CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014 3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data B.V. Jackson, H.-S. Yu, P.P. Hick, A. Buffington University of California at San Diego,

CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014

3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data

B.V. Jackson, H.-S. Yu, P.P. Hick, A. BuffingtonUniversity of California at San Diego, LaJolla, California, United States

Masayoshihttp://smei.ucsd.edu/ http://ips.ucsd.edu/

D. OdstrcilGeorge Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia, United States

S. Hong, J. KimKorean Space Weather Center, Jeju, South Korea

M. TokumaruNagoya University, Japan

(Email: [email protected])

3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data for Space Weather Forecasting

CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014


B.V. Jackson, H.-S. Yu, P.P. Hick, A. BuffingtonUniversity of California at San Diego, LaJolla, California, United States

Masayoshihttp://smei.ucsd.edu/ http://ips.ucsd.edu/

D. OdstrcilGeorge Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia, United States

S. Hong, J. KimKorean Space Weather Center, Jeju, South Korea

M. TokumaruNagoya University, Japan

(Email: [email protected])

3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data for Space Weather Forecasting

CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014


Data Sets/Analyses:Interplanetary scintillation (IPS) mainly from STELab, Japan, Thomson scattering from the Solar Mass Ejection Imager (SMEI)

Heliospheric Tomography:3-D Heliospheric Tomography (a fit to data – a time-dependent heliospheric view from a single observer location)

Speeds and densities from the IPS, vector fields from solar surface magnetic field maps

Current Applications:A technique used to drive 3D-MHD models – ENLIL

Future:Accurate, autonomous, continuously verifiable analyses.

Introduction:

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Interplanetary Scintillation (IPS) analysis

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STELab IPS array near Mt. Fuji

DATA

STELab IPS array systems

IPS Heliospheric Analyses (STELab)

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IPS line-of-sight response

DATA

STELab IPS array systems

IPS Heliospheric Analyses (STELab)

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New STELab IPS array in Toyokawa (3,432 m2 array now operates well – year-round operation began in 2011)

Current STELab Toyokawa IPS System

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Other Current Operating IPS Radio Systems

The Pushchino Radio Observatory 70,000 m2 110 MHz array, Russia (summer 2006) Now named the “Big Scanning Array of the Lebedev Physical Institute” (BSA LPI).

The Ootacamund (Ooty), India off-axis parabolic cylinder 530 m long and 30 m wide (15,900 m2) operating at a nominal frequency of 326.5 MHz.

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MWA (Western Australia)

Other and Potential Future IPS systems

(32 tiles are now operating. The full array 128 tiles can

obtain some IPS data.)

LOFAR (Western Europe)

(Some parts of the system are now operating - Richard Fallows, Mario Bisi are

involved. IPS/FR tests are ongoing.)

MEXART (Mexico) KSWC (South Korea)

Dedicated IPS 700 m2 327 MHz IPS radio 32 tile array,

Jeju Island

Dedicated IPS IPS 9,600 m2 140 MHz IPS radio array near Michoacan, Mexico

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Sample outward motion over time

Heliospheric C.A.T. analyses: example line-of-sight distribution for each sky location to form the source surface of the 3D reconstruction.

IPS line-of-sight response Jackson, B.V., et al., 2008, Adv. in Geosciences, 21, 339-360.

STELab IPS

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IPS C.A.T. AnalysisBastille Day Event 14 July 2000

Jackson, B.V., et al., 2002, Solar Wind 10, 31

IPS Density Remote View

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IPS Density Ecliptic Cut

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IPS Velocity Ecliptic Cut

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3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data Zhao, X. P. and Hoeksema, J. T., 1995, J. Geophys. Res., 100 (A1), 19.

http://ips.ucsd.edu/ Magnetic Field Extrapolation

1. Inner region: the CSSS model calculates the magnetic field usingphotospheric measurements and a horizontal current model.

2. Middle region: the CSSS model opens the field lines. In the outer region.

3. Outer region: the UCSD tomography convects the magnetic field along velocity flow lines.

Dunn et al., 2005, Solar Physics 227: 339–353.

Jackson, B.V., et al., 2012, Adv. in Geosciences, 30, 93-115.

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IPS forecasts

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UCSD IPS analysis

Web Analysis Runs Automatically Using Linux on a P.C.

http://ips.ucsd.edu/

UCSD Web pages

Real-Time Forecasts Jackson, B.V., et al., 2011, Adv. in Geosciences, 30, 93-115.

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Forecast


http://ips.ucsd.edu/

One CME just passed 2013/05/14 4-6 UT increase by ~8 Np/cc


Fit to CELIAS data

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Forecasthttp://ips.ucsd.edu/




Fit to CELIAS data

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Pearson’s r correlation coefficient, day to day forecast verification Pearson’s r correlation coefficient, day to day forecast verification

Correlations (from UCSD forecast)

Jackson, B.V., et al., 2010, Solar Phys., 265, 245-256.


Five day behind “aftcast” One day ahead forecast

Velocity Density Velocity Density

Velocity matched to ACE, density matched to CELIASRemote velocity from STELab IPS three-site

Remote density from STELab IPS g-level

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http://ips.ucsd.edu/ Earth Radial and Tangential Magnetic Field

Jackson, B.V., et al., 2012, Adv. in Geosciences, (in press).

