Changing subnational fertility trends in England and Wales

Nicola Tromans, Dr Julie Jefferies and Eva Natamba

Fertility Analysis Unit, ONS Centre for Demography

Dr Paul Norman School of Geography, University of Leeds

Paul’s research has been funded by the ESRC's Understanding Population Trends and Processes programme (RES-163-25-0032)

Outline

1. National trends in fertility since 1986

2. Have these same trends occurred by region?

3. Fertility trends at LA level

4. Relationship between TFR and age patterns of fertility (LA level)

5. Insight into fertility trends within individual LAs • population subgroups which may influence fertility

Total Fertility Rate, 1986-2007 England and Wales

1.45

1.50

1.55

1.60

1.65

1.70

1.75

1.80

1.85

1.90

1.9519

86

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

To

tal f

ertil

ity r

ate

How have age patterns of fertility changed since 1986? (England and Wales)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Under 20 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40 and over

Age

Liv

e b

irth

s p

er 1

,000

wo

men

1986

2001

2007

Further changes in fertility trends since 1986 (England and Wales)

• Increased % of births occurring outside marriage

• 21 per cent of births in 1986• 44 per cent of births in 2007

• Increased % of births to women born outside the UK

• 12 per cent of births in 1986• 23 per cent of births in 2007

Do regional TFR trends differ from national trends?

TFR pattern for E&W evident for each region - All regions experience a record low TFR in either 2001 or 2002

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

To

tal

Fe

rtil

ity

Ra

te w

ith

in

Re

gio

ns

Regional TFRs England and Wales

Regional Trends - TFR

Regions exhibiting the highest and lowest TFRs

have varied

– Highest TFR• 1986-1993 North West, West Midlands, Wales• 1994-2006 West Midlands (1.96 in 2006)

– Lowest TFR• 1986-1990 London, North East, South East• 1990-1993 London• 1994-2005 North East• 2006 North East and South West (1.79)

Regional Trends – most fertile age group

• In 1986, the most fertile age group in all regions was 25-29

• By 2006 the most fertile age group increased to 30-34 in the East and all southern regions.

• fertility postponement in the south

Does the TFR trend at local authority level correspond with the national trend?

1986 2001 2006

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

To

tal F

ert

ilit

y R

ate

Distribution of local authority TFRs 1986, 2001, 2006

Which local authorities have the highest TFRs?

Number of times LA appeared in top 10 between 1986 and 2006 (inclusive)

Newham 21

Blackburn with Darwen UA 21

Luton UA 19

Bradford 19

Hackney and City of London 14

Oldham 14

Tower Hamlets 13

Rochdale 12

Pendle 9

Hyndburn 9

Which local authorities have the lowest TFRs?

Number of times LA appeared in bottom 10 between 1986 and 2006 (inclusive)

Cambridge 21

Durham 21

Oxford 20

Kensington and Chelsea 19

Camden 16

Hammersmith and Fulham 13

Brighton and Hove UA 12

Exeter 12

Bournemouth UA 7

Berwick-Upon-Tweed 6

How many local authorities experience older age patterns of fertility in 2006?

Peak age of fertility

Number of local authorities

1986 2001 2006

20-24 15 23 12

25-29 351 237 192

30-34 8 114 169

35-39 0 0 1 (Islington)

Relationship between TFR and age patterns of fertility (local authority level)

Do areas where the TFR is low have lower fertility at all ages when compared with areas where the TFR is high?

Mean ASFRs in LAs with highest TFR and LAs with lowest TFRs 2006

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Under20

20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40 andoverAge

Mean

nu

mb

er

of

live

bir

ths p

er

1,0

00 w

om

en

Low TFR 2006 High TFR 2006

Compared 50 LAs with lowest TFR and 50 LAs with highest TFR

An insight into fertility in individual

local authorities...

TFR trends in selected local authorities

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

2.2

2.4

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

To

tal F

ert

ility

Ra

te

Boston Exeter E&W Newham Blackburn With Darwen UA Cambridge

Cambridge – age patterns of fertility

TFR 1986 2001 2006

Cambridge 1.35 1.20 1.39

East (Region) 1.75 1.67 1.87

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Under 20 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40 andoverAge

Liv

e b

irth

s p

er

1,0

00

wo

men

1986 2006

Cambridge – Students

• Presence of HE institutions likely to affect fertility

• Students – lower fertility while studying

• Graduates – tend to enter motherhood later

• More noticeable where % of students in population is high

Cambridge - births to migrants

• 41% of births in 2006 were to mothers born outside UK

• England and Wales 22%

• Diverse range of countries including– 13% EU countries– 5% USA, Canada, Australia or New Zealand

How do international migrants affect fertility levels?

• No clear cut relationship between %births to non-UK born mothers and level of fertility in an area– considerable variation in fertility levels of women from

different countries of birth

• Birth registration does not use detailed definition of ‘usual residence’

• Short term migrants not included in population estimates– 12 month definition of ‘usual residence’

Key findings – fertility patterns since 1986

1. National TFR patterns are reflected at the regional level - not always mirrored at LA level

2. In 1986, all regions experienced peak fertility at ages 25-29. By 2006 the south had increased to 30-34

3. LAs with relatively high TFRs display much higher fertility at younger reproductive ages

4. LAs with relatively low TFRs have an older age pattern for childbearing

5. Population subgroups such as students, graduates and migrants can impact upon period fertility in LAs.

Nicola.Tromans@ons.gov.uk