CARICOM. Background & Context Energy Statistics Energy Modelling Energy Planning Discussions CARICOM

SEMINAR ON THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS 2008 (SNA 2008)

14-16 JUNE 2010,JOLLY BEACH, RESORT,

ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA

CARICOM

CARICOM REGIONAL ENERGY INFORMATION

FORUM

Devon O. Niel Gardner, Ph.D.

9 December 2013Courtleigh Hotel & Suites, Kingston, Jamaica

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CONTENT OF PRESENTATION

• Background & Context• Energy Statistics• Energy Modelling• Energy Planning• Discussions

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Various paths of energy from source to service; lines indicate possible energy pathways.

PRIMARY ENERGY SOURCE

KEY TO FIGURE

ENERGY CARRIER

CONVERSION TYPE

USEABLE ENERGY FLOW

ENERGY SERVICES

Fossil Fuels BioenergySolar

EnergyWind

EnergyHydro Energy

Ocean Energy

Liquid Fuel

Solid Fuel

Gaseous Fuel Electricity

Heat based ‑Energy

Services

Heat based ‑Energy

Services

Direct Heating & Lighting Services

Direct Heating & Lighting Services

Electrical Energy

Services

Electrical Energy

Services

Mechanical Energy

Services

Mechanical Energy

Services

Thermal Conversion

WorkWork

Kinetic Conversion

Geothermal Energy

HeatHeat

Integrated Assessment Models e.g. AIM

Economic Models

e.g. GEMINI-E3, E3MG

Energy System Models

e.g. MARKAL, MESSAGE,

LEAP

Engineering Models

e.g. RETScreen, eQuest

Climate Models

Sociopolitics

Scenario

Policy

Resources

Local statistic

s

Energy System Model

Energy & Emissions

Global statistics

StatisticsReport

s

Expert Knowledge

Reference

Technology

Database

Literature

Stakeholders Meetings

Experts

Other system models

Demand Projection

s

Assumptions

Outputs from Macros & Demand Models Constraint

s

Energy Security

Policy Framewor

k

Fitting the puzzle…

BACKGROUND & CONTEXT

What are the questions to be answered?• Who is consuming energy?• Who is producing energy?• Who imports and exports energy commodities?• What are the characteristics of transactions

between energy producers and consumers?

• ENERGY STATISTICS• ENERGY MODELLING• ENERGY PLANNING

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ENERGY STATISTICS

Energy statistics refers to collection, compilation, analysis and dissemination of data on traditional primary energy commodities (such as coal, crude oil, natural gas); primary renewable sources (such as biomass, geothermal, wind, solar); and electricity when used for the production of energy.

Energy statistics is more specific than (and is different from) other fields of economic statistics as energy commodities can undergo far greater number of transformations (flows) than other economic commodities; in these transformations energy is conserved, as defined by and within the limitations of the first and second laws of thermodynamics.

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• Global Fossil Fuel Trends: Historical, current and projected data on the production, distribution and supply of fossil fuels.

• Global Renewable Energy Trends: Historical, current and projected data on renewable energy use.

• Fuel Imports: Oil, gas, coal, biomass and any other fuel imports.

• Petroleum Refining: Fuel production data, to include the variety of petroleum fuels and derivatives produced.

• Biofuel Production: Biofuel production data, to include sources of small an large scale biomass, liquid biofuel and biogas supply.

• Electricity Profile: Generation, transmission and distribution, and where possible, end-use data – electricity importation is also important, where applicable. Information should be disaggregated to include: renewable and non-renewable electricity generation; load factor for various generation sources; peak and off-peak electricity consumption; etc.

• Heat Production: Any production of process heat for industrial, commercial or domestic use should be tracked.

Some Important Data

• Commercial and Industrial Energy Consumption: Commercial and industrial activities and the associated electricity and liquid fuel consumption.

• Self-generation and Generation-offset Distribution: Capture the penetration of small distributed generation technologies, such as solar PV panels, and generation-offset systems, such as solar water heaters.

• Social and Demographic Surveys: Household sample surveys may capture domestic energy demand as well as make semi-quantitative determination of consumer behaviour.

• Motor Vehicle Imports: Number and type of vehicles imported.

• Transportation Trends: Movement of people and goods within the country, to include mode of transportation, as well as peak and off-peak trends.

