6
(CANCER RESEARCH 50. 6520-6524, October 15. I990| Case-Control Study of Residential Radon and Lung Cancer among New Jersey Women1 Janet B. Schoenberg,2 Judith B. Klotz, Homer B. Wilcox, Gerald P. Nicholls, Maria T. Gil-del-Real, Annette Stemhagen, and Thomas J. Mason New Jersey Stale Department of Health, Trenton, New Jersey 08625 fJ. B. S., J. B. K., H. B. W., M. T. G., A. SJ; New Jersey State Department of Environmental Protection, Trenton, New Jersey 08625 [G. P. N.]; and Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19111 [T. J. M.J ABSTRACT To evaluate the association of indoor radon exposure with lung cancer risk, yearlong a track detector measurements of radon were conducted in dwellings which had been occupied for at least 10 years by 433 New Jersey female lung cancer cases and 402 controls who were subjects in a larger population-based study. Adjusted odds ratios were 1.1 (90% con fidence interval, 0.79-1.7), 1.3 (90% confidence interval, 0.62-2.9), and 4.2 (90% confidence interval, 0.99-17.5) for exposures of 1.0-1.9, 2.0- 3.9, and 4.0-11.3 pCi/liter, respectively, relative to exposures of less than 1.0 pCi/liter, showing a significant trend (1-sided /' = 0.04) with increas ing radon concentration. The trend was strongest among light smokers (less than 15 cigarettes/day, 1-sided P = 0.01). The trend for lung cancer risk with estimated cumulative radon exposure was slightly weaker (1- sided /' = 0.09). The increase in relative risk for each unit of cumulative exposure, 3.4% (90% confidence interval 0.0-8.0%) per working level month, was consistent with the range of 0.5-4.0% per working level month generally reported for underground miner studies, supporting the extrapolation of the occupational data to the residential setting. However, the possibility of selection biases, the small number of high exposures, and other uncertainties necessitate caution in interpretation of these data. INTRODUCTION Prolonged exposures to high levels of radon have been iden tified as a cause of lung cancer in underground miners, with numerous studies showing a strong and consistent dose-re sponse relationship (1, 2). Based on extrapolation from the miner data, it has been postulated that concentrations of radon found in some houses may also result in a substantial lung cancer risk (3-5). However, direct information on risk from residential radon exposures has been very limited thus far (6). Some correlation studies have reported a positive association between lung cancer mortality and average radon concentra tions, while others have reported no relationship or a negative association (6); none of these studies has taken into account characteristics of individuals such as smoking habits. Several case-control studies have supported an association between residential radon and lung cancer (7-12). However, most of these studies were small, included actual radon measurements in only a sample of subjects' houses, and/or did not account for smoking and other risk factors in great detail. A case-control study of lung cancer was conducted among New Jersey women from 1982 to 1984; extensive data on smoking, occupation, and diet were collected (13). This study was extended to include data on radon exposures, in order to evaluate the association of indoor radon with lung cancer risk. Received 4/9/90; accepted 7/17/90. The costs of publication of this article were defrayed in part by the payment of page charges. This article must therefore be hereby marked advertisement in accordance with 18 U.S.C. Section 1734 solely to indicate this fact. 1Supported in part by a special New Jersey Legislative appropriation and by National Cancer Institute Contract N01-CP-61031 and Grant R01-CA-37744. 1To whom requests for reprints should be addressed, at Chronic Disease Epidemiology Program, New Jersey State Department of Health, CN369, Tren ton, NJ 08625. MATERIALS AND METHODS The cases in the original study included all female New Jersey residents who were newly diagnosed with histologically confirmed primary cancer of the lung from August 1982 through September 1983. Population-based controls were chosen from three sources. For cases who were themselves interviewed, controls were selected from a random sample of New Jersey driver's license files (age <65) or Health Care Financing Administration files (age 65+), and were frequency matched to cases by race and age. For cases with next of kin respondents, death certificates with no mention of any respiratory disease were used for random selection of controls who were individually matched to cases by race, age, and closest date of death. Of 1306 cases and 1449 controls originally identified, 994 (76%) cases and 995 (69%) controls or their next of kin were interviewed and were potential subjects for the radon substudy. Further details on case ascertainment and control selection have been reported previously (13). The questionnaire for this study included a lifetime brand-specific smoking history, information on smoking by other household members, lifetime residential and occupational histories, and a dietary history of foods containing vitamin A. The residential history specified only the towns in which each subject had lived. For the radon substudy, subjects or their next of kin were recontacted to determine exact street addresses and dates of residence. Because the budget allowed for measurements in only one house per subject, a residence criterion was established; subjects were included in the radon substudy if they had lived in a single "index" residence for at least 10 years in the 10-30-year period prior to diagnosis or selection. This residence criterion also allowed sufficient duration of exposure and assumed a minimum 10-year period between relevant radon exposure and lung cancer diagnosis (14). The dates of residence at the index residences were validated whenever possible using tax office records (15). A yearlong a track detector measurement of radon (type SF; Ter- radex Radon Detection Products, Glenwood, IL) (16) was conducted in the living area of the index residence (usually the master bedroom) and was assumed to provide the best estimate of the average radon concentrations to which a subject had been exposed when she was a resident of this house. A second a track detector was also placed in each house, usually in the basement. For about 15% of the houses, a third « track detector was paired with one of the first two as a quality control check on the measurement precision (17), as determined by the coefficient of variation (18). Spiked detectors (n = 37; 4-5 each at eight concentrations from 0.5 to 2.1 pCi/liter) and blank detectors (n = 17) were also submitted to the laboratory for processing with study detec tors. At each residence, 4-day measurements of radon were also conducted under closed house conditions during the heating season using charcoal canisters (17) from the NJDEP.1 The charcoal canister measurements served two purposes: to provide back-up data if « track measurements were not completed; and to provide current residents with a screening measurement to identify any high radon levels which might need immediate remediation. Remediation efforts were undertaken at only one house as a result of these screening measurements; « track detector measurements completed before the remedial work were used in these analyses. Details on the comparison between canister and a track detector measurements in this study will be presented elsewhere. 3The abbreviations used are: NJDEP, New Jersey State Department of Envi ronmental Protection; OR, odds ratio; CI, confidence interval; WLM, working level month. 6520 Research. on September 23, 2017. © 1990 American Association for Cancer cancerres.aacrjournals.org Downloaded from

