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John Thiry, NAI Commercial Partners, makes CCIM Investment Trends Quarterly provided available to his clients. Find more market insight at lancastercommercial.com
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First Quarter 2010 ReportVol. 6, No. 1Investment Trends
Quarterly
1Investment TrendsQuarterly
Copyright© 2010 by Real Estate Research Corporation (RERC) and the CCIM Institute.
Foreword
February 2010
Dear Readers,
While it is in our nature to view with optimism the opportunities of a new year and a new decade, the industry-changing events of the past few years have left us all a little wiser and more cautious. If nothing else, it serves as yet another reminder to trust our instincts, and if something seems to be too good to be true, it probably is (or in the case of real estate, if values seem unsustainable, they probably are).
This, and other lessons learned from the past decade, will serve us well in the years ahead as we deal with linger-ing high unemployment, weakness in our banking system with tight credit standards, and a federal deficit that will weigh on economic growth for years to come. Although institutional real estate has been dealing with financing issues for some time, many regional players who rely on commercial banks are only now starting to feel the pain of loans coming due with additional equity being required before refinancing can occur. Despite the difficulties ahead, however, these challenges should also present some good buying or leasing opportunities for those with the resources to secure them.
As you may notice, the length of the RERC/CCIM Investment Trends Quarterly has been reduced. CCIM Insti-tute members have asked for a more concise report, yet one that is still comprehensive. The report continues to offer national trends and analysis, views from CCIM members, and national and regional transaction averages. We hope you continue to find the information included herein helpful.
We also extend our appreciation to the many CCIM members who responded to RERC’s investment surveys. (Those survey respondents who wished to be identified are listed in the back pages of the report.) Your survey responses are always important, but as we move forward in this environment, your expertise is even more critical to guiding us along the way.
Best wishes for a year filled with success and opportunity.
Kenneth P. Riggs, Jr., CCIM, CRE, MAIPresident & CEOReal Estate Research Corporation (RERC)
Richard E. Juge, CCIM, CIPS, SIOR2010 CCIM Institute PresidentBroker/Owner, RE/MAX Commercial Brokers, Inc.
2Investment TrendsQuarterly
Copyright© 2010 by Real Estate Research Corporation (RERC) and the CCIM Institute.
With the second consecutive quarter of positive economic growth now apparent, it is likely that the recession will be de-clared technically over. Although we aren’t out of the woods yet, we are one step closer to recovery. However, it will take much more time for the businesses trying to sell their goods and services, the commercial property owners struggling to fill empty space, and the more than 15 million Americans that do not have jobs, to see their situations improve.
Despite the difficulties still ahead, it is a relief that as 2009 ends, the financial crisis, negative GDP growth, and worries about the housing market can finally be placed on the back burner (for now). The next two most critical problems—high unemployment and record-high deficits—are set to take center stage in 2010.
A Jobless Recovery Underway
Payroll losses have slowed dramatically during 2009, slow-ing from an average of 691,000 jobs lost per month in first quarter 2009, to an average of 69,000 jobs lost per month in fourth quarter. But according to the Bureau of Labor Statis-tics (BLS), the nation ended the year with a 10.0 percent un-employment rate and a total of 15.3 million persons without jobs. In December 2009, job loss was highest in the goods-producing sector, including manufacturing, construction, and wholesale trade; job growth was seen in temporary help services and health care.
The past 3 months of data suggest that the labor market is at or near bottom, but according to most experts, the labor market is not expected to improve substantially for some time, and unemployment is expected to remain at or near double-digit levels throughout 2010. (Interestingly, when the unemployment rate peaked at 10.8 percent at the end of 1982, it took more than 6 years for employment to increase to its pre-recession level.)
On a statewide basis, Michigan had the highest unemploy-ment rate at 14.6 percent in December 2009. Nevada fol-lowed, with an unemployment rate of 13.0 percent, Rhode Island at 12.9 percent, South Carolina at 12.6 percent, and California at 12.4 percent. A total of 17 states (including the District of Columbia) ended the year with double-digit em-ployment. The lack of tax revenues continues to negatively impact the budgets of state and local governments. Beyond
the closing of state parks and facilities, reduction in days of governmental services provided, and increased fees al-ready implemented, further cuts in programs and the public workforce, including teachers, police officers and fire fight-ers, medical personnel, and others, are expected.
The jobless recovery will be painful, but like the last reces-sion, it will set the economy up for other gains during the decade to come, including increased productivity, which grew at a rate of 8.1 percent during third quarter 2009, and 6.9 percent in second quarter. The 8.1-percent growth is the largest reported increase in the past 6 years.
Debt and Deficits Drain Growth
Although most of us agreed that the record-high deficit and debt was necessary for getting the U.S. economy through the recession, we expected it to be a temporary fix and that fiscal sanity would return as the economy started to stabilize.
Unfortunately, it looks like huge budget deficits will be with us for a good while longer and that we can expect them to go even higher than they are now. The president’s recently proposed budget projects the current deficit to increase to a record $1.6 trillion in fiscal 2010, and the proposed budget for fiscal 2011 is $3.8 trillion with a projected deficit of $1.3
Economic Background andInvestment Environment
3Investment TrendsQuarterly
Copyright© 2010 by Real Estate Research Corporation (RERC) and the CCIM Institute.
trillion. As reviewed by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), 40 percent of the cost of government programs are currently being funded with borrowed money.
Criticism from congressional opponents and the public, who believe government spending at this rate is unsustainable and who are concerned about the $12.3 trillion debt burden overall (which is projected to be approximately $45,000 per U.S. citizen), is intensifying. For now, the answer seems to be that the spending is warranted in order to improve job growth. As the economy improves, however, difficult deci-sions about reducing spending, increasing tax revenues, or both, must be faced.
CCIM Members Rate Real Estate
CCIM members are less than optimistic about the U.S. econ-omy, rating it at 3.9 on a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being high, in fourth quarter 2009. This number has not changed since third quarter 2009, though there is significant improvement from a year ago when the CCIM members believed a rating of 2.6 was an accurate assessment of the U.S. economy. Although the economy remains in a fragile state, it is slowly and steadily improving.
CCIM members gave commercial real estate the strongest investment option rating for fourth quarter 2009, with a score of 5.7 on a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being high, as shown in Exhibit 1. This continues the upward trend, and further indicates CCIM members’ optimism about this asset class. At 5.2, stocks earned the second highest rating, followed by cash. In comparison, bonds earned the lowest investment rating, at 4.5. The rating for stocks and bonds decreased since third quarter, while cash remained unchanged.
As shown in Exhibit 2, RERC’s institutional survey respon-dents gave commercial real estate a strong buy recommen-dation during fourth quarter 2009, while the hold recom-mendation for the fourth quarter was somewhat lower than the third quarter reading. Although the sell recommendation increased slightly during fourth quarter, it has remained gen-erally low during the past few quarters.
The fourth quarter 2009 investment conditions ratings for the various property types were very similar to the third quarter ratings. Although the fourth quarter rating was down slightly from the third quarter rating, at 5.4, the apartment sector retained the highest rating on a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being high, as shown in Exhibit 3. The hotel sector shared the lowest ratings with the office and retail sectors at 3.8. In addition, the apartment sector was the only property type
with an investment conditions rating above 5.0 during fourth quarter. Interestingly, the hotel sector was the only property type whose rating increased from third quarter.
CCIM members ranked the overall return versus risk for commercial real estate at 4.8 on a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being high, during fourth quarter 2009, as reflected in Exhibit 4. This is a slight decrease from the third quarter, and con-
Exhibit 1. CCIM Respondents Rate Investments
4Q 2009 3Q 2009
Commercial Real Estate 5.7 5.6
Stocks 5.2 5.4
Bonds 4.5 4.6
Cash 5.1 5.1
Ratings are based on a scale of 1 to 10, where 1 is poor and 10 is excellent.Source: RERC/CCIM Investment Trends Quarterly Survey, 4Q 2009.
