CATO INSTITUTE

The Right Road for America

Alan E. Pisarski

NATIONAL TRANSPORTATION POLICY 101

PLEASE BUY CARS – we need to stimulate jobs in a weak economy

BUT WAIT! PLEASE DON’T USE THEM. They create Green House

Gases and bad stuff. We have to coerce people out of their cars (maybe we could use them for lawn ornaments?)

BUT WAIT! If they don’t use them there will be no gas tax revenue

and no way to fund the transit that people will need after we force them from their cars.

Would you mind mailing a check for the gas tax you would have paid if you had used your car?

Please make payable to US Treasury!

--THE NEXT REAUTHORIZATION --THE PRESENT IMPASSE IS NOT NEW

Whenever there is no money the talk is about federal roles and policy

Whenever there is no money the talk turns to “being innovative!”

When the money shows up the talk stops; we all go home and go to work

IF THE CONGRESS PASSED A 10¢ (or 5¢) a gallon gas tax we would call it a plan”

Next Reauthorization Finance, Finance, Finance Stimulus package a factor Tolling, congestion pricing disliked

by leadership but few options More afraid of gas tax increases Is private sector still ready with $$$ Devolution by Default ??

Next Reauthorization

Maybe reorg DOT away from modes to “functional structure” = intercity; metro

Metro mobility = transit, bike, walk Intercity; HSR, tourism weak “Performance Based” New focus on land use policies Embrace Coercion!

SOME HISTORY

Most histories mark 1956 as the start of the Interstate – actually the Interstate idea predates WW II.

1956 is the date that the funding plan was set in place by Congress.

The Interstate story begins with a sketch by FDR in 1937

Refined throughout the war years

THE FUNDING CONCEPT The system was to be funded by “user

charges” paid into a Trust Fund The fundamental principle: Users should pay for their use of the system

AND government should dedicate the funds to the care and improvement of the

roads users ride on. The entire concept, which has very

effective controls built in, is being lost RAPIDLY!

We also got: A system capable of attracting support -- And repelling diversions The “flag-ship” of the national program Now no such flag ship program exists And it shows in the 3 “interim”

reauthorizations since 1991 A funding system without a clear

national purpose

ARE WE ON THE CUSP OF A NEW ERA?

End of the Post-Interstate Interim? Start of the what? The Post-Post-Interstate Era! A Crisis of Goals – A Crisis of Finance

or just the usual problems? Congress believes there is no problem

so big it can’t be run away from!

THE PERFECT POLICY STORM?

Time of Intense Need for $$$$$ Time Of Intense Anti-auto, Anti-mobility Plans

and Policies Time Of Strong Policy Cover by Pricing Theory Result:

Punitive Pricing in a “Good Cause.” Decline of User Fee cornerstone to funding Cash-Cow-ification of Tolls and User Fees

Few things are as frightening as when government can be seen to be doing good by taxing something.

Issues with public’s choices “Too much” transportation spending Low income are transportation poor Transportation trade-off with housing loses Job “sprawl” a problem We all must come home to the center city

Is the public coerced by circumstances or just making dumb choices?

Is this serious and real or just reauthorization hype?

TWO REACTIONS TO $4 GAS HURRAY!

Schadenfreude! Those

suburbanites had it coming!

At last we are at “the Tipping Point”

Now there will be a rush to the city center of people and jobs

BOO ! Less VMT = social

and economic interactions lost

Now is the worst time to be cutting economic activity

What am I defending ? I am defending the personal

vehicle/road system - where the owner determines when and where it goes and who goes along!

I am not defending the internal combustion engine or any particular motive power!

The term “Personal Vehicle” is right; Personal vs Mass!

Does the personal vehicle need defending? It doesn’t seem like it!

The public doesn’t think so.

All trends support the personal vehicle.

In 40 years of commuting we added 66 million commuters and 70 million auto users!

The auto wins the market debate but not the policy debate

long term mode share trend

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2007

PRIVATE VEH

PUBLIC TRANS

WALK/HOME

“WHAT % OF TRAVEL IS FRIVOLOUS?”A congressional question to me; 1979

People travel for rational reasons

All trips have an economic or social transaction at their end of value to the traveler (and to Society)

If your transportation goals can be met by everyone staying home – RETHINK YOUR GOALS!

Slow Decay of User Principle

Spending Transit share Enhancements Earmarks Local Needs High Speed Rail

Revenue $8 billion Trust

Fund bailout $6 billion Trust

Fund bailout $26 billion future

bailout

PROTECT THE FED USER FEE

“…not only are we likely to be in the twi-light between gas taxes and in-vehicle pricing for a long time – it is good that we will be in that twi-light for a long time.” AEP

The “Post-Gas Tax Era” is not yet! (20yrs?)

We must prepare for it but continue to defend what we have.

$1.7 billion per penny still has the power to attract sharks.

As long as Congress has the power to tax gasoline it must be dedicated to highway needs

That sets the upper limit on fuel fees. Without dedication there is no upper

limit on federal gas tax (see any European country).

Feds very efficient tax collector; hire them?

Continued diversion ends support for new fees.

There is no way to assure no federal gas tax –Firewall and RABA are the best we have!

Let the gas tax dwindle? Fit the program

The policy conflict = opposed thinking about the world

Neighborhood Shorter trips Walk/bike Land use solutions Design What’s freight? Accessibility Public Mass Behavior change Make it happen

Globally Integrated Longer trips Broad “community” Choices Market forces Major role for freight Mobility Private Personalized Technological fix Let it happen

The focus on changing behavior diverts us from the real issues

Enhancing Economic Opportunities Access To Workers; Access To Jobs Mainstreaming Minorities Improving Safety Serving An Aging Population Greater Freedom Of Mobility Infrastructure Reconstruction More!

Summing up: threats & opportunities

Threats Policies to penalize

Dispersed jobs Dispersed households

Policies to promote Higher density “Organized” society

Subsidies to Recentralize Promote density

Opportunities Jobs moving closer to

skilled workers Increased mobility Promote greater job

access Live where you want

work where you want

There is no fear they will succeed but the waste in time and $$ will be disastrous

THANK YOU

alanpisarski@alanpisarski.com

WE HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO CARE GREATLY ABOUT TRANSPORTATION!

Transportation is all about reducing the time and cost penalties of distance on our economic and social interactions.

To the extent that nations succeed in that function they enable tremendous forces of economic opportunity, social cohesion and national unity.