Upload
others
View
5
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Energy Technology Perspectives 2017 Catalysing Energy Technology Transformations
Juho Lipponen, Head of CCS Unit, Acting Head of ETP DivisionLuis Munuera Energy Analyst ETP Division
IEA© OECD/IEA 2017
Luis Munuera, Energy Analyst, ETP Division
Spanish Energy Club, Madrid, 14 September 2017
Outline
1. IEA & some key energy trendsy gy2. ETP energy modelling 3 Energy Technology Perspectives 20173. Energy Technology Perspectives 2017
© OECD/IEA 2017
The International Energy Agency (IEA)
Founded by 17 OECD countries, including Spain, in wake of 1974 oil crisis to promote energy security, cooperation & stable markets
Leading energy market and technology analysis & data to help governments &Leading energy market and technology analysis & data, to help governments & industry make good energy choices
Increased industry involvement, led by CEO-level Energy Business Council
Management focused on a 3-pillar modernisation programme
“Opening the doors” of the IEA
Broadened approach to energy security
A global hub for clean energy technologies & energy efficiency
© OECD/IEA 2017
IEA global engagement
© OECD/IEA 2017This map is without prejudice to the status of sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries, and to the name of any territory, city or area.
Key trends and starting points
• Global energy markets are changing rapidly• Global energy markets are changing rapidlyRenewables supplied half of global electricity demand growth in 2016, and increase in nuclear capacity reached highest level since 1993
Global energy intensity improved by 2.1% in 2016
Electric car sales were up 40% in 2016, a new record year
• The energy sector remains key to sustainable economic growth1.2B people lack access to electricity; 2.7B people lack access to clean cooking
Largest source of GHG emissions today, around two-thirds of global total
Largest source of air pollution, linked to 6.5 million premature deaths per year
h l b h f f l b l
© OECD/IEA 2017
• There is no single story about the future of global energyFast-paced technological progress and changing energy business models
Global CO2 emissions flat for 3 years – an emerging trend?
30
35Gt
Global energy-related CO2 emissions
20
25
30
5
10
15
5
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 2015 2016
© OECD/IEA 2017
IEA analysis shows that global CO2 emissions remained flat in 2016 for the third year in a row, even though the global economy grew.
Global CO2 emissions flat for 3 years
10Gt CO2
Average annual GDP growth 2014‐2016
+1.1% +1.8% +6.7%
‐0.2%
+7.4%+2.1% +1.2%
6
82014
2015
2016
% A l CO‐3.1%
2
4% Average annual CO2
growth 2014‐2016
‐1.9%+1.0%
+4.8%
1 1%
Japan
+1.0%
Germany China IndiaUnitedStates
Canada
‐1.1%
© OECD/IEA 2017
Two largest emitters, the US and China, have reduced emissions since 2014, with the main drivers being switching from coal to gas, renewables & nuclear in the power sector
What the IEA does on energy technology
1. Where do we need to go?
2. Where are we today?
3. How do we get there?
© OECD/IEA 2017
The potential of clean energy technology remains underutilised
S l PV d h i dEnergy storage
Solar PV and onshore wind
Other renewable powerElectric vehicles
●On track
Other renewable power Nuclear
Transport – Fuel economy of light‐duty vehicles Energy‐intensive industrial processes
●Accelerated improvement needed
Lighting, appliances and building equipment Energy intensive industrial processes
Carbon capture and storage More efficient coal‐fired power
Building construction Transport biofuels
p g●Not on track
© OECD/IEA 2017
Recent progress in some clean energy areas is promising, but many technologies still need a strong push to achieve their full potential and deliver a sustainable energy future.
