平成28年度創成シミュレーション工学専攻修士論文梗概集

都市シミュレーション工学分野

Case Studies on Feasibility of Statutory Right Conversion Type Urban Redevelopment Projects in Kabul

27413590 ; Mohammad Kamil Halimee

1. Background and PurposeKabul, the capital and largest city of Afghanistan

is experiencing a challenging period due to the extraordinary rapid population growth caused by settlement of repatriates and the rural-urban migration. Urban structure is suffering deterioration due to high demand for space in core urban areas, dysfunctional buildings, huge number of rightful persons in buildings which made it hard to be redeveloped. Violations of construction regulations and poor maintenance of buildings makes redevelopment inevitable in Afghan cities. The redevelopment efforts for built environment in Afghan cities are mainly hindered by lack of required incentives and organizing tools to bring the individual efforts together and take them to practice. Agencies involved in managing urban sector in Kabul need alternative project systems to realize plans for creating a sound and attractive environment.

Purpose of the study is to examine the feasibility of right conversion type urban redevelopment projects through case studies by applying the social cost-benefit analysis and gaming simulations. In current research two hypothetical urban redevelopment projects located in third and fifth municipal districts of Kabul are subject to case study. The visionary redevelopment proposals are to be analyzed for 1) financial feasibility, 2) public acceptability and practicality of the project system.

2. Statutory Right Conversion type Urban Redevelopment Project (SRCURP)

Right Conversion is a system which convert the previous rights in a project area to the floor rights of the newly constructed buildings. This system has appeared in Japanese Urban Renewal Law of 1969. The purpose of this system is to facilitate the redevelopment by converting the former property rights (land/building ownership, land lease) to the floor area rights of the newly constructed, jointly owned buildings[2]. SRCURP is an optimum option for redeveloping highly utilized city central areas where the quality of the buildings and the floor area ratio is not sound. This project system is softer

than the eminent domain based redevelopment and requires less public budget; however consensus building in this kind of projects needs long time.

Kabul Municipality has been following the eminent domain-based land (re)development system since its establishment. Presently Kabul city is comprised of 76% informal development [1] where the infrastructure, public space provision and construction quality are almost totally neglected. The method being practiced in Kabul is not efficient due to the extent of redevelopment required and the low economy of the public sector to proceed with eminent domain-based redevelopment projects. Therefore, SRCURP is relevant and is perceived an appropriate alternative for inner city redevelopment in Kabul.

3. Case Study Areas3.1 Gozargah The first case study area (hereinafter referred to as “Gozargah”) is located next to the Darul Aman Main Road, 500 meters towards south from Deh Mazang square, third municipal district, Kabul.

Figure 1 Kabul City and Case Study Areas

Gozargah is composed mainly of dilapidated buildings used by vehicle mechanics as work stations and for parking vehicles. Floor area ratio of buildings is low with few habitable buildings. Proper usage of land can influence the redevelopment in city. Kabul city, central municipal districts and the case study areas are shown in Figure 1.

平成28年度創成シミュレーション工学専攻修士論文梗概集

都市シミュレーション工学分野3.2 Mirwais Maidan

The second case study area (hereinafter referred to as “Mirwais Maidan”) is located on the southwest corner of Mirwais Maidan Square, fifth municipal district, Kabul. Being one of the busiest locations of Kabul City, the area is divided by the recently constructed overpass; the longest in Kabul.

Urban redevelopment in Mirwais Maidan can affect the well-functioning of the whole city, can contribute to smooth traffic flow and create a living and employment opportunities. Mirwais Maidan is privileged being accessible to major educational and health facilities. Rise of residential population in this area will produce higher productivity in education, services and jobs.

4. Social Cost-Benefit Analysis (SCBA)The visionary redevelopment proposals were at first

analyzed through social cost benefit analysis. The results showed that projects are financially feasible in Kabul and that the project produce higher benefits in commercially used locations than residential and mixed use. Due to unavailability of data, land value in both case study areas was calculated based on the assumptions in Table 1. 4.1 Gozargah

Visionary proposal for Gozargah (Figure 2) has wider roads, Masjid, residential and commercial floors (Table 2). The proposal conserves two of the habitable buildings and redevelop the site to have full infrastructure, public space, commercial space and residential blocks.