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
2
4
6
8
10
HoldSell
Buy
4Q 2009
4Q 2008
4Q 2007
4Q 2006
4Q 2005
4Q 2004
4Q 2003
4Q 2002
4Q 2001
4Q 2000
Exhibit 2. RERC Historical Buy, Sell, Hold Recommendations
Ratings are based on a scale of 1 to 10, where 1 is poor and 10 is excellent.Source: RERC Institutional Investment Survey, 4Q 2009.
Rat
ing
Exhibit 3. Real Estate Investment Conditions Ratings4Q
20093Q
20092Q
20091Q
20094Q
2008
Office 3.8 3.8 3.5 3.7 3.2
Industrial 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.2
Retail 3.8 3.8 3.4 3.4 3.0
Apartment 5.4 5.5 5.1 5.5 5.7
Hotel 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.7 3.5Ratings are based on a scale of 1 to 10, where 1 is poor and 10 is excellent.Source: RERC/CCIM Investment Trends Quarterly Survey, 4Q 2009.
4Investment TrendsQuarterly
Copyright© 2010 by Real Estate Research Corporation (RERC) and the CCIM Institute.
tinues the up and down trend demonstrated during the past year. This rating indicates that members feel that the risk of commercial real estate slightly outweighs the return on this asset class, and they are still uncertain about the prospects for returns.The apartment sector continued to earn CCIM members’ highest return versus risk rating for fourth quarter 2009, with
a score of 5.8 on a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being high, and was the only sector to receive a rating of 5.0 or more. At 4.7, the industrial sector earned the second-highest return versus risk rating. The hotel and retail sectors tied for having the lowest rating at 3.9. All sectors received a lower return versus risk rating during fourth quarter, with the exception of the apartment sector, whose rating remained unchanged, and the hotel sector, whose rating increased.
CCIM members rated the value versus price for the com-mercial real estate market at 4.7 on a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being high, during fourth quarter 2009. This is down from a rating of 4.8 in third quarter, and continues the steady de-cline in ratings this year.
In addition, the value versus price rating declined for each of the property types during fourth quarter, although the fourth quarter rating was still equal to or higher than year-ago rat-ings. Each sector earned a rating lower than 5.0 on a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being high, indicating that investors feel that the price of these property types outweighs their value. As further shown in Exhibit 4, although the apartment sector led the way again with a rating of 4.9, it also experienced the biggest rating decline from third quarter. The industrial sec-tor followed with a rating of 4.7. The retail and office sectors saw the next highest ratings of 4.2 and 4.3, respectively. The lowest property was from the hotel sector with a rating of 4.0.
The financial markets ended 2009 with significant gains overall, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average reporting an
Exhibit 4. Historical Return/Risk and Value/Price Ratings4Q 2009 3Q 2009 2Q 2009 1Q 2009 4Q 2008
Return vs. RiskOverall 4.8 5.0 4.7 5.3 4.6
Office 4.1 4.2 4.0 4.6 3.8
Industrial 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.3 4.6
Retail 3.9 4.0 3.6 4.0 3.3
Apartment 5.8 5.8 5.2 6.3 5.8
Hotel 3.9 3.8 3.4 4.6 4.1
Value vs. PriceOverall 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.1 4.5
Office 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.8 4.3
Industrial 4.7 5.0 4.9 5.4 4.7
Retail 4.2 4.4 4.3 4.5 3.8
Apartment 4.9 5.3 4.8 5.2 4.8
Hotel 4.0 4.1 3.9 4.7 4.1Ratings are based on a scale of 1 to 10, where 1 is poor and 10 is excellent.Source: RERC/CCIM Investment Trends Quarterly Survey, 4Q 2009.
5Investment TrendsQuarterly
Copyright© 2010 by Real Estate Research Corporation (RERC) and the CCIM Institute.
annual return of 22.68 percent and the NASDAQ Composite showing a return of 43.89 percent. Real estate stocks also took off, as shown in Exhibit 5, with the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts (NAREIT) Index reporting a compounded annual rate of return of 54.78 percent during 2009. However, private commercial real estate lost 16.85 percent according to the National Council of Real Estate In-dependent Fiduciaries (NCREIF) Index.
Summary
Commercial real estate activity remains weak, but until con-fidence returns on the part of businesses and consumers, we will see little job growth—the critical component needed for commercial real estate usage—and the industry will con-tinue to suffer.
In looking ahead, RERC reminds investors that:
• The economic recovery will be a slow process, and high unemployment will be with us for the foreseeable future.
• U.S. governmental policy, the federal deficit, and new regulations will cause significant fiscal instability in the economy for the coming decade.
• The U.S. capital markets will remain tight for some time.
• Institutional real estate has already taken many of their lumps, but smaller investors and borrowers present a looming crisis due to the fact that they have not marked-to-market their investments, and many regional banks are not able to continue to “extend and pretend.”
• Cap rate expansion has been priced into commercial real estate prices, but valuations are still catching up.
• Commercial property sale prices are expected to remain flat or decline slightly, although declining rents could eventually cause further deterioration in prices.
Exhibit 5. What Do the Financial Markets Tell Us?
Compounded Annual Rates of Return as of 12/31/2009
Market Indices 2009 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year 15-Year
Consumer Price Index1 2.86% 2.28% 2.56% 2.57% 2.50%
10-Year Treasury Bond2 3.15% 3.82% 4.11% 4.45% 4.98%
Dow Jones Industrial Average 22.68% -3.12% 1.95% 1.30% 9.24%
NASDAQ Composite3 43.89% -2.06% 0.85% -5.67% 7.64%
NYSE Composite3 24.80% -7.71% -0.18% 0.44% 6.87%
S&P 500 26.46% -5.63% 0.42% -0.95% 8.04%
NCREIF Index -16.85% -3.41% 4.75% 7.30% 8.79%
NAREIT Index (Equity REITS) 54.78% -12.41% 0.36% 10.63% 9.77%
1Based on the published data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).2Based on Average End of Day T-Bond Rates.3Based on Price Index, and does not include the dividend yield.Sources: BLS, Federal Reserve Board, S&P, Dow Jones, NCREIF, NAREIT, compiled by RERC.
6Investment TrendsQuarterly
Copyright© 2010 by Real Estate Research Corporation (RERC) and the CCIM Institute.
Snapshot of Real Estate Space and Market Performance – 4Q 2009
Vacancy Rates
Performance Indicator Recent Data Impact on Commercial Real Estate
Rental Rates(RERC’s surveyed rent growth expectations)
Office: 0.6% to 0.9%Industrial: 0.6 to 0.9%Retail: 0.5% to 0.6%Apartment: 1.4%Hotel: -0.4%
RERC’s fourth quarter 2009 rental rate expectations were lower than third quarter expectations for every sector except for the apartment sec-tor, which was slightly higher, and the hotel sector, which remained the same.
Real Estate Returns
RERC Required Returns:Office: 9.6% to 10.1%Industrial: 10.0% to 10.6%Retail: 9.7% to 10.0%Apartment: 9.2%Hotel: 11.9%
NCREIF Realized Returns:Office: -19.5% to -18.9%Industrial: -18.1% to -16.4%Retail: -15.5% to -10.6%Apartment: -17.5%Hotel: -20.4%
RERC’s fourth quarter 2009 required pre-tax yield rates were higher than third quarter rates for every sector, with the exception of the retail sec-tor rates, which dropped slightly. NCREIF’s realized returns improved in fourth quarter, but were still negative.
Capitalization Rates
RERC Realized Cap Rates:Office: 7.5%Industrial: 8.4%Retail: 7.6%Apartment: 7.0%Hotel: 9.2%
NCREIF Implied Cap Rates:Office: 6.0% to 6.5%Industrial: 6.7% to 7.2%Retail: 6.4% to 7.2%Apartment: 5.3%Hotel: 4.4%
RERC’s realized capitalization rates for fourth quarter 2009 increased over third quarter rates. NCREIF’s implied capitalization rates for fourth quarter were higher than third quarter rates for each sector.