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(CANCER RESEARCH 50. 6520-6524, October 15. I990|

Case-Control Study of Residential Radon and Lung Cancer amongNew Jersey Women1

Janet B. Schoenberg,2 Judith B. Klotz, Homer B. Wilcox, Gerald P. Nicholls, Maria T. Gil-del-Real,

Annette Stemhagen, and Thomas J. MasonNew Jersey Stale Department of Health, Trenton, New Jersey 08625 fJ. B. S., J. B. K., H. B. W., M. T. G., A. SJ; New Jersey State Department of EnvironmentalProtection, Trenton, New Jersey 08625 [G. P. N.]; and Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19111 [T. J. M.J

ABSTRACT

To evaluate the association of indoor radon exposure with lung cancerrisk, yearlong a track detector measurements of radon were conducted indwellings which had been occupied for at least 10 years by 433 NewJersey female lung cancer cases and 402 controls who were subjects in alarger population-based study. Adjusted odds ratios were 1.1 (90% confidence interval, 0.79-1.7), 1.3 (90% confidence interval, 0.62-2.9), and4.2 (90% confidence interval, 0.99-17.5) for exposures of 1.0-1.9, 2.0-3.9, and 4.0-11.3 pCi/liter, respectively, relative to exposures of less than1.0 pCi/liter, showing a significant trend (1-sided /' = 0.04) with increas

ing radon concentration. The trend was strongest among light smokers(less than 15 cigarettes/day, 1-sided P = 0.01). The trend for lung cancerrisk with estimated cumulative radon exposure was slightly weaker (1-sided /' = 0.09). The increase in relative risk for each unit of cumulativeexposure, 3.4% (90% confidence interval 0.0-8.0%) per working levelmonth, was consistent with the range of 0.5-4.0% per working levelmonth generally reported for underground miner studies, supporting theextrapolation of the occupational data to the residential setting. However,the possibility of selection biases, the small number of high exposures,and other uncertainties necessitate caution in interpretation of these data.