EVs are still on track,
Evolution of the global BEV and PHEV stock, 2010-2016
2 000PHEV
BEV
O h
1 000
1 500
cles on the road
sand
s)
Others
Germany
France
United Kingdom
500
1 000
Num
ber o
f veh
ic(Tho
us Netherlands
Norway
Japan
USA
02010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
China
EV Growth Rate
© OECD/IEA 2017
The global PEV car stock has reached 2 million units in circulation last year,
EVs are still on track, but need continued support
Evolution of the global BEV and PHEV stock, 2010-2016
200%2 000PHEV
BEV
O h
100%
150%
1 000
1 500
cles on the road
sand
s)
Others
Germany
France
United Kingdom
50%
100%
500
1 000
Num
ber o
f veh
ic(Tho
us Netherlands
Norway
Japan
USA
0%02010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
China
EV Growth Rate
© OECD/IEA 2017
The global PEV car stock has reached 2 million units in circulation last year, but sales growth went from 70% last year to 40% this year, suggesting an increasing risk to start diverging from a 2DS trajectory.
Solar PV and Wind are still leading the transition…
Electricity generation of selected renewable power generation technologies
1 200PV
2 400
Onshore Wind
600
800
1 000
Wh 1 200
1 600
2 000
TWh
0
200
400
TW
0
400
800
T
02000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
02000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Data Forecast Target
© OECD/IEA 2017
Solar PV and onshore wind electricity generation are expected to grow by 2.5 times and by 1.7 times, respectively, over 2015-20.
… but can’t make up for other low-carbon generation sources
i iTotal renewable power generation by region
35%
40%
12 000
14 000Rest of Non-OECD
BrazilHistorical Forecast Targets
25%
30%
35%
8 000
10 000
12 000
able
Gen
erat
ion
atio
n (T
Wh) India
China
OECD Europe
10%
15%
20%
4 000
6 000
hare
of
Rene
wa
Gen
era OECD Europe
OECD Asia Oceania
OECD Americas
0%
5%
0
2 000
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2025
Sh
Share of renewable generation
Share of renewable generation 2025
in the 2DS
in the 2DS
© OECD/IEA 2017
While renewable power additions keep breaking records, they need to grow much faster to reach the 2DS electricity generation targets. Progress on early-stage technologies also needs to accelerate.
Outline
1. IEA & some key energy trendsy gy2. ETP energy modelling 3 Energy Technology Perspectives 20173. Energy Technology Perspectives 2017
© OECD/IEA 2017
Outline
1. IEA & some key energy trendsy gy2. ETP energy modelling 3 Energy Technology Perspectives 20173. Energy Technology Perspectives 2017
© OECD/IEA 2017
The global challenge: Climbing down the mountain
30
40
Milla
res
“Getting to the top is optional.
Getting down is mandatory.”Ed Viesturs
20
30
CO2
Ed Viesturs
10
Gt
© OECD/IEA 2017
01900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050
2DS
And technology transitions in the energy sector are slow
Data from Smil (2010) and IEA (2015), 2DS scenario
© OECD/IEA 2017
Material demands…
Industry
Fuel/heat delivery
Space heatingWater heating
Lighting…Fuel conversion
Passenger mobilityFreight transport
Buildings
Freight transport…
Transport
Electricity T&D
© OECD/IEA 2017
ETP-TIMES (bottom-up optimisation)
From now to 2060, in 28-36 regions around the world
© OECD/IEA 2017
How far can technology take us?
Technology area contribution to global cumulative CO reductions
40
Efficiency 40%
Technology area contribution to global cumulative CO2 reductions
Efficiency 34%
Global CO2 reductions by technology area
Reference Technology Scenario – RTS
0 200 400Gt CO2 cumulative reductions in 2060
20
30
CO2
Efficiency 40%
Renewables 35%
Fuel switching 5%
Efficiency 40%
Renewables 35%Fuel switching
Efficiency 34%
Renewables 15%
Fuel switching 18%
2 degrees Scenario – 2DS
10
20
GtC Fuel switching 5%
Nuclear 6%
CCS 14%
5%Nuclear 6%
CCS 14%
Fuel switching 18%
Nuclear 1%
CCS 32%
Beyond 2 degrees Scenario – B2DS
02014 2020 2030 2040 2050
CCS 14%CCS 32%
© OECD/IEA 2017
Pushing energy technology to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 could meet the mid-point of the range of ambitions expressed in Paris.
