January 2019 ~ 1

Peel’s Economic Bulletin

Higher Inflation and Rising Interest Rates Creating Higher Cost Environment

Economic Growth, Higher Employment and Lower Unemployment RatesGDP Employment Unemployment Rates

6.3% 5.8%

6.0% 5.6%

18.65M Jobs (1.9%)

7.24M

CANADA 3.0% 2.2%

ONTARIO 2.8% 2.1%

2017 2018F 2018 2017 2018Growth in Global Output

3.7% 20173.7% 2018F

Growing Population, Increasing Employment and Lower Unemployment RatePopulation with

undercount - Q3 2018

1.48 Million

+1.3%Over 50% of the total population are immigrants

Total Labour Force Forecast

- 2018

896,000

+2.7%Residents working

and looking for work is expanding

Employed Labour Force Forecast

- 2018

838,000

+3.1%Residents who are

successful in finding work is increasing

IMPLICATION: More Peel residents are finding jobs, but due to the rise in precarious type employment, there may not be the expected reduction in demand for Regional services.

Peel's Unemployment Rates is Trending Downward

Source: IMF & StatsCan

Source: StatsCan Source: Bank of Canada

Source: StatsCan

Jobs (1.8%)

IMPLICATION: It is a positive environment for local economic growth.

IMPLICATION: Residents and businesses will face a higher cost environment.

APPENDIX ITHE CHANGING ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT AND IMPLICATIONS FOR PEEL REVISED

Source: Peel Data Centre Source: Peel Finance

IMPLICATION: The changing nature of employment is contributing to the shift in Regional revenues from non-residential

tax revenue to residential tax revenue.

January 2019 ~ 2

Peel’s Economic Bulletin

Slower Rate of Job Creation in Peel

Businesses without employees

Growing Business Sector that is Employing Less People

Share of Tax Burden Shifting from Non-Residential to Residential

Number of Business Establishments in Peel

Large business

Medium business

Small business

67.8%

Proportional Distribution of Business Establishments in Peel

June 2018

57.3% 0.1%40.7% 1.8%

Source: StatsCan

IMPLICATION: Business establishments without-employees leading growth signifies that employment in Peel will likely continue to fall below target.

June 2014

30.9% 1.2% 0.1%

Sustained Changes in the Economic Environment and Emerging Risks

Population is growing and aging

Changing Work Preferences

Climate ChangeTechnological Advancement

Increased trade uncertainties between the US & China

Elevated Risk of economic

downturn

APPENDIX ITHE CHANGING ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT AND IMPLICATIONS FOR PEEL REVISED