INTRODUCTION

Prolonged exposures to high levels of radon have been identified as a cause of lung cancer in underground miners, withnumerous studies showing a strong and consistent dose-response relationship (1, 2). Based on extrapolation from theminer data, it has been postulated that concentrations of radonfound in some houses may also result in a substantial lungcancer risk (3-5). However, direct information on risk fromresidential radon exposures has been very limited thus far (6).Some correlation studies have reported a positive associationbetween lung cancer mortality and average radon concentrations, while others have reported no relationship or a negativeassociation (6); none of these studies has taken into accountcharacteristics of individuals such as smoking habits. Severalcase-control studies have supported an association betweenresidential radon and lung cancer (7-12). However, most ofthese studies were small, included actual radon measurementsin only a sample of subjects' houses, and/or did not account for

smoking and other risk factors in great detail.A case-control study of lung cancer was conducted among

New Jersey women from 1982 to 1984; extensive data onsmoking, occupation, and diet were collected (13). This studywas extended to include data on radon exposures, in order toevaluate the association of indoor radon with lung cancer risk.

Received 4/9/90; accepted 7/17/90.The costs of publication of this article were defrayed in part by the payment

of page charges. This article must therefore be hereby marked advertisement inaccordance with 18 U.S.C. Section 1734 solely to indicate this fact.

1Supported in part by a special New Jersey Legislative appropriation and byNational Cancer Institute Contract N01-CP-61031 and Grant R01-CA-37744.

1To whom requests for reprints should be addressed, at Chronic Disease

Epidemiology Program, New Jersey State Department of Health, CN369, Trenton, NJ 08625.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The cases in the original study included all female New Jerseyresidents who were newly diagnosed with histologically confirmedprimary cancer of the lung from August 1982 through September 1983.Population-based controls were chosen from three sources. For caseswho were themselves interviewed, controls were selected from a randomsample of New Jersey driver's license files (age <65) or Health Care

Financing Administration files (age 65+), and were frequency matchedto cases by race and age. For cases with next of kin respondents, deathcertificates with no mention of any respiratory disease were used forrandom selection of controls who were individually matched to casesby race, age, and closest date of death. Of 1306 cases and 1449 controlsoriginally identified, 994 (76%) cases and 995 (69%) controls or theirnext of kin were interviewed and were potential subjects for the radonsubstudy. Further details on case ascertainment and control selectionhave been reported previously (13).

The questionnaire for this study included a lifetime brand-specificsmoking history, information on smoking by other household members,lifetime residential and occupational histories, and a dietary history offoods containing vitamin A. The residential history specified only thetowns in which each subject had lived. For the radon substudy, subjectsor their next of kin were recontacted to determine exact street addressesand dates of residence. Because the budget allowed for measurementsin only one house per subject, a residence criterion was established;subjects were included in the radon substudy if they had lived in a single"index" residence for at least 10 years in the 10-30-year period prior

to diagnosis or selection. This residence criterion also allowed sufficientduration of exposure and assumed a minimum 10-year period betweenrelevant radon exposure and lung cancer diagnosis (14). The dates ofresidence at the index residences were validated whenever possibleusing tax office records (15).

A yearlong a track detector measurement of radon (type SF; Ter-radex Radon Detection Products, Glenwood, IL) (16) was conductedin the living area of the index residence (usually the master bedroom)and was assumed to provide the best estimate of the average radonconcentrations to which a subject had been exposed when she was aresident of this house. A second a track detector was also placed ineach house, usually in the basement. For about 15% of the houses, athird «track detector was paired with one of the first two as a qualitycontrol check on the measurement precision (17), as determined by thecoefficient of variation (18). Spiked detectors (n = 37; 4-5 each at eightconcentrations from 0.5 to 2.1 pCi/liter) and blank detectors (n = 17)were also submitted to the laboratory for processing with study detectors.

At each residence, 4-day measurements of radon were also conductedunder closed house conditions during the heating season using charcoalcanisters (17) from the NJDEP.1 The charcoal canister measurementsserved two purposes: to provide back-up data if «track measurementswere not completed; and to provide current residents with a screeningmeasurement to identify any high radon levels which might needimmediate remediation. Remediation efforts were undertaken at onlyone house as a result of these screening measurements; «track detectormeasurements completed before the remedial work were used in theseanalyses. Details on the comparison between canister and a trackdetector measurements in this study will be presented elsewhere.

