7/28/2019 Ch04Ex1

1/15

Forecasting Moving averages - 3 period moving average

Data Forecasts and Error Analysis

Period Demand Forecast Error Absolute Squared

January 10

February 12

March 13

April 16 11.67 4.33 4.33 18.78

May 19 13.67 5.33 5.33 28.44

June 23 16.00 7.00 7.00 49.00

July 26 19.33 6.67 6.67 44.44

August 30 22.67 7.33 7.33 53.78

September 28 26.33 1.67 1.67 2.78

October 18 28.00 -10.00 10.00 100.00

November 16 25.33 -9.33 9.33 87.11December 14 20.67 -6.67 6.67 44.44

Total 6.33 58.33 428.78

Average 0.70 6.48 47.64

Bias MAD MSE

SE 7.83

Next period 16

CHAPTER 4: Example 1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1 2 3 4 5

Value

Foreca

Demand

7/28/2019 Ch04Ex1

2/15

Abs Pct Err

27.08%

28.07%

30.43%

25.64%

24.44%

05.95%

55.56%

58.33%47.62%

303.13%

33.68%

MAPE

6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Time

sting

Forecast

7/28/2019 Ch04Ex1

3/15

Forecasting Weighted moving averages - 3 period moving average

Data Forecasts and Error Analysis

Period Demand Weights Forecast Error Absolute

January 10 1

February 12 2

March 13 3

April 16 12.17 3.83 3.83

May 19 14.33 4.67 4.67

June 23 17.00 6.00 6.00

July 26 20.50 5.50 5.50

August 30 23.83 6.17 6.17

September 28 27.50 0.50 0.50

October 18 28.33 -10.33 10.33

November 16 23.33 -7.33 7.33

December 14 18.67 -4.67 4.67Total 4.33 49.00

Average 0.48 5.44

Bias MAD

SE

Next period 15.33333333

CHAPTER 4: Example 2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1 2 3

Value

7/28/2019 Ch04Ex1

4/15

Squared Abs Pct Err

14.69 23.96%

21.78 24.56%

36.00 26.09%

30.25 21.15%

38.03 20.56%

0.25 01.79%

106.78 57.41%

53.78 45.83%

21.78 33.33%323.33 254.68%

35.93 28.30%

MSE MAPE

6.80

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Time

Forecasting

Demand Forecast

7/28/2019 Ch04Ex1

5/15

Forecasting Exponential smoothing

Alpha 0.1

Data Forecasts and Error Analysis

Quarter Demand Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err

1 180 175 5 5 25 02.78%

2 168 175.5 -7.5 7.5 56.25 04.46%

3 159 174.75 -15.75 15.75 248.06 09.91%

4 175 173.18 1.82 1.82 3.33 01.04%

5 190 173.36 16.64 16.64 276.97 08.76%

6 205 175.02 29.98 29.98 898.70 14.62%

7 180 178.02 1.98 1.98 3.92 01.10%

8 182 178.22 3.78 3.78 14.31 0.0207823

Total 35.96 82.46 1526.54 44.75%

Average 4.49 10.31 190.82 05.59%

Bias MAD MSE MAPESE 15.95

Next period 178.5958558

CHAPTER 4: Example 4 (alpha = 0.1)

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6/15

0

50

100

150

200

250

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Value

Time

Forecasting

Demand Forecast

7/28/2019 Ch04Ex1

7/15

Forecasting Exponential smoothing

Alpha 0.5

Data Forecasts and Error Analysis

Quarter Demand Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err

1 180 175 5 5 25 02.78%

2 168 177.5 -9.5 9.5 90.25 05.65%

3 159 172.75 -13.75 13.75 189.06 08.65%

4 175 165.88 9.13 9.13 83.27 05.21%

5 190 170.44 19.56 19.56 382.69 10.30%

6 205 180.22 24.78 24.78 614.11 12.09%

7 180 192.61 -12.61 12.61 159.00 07.01%

8 182 186.30 -4.30 4.30 18.53 0.0236521

Total 18.30 98.63 1561.91 54.05%

Average 2.29 12.33 195.24 06.76%

Bias MAD MSE MAPESE 16.13

Next period 184.1523438

CHAPTER 4: Example 4 (alpha = 0.5)

