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Case study – intermodular semiconductor. Deepwater habitat. Problem 1(i). Lottery dilution. Problem 2(i). Problem 2(ii). Flipping the probability tree. Problem 2(ii). - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Case study – intermodular semiconductor
Deepwater habitat
Problem 1(i)
NO EXPERIMENT14000 270 0,85 8K/12K 0
0,15 16K 1800 0,25 12000 600 0,5 8000 1800 0,25 4000 3000
10000 390 0,35 8K 0 0,65 12/16K 600 0,25 12000 -600 0,5 8000 600 0,25 4000 1800
6000 -600 -600 0,25 12000 -1800 0,5 8000 -600 0,25 4000 600
No Bid 0 0
• Lottery dilution
Problem 2(i)
Problem 2(ii) Flipping the probability tree
Probability
Cost (Material)
Probability
Test Result
Path Probabilit
y
Probability
Test ResultProbabilit
yCost
(Material)
Path Probabilit
y
0,25 $12000 0,9 Expensive 0,225 0,475 Expensive 0,4736842 $12000 0,225
0,1 Cheap 0,025 0,4210526 $8000 0,2
0,5 $8000 0,4 Expensive 0,2 0,1052632 $4000 0,05
0,6 Cheap 0,3 0,525 Cheap 0,047619 $12000 0,025
0,25 $4000 0,2 Expensive 0,05 0,5714286 $8000 0,3
0,8 Cheap 0,2 0,3809524 $4000 0,2
Problem 2(ii)
EXPENSIVE RESULT EXPERIMENT COST: 42
396 0,475 14000 161,68421 0,85 8K/12K -42
0,15 16K 1315,8947 0,4736842 12000 558
0,4210526 8000 1758
0,1052632 4000 2958
10000 60,631579 0,35 8K -42
0,65 12/16K 115,89474 0,4736842 12000 -642
0,4210526 8000 558
0,1052632 4000 1758
6000 -1084,105 -1084,105 0,4736842 12000 -1842
0,4210526 8000 -642
0,1052632 4000 558
No Bid -42 -42
CHEAP RESULT
14000 288 0,85 8K/12K -42
0,15 16K 2158 0,047619 12000 558
0,5714286 8000 1758
0,3809524 4000 2958
0,525 10000 608 0,35 8K -42
0,65 12/16K 958 0,047619 12000 -642
0,5714286 8000 558
0,3809524 4000 1758
6000 -242 -242 0,047619 12000 -1842
0,5714286 8000 -642
0,3809524 4000 558
No Bid -42 -42