12
13
14
15
16
17
12
13
14
15
16
17
4Q 2009
3Q 2009
2Q 2009
1Q 2009
4Q 2008
3Q 2008
2Q 2008
1Q 2008
4Q 2007
3Q 2007
2Q 2007
1Q 2007
4Q 2006
3Q 2006
2Q 2006
1Q 2006
4Q 2005
3Q 2005
2Q 2005
1Q 2005
Perc
ent
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
3Q 2009
2Q 2009
1Q 2009
4Q 2008
3Q 2008
2Q 2008
1Q 2008
4Q 2007
3Q 2007
2Q 2007
1Q 2007
4Q 2006
3Q 2006
2Q 2006
1Q 2006
4Q 2005
3Q 2005
2Q 2005
1Q 2005
Perc
ent
9
10
11
12
13
14
9
10
11
12
13
14
4Q 2009
3Q 2009
2Q 2009
1Q 2009
4Q 2008
3Q 2008
2Q 2008
1Q 2008
4Q 2007
3Q 2007
2Q 2007
1Q 2007
4Q 2006
3Q 2006
2Q 2006
1Q 2006
4Q 2005
3Q 2005
2Q 2005
1Q 2005
Perc
ent
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
4Q 2009
3Q 2009
2Q 2009
1Q 2009
4Q 2008
3Q 2008
2Q 2008
1Q 2008
4Q 2007
3Q 2007
2Q 2007
1Q 2007
4Q 2006
3Q 2006
2Q 2006
1Q 2006
4Q 2005
3Q 2005
2Q 2005
1Q 2005
Perc
ent
Source: CBRE-EA.
Source: CBRE-EA.
Source: CBRE-EA.
Source: Reis.
Office Vacancy Rate Retail Availability Rate
Industrial Availability Rate Apartment Vacancy Rate
7Investment TrendsQuarterly
Copyright© 2010 by Real Estate Research Corporation (RERC) and the CCIM Institute.
NationalMarketAnalysis
National Transaction Breakdown12-Month Trailing Averages (01/01/09 - 12/31/09)
Office Industrial Retail Apartment Hotel< $2 MillionVolume (Mil) $1,364 $2,453 $2,553 $1,127 $102
Size Weighted Avg. ($ per sf/unit) $88 $49 $84 $47,457 $19,853
Price Weighted Avg. ($ per sf/unit) $122 $79 $126 $72,342 $28,678
Median ($ per sf/unit) $92 $57 $86 $52,083 $21,875
$2 - $5 MillionVolume (Mil) $1,723 $2,704 $2,921 $2,265 $313
Size Weighted Avg. ($ per sf/unit) $110 $55 $131 $58,135 $34,518
Price Weighted Avg. ($ per sf/unit) $190 $95 $233 $108,773 $47,640
Median ($ per sf/unit) $161 $73 $196 $83,368 $40,417
> $5 MillionVolume (Mil) $14,611 $5,547 $12,583 $12,445 $2,570
Size Weighted Avg. ($ per sf/unit) $188 $58 $154 $86,047 $100,610
Price Weighted Avg. ($ per sf/unit) $322 $109 $298 $168,811 $171,955
Median ($ per sf/unit) $179 $71 $154 $85,158 $87,719
All TransactionsVolume (Mil) $17,698 $10,704 $18,057 $15,836 $2,985
Size Weighted Avg. ($ per sf/unit) $163 $55 $135 $76,383 $75,111
Price Weighted Avg. ($ per sf/unit) $293 $99 $263 $153,361 $154,028
Median ($ per sf/unit) $112 $62 $110 $68,000 $44,660
Capitalization Rates (All Transactions)Range (%) 4.5 - 11.6 5.9 - 13.1 4.7 - 13.3 3.4 - 12.8 5.9 - 13.1
Weighted Avg. (%) 7.5 8.4 7.6 7.0 9.2
Median (%) 8.0 8.1 7.5 7.0 9.5 Source: RERC.
8Investment TrendsQuarterly
Copyright© 2010 by Real Estate Research Corporation (RERC) and the CCIM Institute.
NationalMarketAnalysis
National Transaction BreakdownCurrent Quarter Rates (10/1/09 - 12/31/09)
Office Industrial Retail Apartment Hotel< $2 MillionVolume (Mil) $286 $613 $580 $266 $15
Size Weighted Avg. ($ per sf/unit) $85 $49 $82 $48,179 $20,803
Price Weighted Avg. ($ per sf/unit) $118 $75 $124 $71,818 $28,460
Median ($ per sf/unit) $94 $57 $86 $53,673 $20,529
$2 - $5 MillionVolume (Mil) $347 $631 $675 $553 $64
Size Weighted Avg. ($ per sf/unit) $96 $49 $116 $52,551 $34,269
Price Weighted Avg. ($ per sf/unit) $176 $83 $225 $106,640 $49,678
Median ($ per sf/unit) $143 $72 $174 $85,000 $40,417
> $5 MillionVolume (Mil) $2,601 $1,430 $5,914 $4,789 $771
Size Weighted Avg. ($ per sf/unit) $155 $47 $170 $97,408 $85,093
Price Weighted Avg. ($ per sf/unit) $264 $90 $321 $223,707 $120,923
Median ($ per sf/unit) $159 $64 $154 $89,172 $81,498
All TransactionsVolume (Mil) $3,235 $2,673 $7,169 $5,608 $850
Size Weighted Avg. ($ per sf/unit) $136 $48 $150 $86,005 $72,965
Price Weighted Avg. ($ per sf/unit) $242 $85 $296 $204,966 $113,941
Median ($ per sf/unit) $105 $60 $113 $68,133 $44,097
Capitalization Rates (All Transactions)Range (%) 5.3 - 10.5 6.8 - 10.6 5.8 - 10.6 5.9 - 10.1 6.8 - 13.1
Weighted Avg. (%) 8.1 8.7 8.0 6.9 9.5
Median (%) 7.9 9.0 7.6 7.6 10.7 Source: RERC.
OfficePropertySector
9Investment TrendsQuarterly
Copyright© 2010 by Real Estate Research Corporation (RERC) and the CCIM Institute.
w With continued high unemployment and low demand for office properties, vacancy rates have risen to levels not seen since 1994. Some respondents to the RERC/CCIM Investment Trends Quarterly survey commented that of-fice properties may offer some of the best investment opportunities in the coming year due to foreclosures and short sales, which will allow new owners to benefit. Com-paratively, a few respondents stated that office properties might not be good to invest in due to the improbability that businesses will expand or relocate.
w RERC’s 12-month trailing transaction analysis for fourth quarter 2009 showed a continued decline in office volume and pricing. The 12-month trailing volume declined more than 25 percent. The 12-month trailing weighted average and median capitalization rates increased to 7.5 percent and 8.0 percent, respectively.
w The office vacancy rate increased 20 basis points to 16.3 percent in fourth quarter 2009, according to CBRE Econo-metric Advisors. This is the eighth consecutive quarterly increase in vacancy. The net asking rent average for of-fice properties has been declining since first quarter 2009. However, net absorption posted its first positive quarter since fourth quarter 2008.
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%NationalWest
Midwest
South
East
4Q093Q092Q091Q094Q08
RERC Weighted Average Capitalization Rate(12-Month Trailing Average)
$50
$150
$250
$350
$450
$550
$650
$50
$150
$250
$350
$450
$550
$650
NationalWest
Midwest
South
East
4Q093Q092Q091Q094Q08
RERC Price-Weighted Average PPSF(12-Month Trailing Average)
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350NationalWest
Midwest
South
East
4Q093Q092Q091Q094Q08
RERC Size-Weighted Average PPSF(12-Month Trailing Average)
National
10Investment TrendsQuarterly
Copyright© 2010 by Real Estate Research Corporation (RERC) and the CCIM Institute.
