D E PA R T M E N T O F C H E M I S T R Y

S I M O N F R A S E R U N I V E R S I T Y

Changes in Sight: Limits of Growth, Climate Change and

Extreme Weather Phenomena

Thomas KadykEngineering Scientist, Postdoc @ SFU

Group of Michael Eikerling

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Winemaking

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Growing of the Yeast

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0 min 1 min 2 min

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Growing of the Yeast

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0 10 20 30 40 50 600

2E+017

4E+017

6E+017

8E+017

1E+018

1.2E+018

Time [min]

Num

ber o

f yea

st c

ells

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0 10 20 30 40 50 600

2E+017

4E+017

6E+017

8E+017

1E+018

1.2E+018

Time [min]

Num

ber o

f yea

st c

ells

/ u

nits

of s

ugar

Sugar Content

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sugar content

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Alcohol Poisoning the Yeast

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0 10 20 30 40 50 600.0E+00

5.0E+07

1.0E+08

1.5E+08

2.0E+08

2.5E+08

3.0E+08

3.5E+08

4.0E+08

4.5E+08

Time [min]

Num

ber o

f Yea

st C

ells

/ a

lcoh

ol u

nits

Alcohol content (poison)

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Carbon Dioxide Residence Time

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Projections into the Future

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Uncertainties

• Measured valuex = 1

• Modellingy = 10x = 10

z = y3 = 1000

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Uncertainties

• Measured valuex = 1 ± 0.1 = 0.9 … 1 … 1.1

• Modellingy = 10x = 7.9 … 10 … 12.6

z = y3 = 501 … 1000 … 1995

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Temperature, Sea Level and Snow Cover

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Past Sea Level vs. Temperature

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Long-term effect

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Sea Level Risks – U.S. East Coast

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globalwarmingart.comNASA SRTM data

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Sea Level Risks – Southeast Asia

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globalwarmingart.comNASA SRTM data

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Sea Level Risks – Middle East

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globalwarmingart.comNASA SRTM data

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Sea Level Risks – North Sea

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globalwarmingart.comNASA SRTM data

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Arctic Sea Ice

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1979 2007

NASA

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Arctic Sea Ice

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Sorteberg, Bjeknes Centre for Climate Research and University Center at Svalbard, Norway.

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Albedo

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% o

f rad

iatio

n re

flect

ed

Hugo Ahlenius,UNEP/GRID-Arendal

• Positive feedback loop

• Arctic is warming twice as much as global average

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Permafrost in the Northern Hemisphere

2012/06/13Hugo Ahlenius (2007), UNEP/GRID-Arendal

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Carbon Content

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Schuur et al., UNEP, CDIAC.Tarnocai (2009) Global Biogeochem Cycles 23, GB2023

in billion tonnes

≈50% of global belowground organic carbon pool

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Increase in Extremes

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• changes in extremes can be linked to changes in mean, variability and/or shape of probability distributions

• changing climate leads to changes in– frequency– intensity– spatial extent– duration– timing

of extreme weather and climate events

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Droughts

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Annual Vol. Soil Moisture trend 1950-2000

[%/y]Sheffield and Wood (2008) J Climate 21, 432

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Droughts

• Positive feedback loops– less moisture in soil → less heat loss from evaporation +

fewer clouds– vegetation dries out → more fires → release of CO2

• Globally, since the 1970s, droughts are getting longer and more widespread

• Heatwaves have become slightly hotter and more frequency

• Combination of droughts and heatwaves especially dangerous

• Drought projections not very accurate because they rely on uncertain precipitation projections2012/06/13

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Hard to Assess and Predict

• e.g.– El Niño, monsoons, tropical and extratropical cyclons– Rain and precipitation, Flooding, Winds

• Extreme events are rare– few data available

• Confidence in observed changes in extremes depends on quality, quantity and availability of analysis of data

• Low confidence in observed changes neither implies nor excludes the possibility of changes!

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Summary and Conclusions

• Nonlinear growth – hard to imagine

• Climate is very complex with dangerous positive

feedback loops

• Complexity and nonlinearities lead to high

uncertainty

• Uncertainty neither good nor bad

• Action chosen according to what is at risk (= a lot)

• Can we afford to be optimistic?

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Literature

• IPCC (2007) 4th Assessment Report• IPCC (2012) Managing the risks of extreme

evens and disasters to advance climate change adaption (SREX)

• IPCC (2012) Renewable energy sources and climate change mitigation (SREEN)

• PIRC (2012) Climate Factsheets, www.pirc.info , climatesafety.org

• PIRC (2008) Climate Safety, www.pirc.info, climatesafety.org

• WWF (2012) Living Planet Report 2012• http://ourchangingclimate.wordpress.com• http://climate.nasa.gov/• http://www.skepticalscience.com/

free online courses:• http://forecast.uchicago.edu/lectures.html• https://www.e-education.psu.edu/

geosc10/

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