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CERFACS:Christian PagéLaurent Terray
Météo-France:Philippe Dandin
Pascale DelecluseSerge Planton
Jean-Marc MoisselinMaryvonne Kerdoncuff
High resolution climate scenarios for hydrology in France
Climate change information services for decision making and adaptation Workshop
KNMI, De Bilt, Netherlands - 10-11 Sep 2009
CERFACS Météo-France 2/11
Description
Objective: Provide climate change scenarios data
• Vulnerability studies of human activities and environment
• Effects of climate change on flood regimes and droughts, on water resource management and land use, ...
Motivations: Quite rapid increase in the number of data requests in the last few years
Consequences: a more organized way of providing data to users is clearly needed
• Re-focus research teams on their main activity
CERFACS Météo-France 3/11
Example Use Case
EP-Loire project example
• Etablissement Public Loire (6 Regions, 16 Departments, 18 cities, etc.)
• Effects of climate change on flood regimes and droughts in the Loire River Basin
Stakeholders and basin managers
Data request
• Call of opportunity to the French scientific community
• Let climate research groups choose and provide climate change scenarios
• To be used by other research groups working in hydrology, sociology, ...
CERFACS Météo-France 4/11
Production
• Météo-France SAFRAN Regional re-analysis (1970-2007) (7 daily or hourly parameters, France 8-km resolution)
• Dynamical/statistical downscaling: Daily Temperature & Precipitation, 50-km
• Weather-type statistical downscaling: 7 daily/hourly parameters, 8-km
• Several SRES scenarios; several models (ARPEGE and IPCC); 1950-2100
What is provided to research groups: modelers and study teams
• Data in ASCII format
• Selection of data points over the Loire Basin, for present and future climate (1950-2100)
• Daily and hourly timestep (depending on specific modellers’ needs)
Example: EP-Loire Use Case
Reports from research groups will be delivered to stakeholders
CERFACS Météo-France 5/11
Examples of output in reports for stakeholders
Example: EP-Loire Use Case
Source: ReXHySS project preliminary results
Actual
2050
2100
Monthly Mean of Seine river flow
Actual
Obs
Seine river flow evolution uncertainties
Jan Dec
2050
2100
Hydrological models
Mean duration (months)
Area % of France
France Past Droughts
20
5
20 40
Source: Météo-France CLIMSEC projectCourtesy of J.-P. Vidal
CERFACS Météo-France 6/11
Current Status
Data requests are mostly done by phone calls and emails
• Data is mainly delivered through direct data transfer means (ftp, ...)
• Extraction is not fully automated
• Expertise is on a case by case evaluation
• Meetings, round tables, email and phone support
• Most of users have a great need in guidance (uncertainties)
• Direct data is delivered to modelers & impact study teams
• Stakeholders need reports and indicators
Several current initiatives to automate the data requests/delivery
Important: must have an expert team for guidance
CERFACS Météo-France 7/11
Related initiatives
DRIAS objective: Provide Access to French Regional Climate data and products for Impact and Adaptation of our Society and Environment
Co-Funding: French Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development
Coordination: Météo-France (Climatology department)
Partners• Météo-France GAME (Research Group for Meteorological Modelling)• IPSL (Pierre-Simon Laplace Institute)• CERFACS (Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique)
Project Duration: 2 years (Sep 2009 - Sep 2011)
Aims: Give access to future climate data produced with• Several Greenhouse gas emission scenarios• Several Regional climate models• Several Downscaling methods• A Standard Format• Easy access• Expertise!
Quantify several uncertainty sources
CERFACS Météo-France 8/11
Related initiatives
DRIAS
Interface will be based on Météo-France Climathèque• This system allows access to different climate products and services• Generic system with internet up to date technologies• Easy to add new services
Select the period
Select the area
Select the meteorological parameter
Select the product format
Select the scale of colours
CERFACS Météo-France 9/11
Related initiatives
DRIAS
Products: many ideas, few realizations, no industrialisation
Drought
Gaussen Climatic Diagram (Rainfall-2.Temperature Diagram)
Boxplot to show uncertainties
Larger uncertainties for2081-2100 vs 2046-2065
CERFACS Météo-France 10/11
Related initiatives
IS-ENES: InfraStructure for the European Network for Earth System. IS-ENES will develop a virtual Earth System Modelling Resource Centre (vERC)
• Funded by EU FP7• 20 partners, led by IPSL
WP11/JRA5: Bridging Climate Research Data and the Needs of the Impact Community• Provide a prototype for a web service interface• Bridge the gap
• climate modelling community• climate impact community• decision makers
Develop adaptation and mitigation policies
IS-ENESGlobal Climate Scenarios
DRIASDownscaled Regional Scenarios
France Regional Level
International Level
CERFACS Météo-France 11/11
Conclusions
1. Organisation of response to climate scenarios requests is taking shape
More collaboration between actors and requests at the France national level
2. Expertise teams for stakeholders and modellers is essential
Free climate products access without an expertise team is a bad idea
Need for contacts after products delivery should not be underestimated
3. Some European collaboration is taking place within the IS-ENES project
Questions?