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Pearson’s r correlation coefficient, day to day forecast verification

Correlations (from UCSD forecast)


Five day behind “aftcast” One day ahead forecast

Bradial Btangential Bradial Btangential

RTN coordinates

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3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data Current Forecasts

UCSD KSWC

http://ips.ucsd.edu/ http://www.spaceweather.go.kr/models/ips

Fit to CELIAS Fit to ACE L0

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a comprehensive modelingToward

that Includes 3D-MHD

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WSA-ENLIL-CONE model IPS Tomography model

Time-dependent 3D MHD model

inner boundary 21.5 solar radii to

adjustable outer boundary

Boundary condition from WSA model

3D kinematic solar wind model

Tomographically fit to ground-based

interplanetary scintillation (IPS) data

Solar wind /CME prediction models now operating at the Korean Space Weather Center

In operation

- RRA KSWC (Korea)

- UCSD CASS (USA)

- CCMC (USA)

24 CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014

In operation

- RRA KSWC (Korea)

- NOAA SWPC (USA)

- CCMC (USA)

- Met office (United Kingdom)

- BOM IPS (Australia)

Ground observation of real time IPS

- STELab, Nagoya Univ. (Japan)

- RRA, KSWC (Korea)

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KSWC Manpower for Model run• Total 7 staff working for ENLIL and IPS model run

(3 operators designated to model running and forecasting)

Forecasting Division Model Operator

Lee, J.H.

Park, S.R.

Yun, J.H.

ENLIL and IPS model run / forecast

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KSWC ENLIL model outputGenerate the output of the WSA-ENLIL-Cone model as an image

Archive the output (image and binary), the most recent results are on the web.

home

rrajeju

enlil_images

Year(YYYY)

Month(MM)

Day(DD)

Run time(YYYYmmddHH)

latest

26http://www.spaceweather.go.kr/models/enlil

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KSWC IPS model output- Run the IPS model everyday at 02:00 UT (11:00 KST)

Enlarge with animation

27http://www.spaceweather.go.kr/models/ips

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IPS-Derived Boundaries for 3D-MHD Models (Yu, H-S., et al., 2012, AIP Conference Proc. 1500, pp. 147-152.)

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• Subject: SOHO/LASCO HALO CME 140418ab (Kevin Schenk)UCMEO 93001 40418 1930/40418 61325 81742 1771/ 170// 333// 4120840418 61233 81318 33118 12036 1112/99999

(Frontsided)SOHO/LASCO observed two (2) HALO CMEs in close succession April 18, 2014. The events are first seen in C2 at 13:25 UT as a bright loop in progress over the Southwest. The front expands with extensions to a full HALO CME by 13:36 UT. The event continues into the C3 field beginning 13:30 to 17:42 UT leaving the C3 field of view at 30Rsun in the South.

April 18 2014 halo CME

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UCSD IPS Data Fit ModelEcliptic Cuts

Kinematic Model Iterative Data Fit

ENLIL 3D-MHD forward modeling from a 21.0 Rs3D time-dependent IPS tomography boundary

Density

http://spaceweather.gmu.edu/projects/enlil/ipsbd/density.html

CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014


UCSD IPS Data Fit ModelEcliptic Cuts

Kinematic Model Iterative Data Fit

ENLIL 3D-MHD forward modeling from a 21.0 Rs3D time-dependent IPS tomography boundary

Density

http://spaceweather.gmu.edu/projects/enlil/ipsbd/density.html

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bnd.nc

coho2bc

In-Situ Data

UCSD Model

UCSD Data

ucsd2bc

bnd.ncbnd.nc

wsa2bc

WSA Data

WSA Model

a3d2bc

bnd.nc

ENLILbnd.nccone2bc

At the KSWC there can be two different models (yellow) that can drive ENLIL (green) Computational system shares data sets (grey), uses couplers (blue)

ENLIL Model Drivers

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Better than IPS?

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SMEI Webpages - http://smei.ucsd.edu

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3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data All sky view to within 2º (7.5Rs) of the Sun

Cut-away and schematic Characteristics

Jackson,B.V., et al., 2004, Solar Phys., 225, 177-207.

Jackson,B.V., et al., 2010, Solar Phys., 265, 257–275.

SMEI heritage

ASHI – A Light-weight All Sky Heliospheric ImagerASHI – A Light-weight All Sky Heliospheric Imager

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ASHI tests with a cooled CCD camera

Night skythroughput tests

Optic before diamond turning

Diamond turned optic

Optic stray light tests

Buffington, A., et al., 2009, Proc. of SPIE, Vol. 7438, 74380O-1-12, doi: 10.1117/12.825362

Jackson, B.V. et al., 2014, Space Weather Workshop, NOAA

ASHI – A Light-weight All Sky Heliospheric ImagerASHI – A Light-weight All Sky Heliospheric Imager

Now “baselined” on NOAA’s DSCOVR follow-on spacecraft

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IPS-ENLIL remotely-sensed analyses:

A ground-based technique. Can provide low-resolution velocity and density analysis, and accurate forecasts of time-variable heliospheric structure.

The IPS analysis can provide input to 3D-MHD models.Better, and more abundant IPS data, should be available in the near future.

Currently both the IPS and ENLIL with cone model inputs can complement one another.

In the future higher-resolution autonomous systems are available.

Summary:

Documents

CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014 3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data B.V. Jackson, H.-S. Yu, P.P. Hick, A. Buffington University of California at San Diego,