3The abbreviations used are: NJDEP, New Jersey State Department of Envi

ronmental Protection; OR, odds ratio; CI, confidence interval; WLM, workinglevel month.

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RADON AND LUNG CANCER IN NEW JERSEY WOMEN

The paired a track detectors had coefficients of variation of 0.36,0.22, and 0.12 for measurements of <1.0, 1.0-1.9, and 2.0-3.9 pCi/liter, respectively; one pair was above 4.0 pCi/liter and had a differenceof 0.2 pCi/liter (15). Spiked and blank a track detectors also showedpoorer precision and accuracy in readings below 1.0 pCi/liter (15).Because of this measurement uncertainty and the large number ofreadings in this low range, data analyses were conducted using thebroad categories of < 1.0, 1.0-1.9, 2.0-3.9, and 4.0+ pCi/liter, consistent with a lognormal distribution (19). Some analyses were also conducted considering radon concentration as a continuous variable.

Cumulative radon exposure in pCi/liter-years was estimated fromthe living area radon concentrations and the number of years the subjectlived in the index residence during the period 5-30 years prior todiagnosis or selection. This time period was used because data had beenpublished (2, 20) which indicated a shorter period (5 years) betweenrelevant radon exposure and diagnosis of lung cancer than had beenassumed at the time of study design. For each year during this periodwhen the subject did not live at the index residence, an exposure of 0.6pCi/liter, the median concentration among controls, was assumed.

ORs and 90% CIs for the association of lung cancer with radonconcentration or with cumulative radon exposure were estimated bymultiple logistic regression analysis (21) using the microcomputer-based LOGRESS program (22). The significance of the trend in riskwith increasing radon exposure was evaluated using the model Zstatistic for a weighted categorical exposure variable, with a one-sidedP value. All analyses were adjusted for lifetime average number ofcigarettes smoked per day (lifetime nonsmokers; smokers of <15, 15-24, 25+ cigarettes/day). Additional categorical variables considered inthe logistic models were based on age, respondent type, race, education,county of residence, years since smoking cessation, cigarette tar content,total years smoked, high-risk occupation, and vegetable consumption.No attempt was made to adjust for possible differences in houseoccupancy, based on the occupational history. The difference in thelikelihood ratio statistics between successive models, evaluated as a x2

statistic, was used to determine the goodness of fit of these models.The best control for confounding was obtained with the model with thegreatest improvement in fit, which adjusted for number of cigarettesper day plus time since smoking cessation, age, occupation, respondenttype, and the interaction between respondent type and number ofcigarettes per day.

RESULTS

Of 994 cases and 995 controls in the original lung cancerstudy, 433 cases and 402 controls were included in the radonsubstudy (Table 1). Actual radon measurements were conductedfor 411 cases and 385 controls; living area «track measurements were completed for 346 cases and 318 controls and wereestimated from basement a track results for 27 cases and 28

Table 1 Original 994 New Jersey female lung cancer cases and 995 controls, bytheir status in the radon substudy

CasesStatusIncluded

in radonstudy"Noaddress-specificinformation*Noaddress met residencecriterion'Noradon testing at index address1*No.433140253168%44142617ControlsNo.402126256211%40132621

°Index residence tested for radon with «track detectors and/or charcoal

canisters (411 cases. 385 controls); index residence was an apartment above thesecond floor, radon exposures assumed to be <1 pCi/liter (22 cases. 17 controls).

* Respondent refused further contact after initial interview (29 cases. 27controls); respondent lost to follow-up (58 cases. 43 controls); respondent refusedaddress-specific information (31 cases. 35 controls); inadequate address-specificinformation (22 cases, 21 controls).

c Subjects did not live in any New Jersey town (164 cases. 170 controls) or

at any one New Jersey address (89 cases. 86 controls) for at least 10 years from10-30 years prior to case diagnosis or control selection.

d Index residence demolished (23 cases. 20 controls); refusal by current resident

(112 cases. 169 controls); no contact with current resident (33 cases, 22 controls).

controls or from charcoal canister results for 38 cases and 39controls. Another 22 cases and 17 controls who lived in apartments above the second floor were assumed to have radonexposures less than 1.0 pCi/liter.