IndustrialPropertySector
w According to the Federal Reserve’s Jan. 13, 2010 Beige Book, manufacturing activity improved in half the districts during the recent reporting period. The remaining districts saw mixed or weak activity. Industrial production has re-mained positive since July 2009. Survey respondents for the RERC/CCIM Investment Trends Quarterly stated that the industrial sector looks more positive in the future due to lower prices and increasing stability.
w During fourth quarter 2009, the industrial market experi-enced declining prices and increasing capitalization rates on a 12-month trailing basis. There was no significant change in volume in the current quarter, but on a 12-month trailing basis, volume declined by more than 15 percent as compared to the previous quarter. The 12-month trailing size- and price-weighted average prices per square foot declined, while the weighted average and median capi-talization rates increased by 30 basis points and 10 basis points, respectively.
w According to CBRE Econometric Advisors, the availability rate for the industrial property sector increased 40 basis points to 13.9 percent during fourth quarter 2009, the high-est rate since CBRE Econometric Advisors began tracking it in 1989. Net absorption of industrial space continued to decrease.
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%NationalWest
Midwest
South
East
4Q093Q092Q091Q094Q08
RERC Weighted Average Capitalization Rate(12-Month Trailing Average)
$25
$50
$75
$100
$125
$150
$175
$25
$50
$75
$100
$125
$150
$175NationalWest
MidwestSouthEast
4Q093Q092Q091Q094Q08
RERC Price-Weighted Average PPSF(12-Month Trailing Average)
$25
$45
$65
$85
$105
$125
$25
$45
$65
$85
$105
$125NationalWest
Midwest
South
East
4Q093Q092Q091Q094Q08
RERC Size-Weighted Average PPSF(12-Month Trailing Average)
National
11Investment TrendsQuarterly
Copyright© 2010 by Real Estate Research Corporation (RERC) and the CCIM Institute.
RetailPropertySector
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
8.0%
8.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
8.0%
8.5%NationalWest
Midwest
South
East
4Q093Q092Q091Q094Q08
RERC Weighted Average Capitalization Rate(12-Month Trailing Average)
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400NationalWest
Midwest
South
East
4Q093Q092Q091Q094Q08
RERC Price-Weighted Average PPSF(12-Month Trailing Average)
w Most of the RERC/CCIM Investment Trends Quarterly survey respondents were pessimistic about prospects for the retail property market due to continued high unem-ployment and low consumer spending. Poor business per-formance and the availability of too much space are also negatively impacting the retail sector. In general, the retail environment remains very weak.
w RERC’s current quarter and 12-month trailing transaction analysis continued to show retail market volume increas-ing during fourth quarter 2009. The volume of transactions increased by nearly 5 percent on a 12-month trailing basis, while it increased by 40 percent on a current quarter basis. The 12-month trailing weighted average and median capi-talization rates increased to 7.6 percent and 7.5 percent, respectively.
w According to CBRE Econometric Advisors, the availability rate for the retail sector increased 20 basis points during third quarter 2009. The availability rate has not been this high since CBRE Econometric Advisors started tracking this rate in 1989. The net asking rent for retail properties declined for the third consecutive quarter, and net absorp-tion was negative for the fifth consecutive quarter.
$25
$75
$125
$175
$225
$25
$75
$125
$175
$225NationalWest
Midwest
South
East
4Q093Q092Q091Q094Q08
RERC Size-Weighted Average PPSF(12-Month Trailing Average)
National
12Investment TrendsQuarterly
Copyright© 2010 by Real Estate Research Corporation (RERC) and the CCIM Institute.
ApartmentPropertySector
w Many respondents to the survey for the RERC/CCIM In-vestment Trends Quarterly believe that the apartment prop-erty sector is still the most reliable property type in which to invest. Several survey respondents stated that the apart-ment sector offers the best investment opportunity due to lower rent and the continued need for alternative housing. Another respondent noted that the number of people who were homeowners and are now renters will continue to in-crease over the next few years.
w RERC’s 12-month trailing volume for the apartment sector did not change significantly in fourth quarter 2009 from the previous quarter, while the current quarter volume actually increased by 60 percent. The 12-month trailing size- and price-weighted averages increased, compared with the median price per apartment unit, which decreased from the previous quarter. The 12-month trailing weighted aver-age and median capitalization rates increased by 30 basis points each.
w As with the other property types, the vacancy rate for the apartment sector has continued to rise throughout 2009. The vacancy rate increased to 8.0 percent in fourth quarter 2009, which is up 10 basis points from third quarter 2009, according to Reis, Inc., and is the highest vacancy level on record in the near-30-year history of Reis apartment re-search. Net absorption was only mildly positive, given that more than 28,000 new apartment units were added to the inventory.
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
8.0%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
8.0%NationalWest
MidwestSouthEast
4Q093Q092Q091Q094Q08
RERC Weighted Average Capitalization Rate(12-Month Trailing Average)
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000NationalWest
Midwest
South
East
4Q093Q092Q091Q094Q08
RERC Price-Weighted Average PPU(12-Month Trailing Average)
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000NationalWest
Midwest
South
East
4Q093Q092Q091Q094Q08
RERC Size-Weighted Average PPU(12-Month Trailing Average)
National
13Investment TrendsQuarterly
Copyright© 2010 by Real Estate Research Corporation (RERC) and the CCIM Institute.
HotelPropertySector
w The majority of survey respondents for the RERC/CCIM Investment Trends Quarterly commented that hotels will continue to suffer due to less discretionary income and de-creased business and personal travel. Respondents also cautioned that the bottom has not yet been reached for the hotel sector, and until that happens, hotels will continue to face difficult times.
w During fourth quarter 2009, hotel transaction volume de-clined by more than 15 percent on a 12-month trailing ba-sis. The 12-month trailing size- and price-weighted aver-age price per unit increased from the previous quarter. The 12-month trailing weighted average and median capitaliza-tion rates decreased to 9.2 percent and 9.5 percent, respec-tively.
w According to Smith Travel Research, hotel occupancy de-clined 5.4 percent from year-ago results, ending the last full week of December 2009 at 33.8 percent occupancy. The average daily rate dropped 8.0 percent, while revenue per available room (RevPAR) decreased 13.0 percent to finish out the year. At the end of December 2009, there were 3,829 hotel projects in development, comprised of 401,090 rooms, which is nearly 35 percent fewer rooms in development than a year ago.
6%
8%
10%
12%
6%
8%
10%
12%NationalWest
MidwestSouth
East
4Q093Q092Q091Q094Q08
RERC Weighted Average Capitalization Rate(12-Month Trailing Average)
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000NationalWest
Midwest
South
East
4Q093Q092Q091Q094Q08
RERC Price-Weighted Average PPU(12-Month Trailing Average)
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000NationalWest
Midwest
South
East
4Q093Q092Q091Q094Q08
RERC Size-Weighted Average PPU(12-Month Trailing Average)
National
14Investment TrendsQuarterly
Copyright© 2010 by Real Estate Research Corporation (RERC) and the CCIM Institute.
EastRegionTransactionBreakdown
East Transaction Breakdown12-Month Trailing Averages (01/01/09 - 12/31/09)
Office Industrial Retail Apartment Hotel< $2 MillionVolume (Mil) $346 $626 $713 $191 $29
Size Weighted Avg. ($ per sf/unit) $78 $47 $85 $49,729 $18,655
Price Weighted Avg. ($ per sf/unit) $111 $78 $125 $67,275 $26,508
Median ($ per sf/unit) $80 $54 $85 $52,000 $21,875
$2 - $5 MillionVolume (Mil) $454 $709 $812 $701 $96
Size Weighted Avg. ($ per sf/unit) $107 $56 $129 $73,476 $34,979
Price Weighted Avg. ($ per sf/unit) $190 $92 $240 $117,601 $47,813
Median ($ per sf/unit) $133 $71 $196 $79,898 $45,100
> $5 MillionVolume (Mil) $7,615 $1,501 $4,795 $3,924 $1,127
Size Weighted Avg. ($ per sf/unit) $234 $63 $163 $103,034 $113,141
Price Weighted Avg. ($ per sf/unit) $376 $115 $379 $185,585 $206,631
Median ($ per sf/unit) $200 $76 $154 $98,305 $77,172
All TransactionsVolume (Mil) $8,415 $2,836 $6,320 $4,816 $1,252
Size Weighted Avg. ($ per sf/unit) $204 $56 $143 $93,585 $87,791
Price Weighted Avg. ($ per sf/unit) $355 $101 $332 $171,007 $190,271
Median ($ per sf/unit) $109 $59 $113 $76,517 $47,917
Capitalization Rates (All Transactions)Range (%) 4.5 - 10.5 7.3 - 12.3 5.4 - 9.5 5.0 - 9.3 6.5 - 9.0
Weighted Avg. (%) 7.2 8.7 7.8 7.0 8.0
Median (%) 8.1 8.6 7.5 7.4 6.8 Source: RERC.
