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9/30/2019 Greta Thunberg & the economics of global warming: A delayed response to climate change is an economic catastrophe waiting to happe…
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HURRY!By , ET Bureau | Updated: Sep 28, 2019, 07.37 PM IST
AP
Greta Thunberg’s impassioned address in New York was well received, but it remains to be seen if the alarmist tone of
her speech would rouse politicians and business leaders into action.
RelatedPriyanka Chopra thanks GretaThunberg for 'much-needed punchin the face'; Rohit Sharma calls heran inspiration
Donald Trump tries trolling GretaThunberg's climate speech faces
Greta Thunberg & the economics of globalwarming: A delayed response to climatechange is an economic catastrophe waitingto happenA recent study by researchers at Stanford University has identified the optimal annualtemperature for economic productivity.
With mercury levels on the rise, climate changeunbelievers will find it hard to challenge the gospel ofThunberg – a bleak narrative that fuses science,rhetoric and outrage to deliver radical prescriptionsaimed at lowering the temperature of a feverishplanet.
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9/30/2019 Greta Thunberg & the economics of global warming: A delayed response to climate change is an economic catastrophe waiting to happe…
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You have stolen my dreams and childhood, GretaThunberg tells UN
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Greta Thunberg climate speech
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On August 28, a pale, 16-year-old girl in a blackwindcheater stepped off the gangplank at New York’sNorth Cove Marina - a pint-sized silhouette against thebackdrop of the Statue of Liberty. Accompanied by herfather, Greta Thunberg had spent two weeks at sea,crossing the Atlantic on a 60-foot racing yacht owned bythe royal family of Monaco. The royal steed, which iszero-emissions compliant, made the crossing during thehurricane season by harnessing wind, solar, and hydro
power.
A scrum of people gathered along the hem of the lower Manhattan waterfront, waving atthe Swedish teenager, who in the space of a year, had gone from being an awkwardschoolgirl with social anxiety, to a messianic figurehead for climate change - a crossbetween Joan of Arc and John the Baptist.
Thunberg’s anger-laden speeches have helped rally troops in her inter-generational battlewith climate change deniers, a demographic she accuses of “stealing her dreams”. But atthe United Nations General Assembly - the seat of global power- her apocalypticprophecies seem to have fallen on deaf ears. U.S. President Donald Trump lampoonedher impassioned address, calling her a "very happy young girl looking forward to a brightand wonderful future”.
On Fox News, the conservative pundit Michael Knowles chided Thunberg’s parents,accusing them of being in cahoots with vested interests. “The climate hysteria movementis not about science. If it were about science it would be led by scientists rather than bypoliticians and a mentally ill Swedish child who is being exploited by her parents and byth i t ti l l ft " K l id
Donald J. Trump@realDonaldTrump
She seems like a very happy young girl looking forward to a bright and wonderful future. So nice to see! twitter.com/WIRED/status/1…
WIRED @WIRED”People are suffering, people are dying, entire ecosystems are collapsing. We are in the beginning of a mass extinction and all you can talk about is money and fairytales of eternal economic growth.” Watch Greta Thunberg speak at the UN Monday morning. wired.trib.al/VXdAnKt
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9/30/2019 Greta Thunberg & the economics of global warming: A delayed response to climate change is an economic catastrophe waiting to happe…
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/magazines/panache/greta-thunberg-the-economics-of-global-warming-a-delayed-response-to-climate-change-i… 3/29
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the international left," Knowles said.
However, many liberal politicians and celebrities, the likes of Leonardo DiCaprio andPriyanka Chopra, have sided with the Swedish teenager, lauding her fearless approach atconfronting the reality of climate change.
Thunberg is a polarizing figure, and her views on climate change, extreme. Scientificliterature on the subject shows that irreversible ecological changes are afoot, and that thesymptoms of anthropogenic pollution are beginning to manifest on a warming planet. Thetelltale signs are clear. Sea levels have been rising at unprecedented rates, cyclonicstorms and earthquakes are becoming more frequent, and the earth’s average surfacetemperature has steadily shot up over the past century.
With mercury levels on the rise, climate change unbelievers will find it hard to challengethe gospel of Thunberg – a bleak narrative that fuses science, rhetoric and outrage todeliver radical prescriptions aimed at lowering the temperature of a feverish planet.According to data compiled by S&P Global Platts, Iraq produced a record 4.88 billionbarrels per day (bpd) in August, even as U.S., the top crude producer, increasedproduction to compensate for unmet demand following drone strikes Saudi Aramco’s oilfacilities.
India has been ambivalent on its energy policy, committing to a renewable future, whilststill relying on coal to meet the lion’s share of its power demands. India is the secondlargest consumer of coal globally, agead of developed countries like the US, Japan andSouth Korea. A few days before he made a pledge to double India’s non-fossil fuel targetto 450 gigawatts at the United Nations, Prime Minister Narendra Modi mediated a dealbetween India’s Petronet and the US energy company Tellurian for the import of up to 5million tonnes per annum (5 mtpa) of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from America.