The remaining 561 cases and 593 controls from the originalstudy were not included in the radon substudy because noaddress-specific information could be collected, no address met

the residence criterion, or radon tests could not be conductedat the index residence (Table 1).

The distributions of subjects in the radon substudy accordingto demographic characteristics and various risk factors areshown in Table 2. The substudy subjects were fairly representative of the women in the original study except with respect toage, race, and education. Only 35% of the original subjectsunder age 58 were included in the substudy, compared to 44%of women ages 58-71 years and 43% of women over age 71years (x2 = 12.8; P = 0.002). Similarly, inclusion of original

study subjects was 17% for nonwhites compared to 44% forwhites (x2 = 48.7; P < 0.001), and 32% for women with less

than 8 years of education compared to 41 and 51% for womenwith 8-12 or more than 12 years, respectively (x2 = 29.5; P <

0.001). In further comparisons of subjects who were includedin the substudy with those who were not included, there werefew significant differences except among heavy smokers, whoshowed some unusual risk factor distributions. For example,for the heavy smokers included in the substudy, lung cancerrisk increased with increasing vegetable consumption, which

Table 2 Characteristics of 433 cases and 402 controls in substudy of radonamong Nett' Jersey women

CasesSubgroupAge

at diagnosis(yr)°<5858-7172+Respondent

typeSelfNext

ofkinRaceWhite,

includingHispanicNonwhiteEducation

(yrcompleted)<88-1213+No.982151202461874181535278120%235028574397386428ControlsNo.782161082121903861651232119%1954275347964135830

Cigarette smokingLifetime nonsmokersSmokers (av. cigarettes/day)

15-2425+

Smokers (yr since quit smoking)0-1 (current)2-910+

Vegatable consumption, servings/month"

<3535-7475+

Occupation*

No high-riskoccupationHigh-riskoccupation

61

83178111

14

194126

213 53

289 6749 1134 8

906732

1122750

22178

28712

11824174

35083

27 83 2156 209 5217 110 27

8119

36339

9010

" Cutpoints based on distribution of controls in original study (1st, 2nd + 3rd.

4th quartiles).* Ever employed in any occupational group shown to have a smoking-adjusted

risk of 1.5 or greater in original study (a posteriori definition).

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RADON AND LUNG CANCER [N NEW JERSEY WOMEN

was opposite to the pattern observed for heavy smokers notincluded in the substudy as well as for most other subgroups.

The median length of residence at the index address was 26years for cases and 27 years for controls. Considering the periodfrom 5 to 30 years prior to diagnosis or selection, the medianresidence time was 20 years for cases and 21 years for controls;only 18% of cases and 21% of controls lived at the indexresidence for less than 15 years of this period. Validation ofresidential histories was conducted for the index residence ofall but 17% of the cases and 15% of the controls. Unresolveddiscrepancies between the tax office date of purchase and thereported year of first residence were >5 years for only 2% ofcases and 2% of controls.

Table 3 shows the case-control distributions of index residence radon concentrations, as well as adjusted ORs at eachexposure level. The number of subjects with high exposures wasvery small, and none of the ORs was statistically significant.However, lung cancer risk increased with radon and showed astatistically significant trend. When the small numbers of subjects in the 2.0-3.9 and 4.0-11.3 pCi/liter groups were combined, the OR was 1.8 (90% CI, 0.89-3.5). Adjusting only forthe number of cigarettes smoked per day showed fairly similarresults, with a slightly weaker trend (P = 0.068) based on anOR of 3.5 (90% CI, 0.82-15.2) at exposures of 4.0-11.3 pCi/liter.

