Challenges in the Supply Chain for Advanced · PDF file · 2017-03-14Challenges in the Supply Chain for Advanced Materials Mark Thirsk . ... Source: Gargini – ITRS 2.0 : International

www.linx-consulting.com

Challenges in the Supply Chain

for Advanced Materials Mark Thirsk

[email protected] +1 617 273 8837

mailto:[email protected]




2

Linx Consulting Service Portfolio • Multi-Client Reports

– IC Materials • CMP • Deposition • Patterning • Cleaning • Gases

– III-Vs, TSV, WLP, Solar

• Proprietary Projects – Market Planning – M & A – Growth and Diversification – Supply Chain Optimization – Technology Commercialization – Strategic Planning – Voice of the Customer

• Econometric Semiconductor Forecast – Financial planning – Sales and Operational planning – Forecasting

Hilltop Economics LLC

• Cost Modeling – Client demand modeling – Product development – Bill of Materials quantification

IC Knowledge, LLC

– Semi – LCD

– Packaging – PV

– Nano Technology – LED/ Compound Semi

Semicon Techxpot 2016


3

The Development of Computing

1.00E+00

1.00E+03

1.00E+06

1.00E+09

1.00E+12

1.00E+15

1.00E+18

1.00E+21

1.00E+24

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

FLOPS Apple


Serialized human thought

Real Time Single Brain Simulation

2 Week Weather Forecast

7 Bn Human Brains

Folding@home

Watson

GPUs

Core i7

FLOPS


4

Apple Mobile GPU Computing Power

2.00E+06

2.00E+07

2.00E+08

2.00E+09

2.00E+10

2.00E+11

GPU FLOPS



5

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

75,000

70,000

65,000

60,000

55,000

50,000

45,000

40,000

35,00094 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

Semi MSIWorld Real GDP (Rt Scale)

Million Square Inches Billion 2010 US$

93-15Q495% correlation

MSI Multiple: 2.1X

Silicon Follows GDP Closely

1.0X

2.4X

Semicon Techxpot 2016 Source: Hilltop Economics


6

Real Investment Critical for Silicon Demand

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,00094 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

SEMI MSIReal Investment, 44 Consensus Countries

Million Square Inches Billion 2010 US$

93-15Q396% correlation

MSI Multiple: 1.67X

Semicon Techxpot 2016 Source: Hilltop Economics


7

Electronic System Growth Drivers • Internet of Things

– Much hyped driver of billions of networked devices generating information for governmental, commercial, consumer, medical, and other information systems

• Virtual Reality – Creation of virtual displays of real and simulated environments for

military, consumer, commercial and other applications, usually through a novel head display

• Artificial Intelligence – Computer based intelligent learning systems

• Autonomous Vehicles – Sensor systems supporting vehicle based computer systems

offering various degrees of driver assistance including fully autonomous driverless vehicles.



8

The Internet of Things


Smart Drugs

VR VR VR

Data from sensors processed and transmitted. Actuators and systems to implement smart networks and systems. Computers and smart mobile devices act as interfaces and hubs. Billions of devices over the next 10 years. Revenue derived from data services. The majority of wafer demand will be in older technology, supported by web or cloud based data services.

A computer does not know everything it needs to.

Sensor change what a computer can know.

Added sensors create new businesses


9

Virtual Reality

0

40

80

120

AvgGaming

PC

High EndGaming

PC

4KGaming

PC

StereoVR

Comparative Display Complexity


Baseline ~ 2 Mpixels

0

40

80

120

160

200

AvgGaming

PC

HighEnd

GamingPC

4KGaming

PC

StereoVR

MHz

Comparative Refresh Rate

Mpixels


10

Artificial Intelligence • AI Research to develop machine based

learning and intelligence.

• Deep learning to speed search and machine based speech and image recognition.

• Significant processing power either in local or cloud based settings.

• AI systems will need significant local or web based processing power.


Google Big Sur


11

Autonomous Vehicle Control



12

IOT Cloud compute

Communications Distributed Devices

Logic Memory Analog

Modems

Virtual Reality Computational

Power Graphics

Logic / Graphics Memory Analog

Artificial Intelligence

Computational Power

Logic Memory

Autonomous Vehicles

Computational Power

Sensor devices Distributed Devices

Logic / Graphics Analog Power

Sensors

Electronic System Growth Drivers Growth Drivers

Driver Need Impact



13

ROADMAP TRENDS



14

Equivalent Scaling Continues

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

0510152025303540Nominal Node (nm)

CPP x MMP (nm2)

Company A Company B Company C


Source: IC Knowledge


15

Beyond Moore



16

ITRS 2.0

Geometric Scaling, 1975 - 2003

Equivalent Scaling, 2004 - 2020

3D Power Scaling, 2021 - ?

Reduction of horizontal and vertical physical dimensions, combined with improved performance of planar transistors.

Reduction of horizontal dimensions only, introduction of new materials, and new physical effects. Vertical structures replace the planar transistor.

Transition to vertical device structures. Heterogeneous integration with reduced power consumption.