The future is electric
Global final electricity demandChange in final electricity
40 000
50 000
Statistics
RTS
2DS
Global final electricity demand demand in 2060
6 000
8 000
30 000
TWh
2DS
B2DS
0
2 000
4 000
Wh
Transport
Agriculture
Services
10 000
20 000
‐4 000
‐2 000
T
Residential
Industry
01971 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
‐8 000
‐6 000
2DS vs RTS B2DS vs 2DS
© OECD/IEA 2017
Electricity becomes on a global level the largest final energy carrier in the 2DS and B2DS, with the electricity share in final energy use more than doubling compared to today, up to 41% in the B2DS in 2060.
Electricity demand
Ch i fi l l i i
4 000
6 000
8 000
Transport
Change in final electricitydemand in 2060
40 000
50 000Transport
Agriculture
4 000
‐2 000
0
2 000
4 000
TWh
Agriculture
Services
Residential
Industry10 000
20 000
30 000
TWh
g
Services
Residential
‐8 000
‐6 000
‐4 000
2DS vs RTS B2DS vs 2DS
y
0
10 000
RTS 2DS B2DS
2014 2060
Industry
© OECD/IEA 2017
Enhanced energy efficiency in buildingsEnergy use in the buildings sector under different scenarios
2014(123 EJ)
RTS 2060(157 EJ)
B2DS 2060(112 EJ)
Electricity ElectricityElectricity
112 EJ157 EJ123 EJ 31% 54% 61%
Fossil fuels Traditional biomass Renewables Other Electricity
© OECD/IEA 2017
Efficiency technologies can provide the same level of comfort while reducing energy demand despite doubling floor area.
Can we push up the low-carbon power deployment pace?Average capacity additions in different periods in the B2DSg p y p
2030‐2060
Last year
2017‐2030
Last Decade
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700GW per year
Fossil CCS (Incl.BECCS) Nuclear Hydro Wind Solar PV Other renewables
© OECD/IEA 2017
Recent successes in solar and wind will have to be extended to all low-carbon solutions, and brought to a scale never experienced before.
Decarbonising electricity
Global electricity generation B2DS Generation mixOther
Wind
STE500
600Global electricity generation B2DS
50 000
60 000Generation mix
80%
100%Renewables
Bioenergy with CCS
Solar PV
Biofuels and waste
Hydro
Nuclear
300
400
gCO2/kW
h
30 000
40 000
TWh
40%
60%Nuclear
Coal with CCS
Nuclear
Coal with CCS
Coal
Oil0
100
200
0
10 000
20 000
20%
Coal w/o CCS
Gas with CCS
Gas (incl. oil) w/o CCS
‐10 0002014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Natural gas with CCS
Natural gas
CO2 intensity‐ 100
00 0%RTS 2DS B2DS
2014 2060
© OECD/IEA 2017
Renewables dominate electricity generation in the 2DS and B2DS. Thanks to bioenergy with CCS, the average global CO2 intensity falls below zero after 2050.
Power sector key for deep decarbonisation of the energy systemCO2 reductions in the power sector in the B2DS relative to the 2DSCO2 educt o s t e po e secto t e S e at e to t e S
© OECD/IEA 2017
The power sector provides around 40% of the cumulative CO2 reductions across all sectors to move from the RTS to the B2DS, with renewables being responsible for more than half of the reductions in the power sector.
How much investments are needed in the power sector?
