Procter & Gamble © 2009

CASC 20th Anniversary

MegaFlops to ExaPlops

Washington D.C.Wednesday September 23,

2009

Procter & Gamble © 2009

The Story Line…

• Who is P&G?• Why does P&G need HPC?• Background on P&G HPC Capability• P&G’s Journey to creating

Shareholder value with HPC– MegaFlop Era– TeraFlop Era– …and Beyond

Procter & Gamble © 2009

Investors Know P&G By…

• Sales: $79 Billion FY June 30th, 2009

• Net Earnings: $13.4 Billion

• the Worlds largest Consumer Goods Company– Market Cap ~ 167 billion COB Tuesday 9/22/09.

– Three billion times a day, P&G brands touch the lives of people around the world

• P&G builds lasting shareholder value– P&G has paid Dividends (without interruption) since 1890 – 53 consecutive years of increasing dividend payments.– Invest over $2.2 Billion/yr in R&D

• 28 R&D Centers in 10 countries on 4 continents.

Procter & Gamble © 2009

300+ World Brands…

Health Care

Fabric Care & Home Care

Beauty Baby Care & Family Care

Snacks, & Pet Care

Blades & RazorsDuracell & Braun

Consumers Know Us by…

Procter & Gamble © 2009

23 Billion $ Brands…

Health Care

Fabric Care & Home Care

Beauty Baby Care & Family Care

Snacks, Coffee & Pet Care

Blades & RazorsDuracell & Braun

Procter & Gamble © 2009

2nd moment of Truth•Products must perform as expected (advertised) when used.•Performance … leveraging Fundamental Science & Engineering Contradictions.

Materials … strong but soft—even wet, stretch not break, breath but contain, break…not tear.

Packages … creative design is key, strong but light, never leak but open easily.

Liquids … mixtures can’t separate, dispense easily… but stay where applied.

Procter & Gamble © 2009

We make billionsbillions of products a year…

Scale: Sell a Billion $

And sell them for < $10 !

Procter & Gamble © 2009

“Learning” Loop

•Fix it

Build it

•Crash it

Innovation Cycle

•Fly it

Design it

• Costs too much:-One-time-use Equipment

-Testing Infrastructure

• Takes too long:-Cycles of Prototypes

-Development is Sequential

Outcomes

Products are not innovative:

Procter & Gamble © 2009

The HPC Business Rationale

• Replace ‘Slow & Expensive’ learning Cycles with ‘Faster & Cheaper’ Virtual ones.

• Perceived Barrier to do this: – Is the Virtual REAL Enough?

• HPC enables the pursuit of the necessary realism to shape decisions.

Procter & Gamble © 2009

…Atoms to the Enterprise

Supply Chain Through-put & Reliability

Mechanical &Converting

Process

Product/Device/Package

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1. Translate Business Challenge intoScience question

2. Express Science in Equations

M&S Work Process

The modeling process is an iterative one

What if ? , Why not ?,

How much?....

L

p22

41

Shape Decisions

Apply & Deploy:-reframe the question-guide the choices-confirm the situation-stop the project

Display & Validate

Display results For non-expertunderstanding

Solve Equations

1. Solve Equations

2. Build SimulationGather

Input Data

Consumer, ReliabilityMaterial Properties,Geometry etc.

Define Problem

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Modeling of formulations shows the spontaneous formation of vesicles.

Attempted fusion of two vesicles (cross section).

Spontaneous vesicle formation

10 nmVesicles…

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Diaper Trim Removal

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Make a 109 Pringles?

How long does it Take to make a

Billion Pringles?

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…Aerodynamics are Relevant

Make a Billion Pringles…

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Liquid Bottle Drop

WhatYou Don’t In WalMart

Or Your LaundryRoom!

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FSI Simulation

MaterialPropertiesAre TheKey ToPredicting Reality!

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Gigaflops

Kilaflops

Megaflops

Computing Hardware Performance‘Moore’s Law’

SNL ‘Red Storm’

2000

1015 Petaflops

1012 Teraflops

1990 2010

‘peta-Scale’

LANL“Blue Mountain”

LLNL ASCI ‘White’

P&G’s1st, 2nd, & 3rd

Generations

U.S. DOE/NSF ‘Leadership’ Class Machines

Procter & Gamble © 2009

P&G HPC

25

20

15

10

5

1

TERAFLOPS

$1.50

$1.00

$0.50

$0.25$0.15

Cost/CPU-hr

2003 201020082004-07

Procter & Gamble © 2009

The Evolution

Of M&S Application

And Business

Value

Pathology

“Virtual”Trial & Error

“Analysis Led” Discovery

Explains ‘why’ existing products & systems work…or don’t work

Predicts ‘why’ designs work…or don’t work (in systems that don’t exist yet)

Defines the option space ‘where’ designswork…or don’t work

……How do we USE the PowerHow do we USE the Power

Procter & Gamble © 2009

The Evolution

Of Computing

Pathology

“Virtual”Trial & Error

“Analysis Led” Discovery

The Megaflop to Gigaflop era

The Giga to Tera flop era

Tera To ExaflopAnd Beyond

For P&G how ComputingFor P&G how Computing

Procter & Gamble © 2009

Comments on the Capacity vs. Capability

DebatesStochastics, DOE, & the ‘FLOOD’ of

repetitive Case Studies.VS.

The ‘Heroic’ calculation of Billion elements/atoms/particles revealing a fundamental understanding that is

practically not possible to observe in the real world.

Procter & Gamble © 2009

Pursuing Realism???

– Solve ‘Bigger’ more complex Problems (Billion Elements, Billion Atoms/Molecules…etc.)

– do parametric studies vs. point estimates (Stochastic)

– Reach more analysts … Automating what it takes an expert to do today

Procter & Gamble © 2009

The Challenges

• Application Software– Parallelism

• Spatial AND – Is Temporal Decomposition Possible?

– FAST Multi-physics Integration– The path from Basic Research to Commercial

• The DATA management issue…• Education …

– Engineering & Science Graduates that are ‘computational’ aware (BS/MS)