15Investment TrendsQuarterly
Copyright© 2010 by Real Estate Research Corporation (RERC) and the CCIM Institute.
SouthRegionTransactionBreakdown
South Transaction Breakdown12-Month Trailing Averages (01/01/09 - 12/31/09)
Office Industrial Retail Apartment Hotel< $2 MillionVolume (Mil) $363 $558 $820 $181 $24
Size Weighted Avg. ($ per sf/unit) $89 $43 $82 $32,806 $17,727
Price Weighted Avg. ($ per sf/unit) $117 $63 $121 $47,573 $26,166
Median ($ per sf/unit) $93 $51 $79 $36,720 $23,636
$2 - $5 MillionVolume (Mil) $409 $459 $763 $372 $88
Size Weighted Avg. ($ per sf/unit) $90 $37 $117 $29,940 $33,714
Price Weighted Avg. ($ per sf/unit) $161 $59 $199 $46,054 $46,932
Median ($ per sf/unit) $125 $48 $169 $40,000 $35,507
> $5 MillionVolume (Mil) $1,718 $763 $3,453 $3,339 $591
Size Weighted Avg. ($ per sf/unit) $117 $45 $142 $59,259 $83,998
Price Weighted Avg. ($ per sf/unit) $170 $75 $225 $83,868 $161,181
Median ($ per sf/unit) $131 $58 $142 $58,477 $101,852
All TransactionsVolume (Mil) $2,489 $1,780 $5,037 $3,892 $703
Size Weighted Avg. ($ per sf/unit) $107 $42 $123 $52,388 $63,965
Price Weighted Avg. ($ per sf/unit) $161 $67 $204 $78,563 $142,331
Median ($ per sf/unit) $102 $51 $96 $43,939 $47,947
Capitalization Rates (All Transactions)Range (%) 6.9 - 10.6 6.6 - 10.7 5.8 - 10.6 4.0 - 12.8 7.0 - 10.7
Weighted Avg. (%) 8.2 7.8 8.2 7.5 9.6
Median (%) 7.7 6.9 8.0 7.8 10.3 Source: RERC.
16Investment TrendsQuarterly
Copyright© 2010 by Real Estate Research Corporation (RERC) and the CCIM Institute.
MidwestRegionTransactionBreakdown
Midwest Transaction Breakdown12-Month Trailing Averages (01/01/09 - 12/31/09)
Office Industrial Retail Apartment Hotel< $2 MillionVolume (Mil) $211 $400 $378 $165 $13
Size Weighted Avg. ($ per sf/unit) $65 $31 $61 $26,664 $13,155
Price Weighted Avg. ($ per sf/unit) $88 $48 $96 $37,607 $18,191
Median ($ per sf/unit) $69 $38 $65 $31,667 $12,931
$2 - $5 MillionVolume (Mil) $190 $369 $348 $228 $24
Size Weighted Avg. ($ per sf/unit) $82 $36 $101 $32,282 $23,766
Price Weighted Avg. ($ per sf/unit) $118 $52 $211 $49,806 $33,427
Median ($ per sf/unit) $94 $39 $164 $47,625 $22,107
> $5 MillionVolume (Mil) $1,432 $696 $1,309 $805 $293
Size Weighted Avg. ($ per sf/unit) $119 $32 $133 $57,705 $84,662
Price Weighted Avg. ($ per sf/unit) $203 $49 $225 $74,116 $119,917
Median ($ per sf/unit) $120 $39 $154 $57,676 $76,588
All TransactionsVolume (Mil) $1,833 $1,464 $2,036 $1,198 $329
Size Weighted Avg. ($ per sf/unit) $104 $33 $104 $44,029 $60,678
Price Weighted Avg. ($ per sf/unit) $181 $49 $199 $64,448 $109,712
Median ($ per sf/unit) $79 $38 $80 $36,667 $25,471
Capitalization Rates (All Transactions)Range (%) 4.6 - 10.0 6.8 - 10.6 5.9 - 11.8 5.6 - 10.1 –
Weighted Avg. (%) 7.9 8.7 8.3 7.3 –
Median (%) 8.2 8.9 8.2 7.5 –Source: RERC.
17Investment TrendsQuarterly
Copyright© 2010 by Real Estate Research Corporation (RERC) and the CCIM Institute.
WestRegionTransactionBreakdown
West Transaction Breakdown12-Month Trailing Averages (01/01/09 - 12/31/09)
Office Industrial Retail Apartment Hotel< $2 MillionVolume (Mil) $443 $869 $641 $590 $36
Size Weighted Avg. ($ per sf/unit) $117 $79 $107 $72,037 $28,693
Price Weighted Avg. ($ per sf/unit) $150 $104 $151 $91,334 $35,728
Median ($ per sf/unit) $121 $88 $112 $75,000 $28,448
$2 - $5 MillionVolume (Mil) $666 $1,164 $998 $963 $105
Size Weighted Avg. ($ per sf/unit) $151 $86 $167 $97,124 $38,816
Price Weighted Avg. ($ per sf/unit) $228 $125 $261 $140,539 $51,304
Median ($ per sf/unit) $213 $105 $222 $130,435 $42,593
> $5 MillionVolume (Mil) $3,829 $2,588 $3,026 $4,377 $560
Size Weighted Avg. ($ per sf/unit) $212 $78 $170 $120,730 $109,863
Price Weighted Avg. ($ per sf/unit) $326 $132 $284 $235,971 $140,687
Median ($ per sf/unit) $213 $96 $193 $116,494 $84,515
All TransactionsVolume (Mil) $4,939 $4,621 $4,665 $5,930 $701
Size Weighted Avg. ($ per sf/unit) $188 $80 $157 $109,091 $77,297
Price Weighted Avg. ($ per sf/unit) $297 $125 $261 $206,088 $121,826
Median ($ per sf/unit) $157 $93 $149 $96,039 $48,165
Capitalization Rates (All Transactions)Range (%) 5.0 - 11.6 5.9 - 13.1 4.7 - 13.3 3.4 - 8.5 5.9 - 13.1
Weighted Avg. (%) 8.2 8.3 6.9 6.7 9.9
Median (%) 7.7 8.0 7.0 6.4 10.4 Source: RERC.
18Investment TrendsQuarterly
Copyright© 2010 by Real Estate Research Corporation (RERC) and the CCIM Institute.
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
4Q 2009
2Q 2009
4Q 2008
2Q 2008
4Q 2007
2Q 2007
4Q 2006
2Q 2006
4Q 2005
2Q 2005
4Q 2004
2Q 2004
4Q 2003
2Q 2003
4Q 2002
2Q 2002
4Q 2001
2Q 2001
4Q 2000
2Q 2000
Perc
ent C
hang
e Q
uart
er A
go
Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rose 5.7 percent in fourth quarter 2009, the third largest increase of the decade, although much of the increase was due to a drawdown in business inventories. Consumers remain wary about spending, and business owners are con-cerned about excess production. Expectations are for slow economic growth in 2010.