Average annual investments
1 600
1 800
2 000
n
Electricity networks
BECCS
Average annual investments
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
USD
billion
Renewables
Fossil CCS
Nuclear
200
400
600
800Gas w/o CCS
Coal w/o CCS
0
200
Statistics RTS 2DS B2DS RTS 2DS B2DS RTS 2DS B2DS RTS 2DS B2DS
2015 2017‐2030 2031‐2040 2041‐2050 2051‐2060
© OECD/IEA 2017
Total investments of USD 65 trillion are needed in the B2DS in the power sector, an increase of USD 23 trillion compared to the RTS and USD 6 trillion to the 2DS.
Renewables: Becoming the dominant electricity source
© OECD/IEA 2017
Renewables cover almost 75% of all electricity demand in 2060, account for 53% of the cumulative power sector CO2 reductions in the B2DS and require 78% of the cumulative investment needs for power generation.
CCS: Slow progress today, but huge potential in the future
© OECD/IEA 2017
CCS provides 20% of the cumulative CO2 reductions in the B2DS (relative to the RTS), with BECCS accounting for more than 40% of the cumulative reductions from CCS and for half of the CCS investment.
Nuclear: Doubling of global capacity in the B2DS
© OECD/IEA 2017
With its share reaching 15% by 2060 in the B2DS, nuclear provides around 10% of the cumulative CO2reductions to move from the RTS to the B2DS and requires 5% of the power sector investments in the B2DS.
Infrastructure needs for the transformation
1959 2014 2060?
© OECD/IEA 2017
Systems Integration is essential for a sustainable energy future
Centralised fuel production,power and storagepower and storage
© OECD/IEA 2017
We need to move away from a one-directional energy delivery philosophy
Renewable energy resourcesCo-generation
Systems Integration is essential for a sustainable energy future
Centralised fuel production,power and storagepower and storage
Distributed
Smart energysystem control
Distributedenergy resources
EVSurplus heat
H vehicle2
© OECD/IEA 2017
EV
We need to move away from a one-directional energy delivery philosophy to a digitally-enhanced, multidirectional and integrated system that requires long-term planning for services delivery.
A different need for power sector infrastructure in deep decarbonisation scenarios
1 400
1 600 Other non‐OECD
Middle East and Africa
600
800
1 000
1 200
SD/year
Other developing Asia
Latin America (excl. Chile)
India
0
200
400
600
Generation T&D Generation T&D Generation T&D
Billion
US
China
Other OECD
EUGeneration T&D Generation T&D Generation T&D
2016 2017‐2050 2050‐60 US
© OECD/IEA 2017
Investments in power sector infrastructure accelerate in the final decade to 2060
Where distribution networks are hubs for smartness and integration
60%
70%
80%
250
300
350
Distribution
30%
40%
50%
150
200
250
S (2015) billion
Transmission
0%
10%
20%
0
50
100
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 20 25 30 35
US
Share ofdistribution
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
201
201
201
201
201
201
202
202
203
203
© OECD/IEA 2017
Infrastructure becomes more distributed
Installed battery storage and costs under various scenariosInstalled battery storage and costs under various scenarios
700
800
900
1000
50 000
60 000All other sectors
400
500
600
700
30 000
40 000
USD
/kWh
GWh
EV batteries
Battery costs,
100
200
300
400
10 000
20 000
U 2DS
Battery costs, B2DS
002000 2015 2030 2045 2060 2015 2030 2045 2060
2DS B2DS
© OECD/IEA 2017
Batteries experience a huge scale-up in the B2DS, with EV battery markets leading other sectors in size
While the impact of storage could be disruptive, it remains highly uncertain
Globally installed non pumped hydro Gl b ll i ll d l i i (G )Globally installed non-pumped hydro electricity storage (GW)
200
250
3,5
4,0
Globally installed electricity storage (GW)
150
200
W2,0
2,5
3,0
GW
50
100
GW
0 5
1,0
1,5
G
02016 2020 2025