PRIYANKA@priyankachopra
Thank you @gretathunberg for giving us the much needed punch in the face, for bringing your generation together and showing us that we need to know better, do more to save what is most critical. At the end of the day, we only have this one planet. #HowDareYou twitter.com/GretaThunberg/…
Greta Thunberg @GretaThunberg“Right here, right now is where we draw the line. The world is waking up. And change is coming, whether you like it or not.”My full speech in United Nations General Assembly. #howdareyou youtu.be/v33ro5lGHQg
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9/30/2019 Greta Thunberg & the economics of global warming: A delayed response to climate change is an economic catastrophe waiting to happe…
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/magazines/panache/greta-thunberg-the-economics-of-global-warming-a-delayed-response-to-climate-change-i… 4/29
However, in the short term, such developments seem justified. A sudden transition torenewable energy could precipitate an economic slowdown, given the energy demands ofdeveloping countries have not marched lockstep with investment in renewableinfrastructure. But for businesses holding out to change in the hope of a pyrrhic victory, theconsequences can be far reaching.
Source: Marshall Burke, Solomon M. Hsiang, Edward Miguel, “Global non-linear effect of temperature on economicproduction,” Nature.
A recent study by researchers at Stanford University has identified the optimal annualtemperature for economic productivity: 13 degrees Celsius or 55.4 degrees Fahrenheit.While seasonal changes in weather can shift the scales to either side of capitalism’sambient temperature, a change in the fulcrum could affect economic output drastically. Theeconomic model, which was published in the scientific journal Nature, found that thispattern held true in more than 150 countries, impacting the lives of rich and poor alike forthe better part of a century.
Moreover, it expects average global incomes to fall by 25 percent come 2100. SiliconValley yuppies, working in insulated air-conditioned offices, will see a downward correctionin their wages, as will corn farmers, toiling in parched fields on the other side of Trump’sproposed border wall with Mexico. The study, conducted by Stanford economist MarshallBurke and his colleagues, took into account data from 166 countries. The average annualtemperature of each country was identified from 1960 and 2010, and compared with itseconomic performance.
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9/30/2019 Greta Thunberg & the economics of global warming: A delayed response to climate change is an economic catastrophe waiting to happe…
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/magazines/panache/greta-thunberg-the-economics-of-global-warming-a-delayed-response-to-climate-change-i… 5/29
Source: Marshall Burke, Solomon M. Hsiang, Edward Miguel, “Global non-linear effect of temperature on economicproduction,” Nature.
By juxtaposing the data points for warm years with that of normal years, the response ofindividual economies to changes in the temperature were gauged. It was found that 13C,in Burke’s words, “is really good at producing stuff around the world.” In countries wherethe average annual temperature is less than 13C, global warming might prove beneficialfor the economy. On the contrary, for equatorial countries like India, any increase intemperature may cause a spike in sunscreen sales, but a dip in demand for othercommodities, with economic growth slipping by as much as 25 per cent of the level itwould’ve attained without climate change. The early indicators of climate change can beseen in the agriculture sector, with irregular rains and draughts wiping out crops andravaging rural economies.
However, the reasons for the adverse economic impact on white collar jobs remainuncertain. Burke et al investigated the socioeconomic and health effects of a rise intemperature, and the findings were bleak. Violent crime would increase, as would heartdisease. The biological clock would also need winding, with the quantity and quality ofsleep taking a toll on productivity.
A 2008 study published in the National Bureau of Economic Research journal drew alinear correlation between temperature and economic output, concluding that the burden ofclimate change will be felt more by poor countries, since coincidentally, most of them arelocated in geographies with warmer climes. Burke’s study, however, does not concur.While it does maintain that productivity dips with rise in temperature, it holds that richcountries will also have to bear the financial brunt of unmitigated climate change.
Source: Marshall Burke, Solomon M. Hsiang, Edward Miguel, “Global non-linear effect of temperature on economicproduction,” Nature.
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9/30/2019 Greta Thunberg & the economics of global warming: A delayed response to climate change is an economic catastrophe waiting to happe…
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/magazines/panache/greta-thunberg-the-economics-of-global-warming-a-delayed-response-to-climate-change-i… 6/29
The average annual temperature in G7 countries, like the US, China, and Germanyalready hover around the 13C cliff, so a further increase in temperature could slow downtheir economies. Burke’s study found that 77 per cent of all countries could end up poorerby 2100 if global warming went unchecked. The extant research, which is based oncreating integrate assessment models (IAMs), has found its way to the United StatesCongress, where policy decisions on the ‘social cost of carbon’ have cited older models,which Burke reckons, are off the mark “by several hundred percent.”
Greta Thunberg’s impassioned address in New York was well received, but it remains tobe seen if the alarmist tone of her speech would rouse politicians and business leadersinto action, given that their decisions are based on a pragmatic economic considerations.The transition to renewable energy has indeed been slow, but Burke’s research ought toserve as a reminder to all stakeholders that a delayed response to climate change is aneconomic catastrophe that is waiting to happen.
Thunberg, who accused governments of advancing the interests of oil companies, is notreturning home immediately. She will travel overland to Chile to attend a United NationsSummit in December, spreading the gospel of climate change in the Americas, along theway. Incidentally, the two-member crew that sailed her to the US aboard a zero-emissionyacht took a return flight from New York.
Transatlantic voyages are not for everybody - especially, not DiCaprio. Climate changecould, however, render air travel and other comforts we now take for granted, relics froman age of indulgence. “The eyes of all future generations are upon you. And if you chooseto fail us, I say, we will never forgive you. We will not let you get away with this. Right here,right now is where we draw the line,” Thunberg said in a televised address. We are allwitnesses.