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Dec-09
Nov-09
Oct-09
Sep-09
Aug-09
Jul-0
9
Jun-0
9
May-09
Apr-09
Mar-09
Feb-09
Jan-0
9
Perc
ent C
hang
e M
onth
Ago
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1 percent in December 2009, marking the fifth consecutive increase in 2009. Despite the increases, CPI has remained low, due in great part to low fuel prices, and has helped to keep inflation concerns at bay for now.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Perc
ent
2
4
6
8
10
12
2
4
6
8
10
12
Sep-09
May-09
Jan-0
9
Sep-08
May-08
Jan-0
8
Sep-07
May-07
Jan-0
7
Sep-06
May-06
Jan-0
6
Sep-05
May-05
Jan-0
5
Sep-04
May-04
Jan-0
4
Sep-03
May-03
Jan-0
3
Sep-02
May-02
Jan-0
2
Sep-01
May-01
Jan-0
1
Sep-00
May-00
Jan-0
0
Unemployment remained at 10.0 percent in December, making it the third consecutive month at this rate or higher. Job growth is key to increasing consumer confidence and spending, in addition to reducing vacancy rates for commercial properties. Double-digit unemployment rate is expected to be with us for much of 2010, at least.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Perc
ent
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Discount Rate
Fed Funds Rate
Sep-09
Apr-09
Oct-08
Mar-08
Sep-07
Mar-07
Sep-06
Mar-06
Sep-05
Mar-05
Sep-04
Mar-04
Sep-03
Mar-03
Sep-02
Mar-02
Oct-01
May-01
Dec-00
Jun-00
Feb-00
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept the federal funds rate in the 0.0 to 0.25 per-cent range and the discount rate at 0.50 percent. The FOMC still believes that inflationary pres-sure is low, and given the fragile economy, expects to keep rates low for “an extended period.”
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Dec-09
Oct-09
Aug-09
Jun-0
9
Apr-09
Feb-09
Dec-08
Oct-08
Aug-08
Jun-0
8
Apr-08
Feb-08
Dec-07
Oct-07
Aug-07
Year
To Y
ear P
erce
nt C
hang
e
Retail sales were disapointing in December 2009 after posting solid gains in November. Even so, December 2009 sales were an improvement over year-ago sales. Until jobs return, retail sales are expected to remain subdued.
Source: Census Bureau.
60
65
70
75
80
85
60
65
70
75
80
85
Dec-09
May-09
Oct-08
Mar-08
Aug-07
Jan-0
7
Jun-0
6
Nov-05
Apr-05
Sep-04
Feb-04
Jul-0
3Dec-0
2
May-02
Oct-01
Mar-01
Aug-00
Jan-0
0
Perc
ent
December 2009 marked the sixth straight month that manufacturing utilization has increased. This is welcome news for an economy just pulling out of recession, and offers hope that increased production will continue.
Source: Federal Reserve.
Source: Federal Reserve.
Unemployment
GDP
Consumer Price Index
Manufacturing Utilization
FOMC Policy Decisions
Retail Sales
19Investment TrendsQuarterly
Copyright© 2010 by Real Estate Research Corporation (RERC) and the CCIM Institute.
Mill
ions
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Dec-09
Jun-0
9
Dec-08
Jun-0
8
Dec-07
Jun-0
7
Dec-06
Jun-0
6
Dec-05
Jun-0
5
Dec-04
Jun-0
4
Dec-03
Jun-0
3
Dec-02
Jun-0
2
Dec-01
Jun-0
1
Existing home sales were down more than 16 percent in December after increasing for 3 months. The decline was attributed primarily to the end of the first-time home buyer tax credit, which may have pushed buying in November. Expectations are that sales will pick up again because interest rates and prices are still low, and the credit has been extended through the spring.
Source: NAR.
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
Nov-09
Sep-09
Jul-0
9
May-09
Mar-09
Jan-0
9
Nov-08
Sep-08
Jul-0
8
May-08
Mar-08
Jan-0
8
Nov-07
Sep-07
Jul-0
7
May-07
Mar-07
Jan-0
7
Inde
x
NAR’s affordability index measures whether or not a typical family could qualify for a mortgage on a typical home. A value of 100 means that a family with a median income has exactly enough income to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced home, while a value above 100 signifies there is more than enough income to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced home, assuming a 20-percent down payment.
Source: NAR.
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
Dec-09
Nov-09
Oct-09
Sep-09
Aug-09
Jul-0
9
Jun-0
9
May-09
Apr-09
Mar-09
Feb-09
Jan-0
9
Mon
ths
The December 2009 supply of single family homes was 6.9 months, a 25-percent reduction since the beginning of the year. Despite the reduction overall, the December supply was an increase from the prior month’s 6.2-month supply.
Source: NAR.
20
40
60
80
100
120
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jan-1
0
Jul-0
9
Jan-0
9
Jul-0
8
Jan-0
8
Jul-0
7
Jan-0
7
Jul-0
6
Jan-0
6
Jul-0
5
Jan-0
5
Jul-0
4
Jan-0
4
Jul-0
3
Jan-0
3
Jul-0
2
Jan-0
2
Jul-0
1
Inde
x
Consumer confidence is up more than 120 percent from its February 2009 lows, and up more than 4 percent from last month. Despite these increases, consumer confidence remains low on historical levels.
-6.25
-5.25
-4.25
-3.25
-2.25
-1.25
-0.25
0.75
1.75
-6.25
-5.25
-4.25
-3.25
-2.25
-1.25
-0.25
0.75
1.75
2Q 2009
4Q 2008
2Q 2008
4Q 2007
2Q 2007
4Q 2006
2Q 2006
4Q 2005
2Q 2005
4Q 2004
2Q 2004
4Q 2003
2Q 2003
4Q 2002
2Q 2002
4Q 2001
2Q 2001
4Q 2000
2Q 2000
Perc
ent C
hang
e Q
uart
er A
go
The Commercial Leading Indicator (CLI) increased by nearly 1 percent in third quarter 2009. Although the increase is not large, it is significant in that it is a reversal of the declines during the past year. The CLI factors in 13 variables affecting commercial real estate, such as unemploy-ment, retail sales, and the NAREIT Price Index.
Source: NAR.
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
Jan-1
0
Sep-09
May-09
Jan-0
9
Sep-08
May-08
Jan-0
8
Sep-07
May-07
Jan-0
7
Sep-06
May-06
Jan-0
6
Sep-05
May-05
Jan-0
5
Sep-04
May-04
Jan-0
4
Sep-03
May-03
Jan-0
3
Sep-02
May-02
Jan-0
2
Sep-01
May-01
Jan-0
1
Sep-00
May-00
Jan-0
0Begi
nnin
g of
Mon
th A
djus
ted
Clos
ing
Pric
e
There has been steady improvement in the S&P during the last 3 quarters of 2009, although the S&P 500 ended January 2010 at 1073.87. This was down 3.7 percent from December 2009, but the reading was still up more than 46 percent over the past year.
Source: S&P.
Source: The Conference Board.
Consumer Confidence Housing Affordability
S&P 500 Existing Home Sales
Commercial Leading Indicator Single Family Home Supply
20Investment TrendsQuarterly
Copyright© 2010 by Real Estate Research Corporation (RERC) and the CCIM Institute.
Scope&MethodologyThe analysis provided in the RERC/CCIM Investment Trends Quarterly is conducted by Real Estate Research Corporation (RERC). The information is gathered in raw form from surveys sent to CCIM designees and candidates, and from sales transactions collected from various sources, including CCIM members, various key commercial information exchange organizations (CIEs), the media, assessors’ offices, RERC contacts in the marketplace, and other reliable public and private resources. All sales transactions are aggregated, analyzed, and reported on by RERC. Additional data and forecasts are provided courtesy of the REALTORS® Commercial Alliance and Torto Wheaton Research.
Published quarterly, the RERC/CCIM Investment Trends Quarterly report provides timely insight into transaction volume, pricing, and capitalization rates for the core income-producing properties.
RERC DefinitionsCapitalization Rate: The capitalization rate is defined as the first year “stabilized” net operating income (NOI) (NOI is before capital expenditures – tenant improvements, leasing commissions, reserves – and debt service) divided by the present value (or purchase price). Capitalization rates included are transac-tion-based medians and price-weighted averages.
RERC Capitalization Rate and Ranges: Capitalization rates and ranges listed throughout this report are based on RERC’s proprietary realized capitalization rate model, which includes available transaction-based capitalization rates, NCREIF Index Returns, and other market factors, but is heavily weighted toward transaction-based capitalization rates for each property type within each market.
