CBRFC WFO CallDecember 14, 2010

Outline

• Water Supply Forecast Program Updates• CBRFC Stakeholder Forum Output• CBRFC Projects Update• SH Activities

Water Supply Forecast Update• 2010 verification studies complete and online• La Nina impacts online• CBRFC led monthly webinars begin January 7 (and the 7th of each month through

May)• 30 year averages / statistical equations / ESP calibration time period updates for

WY2011• Major revision planned for WS publication – WFO input especially welcome• Hydrologic ensemble forecast system implementation• Basin Focal Points:

– Green: Ashley Nielson (change for 2011)– Upper Colorado: Brenda Alcorn– San Juan + Gunnison: Tracy Cox– Lower Colorado: Greg Smith– Great: Brent Bernard

• WFO COOP precipitation data as early as possible will help the forecast process

2011 Look Ahead

• Outlook and current situation:– Summer / Fall Precip– Soil Moisture States– Snow States– Climate Forecasts and ENSO

Summer / Fall 2010 Precipitation

Soil Moisture

La Nina

Sources: cpc.ncep.noaa.gov and iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO

• ONI is three month mean of nino3.4

• Current ONI value is -1.5

Objective Consolidation of Tools

ECCA

CFS

FINAL FORECASTOBJECTIVE CONSOLIDATION

TOOLS

TOO

LS

SKILL & SPREAD

wts

SKILL & SPREAD wts

fore-caster

12O’Lenic Oct 26, 2010

CPC’s ObjectiveConsolidation Scheme for 3-Month OutlookModels (tools) Unger et al, 2009, O’Lenic et al, 2008)

1316 Composite Cases: 1950, 51, 55, 56, 68, 71, 74, 75, 76, 85, 89, 96, 99, 00, 01, 08

1415 Composite Cases: 1950, 51, 55, 56, 68, 71, 74, 75, 76, 85, 89, 96, 99, 00, 08

1515 Composite Cases: 1950, 54, 55, 56, 64, 68, 71, 74, 75, 76, 85, 89, 99, 00, 08

1615 Composite Cases: 1950, 54, 55, 56, 64, 71, 73, 74, 75, 85, 88, 89, 99, 00, 08

La Nina and the Upper Colorado

• Some analyses (e.g. Klaus Wolter, right) have shown seasonal teleconnections to precipitation in the Upper Colorado basin

• Possible tendency toward drier fall and spring and wetter winters in La Nina

Credit: Klaus Wolter http://wwa.colorado.edu/IWCS/2010_October.html

La Nina and Streamflow• Very low

correlations in most of upper basin (right: Lake Powell)

• La Nina correlated with low streamflow in lower basin at around 0.2 – 0.3

• Weaker correlations for San Juan Basin with low streamflow and Upper Green with high streamflow

2011 forecast

Average = 7.9 maf

HEFS: with and without Climate Forecast System

forcingsForecast made:

12/9/10

30 year average

• 30 year averages are updated once every 10 years

• Currently using 1971-2000 averages• Update for WY2012 will be based on 1981-

2010 averages• Update will affect both water supply

reference (e.g. percent of normal… normal will change) and forecast numbers (e.g. data input to tools will change)

• Preliminary Data• 18% reduction in mean

• Preliminary Data• 4% reduction in mean

• Preliminary Data• 6% reduction in mean

• Preliminary Data• 6% reduction in mean

• Preliminary Data• 11% reduction in mean

• Preliminary Data• All 30 year means since

1911-1940

• 1981-2010 is the driest 30 year period on record

Affect on Forecasts• WY2011 forecasts will continue to use 1971-2000 means:

• Statistical models (SWS and NRCS) will use 1971-2000• Simulation model (ESP) will use 1976-2005

• WY2012 forecasts will be based on 1981-2010 inputs in both forecast models– ESP and SWS will both use the same period

• SNOTEL network much stronger for 1981-2010 period than in 1970s. This network is critical for forecast skill.