Analyses by separate smoking groups showed some differences in the patterns of radon-related risk (Table 4). For lifetimenonsmokers, the pattern was inconsistent; taking spouse smoking into account did not result in any changes in the non-smokers' pattern of radon-related risk. The ORs increased

significantly with radon exposure for smokers of less than 15cigarettes/day and to a lesser extent for smokers of 15-24cigarettes/day. Smokers of 25+ cigarettes/day showed a patternof decreasing ORs with increasing radon. For all smokers

Table 3 Lung cancer OR (90% CI) for New Jersey women by yearround livingarea radon concentration':1'

Radon (pCi/liter)

Cases

No. 3

Controls

No. % Adjusted OR*

1.0-1.92.0-3.94.0-11.3

Trend (1-sided lvalue):

342 79.0 324 80.6 1.067 15.5 66 16.4 1.1(0.79-1.7)'18 4.2 10 2.5 1.3(0.62-2.9)6 1.4 2 0.5 4.2(0.99-17.5)

0.040" Vearrotind living area measurements for 346 cases. 318 controls; estimates

of yearround living area concentrations for 87 cases. 84 controls."Adjusted for smoking (lifetime nonsmokers; smokers by lifetime average

number of cigarettes/day and years since quit smoking); age: occupation; respondent type: and interaction terms between respondent type and number of cigarettes/day.

' Numbers in parentheses. 90% CI.

Table 4 Lung cancer OR" by yearround living area radon concentrations for New

Jersey female lifetime nonsmokers and smokers hy average cigarettes/day

Radon(pCi/liter)<I.O

1.0-1.92.0-11.3Trend'Lifetime

nonsmokers1.0(48.168)*

0.9(11.39)1.2(2,6)P

= 0.390Smokers

(cigarettes/day)<151.0(61,77)

1.7(16, 13)NC* (6,0)/>=

0.01115-241.0(139,55)

1.1 (28, 10)2.4(11.2)/>

= 0.13825+1.0(94,

24)0.8(12,4)0.4 (5, 4)

°OR adjusted by years since quit smoking (except nonsmokers), age, occupa

tion, and respondent type.* Numbers in parentheses, number of cases and controls.c NC, OR could not be calculated because of 0 exposed controls.**One-sided P value; for 25+ cigarettes/day smokers. 7. value for trend term

was negative (-0.97), 2-sided P = 0.332.

combined, the ORs were 1.0, 1.3, and 2.0 for exposures of lessthan 1.0, 1.0-1.9, and 2.0-11.3 pCi/liter, respectively.

Lung cancer risks also increased with increasing estimatedcumulative radon exposure (Table 5), but the trend was slightlyweaker than for radon concentration. The OR for 100-155pCi/liter-years, although statistically significant, was based ononly 4 cases and 1 control. When the small numbers of subjectswith 50-99 and 100-155 pCi/liter-years were combined, theOR was 1.4 (90% CI, 0.65-3.0). Patterns of risk by separatesmoking groups (data not shown) were similar to those forradon concentration.

When analyses were limited to the 346 cases and 318 controlswith actual living area «track measurements, the trends wereslightly weaker (P = 0.085 for radon concentration and P =0.192 for cumulative radon exposure). When a continuousexposure variable was used in the models in place of theweighted categorical term, the trends were also slightly weaker(P = 0.074 for radon concentration, and P = 0.111 for cumulative radon exposure).

In order to compare the results of this study with data fromthe miner studies, the continuous cumulative exposure analyseswere used to calculate the increase in risk per pCi/liter-year,and the corresponding increase in risk per WLM (assuming80% occupancy and 50% equilibrium between radon and itsdecay products, 1 pCi/liter-year equals 0.2 WLM). This relativerisk coefficient was 3.4% (90% CI, 0.0-8.0%) per WLM for allsubjects combined, 3.6% (90% CI, 0.0-9.3%) per WLM forsmokers, and 2.0% CI, 0.0-10.2%) for nonsmokers.

Analyses conducted by lung cancer histológica! type alsoshowed the pattern of increasing risk with increasing radon,except for squamous cell carcinoma. For radon concentration,the trend was strongest for large cell undifferentiated carcinomas (P = 0.027); while for cumulative radon exposure, thetrend was strongest for small cell undifferentiated carcinomas(P= 0.079).

DISCUSSION

In this case-control study of lung cancer among New Jerseywomen, risk estimates showed a significant trend with increasing residential radon concentration, even after adjusting fordetailed smoking and occupational histories as well as for otherfactors. Most of the earlier case-control studies which alsosuggested a radon-lung cancer association had used housingcharacteristics as surrogates for radon exposure and had conducted measurements only in a sample of houses (7, 9, 11-12).