Price-Weighted Average: The price-weighted average is developed through weighting each asset based on the gross sales price. Therefore, larger dollar properties are given more weight than the smaller dollar properties, with the weighted average reflecting more weight towards institutional real estate.
Size-Weighted Average: The size-weighted average is developed through weighting each asset based on its gross square footage – simply an aggregation of all the gross sales prices divided by the aggregation of the gross square footage.
National/Regional Market Analysis: RERC ranks the investment potential of the metros and property types it covers based on various space market and financial market criteria, including pricing, capitalization rates, vacancy rates, and other factors.
Investment Conditions Rating: A rating of 1 through 10 (with 10 being high) reflecting survey respondents’ collective views of the investment environment for a particular property type in comparison with other property types. The rating may take into account supply and demand, economic conditions, pricing, rental rates, or other factors.
NCREIF DefinitionsNCREIF: The National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF) is an independent organization dedicated to the compilation, validation, and distribution of performance data for the institutional real estate investment community.
Total Return: The total return includes appreciation (or depreciation), realized capital gain (or loss), and income. It is computed by adding the income and capital appreciation return on a quarterly basis.
Implied Cap Rate (Income Return): The implied capitalization rate measures the portion of return attributable to each property’s NOI. It is computed by divid-ing the total NOI by the total quarterly investment.
Capital Appreciation Return: The capital appreciation return measures the change in market value adjusted for any capital improvements/expenditures and partial sales divided by the average quarterly investment.
Annual and Annualized Returns: Annual returns are computed by chain-linking quarterly rates of return to produce time-weighted rates of return for the an-nual and annualized periods under study. For time periods beyond 1 year, the annualized returns are expressed as the annual compounded rate of return.
Allocation: The distribution, expressed as a percentage of the overall investment, in a particular geographic area by property type.
For a detailed description of the proceeding returns, as well as the calculations used by NCREIF to derive these figures, please visit http://www.ncreif.org/indi-ces.
The combined returns are the weighted average of the returns for each property type according to the proportionate market value of properties surveyed relative to the total market values surveyed during a time period.
RERC Defined Regions and MSAsWest: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming
Midwest: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin
South: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas
East: Connecticut, Delaware, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia, Washington D.C., West Virginia
Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA): A geographic unit comprised of one or more counties around a central city or urbanized area with 50,000 or more popu-lation. Contiguous counties are included if they have close social and economic links with the area’s population nucleus.
With a few exceptions, the MSAs within this report coincide with the U.S. Office of Management and Budget’s December 2005 definitions for each MSA. For example, St. Paul, Minn., and Bloomington, Minn., as well as many other suburbs, are included within the Minneapolis MSA.
Note of Caution: It is imperative to exercise caution when comparing the data contained herein to previous reports published by RERC. The data herein is not “fixed,” and will be updated and changed as additional transaction information is gathered and analyzed.
Disclaimer: This publication is designed to provide accurate information in regard to the subject matter covered. It is sold with the understanding that the publisher is not engaged in rendering legal or accounting service. The publisher advises that no statement in this issue is to be construed as a recommendation to make any real estate investment or to buy or sell a security or as investment advice. The examples contained in the publication are intended for use as back-ground on the real estate industry as a whole, not as support for any particular real estate investment or security. Although the RERC/CCIM Investment Trends Quarterly uses only sources that it deems reliable and accurate, Real Estate Research Corporation (RERC) does not warrant the accuracy of the information contained herein.
21Investment TrendsQuarterly
Copyright© 2010 by Real Estate Research Corporation (RERC) and the CCIM Institute.
Acknowledgements
RERC~CCIM Investment Trends Quarterly
RERC Editorial Staff
PublisherKenneth P. Riggs, Jr.CFA®, CRE, FRICS, MAI, CCIM
Editor-in-ChiefBarb Bush
Lead AnalystBrian Velky
Research AnalystsGreg PhilippCliff CarlsonCharles GohrDavid KellyLindsey KuhlmannMorgan Westpfahl
Design EditorMichelle Houlgrave
Data ManagementScott HamerlinckBen NeilDaniel Warner
Production CommitteeTerri Cotter
Research AssistantsJeffrey HarmsAnthony Tholkes
CCIM Institute
PresidentRichard Juge, CCIM
President-ElectFrank Simpson, CCIM
First Vice PresidentLeil Koch, CCIM
TreasurerCraig Blorstad, CCIM
Chief Executive OfficerSusan Groeneveld, CCIM
Copyright Notice for RERC~CCIM Investment Trends Quarterly
Copyright© 2009 by Real Estate Research Corporation (RERC) and the CCIM Institute. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, duplicated, or copied in any form, includ-ing electronic forwarding or copying, xerography, microfilm, or other methods, or incorporated into any information retrieval system, without the written permission of RERC and the CCIM Institute.
Real Estate Research CorporationFounded more than 75 years ago, Real Estate Research Corporation (RERC) was the nation’s first independent real estate firm that specialized in both real estate research and analysis. Recognized as a pioneer in the art of real estate management and for monitoring key sectors of the econ-omy that influence the real estate industry, RERC has retained its place as one of the industry’s leading real estate investment trends analysts through the publication of such reports as Expectations & Market Realities in Real Estate and the RERC Real Estate Report. Today, RERC is known for its research publications and market studies, commercial property valuations, complex consulting assignments, portfolio management and technology services, and independent fiduciary services.
The CCIM InstituteSince 1969, the Chicago-based CCIM Institute has conferred the Certi-fied Commercial Investment Member (CCIM) designation to commercial real estate and allied professionals through an extensive curriculum of 200 classroom hours and professional experiential requirements. Currently, there are 9,000 CCIMs in 1,000 markets in the U.S. and 31 additional coun-tries. Another 7,000 practitioners are pursuing the designation, making the institute the governing body of one of the largest commercial real estate networks in the world. An affiliate of the National Association of Realtors®, the CCIM Institute’s recognized curriculum, networking programs, and powerful technology tools such as the Site To Do Business (site analysis and demographics resource) and CCIMREDEX (commer-cial property data exchange), impact and influence the com-mercial real estate industry. Visit www.ccim.com, www.std-bonline.com, and www.ccimredex.com for more information.
The RERC/CCIM Investment Trends Quarterly is produced by Real Estate Research Corporation (RERC) in association with and for members of the CCIM Institute.
22Investment TrendsQuarterly
Copyright© 2010 by Real Estate Research Corporation (RERC) and the CCIM Institute.
Contributors
Shahid K. Abdulla Broadway National Bank San Antonio, TX
Garry Adams Capital Realty, Inc. Los Angeles, CA
BK Allen BA Realty Advisors Mid-Atlantic
Sydney Anderson Corporate Realty New Orleans, LA
Jay Baker Baker First Commercial Real Estate
Oklahoma City, OK
Wolf Baschung Horizon Realty Los Angeles, CA
Beau Beery AMJ Inc. of Gainesville Gainesville, FL
Elizabeth Belenchia Carroll PropertiesCorporation
South Carolina
Andy Bell Anderson Bell Atlanta, GA
Lydia Bennett Port of Bellingham Seattle, WA
Leslie Biskner Cooperative Business Services
Columbus, OH
Paul Blum RE/MAX Commercial Investment
Phoenix, AZ
William T. Bott Equity AppraisalCompany
Philadelphia, PA
Mark Bratton Colliers Honolulu, HI
Ernest L Brown, IV Grubb & Ellis Company San Antonio, TX
Shane Bull Grubb & Ellis|Thomas Linderman Graham
Raleigh, NC
John Burpee NAI Tampa Bay Tampa, FL
Charles Carmody CB Richard EllisCarmody
Charleston, SC
Ben Cherry Manor Real Estate St. Louis, MO
Piotr Chrzaszcz CommercialMasterMinds
San Francisco, CA
Ralphael Marie Clarke Atlantic Coast Realty Advisors, Inc.