Financial feasibility of the proposal was analyzed through social cost-benefit analysis. Results of

SCBA for Gozargah show that the redevelopment project can have a reasonable benefit for the property owners, government and the society as a whole (Table 3). Due to higher benefits for government, there is still room for it to promote the project through inputting more subsidy.

Table 1 Assumptions for Land Value Reduction Code Influential Factors

Size (22%) Access (15%) Shape (7%) View (5%) Water/Drainage (5%)A ≥750 m2 0 Major

Road0 Square 0 Open 0 Pipe/Modern 0

B ≥500 m2 2.5 Access Road

10 I Shape 3 Semi-open 2 Pipe/Tradi-tional

1

C ≥350 m2 5 Narrow Str.

12 Triangle 7 Semi-blocked

3 Well/Tradi-tional

2

D ≥250 m2 12 Dead End 15 Rectangle -3 Blocked 5 No Water 5E <250 m2 15

Table 2 Gozargah Land Use Comparison

Land Use Current Proposedm2 Share % m2 Share %

Building lots 15153.2 83.4 13677.5 70.4River bed correction 0.0 0.0 630.1 3.2Roads and Sidewalks 3011.0 16.6 4234.8 21.8Masjid (Mosque) 0.0 0.0 882.0 4.5Total Land 18164.2 100.0 19424.4 100.0

Table 3 Present Values of Costs and Benefits for GozargahProperty Owners (P)

Externalities (E)

Government (G)

Society (P+E+G)

Cos

ts

Non-Discounted 18,436,438.30 0.00 1,299,064.63 19,735,502.92Discounted Values

4% 18,436,438.30 0.00 1,299,064.63 19,735,502.9212% 18,436,438.30 0.00 1,299,064.63 19,735,502.9215% 18,436,438.30 0.00 1,299,064.63 19,735,502.92

Bene

fits Non-Discounted 22,361,117.92 47,463,676.18 1,865,264.60 71,690,058.70

Discounted Values

4% 20,674,110.51 35,181,302.71 1,631,163.26 57,486,576.4812% 17,826,146.30 35,181,302.71 1,609,518.59 54,616,967.6115% 16,908,217.71 35,181,302.71 1,602,542.29 53,692,062.71

Indi

cato

rs

B-C (Net Pres-ent Value)

4% 2,237,672.21 35,181,302.71 332,098.63 37,751,073.5612% -610,291.99 35,181,302.71 310,453.96 34,881,464.6815% -1,528,220.58 35,181,302.71 303,477.66 33,956,559.79

B/C (Benefits Cost Ratio)

4% 1.12 ∞ 1.26 2.9112% 0.97 ∞ 1.24 2.7715% 0.92 ∞ 1.23 2.72

4.2 Mirwais MaidanA commercially live locality which is being

deteriorated due to uncertainty of the municipal plans. Water supply and sewerage system is not available,

Paghman River

Paghman River

UP

UP

8Floors

8Floors

8Floors

4Floors

10Floors

UP

Habibia

High

Sch

ool

Floors2

Floors3

Darul Aman - Deh Mazang Main Road

50

Gozargah Street

0 10

.......Conserved Buildings............. Bicycle Parking

100 M

.......Plot Boundary

1st FLOOR COMMERCIAL

RESIDENITAL

COMMERCIAL

P

UPPER FLOORS RESIDENTIAL

PUBLIC FACILITY

OFFICE SPACE

OFFICE SPACE

P

RESIDENTIAL

B

B

PB

P

KABUL UNIV.

4

............. Number of Floors 8

Floors

Darul Aman - Deh Mazang Main Road

Figure 2 Visionary Proposal for Gozargah

平成28年度創成シミュレーション工学専攻修士論文梗概集

都市シミュレーション工学分野

and the streets are narrow. Mirwais Maidan has a big squatter-like bazaar (the uppermost in Figure 3) and the plots at the middle and back of the site are not accessible easily.

Mirwais Maidan offers a reasonable potential to be redeveloped through capturing the development value. For redevelopment of the site, two visionary proposals were provided. The first proposal (Plan A, Figure 4) is providing a satisfying acreage of land for park (Table 4) and the second proposal (Plan B, Figure 5) is providing wider roads.

