may not exhibit a clear sense of cause and effect thus Chaos is a state whereby phenomena that appear to be unrelated actually

follow an unknown or hidden pattern

chaos used as metaphors to explain organizational phenomena

of a nonmathematical nature. Morgan Gareth was a key player and Following this lead, others

have encouraged the use of chaos theory as a metaphor in the study of organizational phenomena as

well.

The Malden Mill Fire

The incident viewed through chaos theory.

1- sensitive dependence to intial conditions. 2- the inability to predict occurrences for the long run. 3- the presence of bifurcations.

4- a phenomenon known as a strange attractor.

5- behavior that is nonlinear. 6- the presence of positive

feedback.

All important concepts conditions in chaos theory.

Sensitive Dependence on Initial Conditions

Components of chaos theory.

Edward Lorenz noted that a slight change in the

initial input of data can lead to vastly different results.

This now famous occurrence led to the popular "butterfly

effect" illustration. The key to unlocking chaos theory: A slight change in initial conditions can lead to a vastly

different outcome in the system.

Components of chaos theory.

Unpredictability in the Long RunThe behavior of a

chaotic system cannot be predicted in the long run. At

best, there may be some accuracy in short-term

predictions. The predicting in the long-ran

is impossible, but short-run predictions are possible.

Components of chaos theory.

BifurcationsA bifurcation is a point

in the behavior of the system where the outcome can

actually oscillate between two possible values in

alternating time periods. Chaos theorists call this

period doubling.

Two possible outcomes in alternating time periods when a

chaotic state is reached and then the system continued to move in

and out of chaos because bifurcations can change the system suddenly, causing it to behave in a

difference way.

Components of chaos theory.

AttractorsIn chaos theory, an

attractor is a pattern that forms the behavior of a

nonlinear system, that is, the different states throught

various points in time. Four types of attractors have been identified: point, pendulum, torus, and

strange.

Attractors are the behavior of the system follows a pattern

through time.

Components of chaos theory.

NonlinearNonlinear systems have

relationships among variables that are not linear and may be curvilinear, U-shaped, S-shaped, or any

combination of these. Chaotic systems are

nonlinear and do not have the predictability for

variables that linear systems have.

The natural world and the social world behave in a nonlinear

fashion, chaos theory offers a suitable perspective for examining

these systems.

f(x+y) ≠ f(x)+f(y)

Components of chaos theory.

FeedbackTwo concepts of

feedback mush be presented: negative and

potsitive. Negative feedback occurs when the system

returns to a steady or normal state and Positive feedback, on the other hand, amplifies

deviations until a chaotic state is reached.

Negative feedback is returns to a steady or normal state,, Positive feedback is amplifies deviations.

Components of chaos theory.

Self-OrganizationThis term describes the

chaotic system's ability to change itself into a new form

without intervention from forces outside the system. The concept posits that a chaotic stage is necessary before a new system can

emerge.

Self-Organization is changing to the organization are usually inevitable after a crisis hits.

Chaos Theory and Organizational Crises.

Crisis is part of a larger system that is displaying chaotic behavior.

it is more accurate to start

with the assumption that all organizations

currently reside in chaotic systems. This perspective is reflected by

Richard Pascale

Chaos Theory and Organizational Crises.Sensitive Dependence on Initial Conditions

It is often because of a sensitive slight detail but vastly different way.

ValuJet Flight 592

Unpredictability in the Long Run

Chaos Theory and Organizational Crises.

Chaos Theory and Organizational Crises.Bifurcations

Chaos Theory and Organizational Crises.Attractor

Red river valley flood

Chaos Theory and Organizational Crises.Nonlinear

Chaos Theory and Organizational Crises.Feedback

Chaos Theory and Organizational Crises.Self-Organization

Red river valley flood

Implications for Research and Management.From a research perspective, chaos

theory offers an alternate framework for analyzing organizational crisis, one that can

be used to supplement traditional (i.e., linear) perspectives as a useful tool when complex phenomena such as crisis events

are analyzed.

1. Little things do matter in relation to an organizational crisis.

2. Long-term predictions of future crises are difficult to make, but short-term predictions are more feasible and necessary for crisis vulnerability assessment.

next-

Implications for Research and Management.

3. Bifurcations represent key turning point whereby the crisis can be brought

under control or can escalate out of control. Management's responsibility is

important.

4. There are hidden patterns (i.e., attractors) in almost everything, including

the causes of a crisis and the way it is managed.

5. A certain amount of order and disorder is natural and even healthy for the organization.

next-

Implications for Research and Management.

6. Finding the cause of a crisis may be more difficult than originally

anticipated. Isolating a single cause for every crisis is neither practical nor

appropriate.

7. The concept of positive feedback in chaos theory is not a good thing. Negative feedback helps keep the

organization at equilibrium.

8. Whether management realizes it or not, the organization is changing

constantly.

Limitations of the Use of Chaos Theory

1. Chaos theory has been overly enthusiastically endorsed as a "cure-all" in organizational research applications.

2. There are some significant semantic misunderstandings of the word chaos.

3. The inability to forecast long-term events does not mean standard operating procedures and strategic planning should be abandoned.