Catch to ConsumptionChris Barrett and Teevrat Garg, Cornell University

Sept. 4, 2014, Harvard University Center for the Environment

Outline Adapt an existing model that couples exogenous climate

drivers, wildlife population dynamics and endogenous human food consumption and resource use behaviors [Barrett & Arcese, 1998]

Use own-, cross-price and income elasticity of demand estimates and budget shares from existing literature and secondary dietary data to estimate shocks to fish stock on consumption, labor effort, etc.

Simulate on a global scale to identify places most vulnerable to major food consumption shifts – and malnutrition – in response to shocks to fish stocks

… or other shocks (e.g., crop productivity, prices, jobs)

Barrett & Arcese (1998 LE)Dynamic model of farmer effort allocation

coupled to wildlife population dynamics and exogenous weather shocks

Endogenous, time-varying demand for game meat, farm foods, non-food goods, and leisure, labor allocation between poaching and farming

Simulate w/ and w/o trade

Simulate time to crisis Adapt to fisheries and global scale for

spatiotemporally specific behavioral and nutrient intake response

Elasticity EstimatesElasticity = % change in outcome variable in response to

1% change in independent variable

How will prices react to a production shock?

How will incomes respond to a production shock?

How will households respond to price and income changes? Change in consumption of good experiencing supply shock? Indirect income/cross-price effects on other goods? What behavioral responses might feed back on supporting

resource base and subsequent periods’ food supplies?