Table 4 Mirwais Maidan Land Use ComparisonLand Use Current Plan A Plan B

(1000) m2

Share %

(1000) m2

Share %

(1000) m2

Share %

Building Lots 22.73 91.80 17.96 72.57 20.504 82.82

Roads 2.03 8.20 2.02 8.14 3.677 14.85

Masjid (Mosque)

0.00 0.00 0.65 2.64 0.576 2.33

Park 0.00 0.00 4.12 16.65 0.00 0.00

Total Land 24.76 100.00 24.76 100.00 24.76 100.00

Another difference is the support they will receive from government, Plan B is more community based with less government input to project finance. This type of projects have more application in developing countries where the government has limited financial capacity but the necessity for redevelopment in the cities is high.

Major land use in Mirwais Maidan is residential and commercial, few buildings are also used as commercial stocks (Table 7). Visionary proposals also considered residential, commercial and office usage of the site.

Table 5 Mirwais Maidan Floor Area Comparison

UsageCurrent Plan A Plan B

m2 Share % m2 Share % m2 Share %

Gross resi. floor area 8,531.21 49.24 36,000.00 51.29 16,464.00 20.04

Gross com. floor area 7,848.68 45.30 20,511.30 29.22 56,425.00 68.67

Gross office floor area 0.00 0.00 12,693.50 18.08 8,776.00 10.68

Stock (storage) 795.32 4.59 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Public floor area (Masjid) 150.50 0.87 990.00 1.41 500.00 0.61

Total floor Area 17,325.71 100.00 70,194.80 100.00 82,165.00 100.00

1

2

33

2

2

2

2

2

3

3

14

11

1

1

11

1

2 2

1

1

12

22

3

2

2

3

100 50 100 M

1

....Plot Boundary .... Number of Floors ....Residential

....Commercial

1

1

....Commercial Storehouse

Mirw

ais

Mai

dan

Ove

rpas

s

Main Road From Kampani

1

Figure 3 Mirwais Maidan Current Situation

UP

UP

UP

P

UP

UP

5Floors

15Floors

10Floors

10Floors

10Floors

5Floors

Floors3

100 M

P

1-10: COMMERCIAL

....Plot Boundary

RESIDENTIAL

.... Number of Floors 1

MASJID

P

0

....Vehicle Parking

10-15: OFFICE

RESIDENTIAL

10

COMM

ERCIAL

50

....Roads

P

RESIDENTIAL

P

COMMERCIAL

PARK

Mirw

ais

Mai

dan

Ove

rpas

s

Main Road From Kampani

CASE STUDY AREA

KABUL POLYTECHNIC UNIVERSITY

KABUL UNIVERSITY

RAHMAN BABA HS

.... Old Site

Figure 4 Visionary Proposal for Mirwais Maidan (Plan A)

UP

UP

2Floors

UP

7Floors

7Floors

7Floors

12Floors

8Floors

P

P

B

B

B

RESIDENITAL

RESIDENTIAL

RESIDENTIAL

MASJID

1-10: COMMERCIAL11-12: OFFICE

COMMERCIAL

Mirw

ais

Mai

dan

Ove

rpas

s

KABUL UNIVERSITY

100 M

....Plot Boundary .... Number of Floors 1

0

....Vehicle Parking

10 50

....RoadsP

CASE STUDY AREA

KABUL POLYTECHNIC UNIVERSITY

RAHMAN BABA HS

.... Old Site

Main Road From Kampani

Figure 5 Visionary Proposal for Mirwais Maidan (Plan B)

Stakeholders Property Owners/Developer (P) Externalities (E) Government (G) Society (P+E+G)Alternative Plans Plan A Plan B Plan A Plan B Plan A Plan B Plan A Plan B

Cos

ts [C

] Non-Discounted 30,043,131.43 40,722,384.93 0.00 0.00 3,207,952.80 1,259,555.00 33,251,084.23 41,981,939.93Discounted Values 4% 30,043,131.43 40,722,384.93 0.00 0.00 3,207,952.80 1,259,555.00 33,251,084.23 41,981,939.93

12% 30,043,131.43 40,722,384.93 0.00 0.00 3,207,952.80 1,259,555.00 33,251,084.23 41,981,939.9315% 30,043,131.43 40,722,384.93 0.00 0.00 3,207,952.80 1,259,555.00 33,251,084.23 41,981,939.93

Bene

fits [

B] Non-Discounted 46,585,533.00 56,445,632.75 62,592,210.09 86,941,853.05 3,625,644.00 1,818,944.00 137,153,030.05 145,206,429.80Discounted Values 4% 39,821,508.85 48,249,963.44 46,394,962.80 64,443,547.08 3,598,419.79 1,794,260.71 107,863,475.72 114,487,771.23