Table 5 Lung cancer OR (90% CI) for New Jersey women by estimatedcumulative radon exposure"

Cumulative rac(pCi/liter-yr<25

25-4950-99100-155Cases

Ion1No.36156

1247083.4

12.92.80.9ControlsNo.340

5291%84.6

12.92.20.2Adjusted

OR*1.01.

2(0.83-1.9)'0.94(0.41-2.2)7.2(1.0-50.3)

Trend (1-sided P value): 0.090a Estimated cumulative radon exposure from 5-30 years prior to case diagnosis

or control selection; assumes exposure of 0.6 pCi/liter (median radon concentration for controls) for all years in this period when subject did not live at indexresidence.

* Adjusted for smoking (lifetime nonsmokers; smokers by lifetime average

number of cigarettes/day and years since quit smoking): age; occupation: respondent type; and interaction terms between respondent type and number of cigarettes/day.

' Numbers in parentheses. 90% CI.

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RADON AND LUNG CANCER IN NEW JERSEY WOMEN

Two small studies included measurements for most or all subjects, 19 cases and 159 controls in one study (8) and 27 casesand 49 controls in the other (10).

The radon exposure data in this study were based on actualmeasurements for 411 cases and 385 controls, generally yearlong a track detectors in the living areas of long-term residences. However, a weakness of any retrospective study of thistype is that exposure data are collected in the present time,although the exposure actually occurred over a longer periodin the past. Major changes in house construction, heating,ventilation, and occupants' activity could cause inaccuracies in

the exposure estimates. For example, improved insulation andother energy conservation measures may have increased theradon concentrations to varying extents. Conversion fromforced air to hot water heating may have decreased the radonconcentrations in the living area. Differences in the past andpresent degree of ventilation of houses may also result inmeasured concentration which differ from actual exposures.Some subjects may have spent more time on floors with higherradon concentrations, although comparison of basement/firstfloor and basement/second floor radon ratios suggest that therewas not a substantial systematic difference between concentrations on the first and second floors (15). Altogether, theseexposure uncertainties provide another rationale, in addition tothe lower precision of measurements under 1 pCi/liter, for theuse of categorical rather than continuous analyses.

There are several other reasons for interpreting the data inthis study cautiously, including the possibility of selectionbiases, the small number of subjects with high radon exposures,and the incomplete cumulative exposure assessments. The original population-based samples of 1306 eligible cases and 1449eligible controls were reduced to 995 cases and 994 controlswho were interviewed and further reduced to 433 cases and 402controls whose data were analyzed in the radon substudy. Thesubstudy subjects were not completely representative of allthose interviewed. The younger, nonwhite, and less highlyeducated subjects more often were not included in the substudybecause they did not meet the residence criterion. Heavy smokers included in the substudy showed unusual risk factor distributions, for example, with respect to vegetable consumption.We do not know if any of these differences resulted in a substudysample which was biased with respect to radon distributions.

The small number of residences in this study with highyearround radon concentrations is attributable to several factors: (a) the original case-control study was population basedand included more subjects from densely populated countiesand from urban areas which in New Jersey tend to have lowradon levels; (b) because of the residence criterion, index houseswere at least 25 years old at the time of the radon measurements,and most were 41-90 years old; a statewide NJDEP survey ofradon in New Jersey (23) found the highest concentrations inhouses which were less than 10 years old, and the lowestconcentrations in houses which were 41-90 years old; (c) charcoal canister (screening) results from this study and from theNJDEP survey suggest that about 14% of New Jersey residentslive in houses with basement heating season concentrations ofradon above 4 pCi/liter. However, in this study, the ratio ofyearround living area a track to basement screening measurements decreased as the screening concentrations increased (15).Therefore, the percentage of subjects with living area annualexposures above 4 pCi/liter was only about 1%.

Because of the low exposure distribution, the risk estimatesfor concentrations of 4-11.3 pCi/liter or cumulative exposures

of 100-155 pCi/liter-years have very wide confidence intervals.It may be more appropriate to consider the ORs of 1.8 for theconcentration interval 2.0-11.3 pCi/liter and 1.4 for the exposure interval 50-155 pCi/liter-years, inasmuch as they are basedon slightly larger numbers and their confidence intervals arenarrower. Nevertheless, all of the risk estimates are relativelystable; adjustment for several other factors in addition to number of cigarettes per day resulted in only slight changes in theORs or in the trend statistics. This finding is important becausemost of the earlier case-control studies were not able to takeinto account detailed aspects of smoking or other possible lungcancer risk factors, such as occupation and diet.