• All things equal, these forecasts will be lower since input data sets are drier in the 30 year average– Especially true in early season forecasts– Later season forecasts more controlled by observed snowpack

• Percent of normal forecast values should remain largely unchanged (since normals AND forecasts will be lower)

CBRFC Stakeholder Forum• 3 Day Event at CBRFC in August 2010• Participants from all over CO basin attended• Main focus on water supply and peak flow forecast needs in the basin• Key requirements from forum:

– Simple ways to communicate forecasts relative to important thresholds– Post-mortems– More info on the 30 year average update– Objective water supply forecast system– Greater CBRFC participation in stakeholder meetings– 2 year forecast for Colorado– Greater transparency in forecast process

• Full report online (under papers and presentations -> reports)• A stakeholder forum of some sort is likely for summer 2011• SH participation encouraged for future stakeholder forums

CBRFC Project Updates

• CHPS migration• Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System

implementation• June 2010 flood event post-mortem analysis

completed (for now) and writing it up• Snow Covered Area project funded• Peak flow forecast verification• Dambreak program• Recreation program

William B. ReedSenior Hydrologist

Colorado Basin River Forecast Center

DamBreak and EAPs

New

New DamBreak Notice on Webpage for sites with EAPs

New

New EAP Code in Record

DAMBREAK PROCEDURES 1. COORDINATE WITH THE WFOFIRST ACTION: DETERMINE IF THERE IS A WARNING OR WATCH OUTBroken: Determine if the WFO has issued a generic Warning. If not, advise that they do.Not Broken: Determine if the WFO has issued a generic Watch. If not, advise that they do.

SECOND ACTION: DETERMINE IF THE WFO HAS AN EMERGENCY ACTION PLAN (EAP) AVAILABLE BY CHECKING DAM CATALOG FOR A 1 OR 2 IN EMERGENCY ACTION BOX 1=EAP AT WFO AND CBRFC, 2=EAP AT WFO ONLY, 0=NO EAP

***STOP! REFER TO EAP FOR ALL INFORMATION, DO NOT USE SIMPLIFIED DAM BREAK FORECASTS

New DamBreak Procedure: Code Defined

SUMMARY OF WHAT IS AT CBRFC

Will provide spreadsheet with 211 EAPs listed.

- Do we have all EAPs for your HSA in CBRFC ? Please provide us with a list of all the EAPs you have in CBRFC area.- Please obtain copy for CBRFC if we do not have it. Will provide spreadsheet listing all we have at this time.- Of those we do have do we have the most recent revision ? Please check spreadsheet I will provide.- Do we have the right HSA defined ? Please check spreadsheet I will provide.- Until we receive hardcopy will list EAP as at WFO only (code 2)

1. Do we have all EAPs for your HSA in CBRFC ? Please provide us with a list of all the EAPs you have in CBRFC areaUsing the spreadsheet provided.

2. Please obtain copy for CBRFC of any EAPs we do not have.

Will provide spreadsheet listing all we have at this time.

3. Of those we do have do we have the most recent revision? Please check spreadsheet.

4. Do we have the right HSA defined? Please check spreadsheet.

5. Please provide spreadsheets by February 1st.

Recreation Program

Goal is to open a better dialogue with recreational users so we understand their requirements and they know about us. We would like to know who are recreational users are and what else we can do for them

To facilitate this, we have bunch of brochures targeted at the recreational community that we would like to distribute to shops and/or organizations frequented by recreationalists.

WE NEED YOUR HELP HERE:Please provide us with a list of recreational users in your area that you know aboutDo you currently have any interactions with this community? If so, we’d like to be involved as appropriate.Are you aware of any opportunities to become more involved with this community?

EMAIL REPLY BY FEBRUARY 1st

WFO Updates

• Please describe:– Project(s) you’d like to share– Issues you’d like to collaborate with other WFOs

and/or CBRFC on solving– Something you’d like to see from CBRFC