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8/15

0

50

100

150

200

250

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Value

Time

Forecasting

180 175

7/28/2019 Ch04Ex1

9/15

Forecasting Exponential smoothing

Alpha 0.1

Data Forecasts and Error Analysis

Quarter Demand Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err

1 180 175 5 5 25 02.78%

2 168 175.5 -7.5 7.5 56.25 04.46%

3 159 174.75 -15.75 15.75 248.06 09.91%

4 175 173.18 1.82 1.82 3.33 01.04%

5 190 173.36 16.64 16.64 276.97 08.76%

6 205 175.02 29.98 29.98 898.70 14.62%

7 180 178.02 1.98 1.98 3.92 01.10%

8 182 178.22 3.78 3.78 14.31 0.0207823

Total 35.96 82.46 1526.54 44.75%

Average 4.49 10.31 190.82 05.59%

Bias MAD MSE MAPESE 15.95

Next period 178.5958558

CHAPTER 4: Example 5 (alpha = 0.1)

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10/15

0

50

100

150

200

250

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Value

Time

Forecasting

Demand Forecast

7/28/2019 Ch04Ex1

11/15

Forecasting Exponential smoothing

Alpha 0.1

Data Forecasts and Error Analysis

Quarter Demand Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err

1 180 175 5 5 25 02.78%

2 168 175.5 -7.5 7.5 56.25 04.46%

3 159 174.75 -15.75 15.75 248.06 09.91%

4 175 173.18 1.82 1.82 3.33 01.04%

5 190 173.36 16.64 16.64 276.97 08.76%

6 205 175.02 29.98 29.98 898.70 14.62%

7 180 178.02 1.98 1.98 3.92 01.10%

8 182 178.22 3.78 3.78 14.31 0.0207823

Total 35.96 82.46 1526.54 44.75%

Average 4.49 10.31 190.82 05.59%

Bias MAD MSE MAPESE 15.95

Next period 178.5958558

CHAPTER 4: Example 6 (alpha = 0.1)

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12/15

0

50

100

150

200

250

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Value

Time

Forecasting

Demand Forecast

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13/15

Forecasting Trend adjusted exponential smoothing

Alpha 0.2

Beta 0.4

Data Forecasts and Error Analysis

Period Demand

Pronstico

Suavizado,

Ft

Tendencia

Suavizada,

Tt

Pronstico

incluyendo

Tendencia,

FITt Error Absolute

Month 1 12 11 2 13 1 1

Month 2 17 12.80 1.92 14.72 4.20 4.20

Month 3 20 15.18 2.10 17.28 4.82 4.82

Month 4 19 17.82 2.32 20.14 1.18 1.18

Month 5 24 19.91 2.23 22.14 4.09 4.09

Month 6 21 22.51 2.38 24.89 -1.51 1.51

Month 7 31 24.11 2.07 26.18 6.89 6.89Month 8 28 27.14 2.45 29.59 0.86 0.86

Month 9 36 29.28 2.32 31.60 6.72 6.72

Next period 32.48 2.68 35.16

Total 28.24 31.27

Average 3.14 3.47

Bias MAD

SE

CHAPTER 4: Example 7

7/28/2019 Ch04Ex1

14/15

Squared Abs Pct Err

1 08.33%

17.64 24.71%

23.27 24.12%

1.39 06.20%

16.69 17.02%

2.29 07.21%

47.43 22.22%0.73 03.06%

45.21 0.186778056

155.66 131.54%

17.30 14.62%

MSE MAPE

4.715566015

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1 2 3 4 5 6

Value

Time

Forecasting

Demand Forecasts and Error Analysis

Pronstico incluyen

(FITt) con a = 0,20 y b

Demanda Real (At)

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15/15

7 8

do la tendencia

b = 0,40