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CHRONICLING CLIMATE CHANGEC O C G C C GClimate Change‐ science, facts,
evidence evidence By
Dr Vijeta RattaniDr. Vijeta RattaniClimate Change Division
Centre for Science and Environment Centre for Science and Environment New Delhi
vijeta@cseindia [email protected]
U kh d Fl d Mumbai Floods, 2005 Uttarakhand Floods, 2013
Leh Disaster, 2009 Vardah Cyclone
The Greenhouse EffEffect
Source‐ Climate Change‐ politics and facts‐ 2009
Definition Climate ChangeDefinition‐ Climate Change
Climate Change is “change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of global atmosphere and which alters the composition of global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.” UN Framework p pConvention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), 1992
Science (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) establishes 2 degree C benchmark by the end of century to prevent irreversible climate impactsof century to prevent irreversible climate impacts.
Sources of Greenhouse gases emissions
Source‐ Agarwal and Narain, 1991
Global GHG emissions by gas
Source‐World Resources Institute, 2010
75 percent pwarming is due to CO2to CO2
Emissions= Concentration= Temperature
Source‐ CSE
CO2 once emitted stays in atmosphere for 100‐150 yearsatmosphere for 100‐150 yearsThe cleaning capacity of ‘sinks’ is g p ydecreasing Th t ti f CO i th The concentration of CO2 is thus increasing
Temperature: 0.85OC over 1880-2012; last 3 decades warmest2012; last 3 decades warmest
Increasing frequency of t th textreme weather events
2,843 climate disasters, affected 4∙8 billion people mostly in developingbillion people, mostly in developing countries
Climate disasters on the rise• 306 disasters recorded on an average between
2007 and 2016; a 46 per cent increase compared ( )to the 1990‐99 average, (Lancet 2017)
• More than 90 per cent of all disasters have been associated with weather‐related events in the last 20 years
• Asia being the continent most affected • Natural hazards and disasters between 2003
and 2013 in developing countries affected around 2 billion people and caused over US$ 494 billion in estimated damage according to 494 billion in estimated damage, according to FAO
Disproportionate impacts of climate hchange
Developing countries most i t dimpacted
Developing countries most i t dimpacted
India’s climate woesd a s c ate oes
Th f f t The frequency of extreme weather events have increased by 75 percent from 1950‐2015 in central 95 5India
Monsoon rainfall in central India decreased central India decreased by 10 percent from 1990‐2015
Studies establish that climate related risks are unevenly distributed – poor countries and poor in poor countriesdistributed – poor countries and poor in poor countries suffer proportionally higher; population dependent on the agriculture sector is worst affected
22 percent of the climate impacts felt in felt in agriculture sector
Climate Impacts in India C ate pacts d a India warmed over the years—from 1901 till 2017 by 1.2°C According to CRIDA, Hyderabad, climate change has
b l habout 4‐9 per cent impact on agriculture each year. Causes about 1.5 per cent loss in GDP, every yearE i l h i f ll h d d b 86 Economic survey reveals that rainfall has decreased by 86 mm in the last three decades
By 2030 rice and wheat are likely to see about 6 10 per By 2030, rice and wheat are likely to see about 6‐10 per cent decrease in yields
The World Bank projects that under 2°C warming by the p j g y2050s, India may need to import more than twice the amount of food‐grain than would be required without li hclimate change.
Impacts projected to worsen in IndiaIndia The IPCC report projected an increase in both mean and
t i it ti i th d extreme precipitation in the summer monsoon and subsequent increase in the number of monsoon break days.
Floods and droughts are likely to increase in India since there g ywill be a decline in seasonal rainfall, coupled with increase in extreme precipitation during monsoon.
In the Indo Gangetic Plains a changing climate is likely to In the Indo‐Gangetic Plains, a changing climate is likely to reduce monsoon sorghum grain yield in India by 2‐14 per cent by 2020, with worsening yields by 2050 and 2080.
It is likely that tropical cyclone‐related rainfall rates will increase with greenhouse warming. An increase in mean tropical cyclone maximum wind speed is likely although tropical cyclone maximum wind speed is likely, although increases may not occur in all tropical regions.
Total Emissions in 2016‐ 36 billion tonnesCO2
Countries Total CO2 emission (MT CO2 eq)
Share of world population
Share of global CO2emission
Per capita emission (MT)
China 10,432 18.5 29.2 7.4
CO2
USA 5,011 4.3 14.0 15.6EU-28 3,431 6.8 9.6 6.7India 2,533 17.7 7.1 1.9Russia 1,661 1.93 4.7 11.5Japan 1,239 1.70 3.5 9.7Germany 775 1.1 2.2 9.4Canada 675 0.48 1.8 18.6Iran 642 1.07 1.7 8South Korea 604 0.68 1.6 11.8Indonesia 530 3.50 1.5 2Saudi Arabia 517 0.43 1.4 16Mexico 441 1.71 1.2 3.4Australia 441 0.32 1.2 18.3Brazil 462 2.79 1.3 2.2South Africa 390 0.75 1.1 6.9
United Kingdom 367 0.87 1.0 5.6Italy 358 0.81 1.0 5.9France 331 0.89 0.9 4.9Poland 296 0.51 0.8 7.8Spain 251 0 62 0 7 5 4Spain 251 0.62 0.7 5.4Ukraine 233 0.60 0.6 5.2Netherlands 163 0.22 0.4 9.6
Rest of world 6,576 36.5 18.3 2.4
Global CO2 emissions sector‐wise: 2016
Sector‐wise CO2 emissions in India: 2016
Contribution of fuel types and sectors in CO2 i i i I di emissions in India: 2015
Emissions are about economy
Who has caused climate changeo as caused c ate c a ge
1 American = 4 Indians in 20302030
Emissions of Indian and AmericansEmissions of Indian and Americans
There is limit to what the world can emit–Finite “Carbon Budget”Finite Carbon Budget
Key takeaways R t th i i i f Recent anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are highest in historyThere is finite carbon budgetAdaptation is mandatory to copeAdaptation is mandatory to copeEnergy basket to change‐ from fossil to non‐fossil