• Other Relevant Information: Renewable Energy Assessments; Technology Roadmap; Land-use Use and Spatial Interaction Plans; Industrial Plans.

Some Important Data

ENERGY STATISTICS CARICOM

Database Agency Area served

Energy Statistics Database

UNSD Global

Energy Database EIA United States

ESD EuroStat European Union

SETIS JRC

SIEE OLADE Latin America & the CaribbeanSIEN

CIPPET CEIS CARICOM

CEEBIP

CIPORE

Table: Some Key Energy Information Systems

SIEE/SIEN The OLADE Energy Information Systems (SIEE and

SIEN) are modern computing platforms, developed with funding from IADB, which integrates and manages statistics, prospective energy, socio-economic, legal information, supply and demand for services and document the energy sector in the Member Countries of standardized and easy distribution. The tool optimizes and facilitate the provision of information to the Member Countries of OLADE.

The computing platform is intuitive and can be configured so as to have member countries organize energy information; the tool allows member states to set up, organize, manage and disseminate information in their respective energy sectors to the regional (CARICOM) level.

SIEE/SIEN Integrates information from the energy chain by

establishing uniform criteria for standardization, which significantly improves reliability of the results.

Presents historical data for major variables in the energy sector, from which behaviour trends can be identified and future behaviour predicted.

Optimize the timing and periodicity for energy information reported by the country.

Contains flags that combines economic and energy information analysis.

Integrates with other platforms.

CIPPET/CIPORE The Caribbean Energy Information System

(CEIS) was established to provide a regional information service through networks in Caribbean, mostly CARICOM, countries.

The “network” operates through 18 National Focal Points (NFPs) identified by governments. Each NFP co-ordinates a local committee that identifies, collects and disseminates information on the national energy sector; they also provide feedback to the CEIS on the network’s activities.

Data is uploaded into the CIPPET/CIPORE database from the CEIS Secretariat.

CIPPET/CIPORE CEIS has a wealth of historical data on

energy related matters on the Caribbean.

The CEIS network within CARICOM is fairly strong; this will no doubt allow for “back-stopping” the data collection effort within member states.

There is potential for the CEIS databases to link with other information systems, as well as planning tools.



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ENERGY MODELLING

• Energy models are being increasingly used to provide insights into how energy systems may evolve in the years ahead.

• The formulation of policy and strategy requires sound indications of what to expect in the long-term. It also benefits from a greater transparency of how key elements of the complex energy system influence energy demand and supply trends – macroeconomic trends, demographics, energy prices, resource availability, policy and regulatory developments, technology, etc. Understanding the analysis, scenarios and results of the model would enhance regional, national and local energy planning.

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ENERGY MODELLING

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Tool Focus Area served

MARKAL Energy planning 63 countries

TIMES Energy planning 63 countries

AIM Integrated planning Asia-Pacific

LEAP Sustainable energy planning

150 countries

OSEMOSYS Energy planning ---

EN-PEP Energy planning 70 countries

MAED Energy planning 80 countries

MESSAGE Energy planning 80 countries

FINPLAN Energy planning 80 countries

SIMPACTS Energy planning 80 countries

ISED Energy planning 80 countries

WASP Electricity planning 150 countries

SUPER Electricity planning 27 countries

Table: Some Key Energy Modelling Tools

GLOBAL USAGE OF MARKAL/TIMES

Contracting PartiesOther users

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ENERGY MODELLING

DESIRED CHARACTERISTICS OF ENERGY MODELLING TOOLS:

Robust Navigation & Usability Internet Integration Flexibility Functionality Data exportability Integration with other applications Customizability Speed Technical support & capacity building Cost

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ENERGY PLANNING CARICOM



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DISCUSSIONS

• Modern energy systems are characterized by increasingly complex interactions between energy supplier and distributor, and end-user.

• Quality data and tools are desired

• Machine-accessible data has the potential to greatly enhance the productivity of modellers

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DISCUSSIONS

Key conditions:

• Models must be available and appropriate for the environment

• Suitable data must be available for input into the model and for validating results

• Models should be operated by persons trained in use of the tools and in interpreting the outcomes for local conditions

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“For the things we have to learn before we can do them,

we learn by doing them.”‑Aristotle

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THANKS for your attention!

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CARICOM. Background & Context Energy Statistics Energy Modelling Energy Planning Discussions CARICOM