Source: Gargini – ITRS 2.0 Semicon Techxpot 2016


17

ITRS 2.0


Source: Gargini – ITRS 2.0

International Roadmap for Devices and Systems


18

MARKET DRIVERS FOR MATERIALS



19

Materials Universe


0

20

40

60

80

100%

SEMI

PR ancillaries

CMP

Wafers

Photoresist

Deposition

Etch and Clean

Photomasks

Bulk gases

Spec. gases

$22B

SAT

Ceramic package

Plastic substrates

Lead frames &wires

Encapsulants

Gases & chemicalsDie attach& underfill

Bonding Wire

$25B

PWB

Chemicals& gases

Solders,flux &pastes

Metalization

Substrates

Resists,ancillaries &

masks

$14B

FPD

Photoresists and ancillariesMetalization

Substrates

Gases

Liquid crystalsOther

Wet Chemicals

Light management films

$39B

LED

Gases

Liquid Sources

Wafers

Wet Chemicals

Die Attach

CMP

PV

GasesWet Chemicals

Encapsulants

Glasssubstrates

Backsheets

Metals

Wafers

Saw wire

Pastes

Slurry

$13B Total = $115.3B

Encapsulants

SEMI IC Semiconductors SAT Semi assembly and test PWB Printed Wiring Boards FPD Flat Panel display LED Light Emitting Diodes PV Photovoltaics


20

Q4 2015 Silicon Capacity

0

100

200

300

Analog

MixedSignal

Other

Discrete

Other

Diode

Power

Foundry

Dedicated

IDM

System LSI

Logic

MPU

MCU

Other

System LSI

Opto

Memory

Flash

DRAM

DRAM&Flash

Flash-3D NAND

MSI / Month

Source: semi, Linx Consulting



21

Silicon Demand – 2015 MSI

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

MSI

>1 1 0.8 0.5 0.35 0.25 0.18 0.13 0.09 0.045 0.032 0.022 0.01x

Total = 9,562.4

0.065

Logic 200AnalogDiscreteMPULogic 300DRAM2D NAND3DNAND



22

Linx Materials Index


$0.60

$0.65

$0.70

$0.75

$0.80

$0.85

$0.90

$0.95

$1.00

$1.05

$1.10

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

$/sqin

Volume slowdown ASP decline

Process complexity Modest growth

Process simplification Modest growth


23

Technology Driven Material Cost


$0.02 $0.27

$1.15

$2.25

$2.94 $3.23

$-

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

Discrete200mm

Analog200mm

Logic200mm

16nmNAND300mm

20nmLogic

300mm

20nmDRAM300mm

$/sqin Bill of Materials

Source: Linx, IC Knowledge


24

3D NAND BOM Forecast


$0.00

$0.01

$0.01

$0.02

$0.02

$0.03

$0.03

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

16nm 2D 48L 3D 64L 3D

GB/mm2 $/sqin Wet strip chemicalsWet etch chemicalsWet clean chemicalsSpin-onReticlesPVD targetsPlating chemicalsLithography materialsImplant sourcesDry etch gasesCVD precursorsCMP consumablesBulk gasesAnneal gasesALDDensity GB/mm2

Bulk Gases

Litho

Reticles

Litho



25

Logic BOM Forecast


$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

45nm 32nm 22nm 14nm 10nm

$/sqin Wet etch chemicalsWet clean chemicalsSpin-onReticlesPVD targetsPlating chemicalsMonitor wafersLithography materialsImplant sourcesDry etch gasesCVD precursorsCMP consumablesBulk gasesAnneal gasesALDWet strip chemicals

CMP

Litho

Reticles



26

Lithography Extension Options

Res

olut

ion

Def

ectiv

ity

Thro

ughp

ut

Ove

rlay

LWR

Insp

ectio

n

Mas

k

EUV +++ ++ + +++ + ++ ++

DSA +++ + +++ ++ ++ + +++


After Sematech

• Patterning will combine the best technologies to solve cost and capability challenges

• EUV struggling to achieve maturity for 7nm, but may be implemented in later designs. • EUV targeted for 5nm logic cut and critical masks. • Introduction will require multiple ancillary materials for patterning stacks

• DSA still needs development of experience and ecosystem, but vias and contacts are

preferred entry points.


27

EUV Photoresist Forecast

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

kgals

DeviceDrivenToolDriven

EUV demand scenarios • Device driven by analysis of lithography

pitches and layer counts derived from real-world device analysis.

– This demand scenario exists without constraints of equipment capability, or supply chain limitations.

• Tool shipment demand scenario can be

driven off EUV exposure tool availability, and tool capability.