non-PHS Storage Pumped Hydropower Storage
0,0
0,5
2011 2014 2016
© OECD/IEA 2017
Positive market and policy trends supported a year-on-year growth of over 50% for non-pumped hydro storageBut near-term storage needs will remain largely answered by existing or planned pumped hydro capacity
Smart infrastructure can make demand part of the solution
2060
With standard charging
watts
2045
2030
Today
Gigaw
2060
With smart charging
0 Hours
© OECD/IEA 2017
Smart EV charging infrastucture, smart meters and remote load control devices have a huge potential for low cost flexibility – but there are uncertainties on diffusion and scale-up
Transmission investment needs to be scaled up, particularly international interconnectors
Central AmericaCentral AmericaEurope and North Africa
h
© OECD/IEA 2017
This map is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area
Rigorous analysis of current technology and potential deployment trends in key regions
South East Asia North East Asia
Investment in transmission grids needs to accelerate to reach COP goals
Transmission investment needs to be scaled up, particularly international interconnectors
© OECD/IEA 2017
Transmission will account for 40% of all electricity grid investment needs; half of all transmission lines will have to be replaced between now and 2040
Can we change the landscape of transport ?Vehicle sales and technology shares under different scenarios
Sales of Light-duty Vehicles (millions)
200
2 500
3 000
B2DS stock of LDVs
F l ll
80
120
160
1 500
2 000
2 500
lion vehicles
Fuel cell
Battery electric
Plug‐in electric
Hybrids
0
40
80
2015 RTS 2060 B2DS 20600
500
1 000
2015 2060
Mil CNG/LPG
Diesel ICE
Gasoline ICE
2015 RTS ‐ 2060 B2DS ‐ 2060 2015 2060
© OECD/IEA 2017
The transportation sector already experiences technological change,but won’t shed its oil dependency without assertive policies
Heavy duty transport: no easy routes
© OECD/IEA 2017
Capillary lines are a mature technology than needs policy driven rollout whereas fuels cells still need innovation and R&D but less infrastructure
IEA© OECD/IEA 2017
Can we produce enough sustainable biomass ?Bioenergy use by sector
125
150
Transport
gy y
75
100
EJ
Industry
Buildings
25
50 Agriculture
Fuel transformation
0RTS 2DS B2DS
2014 2060
Power
© OECD/IEA 2017
Around 145 EJ of sustainable bioenergy is available by 2060 in all our decarbonisation scenarios, but gets used differently between the 2DS and the B2DS.
Can we produce materials more sustainably ?Energy use and direct CO2 emissions in various industrial sectors under different scenarios
10
12
250
300Other industries
Pulp and paper
4
6
8
100
150
200
Gt C
O2
EJ
Aluminium
Chemicals and petrochemicals
0
2
4
0
50
100
Cement
Iron and steel
2014 2030 2060 2030 2060
RTS B2DSDirect CO2 emissions
© OECD/IEA 2017
Effective policies and public-private collaboration are needed to enable an extensive roll out of energy and material efficiency strategies as well as a suite of innovative technologies.
A challenging task ahead for CCS
A t f CO t d d i i
10 000
12 000Rest of world
EU
Amount of CO2 captured under various scenarios
6 000
8 000
Mt C
O₂
EU
IND
CHN
2 000
4 000CHN
MEA
USA
20
40
Mt C
O₂
02030 2060 2030 2060
Today 2DS B2DS
USA0Today
© OECD/IEA 2017
CCS is happening today,CCS is happening today, but needs to be ramped up hundreds of times to achieve long-term goalsThe role for CCS varies based on local circumstances.
Opportunities for policy action
• Approaches to technological innovation have to be tailored to the development status of specific• Approaches to technological innovation have to be tailored to the development status of specific low-carbon power technologies. RD&D has to take an integrated view of power systems in its design and operation, exploring stronger linkages among electricity, heat and mobility.