The small numbers of subjects with high measurements alsolimit the conclusions that can be drawn from analyses ofsubgroups. This applies particularly to the different patterns ofradon-related risk among smoking subgroups. The possibilityof selection biases among heavy smokers and the possibility ofmisclassification of smoking by next of kin respondents (13)also mean that apparent differences in risk according to smoking could be spurious. Nonetheless, some evidence from otherstudies is consistent with at least a weaker radon-related effectin heavy smokers. Experiments with beagles showed protectiveeffects of high doses of tobacco smoke for radon-induced lungcancer, possibly because less a radiation could reach the bronchial epithelium through the thickened mucus layer (24). In theColorado Plateau uranium miner studies, cohort members wereusually not heavy smokers (25, 26). In addition, one residentialradon case-control study also found a slightly stronger radon-lung cancer association for smokers of less than 10 cigarettes/day than for heavier smokers ( 12).

The OR for radon exposures of 2.0-11.3 pCi/liter was 1.2for lifetime nonsmokers, compared to 2.0 for smokers, consistent with other analyses (27) which suggest that smoking prevention or cessation is a key factor in control of radon healtheffects. However, the small number of lifetime nonsmokers inthis study is insufficient to rule out a significant radon hazardfor this group.

The study findings do not suggest that the radon associationis restricted to any single histológica! type, such as small cellcarcinoma. However, the small numbers, the absence of auniform pathology slide review, and some evidence suggestingthe possibility of misclassification by histológica! type (13) alsolimit the conclusions that can be drawn.

In the miner studies, lung cancer risk varied directly withcumulative radon exposure (1-2, 6). In this study, the trendswith cumulative radon exposure were slightly weaker than thosefor radon concentration. This may be due to the incompletecumulative exposure assessments and the use of a conservativeexposure estimate for those years when the subject did not livein the index residence. Exposure could have been misclassified,particularly for the 15-16% of the subjects who lived in theindex residence for less than 15 years of the period from 5-30years prior to diagnosis or selection. Additional houses whichwere also residences of the subjects during this 25-year periodare now being tested for radon as part of a second phase of thisstudy; more complete cumulative exposure assessments forthese subjects might partially correct this misclassification.

Radon exposure during remaining lifetime years (beyond the25-year period) may also have contributed to lung cancer risk.Analyses including all available data on the time window 5-40years and 5+ years did not appreciably alter the relative riskcoefficients. However, relatively few subjects had completemeasurements for these longer time periods.

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RADON AND LUNG CANCER IN NEW JERSEY WOMEN

Edling et al. (28) used their residential radon data to calculatean attributable risk coefficient for nonsmokers of 5-7 cases/WLM/million persons at risk, which was within the range of5-50 cases reported for the miner studies. In our study, therelative risk coefficient of 3.4%/WLM was also within the usualoccupational range of 0.5-4.0% (5, 6). Therefore, the findingsof increased lung cancer risk with increasing residential radonseem to be consistent with the miner studies and add supportto the extrapolation of the occupational data to the residentialsetting. However, because of the limitations and uncertaintiesdiscussed above, the findings of this study need to be corroborated by other residential radon studies currently under wayworldwide.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

We thank Zdenec Hrubec (National Cancer Institute) and MaryCahill (New Jersey State Department of Environmental Protection) forcollaboration and advice during the course of this study; William Parkinand Rebecca Zagraniski (New Jersey State Department of Health) foradministrative support and manuscript reviews; and Karen Tucillo(New Jersey State Department of Environmental Protection), JoanneBill and Asora Carpenter (New Jersey State Department of Health),and other field staff for assistance with data collection. We also thankVictor Archer (University of Utah), Olav Axelson (University of Lin-koping. Sweden), and Jonathan Samet (University of New Mexico) forreviewing the initial technical report on this study.

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1990;50:6520-6524. Cancer Res   Janet B. Schoenberg, Judith B. Klotz, Homer B. Wilcox, et al.   among New Jersey WomenCase-Control Study of Residential Radon and Lung Cancer

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