Tampa, FL
Greg Clauson Coldwell Banker Commercial-United, REALTORS
Destin, FL
Coba C. Craig Silvestri-Craig, Realtors Kentucky
Mark Cusick IPMG, Inc. Portland, OR
Andrea Davis NAI Horizon Arizona
Bill Dehlinger KW Commercial-Orlando Orlando, FL
Drew T DeWitt JPMorgan AssetManagement
New York, NY
Bob Dikman The Dikman Company Tampa, FL
David Dunn Sperry Van Ness / Dunn Commercial
Dallas, TX
Jeff Eales Birtcher Anderson Properties
Orange County, CA
John Ehrhardt Buckingham Companies, AMO
Indianapolis, IN
Douglas Erickson Coldwell BankerCommercial SoundVest Properties
Maine
David Feinberg Daum Commercial Real Estate Services
Los Angeles, CA
N. Ross Fisher Fisher Commercial Properties
Detroit, MI
Joel Fulmer Boyle Memphis, TN
Todd Gannet Century 21 Golden Post New York, NY
Paul Gardaphe Q10 | Amegy Mortgage Capital
Houston, TX
Bill Gladstone NAI CIR Pennsylvania
Robert Glaser PICOR Commercial Real Estate Services
Tucson, AZ
Chad Gleason Retail Realty Services Seattle, WA
Alan Grace MDRE Equities Baltimore, MD
Jim Gray NAIBT COMMERCIAL Sacramento, CA
P. Lee Greer, Jr. Sperry Van Ness Lexington, KY
Doug Groppenbacher RE/MAX Commercial Investment
Phoenix, AZ
Ian Grusd Sperry Van NessRichter Grusd
Northern New Jersey
Jack Hayes Jordan-Hart Commercial Real Estate
Columbus, GA
Dennis Hearst Cushman & Wakefield San Diego, CA
Gary Heinfeld Advisors in Real Estate Tucson, AZ
Eric Hillenbrand Sitehawk Retail Real Estate
Indianapolis, IN
Stephen Hodger Bancorp South Bank
22 23Investment TrendsQuarterly
Copyright© 2010 by Real Estate Research Corporation (RERC) and the CCIM Institute.
Contributors Contributors
Charles Hold Midland Equities Chicago, IL
Cindy Hopkins AAA Real Estate & Investments
San Antonio, TX
Gary N. Hunter Capital Financial Seattle, WA
Kevin Huther CB Richard Ellis Boston, MA
Chris Jacobson NorthMarq Bloomington, MN
Park Jaehong Samsung Life Insurance
Michael Jersa Coldwell BankerCommercial
St. Louis, MO
James Katon Integra Realty Resources Charlotte, NC
James Kinsey ERG Property Advisors New York, NY
Matthew Klein Colliers Turley Martin Tucker
Minneapolis, MN
Richard Kos Kos Realy Youngstown/Warren, OH
Kenneth Krawczyk K.S.K. Services Milwaukee, WI
Karl Landreneau NAI Latter and Blum Realtors
New Orleans, LA
Linda S. Larabee Principle EquityProperties
Houston, TX
Scott W Larsen Integra Realty Resources Indianapolis, IN
Gary J. Lee Carter & Associates Atlanta, GA
Chris Leon Realty World Comm
Jonathan Lien WT Mitchell Group San Francisco, CA
Bruce Lindquist KellerWilliamsCommercial
San Diego, CA
Dave Lockard CB Richard Ellis Cincinnati, OH
Jarrod L. Luigs Sperry Van Ness / Martin Commercial Group
Evansville, IN
Stephen Luta Lic. Real Estate Broker Cape Coral, FL
Dennis Lynch Miron Construction Milwaukee, WI
Hal Maxfield Hal Maxfield Real Estate No. Central Ohio
Mike McMahon McMahon Properties San Antonio, TX
Michael Mikelic King Penguin Properties New York, NY
Cory Miller Coldwell BankerCommercial Griffin Companies
Minneapolis, MN
Michael G. Miller M. G. Miller Valuations Richmond, VA
Nicholas L Miner Eagle Commercial Realty Services
Phoenix, AZ
Melissa Molyneaux Colliers International Reno, NV
Joe Morian The Erie CountyInvestment Company
Denver, CO
Molly Mosher-Cates MC Realty Advisors Honolulu, HI
Robert W Nelson Pacwest Real Estate Investments
Eugene, OR
Bruce Newman Proptek Realty, Inc. Miami, FL
E. Taylor Newton King & Newton -Commercial
Springfield, MA
Nick Nicketakis CBS Realtors Chicago, IL
Douglas S. Page Sperry Van Ness High Desert Commercial
Idaho Falls, ID
David L. Parker Goliath Commercial Real Estate
Arizona
Steve Patten The Proto Group North Haven, CT
Bruce Pearson Manulife Financial Chicago, IL
Jacci Perry Coldwell BankerCommercial
Northwest Arkansas
Terry Phillips The Phillips Group, Inc. Portland, OR
Daniel Poulin Sealy & Company New Orleans, LA
Whit Procter Beaufort Realty Eastern North Carolina
Joseph Reich, Jr. The ReichCompany Colorado Springs, CO
Jon Reno The Heger Company Los Angeles, CA
Lenore Reynolds Bruce Strumpf, inc. Tampa, FL
Steven C. Robinson Anthony & Co Raleigh, NC
John Robinson Magnusson Balfour Commercial
Maine
Ivo Romenesko Landmark Realty Group Charlottesville, VA
David Ross Integra Realty Resources - Columbus
Columbus, OH
Richard J. Rossiter Jones Lang LaSalle Orlando, FL
Ricardo Rubiano Rubiano Group Rio Grande Valley in Texas
24Investment TrendsQuarterly
Copyright© 2010 by Real Estate Research Corporation (RERC) and the CCIM Institute.
Contributors
Jeff Ryer Ryer AssociatesCommercial Real Estate
Danbury, CT
James T. Saint Halo Realty &Investments Corporation
Las Vegas, NV
Brandon K Sanders Steve Eustis Co San Angelo, Texas
David Schmid Five Star Development Phoenix, AZ
David Schnitzer Venture Commercial Dallas, TX
Chris Secontine Signature Associates Detroit, MI
Jan Sell Sell & Associates Phoenix, AZ
Bob Shonk KW Commercial Austin, TX
Gregory Spanos Janko Group Chicago, IL
Mike Spears The National Realty Group
Houston, TX
Alan Stamm Century 21 Consolidated Las Vegas, NV
Rob Stefka Commercial Investment Services
North Platte, NE
Mark Storfer Choi International Honolulu, HI
Dewey Struble Sperry Van Ness Reno-Sparks, Nevada
Tami Sturges Metro Gov’t of Nashville & Davidson Cty.
Nashville, TN
Angela Sumner Jack Fowler andAssociates
Phoenix, AZ
Paul Sylvester RE/MAX Masters Los Angeles, CA
Doug Taatjes NAI West Michigan Grand Rapids, MI
Jim Tansey NAI Ruhl & RuhlCommercial Co.
Iowa, Illinois
Brian Tapp NAI Knoxville Knoxville, TN
Cheri Thomas Newmark Knight Frank Nashville, TN
Skeet Thomas DT Properties ofGeorgia, Inc.
Atlanta, GA
Bryson Thomason PMC Greenville, SC
Nick A. Tillema Access Group Indianapolis, IN
Tom Tolrud RE/MAX Tampa, FL
Arthur Triplette CB Richard Ellis Houston, TX
Mark Vellinga Graham Organization South Dakota
Tom Watson RE/MAX of Spokane-Commercial
Seattle, WA
Frank Weiskopf Realty Executives East Tennessee
Richard Wheelock East West Realty Inc. Honolulu, HI
Cheri White SVN Dallas, TX
Charles Wiercluski McLennan Commercial Properties
Chicago, IL
David A. Wilkens Cushman & Wakefield Houston, TX
Alan Wood WWM Real Estate Cleveland, OH
Will Young WP Young & Associates Atlanta, GA
Oscar Zamudio Coldwell BankerCommercial
Chicago, IL
Daniel Zelonker Mizrach RealtyAssociates
Miami, FL
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