• Strong carbon pricing policies are needed. On their own, however, carbon prices are unlikely to be St o g ca bo p c g po c es a e eeded. O t e o , o e e , ca bo p ces a e u e y to besufficient to deliver the necessary investment in time or at scale. Carbon prices should be complemented by technology support measures to reduce investment risks.
• With both increased electrification and greater supply from VRE sources, opportunities to boost the flexibility and reliability of electricity systems should be explored and exploited. Assessment of the potential should be based on local conditions and roadmaps for implementation.
• Coal-fired power generation without CCS becomes unsustainable in the 2DS and B2DS by 2040-45 increasing the risk that coal plants built in the near term become stranded assets At a45, increasing the risk that coal plants built in the near term become stranded assets. At a minimum, new coal plants that are built should be CCS-ready. Fostering research for higher capture rates at coal-fired plants equipped with CCS may extend their use under more stringent climate targets.
• BECCS in power generation needs to be demonstrated on a commercial scale to gain experience.
© OECD/IEA 2017
BECCS in power generation needs to be demonstrated on a commercial scale to gain experience. RD&D for BECCS in the power sector should focus on improving the efficiency of smaller plants, which are likely to be required due to constraints on bioenergy sourcing.
Conclusions
• Early signs point to changes in energy trajectories helped by• Early signs point to changes in energy trajectories, helped by policies and technologies, but progress is too slow
• An integrated systems approach considering all technology• An integrated systems approach considering all technology options must be implemented now to accelerate progress
• Each country should define its own transition path and scale-• Each country should define its own transition path and scaleup its RD&D and deployment support accordingly
• Achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 would require• Achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 would require unprecedented technology policies and investments
• Innovation can deliver but policies must consider the full
© OECD/IEA 2017
Innovation can deliver, but policies must consider the full technology cycle, and collaborative approaches can help
Global clean energy RD&D spending needs a strong boost
40
ion 40
ion
Global clean energy RD&D spending
40
ion Mission Mission
Top 3 IT company R&D spenders
20
30
D (201
6) billi
20
30
D (201
6) billi
20
30
D (201
6) billi
InnovationInnovation
0
10
2012 2015
USD
0
10
2012 2015
USD
0
10
2012 2021
USD
2012 2015
Private Public Top 3 firms
2012 2015
Private Public Top 3 firms
2012 2021
Private Public Top 3 firms
© OECD/IEA 2017
Global RD&D spending in efficiency, renewables, nuclear and CCS plateaued at $26 billion annually, coming mostly from governments.
Global RD&D spending in efficiency, renewables, nuclear and CCS plateaued at $26 billion annually,coming mostly from governments.
Mission Innovation could provide a much needed boost.
IEA Technology Collaboration Programmes (TCPs)
Spain participates in 17 TCPs:Spain participates in 17 TCPs:38 TCPs five groups: Spain participates in 17 TCPs:- Cross‐cutting: 1- End use and energy efficiency: 7- Fossil fuels: 3
Spain participates in 17 TCPs:- Cross‐cutting: 1- End use and energy efficiency: 7- Fossil fuels: 3
38 TCPs, five groups:• Cross‐cutting activities (2)• End use and energy efficiency (14)
F il f l (5) Fossil fuels: 3- Renewables: 6 Fossil fuels: 3
- Renewables: 6 • Fossil fuels (5)• Fusion power (8)• Renewable energy and hydrogen (9)
Close to 6,000 experts
More than 2,000 topics to date
Nearly 300 public or private organisationsNearly 300 public or private organisations
52 countries
38 Technology Collaboration Programmes
4 i t t l i ti
© OECD/IEA 2017
4 intergovernmental organisations
This map is without prejudice to the status of sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries, and to the name of any territory, city or area. Experts from countries shown above participate in activities of the Technology Collaboration Programmes.
© OECD/IEA 2017
IEA is the host of the Clean Energy Ministerial Secretariat
www iea orgwww.iea.orgIEA www.iea.org/statistics
© OECD/IEA 2017