28

FEOL • STI Extension

– Vacuum based deposition – Improved spin-on material – Ge epitaxial deposition

• RMG

– Novel work function and barrier precursors – Novel spacer (oxide and nitride) precursors – Improved contact resistance

• Cleans

– Selective processes – Improved PRE with lower damage – Atomic layer processes

• Patterning

– Multiple new materials for EUV


Planar

Gate All Around

Fin


29

BEOL


New lkd Precursors Si containing porogens

Air Gap

New barrier stacks ALD Ta & TaN TiN CuMn MnN Ru

New liner materials Co Ru NiSi

Improved ECD additives

Selective cap deposition

Improved sealing layers

CVD flowfill Cu

Silyl based lkd repair materials

Subtractive etch of Copper

Spin-on lkd materials

CVD Cobalt fill


30

3D Crosspoint Array


PCM (Phase Change Memory)

OTS (Ovonic Threshold Switch)

(Intel 2009 publication)

New Material Dep, Etch, Clean, Passivation

Source: Ping - AMAT


31

Novel Challenges in Packaging • Fan Out Hybrid WLP being

aggressively pursued. • Panel molding resins needed:

– Low T cure – Matched CTE – Stable for reflow

• Photosensitive Dielectrics – Aqueous develop – Low CTE – Low cure Temp – Cheap

• Move to high resolution RDL, with

interposerless designs, with die-first and die-last options.

– Close to waferfab BEOL processes


>100 10 1

Wafer Level BEOL

Wafer / Interposer RDL

PCB RDL

Si TSV Interposer

FCBGA

Panel RDL / FO WLP

CSP / Fan-In

Wafer Fab OSAT

µm

Source: Fraunhofer Inst.


32

Silicon Demand – 2019 MSI

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

MSI

>1 1 0.8 0.5 0.25 0.13 0.045 0.032 0.022 0.01x 0.001

Total = 12,097.6

0.35 0.18

Logic 200AnalogDiscreteMPULogic 300DRAM2D NAND3DNAND



33

Worldwide Wafer Fab Materials Forecast US$ Millions 2015 2016 2017 2020 CAGR

2015 to ‘20 ALD $274 $359 $472 $895 27%

CVD $1,049 $1,289 $1,499 $1,947 13%

PVD $677 $704 $792 $830 4%

Plating $174 $192 $227 $305 12%

Spin On Dielectrics $443 $572 $695 $712 10%

Pads and Slurries $1,825 $1,930 $2,093 $2,191 4%

Wet Chemicals $2,275 $2,358 $2,491 $2,584 3%

Lithography Materials $2,701 $2,947 $3,505 $4,150 9%

Etchant Gases $217 $232 $249 $306 7%

Dopant Gases $234 $243 $253 $285 4%

Litho Gases $128 $158 $194 $320 20%

Bulk Gases $1,344 $1,419 $1,500 $1,751 5%

Total (Direct Mats) $11,343 $12,404 $13,971 $16,274 7%



34

Chemical Quality and Defectivity for 10m Direct control of raw material quality • Close sub supplier collaboration and integrated quality systems • Vertical integration where possible

Holistic approach to particle control • State-of-the-art filtration optimized for each chemical • Optimized in-line, on wafer, and off-line particle and defectivity monitoring

Advanced statistical process control • Feed forward and feedback SPC • Sophisticated analytical tools

Design for cost and environmental impact • Aqueous and environmentally friendly formulations are preferred • Limit the use of custom constituents and additives



35

Supplier Landscape China • Continued acquisition and activity from

multiple companies. • Leveraged government equity positions

to enable significant size acquisitions.

Acquisition Landscape • Tsinghua Unigroup (China): Spreadtrum,

RDA, WD, Powetech….. • Lam Research – KLA/Tencor • Beijing E-Town Investment (China) –

Mattson Technology Materials • KMG - OMG + General Chemical • Entegris - ATMI • Merck - AZ • Merck – Sigma Aldrich & Solmet • Wonik – Nova-Kem • NATA (China) - Kempur • Air Liquide – Air Gas • Air Products – Versum Spinout • SK - OCIM • Dow Chemical – Dow Corning • Dow Chemical - Dupont



36

Material Scaling Trends • Equivalent Scaling

– Cost of litho exploding

– CMP enabling processes and surfaces

– Implant enabling surface modification

• Carbon implant • Silicon Implant • LER modification

• 3D Scaling – CVD and Etch will be the key

processes • Aspect ratio • Vertical wall angles • Conformal coverage

– Litho reliance relaxed, but

interconnect density challenging

– Collapse control driving use of surface modification and supercritical rinses and drying



37

Conclusions • Drivers for industry growth are changing, but there will continued demand for current device

types

• Roadmap trends will drive to 3D device architectures in the medium to long term. System specific hybrid packages, device types, and device architectures will extend the roadmap.

• New device architectures will shift requirements of critical materials for different devices. – Lithography extension is a primary cost driver. – 3D devices will challenge aspect ratios, placing focus on etch and deposition

capabilities.

• The shift from planar scaling to 3D will extend into the packaging realm as some functionality and interconnect is moved into the wafer level package.

• Quality and defectivity requirements continue to be incredibly challenging, and require supply chain engagement.


Documents

Challenges in the Supply Chain for Advanced · PDF file · 2017-03-14Challenges in the Supply Chain for Advanced Materials Mark Thirsk . ... Source: Gargini – ITRS 2.0 : International