12% 29,605,948.41 35,872,220.06 28,420,470.73 39,476,611.97 3,557,303.64 1,756,982.07 72,639,864.02 77,105,814.1015% 26,635,429.69 32,272,973.72 24,399,987.85 33,892,079.45 3,545,347.73 1,746,142.05 64,072,856.88 67,911,195.23

Indi

cato

rs

B-C (Net Present

Value)

4% 9,778,377.42 7,527,578.51 46,394,962.80 64,443,547.08 540,780.31 534,705.71 74,762,704.82 72,505,831.3012% -437,183.02 -4,850,164.87 28,420,470.73 39,476,611.97 786,699.82 497,427.07 39,826,128.77 35,123,874.1715% -3,407,701.74 -8,449,411.21 24,399,987.85 33,892,079.45 803,447.47 486,587.05 31,287,825.19 25,929,255.30

B/C (Benefits Cost

Ratio)

4% 1.33 1.18 ∞ ∞ 1.12 1.42 3.24 2.7312% 0.99 0.88 ∞ ∞ 1.11 1.39 2.18 1.8415% 0.89 0.79 ∞ ∞ 1.11 1.39 1.93 1.62

Table 6 Present Values of Costs and Benefits for Both Visionary Proposals for Mirwais Maidan

平成28年度創成シミュレーション工学専攻修士論文梗概集

都市シミュレーション工学分野Besides the higher benefits for property owners

with discount rate of 4%, higher discount rates would show little benefits for property owners (Table 6). However if the project is observed from the point of view of society it still looks beneficial even with the highest discount rate of 15% in that case Plan A provides 93% benefits and Plan B provides 62%. Thus even if such projects provide less benefits for property owners, the government may promote projects for public welfare by inputing more subsidy.

5. Gaming SimulationIn order to experience the project system practically,

and observe the behavior of players towards right conversion, two games were developed.

5.1 Lets Utilize Our Land Efficiently The first game was developed for Gozargah

to examine public acceptability of the concept of right conversion. This game considered three lots of Gozargah with four right-holders (3 Land and building owners, 1 land lessee). Visionary redevelopment proposal drawings and expected right floors which were calculated based on social cost-benefit analysis, were presented to the participants. The game was played in Kabul University in two different sessions with different participants. 75% of the participants showed satisfaction to proceed with projects based on right conversion.

5.2 ColPOWERThe second game (called ColPOWER which stands

for the power of collective efforts) was developed to simulate the right conversion process. The game was played by Afghan Students in Nagoya Institute of Technology and Nagoya University.

The game was modeled based on a visionary redevelopment proposal for the real case (Mirwais Maidan, Kabul; Plan A) using the real property specification of the lots in the site. The amount of floor area that should be returned to former property owners was calculated through social cost-benefit analysis.

The right floor space was modeled as cubes with commercial units (10*22*3.5 cubic meters), residential units (7.5*16*3 cubic meters) and office space (6*22*3.5 cubic meters) scaled to 1/500.

The participants tried to set their right floor cubes in the best commercial floors. The ground floor and second floor of the commercial buildings attracted

more applicants. To make a consensus, the participants agreed to

calculate the number of their space blocks in each floor based on percentage of each property owner of the same type of property in the announced floor.

Figure 6 Right Floors Setting up in ColPOWER

The next step after setting up the right space blocks (Figure 6) was to exchange spaces individually. The participants exchanged the blocks based on the rules of the game to create a balance of the three type of land uses (commercial, residential and office space).

At the end, the right conversion table was created and all participants were satisfied.

6. ConclusionThe results of SCBA in both cases showed

satisfactory benefits for property owners, government and the society. However the benefits in Mirwais Maidan were higher than that of Gozargah due to its commercial activeness and the higher land value change expected.

Gaming simulation of the SRCURP showed that providing information can facilitate the consensus building. It was found that basically there is no legislative, financial or social impediment to implementing right conversion type urban redevelopment projects in Kabul. Adaptation of the project system is recommended for urban redevelopment of core urban areas in Kabul.

References: [1] RECS International, Yachiyo Engineering. (2011). Draft Kabul City Master Plan. JICA[2] KISHII, T. (2007). Urban Planning System in Japan. Tokyo: JICA.[3] GoIRA. (2015). State of Afghan Cities. Kabul: Government of Islamic Republic of Afghanistan.